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Nuvama Sees 26% UPSIDE in CreditAccess Grameen Beat On Operating
Nuvama Sees 26% UPSIDE in CreditAccess Grameen Beat On Operating
Nuvama Sees 26% UPSIDE in CreditAccess Grameen Beat On Operating
CreditAccess Grameen
Beat on operating metrics; maintained guidance
• CreditAccess Grameen (CREDAG) reported yet another quarter of stellar operating metrics,
CMP: INR1,424
beating our estimates on most fronts. Though loan growth was in line, asset quality improved.
Rating: BUY
• Gross loan portfolio grew a stunning 27% YoY and 14% QoQ to INR26,714cr (in line).
Disbursements grew a stupendous 51% QoQ to INR8,053cr aided by robust net additions of Target price: INR1,800
6.54lk customers (up 15% YoY and ~5% QoQ to 49.18lk). The expansion beyond its core Upside: 26%
market helped the franchise, as 34% of annual client additions was from outside the top Date: May 08, 2024
districts. The management reiterated its GLP growth outlook of 20–25%.
• With prudent control on the cost of borrowing in Q4FY24 (marginal CoB at 9.3% versus 9.7%
in Q3) and portfolio yield of 21%, NII grew 28% YoY and 10% QoQ to INR881cr (a 5% beat). Bloomberg: CREDAG:IN
Aided by direct assignment income of INR41cr, other income came in higher and helped beat
52-week range (INR): 982/1,794
our net revenue estimate comfortably. Net revenue grew 36% YoY and 14% QoQ to INR977cr.
• C/I ratio came in line at 30%, even though it included a one-time impact of INR26cr towards M-cap (INR cr): 22,692
long-term incentives and a special bonus to employees. PPOP grew 36% YoY and 13% QoQ to
INR683cr, beating our estimate by a good margin. Promoter holding (%) 66.58
• Credit cost came in higher than anticipated at 2.6% (est. 2%) on increased provisioning for
standard assets due to its growing presence in new markets. PAT grew 34% YoY and 12% QoQ
to INR397cr (beating our estimate by 3%). 250
• GNPA/NNPA stood steady at 1.2%/0.4% (deteriorated by 21bp/6bp QoQ respectively), with
200
a healthy PCR of 70.3%. It holds ~100bp higher provisioning than IRAC norms, aided by a
Indexed
150
healthy CRAR at 23.1%. PAR0+ accretion of 1.7% in FY24 (from 1.5% YoY) is due to higher
100
steady state PAR outside Karnataka.
• The management maintained its credit growth guidance with stable return ratios aided by a 50
steady NIM and the C/I ratio. We expect its premium multiple vis-à-vis peers to sustain given 0
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its best-in-class asset quality, highest return ratios within the MFI space, and healthy growth
metrics. However, increasing share in non core market with increased credit cost guidance;
we have revised our target price to INR 1800 with ‘BUY’ recommendation. Sensex Creditaccess
Nuvama Group has two independent equity research groups: Institutional Equities and Professional Clients Group. This report h as been prepared by the Professional Clients Group. 1
Q4FY24 Result Update
CreditAccess Grameen
Nuvama Group has two independent equity research groups: Institutional Equities and Professional Clients Group. This report h as been prepared by the Professional Clients Group. 2
Q4FY24 Result Update
CreditAccess Grameen
Exhibit 1: Robust growth in disbursement Exhibit 2: Sequential uptick in the repayment rate
5,000 23%
8,053
4,500
7,171 4,000 22%
3,500 21%
5,344 3,000
4,847 4,771 4,966 2,500 20%
4,375
(INR cr)
2,000
1,500 19%
1,000 18%
2,146 500
0 17%
Q1FY23
Q2FY23
Q3FY23
Q4FY23
Q1FY24
Q2FY24
Q3FY24
Q4FY24
Q3FY24
Q1FY23
Q2FY23
Q3FY23
Q4FY23
Q1FY24
Q2FY24
Q4FY24
Exhibit 3: AUM grew at a very healthy pace Exhibit 4: Diversifying its geographic presence
21% 21%
Q2FY23
Q3FY23
Q4FY23
Q1FY24
Q2FY24
Q3FY24
Q4FY24
Exhibit 5: Asset quality slightly weakened Exhibit 6: Steady return ratio guidance
3.1% 6.0% 24.9% 30.0%
23.5%
5.0% 25.0%
2.2%
18.2%
1.7% 4.0% 20.0%
Q2FY23
Q3FY23
Q1FY24
Q2FY24
Q3FY24
Q4FY24
0.0% 0.0%
FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25E
Nuvama Group has two independent equity research groups: Institutional Equities and Professional Clients Group. This report h as been prepared by the Professional Clients Group. 3
Q4FY24 Result Update
CreditAccess Grameen
Previous outlook
Q3FY24 CREDAG’s stellar performance continues. It maintained its credit growth guidance and raised the return ratios band. Its
entry into new geographies and product launches that are higher yielding than existing products will provide superior growth and
return ratios than its peers. We feel CREDAG should command a premium to its peers given its strong growth trajectory, best-in-
class asset quality, and one of the highest return ratios over its peers. We maintain ‘BUY’ with a revised TP of INR1,910, a 14%
upside from its CMP.
Q2FY24: CAG’s stellar performance continues. It maintained its credit growth guidance and raised the return ratios band. Its entry
into new geographies and product launches that are higher yielding than existing products will provide superior growth and return
ratios than its peers. We believe CAG should at premium to its peer because of strong growth trajectory, best-in-class asset quality
and one of the highest return ratios over its peers. We maintain ‘BUY’ with a revised target price of INR 1,610 (3.2x FY25E ABV),
offering 16% upside from its CMP.
Q3FY24 Q2FY24
Nuvama Group has two independent equity research groups: Institutional Equities and Professional Clients Group. This report h as been prepared by the Professional Clients Group. 4
Q4FY24 Result Update
CreditAccess Grameen
Company profile
Established as an NGO in 1999, CREDAG is the largest NBFC-MFI in India with a consolidated AUM of INR26,714cr as of Q4FY24. It
is best placed to capture the growth opportunity in the microfinance space given its customer-centric business model, rural focus,
strong promoter backing, diversification into other states, and robust risk management practices. It now operates in 383 districts
in 16 states and one Union Territory through 1,967 branches. Over the medium term, we expect it to deliver a FY25 RoA/RoE of
nearly 5.5%/23.5% and comfortably achieve ~25% CAGR in GLP over FY25–28. CRISIL has upgraded its rating to AA-/Stable on
November 30, 2023 — the highest in the MFI industry — from A+/Positive.
Key risks
• State-based MFI regulations (in Maharashtra, Karnataka, and Tamil Nadu) and any potential loan waivers may impact the
repayment behaviour of borrowers.
• Any cap on interest rates and yields by the regulator.
Nuvama Group has two independent equity research groups: Institutional Equities and Professional Clients Group. This report h as been prepared by the Professional Clients Group. 5
Q4FY24 Result Update
CreditAccess Grameen
Financials
Income Statement (INR cr)
Year to March FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E
Interest Income 2,637 3,449 4,992 6,245 7,675
Interest expense 984 1,213 1,732 2,199 2,679
Net interest income 1,653 2,237 3,260 4,046 4,996
Non-interest income 113 101 181 183 224
Net revenues 1,766 2,338 3,440 4,229 5,220
Operating expense 689 831 1,049 1,289 1,623
- Employee exp 438 515 669 855 1,094
- Other opex 251 316 380 434 529
Preprovision profit 1,077 1,506 2,391 2,941 3,597
Provisions 597 401 452 654 804
PBT 481 1,105 1,939 2,287 2,793
Taxes 124 279 493 581 710
PAT 357 826 1,446 1,706 2,084
Basic number of shares (crs) 16 16 16 16 16
Basic EPS (INR) 23 52 91 107 131
Growth ratios
Year to March FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E
NII growth 11% 35% 46% 24% 23%
Net revenues growth 15% 32% 47% 23% 23%
Opex growth 18% 21% 26% 23% 26%
PPP growth 13% 40% 59% 23% 22%
Provisions growth -23% -33% 13% 45% 23%
PAT growth 172% 131% 75% 18% 22%
Nuvama Group has two independent equity research groups: Institutional Equities and Professional Clients Group. This report h as been prepared by the Professional Clients Group. 6
Q4FY24 Result Update
CreditAccess Grameen
Ratios
Year to March FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E
Yield on assets 17.5% 18.3% 20.9% 21.0% 21.0%
Cost of funds 8.3% 8.3% 9.1% 9.2% 9.2%
Spread 9.2% 10.0% 11.8% 11.8% 11.8%
Net interest margins 9.2% 10.2% 12.1% 12.0% 12.1%
Cost-to-income 39.0% 35.6% 30.5% 30.5% 31.1%
Tax Rate 25.7% 25.3% 25.4% 25.4% 25.4%
RoAE decomposition
Year to March FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E
Net Interest Income / Assets 9.6% 10.8% 12.4% 12.3% 12.4%
Other Income / Assets 0.7% 0.5% 0.7% 0.6% 0.6%
Net Revenues / Assets 10.3% 11.3% 13.1% 12.9% 12.9%
Operating Expense / Assets 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 3.9% 4.0%
Provisions / Assets 3.5% 1.9% 1.7% 2.0% 2.0%
Taxes / Assets 0.7% 1.4% 1.9% 1.8% 1.8%
Total Costs / Assets 8.2% 7.3% 7.6% 7.7% 7.8%
Return on Assets 2.1% 4.0% 5.5% 5.2% 5.2%
Assets / Equity (x) 4.49 4.54 4.49 4.42 4.34
Return on Average Equity 9.3% 18.2% 24.8% 23.0% 22.4%
Valuation metrics
Year to March FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E
EPS (INR) 22.9 52.0 90.7 107.0 130.7
EPS growth (%) 165.8% 127.0% 74.5% 18.0% 22.2%
BV per share 255 321 412 519 650
ABV per share 245 317 408 513 642
Price / Adj. Book Value(x) 5.8 4.5 3.5 2.8 2.2
Price/ Earning (x) 62.2 27.4 15.7 13.3 10.9
Nuvama Group has two independent equity research groups: Institutional Equities and Professional Clients Group. This report h as been prepared by the Professional Clients Group. 7
Q4FY24 Result Update
CreditAccess Grameen
Nuvama Wealth and Investment Limited, Eight Floor 801 to 804, Inspire BKC G Block, BKC Main Road, Bandra Kurla Complex,
Bandra East, Mumbai-400051
Nuvama Group has two independent equity research groups: Institutional Equities and Professional Clients Group. This report h as been prepared by the Professional Clients Group. 8
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