Journal of Sensory Studies - 2010 - MONTES VILLANUEVA - ESTIMATING SENSORY SHELF LIFE OF CHOCOLATE AND CARROT CUPCAKES

joss_256 260..
279
DOI: 10.1111/j.1745-459X.2009.00256.x
ESTIMATING SENSORY SHELF LIFE OF CHOCOLATE AND

CARROT CUPCAKES USING ACCEPTANCE TESTS
NILDA DORIS MONTES VILLANUEVA1,3 and MARCO ANTONIO TRINDADE2

1
CENTRUM Católica – Centro de Negocios
Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú
Jr. Daniel Alomía Robles 125-129, Los Álamos de Monterrico – Santiago de Surco,
Lima, Peru
2
Faculdade de Zootecnia e Engenharia de Alimentos cx.
USP – Universidade de São Paulo – FZEA
São Paulo, Brazil
Accepted for Publication June 30, 2009
ABSTRACT
This study determined the sensory shelf life of a commercial brand of

chocolate and carrot cupcakes, aiming at increasing the current 120 days of
shelf life to 180. Appearance, texture, flavor and overall quality of cakes stored
at six different storage times were evaluated by 102 consumers. The data were
analyzed by analysis of variance and linear regression. For both flavors, the
texture presented a greater loss in acceptance during the storage period,
showing an acceptance mean close to indifference on the hedonic scale at 120
days. Nevertheless, appearance, flavor and overall quality stayed acceptable
up to 150 days. The end of shelf life was estimated at about 161 days for
chocolate cakes and 150 days for carrot cakes. This study showed that the
current 120 days of shelf life can be extended to 150 days for carrot cake and
to 160 days for chocolate cake. However, the 180 days of shelf life desired by
the company were not achieved.
PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS
This research shows the adequacy of using sensory acceptance tests to

determine the shelf life of two food products (chocolate and carrot cupcakes).
This practical application is useful because the precise determination of the
shelf life of a food product is of vital importance for its commercial success.
The maximum storage time should always be evaluated in the development or
3
Corresponding author. TEL: +51-1-3133400; FAX: +51-1-3133410; EMAIL: nmontes@pucp.edu.pe
Journal of Sensory Studies 25 (2010) 260–279.

260 © 2010, The Author(s)
Journal compilation © 2010, Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
1745459x, 2010, 2, Downloaded from https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1745-459X.2009.00256.x by National Institutes Of Health Malaysia, Wiley Online Library on [03/03/2024]. See the Terms and Conditions (https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/terms-and-conditions) on Wiley Online Library for rules of use; OA articles are governed by the applicable Creative Commons License
SHELF LIFE OF CHOCOLATE AND CARROT CUPCAKES 261
reformulation of new products, changes in packing or storage conditions. Once

the physical–chemical and microbiological stability of a product is guaranteed,
sensorial changes that could affect consumer acceptance will determine the
end of the shelf life of a food product. Thus, the use of sensitive and reliable
methods to estimate the sensory shelf life of a product is very important.
Findings show the importance of determining the shelf life of each product
separately and to avoid using the shelf time estimated for a specific product on
other, similar products.
INTRODUCTION
Among bakery products, cakes have been acquiring an increasing

importance referring to consumption and commercialization in Brazil (Mos-
catto et al. 2004). The volume of industrialized cake sales in Brazil increased
by 25% between 2004 and 2005. One of the reasons for such growth is the
place that this product category has been conquering in self-service stores,
which have been investing a lot in the exposition and popularization of
industrialized cakes. Also, a search for greater practicality, an increase in
consumer income, more competitive prices and a variety of products offered
by the industry have been pointed out as additional factors for the category
good performance (ABIMA 2007). The cupcake segment is responsible for
66.8% of the sales volume of the category and it is increasing, mainly as a
function of more affordable prices. Cupcakes for children stand out in the
category, but there is also an increase in the products for adults that target
singles. Chocolate cakes represent up to 50% of the sales in this class of
product (ABIMA 2007).
Another important factor favoring the great volume of the sales of indus-
trialized cakes is its longer shelf life compared with homemade cakes sold in
bakeries and grocery stores (ABITRIGO 2007). This longer shelf life adds
greater convenience and practicality to the product, allowing the consumer to
have a regular stock of the product at home. Furthermore, it allows distribution
to far-off centers of consumption and even export to other countries.
The precise determination of the shelf life of the food product is of vital
importance to its commercial success, and it should exceed at least the
minimum time that is required for its distribution, from the processing up to
the final consumer (Schmidt and Bouma 1992). However, the need for such
knowledge is not restricted only to distribution. The maximum storage time
should always be evaluated in the development or reformulation of new prod-
ucts, changes in packing or storage conditions. For the entrepreneur who needs
to comply with regulations and the legal requirements of package labeling, the
use of sensitive and reliable methods to estimate the shelf life of the products
262 N.D. MONTES VILLANUEVA and M.A. TRINDADE
is very important. Many times, information is taken from literature or from

similar products commercialized in the market. Such practice is not adequate
given that there are many variables involved that affect the shelf life of a
product. Among such variables, we can name variations in the environmental
and sanitary conditions, the variability inherent in the raw materials, the
processing and packing utilized by different companies, as well as the storage
and distribution conditions that exist until the final consumer is reached
(Witting De Penna 2005).
In order to avoid problems in the consumer market, once the physical–
chemical and microbiological stability of a product is guaranteed, sensorial
changes that could occur during storage and distribution, and the implications
of such alterations in the acceptance of the food product by the consumers,
should be evaluated.
Storage stability or the shelf life of baked products can be defined as
the maintenance of the sensory and physical characteristics associated with
its freshness, such as crumb tenderness, compressibility and moistness, by
preventing alterations in the product related with staling during storage
(Paeschke 1997; Baixauli et al. 2008). Sensory evaluation is a powerful tool
to establish the shelf life of most perishable and semiperishable foods (Fu
and Labuza 1997), such as industrialized cakes. Its efficiency resides in the
fact that modifications suffered by the product during storage are captured in
the modification of one or more sensorial parameters, being taste, smell and
appearance as the most obvious criteria. Such changes cause the deteriora-
tion of the product and the consequent decrease in acceptability, until it
reaches the extreme case of rejection of the food product by consumers
(Witting De Penna 2005). According to Hough et al. (2003), food products
do not have a sensory shelf life of their own; rather, it will depend on the
interaction of the food product with the consumer. For this reason, consum-
ers are the most adequate tool to determine the sensory shelf life of a food
product.
It should be stressed that food safety precedes the sensory acceptance. It
is possible that a food product becomes harmful to consumer health; e.g.,
because of the multiplication and/or production of toxins by pathogenic micro-
organisms even before perceptible variations appear from the sensory point of
view. Therefore, sensory methods should be applied to determine the shelf life
of a food product, only when the harmlessness of the food product to the
consumers is assured.
The objective of the present study was to determine the sensory shelf life
of a commercial brand of chocolate and carrot cupcakes, using acceptance
tests to evaluate the changes of the sensory characteristics produced by the
storage time, in order to verify the possibility of increasing the current 120
days adopted by the manufacturer to 180 days of shelf life.
MATERIALS AND METHODS
Samples
Samples of two cupcakes flavors (chocolate and carrot, both with a
chocolate filling) of a commercial brand known in the Brazilian consumer
market were evaluated. Cupcakes were stored at room temperature with
storage times of approximately 0, 30, 60, 120, 150 and 180 days. Both flavors
presented the same net weight of 40 g each. During storage, products were
kept in their commercial packages, consisting of the following: each cupcake
with a paper mold as a base was individually wrapped in a multilayer film with
aluminum foil. Eighteen individual units were packed in a secondary display-
type cardboard usually used for the presentation at the sales point. In addition,
these display-type cardboards were packed in pairs in a cardboard box, each
box containing 36 units.
It should be stressed that the products already had their shelf life assured
in relation to the microbiological parameters previously determined by the
company, and the microbiological stability exceeded 180 days of storage.
Consumers
Consumers were recruited from the Sao Paulo University (USP), Piras-
sununga, Brazil. Teachers, workers and students were invited to participate in
the test by filling out a recruitment form to select usual cake consumers. The
selection criteria was that they like chocolate and carrot cakes and present a
minimum frequency of consumption equal to “moderate” (once or twice a
week). A total of 102 regular consumers took part in the consumer panel. For
the carrot flavor, 36 consumers were recruited, 75% of them were female and
the remaining 25% were male with ages ranging between 17 and 36 years old.
On the other hand, for the chocolate flavor, 66 consumers participated in the
study, 29% of them were male and 71% female, with ages ranging between 17
and 42 years old. The smaller number of individuals in the experiment for the
carrot cupcakes was because of the limited quantity of samples that were
available for the test.
Experimental Design
A randomized complete block experimental design was used to present
samples to consumers; the subjects were considered as blocks.
Affective Sensory Methods

Sensory tests to evaluate the acceptance of cakes were carried out in the
Sensory Analysis Laboratory of FZEA/USP in different sessions for each
flavor. In each session, each group of consumers evaluated samples monadi-

cally corresponding to the six storage times. Consumers were accommodated
in individual tasting booths, where they received instructions about the use of
the scale, the nature of the products and the type of evaluation to be carried out.
Samples were served under white light, in disposable white plastic plates
coded with three-digit random numbers. After the evaluation of appearance,
consumers were requested to taste the product and subsequently evaluate how
much they liked or disliked each sample in relation to texture, flavor and
overall quality, using the 9-point hedonic scale (1 = extremely disliked,
5 = neither liked nor disliked, 9 = extremely liked). Cupcakes were served in
whole, stripped from the primary plastic wrapping, but maintaining the paper
cupcake liner. A break was given between the third and fourth samples in order
to minimize the order of presentation of the samples and carry-over effects,
and to avoid sensory fatigue of the respondents by the consecutive evaluation
of six samples. After the break and before continuing with the sample evalu-
ations, consumers filled out a questionnaire containing general questions con-
cerning their cake consumption habits. Finally, they were asked to evaluate
their intention to purchase the tested products, using a 5-point structured scale
(1 = certainly will not buy, 5 = certainly will buy).
Analytical Data
For both cakes, the moisture content was determined using an Ohaus
MB35 moisture analyzer (Pine Brook, NJ). The analysis was carried out in
duplicate.
Statistical Analysis
The acceptance responses of the evaluated attributes were analyzed by
analysis of variance (ANOVA) (P = 5%), considering the effects of consumers
and sample storage time in the statistical model. For the estimation of the shelf
life, the practical shelf life (PSL) method was used (P = 5%), (Jul 1984). The
statistical data analysis was realized using the StatisticaTM software (Statsoft
Inc., Tulsa, OK).
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
Chocolate Cake
The ANOVA results indicated that the storage time significantly affected
the flavor, texture and overall quality of the products, resulting in a loss of
acceptance. However, it did not influence the appearance of the cakes
(P = 5%).
TABLE 1.
MEANS AND STANDARD DEVIATIONS (SDs) OF THE APPEARANCE, TEXTURE, FLAVOR
AND OVERALL QUALITY SCORES FOR EACH STORAGE TIME (n = 66 CONSUMERS)
Storage Appearance Texture Flavor Overall quality

time (days)
Mean SD Mean SD Mean SD Mean SD
0 7.8 1.1 7.4 1.75 7.1 1.69 7.3 1.65

30 7.2 1.6 7.4 1.34 7.4 1.30 7.4 1.19
60 7.2 1.3 6.7 1.52 7.1 1.30 7.0 1.14
120 6.4 1.6 5.2 1.70 5.5 1.83 5.4 1.74
150 6.4 1.6 4.5 1.86 5.4 1.94 5.2 1.75
180 6.4 1.5 4.2 1.86 4.9 1.84 4.7 1.87
Table 1 presents the means and standard deviations (SDs) of the attributes
evaluated for each storage time. It shows that in 60 days of storage, the means
of flavor and overall quality stayed in the range of acceptance. However, the
texture presented a slight decrease, and its level of acceptance was close to
indifference (neither liked/nor disliked) by the 120th day in storage. Texture
acceptance entered into the rejection strip (disliked slightly) by the 150th day.
On the other hand, flavor and overall quality was still in the acceptance range
at 150 days, and they entered the rejection strip only in 180 days. In Table 1,
it can be clearly observed that texture was the attribute with a greater loss of
acceptance over the storage period in comparison with flavor and overall
quality.
Shelf-Life Estimation
Different methodologies could be used to determine the shelf life of a
food product, using consumer data (Giménez et al. 2007). In the failure cut-off
point methodology, shelf life is determined as the time at which consumers
express the first significant reduction in the overall acceptability of the product.
However, it does not mean that consumers would reject the product (Giménez
et al. 2007). According to Muñoz et al. (1993), sensory shelf life could also be
determined by the time that is required for the overall acceptance level of the
product to be reduced up to a certain predetermined value, e.g., 6.0 in a 9-point
structured hedonic scale.
In the present study, according to the request of the manufacturer, an
acceptance mean of 5.0 (neither liked nor disliked) on a 9-point hedonic scale
was considered to be the quality limit. This is also the value recommended by
Stone and Sidel (1993).
First of all, and in order to estimate the shelf life, a dispersion diagram of
overall quality means against storage time was obtained. Next, a linear regres-
sion was performed. The end of shelf life was determined as the storage time
at which the quality limit decreased to the pre-established value of 5.0 (Gacula
Jr. 1975; Waletzko and Labuza 1976). Shelf life determined in this manner is
called PSL, being longer than the one called high quality life (HQL). Many
companies use the time of a 0.5-point decrease in the hedonic scale as the HQL
and the time of a 1.5-point decrease as the PSL, establishing PSL as the time
of product validity.
The following is the model used to estimate the shelf-life of the chocolate
cupcake obtained from the overall quality acceptance data.
Overall Quality = 7.6452 − 0.0164 × Time
The results of the t-test to validate the model showed high statistical
significance for the slope (P = 0.00103), indicating that the empirical relation-
ship of acceptance means versus storage time was linear, with a loss of 0.0164
points per storage day in the overall quality acceptance. Linear relationships
between the acceptance means and the storage time were also found in the
study of “alfajores” (Gámbaro et al. 2004), concentrated and frozen orange
juice (Pinto 2006), natural passion fruit isotonic drink (De Marchi et al. 2003),
brown pan bread (Salvador et al. 2006) and whole pan bread (Giménez et al.
2008) among others.
The coefficient of determination (R2 = 0.95, R2adjust = 0.935) indicates that
95% of the acceptance data variation was explained by the model, meaning that
the model was good. According to Burgard and Kuznicki (1990), the values of
the coefficient of determination in the models considering sensory and instru-
mental measures in function of time that are above 0.6 are considered good
enough. Figure 1 presents the fitted model with a confidence interval of 95%; it
can be observed that for each storage time, all acceptance means were located
inside the interval, confirming the validity of the fitted model. Therefore, this
model can be utilized to estimate the shelf life of the cupcakes, including the
estimation of acceptance for nonevaluated storage times (90 days, for instance).
Considering indifference (score 5 in the 9-point hedonic scale) as the
quality limit of product acceptance, the estimated shelf life was 161 days. It
means that the shelf life can be extended from the current 120 days to a
maximum of 161 days. In a shelf-life study, De Marchi et al. (2003) also
utilized score 5 on the 9-point hedonic scale as the acceptance limit to establish
the shelf life of a passion fruit isotonic beverage stored at room temperature
and under refrigeration during 66 and 141 days, respectively. Results of the
study showed that the refrigerated beverage maintained good acceptance
during the whole storage period, while the one stored at room temperature
presented scores below 5 in the sensory evaluation with scarce 15 days of
storage.
Correlation: r = -.9737
8.0
7.5
Overall Acceptance
7.0
6.5
6.0
5.5
5.0
4.5
-20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200
Storage Time (days) 95% confidence
FIG. 1. FITTED MODEL AND THE 95% CONFIDENCE INTERVAL TO ESTIMATE

THE SHELF LIFE OF CHOCOLATE CAKES
Figure 2 shows the tendency acceptance for the texture, flavor and overall
quality of the chocolate cake over time. The estimations of the acceptance
means for 90 and 210 days were added in this figure using the fitted models for
each attribute versus storage time. It can be observed in the figure that texture
had a greater loss of acceptance during the storage period, when compared
with flavor and overall quality, with an increased difference in the level of
acceptance between texture and the other two attributes, by the 150th day of
storage. Changes in the textural properties during the storage time were also
observed in other studies of baked products. Baixauli et al. (2008) compared
the effect of replacing an increasing proportion of wheat flour with four
different levels of resistant starch (RS) on the textural properties of the muffins
freshly baked and stored for 2 weeks, and they also assessed their sensory shelf
life. In their study, changes in the textural parameter values along the storage
time were smaller at higher RS levels. With regard to hardness, the muffins
with 5, 10 and 15% RS behaved in the same way, while the muffins with 20%
RS were always softer than the other muffins and the evolution of their textural
parameters over the storage time changed less. Wetzel et al. (1997) also evalu-
ated the sensory properties of four cupcake formulations with encapsulated
aspartame (APM). The results of their study showed that the hardness of
8.0
7.5
7.0
6.5
Acceptance Means
6.0
5.5
5.0
4.5
4.0
3.5 Texture
Flavor
3.0 Overall Quality
0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240
Storage time (days)
FIG. 2. LINE GRAPH SHOWING THE TENDENCY OF ACCEPTANCE ALONG THE

STORAGE TIME FOR THE TEXTURE, FLAVOR AND OVERALL QUALITY OF
CHOCOLATE CAKES
TABLE 2.
CONSUMER’S INTENT TO PURCHASE (IN %) FOR EACH
STORAGE TIME
Purchase intent Storage time (days)
0 30 60 120 150 180
Certainly will not buy 4.8 4.8 0.0 14.3 30.2 38.1
Probably will not buy 14.3 1.6 17.2 34.9 30.2 34.9
May or may not buy 11.1 15.9 28.1 39.7 28.6 20.6
Probably will buy 23.8 46.0 32.8 9.5 9.5 6.3
Certainly will buy 46.0 31.7 21.9 1.6 1.6 0.0
the nonsugar-added cake and the full sucrose cake increased significantly
(P ⱕ 0.05) over the storage time.
Purchase Intent
The purchase intent of consumers (%) for each storage time is shown in
Table 2. It can be clearly seen that the purchase intent decreased as the storage
time increased. It can also be observed in Table 2 that 46% of the interviewed
consumers affirmed that they will certainly purchase fresh (0 days of storage)
TABLE 3.
CHANGES IN MOISTURE CONTENT OF CHOCOLATE
CUPCAKES DURING STORAGE TIME (n = 2 REPLICATES)
Storage Moisture Standard

time (days) content (%) deviation (%)
46 20.3 0.58
75 19.4 0.40
107 19.5 0.56
135 18.7 0.17
162 18.4 0.04
196 18.5 0.28
cakes. However, this percentage decreased to 22% for cakes stored for 60 days
and to less than 2% for cakes stocked for 120 days or more. According to
Fakhouri and Grosso (2003), score 2 (probably will not buy) in a 5-point
purchase intent scale represents the limit of consumer acceptance. Following
this criterion, the majority of consumers would be already rejecting to pur-
chase chocolate cupcakes with a chocolate filling from 120 days on.
These results indicate that consumers considered important the cupcakes’
sensory characteristics to assign both their intent to purchase and acceptability
scores of the product. In a shelf-life study of apple baby food, storage time had
a significant effect in the loss of acceptance of color and overall acceptability
by consumers (Gámbaro et al. 2006). In another study with pears “Flor de
Invierno” (Pyrus communis L.) variety, the extended storage time under a
refrigerated controlled atmosphere caused changes in the fruit that led to a
lower level of firmness, lower acceptance scores and, consequently, a shorter
sensory shelf life (Salvador et al. 2007). Yet, another study with brown pan
bread showed that the acceptance of this product decreased over time as a
result of the loss of freshness during the storage time (Salvador et al. 2006).
Moisture Content
The moisture content were negatively correlated to time (r = -0.92,
P = 0.008). The chocolate cupcakes lost 1.8% humidity over 5 months (150
days) decreasing from 20.3% at 46 days to 18.5% at 196 days (Table 3). A
linear regression (Fig. 3) was performed on moisture content data versus
storage time to see if the changes in moisture content during storage were
significant. The results of the t-test showed a high statistical significance of the
slope (b = -0.0122, P = 0.012957), indicating that the moisture content of the
chocolate cupcakes decreased gradually during storage time, losing 0.0122%
in moisture content each day they were stored. Thus, according to the fitted
Moisture content = 20.601 - .0122 * Time

Correlation: r = -.92, R2= 0.85, R2Adjust = 0.78
20.8
20.4
Moisture content (%)
20.0
19.6
19.2
18.8
18.4
18.0
40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220
Storage time (days) 95% confidence
FIG. 3. FITTED MODEL AND THE 95% CONFIDENCE INTERVAL ON MOISTURE

CONTENT VERSUS STORAGE TIME FOR CHOCOLATE CUPCAKES
model (Fig. 3), for the estimated expiration date (t = 161 days), the chocolate
cakes contained a humidity level of about 18.6%. This information could be
employed for quality control because monitoring the humidity levels of the
cupcakes could be used to recognize the acceptance level of the product.
Carrot Cake
The ANOVA results indicated that the storage time influenced signifi-
cantly in the loss of acceptance of the carrot cake appearance, flavor, texture
and overall quality (P = 5%). In Table 4, the means and SDs of the evaluated
attributes are presented. It is observed that appearance was the attribute least
influenced by the storage time. The acceptance level of the cakes’ appearance
remained the same at 60 days. It showed a 1.0-point decrease on the hedonic
scale by the 120th day, reaching a level close to indifference (neither like/nor
dislike) in 180 days. With respect to texture, flavor and overall quality, accep-
tance was lost gradually. In the case of texture, the indifference level was
reached in 120 days and the rejection level in 150 days. However, in the case
of flavor and overall quality, the rejection level was reached only in 180 days.
Similar to the results of the chocolate cake, the attribute that most rapidly lost
acceptance over time was texture.
TABLE 4.
MEANS AND STANDARD DEVIATIONS (SDs) OF THE APPEARANCE, TEXTURE, FLAVOR
AND OVERALL QUALITY SCORES FOR EACH STORAGE TIME (n = 36 CONSUMERS)
Storage Appearance Texture Flavor Overall quality

time (days)
Mean SD Mean SD Mean SD Mean SD
0 6.9 1.57 6.9 1.81 7.1 2.19 7.2 1.72

30 7.3 1.51 7.3 1.21 7.2 1.23 7.4 1.11
60 7.2 1.15 6.8 1.59 7.0 1.45 7.0 1.28
120 6.4 1.52 4.9 1.86 5.2 1.91 5.2 1.67
150 6.4 1.64 4.8 2.18 5.5 2.12 5.2 1.97
180 5.4 2.00 4.0 1.89 4.8 1.86 4.3 2.00
Shelf-Life Estimation
The following is the model used to estimate the shelf life of the carrot
cake, based on the overall quality acceptance data.
Overall Quality = 7.6464 − 0.0177 × Time
Similar to the chocolate cake, the results of the t-test to validate the model
showed a high statistical significance of the slope (P = 0.00206), indicating
that each storage day caused a fall of 0.0177 points on the hedonic scale for
overall quality acceptance. The coefficient of determination value (R2 = 0.93,
R2adjust = 0.91) indicates that the fitted model explains 93% of the acceptance
data variation. Figure 4 presents the fitted model with a 95% confidence
interval; it can be observed that all overall acceptance means were located
inside the interval, confirming in this manner the validity of the model. Thus,
this model may be used to estimate the carrot cake shelf life, including the
estimation of acceptance for nonevaluated storage times.
Considering indifference (score 5 in the 9-point hedonic scale) as the
quality limit of product acceptance, the shelf life of the carrot cake with a
chocolate filling was 150 days. It means that the shelf life can be extended
from the current 120 days to a maximum of 150 days.
The estimated shelf life of the carrot cake was 11 days less than that of the
chocolate cake. Such difference, although small when compared with the total
validity period, could be because of the less stability that the carrot flavor has
in comparison with the chocolate flavor. Moreover, the industry uses natural
carrots to make these cakes to give them a better taste. Thus, the natural
components of the carrot flavor, especially the beta carotene, could probably
be oxidized during the storage which could lead to a loss of acceptance in
flavor and overall quality. On the other hand, according to Jones (2000),
Correlation: r = -.9627
8.0
7.5
7.0
Overall Acceptance
6.5
6.0
5.5
5.0
4.5
4.0
-20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200
Storage Time (days) 95% confidence
FIG. 4. FITTED MODEL AND THE 95% CONFIDENCE INTERVAL TO ESTIMATE

THE SHELF LIFE OF CARROT CAKES
chocolate not only adds a unique flavor and texture but also encloses the
product in a fatty barrier that reduces the rate of moisture loss from the cake
and thereby assists in extending shelf life.
The difference in the estimated shelf life between the two types of
cupcakes shows the importance of determining the shelf life of each product
independently, in order to avoid using the estimation of a specific product in a
generalized manner for a class of similar products.
Figure 5 shows the tendency over time of carrot cake acceptance con-
cerning appearance, texture, flavor and overall quality. Estimation of the
acceptance means for 90 and 210 days were added in this figure, using the
fitted models for each attribute. It is observed that appearance maintained
acceptance up to 150 days. Similar to the chocolate cake, texture showed the
greater acceptance losses over the storage period than flavor and overall
quality. It reached the rejection level at 120 days, while the other attributes still
remained acceptable at 150 days.
Purchase Intent
Table 5 shows the results of the evaluation of the purchase intent of the
consumers (in %) in relation to each storage time. Similar to the chocolate
8.0
7.5
7.0
6.5
Acceptance Means
6.0
5.5
5.0
4.5
4.0
3.5
Appearance
3.0 Texture
0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 Flavor
Overall Quality
Storage time (days)
FIG. 5. LINE GRAPH SHOWING THE TENDENCY OF ACCEPTANCE ALONG

THE STORAGE TIME FOR THE TEXTURE, FLAVOR AND OVERALL QUALITY OF
CARROT CAKE
TABLE 5.
CONSUMER’S INTENT TO PURCHASE (IN %) FOR EACH
STORAGE TIME
Purchase intent Storage time (days)
0 30 60 120 150 180
Certainly will not buy 2.9 2.9 0.0 20.0 22.9 40.0
Probably will not buy 8.6 2.9 14.3 34.3 20.0 37.1
May or may not buy 28.6 25.7 31.4 34.3 34.3 17.1
Probably will buy 28.6 31.4 37.1 11.4 17.1 0.0
Certainly will buy 31.4 37.1 17.1 0.0 5.7 5.7
cake, it was observed that the intent to purchase for the carrot cake clearly
decreased over time. When the cake was evaluated fresh (0 days), 31.4% of the
interviewed consumers manifested that they would certainly buy the cake. The
same figure dropped to 17.1% in 60 days and reached levels lower than 6% in
120 days.
These results show the importance of establishing a shelf life to secure
high levels of acceptance, mainly when consumer fidelity is addressed. The
consumer may not repeat to purchase a certain food product if he/she perceives
an unacceptable quality in the purchased product. As previously stated, some
TABLE 6.
CHANGES IN MOISTURE CONTENT OF CARROT
CUPCAKES DURING THE STORAGE TIME
(n = 2 REPLICATES)
Storage Moisture Standard

time (days) content (%) deviation (%)
42 20.3 0.14
82 19.2 0.38
119 19.2 0.24
133 18.1 0.09
166 17.6 0.22
196 16.6 0.06
companies utilize a 1.5-point decrease on the hedonic scale as the end of shelf
life of a product. However, the use of the indifference level (score 5 in the
9-point hedonic scale) as a quality limit to the acceptance of a product could
be an option for the industry in establishing its shelf life. According to the
results obtained in the present study, after 150 days of storage – a period close
to the quality limit – the intent to purchase for both cake flavors tested by the
consumers reduced drastically. In spite of this, a company may accept a higher
loss of sensorial quality in order to label the product with a longer validity,
looking for other benefits, such as a search for far-away markets (shipping
exports by sea, for instance) and a reduction in the return of products by
retailers because of the expiration dates.
Moisture Content
Similar to the results of the chocolate cake, the moisture content were
negatively correlated to time (r = -0.97, P = 0.001). The carrot cake lost 3.7%
of humidity over 5 months (154 days), having decreased from 20.3% in 42
days to 16.6% in 196 days (Table 6). Similar to the chocolate cake, the results
of the t-test for the fitted model on moisture versus storage time (Fig. 6)
showed a high statistical significance of the slope (b = -0.023, P = 0.00173),
indicating that the moisture content of the carrot cupcakes decreased gradually,
losing 0.023% of humidity for each day of storage. These results show that the
loss of moisture for the carrot cupcakes was twice that of chocolate cupcakes,
suggesting that this faster rate of decrease may be the cause of the different
sensory shelf life between the two products. The loss of humidity of the cakes
during the storage period – indicative of the staling process associated with
bakery products – produced an increase in hardness perceived by the consum-
ers. This explains why the texture presented a greater loss in acceptance during
storage period. Additionally, according to the fitted model on moisture content
Moisture content = 21.297 - .0227 * Time

Correlation: r = -.966, R²= .933, R²adjust = .916
20.5
20.0
19.5
19.0
Moisture content (%)
18.5
18.0
17.5
17.0
16.5
16.0
20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220
Storage time (days) 95% confidence
FIG. 6. FITTED MODEL AND THE 95% CONFIDENCE INTERVAL ON MOISTURE

CONTENT VERSUS STORAGE TIME FOR CARROT CUPCAKES
versus storage time, for the estimated expiration date (t = 150 days), the carrot
cakes contained a humidity level of about 17.9%, close 1% less than the
chocolate cakes. This would explain the shorter sensory shelf life of the carrot
cakes in comparison with the chocolate cakes.
Consumption Habits Questionnaire

Important information about the habits and preferences of the consumers
participating in the test were extracted from the analysis of the results of the
questionnaire. The results in Table 7 show that 44% of the consumers inter-
viewed presented a preference for chocolate flavor and 47% liked both flavors
equally. In terms of the consumption of cakes in general, 38% reported to
consume it at a tea time, and the flavor with a highest frequency of consump-
tion was chocolate (65%). The reason given by 57% of the customers inter-
viewed for the purchase of cupcakes was its practicality.
CONCLUSIONS
The present study shows that storage time significantly influenced the
acceptance of the texture, taste and overall quality of the two tested flavors of
TABLE 7.
DATA RELATED TO CONSUMPTION HABITS AND
PREFERENCES OF THE CONSUMERS INTERVIEWED
(IN %)
Questions Responses
(%)
Preference on the tested cake flavors

Chocolate 44
Carrot 9
Both equally 47
Consumption habits*
Breakfast 22
Tea time 38
Any time 36
Others 4
Cake flavor with a highest consumption frequency*
Orange 14
Chocolate 65
Coconut 2
Corn 7
Others 12
Reasons to buy cupcakes*
Practicality 57.7
Price 9.6
Variety of flavors 16.7
It is found in any supermarket or grocery store 12.2
Others 3.8
Preferred brand
Ana Maria 29.4

Bauducco 12.7
Pullman 15.7
Panco 12.7
Parmalat 7.8
Laura 2.0
Renata 2.0
Dona Benta 1.0
Do not know or do not have any preference 16.7
* Data expressed in % = (number of answers correspondent to the

item/total number of answers) ¥ 100; each person could mark
multiple categories of the answer.
cupcakes (P = 5%), clearly indicating that consumers consider such attributes

as important both in their purchasing decision and in their acceptance/rejection
of the product.
The results presented showed that for both flavors, texture was the
attribute that lost acceptance most rapidly over time, presenting an indifference
level on the hedonic scale at 120 days. In contrast, even at 150 days, appear-
ance, flavor and overall quality still remained acceptable. Appearance was the
least affected attribute by storage time.
Another interesting result of the present study was to verify the differ-
ences in the estimation of shelf life for two cake flavors. It showed the
importance of determining the shelf life of each product independently,
without generalizing the shelf life of one specific product to a whole class of
similar products.
The PSL method showed its adequacy to estimate the shelf life of cup-
cakes. The end of shelf life was estimated at about 161 days for chocolate
cakes and 150 days for carrot cakes. The fitted models for shelf life estimations
showed that carrot cakes presented a deterioration velocity slightly higher than
chocolate cakes, presenting a difference of 11 days in the estimation of the end
of the shelf life.
Finally, the present study showed that the end of the shelf lives of the
tested products could be extended from the current 120 days to 150 days in the
case of carrot cakes and 160 days for chocolate cakes, without reaching,
however, the 180 days desired by the company.
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Journal of Sensory Studies - 2010 - MONTES VILLANUEVA - ESTIMATING SENSORY SHELF LIFE OF CHOCOLATE AND CARROT CUPCAKES

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joss_256 260..

ESTIMATING SENSORY SHELF LIFE OF CHOCOLATE AND

NILDA DORIS MONTES VILLANUEVA1,3 and MARCO ANTONIO TRINDADE2

Accepted for Publication June 30, 2009

This study determined the sensory shelf life of a commercial brand of

This research shows the adequacy of using sensory acceptance tests to

Journal of Sensory Studies 25 (2010) 260–279.

reformulation of new products, changes in packing or storage conditions. Once

Among bakery products, cakes have been acquiring an increasing

is very important. Many times, information is taken from literature or from

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Affective Sensory Methods

flavor. In each session, each group of consumers evaluated samples monadi-

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

Storage Appearance Texture Flavor Overall quality

0 7.8 1.1 7.4 1.75 7.1 1.69 7.3 1.65

Overall Quality = 7.6452 − 0.0164 × Time

FIG. 1. FITTED MODEL AND THE 95% CONFIDENCE INTERVAL TO ESTIMATE

FIG. 2. LINE GRAPH SHOWING THE TENDENCY OF ACCEPTANCE ALONG THE

Purchase intent Storage time (days)

0 30 60 120 150 180

Storage Moisture Standard

Moisture content = 20.601 - .0122 * Time

FIG. 3. FITTED MODEL AND THE 95% CONFIDENCE INTERVAL ON MOISTURE

Storage Appearance Texture Flavor Overall quality

0 6.9 1.57 6.9 1.81 7.1 2.19 7.2 1.72

Overall Quality = 7.6464 − 0.0177 × Time

FIG. 4. FITTED MODEL AND THE 95% CONFIDENCE INTERVAL TO ESTIMATE

FIG. 5. LINE GRAPH SHOWING THE TENDENCY OF ACCEPTANCE ALONG

Purchase intent Storage time (days)

0 30 60 120 150 180

Storage Moisture Standard

Moisture content = 21.297 - .0227 * Time

FIG. 6. FITTED MODEL AND THE 95% CONFIDENCE INTERVAL ON MOISTURE

Consumption Habits Questionnaire

Preference on the tested cake flavors

Ana Maria 29.4

* Data expressed in % = (number of answers correspondent to the

cupcakes (P = 5%), clearly indicating that consumers consider such attributes

ABIMA. 2007. Associação Brasileira das Indústrias de Massas Alimentícias.

GÁMBARO, A., GIMÉNEZ, A., VARELA, P., GARITTA, L. and HOUGH,

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