Possible futures of crowd logistics for

manufacturers: results of a strategic

foresight study
Sophie Michel, Jean-Philippe Bootz and Jeanne Bessouat
HuManiS UR Research Center, EM Strasbourg Business School, University of Strasbourg, Strasbourg, France

Abstract
Purpose – Although crowd logistics (CL) is a promising digital solution, its future development remains uncertain. This paper aims to suggest
multiple possible futures of CL in terms of business relationships and value co-creation between manufacturers and digital platforms.
Design/methodology/approach – This paper offers a systemic and multistakeholder approach related to the field of strategic foresight, based on
the scenario method. The scenarios construction involved 22 participants (practitioners, academic researchers and foresight experts).
Findings – Four scenarios emerged from the strategic foresight study. For each scenario, the configuration, diffusion and coordination of CL – as
well as the balance of power between manufacturers, digital platforms and customers – are specified.
Research limitations/implications – The foresight analysis reveals not one certain future, but multiple potential business configurations and
research avenues related to the development of CL.
Practical implications – The adopted multistakeholders perspective, including macro factors, regarding CL allows business-to-business (B2B) managers to
rethink its potential. Managers can use the scenarios to consider multiple types of coordination with digital platforms and its implication for value co-creation.
Social implications – This paper provides insights into social changes that may constitute drivers and consequences of the development of CL and
identifies two forms of coupling that may drive the development of CL: regulation–social transformation and technology–environment.
Originality/value – This research contributes to IMP research on B2B relationships in digital contexts, by showing that CL presents an opportunity
for the co-creation of distribution value in a B2B environment.
Keywords Crowd logistics, Strategic foresight, Manufacturing industries, Digitalization
Paper type Research paper

1. Introduction Thus, CL, as an emerging and innovative solution (Li et al.,

Crowd logistics (CL), a delivery service provided by private
individuals (carriers) and coordinated by a digital platform, could
become a prominent solution for all stakeholders in a digitalized
society (Frehe et al., 2017). It improves service delivery for users
and provides employment for people (Arslan et al., 2019).
For manufacturing companies, CL represents new service
opportunities related to digital platforms, providing a solution to
the problems associated with urbanization (Maisto, 2013). It
creates value by reducing transportation costs, increasing
customized service options for customers and improving
operational efficiency (Li et al., 2019). For the society as a whole,
CL can have a positive ecological impact by facilitating pooled
logistics resources, thereby rationalizing their use and reducing
their harmful effects on the environment. However, CL brings
many challenges (Punel and Stathopoulos, 2017), such as reliance
on a critical mass of carriers, problems regarding economic
viability (Frehe et al., 2017), the risk of job insecurity (Fleming,
2017) and consumer data protection issues (Devari et al., 2017).
The current issue and full text archive of this journal is available on Emerald
Insight at: https://www.emerald.com/insight/0885-8624.htm
2019), has an uncertain future. Frehe and Colleagues (2017)
called for research on the factors that can drive the
development of CL and highlighted the importance of macro
factors related to ongoing social changes, such as digitalization,
growing environmental concern and the challenges associated
with these. Therefore, the future of CL must be considered
from a broader perspective, taking into account macro factors
but also its potential value for business actors. The involvement
of manufacturing companies, and the use of CL in business
relationships must also be considered. While previous research
has mainly explored the development of CL in the context of
consumer-to-consumer distribution and the role of digital
platforms (Arslan et al., 2019), CL services are also adaptable
to business-to-business (B2B) distribution models (Buldeo Rai
et al., 2018).
Indeed, CL represents not only a new opportunity but also a
challenge for B2B firms that rely on services provided by partners
The authors thank all the participants of the “observatory of futures” study
at EM Strasbourg. They also thank the HuManiS members as well as the
members of the ST-AIMS “Temporalities and practices of anticipation” at
the AIMS 2021 conference for their feedback on the first version of the
manuscript. Finally, we are very grateful to the Editor Dr. Wesley Johnston
and the two reviewers for their support throughout the revision process.

Journal of Business & Industrial Marketing

Received 7 December 2021
38/10 (2023) 2019–2029 Revised 20 July 2022
© Emerald Publishing Limited [ISSN 0885-8624] 28 September 2022
[DOI 10.1108/JBIM-12-2021-0548] Accepted 4 November 2022

2019
 Possible futures of crowd logistics
Sophie Michel, Jean-Philippe Bootz and Jeanne Bessouat
(Blair et al., 2019) to cooperate and coordinate with digital
platforms and improve service delivery. The service delivery is
becoming more important and complex for manufacturing
companies (Blair et al., 2019), and the latter can take advantage
of CL services to adapt to the digitalization trend and adopt
customer-focused logic (Favoretto et al., 2022).
Our paper aims to explore possible futures of CL in relation
to the digitalization of society and how it might affect business
relationships. We adopt a systemic perspective that takes macro
factors (economic, technological, environmental and social)
into account. Our methodological approach falls within the
strategic foresight paradigm, a systemic approach to explore
possible futures through the construction of scenarios and
consideration of uncertainties (Goodwin and Wright, 2010)
and disruption (Rohrbeck and Gemünden, 2011). Scenario
building was carried out using a structured approach and
collective mobilization combined with a major documents
collection and consultation with external experts.
The results present the possible futures of CL based on
four scenarios: cyberconsumption, technology crash,
positive technology and digital green. By adopting a
systemic approach, our study offers a global vision of the
potential development of CL, both as a driver of and as an
entity conditioned by societal changes. We show that the
role of CL differs in each scenario in relation to other
macro factors, such as the coupling between the
environment and technology or between regulation and
social change. The results also highlight the changing
relationships and balances of power between digital
platforms and manufacturing companies. This provides
managerial implications for the latter by describing the
configurations from which a partnership with CL platforms
is possible to co-create value and achieve a customer-focus
logic.
2. Literature review
2.1 Crowd logistics: a new digital solution with multiple
societal aspects
Digital solutions revolutionize industries, business relations
and enterprises’ supply chain (Hadjikhani and Lindh, 2021;
Kauffman and Pointer, 2022). CL is a new digital solution that
refers to the involvement, in logistical activities, of individuals
(the crowd) who offer and/or request a service through a digital
platform (Frehe et al., 2017). CL relies both on individuals’
unexploited logistical resources (like a student may have a
bicycle to travel to the university in Pache, 2020) and the social
trend of digitalization (Mehmann et al., 2015).
The growth of online digital platforms and smartphone
applications helps link various stakeholders (consumers,
commissioners, carriers) in CL (Buldeo Rai et al., 2017). Digital
platforms are facilitators (Ramaswamy & Ozcan, 2020) that
recruit carriers, centralize offers and requests and define pricing
using algorithms and communication technologies (Punel and
Stathopoulos, 2017). Thus, CL platforms create value by
matching resources and demand while improving the adjustment
capabilities and regulatory compliance of the deliverers (Li et al.,
2019).
The expected benefits of CL can be considered along
three dimensions: economic, environmental and social
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(Carbone et al., 2017). From an economic perspective, CL
enables faster and cheaper deliveries according to individuals’
availability (Rougès and Montreuil, 2014). From an environmental
perspective, CL makes it possible to take advantage of existing
routes to collect and deliver products, thereby reducing road traffic
and pollution (Devari et al., 2017). From a social point of view,
individuals can work for a CL platform for economic benefit
(Carbone et al., 2017) while retaining the freedom to choose when
he or she is available (Arslan et al., 2019).
However, CL is still emerging (Frehe et al., 2017), and its
income opportunities and market share remain limited and are
not subject to precise measurement (Carbone et al., 2017). Its
potential must be considered in relation to three main societal
issues. The first of these relates to the use of technology. Since
CL relies on connected mobile platforms, it is more likely to
attract younger segments of the population (Punel and
Stathopoulos, 2017), at the expense of other groups that may
not have mastered new technologies. Moreover, it raises serious
concerns regarding private data management, as individuals
may be reluctant to share their personal data (Devari et al.,
2017). Thus, mastery of technology and trust are key factors for
the development of CL (Rougès and Montreuil, 2014). A
second societal issue that must be considered is the working
conditions of individuals. Working in CL usually implies the
absence of an employment contract between the platform and
deliverers, which diminishes working conditions and work–life
balance and deprives deliverers of fair remuneration (De Groen
and Maselli, 2016). Labor costs are incurred by the worker
rather than the firm (Fleming, 2017). However, regulation
pertaining to individuals working for CL platforms is
underdeveloped (Wang et al., 2016). The third societal issue to
consider is the environmental impact of CL. Deliveries are
sometimes made via routes exclusive to an order, which
increases its environmental impact (Qi et al., 2018). The
environmental sustainability of CL remains questionable, as it
depends on the mode of transport, the time of delivery, the trip
distance and the order in which packages are collected (Frehe
et al., 2017).
Thus, the viability of this new solution relies on macro factors
and a holistic vision (Frehe et al., 2017) that takes all stakeholders
into account.
2.2 Crowd logistics: a solution for business relationships
While CL has important implications for all stakeholders, the
literature generally focuses on the consumer side (Arslan et al.,
2019; Wang et al., 2016) regarding carriers and consumers’ role
in the success of CL (Carbone et al., 2017) or the identification
of consumers’ criteria (Devari et al., 2017), to name a few.
Yet, CL also facilitates interactions between business partners
(Ramaswamy & Ozcan, 2020) and is a valuable solution for
upstream companies in the supply chain, such as manufacturers
(Buldeo Rai et al., 2018). Indeed, CL is not only an opportunity
for enterprises to outsource logistics activities to individuals, but
also to change the way business is conducted through digitalization
(Hadjikhani & Lindh, 2021; Kauffman and Pointer, 2022). For
manufacturers, digitalization represents a key opportunity to
rethink customer relationship management (Favoretto et al.,
2022). Digital platforms facilitate the sharing of information and
coordination between industrial actors and customers (Castillo
et al., 2018). CL is one of these new solutions for manufacturing
 Possible futures of crowd logistics
Sophie Michel, Jean-Philippe Bootz and Jeanne Bessouat
industry marketers, based on the digitalization of society (Frehe
et al., 2017; Kunze, 2016), that aims to improve the delivery
services of their products. Indeed, the delivery of services is
becoming more important and complex for industrial companies
(Blair et al., 2019), and CL can be a new opportunity but also a
new challenge for B2B firms to cooperate and coordinate with
digital platforms. As such, manufacturers can partner with CL
platform companies (Frehe et al., 2017), not only to reach their
customers at a lower cost (Li et al., 2019; Rougès and Montreuil,
2014) but also to capitalize on the digitalization trend and adopt
customer-focused logic (Favoretto et al., 2022).
To sum up, the overwhelming focus on the value of CL for
customers has led to a marginal exploration of its potential for
B2B markets and, consequently, of its value for manufacturers.
However, previous studies have demonstrated not only the
potential but also the challenges that this solution may bring
with respect to its societal impact. Therefore, we propose a
structured foresight approach that explores the possible futures
for CL in relation to business relationships, taking into account
economic, social and environmental dimensions.
3. Methodology
3.1 A systemic approach based on the French school of
foresight
Our foresight approach enables us to explore the possible futures
of CL using a systemic perspective that considers technological
aspects related to the supply chain, as well as regulatory,
economic, environmental, political and social dimensions.
Indeed, a foresight perspective is holistic and multidisciplinary
(Djuricic and Bootz, 2019; Rohrbeck et al., 2015) and is useful
for taking into account technological innovations and their
societal impacts (Kaivo-oja, 2017). While foresight methods have
been recognized as useful for exploring the manufacturing
industry (Culot et al., 2020; Srai et al., 2016) [1], they have thus
far not been used to address business relationships in relation to
CL solutions.
Our methodological approach falls within the field of strategic
foresight (Rohrbeck et al., 2015), which lies at the junction
between future methods and strategic management (Slaughter,
1997). Unlike normative and deterministic approaches to
forecasting, strategic foresight considers not one but multiple
possible and uncertain futures that can be imagined using
scenarios (Coates et al., 2010). Strategic foresight helps to
improve decision-making processes (Lew et al., 2019), especially
with collective approaches including multiple stakeholders
(Andersen et al., 2018). More specifically, we follow recent
evolutions of the French school of foresight. Structured for a long
time around the scenario method proposed by Godet (2007),
this school has recently relied less on formal tools and adopted
more flexible methods that combine expert interviews,
documentary analysis and collective mobilization (Bootz et al.,
2019), in line with the vision of many foresight specialists
(Lüdeke, 2013). These new French schools of thought are based
on high levels of participation and have been employed over the
past 10 years in some 50 foresight studies in sectors as varied as
agriculture, banking, insurance, education, health and energy
(Bootz et al., 2019). Compared with Godet’s (2007) traditional
scenario method, it has drastically increased participation thus
coming closer to the current and growing trend of open
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foresight. More specifically, as a collaborative process involving
various relevant stakeholders across the companies’ boundaries
(Schmidthuber and Wiener, 2018), our methodological
approach falls under the collaborative open foresight approach
(Wiener, 2018).
3.2. A participatory approach in two phases
In line with the participatory logic of the French school, we
have mobilized a large and heterogeneous working group (WG)
with 22 members, composed of the following:
 The main actors of change: 12 practitioners from large
companies, small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and
start-ups. The majority of them work in manufacturing
companies from various sectors (e.g. household appliances,
energy production and distribution, automotive and the
design and manufacture of fastening solutions) as top
managers (innovation coordinator, research and development
projects and team manager, production manager, human
resource (HR) manager) or CEOs. Technological solution
suppliers for industry (internet technology [IT] services and
Internet of Things [IoT] expertise) were also part of the WG.
 A technical committee (TC) composed of eight
researchers from different fields (including foresight,
strategic management, HR management, organizational
theory) who carried out the work of monitoring, synthesis
and collective restitution of the knowledge produced.
 Two experts in foresight studies: The project leader role
was held by one of the authors, and the approach was
methodologically engineered by an associate director of
Gerpa [2]. These two experts conceived the approach,
designed the tools and led the workshops.
The scenario building approach involved two essential phases,
which took place from February to December 2019. The first
phase entailed the development of the foresight information
base, which provided a systemic vision based on interrelated
macro variables. The second phase consisted of projecting the
system into the future through hypotheses and scenarios. The
entire process involved four workshops that brought together
all the participants and important back-office work carried out
by the TC (Figure 1).
3.2.1 Phase 1: development of the foresight information base
The first phase entailed establishing the foresight information
base. The aim was to design an image of the system under study
from which the foresight study could be developed. This image
had to be global and had to explain the mechanisms of
evolution, highlighting past trends and future developments
(Godet, 2007). This first phase was carried out in two stages:
the development of the foresight system and the creation of 12
foresight files.
3.2.1.1 Construction of the foresight system. The foresight
system is a graphical representation of a system based on a
various set of macro variables that either influence the subject
under study or are influenced by it. A macro variable brings
together several variables and constitutes a structuring element
of the study. This work was based on a list of key factors of
change [3] identified by the WG during the first workshop,
supplemented by a monitoring work and a comparison with
other foresight systems on related subjects. The 12 macro
variables listed below were identified. As the list shows, the
 Possible futures of crowd logistics Journal of Business & Industrial Marketing
Sophie Michel, Jean-Philippe Bootz and Jeanne Bessouat Volume 38 · Number 10 · 2023 · 2019–2029

Figure 1 Overview of the participatory approach

2019

Phases Phase 1 – Development of the foresight informaon base Phase 2 – Foresight exploraon
Construcon of the foresight system Formang and wring Formang and wring
Steps
and of the 12 foresight files of the hypotheses of the scenarios

Pilots (2)
Actors (nb. of people)

Technical
Commiee
(8)

Acvies Monitoring + experts interviews Back office Back office

Working Workshop 1 Workshop 2 Workshop 3 Workshop 4

Group (22)
Idenficaon of the Idenficaon of hypotheses Idenficaon of hypotheses
Acvies Idenficaon of 4 scenarios
change drivers (macro variables 1 to 5) ( macro variables 6 to 12)

Technical commiee meeng Pilots validaon

“distribution channel,” which includes logistics options, is a  Critical uncertainties: central issues that may impact the
macro variable among others, allowing us to position the future of the system and that contrast sharply with the
potential of CL in relation to other factors: possible evolutions.
 data (artificial intelligence, Big Data, IoT);  Controversies: central issues that may impact the future of
 interaction (blockchain, robot); the system and on which opinions are sharply contrasting
 digitalization players (start-ups, internet giants, platforms); and irreconcilable.
 European regulation (standards, data management, taxation);  Weak signals: factors of change, barely perceived today
 digital transformation policy (state, region); but that may become future megatrends.
 jobs and training (changes in labor law, trades, training);  Breakthroughs: sudden and unlikely phenomenon that
 economic models (investment policies, economy of could cause a major change in the system’s evolution.
sharing, economy of functionality);
 economic and financial situation; Based on a review of over 200 sources, supplemented by
 consumer and citizen behavior interviews with experts [4], the TC compiled the 12 foresight
 distribution channel (supply chain, from B2B to B2C); files. These foresight files constitute a foresight information
 manufacturers (large groups, SMEs, subcontractors); and base from which scenarios are developed.
 modes of production (augmented reality, additive 3.2.2 Phase 2: foresight exploration (construction of the hypotheses
manufacturing, robotization). and scenarios)
3.2.1.2 Creation of 12 foresight files. Each foresight file consisted 3.2.2.1 Construction of the hypotheses. Using a morphological
of three sections, which enabled us to analyze the dynamics analysis, a series of hypotheses were co-constructed for each
(past, present and future) of each macro variable. The first macro variable with a systemic and transparent exploration of
section of each foresight file contained a definition of the macro the possibilities. These hypotheses formed the basis for the
variable, clarifying its main content and introducing key scenarios of the future. The co-construction of hypotheses
questions regarding digitalization and delimiting the macro occurred during two workshops, based on the foresight files.
variable relationship with others to understand its role in the These included the following:
 Trend hypotheses referring to past and current dynamics.
dynamics of the system. The second section addressed past
 Contrasted hypotheses regarding uncertainties, controversies
dynamics, including key elements in the history of the macro
and seeds of change.
variable (quantitative and qualitative) that significantly
 Breakthrough hypotheses referring to drastic and disruptive
influenced the evolution of the subject in recent years and
changes in the future.
present current dynamics, namely evolutions in the past
10 years that will partly shape future developments. Finally, the All the hypotheses were completed, reworked, written up and
foresight file explores possible evolutions by distinguishing the validated by the two experts. The raw data collected by the WG
following: were grouped into common subthemes for each macro variable
 Invariants: factors that are not expected to change over to ensure consistency across the different hypotheses.
time. 3.2.2.2 Scenario building. The WG collectively decided that
 Megatrends: movements affecting a phenomenon in such the hypothesis regarding the trend scenario for each macro
a way that its evolution can be predicted over time. variable, based on current dynamics, would run up to 2030.

2022
 Possible futures of crowd logistics
Sophie Michel, Jean-Philippe Bootz and Jeanne Bessouat
This is how the cyberconsumption scenario emerged. The WG
members then identified three other themes, referring to
possible scenarios derived from the hypotheses. These themes
were green digital, technological crash and positive technology.
The participants then combined the hypotheses corresponding
to each theme and developed one scenario explaining the
relationships between the hypotheses that constituted that
theme. Finally, the WG members were split into subgroups to
establish a general description of each scenario.
4. Results
We present four possible future scenarios for CL:
cyberconsumption, technology crash, positive technology and
digital green.
4.1 Crowd logistics in a cyberconsumption scenario
4.1.1 The scenario
In this scenario, following current premises, alternative
consumption models are marginalized and cyberconsumption
is established as the dominant model. Growth is low but
continuous and based on an economy of functionality where
subscriptions and rentals are the norm for consumers. The
development of AI has resulted in significant progress in
developing predictive models of consumer behavior, increasing
the relevance of targeting and purchase recommendations. To
access any product they need, hyperconnected consumers use
platforms created by the new Big Tech companies of the 2030s,
which have become increasingly efficient. Consumers can
afford all these services because they sell their data on platforms
in exchange for digital money, such as tokens. They have to
constantly train in new technologies due to the fear that one
day, they will find themselves unemployed, replaced by robots
and AI.
Manufacturers, too, are increasingly dependent on
technology and new platforms. Sales as a service have long
surpassed traditional sales: 80% of sales are made through
platforms, which have become indispensable because of their
marketing power and market share. Manufacturers are under
strong pressure to reconcile shorter delivery times with limited
logistics costs. The lack of appropriate supranational
regulations limits the power of manufacturers to compete with
new technological giants. Nevertheless, they manage to take
advantage of national policies on new technologies (e.g. robots,
AI) to reduce employee numbers. Even so, manufacturers are
constantly looking for highly qualified employees (e.g.
engineers and scientists) to perform high-quality maintenance
of machines. Thanks to very low rates, manufacturers can
invest in digital technology to set up automated and
standardized production and move toward 100% digital
distribution. The idea is to stay in business without being
absorbed by powerful digital platforms.
4.1.2 Future of crowd logistics in this context
CL is a niche solution in a business-to-consumer (B2C)
distribution scheme mainly controlled by new powerful
platforms. The latter have strengthened their control and their
distribution efficiency through ever shorter lead times and
automation of services. In a context where efficiency takes
precedence over ecology, the platforms are diversifying their
modes of transport and delivery solutions to meet deadlines (e.g.
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home deliveries, relay point, click and collect, consignments).
Because cyberconsumption implies worldwide distribution, CL
remains a niche solution for last-mile deliveries. The CL
platforms depend on people who have been laid off because of
the rapid rise of AI in manufacturing companies. Without fully
adapting to the new needs, an increasing number of former
employees are renting out their work on CL platforms, which
increases the size of the available crowd. However, the EU
regulatory system remains cumbersome – no common rule
recognizes employee status. Thus, these precarious workers
remain available by constraint. Although manufacturers are
globally dependent on digital platforms, some of them use CL to
maintain a form of independence. It is an effective distribution
solution for firms that are unwilling or unable to invest in
logistical resources. However, the phenomenon remains
marginal, and CL is mainly coordinated by the new digital
platforms as a niche solution limited to last-mile deliveries.
4.2 Crowd logistics in a technology crash scenario
4.2.1 The scenario
Technological disasters and a multitude of cyberattacks have
led to strong rebellion against platforms, Fintechs and
connected systems. Indeed, hacking of blockchains has
diminished people’s trust in all related applications (tokens,
crypto-currencies, smart contracts). Multiple hackings have
made both people and governments aware of the harmful
effects of digitalization. Thus, policies to support digital
transformation have been abandoned in favor of maintaining
jobs. The unprecedented level of hacking has also generated
political tensions at the international level, which have led to a
refocusing of industrial dynamics at the continental level.
Europe has also witnessed an upsurge in nationalism with the
exit of several countries from the EU and challenges to
European regulation. However, based on national regulations,
digital platforms face derisory sanctions compared to their
multinational corporation’s statute. Poverty rates have risen in
many industrialized countries due to a severe economic crisis.
Consumers are questioning economic systems based on virtual
currencies. Accustomed to going to physical shops again,
consumers are following the techno-skeptical path, protecting
themselves from the crisis by investing in local SMEs. Thus,
investments in local economies are increasing, and consumers
are determined to regain control of their economy.
Manufacturers are also impacted by cybersecurity issues.
The need to secure data has caused companies to use private
clouds, thus weakening digital platforms. Coupled with the
need for a physical presence to reassure consumers, this has led
to more local modes of production. As a consequence,
production methods are more locally oriented, direct sales are
increasing and companies are producing in a more circular and
mutualized manner in new infrastructures.
4.2.2 Future of crowd logistics in this context
This new context has led to a break with the dominant
distribution model and created an opportunity for CL to
become an essential solution. Indeed, manufacturers have
turned their backs on digital platforms and are directly involved
in their own logistics management. However, because these
companies are not logistics specialists, they must rely on two
main solutions: traditional logistics service providers and CL.
 Possible futures of crowd logistics
Sophie Michel, Jean-Philippe Bootz and Jeanne Bessouat
The latter is preferred by manufacturers and consumers
because it guarantees short distribution channels. With the
development of direct sales, CL enables manufacturers to
create a community based on trust with their consumers.
Consumers are particularly receptive to this direct connection to
manufacturers because they want to regain control over their
consumption after falling victim to the digital crisis. Consumers
prefer to coordinate with each other and with local businesses for
the delivery of products. This has led to a new CL model based on
the companies’ own platforms, with coordination shared between
consumers and local businesses. However, the development of CL
remains constrained by the limited digital skills and resources of
companies seeking to move away from platforms and develop their
own systems. This new model of CL is less efficient because of
limited financial support for manufacturers wishing to invest in
digital technology. It is also less effective for consumers, who
have to use individual companies’ platforms. Moreover, some
consumers severely affected by the previous crisis remain resistant
to any use of technology.
4.3 Crowd logistics in a positive technology scenario
4.3.1 The scenario
Disruptions in consumption, production, financing and
distribution models are accelerating with the massive diffusion of
new information and communication technologies (NICTs),
particularly blockchain and IoT. All NICTs benefit from effective
cooperation between various players, which promotes the
interoperability of systems and strengthens cybersecurity. These
far-reaching technological changes have been relatively well
mastered and accepted by all stakeholders, notably thanks to
public policies. In this context, the traditional distribution model is
undermined, and platforms are challenged by stricter regulations,
mature blockchain technology and the emergence of more agile
start-ups. Although they still require fast deliveries, consumers use
technologies to consume more responsibly. There is also a greater
acceptance of digital platforms due to more effective regulations
regarding data protection, digital taxation and environmental
issues. Stronger European regulations also allow for better
protection of freelancers, who can be paid in tokens or in their own
personal digital currency.
Manufacturers are doing relatively well by reorienting
themselves toward service provision. They are developing
rental and subscription models using NICTs. Their objective is
to achieve the widest possible adoption of their services by
relying on new start-up platforms, which have replaced the the
big five also called GAFAM. Manufacturers are also seeking to
optimize the production process using NICTs to better adapt
to customers’ needs. For example, IoT and fast data are
developing rapidly throughout the value chain, enabling
manufacturers to develop mass customization. Based on
technological changes, manufacturers improve their
production, consumption and employment models. This
approach has positive implications of individuals and reinforces
collective confidence in the system.
4.3.2 Future of crowd logistics in this context
The trust placed in NICTs and their positive implications for
individuals have strengthened CL. First, the increased security of
digital platforms and data sharing has facilitated the use of CL
based on NICTs. Moreover, since consumers can also be
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deliverers, they are more involved in the product’s distribution.
Thanks to better European protection, more self-employed
workers are offering their logistics services in exchange for tokens.
In other words, the crowd has greatly expanded through self-
employment, which optimizes the resources available for CL. In
addition to its increase in volume, the crowd has reached a level
of technological maturity that makes it easy for them to
appropriate NICTs. Manufacturers have also achieved sufficient
technological maturity and are now better protected by
regulations to cooperate with new digital start-ups. This scenario
suggests coordination between new digital start-ups,
manufacturers and individuals offering CL services.
Although CL has developed in this scenario, it is also limited
by consumers’ prioritizing immediate access to a maximum
number of services. Consumers have become responsible, but
efficiency in distribution takes precedence over ecological
concerns. This phenomenon could lead companies to multiply
logistics solutions, resulting from new technologies (e.g.
drones). While CL remains an efficient solution for last-mile
deliveries, other logistics solutions are preferred for the
transportation of products over longer distances.
4.4 Crowd logistics in a green digital scenario
4.4.1 The scenario
Citizens are looking for a balance between social responsibility,
environmental sustainability and digital development; they rely
on digital tools with a virtuous intent of use. The economy is
more circular, with manufacturers focusing on sustainability
and seeking to limit resource waste. By simplifying its operating
rules, the EU has become more efficient at regulating large
platforms while funding smaller ones. The EU is also
implementing forward-looking environmental and digital policies.
Technologies are developing rapidly, thanks in particular to the
emergence of low-energy infrastructures. This innovation dynamic
is based on a mix of industrial players operating in synergy to create
value: even though large enterprises are still present, platforms
focus on mass data processing and manufacturers operate
according to a more local logic and the dynamics of the sharing
economy. Thus, a reindustrialization movement is organized
around small series production. A more cooperative level of direct
sharing (donations, counter-gifts and barter) is also becoming
established, particularly in rural areas. The modes of production
and distribution are locally oriented toward solidarity.
Consumers are not looking for the best price anymore but for
better local quality, favoring local distribution networks and group
buying. They also favor rental systems and local products.
Technology is being put to service for local, circular and ecological
consumption. Manufacturers are taking a rational approach for
minimizing overproduction and improving inventory management
by relying on Big Data to produce on demand in relocated units.
As a result, manufacturers have restructured to integrate the
dimensions of digital performance, ecological responsibility and
local dynamics.
4.4.2 Future of crowd logistics in this context
From an ecological perspective, CL is a major technological
solution for achieving local and circular distribution of
products. By optimizing existing and environmentally friendly
transport, CL meets the environmental requirements of this
scenario. In addition, the relocation of production to the
 Possible futures of crowd logistics
Sophie Michel, Jean-Philippe Bootz and Jeanne Bessouat
consumption area reduces distances and favors the deployment
of CL beyond the last mile. Although total localization of the
supply chain is difficult for some sectors (e.g. aeronautics), CL
is developing with the reindustrialization movement around
local and small-scale production. CL deployment is then
consistent with the small volume logic of the reindustrialization
movement, linking manufacturers directly to consumers.
Consumers are demanding this responsible distribution
solution because of their ecological awareness. Many consumers
provide their own means of transport and storage to help move
products. Moreover, their involvement makes possible the
coordination of CL directly between individuals who exchange
products without necessarily going through companies. In
addition, CL makes it possible to manage the exchange of
products between private individuals on a large scale using
existing platforms. Indeed, consumers are conscious of the
impact of their actions on the environment and society. The CL
platforms have always been based on a community principle,
whereby members participate and make their personal logistics
resources available. In this scenario, the potential of CL is
realized.
5. Discussion
The aim of this paper is to explore the possible future of CL in
relation to business relationships and macro factors. Using a
foresight approach, our results suggest different degrees of CL
development depending on the future direction of industry in
the face of digitalization, with several managerial and societal
implications. First, our study strengthens the link between the
future of manufacturing and digitalization and shows the
benefits of CL platforms for manufacturers. The results reveal
multiple forms of possible CL coordination and configuration
of business relationships between manufacturers and other
supply chain actors. Second, the systemic approach puts into
perspective the future of CL in terms of its potential
technological and societal impacts beyond the urban logistics
context (Kunze, 2016). The scenarios illustrate the complex
link between CL and social and environmental transformations
in relation to other dimensions, such as regulatory and
technological developments.
5.1 Future of crowd logistics for manufacturers:
multiple coordination modes and configurations
While the literature review on CL focuses mainly on the role of
consumers (Carbone et al., 2017), manufacturers have
sufficient mastery of technology to coordinate digital platforms
and become CL players. The green digital scenario for
instance, includes the development of CL within the circular
economy, facilitating direct exchanges between individuals and
manufacturers through their investment in technology.
More broadly, a comparison of the scenarios reveals
several configurations of business relationship and modes of
coordination between manufacturing industry marketers and
the other CL actors, as summarized in Table 1.
The cyberconsumption scenario indicates a marginal
configuration that accentuates the current search for efficiency
(in terms of both cost and time) in distribution through the
multiplication of logistics solutions. In this scenario, the degree
of diffusion of CL remains low, being limited to last-mile
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Volume 38 · Number 10 · 2023 · 2019–2029
deliveries. Coordination is unilateral at the level of the new
major digital players, where there is a strong dependence on
manufacturers and private individuals, both consumers and
workers. The dominant players mobilize digital platforms to
sell most of the manufacturers’ goods, but the manufacturers’
own coordination of CL remains marginal. Individuals are in a
precarious situation with rising unemployment and are
dependent on these digital platforms. The latter will capitalize
on this growing and low-cost labor force to solve the last-mile
problem. This scenario presents a simple configuration and
coordination of CL that is dominated by the new major digital
platforms.
The technological crash scenario presents a new form of CL
coordination between companies and consumers. This is a new
dyad whereby intermediaries (dominant digital players or
traditional logistics service companies) are eliminated and
independent digital platforms are established by manufacturers.
Thus, this scenario highlights the potential role manufacturers
could play in coordinating CL in a disruptive configuration. In
this configuration, CL becomes a new means for industrial
companies to create a community with consumers while
regaining their trust. In contrast to the cyberconsumption
scenario, consumers play an active part in CL coordination by
seeking to regain control of their consumption, including the
delivery of products. In this case, coordination is shared in a
disruptive configuration, but the degree of diffusion of CL is
moderated by the lack of expertise of intermediaries and limited
trust in technology.
The positive technology scenario presents greater potential
for CL with a triad of coordination shared between
manufacturers, new digital start-ups and individuals offering
CL services. Effective regulation to boost the industry, protect
the self-employed and improve the mastery of technology by all
players helps to rebalance the power between the three players.
This coordination is part of a renewed configuration of the
traditional distribution model, where digital giants are replaced
by more agile start-ups. In this scenario, CL takes off again
thanks to the widespread adoption of technology by both
manufacturers and individuals. However, the diffusion of CL
remains moderate and limited to last-mile deliveries because
other technologies are preferred in the context of globalized and
multimodal distribution (e.g. autonomous vehicles).
The green digital scenario presents an exclusive configuration
with CL performing strongly as a major solution for achieving
local and environmentally friendly distribution. Production to
order, production relocation and the widespread adoption of
NICTs facilitate more autonomous coordination of CL between
individuals, as well as between individuals and companies. While
intermediaries remain present at the local level to facilitate this
coordination between consumers and manufacturers, local
digital platforms are at the service of these two types of players,
who take control of local distribution. This configuration involves
multiple forms of local coordination between consumers,
manufacturers and new platforms. In these two last scenarios, the
development of CL is driven by collaboration among multiple
stakeholders (Frehe et al., 2017).
5.2 Managerial implications
The results clarify the degree of involvement of each key
stakeholder in the development of CL (Frehe et al., 2017) and
 Possible futures of crowd logistics Journal of Business & Industrial Marketing
Sophie Michel, Jean-Philippe Bootz and Jeanne Bessouat Volume 38 · Number 10 · 2023 · 2019–2029

Table 1 Configuration and coordination of CL

Background
Cyberconsumption
(consumption intensified by
technology)
Technological crash (loss of
confidence in technology and
major digital players)
Positive technology
(technology, accountability
globalization, service
efficiency)
Digital green (technology,
ecology, and relocation)
CL configuration
Marginal: from the current logistics
model based on cost–time
efficiency
Disruptive: of the traditional
logistics model with the rejection
of traditional and dominant
logistics players
Renewed: with the substitution of
GAFAM by new digital start-ups
Exclusive: challenging a globalized
distribution system and renewing
the players at the local level
CL diffusion
Low: CL remains a solution for last
mile
Moderate: industry-independent
digital platforms but limited
technological expertise
Moderate: CL remains a solution
for last-mile deliveries but is being
pushed by the widespread
adoption of technology
Strong: CL is changing scale and
becoming a major and dual
solution (SE)
CL coordination
Unilateral: control by the major digital players.
Strong dependence of manufacturers on
digital platforms
Dyad between consumers and manufacturers
with independent digital platforms
coordinated by manufacturers
Triad between new start-ups, manufacturers
and private individuals involved in CL because
consumers have adopted the technology on a
massive scale
Multiple and local: several forms of
coordination: between consumers and local
platforms and between manufacturers,
consumers with or without local platforms

the various forms of business relationship between manufacturers
and digital platforms. Managers can use the several configurations
of business relationship and modes of coordination identified in
Table 1 to better understand how to interact with CL platforms in
a B2B context.
In the face of industrial and B2B digitalization (Corsaro,
2018; Culot et al., 2020; Favoretto et al., 2022), CL presents an
opportunity for manufacturers in terms of co-creation of
logistics value (Carbone et al., 2017) and improves the
upstream creation of service delivery (Blair et al., 2019).
Indeed, the value co-creation depends on the understanding of
the complex interaction between firms in a B2B context
(Berenguer-Contrí et al., 2020). Defined as active participation
and collaboration among involved partners (Franklin and
Marshall, 2019), value co-creation improves parts of a supply
chain in a B2B context (Saha et al., 2022). While the value co-
creation remains a key challenge for manufacturers (Favoretto
et al., 2022), the foresight analysis emphasizes the need for
manufacturers to be proactive, move beyond passive compliance
to become powerful digital players (as in the cyberconsumption
scenario) and build co-creation relationships with relevant
stakeholders (as in the positive technology scenario). Our study
reveals that CL represents an opportunity for manufacturers
to create or emphasize networking and partnerships with
new kinds of digital players. This multi-parties perspective
regarding CL answer to a need for a broader view of value
co-creation, including perspectives of several involved actors
(Sinkovics et al., 2018) and taking into account macro factors
(Frehe et al., 2017).
5.3 Social implications and the future of crowd logistics
In the continuity of Frehe et al. (2017), our study examines the
development of CL in relation to legal, social and environmental
transformations. Our results highlight that CL is not only the
bearer of these transformations in regulation and technology but
is also conditioned by them. First, our results confirm the positive
link between CL and the desire to create local communities,
particularly in the green digital scenario. Indeed, CL appears to
be a facilitator of the transition to new forms of local community
(Carbone et al., 2017). Second, the results show the importance
of regulation regarding crowd employment conditions for the
future of CL. Previous studies have highlighted the problem of
crowd precariousness in terms of the transfer of responsibility and
risk from firms to individuals (Fleming, 2017). This issue is
reflected in all four proposed scenarios, where regulation is
crucial for ensuring job security for those involved in CL. With
the introduction of regulation to secure the future of these
workers (as in the positive technology and green digital
scenarios), the crowd of carriers will increase, facilitating the
development of CL. Individuals will become involved in the CL
by choice and opportunity, not by constraint. Employment law is
a key factor in CL development that is rarely discussed (Wang
et al., 2016). This underlines that CL is not itself a cause of job
insecurity but that its development depends on better security for
self-employed workers under the evolution of labor law. All
scenarios except the green digital one show that new regulations to
secure the status of carriers will lead to their professionalization.
The regulatory approach also makes it possible to understand the
potential of CL with respect to problems of data use (Devari et al.,
2017). Regulation plays a key role in building confidence in
technology by enhancing data protection and, more broadly, the
use of technology (as in the positive technology scenario), which is
an essential condition for the development of CL (Rougès and
Montreuil, 2014). Therefore, regulations regarding worker
protection and the use of technology must be considered when
implementing a CL solution (Frehe et al., 2017).
Our study also emphasizes the positive coupling of
environmental and technological changes in CL development.
While previous studies questioned the potential of CL with
respect to its environmental impact (Frehe et al., 2017; Qi et al.,
2018), our results suggest that the development of CL depends
precisely on society’s ability to put the environment at the
center of its concerns. For instance, in the cyberconsumption
scenario, the use of CL is limited if the environmental
dimension is not considered by the actors involved. In the green
digital scenario, where environmental issues have been effectively
integrated by all stakeholders, CL represents a major solution.
Moreover, the green digital scenario also highlights the positive

2026
 Possible futures of crowd logistics
Sophie Michel, Jean-Philippe Bootz and Jeanne Bessouat
coupling between technology and the environment. In a context
where technological advances are important while the environment
remains of secondary importance (as in the positive technology
scenario), the growth of CL remains moderate because of other less
green technological solutions (e.g. drones, e-scooters, autonomous
vehicles, robots). Indeed, a society driven by environmental
considerations without a strong technological presence does not
allow CL to take off because it relies on the mass adoption of
technology by all players. Our results suggest that the coupling of
the environment and technology will have a positive effect on the
development of CL.
6. Conclusion
The current study explores the possible futures of CL as a
promising digital solution based on a systemic foresight
approach, which considers major societal dimensions. This
approach resulted in the emergence of four scenarios in which
the potential of CL varies in accordance with these dimensions.
The foresight approach yields multiple configurations and
modes of coordination of CL in relation to the evolution of key
variables. We encourage future research that mobilizes the four
forms of configuration and coordination identified here
(Table 1) to explore in greater depth the development of CL
through business relationships. For those multiple business
relationships, the logistics activities, actors and products
involved could be specified to distinguish different types
of CL (Carbone et al., 2017). We also encourage further
research on the link between CL and societal
transformations, which could test how CL develops in
relation to the two identified couplings: regulation–social
transformations and technology–environment. Future
research could extend the actual focus on the European
context to consider these couplings in other regions.
A limitation of this study could be that major crises that
have occurred since then were not taken into account.
Although our scenarios did not take into account the
COVID-19 crisis or the conflict between Russia and Ukraine,
this did not affect their relevance. From a foresight approach,
the scenarios act as reference points, allowing for both a
broad vision of the possibilities and a systemic and dynamic
interpretative framework regarding these types of successive
crises. As such, the COVID-19 crisis initially resulted in a
strong acceleration of the digitalization of society and
consumption, which largely benefited digital players using
large platforms (in line with the cyberconsumption scenario).
This crisis then led to the EU’s ambitious post-COVID-19
recovery plan (costing more than e2tn), where green and
digital transitions of industry have a central place, in line with
our green digital technology scenario.
The war between Russia and Ukraine, for its part,
generated very strong geopolitical tensions and a serious
economic crisis through inflationary pressures and a decline
in economic growth. This last event clearly seems to be in
line with our crisis scenario, but there is no evidence that
these tensions will continue until the time horizon of our
study (2030). These exogenous shocks can therefore be
interpreted dynamically as sources of acceleration for
the occurrence of some of our scenarios. Each scenario
provides an interpretation grid for this type of event, which
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Volume 38 · Number 10 · 2023 · 2019–2029
helps to gain a better understanding of their potential
consequences on the evolution of manufacturing companies
and CL.
Notes
1. We have identified 19 articles that use foresight
approaches in the industry sector between 2010 and
2019.
2. Gerpa is the main French center of foresight.
3. Members developed a raw list of 49 technological,
economic, social and organizational changes that were
then prioritized according to their likelihood and potential
impact.
4. External experts were mobilized for all macro-variables.
With regard to the macro-variable at the center of our
problem, “distribution channel”, three experts in supply
chain management, B2B marketing and technological
forecasting of warehouses were interviewed.
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Corresponding author
Sophie Michel can be contacted at: Sophie.michel@em-
strasbourg.eu