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Introducing
Meteorology
Other Titles in this Series
Introducing Astronomy
Introducing Geology ~ A Guide to the World of Rocks (Third Edition)
Introducing Geomorphology
Introducing Geophysics (forthcoming 2020)
Introducing Metamorphism
Introducing Mineralogy
Introducing Natural Resources
Introducing Oceanography
Introducing Palaeontology ~ A Guide to Ancient Life
Introducing Sea Level Change
Introducing Sedimentology
Introducing Stratigraphy
Introducing Tectonics, Rock Structures and Mountain Belts
Introducing the Planets and their Moons
Introducing Volcanology ~ A Guide to Hot Rocks
Half-title frontispiece: A tornado-bearing storm supercell near Forgan, Oklahoma, on 17 May 2019. (Photo: Simon Lee.)
Introducing
Meteorology
A Guide to Weather
Second Edition
Jon Shonk
DUNEDIN
EDINBURGH LONDON
First published in 2020 by
Dunedin Academic Press Ltd
ISBNs
9781780460918 (Paperback)
9781780466439 (ePub)
9781780466446 (Amazon Kindle)
9781780466453 (PDF)
The right of Jon Shonk to be identified as the author of this work has
been asserted by him in accordance with sections 77 and 78 of the
Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988
Contents
v
vi Contents
Glossary 141
Further Reading 154
Acknowledgements
Acknowledgements
First, I wish to thank Ross Reynolds and Pete Inness for encouraging me to write the first
edition of this book – their help and support throughout the writing process was invaluable,
as has their willingness to check through various chapters of the manuscript. I also thank
Keith Shine for his careful review of Chapter 16, Mike Stroud and Giles Harrison for permit-
ting me to take photos and use data from the Atmospheric Observatory at the University of
Reading, and David McLeod and Anne Morton at Dunedin Academic Press for their support
and guidance. I must also thank all of the following for agreeing to look through a chapter or
two: Lesley Allison, Laura Baker, Andy Barrett, Sylvia Bohnenstengel, Kirsty Hanley, Emma
Irvine, Nick Klingaman, Keri Nicoll, Daniel Peake, Sam Ridout, Ali Rudd, Claire Ryder, Jane
Shonk, Peter Shonk, Claire Thompson, Rob Thompson, Andy Turner and Curtis Wood.
Finally, I thank all my friends and family for being supportive during preparation of both the
first and second editions, especially my wife, Jess.
This book is dedicated to the memory of David Grimes.
Figure Credits
Figures 0.1, 11.2: NASA Earth Observatory/NOAA.
Figures 1.1, 1.2, 1.5, 2.1, 2.2, 3.7ABCGH, 7.4AB, 7.5, 7.7A, 8.5B, 12.1ABC, 13.5C, 15.5AD: © Jon Shonk.
Figure 1.3: © Tina Dippe.
Figures 1.4, 5.5, 6.5, 7.7BCD, 8.4AB, 13.5B: photographs Copyright © Stephen Burt.
Figures 2.3ABCD, 3.2AB, 3.3, 3.4, 3.5AB, 3.6AB, 4.1, 4.2, 8.1, 10.9: courtesy of the Department of
Meteorology, University of Reading.
Figure 2.4: NOAA Photo Library/US Weather Bureau.
Figures 2.5, 2.6: NOAA Photo Library.
Figure 2.7: US Army Photo.
Figures 3.1, 14.1, 15.1, 15.2: European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF).
Figures 3.7DF: © Mike Blackburn.
Figure 3.7E: © Peter Smith.
Figure 3.8: NOAA (National Data Buoy Center).
Figures 4.3, 4.4, 10.2, 15.3: © British Crown Copyright, Met Office.
Figure 4.7ABC: ©2019, EUMETSAT.
Figure 5.1: NASA Earth Observatory/JSC Gateway to Astronaut Photography of Earth.
Figure 6.6: NOAA Photo Library/Wilson Bentley.
vii
viii Figure Credits
Figure 7.8: adapted from Trenberth KE, Fasullo JT and Kiehl J (2009): Earth’s global energy budget. Bulletin
of the American Meteorological Society 90: 311–324.
Figure 8.5A: © Daniel Peake.
Figure 8.5C: © Jonathan Beverley.
Figures 8.7, 9.7AB: European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF); plots made using
ERA-Interim data. Reference: Dee DP, Uppala SM, Simmons AJ, Berrisford P, Poli P, Kobayashi S and
Co-authors (2011): The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation
system. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 137: 553–597.
Figure 10.4: adapted from Bjerknes J and Solberg H (1922): Life Cycle of Cyclones and the Polar Front
Theory of Atmospheric Circulation. Geofysiske Publikationer 1: 3–18.
Figures 10.5, 13.4, 13.8: NASA Earth Observatory.
Figure 10.11, 12.2, 13.2A: © Dundee Satellite Receiving Station.
Figures 11.4, 13.2B: NASA Earth Observatory/NOAA/US Department of Defense.
Figure 11.8: based on Halpert MS and Ropelewski CF (1992): Surface Temperature Patterns Associated with
the Southern Oscillation. Journal of Climate 5, 577–593; Ropelewski CF and Halpert MS (1987): Global and
Regional Scale Precipitation Patterns Associated with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. Monthly Weather
Review 115, 1,606–1,626.
Figures 12.3, 12.6B: © Daniel Gregory.
Figures 12.6A, Half-title Frontispiece: © Simon Lee.
Figure 12.6C: © Beth Saunders.
Figure 13.5A: © Claire Delsol.
Figure 13.9: © Wagner Nogueira Neto.
Figure 15.4: NASA Earth Observatory/USGS Earth Observing-1.
Figures 15.5B: © Jane Shonk.
Figure 15.5C: © Jane Shonk; courtesy of Jason James.
Figure 16.1: data from the Climate Research Unit, University of East Anglia. Reference: Morice CP, Kennedy
JJ, Rayner NA and Jones PD (2012): Quantifying uncertainties in global and regional temperature change
using an ensemble of observational estimates: the HadCRUT4 dataset. Journal of Geophysical Research 117:
D08101.
Figure 16.2: National Science Foundation, photography by Heidi Roop.
Figure 16.3: adapted from Petit JR, Jouzel J, Raynaud D, Barkov NI, Barnola JM, Basile I, Bender M,
Chappellaz J, Davis J, Delaygue G, Delmotte M, Kotlyakov VM, Legrand M, Lipenkov V, Lorius C, Pépin L,
Ritz C, Saltzman E and Stievenard M (1999): Climate and Atmospheric History of the Past 420,000 Years
from the Vostok Ice Core, Antarctica. Nature 399, 429–436.
Figure 16.4: Dr Pieter Tans (NOAA/ESRL) and Dr Ralph Keeling (Scripps Institution of Oceanography).
Figure 16.5: from IPCC Fifth Assessment Report; Synthesis report, Figure 2.1 (page 59).
Preface
Preface
Every time we step outdoors, or even look out of the window, we experience weather. Sometimes
we are greeted by clear, blue skies; at other times we are faced with grey clouds. On some days,
we feel the wind in our faces; on other days it can be completely calm. Some days are warm,
some days are cold; some bring rain, some stay dry. Some even bring severe weather – heavy
snowfall, freezing rain, tornadoes or dust storms. No two days of weather are the same, and the
weather is always changing.
Weather is the complex interaction of heat and water within the atmosphere. Its power
source, the Sun, provides massive amounts of energy in the form of sunlight, which heats the
Earth’s surface and sets the atmosphere in motion. We experience this motion as wind. Water in
the atmosphere can exist in all three phases – solid ice, liquid water and water vapour – and as
the air circulates, water in the atmosphere can switch between these three phases. Water vapour
is invisible, but when it condenses to liquid or ice, it appears as cloud. These clouds can grow
and bring rain, sleet, snow, hail, thunder and lightning.
Since the dawn of time, mankind has watched the weather changing from day to day and
year to year. Despite this, being able to forecast the changing weather is a skill that has eluded us
until only very recently. The vast numbers of calculations required to produce a reliable weather
forecast have only been possible since the advent of the supercomputer. Modern technology has
played a vital part in the development of the science of meteorology, not just in terms of fore-
casting, but also in improving our observations of the atmosphere, making meteorology perhaps
one of the youngest of all the sciences.
Nowadays, meteorology is a very accessible science. TV weather forecasts are screened many
times a day and a wealth of weather information is now freely available over the internet. Mete-
orologists also find themselves in the public eye a great deal more – every time they make a
forecast, their science is put to public scrutiny. Their research is a constant, ongoing challenge
to improve the ability to forecast the weather, not just through improving weather models, but
also by improving understanding of the background science of meteorology, of how weather
systems form and interact, and even improving techniques of observing the weather. Another
area of increasing research is climate prediction: with rising global temperatures, attention is
often turned to the climate scientist to understand how the future climate might vary.
From a very early age, we are exposed to weather. For some of us, this sparks an enthusi-
astic interest leading to a career in meteorology or climate science; others are encouraged to
become dedicated amateur weather watchers. This book aims to provide a basic understanding
of the science of meteorology for those keen to take it a little further. We begin by summaris-
ing the history of meteorological observations and forecasting (Chapter 2), then we look into
how the weather is observed using a combination of surface observations and remote sensing
techniques (Chapters 3 and 4). The next chapters introduce the basic physical science behind
ix
x Preface
the weather (Chapters 5 to 9). Four chapters then follow (10 to 13) that apply this science to the
atmosphere to explain how various types of weather system evolve and dissipate. Then finally
we move on to look at forecasting: how forecasts are generated from observations, and how the
models we use to forecast the weather can be extended to generate predictions of future climate
(Chapters 14 to 16).
Note: all terms highlighted in bold are defined in the Glossary at the end of this book.
Figure 0.1 The Earth from space. Satellite picture taken on 4 September 2019, showing North and South
America. Hurricane Dorian is clearly visible off the US coast. (Image: NASA Earth Observatory/NOAA.)
Watching the Weather
Weather is one of those parts of our lives that The weather influences our actions every
we either love or hate. On a clear, sunny day single day without our even having to think
we all rave about the weather being glorious, about it. Like it or not, while we have the
while on a dull, rainy day we rant about the technology and knowledge to forecast the
weather being terrible. We often strike up con- changing weather, there is nothing we can
versations with friends and relatives and even do to alter what is coming our way. There-
strangers with an opinion about the weather fore, we must adapt our daily routine to the
– and as the weather is constantly changing, changes in weather from one day to the next.
there is always something to talk about. From Before we leave the house in the morning on
professional meteorologist to enthusiastic a rainy day, for example, we might choose to
amateur, weather is one of those things of take a raincoat and an umbrella with us; on a
which we all have some degree of knowledge. cold day, we wrap up warm; on a hot, sunny
The basic principle of making an observation day we might take our sunglasses. Once we
and then a forecast is something we all do have left our house, the weather can influ-
every time we look up at the sky and wonder ence our journey to work: on a warm, sunny
if it is going to rain. It seems as if we belong to day, we may consider walking; on a rainy day,
a world that is obsessed with the weather. But we may drive or take the bus. At lunchtime,
where does this obsession come from? we might consider a hot drink if the weather
is cold; in hot weather, a cold, refreshing drink
1.1 The Influence of Weather may be a more appropriate option. And when
Perhaps our obsession with the weather we arrive home after a day’s work, the weather
stems from the way that it can capture our may influence whether we spend the evening
imaginations. We may pay little attention to outdoors, or spend it indoors in front of the TV.
common, day-to-day weather events, such It is not just us as individuals that can be
as clouds and rain, but when the weather affected by weather. The weather also has
produces something fascinating, such as a strong influences on businesses and industry.
striking sunset, a stunning cloudscape or a Agriculture, for example, is very dependent
picturesque snow scene, we often take note on the weather. Rain is required for the irri-
and reach for our cameras (see the figures in gation of crops, so a widespread lack of rain
this chapter). The weather is often used as an can result in crop failure and a significant
evocative way of scene-setting in literature, drop in income to the farming community,
and to set the mood of paintings. Indeed, the with knock-on effects on food prices. Energy
use of weather in the arts runs back thou- companies need to know about the forthcom-
sands of years. ing weather: if colder weather is on the way,
1
2 Introducing Meteorology
Figure 1.1 A sun pillar, seen here just before sunrise on 2 May 2019, over Amsterdam, Netherlands. The vertical
column of light above the Sun is reflected off horizontally aligned ice crystals. (Photo: Jon Shonk.)
there will be an increase in energy demand for racing team can be swung by the weather:
heating. Also, nowadays, with so much energy forecasts of rain may affect the choice of
being generated from renewable sources such tyres put on the cars. Often top racing teams
as solar panels and wind turbines, the influ- will employ meteorologists to keep track of
ence of the weather on the energy companies the weather during a racing weekend. Horse
is perhaps greater than ever. The weather can racing is also affected by weather: the amount
even influence the stock put on display by of recent rainfall affects the state of the ground
supermarkets. A period of hot weather, for on which the horses run.
example, may inspire them to stock up on Weather can affect our ability to travel, par-
burgers and sausages for barbecues; a spell of ticularly when it turns adverse. For example,
wet weather may encourage them to display ice and snow on the roads can make driving
more umbrellas. conditions dangerous, and fog can reduce
The weather can impact sporting events. our view of traffic ahead. Snow and ice can
Play usually stops during cricket and tennis also affect rail transport, with the potential
matches when it starts to rain. Golf tourna- for points and signalling systems to freeze up.
ments tend to be more resilient to rain, but the The rail networks can also be affected by very
courses are quickly cleared if there is thunder high temperatures, when thermal expansion
and lightning about. The tactics of a motor of the rails can lead to potential buckling. The
Watching the Weather 3
aviation industry is perhaps the most sensi- events around the world usually grabbing a
tive to weather conditions: snow and ice at few minutes on a news programme, and occa-
airports can result in closures and mass can- sional TV series are commissioned describing
cellations of flights. Western Europe also saw the basics of meteorology. In combination, this
the effects of volcanic ash on aviation in April media coverage is a strong influence on our
2010. The eruption of the Icelandic volcano knowledge and understanding of the weather.
Eyjafjallajökull coincided with north-westerly In fact, we can gain a great deal of basic
winds across the Atlantic that spread its ash understanding of the weather by watching
cloud over most of Western Europe, leading to weather forecasts. Some TV forecasts still use
cancelled flights and grounded aircraft. maps of atmospheric pressure and weather
In extreme cases, of course, weather can be fronts, and animate how the pressure field
devastating. It may be easy to forget on a fine, is predicted to evolve over the next few days.
sunny day that, if conditions are right, intense As a consequence, most of us are aware that
weather systems can develop and bring strong, areas of high pressure are usually associated
damaging winds and torrential rain. The with fine, settled weather, while low-pressure
impact of severe weather on humanity can be systems bring unsettled, rainy and stormy
high, particularly if it strikes inhabited regions. weather. We are also largely aware that the
Hurricanes, typhoons and extreme low-pres- more closely packed the lines of constant
sure systems can cause widespread damage, pressure (known as isobars) are over an area,
and not just caused by the wind. Many of these the stronger the wind will be; we probably also
systems can cause flooding, either by intense know that wind from the direction of the poles
rainfall or storm surges in coastal areas. Trends tends to bring much colder conditions than
in weather over longer periods can also be very wind from the direction of the tropics.
damaging. For example, a long-term lack of These days, it is possible for any one of us
rainfall in a region can lead to drought, which to take an interest in the weather. The internet
can have devastating effects on agriculture contains a vast wealth of meteorological
and cause widespread famine. information, both in terms of weather data,
weather maps and openly available forecasts,
1.2 Weather Watchers enabling the enthusiastic weather watcher to
Whether fine or adverse, it always pays to constantly keep up to date with the current
know what weather is just around the corner. weather situation and keep track of how the
Fortunately, these days we have technol- weather might change over the next few days. It
ogy in place that can provide us with ample is also very straightforward to set up a weather
warning of severe weather. Weather forecasts observation station in our back garden, with
are beamed into our lives on a daily basis thermometers and barometers readily avail-
– every day, we are presented with weather able in the shops and online. Entire integrated
maps that show both the current weather situ- weather stations, often combining tempera-
ation and how the weather is likely to change ture and pressure sensors with anemometers
over the next few days. The weather is often a to measure wind, hygrometers to measure
hot topic on TV, with any noteworthy weather humidity and automatic rain gauges, are also
Watching the Weather 5
Figure 1.4 A misty and frosty winter morning near Reading, UK, on 30 December 2016. (Photo: Copyright ©
Stephen Burt.)
now becoming cheaper to purchase. These are warning of imminent change. Movements
often sold with data loggers that can be con- of the clouds can show the general direction
nected to a computer, allowing us to create of the wind. And, of course, our bodies have
our own archives of weather records. the ability to sense changes in temperature.
Even without such technology, it is still Over time, if we observe the weather for long
possible to remain very much connected to enough, it is possible to see patterns emerg-
the weather. Measuring devices allow us to ing, allowing simple forecasts of changes in
quantitatively observe many aspects of the weather to be made. In short, a lifetime of
weather. However, keeping track of what the exposure to the changing weather has made
weather is doing does not necessarily require us into a world obsessed with observing and
such measurement. Indications of weather forecasting the weather and, with mete-
are often plainly visible in the sky: the dis- orology becoming ever more accessible to
tribution and shape of clouds can indicate the public, everyone can become a weather
what the current weather is like and also give watcher.
6 Introducing Meteorology
Figure 1.5 Clouds forming over Table Mountain, South Africa, on 29 August 2015. (Photo: Jon Shonk.)
From Seaweed to Supercomputers
It may be surprising that, despite the fact that the interactions that led to weather. Perhaps the
weather has been influencing us since the dawn first ‘book’ about weather was written by Aris-
of time, the science of meteorology remains totle in about 340 BC. Entitled Meteorologica,
fairly young, with most of the significant devel- it gave explanations for many different types
opments only happening relatively recently. of weather, and was the accepted text on
To perform the two important steps required the matter for well over one thousand years.
in meteorology, observation and forecasting, However, it had a number of inaccuracies –
we need suitable measurement methods and mostly brought about by Aristotle’s attempt
computational ability – in other words, technol- to explain everything using the interaction of
ogy. Up until about 60 years ago meteorology the four classical elements: earth, air, fire and
has progressed fairly slowly. However, recent water. Nevertheless, some descriptions within
technological advances have been pivotal in it, such as the hydrological cycle, were actually
enabling the science of meteorology to grow quite accurate.
rapidly into the rich field of science that it is Weather watching and forecasting during
today. this period remained qualitative and impre-
cise, mainly making use of natural indica-
2.1 The Age of Seaweed tors. Seaweed, for example, becomes dry
The weather must have played a huge role in and crisp when the humidity of the air is low,
the lives of prehistoric man. In a time before but becomes limp and moist when the air is
thermally insulated houses and central heating, humid and rain is more likely. Also, pine cones
we would have had to adapt to and endure close when the air is humid and open when
the swing of temperature from day to day and it is drier. Longer-range forecasts were based
year to year. The weather would have affected on, for example, the flowering of trees or the
the behaviour of animals, varying the supply appearance of insects.
of food. It would also have had an impact (as The use of such natural indicators led to
indeed it still does today) on crop yields. the development of so-called weather lore
Descriptive records of weather conditions – sayings about the weather that have been
exist from thousands of years BC. However, the passed down through the generations. Even
first people to attempt to explain the science today, with the availability of forecasts on TV
behind the weather were the Ancient Greeks. and online, a red sunset often inspires us to
In a time when the Greek mathematicians quote: ‘Red sky at night, shepherd’s delight;
such as Pythagoras and Euclid were laying red sky in the morning, shepherd’s warning.’
down the basics of mathematics and physics, This particular saying works only when
a few were trying to explain the complicated weather systems approach from the west
7
8 Introducing Meteorology
– something that they normally do. A red sky Galileo Galilei, used a number of glass spheres
at sunset (Fig. 2.1) indicates clearer sky to the of a fixed mass suspended in a fluid. Each
west, hence finer weather on the way; a red sphere is designed to float at a slightly differ-
sky at sunrise suggests clearer sky to the east, ent temperature, meaning that the number of
and that the fine weather has passed. Many of spheres floating at the top gives an indication of
these sayings, however, have been shown by how warm it is. Even today, such thermometers
modern weather observations to be very unre- are sold as Galileo thermometers (Fig. 2.2),
liable. For example, ‘oak before ash, we’ll have although their slow response to temperature
a splash; ash before oak, we’ll have a soak’, change limits their location to mantelpieces
linking summer rainfall to the order in which rather than weather stations.
the oak and the ash trees come into leaf, shows The first barometer was invented by Evan-
no particular reliability. Indeed, in some lan- gelista Torricelli, another Italian scientist of
guages, ash before oak is linked to a splash. Galileo’s era, in 1644. His design was referred to
as the mercury barometer – a design also still
2.2 Early Meteorological Advances in use today (see left side of Fig. 2.3A). Torri-
The big step forward in the science of meteor- celli filled a long tube of glass with mercury,
ology, made in the seventeenth century, was and then inverted it into a bowl of mercury.
the invention of two instruments that remain He found that the height of the column of
at the heart of meteorological observations mercury settled at about 760 mm, and that it
today: the thermometer and the barometer. was atmospheric pressure pressing down on
These allowed weather observers to monitor the surface of the mercury that was holding
temperature and pressure. The earliest ther- the mercury in place. From this, he was able
mometer, often attributed to Italian scientist to monitor atmospheric pressure by observing
From Seaweed to Supercomputers 9
C D
From Seaweed to Supercomputers 11
services began to appear, such as the Indian years later by Lewis Fry Richardson in 1922.
Meteorological Department, the US Weather Using a grid of weather data from 07:00 on
Bureau (later to become the National Weather 20 May 1910, he set out to create a six-hour
Service) and the Australian Bureau of Mete- forecast. Of course, he had to perform all the
orology. An early analysis chart from the US calculations by hand, as computing resources
Weather Bureau is shown in Figure 2.4. were unavailable at the time. The forecast
Norwegian scientist Vilhelm Bjerknes made turned out to predict unrealistically large
the next step towards modern forecasting in changes in surface pressure because the equa-
1904. He made fundamental mathematical tions he used allowed fluctuations to develop
connections between thermodynamics and on a scale not observed in the atmosphere
fluid mechanics, generating a set of math- (modern forecasts mathematically filter out
ematical equations that could, in theory, be these unrealistic fluctuations). Even so, he had
used to numerically predict the weather. The a vision of the first global numerical weather
first numerical forecast was produced several prediction, with a large number of forecasters
Figure 2.4 A map of weather over the USA on 22 January 1922. Contours of pressure (in inches of mercury) and
temperature (in °F) are shown. (Image: NOAA Photo Library/US Weather Bureau.)
From Seaweed to Supercomputers 13
within a massive spherical room representing French meteorologist Robert Bureau, although
the Earth, with each forecaster calculating the modern radiosondes follow the design of
weather at a given point based on the results Russian meteorologist Pavel Molchanov.
found by the surrounding forecasters. The increase in aviation throughout this
In the 1910s and 1920s, the earlier work on period necessitated the invention of the radio-
the passage of storms was advanced by a group sonde, particularly during the Second World
of scientists based in Norway that included War, where in-depth forecasts and observa-
Vilhelm Bjerknes and his son Jakob. They devel- tions were required for military aircraft. The
oped a simple model describing the life cycle Second World War also led to the develop-
and evolution of mid-latitude depressions ment of rainfall radar, another system that we
that used the now familiar concept of fronts, still use today. Radar, an acronym for radio
where cold air and warm air meet. Despite their detection and ranging, was originally used as
limited observational techniques at the time, a means to detect incoming aircraft at airfields
their description of how depressions develop and military installations. Pulses of radio
was very accurate. Research has since added waves are emitted and reflect back off any
further understanding to the process, yet most solid objects, such as approaching aircraft.
elements of their so-called Norwegian model The radar operators also noted, however,
are still used today to explain how depressions that radio waves also reflected off areas of
form and develop. rain. After the war, a group of meteorological
researchers investigated this effect further and
2.4 Looking Up into the Atmosphere noted that, if the wavelength of the emitted
Of course, forecasters needed information radio waves was tuned to about 50 mm, infor-
about the weather conditions not only at mation about the raindrop size and location
the surface, but also high up in the atmos- could be obtained. This became a valuable
phere. Early attempts to measure condi- tool in the real-time monitoring of rainfall. An
tions at height used kites with instruments early rainfall radar image is seen in Figure 2.5.
attached. However, as they had to be secured The final big step in weather observation
to the ground by ropes, they could never get came in 1960s, when the first weather satellite
particularly high into the atmosphere, as were launched. Earlier investigations using
long ropes are very heavy. Manned ascents in cameras mounted on rockets showed the
hot-air balloons allowed some instrumented immense amounts of information available
measurements – English meteorologist James from a space-based observation platform.
Glaisher made many trips up through the NASA’s ‘TIROS-1’ (Television Infrared Obser-
atmosphere in hot-air balloons during the vation Satellite) is considered the first suc-
1860s. However, this was often risky, with low cessful weather satellite, returning pictures
levels of oxygen often causing observers to of clouds from space. Launched in 1960, it
pass out during the flight. The development provided a wealth of images of cloud cover
of the radiosonde during the 1920s made the around the world, such as in Figure 2.6. Sub-
routine collection of data aloft far less hazard- sequent TIROS satellite missions through
ous. The first true radiosonde was invented by the 1960s continued the research into the
14 Introducing Meteorology
of national weather services began to run the world, allowing cutting-edge research
their own operational forecasts. As comput- into understanding the science behind the
ers became faster, more and more processes weather. Modern meteorological research
could be included in the weather models, encompasses three main areas: the develop-
giving increasingly detailed forecasts. ment and improvement of instrumentation
Developments in technology over the last to increase our ability to observe the weather;
50 years or so have allowed massive advances analysis of the observed data to increase our
in computing technology. Since about 1970, understanding of the processes that take
computing speed and power have risen expo- place in the atmosphere; and building better
nentially with time. According to Moore’s methods of modelling these aspects of the
Law, over the last few decades, the number weather. Each of these areas of research spans
of transistors that can be placed on an inte- a wide range of disciplines and, with improved
grated circuit has been doubling every two computer technology, we can now analyse
years. This means that much greater compu- our data and model the weather in far greater
tational power can also be condensed down detail than ever before.
into a smaller space. For example, the compu- One final chain of research branched off
tational power of a modern mobile phone that from the development of weather forecasts
fits into the palm of our hand is much greater while computer power was still in the early
than the power of the early computers, which stages of development. This was the reali-
sometimes filled several rooms. sation that these weather models could be
Computational power has also become modified and run over much longer periods.
cheaper. This has allowed advanced com- This opened the door to the principle of
puting systems to become commonplace in climate modelling and allowed scientists to
research agencies and universities all over investigate future climate change.
The Weather Station
Before we can start to forecast the weather, stations, so weather readings were sometimes
we need a set of data describing the condi- variable in quality. Even so, there were enough
tion of the atmosphere at a given time. In weather data archived in various historical
forecasting circles, such data is referred to records from around the Midlands of England
as initial conditions. We need observations to allow English scientist Gordon Manley to
of temperature, pressure, humidity, cloud create a temperature record stretching all the
cover, cloud type, wind speed and many way back to 1659. This series is known as the
other quantities, ideally at as many points on Central England Temperature series, and is
the Earth’s surface as possible, and sampled the longest observational record of climate in
throughout the depth of the atmosphere. Of existence. Since Manley completed the series
course, it is impractical to observe the entire in 1953, it has been updated every year. The
atmosphere at quite this level of detail. Even modern UK operational surface observation
so, the modern global weather observa- network consists of several hundred stations.
tion network consists of over 10,000 land- Many of these are fully automated and return
based weather sites, thousands of automatic their measurements electronically, but some
weather stations mounted on buoys and still employ an observer to make measure-
ships at sea, hundreds of sites that monitor ments in the traditional way.
the conditions aloft, and an array of weather A great number of countries in the world
satellites in constant orbit around the Earth. now have networks of surface observation
Data from all of these sources can be used stations. Figure 3.1 indicates the typical global
to initialise our forecast. We begin our tour coverage of surface observations. But, if the
of the global observation network on the data they report is to be useful, it is impor-
ground – at the meteorological observation tant that international standards are set so
station. that data from one country is consistent with
data from the next. The World Meteorological
3.1 Surface Observations Organization (WMO), a branch of the United
Of all the types of weather observation, the Nations, defines these standards. For a global
first to develop was the land-based surface set of weather observations to be useful to
observation station. These have been around a forecaster, it is much better if they are all
for centuries and were, in the past, manned by made at exactly the same time. Therefore,
observers making records of the weather using irrespective of time zone, the meteorological
sometimes very simple meteorological instru- world sets its clocks to Universal Time Co-
ments. Back then, there were no set stand- ordinated (UTC), chosen by convention to
ards on the location and siting of observation be synchronised with Greenwich Mean Time.
16
ECMWF data coverage (all observations) - SYNOP-SHIP-METAR
06/09/2019 06 The Weather Station 17
Total number of obs = 125625
SYNOP-LAND TAC (28637) METAR (19566) SHIP-TAC (4888) METAR-AUTO (38123)
SYNOP-SHIP BUFR (2634) SYNOP-LAND BUFR (31777)
150°W 120°W 90°W 60°W 30°W 0°E 30°E 60°E 90°E 120°E 150°E
80°N 80°N
60°N 60°N
40°N 40°N
20°N 20°N
0°N 0°N
20°S 20°S
40°S 40°S
60°S 60°S
80°S 80°S
150°W 120°W 90°W 60°W 30°W 0°E 30°E 60°E 90°E 120°E 150°E
Figure 3.1 Each coloured spot shows the location of one of the 125,625 surface stations and ships that provided
a weather report at 00:00 UTC on 6 September 2019. Note the uneven distribution of the observations over the
globe. (Data: ECMWF.)
That way, making observations worldwide at When made, these observations are relayed
00:00, 06:00, 12:00 and 18:00 UTC gives global back to the national weather services, where
snapshots of the weather every six hours. the data is collated and shared with the world.
Often, however, weather observations Again, so that the observations can be inter-
are made much more frequently than six- preted by any meteorologist anywhere in the
hourly. In operational stations, readings are world, the observations are reported using a
normally made every hour throughout the coding system managed by the WMO. For a
day. These include readings of temperature, weather agency in a particular country to be
pressure, humidity, wind speed, wind direc- able to generate a forecast, it needs weather
tion and many more. Such observations are data from all over the world. The observa-
referred to as synoptic observations. Some tions collated by the national services are then
stations also make climatic observations. gathered and archived at one of the WMO’s
These are measurements that are made once World Meteorological Centres.
a day (usually at 09:00 local time) and sum-
marise the weather over the course of the 3.2 Inside the Stevenson Screen
preceding 24-hour period. Climatic obser- Even with the onset of modern technologi-
vations include maximum and minimum cal advances, the instrumentation found on
temperatures, total rainfall accumulation weather stations managed by an observer has,
and hours of sunshine. in many cases, undergone little change in the
18 Introducing Meteorology
II
III
IV
When Nietzsche wrote down the phrase “transvaluation of all
values” for the first time, the spiritual movement of the centuries in
which we are living found at last its formula. Transvaluation of all
values is the most fundamental character of every civilization. For it
is the beginning of a Civilization that it remoulds all the forms of the
Culture that went before, understands them otherwise, practises
them in a different way. It begets no more, but only reinterprets, and
herein lies the negativeness common to all periods of this character.
It assumes that the genuine act of creation has already occurred,
and merely enters upon an inheritance of big actualities. In the Late-
Classical, we find the event taking place inside Hellenistic-Roman
Stoicism, that is, the long death-struggle of the Apollinian soul. In the
interval from Socrates—who was the spiritual father of the Stoa and
in whom the first signs of inward impoverishment and city-
intellectualism became visible—to Epictetus and Marcus Aurelius,
every existence-ideal of the old Classical underwent transvaluation.
In the case of India, the transvaluation of Brahman life was complete
by the time of King Asoka (250 B.C.), as we can see by comparing
the parts of the Vedanta put into writing before and after Buddha.
And ourselves? Even now the ethical socialism of the Faustian soul,
its fundamental ethic, as we have seen, is being worked upon by the
process of transvaluation as that soul is walled up in the stone of the
great cities. Rousseau is the ancestor of this socialism; he stands,
like Socrates and Buddha, as the representative spokesman of a
great Civilization. Rousseau’s rejection of all great Culture-forms and
all significant conventions, his famous “Return to the state of
Nature,” his practical rationalism, are unmistakable evidences. Each
of the three buried a millennium of spiritual depth. Each proclaimed
his gospel to mankind, but it was to the mankind of the city
intelligentsia, which was tired of the town and the Late Culture, and
whose “pure” (i.e., soulless) reason longed to be free from them and
their authoritative form and their hardness, from the symbolism with
which it was no longer in living communion and which therefore it
detested. The Culture was annihilated by discussion. If we pass in
review the great 19th-Century names with which we associate the
march of this great drama—Schopenhauer, Hebbel, Wagner,
Nietzsche, Ibsen, Strindberg—we comprehend in a glance that