Un conventional | Brand building | Challenging

(C) Consult Club, IIM Ahmedabad 2020-21

Guess
 Guesstimates – Tips & Tricks

Pointers to Remember

• Clarify the scope of the problem

• Think of alternatives (Supply & Demand, Optimal Solution?)
• Confirm the assumptions and redo
• Depending upon the nature of the case, you can find a bottleneck
• Remember to do magnitude check
• Solve the problem without creating a mess
• Keep in mind 4 key filters to zero in on the exact consumer segments – (1) Rural-Urban Split (2) Gender Split (3) A
• Remember to simplify & remember some data (related to the 4 types of splits stated above – can refer to “Datash

Few Strategies & Pointers

• Regarding the SETTING

o Approach – Household vs Individual vs Bottleneck
o Temporal uniformity assumption ( e.g. Weekday vs Weekend, Spikes vs Non-Spikes) : Assert with the inte

• Regarding the SOLUTION

o Time-Unit Analysis (Time - Days Vs Weeks Vs Year; Unit - Currency, Number etc.)
o Nature of users (use the 4 filters stated above)
o Lifetime of a Product i.e. Replacement frequency
o Peak Time Analysis
o Occupancy Rate

• Regarding TROUBLESHOOTING
o Representative Sampling with Adjustments done basis the 4 filters

(C) Consult Club, IIM Ahmedabad 2020-21

Guesstimate
156
Estimate the annual demand for Gold flake cigarettes in Mumbai

Interviewee Notes Case Facts Approach/ Framework

• Begin by understanding total • Market share
Population of
market for cigarettes in for Gold flake
Mumbai
Mumbai in Delhi is
• Market share for gold flake 20%, 20 Mn

would be similar to other Bangalore is

metropolitan cities such as 22% Not o
Of smoking age
Delhi and Bangalore (75%)
15 Mn

Smokers (50%) Non Smokers (50%)

7.5 Mn

400 days 20 Cigs per

1 pack a day
(Year approx.) pack

7.5Mn * 400 * 20 = 60,000 Million Cigarettes a year

Approx. market share of Gold flake = 20%
Demand for Gold flake = 20* 60,000 Million = 12,000 Million Cigar

(C) Consult Club, IIM Ahmedabad 2020-21

 Guesstimate
157
Estimate the number of crows in Ahmedabad

Interviewee Notes Approach/ Framework

• Since crows will be flying
over different areas during Ahmedabad
the day, it would be
Starting Assumption: Ahmedaba
(500 sq. km)
difficult to determine total
number of crows.
• Assume no crow leaves or Low Forest Cover Medium Forest High Forest
enters the city (or assume Cover (30%)
(60%) Cover (10%)
number of crows during
Number of Crows in A
the day to be the same as
during the night) Low Forest
Trees / area Area Type Cover
• At night, crows rest on
trees. Try to find out the Percentage Area 60%
trees in different regions
of Ahmedabad, and using Trees / (100x100 sq. m) 10
this data, guesstimate the Nests / tree Nests / Tree 0.2
number of crows.
Crows / Nest 4
Number of Crows
240,000
Crows / nest (region-wise)
Total Crows 460,000

(C) Consult Club, IIM Ahmedabad 2020-21

Guesstimate
158
Estimate the annual revenue of a multiplex

Interviewee Notes Case Facts and calculations

• Only cover the substantial Average daily revenue/screen
revenue streams 1. Ticket Sales Revenue per day= Revenue streams
• The footfall will depend on (Average footfall per day)*(Average price
whether it is a weekday or per show)*(No of shows/day)
weekend =200*250*4=Rs 2,00,000 Ticket sales Parking Food
• Price can also be 2. Revenue from parking per week:
considered different for (Average footfall per show)*(% people
Average Average
weekday and weekend, using parking)*No of shows/day)* footfall per price per No of
here although average (Average ticket size) show show shows/day
price has been taken 200*0.5*4*50=Rs 20,000
• Assume that the revenue 3. Advertising Revenue= Assuming it is Weekdays
Weekend
(Mon-
from advertising primarily 10% of the total revenue (Fri-Sun)
Thur)
comes from billboards and 4. Food & Beverage= (Average footfall
digital ads between per show)*(% people buying)*No of Weekdays Weekends
movies. shows/day)* Seating Capacity 300 300
• This is average revenue (Average ticket size) Average
occupancy rate 60% 75%
per screen, can be 200*0.5*4*150=Rs 60,000
multiplied by number of Average daily revenue/screen =Rs 4.2lac Average footfall 180 225
screens to obtain revenue Total Revenue = Average daily
Average footfall per day = (180*4+225*3)/7~200
of multiplex revenue/screen*No of screens*No of
days
=4.2*4*300 = 5040 lacs =50.4 Cr
(Taking into account some days when
the footfall will be extremely low)

(C) Consult Club, IIM Ahmedabad 2020-21

Guesstimate
159
Estimate the value of a coffin maker’s business in Ahmedabad

Interviewee Notes Approach / Framework

• NPV analysis Profits
• 1% of Ahmedabad Estimating quantity
assumed to be Christian
• Life expectancy assumed
Population
to be 70 and population (60,00,000) Revenues C
growth rate of Christians
assumed to be 0%
• Only 3 coffin makers in % Christian (1%) = Price
Ahmedabad (info received 60,000
(Rs. 10,000) (
from interviewer) so
market share assumed to No. of deaths per year
be 1/3 = (1/70)*60,000 = Quantity V
~900
• FC and VC provided by (
(300)
interviewer when asked
• Discount rate assumed to
Market Share = 1/3
be 10% (chosen for ease
of calculation and NPV = (10,000*300 – 4
reasonable since risk free .6*10,000*300)/0.1 = Rs
rate is ~7%) Quantity = 300
• Profits assumed to stay
constant into perpetuity

Observations / Suggestions
• This guesstimates tests the basics of finance (NPV, PV of perpetuity)
• Common mistakes include not account for the % of population that is Christian (assuming everyone that dies needs a coffin) and errors in calc

(C) Consult Club, IIM Ahmedabad 2020-21

 Guesstimate
160
Estimate the monthly electricity consumption (residential) in India

Interviewee Notes Approach / Framework

Electricity
• Clarify end-markets to be included
(residential / commercial) because
consumption rates are very different in
these segments. In this case, focus only Residential Commercial
on residential.
• Within rural segment, interviewee
should consider adjusting for (1) Urban Population Rural Pop
= 300m 700
homeless people and (2) areas which
are not electrified
• Weighing monthly consumption by % of
Households = Househ
households in the income type and 300m/4 = 75m 700m/6 =
multiplying this by # of households will
give monthly units consumption
Low Income 60% Mid Income 30% High Income 10% Low Income 70% Mid Incom

Monthly Monthly
Consumption Monthly Monthly Consumption Co
Consumption 1200 Consumption 3000
300 units 100 units

75m x (60% x 300 + 30% x 1200 + 10% x 3000) = 63,000 units 120m x (70% x 100 + 25% x

(C) Consult Club, IIM Ahmedabad 2020-21

 Guesstimate
161
To estimate the revenue of tourism in Gujarat in peak months

Interviewee Notes Case Facts Approach/ Framework

• Was required to estimate Cost per trip = Market for tourism per
cost per person per Lodging + Travel peak month
bucket and number of + Food +
people in each bucket Sightseeing
• Usually it’s easier to Total Revenue =
analyse group costs over (Population x
Couple Groups Family
individual costs Can afford x No.
• Was required to take in India x No. in
Filters Couple Groups F
several assumptions Gujarat x No. in
• Quantitatively intensive peak month/ No. Population 20mn 110mn 200mn
case, required a significant of people per Can afford 20% 10% 10%
amount of breaking down group) x cost per Number in India 80% 100% 80%
into trip Number in Gujarat 5% 10% 5%
Number in peak month 25% 8.33% 16.67%
• Number of marriages Number of people per group 2 5 5
taken to be 10mn
Cost per trip/group 11,500 6,000 12,000
• Calculation done for Lodging 4,000 2,000 5,000
tourists only from urban Travel 2,000 1,500 2,000
India and abroad Food 3,000 1,500 3,000
Sightseeing 2,500 1,000 2,000

Total revenue 230mn 110mn 320mn

(C) Consult Club, IIM Ahmedabad 2020-21

 Guesstimate
162
Estimate the monthly mobile data usage (GB) in 2020

Interviewee Notes Approach/ Framework Monthly Data Usage (in GB) by differe
• Divide current population
into Urban and Rural. Current Population Income Low
Calculate data for only (1 billion)
Urban population, and Age 60%
extrapolate for Rural
0-15 25% 0
population using a similar
logic
Urban (30%) 15-30 35% 0.1
• In Urban areas, data usage Rural (70%)
is dependent on factors
30-50 25% 0.1
like age group (older
generation may not be >50 15% 0
tech savvy) and income
(lower income groups Age Group Weighted Average (WA) 0.036
might not have access to
smartphones)
• Estimate usage for 2017, Total Data Usa
Population
and assuming an annual (Sum of WA) month
growth, predict usage for 1.064 300 m 32
Income
2020

(C) Consult Club, IIM Ahmedabad 2020-21

Guesstimate
163
Estimate the daily revenue of an airport

Interviewee Notes Case Facts and calculations

• Only cover the most
substantial revenue streams Revenue airline fee: 5% of the total ticket Revenue streams
• Assume shops pay a fixed fare
and a variable fee to the
Revenue from shops:
airport Airline fees Parking + lounge S
• The number of flights per (Fixed fee per shop + % of revenue *
hour depends on whether it Volume) * Number of shops
fixed fee:
is a rush hour
Advertising Revenue= Meters of check-in
• Assume that the revenue spaces
billboards * price/meter
from advertising primarily
comes from billboards Domestic International
• Assume that parking +
lounge are only a minor
revenue stream for airports
Rush [hour]
and can be skipped.
• Assume that the airline fees Low(7) High(11)
Med(6)
primarily come from the
variable fee for slots Rush hour Low Medium High
Hours 7 6 11
Flights/h 2 6 12
Flights/day 14 36 132

Observations/Tips/Suggestions
• Should first create structure, then put numbers to it
• Make reasonable assumptions, clarify with interviewers at each stage
• Be prepared to justify your assumptions at each stage

(C) Consult Club, IIM Ahmedabad 2020-21

Guesstimate
164
Estimate the yearly revenue of an IPL team

Interviewee Notes Case Facts and Calculations Approach/ Framework

Only cover the most
Revenue advertising:
substantial revenue streams Revenue streams
(Price per m of billboard * length)*
IPL revenue only receives a
Matches
small fraction of the revenue
5000*400*7= 1.4 Crore
(35% for home games, 5% for
(Small shirt ads*Price +shirt sponsor)*
away), the rest is paid to the
matches Ads TV ads St
league
(10*5 Lakh +20 Lakh)*14= 10 Crore
The circumference of a
cricket pitch is approximately
Revenue tickets:
400 meters Shops
No. of home matches*Tickets*Ticket
The probability of winning the Billboards Uniform
price*% of revenue (same for away
league is the same for each
matches)
team (1/8)
7*50k*500*0.35+7*50k*500*0.05≈7CR
A league season consist of 14
matches
Prize Money
Merchandise is only a minor Inter-over Special breaks
Probability of winning * price money
revenue stream for an IPL breaks
(1/8) * 5 Cr ≈ 60 Lakh
team, and hence, can be
skipped Inter-over
TV ads (See Framework) Type of Advertisement
Breaks
No. Of slots 40
Price per slot 20 Lakh
Total 8 Cr

(C) Consult Club, IIM Ahmedabad 2020-21

Guesstimate
165
Estimate the number of emails flowing though IIMA mail server

Interviewee Notes Approach/ Framework

• Was asked to exclude
PGPX and other programs Mails
for simplicity.

Academic Administrative SIF Peer-

PGP 1 : GNB: 10/week * 4 Joos + 6 5 mails

=# courses * # students * # Community size SPFS/JPNS/day=10/day membe
mails/course (2k) * 7 * 1000( No of =10k/w
= 6* 450* 3 = 8.1 k/week = students)
20k/week =70k/week
PGP2:
=# courses* # students *
#mails/week Framework Summary
= 30*80*3 • Structured the case into 4 parameters – Academic, Adminis
=7.2 k/week • #mails/course: 2 from Instructor on average and 1 for the q
• Community size: 1000 students + 1000 faculty, academic an
• There will be some other additional external mails which ar
• Also PGPX and other programs are not taken into consider

(C) Consult Club, IIM Ahmedabad 2020-21

Guesstimate
166
Estimate the total length of barbed wire used in India

Interviewee Notes Approach/ Framework

• Assume square farmlands
Total used, land area
• Find the average perimeter of each size of farmland
of India
• Barbed wire needed = perimeter * number of
times the wire is wound
• Adjacent farmlands would be sharing a common
side of barbed wiring.
Farmland Residenti
(70%) (20%)
• Multiply the total number with a factor to account
for how barbed wire is usually used: circled
through the perimeter Small Sized Medium Sized Large Sized
(30mx30m) (50mx50m) (100mx100m)
50% 30% 20%

Perimeter Number of D
Times s
Wound (2)

(C) Consult Club, IIM Ahmedabad 2020-21

Guesstimate
167
To estimate profit made by SBI branch in IIMA Campus.

Calculations Approach/ Framework

Loans per year ~100; Lifetime – 5 yrs.
500 active loans at any point
Principal Rs.10 lakh (for 20 lakh fee –
averaged over repayment of 5 years)
Net interest margin – 3%
Interest income = 500*10*3% = INR 1.5 Cr
Bank Profit

Exchange students – 100 trips/ year

Faculty – 200 trips / year
Insurance Premium per person – 2000 Interest Insurance
~ 40% commission for per policy
Fees – 300*2000*0.4 = INR 2.4 lakh
Forex – INR 6000 per person (assume Number of loans
Net interest Exchange Students
margin Loan life and value Premium
everyone carries INR 1 lakh worth FOREX) and Faculty (300
(500 active) (5 years, 10 lakh) (2000*40%
(3%) trips / year)
Forex income = 300*6000 = INR 18 lakh

NPA – Total Loss of Principal and Interest

– 1 per year
~INR 25 lakh

(C) Consult Club, IIM Ahmedabad 2020-21

Guesstimate
168
Estimate the revenue of a typical post office in India.

Calculations Approach/ Fram ework

Major portion of revenue – logistics and Post office revenue
parcels. Others ignored

Typical circle of coverage for a metro

post office ~ 2 km radius or 12 km2 Logistics and
Account deposit Sale of Forms etc.
parcels
Typical metro area = 500 km2
Thus, 40 post offices in the metro
Assume, high volume – 20 and medium,
low - 10 Demand side
analysis

Two approaches – demand side (number

of transactions) and supply side (number Number of Post Transactions per Counters
Transac
Hours per day
offices hour capacity
of counters, utilisation in a day)
Revenue per parcel ~ 50, neglect any
charges for extra weights etc Traffic High Medium Low Traffic

# PO 20 10 10 # PO
Total parcels ~20000
Transaction/hour 80 30 15 Counters
Total revenue ~ INR 10 lakh
Hours / day 10 10 10 Hourly capacity / transac

Total 16000 3000 1500 Hours / day * Utilisatio

Total

(C) Consult Club, IIM Ahmedabad -2020-21

Guesstimate
169
Golf balls in the air in an average second in India

Calculations Approach/ Framework

• #golf players : assume only people earning ₹15 lakh and
above will play golf as it is an expensive hobby to pursue. The
#people above that income threshold is around 5 million.
Out of these 50 lakh, assume 70% live in urban areas and Income eligible players
have access to a golf course
v Out of remaining 3.5 million,1.5 million will be
children and senior citizens. Hence 2 million Facility eligible players (urban)
people eligible
v Out of these 2 million, assume 50% play any sport
(assumption on basic fitness) Age eligible population
v The remaining 1 million can play one out of upto
20 sports (cricket, badminton, tennis, swimming
etc). Thus 5% on average will end up playing golf Population that plays sports
i.e there are 50,000 players
• Frequency of play
v We assume that the average player plays once a Population that plays golf
month (expensive and time consuming sport)
• Number of hits
v We assume that the average game is one round,
Avg # of players/week
18 hole
v The average number of hits per game is 108 (18
holes, par score is 4 and everyone hits 2 above par
Avg number of hits/game Number of hits/day
as players are not professionals)
v We assume that the average ball spends about 1
second in the air 108 (18 holes, 4 par, 2 above) 1,80,000
v Thus the number of ball seconds in the air is
~1,80,000 per day =108*1666
v The average number of balls/second is 2.08

Recommendations
• This case can also be approached from the supply side. The supply side in this case is the number of golf courses, their average utilization

Tips / Suggestions
• It is essential to reverse ladder the population to arrive at the number of golf players. You can clarify your assumptions with the interview
• Lay out your approach upfront for the interviewer so that if a different approach is to adopted, course correction can happen at the earlie

(C) Consult Club, IIM Ahmedabad 2020-21

Guesstimate
170
Calculate the annual market for medical X-ray machines in India

Calculations Approach/ Framework

Replacement demand
• Calculate the stock of X-Ray machines in India
• Break India into rural and urban areas Demand Sources
• Estimate bed per thousand people in urban and rural areas
separately and make assumptions about average hospital size
and #X-Ray machines per hospital (2.5 for urban and 1 for
rural)
Replacement sources
• This will give you the stock of X-Ray machines at hospitals
• Do similar exercise for clinics by calculating the stock of
orthopaedicians in private practice
• Demand: Divide the stock by life cycle to get the 1 year
demand for X-Ray machines
New demand
• Estimate the growth in healthcare expenditure and use that
as a growth rate for hospital bed availability. Then calculate Hospitals Small clinics Hospit
the number of hospitals and the number of X-Ray
machines/hospital Beds/Thousand #Hospitals #Xray Machines Growth (
• Differentiate this rate for urban and rural areas and calculate Machine
the new demand for X-Ray machines coming from hospitals
• Calculate the new demand coming from clinics by : (Doctors 0.5 4000 (100 4000 (Stock)
Rural +10%
graduating - #Doctors joining public sector)*Proportion of (800m) beds avg) Replacement Demand : 400
Orthopaedicians
2 4000 (200 10000 (Stock)
• This will give the number of new orthopaedicians who will Urban +15%
(400m) bed avg) Replacement demand : 1000
join private services every year and buy an X-ray for their
clinic

Recommendations
• Can be approached from the patient demand side in this case. The demand case in this guesstimate is the number of injuries and use cases

Tips / Suggestions
• It is essential to structure the demand into different brackets first.
• Interviewer will automatically guide you to focus on the most important bracket

(C) Consult Club, IIM Ahmedabad 2020-21

Guesstimate
171
Estimating the number of Zoom users in India post-COVID

Interviewee Notes Case Facts Approach/ Framework

• Begin by understanding primary • Defining
usage of Zoom- as per locational Users- who
divide and age demographics use Zoom Population of Ind
• Gauge Zoom’s market share to frequently for
estimate users classes, 130 Cr
• Considering rural urban population meetings,
pre-COVID discussions Rural
• Chances of Rural people using etc.
Zoom are negligible
• Population with 60+ age would be
negligible
• Age group 0-14 has 66% students Age Demographics 0-14 15-25 26-4
• 50% students/individuals in age
groups 0-14 & 15-25 have access
12 Cr 8 Cr 10 C
to technology Individuals using video
• Age groups 26-40 & 40-60 will 4 Cr 4 Cr 1.5 C
conferencing
primarily have working
professionals- 50%*30% (labour
force*formal sector workers)
Considering Zoom’s
2.3 Cr
market share (~20%)

Observations/Tips/Suggestions
• 15-25 and 26-40 brackets can be merged for a much better structural presentation.
• First create structure, then put numbers to it.

(C) Consult Club, IIM Ahmedabad 2020-21

Guesstimate
172

Interviewee Notes Approach/ Framework

• Population of India is taken as 1.2B Population of India

and average family size of 4, which 130 Cr
leads to total number of household
equal to 300M South states
• Population split by North and
South – 60% and 40%
• No heater are bought in Southern Rural
Part of India
• High income group having salary > 60%, ~120M
10-12L, Middle class salary range –
2-10L, Poor family income < 2L Rich Middle Class Poor Rich
• Average life of heater for a high
income family to be 3 years and for Income
Demographics 10%, ~6M 30%, ~20M 60%, ~34M 2%, ~2M
middle class family to be 5 years
Households having
heaters 80%, ~5M 40%, ~8M 0% 40%, ~0.8

Households buying
33%, ~1.5M 20%, ~1.5M 0% 33%, ~0.
heater in 2019

Observations/Tips/Suggestions
• This case can also be approached from the supply side. Number of heater sellers, sales per day and bucketed into various locations.
• Round off numbers, rather than trying to be too precise

(C) Consult Club, IIM Ahmedabad 2020-21

Guesstimate
173
Estimate the no. of sanitary pads used in India in a year

Interviewee Notes Approach/ Framework

Population of India
• Look at it from the consumer
(1250 Mn)
side, Begin by understanding
total number of women in the
menstruating age
Female (600 Mn) Ma
• Incorporate population
distribution (rural, urban) and
income characteristics as rural
or low income women generally 6 Mn
Non-menstruating (0- Menstruating Menopause
don’t use sanitary pads (45+ years), 20%
14 years), 30% (15-45 years), 50%
• Assume average period length
to be 5 days. 300 Mn

Urban (30%) Rural (70%)

90 Mn
Mid or High Income
Low Income (20%)
(80%)
72 Mn 18 Mn
(Round off to 75 Mn)

Average no. of pads used per cycle = 5

Average no. of cycles per month = 1 i.e. 12 cycles per year
Estimated no. of pads used in India = 75Mn * 5 pads/cycle *12 cycles/ year = 4500 Mn pads/year

Observations/Tips/Suggestions
• Mid & High-Income approximation might have been an overestimate in this case.
• Make reasonable assumptions and clarify with interviewers at each stage

(C) Consult Club, IIM Ahmedabad 2020-21

Guesstimate I9

Estimate the weekly usage of shampoo (in L) in Mumbai

Interviewee Notes Calculations Approach/ Framework

Population of Mum
• Segment population based Total shampoo usage =20Mn
on income groups of frequency per week=
households Shampoo frequency
per member of High Income Middle income
• Identify the frequency with
which each type of income household* number of
members per Characteristics of income 4 people/household, 5 people/household
group uses shampoo
household groups 20% of population 30% of population
• Identify the amount of
shampoo used per session by Population, Pop: 4Mn, Pop: 6Mn,
each income group (sachet Total ml of shampoo households in each Households: 1Mn Households: 1.2M
size vs taking from bottle) used per week= Total
• Use these to estimate the shampoo usage Shampoo frequency/
3/week 2/week
total weekly shampoo usage frequency per week* member of household
by each category and total in ml of shampoo used
Mumbai per person per wash Total shampoo usage 12 times a week 10 times a week
• Remember to convert ml to frequency per week per household per household
L ml of shampoo used
• Low income households will Total L of shampoo 10 ml 8 ml
per person per wash
use ‘shampoo’ less frequently used per category per
per week week= Total shampoo Total ml of shampoo
• High income will use more used by household in 120 ml/ household 80 ml/ househo
used per week
shampoo per wash ml* number of
households/1000 Total L of shampoo
120k L 96k L
per category per week
Total L of shampoo in
120k60k+96k+60k
+ 96k + 51k L=
Mumbai per week
Observations/Tips/Suggestions
• In case of a long drawn analysis, it may also help to mention the approach upfront to the interviewer so that a course correction can be mad
• Always do a sanity check in multi layered estimates

(C) Consult Club, IIM Ahmedabad 2020-21

Guesstimate
175
Estimate the number of Credit Cards (CC) issued in India

Interviewee Notes Approach/ Framework

• 40:60 Urban:Rural population Population of

divide, because CC popular only India
in urban areas 1.3 Bn Inco
• 50:50 population divide in (tier- Distributi
1 and tier-2 cities): towns, Rural Urban
because CC are popular only in
tier-1 and tier-2 cities 15,000 –
780 Mn 520 Mn
• Assuming 50% of working age
Tier - 1 & Tier - 30,000 –
• Assuming banks issuing credit Towns 2 cities
card only to those who earn >=
INR 15,000 per month. 30:70 260 Mn 260 Mn 60,000 –
divide here
• Income distribution as provided
Unemployable
Working age 1,20,0
in table age
• Total # of cards 1 130 Mn 130 Mn
= 39 Mn * % of * # of CC
Income < INR Income >= INR
avg
15,000 15,000
91 Mn 39 Mn

# of credit cards across income distributions: 39*0.5*0.5 = 9.75 Mn

39*0.3*1 = 11.7 Mn
39*0.15*3 = 17.55 Mn
39*0.05*4 = 7.8 Mn
Total # of credit cards issued in India = (9.75 + 11.7 + 17.55 + 7.8) Mn = 46.8 Mn

Observations/Tips/Suggestions
• Urban % and Working age % estimates might need a slight correction
• It is a good idea to listen to the interviewer comments carefully, and if time permits, try to address them

(C) Consult Club, IIM Ahmedabad 2020-21

Guesstimate
176
Estimate the revenue of Maggi in Delhi during Lockdown phase-1
Interviewee Notes
• 60% of Delhi’s population
consumes instant noodles
• 15% of Delhi’s population
falls below poverty line
• Population distribution in
age group (0-14) is 25%
and (15-34) is 40%
• Rural : urban population =
2:98
• Each target audience of
rural India consumes 1
packet of instant noodle a
week
• Urban population in age
group (0-14) consumes 2
packets a week while (15-
34) consumes 4 packets a
week
• Market share of Maggi in
Delhi is 50%
• Each person consumes a
single packet of Rs 12
• Age group (35 and above)
is not considered
Observations/Tips/Suggestions
• Rural demand is miniscule and can be ignored to focus better on the Urban demand
• Round off numbers, rather than trying to be too precise
(C) Consult Club, IIM Ahmedabad
Calculations Approach/ Framework
• Population of
Delhi=2 crores Population of Delhi that consumes Above po
• Population of Delhi any instant noodles (60%) populat
that consumes 1.02
1.2 crores
instant noodles= 1.2
crores
• Above poverty line Age group 0-14 (25%)
population =
1.2*0.85= 1.02 0.255 crores
crores
• Population which falls Rural (2%) Urban (98%)
in age group(0-14)=
1.02*0.25= 0.255 51000 0.249 crores
crores
• Population which falls Revenue generated in 51000* Rs12*1 0.245*Rs12*2
in age group(15-34)= a week time= 6 lakhs times= 5.99 crores
1.02*0.4= 0.408
crores Total revenue in a
• Total revenue in a INR 25.44 crores
week
week = 0.0612+
5.99+ 0.196+ 19.192 Total revenue in 3
= INR 25.44 crores INR 76.32 crores
weeks
• Total revenue in 3
weeks = 25.44*3 =
Total revenue of
INR 76.32 crores INR 38.16 crores
Maggi (50% share)
• Revenue of Maggi =
76.32*0.5 = 38
crores Therefore revenue of Maggi during Phase 1 of loc
2020-21
Guesstimate
177
Estimate the number of face masks used over a race weekend in Formula 1

Interviewee Notes Case Facts Approach/ Framework

• Make sure to include big
and small budget teams in
computation
• Also, the organisors will
have a lot of people for
themselves
Formula 1
• Number of days taken to
conduct a race = 3 days
• Number of face masks
used/day = 1 mask Participating teams
• Number of face masks
used =Total number of
people * number of masks
used/day * number of days
Big budget team Medium budget team Small budget team

Big budget Me
No of teams Team
team
No of teams 3

Total no of No. of employees/team 1000

employees Percentage of field
employees 10%

No. of people/team 100

Percentage of field
employees Total no. of people 300

No. of face masks used = = 1220 x 1 x 3 = 3660 masks

Observations/Tips/Suggestions
• In an unconventional case, it is a good idea to keep the interviewer in loop at all times
• It is helpful to first draft a structure, then put numbers to it.

(C) Consult Club, IIM Ahmedabad 2020-21

Guesstimate
178
Estimate the number of cycles sold in West Bengal every year

Interviewee Notes Case Facts Approach/ Framework

• Begin by understanding total • Ignore Population of West Bengal
number of people in shared cycle
rural/urban regions ecosystems 10 Cr
• Estimate number of households like Yulu Urban Region
in each region • Include
• Incorporate income brackets to cycles for 3 Cr
divide the households further professional
• Estimate proportion of cycles and personal Urban Households
for each region and income use across
bracket the age 75 Lakh
• Estimate lifespan of cycles groups
• Assuming 4 per household in Urban Upper Middle Lower Upper
and 6 per household in Rural BPL
• Assuming 15-40-40-5 split in Urban income income income income
and 5-30-40-25 split in Rural
Regions 10 Lakh 30 Lakh 30 Lakh 5 Lakh 5 Lakh
• Assuming proportion of cycles per Cycles/
0.1 0.3 0.5 0 0.1
household in each bucket as shown. household
• More children likely to buy in urban
areas than Rural areas for
recreational use. 10 + 15 + 15 + 20 = 60 lakh Cycles in West Benga
• Not considering any second hand
purchases
12 lakh cycles per year Assuming cycle lifesp

Observations/Tips/Suggestions
• Lower Income and BPL can be taken together for a more compact structure
• At the end and during the case, always do a sanity check

(C) Consult Club, IIM Ahmedabad 2020-21