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Lecture 1
Lecture 1
Lecture 1
• Modern financial theories are based on the assumption that firms are
established to serve the interests of their shareholders
Ingredient 1: Ingredient 2:
Capital Budgeting Discount Rate
(project cash flows) (Risk, return, CAPM)
Financing a business
• Suppose you were offered the choice between receiving €100 today, or
receiving €100 next year.
• When you should want the money?
• Suppose you were offered the choice between receiving €100 today, or
receiving €100 next year.
• When you should want the money?
€100 €105
• Choice 2:
Get next year
€100
?
How much should
I want to have
• Choice 2: I set apart?
“discounting” some € in a year
“Present value”
?
Prof. Daniel Metzger (Ph.D.)
Prevent value and future value
• “Simple interest” — you receive interest on your deposit, but do not get
interest on interest
• You start off with €1,000 and receive 4% simple interest per year. What is
the value of your savings account after 1, 2, 3, or t years?
• Let’s denote the original amount that we put on the savings account as P
(the so-called “principal amount”)
• Interest rate = r
A(t) = 40 × t + 1,000
A(t) = r × P × t + P = P × (1 + rt)
A(t) = P × (1 + rt)
A(t)
A straight line
0 t
40 years later
$1 million
Prof. Daniel Metzger (Ph.D.)
Example
First, calculate how much will you have if you earn simple interests
• Every month, save $158; for 40 years
• 10% annual interest rate: equals to monthly interest of 0.83% (=10%/12)
First, calculate how much will you have if you earn simple interests
• Every month, save $158; for 40 years
• 10% annual interest rate: equals to monthly interest of 0.83% (=10%/12)
First, calculate how much will you have if you earn simple interests
• Every month, save $158; for 40 years
• 10% annual interest rate: equals to monthly interest of 0.83% (=10%/12)
First, calculate how much will you have if you earn simple interests
• Every month, save $158; for 40 years
• 10% annual interest rate: equals to monthly interest of 0.83% (=10%/12)
Now, calculate how much will you have if you earn compound interests
→ Meaning that we receive interest both over principal AND over interest earned
(interests over interests)
• Every month, save $158; for 40 years
• 10% annual interest rate: equals to monthly interest of 0.83% (=10%/12)
Now, calculate how much will you have if you earn compound interests
→ Meaning that we receive interest both over principal AND over interest earned
(interests over interests)
• Every month, save $158; for 40 years
• 10% annual interest rate: equals to monthly interest of 0.83% (=10%/12)
Now, calculate how much will you have if you earn compound interests
→ Meaning that we receive interest both over principal AND over interest earned
(interests over interests)
• Every month, save $158; for 40 years
• 10% annual interest rate: equals to monthly interest of 0.83% (=10%/12)
Now, calculate how much will you have if you earn compound interests
→ Meaning that we receive interest both over principal AND over interest earned
(interests over interests)
• Every month, save $158; for 40 years
• 10% annual interest rate: equals to monthly interest of 0.83% (=10%/12)
Now, calculate how much will you have if you earn compound interests
→ Meaning that we receive interest both over principal AND over interest earned
(interests over interests)
• Every month, save $158; for 40 years
• 10% annual interest rate: equals to monthly interest of 0.83% (=10%/12)
How does it look like in a graph if you earn simple vs. compound interest?
…
Simple:
A(t) = P × (1 + rt)
…
Compound:
A(t) = P × (1 + r)t
• The fact whether I will become a millionaire indeed will depend on:
1. The level of the monthly payment
2. The level of the interest rate
3. The lifespan of my savings project
• Assuming (3) cannot be adjusted, which one do you believe has a bigger
impact on the terminal value: (1) The monthly payment, or (2) The
interest rate?
• Future value: How much is a given amount of money worth in the future?
• Two types of interests: Simple vs. Compound
o Compound interests are mostly used in reality
o FV is more sensitive to compound interest rate than to principal amount
• In the year 1626, Peter Minuit purchased Manhattan Island from the
Algonquians for $24, an apparent bargain compared with the price of
Manhattan real estate today.
• If the current value of Manhattan real estate is $344 billion,* did Peter pay
too few for Manhattan?
• In the year 1626, Peter Minuit purchased Manhattan Island from the
Algonquians for $24, an apparent bargain compared with the price of
Manhattan real estate today.
• If the current value of Manhattan real estate is $344 billion,* did Peter pay
too few for Manhattan?
What’s the problem?
1626 2022
$24 Invest somewhere for 396 years, “Future value”
earn a return
?
Current price:
$344
• Assume a 6.5% annual increase in real estate over the last few centuries
FVT = P × ( 1 + r )T
• Assume a 6.5% annual increase in real estate over the last few centuries
FVT = P × ( 1 + r )T
• Assume a 6.5% annual increase in real estate over the last few centuries
FVT = P × ( 1 + r )T
• Suppose you deposit €1,000 in one year, €2,000 in two years, and €4,000 in
three years from now. Assume you get a 4% interest rate. How much do you
get after 5 years, assuming compound interest?
• Suppose you deposit €1,000 in one year, €2,000 in two years, and €4,000 in
three years from now. Assume you get a 4% interest rate. How much do you
get after 5 years, assuming compound interest?
• Suppose you deposit €1,000 in one year, €2,000 in two years, and €4,000 in
three years from now. Assume you get a 4% interest rate. How much do you
get after 5 years, assuming compound interest?
t=0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5
€1,000 FV1 = ?
€2,000 FV2 = ?
€4,000 FV3 = ?
• Alternatively, you can calculate the FV of the three cash flows separately:
Example: You are entitled to receive four times €100: today, next year, in two
years from now, and in three years from now.
0 1 2 3 t
Key question: What’s the present value of these 4 future cash flows?
• Assume that interest rate (= discount rate) is 5%
• First, let’s consider the cash flow of next year
present value equation:
𝐶𝐹𝑡
𝑃𝑉(𝐶𝐹𝑡) =
1+𝑟 𝑡
EUR100
95.24 100
𝑃𝑉1 = 1
1 + 0.05
0 1 2 3 t
EUR100
95.24 100
𝑃𝑉1 = 1
1 + 0.05
0 1 2 3 t
EUR100
100
𝑃𝑉2 =
95.24 1 + 0.05 2
90.70 100
𝑃𝑉3 =
86.38 1 + 0.05 3
0 1 2 3 t
EUR100
95.24
90.70
86.38
0 1 2 3 t
95.24
90.70
86.38
present value that
is equivalent to the
future value
0 1 2 3 t
We pretend we do not want to wait and
calculate a value we would now be happy
with instead of waiting
Prof. Daniel Metzger (Ph.D.)
Present value: Formula
$
𝐶𝐹𝑡
𝑃𝑉 = ,
1+𝑟 𝑡
!"#
C C … C
1. Annuity:
t=0 1 2 T T+1 T+2
time
C C … C C C …
2. Perpetuity: time
t=0 1 2 T T+1 T+2
• “Term loan”
𝐶𝐹
Equals 𝑃𝑉 =
𝑟
• Imagine you will earn €2,000 net per month for the next 40 years. The
relevant annual discount rate is 10%, resulting in 0.8333% per month.
o The PV of the first payout (after one month):
2,000/(1+0.008333)1= €1,983.47
o The PV of the second payout would be €1,967.08,
o etc.
Monthly income
PV
month
Monthly income
PV of your income in 40
years ≈ €37 today.
(2,000/(1+0.008333)480)
Negligible!
PV
month
• If you pay or receive fixed amounts per period during a finite time horizon
$
𝐶𝐹1 𝐶𝐹2 𝐶𝐹𝑇 𝐶𝐹𝑡
𝑃𝑉 = + + ⋯+ = ,
1+𝑟 1 1+𝑟 2 1+𝑟 𝑇 1+𝑟 𝑡
!"#
𝐶𝐹 𝐶𝐹 𝐶𝐹
𝑃𝑉 = + + ⋯+
1+𝑟 1 1+𝑟 2 1+𝑟 𝑇
1 1 1
= 𝐶𝐹× + + ⋯+
1+𝑟 1 1+𝑟 2 1+𝑟 𝑇
1
1− 𝐶𝐹 1
1+𝑟 𝑇
= 𝐶𝐹× = × 1−
𝑟 𝑟 1+𝑟 𝑇
• We can build an office building for $20m. The office building has an
estimated life of 20 years. One customer expressed interest in leasing the
building for its entire life for $1.7m per year. The discount rate for the real
estate company is 6%.
• Should you build the office building?
• We can build an office building for $20m. The office building has an
estimated life of 20 years. One customer expressed interest in leasing the
building for its entire life for $1.7m per year. The discount rate for the real
estate company is 6%.
• Should you build the office building?
• We can build an office building for $20m. The office building has an
estimated life of 20 years. One customer expressed interest in leasing the
building for its entire life for $1.7m per year. The discount rate for the real
estate company is 6%.
• Should you build the office building?
• Solution:
o First, be clear that this is an annuity: constant CFs for 20 years.
1
1−
1 + 0.06 20
o PV of annuity: = 1.7× = 19.5 (𝑚𝑖𝑙𝑙𝑖𝑜𝑛)
0.06
• Now assume that after 20 years, the building can be sold for $4.5 m. Should
you build the office building now?
• Now assume that after 20 years, the building can be sold for $4.5 m. Should
you build the office building now?
• Solution:
o The PV of receiving $4.5m after 20 years at a 6% discount rate:
4.5
𝑃𝑉 = = 1.4 (𝑚𝑖𝑙𝑙𝑖𝑜𝑛)
1 + 0.06 20
o Add this to our previous NPV (-0.5) and now have an NPV of $0.9
million.
“Interest of 12%
You see
compounded monthly”
𝒓
You know Nominal annual rate (r) periodic rate =
𝒎
(m is compounding period)
𝒓
You know Nominal annual rate (r) periodic rate =
𝒎
(m is compounding period)
𝒓 𝒎
Effective annual rate (EAR) = (𝟏 + ) −𝟏
𝒎