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Project Management
 Systems Innovation Series
Series Editor:
Adedeji B. Badiru
Air Force Institute of Technology (AFIT) – Dayton, Ohio
Systems Innovation refers to all aspects of developing and deploying new technology,
methodology, techniques, and best practices in advancing industrial production and
economic development. This entails such topics as product design and development,
entrepreneurship, global trade, environmental consciousness, operations and logistics,
introduction and management of technology, collaborative system design, and prod-
uct commercialization. Industrial innovation suggests breaking away from the tra-
ditional approaches to industrial production. It encourages the marriage of systems
science, management principles, and technology implementation. Particular focus will
be the impact of modern technology on industrial development and industrialization
approaches, particularly for developing economics. The series will also cover how
emerging technologies and entrepreneurship are essential for economic development
and society advancement.

Technomics
The Theory of Industrial Evolution
H. Lee Martin
Computational Economic Analysis for Engineering and Industry
Adedeji B. Badiru and Olufemi A. Omitaomu
Industrial Project Management
Concepts, Tools, and Techniques
Adedeji Badiru, Abidemi Badiru, and Adetokunboh Badiru
Systems Thinking
Coping with 21st Century Problems
John Boardman and Brian Sauser
Triple C Model of Project Management
Communication, Cooperation, and Coordination
Adedeji B. Badiru
Knowledge Discovery from Sensor Data
Edited by Auroop R. Ganguly, Joao Gama, Olufemi A. Omitaomu, Mohamed Gaber, and
Ranga Raju Vatsavai
Handbook of Military Industrial Engineering
Edited by Adedeji B. Badiru and Marlin U. Thomas
STEP Project Management
Guide for Science, Technology, and Engineering Projects
Adedeji B. Badiru
 Conveyors
Application, Selection, and Integration
Patrick M McGuire
Inventory Management
Non-Classical Views
Edited by Mohamad Y. Jaber
Social Responsibility
Failure Mode Effects and Analysis
Holly Alison Duckworth and Rosemond Ann Moore
Moving from Project Management to Project Leadership
A Practical Guide to Leading Groups
R. Camper Bull
Innovations of Kansei Engineering
Mitsuo Nagamachi amd Anitawati Mohd Lokman
Kansei/Affective Engineering
Edited by Mitsuo Nagamachi
Industrial Control Systems
Mathematical and Statistical Models and Techniques
Adedeji B. Badiru, Oye Ibidapo-Obe, and Babatunde J. Ayeni
Project Management
Systems, Principles, and Applications, Second Edition
Adedeji B. Badiru
Statistical Techniques for Project Control
Adedeji B. Badiru and Tina Agustiady
Carbon Footprint Analysis
Concepts, Methods, Implementation, and Case Studies
Matthew John Franchetti and Defne Apul
Sustainability
Utilizing Lean Six Sigma Techniques
Tina Agustiady and Adedeji B. Badiru
Quality Tools for Managing Construction Projects
Abdul Razzak Rumane
Handbook of Industrial and Systems Engineering
Edited by Adedeji B. Badiru
Communication for Continuous Improvement Projects
Tina Agustiady
 Culture and Trust in Technology-Driven Organizations
Frances Alston
Managing Projects as Investments
Earned Value to Business Value
Stephen A. Devaux
Cellular Manufacturing
Mitigating Risk and Uncertainty
John X. Wang
Kansei Innovation
Practical Design Applications for Product and Service Development
Mitsuo Nagamachi and Anitawati Mohd Lokman
Total Project Control
A Practitioner’s Guide to Managing Projects as Investments, Second Edition
Stephen A. Devaux
Total Productive Maintenance
Strategies and Implementation Guide
Tina Kanti Agustiady and Elizabeth A. Cudney
Global Manufacturing Technology Transfer
Africa-USA Strategies, Adaptations, and Management
Adedeji B. Badiru
Guide to Environment Safety and Health Management
Developing, Implementing, and Maintaining a Continuous Improvement Program
Frances Alston and Emily J. Millikin
Project Management Simplified
A Step-by-Step Process
Barbara Karten
A Six Sigma Approach to Sustainability
Continual Improvement for Social Responsibility
Holly A. Duckworth and Andrea Hoffmeier
Project Management for Research
A Guide for Graduate Students
Adedeji B. Badiru, Christina F. Rusnock, and Vhance V. Valencia
Handbook of Construction Management
Scope, Schedule, and Cost Control
Edited by Abdul Razzak Rumane
Project Feasibility
Tools for Uncovering Points of Vulnerability
Olivier Mesly
 Essentials of Engineering Leadership and Innovation
Pamela McCauley
Learning Curves
Theory, Models, and Applications
Edited by Mohamad Y. Jaber
Handbook of Emergency Response
A Human Factors and Systems Engineering Approach
Edited by Adedeji B. Badiru and LeeAnn Racz
Project Management for the Oil and Gas Industry
A World System Approach
Adedeji B. Badiru and Samuel O. Osisanya
Profit Improvement through Supplier Enhancement
Ralph R. Pawlak
Work Design
A Systematic Approach
Adedeji B. Badiru and Sharon C. Bommer
Additive Manufacturing Handbook
Product Development for the Defense Industry
Adedeji B. Badiru, Vhance V. Valencia, and David Liu
Global Engineering
Design, Decision Making, and Communication
Carlos Acosta, V. Jorge Leon, Charles R. Conrad, and Cesar O. Malave
Handbook of Measurements
Benchmarks for Systems Accuracy and Precision
Edited by Adedeji B. Badiru, LeeAnn Racz
Design for Profitability
Guidelines to Cost Effectively Manage the Development Process of Complex Products
Salah Ahmed Mohamed Elmoselhy
Introduction to Industrial Engineering
Avraham Shtub and Yuval Cohen
Company Success in Manufacturing Organizations
A Holistic Systems Approach
Ana M. Ferreras and Lesia L. Crumpton-Young
Quality Management in Construction Projects
Abdul Razzak Rumane
Productivity Theory for Industrial Engineering
Ryspek Usubamatov
 Defense Innovation Handbook
Guidelines, Strategies, and Techniques
Edited by Adedeji B. Badiru and Cassie Barlow

For more information about this series, please visit: https://www.crcpress.com/

Systems-Innovation-Book-Series/book-series/CRCSYSINNOV
 Project Management
Systems, Principles, and Applications

Second Edition

Adedeji B. Badiru
CRC Press
Taylor & Francis Group
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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Names: Badiru, Adedeji Bodunde, 1952- author.

Title: Project management : systems, principles, and applications / by
Adedeji B. Badiru.
Description: Boca Raton : Taylor & Francis, a CRC title, part of the Taylor &
Francis imprint, a member of the Taylor & Francis Group, the academic
division of T&F Informa, plc, 2019. | Series: Systems innovation series |
Includes bibliographical references and index.
Identifiers: LCCN 2019004121 | ISBN 9781138740860 (hardback : alk. paper) |
ISBN 9780429282829 (e-book : alk. paper)
Subjects: LCSH: Project management.
Classification: LCC HD69.P75 B328 2019 | DDC 658.4/04—dc23
LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2019004121

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To the memory of Omolade Bisola in her perpetual state of being a bud.
Contents

Preface............................................................................................................................................ xxi
Acknowledgments..................................................................................................................... xxiii
Author........................................................................................................................................... xxv
Quick Reference Formulas for Project Management........................................................... xxvii

1. Systems Approach to Project Management.......................................................................1

Systems Control Framework...................................................................................................1
Diversity of Organizational Performance.............................................................................2
Definition of Systems Engineering........................................................................................4
Project Systems Logistics.........................................................................................................5
Systems Constraints.................................................................................................................5
Systems Influence Philosophy................................................................................................7
Systems Value Modeling..........................................................................................................8
Example of Value Vector Modeling...................................................................................... 10
Management by Project......................................................................................................... 11
Integrated Systems Implementation.................................................................................... 12
Critical Factors for Systems Success..................................................................................... 13
Early Systems Engineering.................................................................................................... 14
DODAF Systems Architecture for Project Management.................................................. 14
Grand Challenges for Engineering...................................................................................... 15
Systems View of the Grand Challenges............................................................................... 16
Body of Knowledge Methodology....................................................................................... 17
Components of the Knowledge Areas................................................................................. 18
Step-by-Step and Component-by-Component Implementation................................. 20
Project Systems Structure......................................................................................................22
Problem Identification....................................................................................................... 23
Project Definition............................................................................................................... 23
Project Planning................................................................................................................. 23
Project Organizing............................................................................................................. 23
Resource Allocation........................................................................................................... 23
Project Scheduling............................................................................................................. 24
Project Tracking and Reporting....................................................................................... 24
Project Control.................................................................................................................... 24
Project Termination........................................................................................................... 24
Project Systems Implementation Outline............................................................................ 25
Planning.............................................................................................................................. 25
Organizing.......................................................................................................................... 26
Scheduling (Resource Allocation)................................................................................... 26
Control (Tracking, Reporting, and Correction)............................................................. 27
Termination (Close, Phaseout)......................................................................................... 27
Documentation................................................................................................................... 28
Value of Lean Times.......................................................................................................... 28
Systems Decision Analysis.................................................................................................... 28
Step 1. Problem Statement................................................................................................. 28

xi
xii Contents

Step 2. Data and Information Requirements................................................................. 29

Step 3. Performance Measure........................................................................................... 29
Step 4. Decision Model...................................................................................................... 29
Step 5. Making the Decision.............................................................................................30
Step 6. Implementing the Decision.................................................................................. 31
Group Systems Decision-Making Models........................................................................... 31
Brainstorming..................................................................................................................... 32
Delphi Method................................................................................................................... 32
Nominal Group Technique...............................................................................................34
Interviews, Surveys, and Questionnaires....................................................................... 35
Multivote............................................................................................................................. 36
Systems Hierarchy.................................................................................................................. 36
D-E-J-I Model for Project Execution..................................................................................... 41
Design Stage of D-E-J-I Systems Model............................................................................... 41
State Transformation in Project Systems.............................................................................43
Evaluation Stage of D-E-J-I....................................................................................................44
Half-Life Computation for Learning Curves...................................................................... 45
Justification Stage of D-E-J-I.................................................................................................. 47
Integration Stage of D-E-J-I.................................................................................................... 49
Computational Example................................................................................................... 52
Exercises................................................................................................................................... 53
References................................................................................................................................54

2. Systems-Wide Project Planning......................................................................................... 55

Project Planning Objectives.................................................................................................. 55
Time–Cost–Performance Criteria for Planning.................................................................. 60
Systems Level of Planning..................................................................................................... 60
Components of a Plan............................................................................................................ 61
Motivating the Project Team................................................................................................. 62
Axiom of Theory X.................................................................................................................63
Axiom of Theory Y.................................................................................................................64
Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs...............................................................................................64
Hygiene Factors and Motivators...........................................................................................65
Management by Objective..................................................................................................... 66
Management by Exception.................................................................................................... 66
Project Feasibility Study........................................................................................................ 67
Scope of Feasibility Analysis................................................................................................. 68
Contents of Project Proposals............................................................................................... 69
Proposal Preparation......................................................................................................... 70
Proposal Incentives............................................................................................................ 72
Budget Planning..................................................................................................................... 72
Top-Down Budgeting........................................................................................................ 73
Bottom-Up Budgeting....................................................................................................... 73
Zero-Base Budgeting......................................................................................................... 73
Project Work Breakdown Structure..................................................................................... 74
Legal Systems Considerations.............................................................................................. 75
Systems Information Flow..................................................................................................... 76
Cost and Value of Information..............................................................................................77
Triple C Model......................................................................................................................... 79
Contents xiii

Communication.................................................................................................................. 79
Complexity of Multiperson Communication............................................................85
Cooperation......................................................................................................................... 87
Coordination....................................................................................................................... 89
Resolving Project Conflicts with Triple C...........................................................................90
Classical Abilene Paradox...................................................................................................... 91
Exercises................................................................................................................................... 93
Reference.................................................................................................................................. 94

3. Project Systems Organization............................................................................................. 95

Environmental Factors in Project Organization................................................................ 95
Issues in Social and Cognitive Domains............................................................................. 95
Leadership Development.................................................................................................. 95
Preparing the Project Personnel...................................................................................... 96
Project Office....................................................................................................................... 96
Organizational Breakdown Structure................................................................................. 97
Selecting an Organization Structure............................................................................... 97
Formal and Informal Structures........................................................................................... 98
Span of Control................................................................................................................... 99
Functional Organization...................................................................................................... 100
Product Organization........................................................................................................... 101
Matrix Organization Structure........................................................................................... 103
Mixed Organization Structure........................................................................................... 105
Alternate Organization Structures..................................................................................... 106
Bubble Organization Structure...................................................................................... 106
Market Organization Structure..................................................................................... 106
Chronological Organization Structure......................................................................... 107
Sequential Organization Structure............................................................................... 107
Military Organization Structure................................................................................... 108
Political Organization Structure.................................................................................... 109
Autocratic Organization Structure................................................................................ 109
Project Transfer Organization........................................................................................ 110
Organizing Multinational Projects.................................................................................... 112
Exercises................................................................................................................................. 115

4. Project Systems Scheduling.............................................................................................. 117

Fundamentals of Network Analysis.................................................................................. 117
Critical Path Method............................................................................................................ 121
Rule 1................................................................................................................................. 122
Rule 2................................................................................................................................. 122
Rule 3................................................................................................................................. 122
Rule 4................................................................................................................................. 122
Rule 5................................................................................................................................. 122
Rule 6................................................................................................................................. 122
Rule 7................................................................................................................................. 123
Rule 8................................................................................................................................. 123
CPM Calculation Example.................................................................................................. 123
Forward Pass.................................................................................................................... 123
Backward Pass.................................................................................................................. 124
xiv Contents

Determination of Critical Activities................................................................................... 125

Using Forward Pass to Determine the Critical Path................................................... 128
Subcritical Paths............................................................................................................... 128
Gantt Charts.......................................................................................................................... 129
Gantt Chart Variations.................................................................................................... 131
Activity Crashing and Schedule Compression............................................................ 134
PERT Network Analysis...................................................................................................... 140
PERT Estimates and Formulas....................................................................................... 140
Beta Distribution.............................................................................................................. 143
Triangular Distribution................................................................................................... 144
Uniform Distribution...................................................................................................... 145
Distribution of Project Duration.................................................................................... 146
Central Limit Theorem.................................................................................................... 146
Probability Calculation................................................................................................... 147
PERT Network Example.................................................................................................. 148
Precedence Diagramming Method.................................................................................... 149
Anomalies in PDM Networks........................................................................................ 156
Complexity of Project Networks.................................................................................... 157
Example of Complexity Computation........................................................................... 161
Evaluation of Solution Time........................................................................................... 162
Performance of Scheduling Heuristics......................................................................... 163
Formulation of Project Graph.............................................................................................. 164
Depth-First Search Method............................................................................................ 165
Procedure to Detect Cycles in a Network G = (N, A) Using the dfs Method.......... 165
Activity-on-Arc Representation..................................................................................... 165
Exercises................................................................................................................................. 168

5. Resource Allocation Systems............................................................................................ 175

Resource Allocation and Management.............................................................................. 175
Resource-Constrained Scheduling..................................................................................... 176
Resource Allocation Examples........................................................................................... 177
Longest-Duration-First.................................................................................................... 178
Resource Allocation Heuristics.......................................................................................... 179
Activity Time.................................................................................................................... 179
Activity Resource............................................................................................................. 180
Time Resources................................................................................................................. 180
GENRES............................................................................................................................ 180
Resource over Time......................................................................................................... 180
Composite Allocation Factor.......................................................................................... 181
Resource Scheduling Method........................................................................................ 182
Greatest Resource Demand............................................................................................ 182
Greatest Resource Utilization......................................................................................... 183
Most Possible Jobs............................................................................................................ 183
Other Scheduling Rules.................................................................................................. 183
Example of ACTIM.......................................................................................................... 184
Comparison of ACTIM, ACTRES, and TIMRES.......................................................... 185
Quantitative Modeling of Worker Assignment................................................................ 188
Takt Time for Activity Planning......................................................................................... 191
Tips for Using Takt Time................................................................................................. 192
Contents xv

Resource Work Rate.............................................................................................................. 193

Work Rate Examples............................................................................................................. 195
Resource-Constrained PDM Network............................................................................... 196
Critical Resource Diagram.................................................................................................. 198
Resource Management Constraints.............................................................................. 198
CRD Network Development.......................................................................................... 198
CRD Computations.......................................................................................................... 199
CRD Node Classifications............................................................................................... 200
RS Chart................................................................................................................................. 200
CRD and Work Rate Analysis........................................................................................ 201
Resource Loading and Leveling......................................................................................... 202
Resource Leveling............................................................................................................ 203
Resource Idleness Graph................................................................................................. 204
Probabilistic Resource Utilization...................................................................................... 204
Learning Curve Analysis.................................................................................................... 207
The Log-Linear Model..................................................................................................... 207
Average Cost Model.................................................................................................... 207
Unit Cost Model........................................................................................................... 211
Graphical Analysis........................................................................................................... 212
Multivariate Learning Curves........................................................................................ 215
Bivariate Example........................................................................................................ 217
Interruption of Learning...................................................................................................... 219
Learning Curves in Health-Care Projects......................................................................... 219
Exercises................................................................................................................................. 221
References.............................................................................................................................. 226

6. Project Control System....................................................................................................... 227

Elements of Project Control................................................................................................. 227
Control Steps..................................................................................................................... 230
Formal and Informal Control......................................................................................... 230
Schedule Control.............................................................................................................. 232
Project Tracking and Reporting..................................................................................... 233
Performance Control....................................................................................................... 236
Continuous Performance Improvement....................................................................... 237
Cost Control...................................................................................................................... 239
Information for Project Control.......................................................................................... 240
Measurement Scales........................................................................................................ 241
Data Determination and Collection.............................................................................. 242
Data Analysis and Presentation..................................................................................... 245
Raw Data...................................................................................................................... 245
Total Revenue............................................................................................................... 247
Average Revenue......................................................................................................... 247
Median Revenue.......................................................................................................... 250
Quartiles and Percentiles........................................................................................... 251
Mode............................................................................................................................. 251
Range of Revenue........................................................................................................ 251
Average Deviation....................................................................................................... 252
Sample Variance.......................................................................................................... 253
Standard Deviation.....................................................................................................254
xvi Contents

Control Charts....................................................................................................................... 255

Statistical Analysis for Project Control.............................................................................. 261
Sampling Techniques...................................................................................................... 262
Sample........................................................................................................................... 262
Diagnostic Tools............................................................................................................... 266
Probabilistic Decision Analysis.......................................................................................... 269
Normal Distribution........................................................................................................ 270
Decision Trees....................................................................................................................... 273
Project Control through Rescheduling.............................................................................. 280
Experimental Analysis for Project Control....................................................................... 281
Personnel Interactions for Experimentations.............................................................. 281
Need for Project Experimentation................................................................................. 282
Experimental Procedure................................................................................................. 283
Types of Experimentation............................................................................................... 285
Hypothesis Testing.......................................................................................................... 285
One-Tailed versus Two-Tailed Hypothesis Testing..................................................... 286
Producer’s Risk versus the Consumer’s Risk............................................................... 288
Control through Termination............................................................................................. 288
Project Control Verification and Validation................................................................. 289
What Is Verification?................................................................................................... 290
What Is Validation?..................................................................................................... 290
What to Validate.......................................................................................................... 290
How Much to Validate................................................................................................ 290
When to Validate......................................................................................................... 290
Verification and Validation Stages................................................................................. 290
Factors Involved in Validation....................................................................................... 291
How to Evaluate the System........................................................................................... 292
Sensitivity Analysis for Project Control....................................................................... 292
Exercises................................................................................................................................. 293

7. Modeling for Project Optimization................................................................................. 297

Project Modeling................................................................................................................... 297
General Project Scheduling Formulation.......................................................................... 297
Linear Programming Formulation..................................................................................... 298
Activity Planning Example.................................................................................................300
Resource Combination Example........................................................................................ 302
Resource Requirements Analysis.......................................................................................304
LP Formulation.....................................................................................................................305
Integer Programming Approach for Resource Scheduling............................................306
Time–Cost Trade-Off Model...............................................................................................309
Maximum Flow Procedure............................................................................................. 310
Time–Cost Trade-Off Procedure.................................................................................... 311
Sensitivity Analysis for Time–Cost Trade-Off............................................................ 318
Knapsack Problem........................................................................................................... 319
Knapsack Formulation for Scheduling......................................................................... 320
Example of Knapsack Activity Scheduling.................................................................. 322
Transportation Problem for Project Scheduling.......................................................... 324
Balanced versus Unbalanced Transportation Problems............................................ 326
Initial Solution to the Transportation Problem............................................................ 327
Contents xvii

Northwest-Corner Technique.................................................................................... 327

Transportation Algorithm.............................................................................................. 329
Example of Transportation Problem............................................................................. 330
Transshipment Formulation........................................................................................... 335
Assignment Problem in Project Optimization............................................................ 335
Example of Assignment Problem............................................................................. 337
Traveling Resource Formulation.................................................................................... 339
The 2-Opt Technique....................................................................................................... 341
Shortest-Path Problem..................................................................................................... 341
Goal Programming...............................................................................................................344
Resource Allocation Using Simulated Annealing...................................................... 347
Exercises................................................................................................................................. 350
References..............................................................................................................................354

8. Project Cost Systems........................................................................................................... 355

Economic Analysis Process................................................................................................. 355
Simple and Compound Interest Rates............................................................................... 355
Investment Life for Multiple Returns................................................................................ 357
Nominal and Effective Interest Rates................................................................................ 359
Cash-Flow Patterns and Equivalence................................................................................ 361
Compound Amount Factor................................................................................................. 362
Present Worth Factor............................................................................................................ 363
Uniform Series PW Factor................................................................................................... 363
Uniform Series Capital Recovery Factor...........................................................................364
Uniform Series Compound Amount Factor.....................................................................364
Uniform Series Sinking Fund Factor................................................................................. 365
Capitalized Cost Formula.................................................................................................... 366
Permanent Investments Formula....................................................................................... 367
Arithmetic Gradient Series.................................................................................................. 368
Increasing Geometric Series Cash Flow............................................................................ 369
Decreasing Geometric Series Cash Flow........................................................................... 371
Internal Rate of Return........................................................................................................ 372
Benefit–Cost Ratio................................................................................................................. 373
Simple Payback Period......................................................................................................... 374
Discounted Payback Period................................................................................................. 375
Fixed and Variable Interest Rates....................................................................................... 377
Amortization of Capitals..................................................................................................... 378
Equity Break-Even Point...................................................................................................... 380
Analysis of Tent Cash Flows............................................................................................... 382
Special Application of AGS................................................................................................. 383
Design and Analysis of Tent Cash-Flow Profiles............................................................. 383
Derivation of GTE................................................................................................................. 388
Multiattribute Project Selection.......................................................................................... 390
Utility Models........................................................................................................................ 390
Additive Utility Model......................................................................................................... 393
Multiplicative Utility Model................................................................................................ 395
Fitting a Utility Function..................................................................................................... 395
Polar Plots..............................................................................................................................400
Analytic Hierarchy Process................................................................................................. 406
xviii Contents

Cost Benchmarking.............................................................................................................. 411

Exercises................................................................................................................................. 412
References.............................................................................................................................. 414

9. Advanced Forecasting and Inventory Modeling.......................................................... 415

Forecasting Techniques........................................................................................................ 415
Forecasting Based on Averages...................................................................................... 416
Simple Average Forecast............................................................................................ 416
Period Moving Average Forecast.............................................................................. 416
Weighted Average Forecast........................................................................................ 416
Weighted T-Period Moving Average Forecast......................................................... 417
Exponential Smoothing Forecast.............................................................................. 417
Regression Analysis......................................................................................................... 418
Description of Regression Relationship................................................................... 418
Prediction..................................................................................................................... 419
Control.......................................................................................................................... 419
Procedure for Regression Analysis............................................................................... 419
Coefficient of Determination.......................................................................................... 420
Residual Analysis............................................................................................................. 421
Time Series Analysis.......................................................................................................422
Stationarity and Data Transformation.......................................................................... 424
Moving Average Processes........................................................................................ 427
Autoregressive Processes........................................................................................... 428
Classical Inventory Management.......................................................................................430
Economic Order Quantity Model..................................................................................430
Quantity Discount........................................................................................................... 432
Calculation of TRC................................................................................................................433
Evaluation of the Discount Option................................................................................433
Sensitivity Analysis......................................................................................................... 435
Wagner–Whitin Algorithm............................................................................................ 436
Notations and Variables.................................................................................................. 437
Propositions for the W–W Algorithm........................................................................... 438
Computational Example of W–W Algorithm.......................................................... 438
Silver-Meal Heuristic..................................................................................................440
Seasonal Pattern Modeling..................................................................................................442
Modeling Approach.........................................................................................................443
Standard Cyclic PDF...................................................................................................443
Expected Value............................................................................................................445
Variance........................................................................................................................445
Cumulative Distribution Function...........................................................................445
General Cyclic PDF.....................................................................................................445
Application Examples.................................................................................................446
Exercises................................................................................................................................. 451

10. Multiresource Scheduling................................................................................................. 453

Scarcity of Project Resources............................................................................................... 453
Notations Used in the Methodology.................................................................................. 453
Analysis of Project Resources.............................................................................................454
Resource Modeling Background........................................................................................ 455
Contents xix

Multiresource Methodology............................................................................................... 456

Representation of Resource Interdependencies and Multifunctionality................. 456
Modeling of Resource Characteristics............................................................................... 458
Resource Mapper.................................................................................................................. 460
Activity Scheduler................................................................................................................ 462
Model Implementation and Graphical Illustrations........................................................ 468
Sequence-Based Scheduling and Function-Based Scheduling................................. 471
References.............................................................................................................................. 472

11. Case Examples and Applications..................................................................................... 473

Case Example: Project Systems View of World Economy............................................... 473
Global Systems View of the World..................................................................................... 475
Economic Interdependence Model..................................................................................... 475
Hybridization of Cultures................................................................................................... 476
Market Integration as a Factor of Deterrent...................................................................... 477
Pursuit of Global Awareness for the Sake of Deterrent.................................................. 477
Questions for Overseas Economic Engagement............................................................... 477
Questions for Assessing Local Conditions....................................................................... 478
Questions for Economic–Cultural Nuances..................................................................... 478
Questions for Geographic Awareness............................................................................... 478
Questions for General Assessment.................................................................................... 479
Labor as a Vehicle of Mutual Development...................................................................... 479
Awareness of Overseas Workforce Constraints...............................................................480
Hierarchy of National Needs.............................................................................................. 481
Prevention Is Better than Correction................................................................................. 482
Empathy, Sympathy, and Compassion Instead of Apathy.............................................. 482
Educate..............................................................................................................................483
Engage............................................................................................................................... 483
Empower...........................................................................................................................483
Sustainability of Global Alliances...................................................................................... 483
Summary of the Case Example...........................................................................................483
References.............................................................................................................................. 490

12. Emerging Roles of Artificial Intelligence in Project Management........................... 493

Artificial Intelligence in Project Management.................................................................. 493
Background of AI.................................................................................................................. 493
The First AI Conference....................................................................................................... 496
Branches of AI....................................................................................................................... 499
Neural Networks..................................................................................................................500
Expert Systems...................................................................................................................... 501
Embedded Expert Systems.................................................................................................. 502
Conclusion and Projection................................................................................................... 503
References.............................................................................................................................. 503
Index���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������505
Preface

A systems view of the world is the premise of this book. The book’s emphasis is the belief
that there is a better way (systems approach) to accomplishing goals and objectives in
managing projects. This second edition has been updated to incorporate more recent
developments in systems models, principles, and applications of project management. Of
particular interest is the expanded inclusion of case studies. In general, project manage-
ment is the process of managing, allocating, and timing resources to achieve a given goal
in an efficient and expeditious manner. The objectives that constitute the specified goal
may be in terms of time, cost, or performance expectations. Performance can be in terms
of output quality or compliance with project requirements. A project can be simple or
complex. In each case, proven project management processes must be followed with a
world systems view of the project environment. While on-the-job training is possible for
many of the project management requirements, formal education must also be utilized.
This second edition covers contemporary tools and techniques of project management,
from an established pedagogical perspective. Specific programs that will be interested in
the book include Industrial Engineering, Systems Engineering, Construction Engineering,
Operations Research, Engineering Management, Business Management, General
Management, Business Administration, Mechanical Engineering, Civil Engineering,
Production Management, Industrial Management, and Operations Management. The
book contains ample graphical representations throughout to clarify the concepts and
techniques presented. The end-of-chapter exercises help to reinforce the topics covered in
each chapter. The World Systems View used in this book is essential for working across
countries and across cultures, which is a desirable accomplishment in the globalized and
intertwined economies of our present day.

Adedeji B. Badiru
Beavercreek, Ohio
January 2019

xxi
Acknowledgments

Several individuals contributed to the completion of this book, both in its first edition as
well as this second edition. The preparation of the manuscript spanned several years of
arduous work, assisted by students, colleagues, and professional associates. Many people
pitched in with intellectual contributions here and there. The passage of time between the
first edition and second edition saw the emergence of new knowledge, principles, and tech-
niques, which are incorporated into this updated manuscript. As in the past, notable edito-
rial comments, guidance, typing, graphics development, suggestions, and administrative
support were provided by Iswat Badiru, TJ Badiru, Abi Badiru, Ade Badiru, Mack Everly,
Anna Maloney, Annabelle Sharp, Songmi Berarducci, LeeAnn Racz, Jinan Andrews, Luke
Farrell, Jesse Peterson, Mark Skouson, Christina Akers, and Sharon Bommer. I express my
profound gratitude to them for their contributions over the past several years. I thank ven-
erable Cindy Renee Carelli, my executive editor at CRC Press, and her entire team for the
unflinching commitment, not only to the quality of the output but also to the expeditious
processing of the book manuscript. The direct involvement of so many people is a good
demonstration of a systems approach to project management, which is the premise of this
book. An author does not have all the answers, but supported by several people from a
variety of angles, he or she can deliver a marvelous manuscript.

xxiii
Author

Adedeji B. Badiru is a professor of systems engineering and dean of the Graduate School
of Engineering and Management at the Air Force Institute of Technology (AFIT). He was
previously professor and head of systems engineering and management at AFIT, professor
and department head of industrial engineering at the University of Tennessee, Knoxville,
and professor of industrial engineering and dean of University College at the University of
Oklahoma, Norman. He is a registered professional engineer (PE), a certified project man-
agement professional (PMP), a fellow of the Institute of Industrial & Systems Engineers,
and a Fellow of the Nigerian Academy of Engineering. He is also a program evaluator
for ABET. He holds a leadership certificate from the University Tennessee Leadership
Institute. He has BS in industrial engineering, MS in mathematics, and MS in industrial
engineering from Tennessee Technological University, and PhD in industrial engineering
from the University of Central Florida. Badiru is a member of the Project Management
Executive Forum, based in Cincinnati, Ohio.

xxv
Quick Reference Formulas for
Project Management

(More comprehensive formulas are provided in Appendix A)

a + 4m + b
PERT time: te =
6
(b − a)2
PERT time variance: s2 =
36
Earliest start (ES) time for Activity i: ES(i) = Max {EC(j)}
j ∈P { i }

Earliest completion (EC) time of Activity i: EC(i) = ES(i) + ti

Earliest completion time of a project: EC(Project) = EC(n), n is the last node.
Latest completion (LC) time of a project: LC(Project) = EC(Project), with no deadline
Latest completion (LC) time of a project: LC(Project) = Tp (deadline)
Latest completion (LC) time for activity i: LC(i) = Min {LS(j)}
j ∈S{ i }

Latest start time for activity i: LS(i) = LC(i) − ti

Total Slack (TS): TS(i) = LC(i) − EC(i); TS(i) = LS(i) − ES(i)
Free Slack (FS): FS(i) = Min {ES( j)} − EC(i)
j ∈S( i )

Interfering Slack (IS): IS i = TS i − FS i

Available work time − Breaks
Takt Time: T =
Customer demand
Sum of manual cycle time
Crew Size: Crew size =
TAKt time
Output Result
Efficiency: e = =
Input Effort
N

Project Network Density: D = ∑ Max{0,(p − s )}

i=1
i i

Workdays for activity

Expected % completion =
Workdays for planned
Workdays completed on project
Planned project % completion =
Total workdays planned
n!
Permutations: P ( n, m ) = , ( n ≥ m)
( n − m )!

xxvii
xxviii Quick Reference Formulas for Project Management

n!
Combinations: C ( n, m ) = , ( n ≥ m)
m ! ( n − m )!
n− s
Failure rate: q = 1 − p =
n
Expected Value: µ = ∑( xf ( x))
∞

Variance: σ = 2
∑(x − µ) 2
f ( x ) or σ =
2
∫ (x − µ)
2
f ( x ) dx
−∞
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