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ISSN 0001-4338, Izvestiya, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics, 2023, Vol. 59, Suppl. 2, pp. S128–S140.

© Pleiades Publishing, Ltd., 2023.


Russian Text © The Author(s), 2022, published in Fundamental’naya i Prikladnaya Klimatologiya, 2022, Vol. 8, No. 3, pp. 297–322.

Cold Waves in European Russia: Structure, Circulation Conditions,


and Changes in Seasonal Statistics
M. Yu. Bardina, b, c, * and T. V. Platovaa
a Izrael
Institute of Global Climate and Ecology, Moscow, 107258 Russia
b Institute
of Geography, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, 119017 Russia
c
Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, 119017 Russia
*e-mail: mick-bardin@yandex.ru
Received September 2, 2022; revised September 13, 2022; accepted September 16, 2022

Abstract—The statistics, structure, and variability of large-scale cold waves in various latitudinal zones of
European Russia (ER) in the winter and summer seasons are considered. The largest number of waves is
observed in winter in the south of ER and in summer in the north. The contribution to the total seasonal dura-
tion of the longest waves (more than 12 days) is observed in winter in the north (>40%); in summer, waves of
such duration are not observed in the center and south of ER. Winter cold waves in all zones are characterized
by areas of negative temperature anomaly, covering almost the entire territory of Russia, with centers in the
corresponding zone of the ER and extending eastward up to 140° E. Summer waves have a three-field struc-
ture with centers of cold over ER and the west of Western Siberia and over Yakutia, and a positive anomaly in
the eastern part of Western Siberia and western Central Siberia. Circulation structures in the troposphere
accompanying the cold waves and their role in the formation of temperature anomalies are discussed. In win-
ter, the H500 geopotential fields during waves in the center and south of ER are characterized by a powerful
ridge over the north of ER and the Scandinavian Peninsula (which corresponds to the Scandinavian atmo-
spheric circulation mode) and a trough in the south of ER and Western Siberia. Cold waves in the northern
zone occur with a crest in the Atlantic north and a trough in the south (the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
negative phase) and a trough in the north of ER. Summer cold waves in all zones are accompanied by a cutoff
cyclone centered in the corresponding zone (slightly to the north for waves in ER south); a negative geopo-
tential anomaly over ER corresponds to the negative phase of East Atlantic–West Russia (EAWR) mode. The
seasonal wave duration series during the 20th to the first two decades of the 21st centuries exhibits pro-
nounced long-term variability with time scales of about a decade and several decades. In summer, there has
been a downward trend in the seasonal duration of cold waves in all ER zones since the mid-1970s, especially
significant (in terms of contribution to overall variability) in the south. In winter, a downward (insignificant)
trend is observed only for waves in the north. In the south and especially in the center, the total duration of
cold waves increases from the 1990s to the end of 2000s. The connection between this behavior of the total
duration of winter waves and changes in the Atlantic–European sector leading circulation modes is discussed.

Keywords: cold waves, structure, temperature anomaly, atmospheric circulation, variability


DOI: 10.1134/S0001433823140050

INTRODUCTION the Second Assessment Report of Roshydromet on


climate change and its consequences on the territory
Changes in statistics of extreme regimes are a key of the Russian Federation (OD, 2014).
problem in modern studies of climate variability. The article (Vinogradova, 2018) provides an assess-
However, while many studies have been devoted to ment of changes in the number, intensity and duration
studying changes in the regime of extremely high tem- of cold waves in Russia in winter (December–Febru-
peratures (diurnal extremes, “heat waves”) (see, for ary) for various periods from 1961 to 2010. Khleb-
example, the bibliography in the Sixth Assessment nikova and Sall (2018) analyze the features of changes
Report of the United Nations Intergovernmental and variability of seasonal extremes (with quantile
Panel on Climate Change: IPCC, 2021), changes at thresholds of rare frequency and the use of a general-
the opposite end of the temperature distribution are ized distribution of extreme values of air temperature
studied much less intensively. In Russia, in the last during the year' cold period according to observational
decade, a number of works have been carried out that data on the territory of Russia, starting from the mid-
examine changes in statistics of extremely low tem- 20th century; the importance of estimating trends in
peratures. An overview of work up to 2014 is given in extremeness indicators for climate service objectives is

S128
COLD WAVES IN EUROPEAN RUSSIA S129

discussed. (Mirvis et al., 2022) provide a brief analysis obtaining a percentile estimate for the anomaly
of the results of studies of negative air temperature РαT '(d) according to a fivefold sample (due to the
anomalies in winter in the Northern Hemisphere; the inclusion of the two previous and two subsequent
reasons for their formation and a possible connection days) and transition to the percentile of the tempera-
with increased climate warming in the Arctic in recent ture itself: РαT(d) = РαT '(d) + eT(d). The annual vari-
decades are discussed. There are also a number of ation of temperature and then the annual variation of
regional studies of various aspects associated with cold the obtained percentile estimate is smoothed out,
waves: (Grigorieva, 2019; Kozlova and Kharlamova, since they contain significant selective artifacts—
2012; Efimova et al., 2020). interday jagged edges. A low-pass symmetrical digital
It is clear that cold extremes with fixed thresholds filter with a cutoff point of 90 days was used.
should become less frequent in the process of global
warming and, in a certain future, disappear com- Data for analysis were selected from the array of
pletely. However, the relationship between the statis- daily station temperatures and precipitation amounts
tics of extreme regimes and changes in average sea- maintained at All-Russia Research Institute of Hydro-
sonal temperatures may be nonmonotonic due to natu- meteorological Information, World Data Centre
ral fluctuations in the circulation conditions of their (Razuvaev et al., 1993; Bulygina et al., 2014): from 518
formation. Thus, (Bardin and Platova, 2019) shows the stations in the array, the longest row stations (33 in the
significant influence of some atmospheric circulation north, 59 in the center, and 27 in the south) were
modes on the frequency of extremely low daily tem- selected to calculate the index of seasonal duration of
peratures in the Russian Federation. Therefore, to cold waves (NDСW), making it possible to calculate
explain the observed changes and adequately predict the index since 1901; 367 stations with the smallest
changes in the future, knowledge of these circulation number of omissions were selected to analyze the geo-
conditions accompanying cold waves is very important. graphical distribution of anomalies over the entire ter-
Typically, extremes are analyzed at points (at mete- ritory of the Russian Federation. Some of the omis-
orological stations, if observational data are used, or at sions after 2011 were filled in using urgent SYNOP
grid points, if reanalysis data are used). This work data from the MACT database of the Russian Hydro-
takes a slightly different approach: we consider large- meteorological Center.
scale cold waves observed in the average daily tem-
perature of an entire region, i.e., covering the entire To determine circulation mechanisms and air tem-
region. Regions chosen for analysis are the latitudinal perature anomalies accompanying cold waves in ER, a
zones of European Russia (ER) (conventionally compositional method was used. Geopotential field
north, center, and south). For such waves, their statis- data H1000 and H500 were obtained from the
tics are analyzed as a whole for the period since the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis array (Kalnay et al., 1996)
beginning of the 20th century, including seasonal for four periods (00, 06, 12, and 18 UTC) since 1951;
(winter and summer) number and total duration; grid 2.5° × 2.5°. Composites were obtained both for
changes in these statistics for the entire period under the geopotential itself and for its deviations from the
review and separately during the period of modern average for 1961–1990.
global warming; structure of temperature anomalies
during cold waves; associated conditions of atmo- In this work, we used widely distributed atmospheric
spheric circulation: large-scale climate modes, and circulation indices, the data of which are easily accessi-
anticyclonic circulation, including atmospheric block- ble and constantly updated (source: https://www.cpc.
ing, as well as cyclonic activity. ncep.noaa.gov/data/teledoc/telecontents.shtml) (Barn-
ston and Livezey, 1987).
DATA AND METHODS Blockings (quasi-stationary anticyclonic circula-
Large-scale cold waves occurring over an entire tions) were defined according to (Bardin, 2007) as
region are considered. They are defined as continuous anticyclonic (H* > 0) areas with closed isolines in the
episodes lasting at least 5 days during which the aver- eddy component field H500: H*(f, l, t) = H(f, l, t) –
age daily air temperature, averaged over a selected EL(f)H(f, t), where f, l, and t are latitude, longitude, and
region, was below the 10th percentile (P10d ). Cold waves time; EL(f)H is average geopotential value at latitude f,
of the winter and summer seasons are analyzed for existing and slightly shifting for at least 5 days. The lat-
three latitudinal zones of ER: north of 60° N. ter means that (a) the distance between centers at suc-
(“north”), between 50° and 60° N (“center”), and cessive times t1 and t2 does not exceed (r1 + r2)/2, r =
south of 50° (“south”). (s/π)1/2 (s is the area inside the external bounding iso-
The algorithm for estimating quantiles of daily line); (b) over the entire period of its existence, the
temperature (Bardin and Platova, 2019) provides for center does not move away by more than the average
the preliminary exclusion of the annual variation from value of the radius ETr from the center average position
the temperature for each day (T'(d) = T(d) – eT(d)), ET(fc, lc) (ET is the average over the lifetime).

IZVESTIYA, ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC PHYSICS Vol. 59 Suppl. 2 2023


S130 BARDIN, PLATOVA

Table 1. Statistics of cold waves of various durations for 1951–2020. NCW is number of waves; NDCW is total duration
(days)
North Center South

Duration winter summer winter summer winter summer

NCW NDCW NCW NDCW NCW NDCW NCW NDCW NCW NDCW NCW NDCW

5–6 days 13 73 21 114 13 67 17 91 23 126 11 59


7–9 13 101 10 77 8 64 10 75 10 77 7 53
10–12 3 31 2 21 5 56 2 20 6 64 3 30
>12 6 151 2 27 5 70 0 0 5 105 0 0
Total 34 356 34 286 33 257 29 186 44 372 21 142
Average wave duration 10.5 8.4 7.8 6.4 8.4 6.8

RESULTS in this value. However, in the winter season, a signifi-


The general characteristics of cold waves in the cant (at the level of 5%) decrease is observed only for
northern (from 60° N), central (50°–60° N), and south- the northern parts of ER—very fast (with an average
ern (south of 50°) zones of ER are given in Table 1, speed of about 1.7 days per decade). In the southern
which presents statistics of the number and seasonal part of ER, the decrease in the NDCW value for the
duration of cold waves over a 70-year period since period since 1976 is very small and insignificant, and in
1951, for which the temperature and atmospheric cir- the period from 2003 to 2012 there are several years
culation anomaly structures will be further obtained. with high index values, which on the 13-year
For each latitude zone, the total duration of waves, as smoothed curve appears as a certain increase. The
well as the average duration of one wave, is longer in NDCW index behaves in a similar way for the central
winter. The longest waves on average are observed in part of ER, but the increase in the specified period is
the north; the average duration of even summer waves even more pronounced, so that the trend for the
here is longer than winter waves in the center (and period since 1976 turns out to be positive (albeit very
equal to the duration of winter waves in the south). small and insignificant).
Most waves are observed in the south in winter (the Summer (negative) trends are significant: for the
total duration of all waves is also the longest here), and southern zone at the 1% level and, in the northern and
in summer there were the fewest cold waves. central zones, at the 5% level. In the south, the sum-
In winter in the north, the longest (>12 days) waves mer duration of cold waves has been decreasing almost
make the maximum contribution to the total duration monotonically since 1976, and after 2000 the only
of cold waves; in the center there is approximately short cold wave was observed in 2009. In the northern
equal contribution from short (5–6 days) and long and central zones, five and six cold waves were
waves, and in the south the contribution of short waves observed, respectively, over these 20 years, three of
is noticeably greater. In winter, ultralong waves which occurred from 2005 to 2010; cold waves were
(3 weeks or more) are observed in the north and south. also observed after 2010: in the north in 2019 and in
In the north there were four of these after 1951: in the center in 2018 and 2019.
December 1955 (23 days), January–February 1969 (29), The warming of the first half of the 20th century
January–February 1985 (30), and February 1998 (21). (Gruza and Ran’kova, 2012; OD, 2014; Bokuchava
In the south there are two: in January–February 1954 and Semenov, 2018) in winter is manifested in reduced
(33 days) and January 1972 (22). It is interesting that NDCW values in the 1930s to 1950s only in the north,
such long waves were not observed in the center (the while the central and southern parts of ER, on the
longest was 18 days in January 1972, simultaneously contrary, experience the longest seasonal durations of
with the southern one). cold waves (“extreme,” according to this winter indi-
In summer, the contribution of short waves is max- cator). In summer, the effects of this warming in the
imum everywhere, and in the center and south there 1940s are observed only in the south; in the north and
are no waves longer than 12 days at all. center, lower NDCW values are observed in the 1950s.
Figure 1 shows changes in the seasonal total dura- In the north and central part, fluctuations are pro-
tion of cold waves since the beginning of the 20th cen- nounced on a scale of 1–2 decades (clearly visible on
tury. During the period of modern global warming the 5-year moving average). In winter in the north, they
(the beginning of which we attribute to the mid-1970s are almost regular, with a periodicity of about 10 years;
(Bardin et al, 2020)) it is natural to expect a decrease in the central part, until 1970, all the maxima observed

IZVESTIYA, ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC PHYSICS Vol. 59 Suppl. 2 2023


COLD WAVES IN EUROPEAN RUSSIA S131

Days
(a) 25 (d)
Days
40 North ER (summer)
North ER 20 NDCW: 5 year moving average
NDCW: 5 year moving average 13 year moving average
30 13 year moving average trend 1976—2020: –1.1 days/10 years
trend 1976—2020: –1.7 days/10 years 15
20 10
10 5

0 0
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Days
Days (b) 20 (e)
South ER (summer)
30 NDCW: 5 year moving average
ER Center 16
NDCW: 5 year moving average 13 year moving average
13 year moving average trend 1976—2020: –1.0 days/10 years
20 trend 1976—2020: –0.3 days/10 years 12

8
10
4

0 0
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Days (f)
12
Days (c) South ER (summer)
NDCW: 5 year moving average
50
South ER 13 year moving average
trend 1976—2020: –1.2 days/10 years
40 NDCW: 5 year moving average
13 year moving average
8
trend 1976—2020: –0.2 days/10 years
30
20 4
10
0 0
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Fig. 1. Changes in the total duration of winter (a, b, c) and summer (d, e, f) cold waves in different latitudinal zones of ER: north-
ern, 60°–70° N (a, d); central, 50°–60° N (b, e); and southern, 42°–50° N (c, f).

in the north are repeated, except for one: in the second In the summer season, pronounced fluctuations of
half of the 1910s. Then, from 1970 to the mid-1990s, a a similar scale were also observed, but with a slightly
period with a very low index level is observed; it differs longer period: on average of about 15 years. These
from 0 only for 5 out of 24 years. From the mid-1990s fluctuations, just like in winter, are most pronounced
to the mid-2000s, the extremity index fluctuations in in the northern and central zones. The most extreme
the north and central part of ER are antiphase; how- (with high NDCW) summer seasons were observed
from the second half of the 1960s to the second half of
ever, increased index values in the early 2010s are the 1980s, in the center and south of ER in the 1910s,
observed in both zones. Changes in the index of and in the south also in the 1920s. In contrast to win-
extreme winters in the south of ER basically repeat the ter, the only long (more than 5 years) continuous
changes in the center, but the two powerful maxima period with cold waves in summer was observed in the
observed in the center around 1940 and in the early center of ER from 1975 to 1980. On the contrary, there
1950s in the south are combined into a common period have been long periods without summer cold waves:
of high extreme values in the 1940s–1950s. Note that, for example, in the first half of the 1950s in the north
in some years of this period, no cold waves were and center and after 2010 in all zones.
observed; in general, continuous periods with cold A more detailed description of changes in the sec-
waves did not exceed 5 years, and there were few periods ond half of the 20th century, including separate
of such duration: no more than two in each zone (the changes for waves of different durations, is presented
last one was noted in the center from 2010 to 2014). in Table 2. In general, the total duration of waves and

IZVESTIYA, ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC PHYSICS Vol. 59 Suppl. 2 2023


S132 BARDIN, PLATOVA

Table 2. Statistics of cold waves of various durations for two periods: 1951–1985 and 1986–2020. NCW is number of waves;
NDCW is total duration (days). Cells where the decrease in NDCW in the last period exceeded 30% are highlighted in light
blue (additionally, bold italics indicate where the decrease is more than twofold); yellow indicates a simultaneous increase
in the number and total duration of waves
North Center South

Duration 1951–1985 1986–2020 1951–1985 1986–2020 1951–1985 1986–2020

NCW NDCW NCW NDCW NCW NDCW NCW NDCW NCW NDCW NCW NDCW

Winter

5–6 days 6 33 7 40 6 31 7 36 11 64 12 62

7–9 9 69 4 32 5 39 3 25 6 48 4 29
10–12 1 10 2 21 2 23 3 33 5 54 1 10
>12 5 114 2 37 4 57 1 13 2 55 3 50
Total 21 226 15 130 17 150 14 107 24 221 20 151
Average
wave 10.8 8.7 8.8 7.6 9.2 7.5
duration
Summer
5–6 days 15 80 6 34 9 46 8 45 8 43 3 16
7–9 6 47 4 30 8 60 2 15 5 37 2 16
10–12 1 11 1 10 8 10 1 10 3 30 0 0
>12 1 13 1 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Total 23 151 12 88 18 116 11 70 16 110 5 32

Average
wave 6.6 7.3 6.4 6.4 6.9 6.4
duration

their number decreases in all zones both in winter and In summer, a significant decrease in both the num-
summer from the first to the second half of the period ber of waves and the total duration was also observed in
1951–2020. However, in winter in the northern and all zones. However, since there were very few long cold
central zones, the main contribution to this decrease is waves (from 10 days) in summer, this decrease was
made by the longest waves (>12 days). In the north, mainly due to short and medium waves (except in the
the entire decrease in NDCW occurs due to waves of south). In the north, due to 5–6 day waves, the decrease
7–9 days (37 days) and >12 days: 77 days, i.e., twice as was 73% of the total and, in the center, due to 7–9 day
much. However, the number of waves in the gradation waves, it was almost entire. In the south, three 10-day
of 7–9 days decreases by 5 days and, in long waves, by waves were observed in 1951–85, and there were no
only 3 days. In gradations of short (5–6 days) and longer long waves after 1985: this made the largest con-
medium–long (10–12 days) waves, on the contrary, tribution to the overall decrease: 38%; the contribution
there is an increase in the total duration. In the south, of short (5–6 days) waves is 35% and medium (7–
a decrease was noted in all gradations, but the main 9 days) is 27%, so the decrease was approximately uni-
contribution was in the gradation of 10–12 days (half form in gradation (excluding waves longer than 12 days,
of the total decrease) and, in the gradation of long which simply did not occur in any of the periods). At
waves, only 7%. Average wave durations also decrease the same time, the average duration of one wave did
in all zones: by 20% in the north, 14% in the center, not change in the center; it decreased slightly in the
and 18% in the south. south (7%) and increased in the north (by 10%).

IZVESTIYA, ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC PHYSICS Vol. 59 Suppl. 2 2023


COLD WAVES IN EUROPEAN RUSSIA S133

(a)

70
–10

0
0
50

VT of cold waves: northern ER winter


30
0 60 120 180
(b)

70
–10

0
50

VT of cold waves: ER center winter


30
0 60 120 180
(c)

70

–8
50

VT of cold waves: south ER winter


30
0 60 120 180

–18 –16 –15 –14 –12 –10 –8 –5 –4 –2 0 2 4 5 8 10 qC

Fig. 2. Winter composites of surface air temperature: averages for dates of cold waves in winter lasting from 7 days from 1951 to
2020 (°С; isoline step 2°). North (a), central (b), and south (c) ER.

Geographical Patterns of Temperature Anomalies waves in the south. However, the anomaly region,
and Circulation Conditions Accompanying Cold Waves strongly compressed along the meridian during waves
Winter in the north, covers with large negative values a signifi-
cantly smaller part of ER than the weaker cold region
The anomaly fields of surface air temperature in the center during waves in the center: the –10°C
(SAT) during long-term (from 7 days) cold waves in iso-anomaly with waves in the center covers almost
different latitudinal zones are geometrically very simi- the entire ER from 45° to 65° N and, with waves in the
lar to each other: the pronounced center is about 45– north, only from 60° to 70° N; in longitude in both
50° E. Negative isoanomalies are stretched along the cases it extends from 27° to 65° E, i.e., throughout the
latitude circles and are significantly (approximately entire ER. The anomaly area <–10°C during southern
two times) stronger to the east: here they reach 140° E waves covers the same 10° in latitude as during north-
(for waves in the south of ER, 180°) and cover almost ern waves (44°–54° N), but a much smaller sector in
the entire territory of the country. The main differ- longitude: 35°–52° E. During waves in the south and
ence, naturally, is the maximum absolute value negative center of ER, positive anomalies of up to +6°C are
anomaly latitude: it is located in the middle of the observed on the Arctic islands.
selected latitudinal zone. There is a significant differ-
ence in the maximum magnitude: –16.8°C for northern Cold waves in the central and southern parts of ER
waves, –14.2°C for waves in the center, and –12.5°C for develop mainly against the background of increased

IZVESTIYA, ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC PHYSICS Vol. 59 Suppl. 2 2023


S134 BARDIN, PLATOVA

Table 3. Statistics of the values of the Scandinavian mode index ISCAND in the months of cold waves in winter in the central
and southern zones of ER and the NAO index INAO in the months of cold waves in winter in the northern zone; EI is the
average index value for all months with waves
%ISCAND > 0 %ISCAND > 1 %ISCAND > 2 EISCAND
Central zone 75 50 20 0.95
Southern zone 81 57 22 1.33
%INAO < 0 %INAO < –1 %INAO < –2 EINAO
Northern zone 73 46 23 –0.86

pressure over Scandinavia, the north of ER, and the the Siberian anticyclone does not completely disap-
Barents and Norwegian seas with low pressure in the pear, but is greatly weakened compared to months
south, and, in the case of the center of ER, also over with a high negative SCAND). In the case of cold
the Mediterranean Sea and the southeastern part of waves in the south, therefore, the main role is played
the North Atlantic. This situation corresponds to the not by blocking directly in the area of wave formation,
positive phase of the Scandinavian mode (SCAND) but by blocks remote from it.
and (especially for the center of ER) to the North During cold waves in the north of ER, a completely
Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) negative phase (Barnston different picture of tropospheric circulation is observed.
and Livezey, 1987). Previously, the authors showed In this case, there is a trough in the north of ER, where
that, in the NAO negative phase, the frequency of cold an area of low pressure is formed, covering the Scan-
extremes increases significantly in the north and, dinavian Peninsula in the west and spreading far to the
especially, in the south of ER in winter and, in the pos- east. In this trough, the Arctic cold air penetrates into
itive phase of SCAND, in the south and east of ER the north of ER. A powerful ridge is forming in the
(Bardin and Platova, 2019). In (Bardin et al., 2019) it Atlantic east and north, blocking the westerly trans-
is shown that, with a positive phase of the SCAND port in the Atlantic sector and, together with a trough
mode in the center of ER, anticyclonic activity in gen- in the western North Atlantic, extending far to the
eral and (for February) the frequency of blocking anti- south and forming an area of low pressure there: this
cyclonic circulations increases; the latter, as follows structure determines the negative phase of the NAO.
from the frequency composite of blocking with a pos-
itive SCAND phase for all winter months with a nega- Thus, in the central and southern zones of ER, one
tive SCAND index (Fig. 5), is also true for winter as a can expect a significant SCAND mode contribution
whole: the area of high blocking activity observed at to the development of cold waves in the winter season.
large negative SCAND in the region of the Siberian Table 3 shows the statistics of the correspondence
anticyclone completely disappears and almost the between the months with the occurrence of cold waves
same intensity area with the center in the east of ER in this zone and the SCAND phase. Obviously, a sig-
and the west of Western Siberia is formed. Thus, nificant index shift towards positive values is some-
anomalous cold temperatures over the center of ER what stronger during waves in the south, which would
during the negative SCAND phase are directly related be expected based on the shape of the geopotential
to the long-lived anticyclonic circulation in the region. anomaly average fields. Of course, it cannot be said
that cold waves necessarily occur against the back-
In general, the configurations of H500 geopotential ground of a positive SCAND (although in the case of
fields and anomalies in the case of winter cold waves in the central zone, it is more than 7 out of 10 and, in the
the south and center of ER are very similar to each south, 8 out of 10). However, it is necessary to keep in
other; one of the differences (the propagation of geo- mind that here we are talking about monthly index
potential anomalies into the eastern North Atlantic values, while the main share of waves does not exceed
with cold waves in the center) has already been men- 10 days, so the circulation structure actually observed
tioned. The second is the areas of positive and negative during the wave period is “smeared” over the entire
H500 anomalies shifted south by 5°–7° during cold month; to obtain more accurate statistics, one would
waves in the south of ER. Accordingly, the trough have to work with daily indexes, which are not avail-
penetrates further south in this case, which contributes able. They could be obtained using daily average geo-
to the influx of cold air into more southern regions. potential fields, but this would be a different set of
Note that, during cold waves in the south, the blocking indices; in principle, it is possible to obtain daily indi-
frequency area is shifted to the west of the Scandina- ces using the Barnston–Livezey mode standards as
vian Peninsula (Fig. 5c); the corresponding position of base coordinates, but it should be borne in mind that
the blocking ridge axis ensures the influx of cold air the covariance structure of monthly and daily fields is
from the Norwegian Sea to the south of ER (at the significantly different, and orthogonality cannot be
same time, the blocking activity area in the region of expected. However, it was already lost when moving

IZVESTIYA, ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC PHYSICS Vol. 59 Suppl. 2 2023


COLD WAVES IN EUROPEAN RUSSIA S135

(a) H500
70

52
5200

00
0 5200 52
540 00
50 0 5400 5200
540
0 5400
5400
CW winter north 5600 5600
30
–60 0 60 120 180
(b) H500
70 5200 5200
5200

54
0

00
50 5400 520
0 5400
540
0 5400
CW winter center 5600 5600
30
–60 0 60 120 180
(c) H500
52
70 00
0
5400
0 52 520
00
50 5400 540 5200
0 5400
5400
CW winter south 5600 560 0
30
–60 0 60 120 180
–150–100–50 –40 –30 –20 –10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Fig. 3. Winter composites of the H500 geopotential field (isolines) and VH500 anomalies (color fill): averages for dates of cold
waves in winter lasting from 7 days from 1951 to 2020 (gpm). North (a), central (b), and south (c) ER.

away from the 1950–2000 sample used in NOAA to the contribution of global warming (associated,
identify modes. Here we will do neither one nor the according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
other, leaving monthly indices and limiting ourselves Change (IPCC), primarily with the anthropogenic
to analysis at a qualitative level: this analysis, however, increase in concentration greenhouse gases in the
confidently indicates the presence of atmospheric cir- atmosphere (IPCC, 2021)), led to an accelerated
culation modes that are preferable for the implemen- increase in temperature in Northern Eurasia. Then the
tation of cold waves. NAO and SCAND indices changed the sign of the
For waves in the northern zone, the NAO negative trend, and, in the period until 2010, cooling was
phase contribution prevails (73% of all cases). In half observed in almost the entire territory of Russia except
of the remaining cases, a negative SCAND phase is the far north (Bardin et al., 2015). The corresponding
observed so that, together, the negative phases of these changes in the frequency of cold waves can be seen in
two modes explain 86% of all cold waves in the north Fig. 1: they are most pronounced in the central regions
of ER in winter. A noticeable contribution of negative and, to a lesser extent, in the north, although negative
SCAND, together with Fig. 3, shows that the waves in NAO values in the late 1990s–early 2000s were
the north are not associated with a long-lived anticy- reflected in growth of cold waves during this period,
clonic circulation in the region. The NAO negative and the rapid NAO growth after 2010 led to their com-
phase blocks the western transport and the usual plete disappearance in this zone. Nevertheless, a
movement of Atlantic cyclones (Bardin et al., 2015), rather weak decrease in the duration of cold waves in
and the trough in the north of ER provides an influx of the north against the backdrop of exceptionally rapid
cold air from the Arctic. warming in the Arctic from the mid-1990s (Doklad,
2022) indicates a significant contribution from circu-
The above-described circulation structures associ- lation changes.
ated with cold waves make it possible to qualitatively
explain the features of long-term changes in the statis-
tics of these waves. A number of works (Popova, 2018; Summer
Bardin and Platova, 2019; Bardin et al., 2015) show
that changes in winter temperature on a decadal scale Figure 6 shows the structure of the anomaly fields
in Northern Eurasia are closely related to changes in during waves lasting from 7 days. It is fundamentally
two modes: NAO and SCAND. The latter have been different from the structure of anomalies during winter
changing since the mid-20th century in “antiphase”: waves: here a “wave” structure is observed—a tripole
until the 1990s, there was an increase in the NAO with cold centers in ER and Eastern Siberia and a
index and a decrease in SCAND, which, along with warm center in Western Siberia, most pronounced

IZVESTIYA, ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC PHYSICS Vol. 59 Suppl. 2 2023


S136 BARDIN, PLATOVA

(a)
1.5
NAO, winter
1.0
0.5
0
–0.5
–1.0
–1.5
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
(b)
1.5
1.0
0.5
0
–0.5
–1.0
SCAND
–1.5
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
1.5 (c)
1.0
0.5
0
–0.5
–1.0
EAWR
–1.5
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Fig. 4. Changes in the circulation indices NAO (a) and SCAND (b) in winter; EAWR (c) in summer.

during waves in the south of ER. The centers of the whether these cyclones are central cyclones, i.e.,
negative anomaly areas in ER are located between formed at the confluence of a series of cyclones (see the
40°–50° E in the corresponding latitudinal zones, and article Central Cyclone in the same place). The ridge in
these regions themselves cover the entire ER and part the west is especially strong, with waves in the north and
of Western Siberia. For waves in the north, the anom- in the center: it covers Scandinavia and the northern
aly reaches –7.3°С (Arkhangelsk); for waves in the Atlantic, with waves in the south in Scandinavia and the
central zone it reaches –6.5°С (Middle Volga); and, in northwest of ER. The ridge in Western and Central
the south, it reaches –5.5°С (Kalmykia). During Siberia and the trough in Yakutia explain the noted
waves in the south of ER, the negative anomalies in wavelike structure of temperature anomalies.
the east (in Yakutia) reach –3.8°C, and positive In summer, first and foremost, we expect for all
anomalies in Western Siberia +3.5°C (Yamalo-Nenets zones the positive phase contribution of the Eastern
Autonomous Okrug). Atlantic–Western Russia (EAWR+) mode, which is
The tropospheric circulation (Fig. 7) is character- characterized by a negative pressure anomaly in ER (at
ized primarily by a deep trough over ER, and even on the same time, there is reduced anticyclonic activity in
the average map closed isohypses are observed (espe- the north and increased cyclonic activity throughout
cially pronounced for northern waves and waves in the ER (Cherenkova et al., 2020), as well as, in the north
center), i.e., cold waves of the summer season are and center, positive SCAND+ (positive anomaly over
mainly associated with a slow-moving cutoff cyclone Scandinavia) and negative NAO–, and, in the south,
over ER—an isolated cold air mass that penetrated SCAND+ and NAO+. For the northern zone, EAWR+
from the polar to more southern latitudes (see the arti- is observed for 75% of cold waves and the combination
cles “Cutoff” and “Cutoff Cyclone” in the meteoro-
logical dictionary of S.P. Khromov (Khromov and (EAWR–, SCAND–, NAO+) only for 5% of waves.
Mamontova, 1974). An individual analysis of the In the central zone, the contribution of EAWR+ is
development of cold waves, which is planned in the 73%; the combination (EAWR–, SCAND–, NAO+)
next part of the work, is necessary to determine occurs only once: this is 3% of all cases.

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COLD WAVES IN EUROPEAN RUSSIA S137

(a) (a)
70
5 70 0

0
5

–5
50

0
50
SCAND + winter
30 VT of cold waves: northern ER summer
30
0 60 120 0 60 120 180
(b)
(b)
70 70

0
5 –5
0

0
50 50
5

SCAND – VT of cold waves: ER center summer


30 30
0 60 120 0 60 120 180
(c)
(c)
70

0
0
70 5

0
50
5

50 VT of cold waves: south ER summer


30
CW south winter 0 60 120 180
30
0 60 120 –10–9 –8 –7 –6 –5 –4 –3 –2 –1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 qC

Fig. 5. Frequency (days/month) of blocking episodes: Fig. 6. Same as Fig. 2, for the summer.
(a, b) in winter in opposite phases of SCAND (10% of
months with the largest positive and negative index values);
(c) for dates of cold waves in winter lasting from 7 days in the zone of ER for waves lasting 5–6 days (top) and from
south.
7 days (bottom). In the case of long waves, a powerful
area of high pressure formed over Scandinavia and the
In the south, EAWR+ is observed in 69% of cases. north Atlantic completely blocks the usual movement
An additional contribution of the other two modes is of cyclones over the Atlantic and cyclogenesis in the
Newfoundland area and, in the case of short waves,
small: with EAWR–, SCAND– and NAO– are observed
the pressure in this area is not as high, and the usual
simultaneously in 20% of cases, so that in total
Newfoundland cyclogenesis and storm track over the
SCAND+ and NAO+ provide an additional only 10%. Atlantic is partially preserved. The blocking pair of a
Shown in Fig. 4c, the course of changes in the sum- ridge in the eastern Atlantic and a cut-off cyclone over
mer EAWR index indicates that the rapid decrease in ER exclude the transport of cyclones over Siberia in
the seasonal duration of cold waves in different latitu- the case of long waves and, in the case of short waves
dinal zones of ER is caused not only by an increase in in the north, mobile cyclones remain, apparently aris-
average temperature, but also by changes in circulation ing in Western Siberia on the cutoff cyclone periphery.
conditions: a negative EAWR index trend is associated, In the EAWR positive phase, cyclonic activity in sum-
as follows from the above data in Fig. 1 and Table 2, mer intensifies throughout ER, with a highlighted area
with a decrease in the number and duration of cold of a particularly strong increase in the north of West-
waves. This is due to the fact that with positive EAWR, ern Siberia (Fig. 9), where maximum cyclogenesis is
cyclonic activity on the territory of ER increases, and observed in this region (Gorbatenko et al., 2020).
with negative ones it decreases (Fig. 8) and anticy-
clonic activity increases (Cherenkova et al., 2020).
The continuation of this EAWR trend may lead to the CONCLUSIONS
complete disappearance of cold waves, as is currently The decrease in the seasonal duration of cold
observed in the south of ER. waves, which is expected with global warming, is
It is of interest to compare circulation conditions in observed in ER mainly in summer (in all latitudinal
the case of short and longer waves. Fig. 8 shows H1000 zones). In winter, a more or less monototonic decrease
composites for cold waves in the central latitudinal occurs only in the northern zone of ER, and up to the

IZVESTIYA, ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC PHYSICS Vol. 59 Suppl. 2 2023


S138 BARDIN, PLATOVA

(a) H500
70 5600

56
00
5600
56000 5600 5600
0
50
5800 5800 5800 5800
CW summer north 5800
30
–60 0 60 120 180
(b) H500
70 5600

560
5600

0
5600 0
50 5600 5600
5800 5800
CW summer center 5800 5800 5800
30
–60 0 60 120 180
(c) H500
5520 5520
70 5520

0 56 0
50 80 5680 5680
5680
CW summer south
30
–60 0 60 120 180
–150–100–50 –40 –30 –20 –10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Fig. 7. Same as Fig. 3, for the summer.

(a)
70 40
–5

–15
–50 –15
20 –5
50 –1
5 15
–5
15
–5

CW 5–6 days center


30
–60 0 60 120 180 240
(b) VH1000
70
0
–2

60
–55 –20
20

0
–5 –2
50
–5
–5 15 20
CW ≥ 7 days– center
30
–60 0 60 120 180 240
–57 –50 –40 –30 –20 –10 0 10 20 30 40 50

Fig. 8. Summer composites of the geopotential anomaly field VH1000 (color gradient) in the central zone of ER: averages for dates
of cold waves lasting from 5–6 days (a) and from 7 days (b) from 1951 to 2020 (gpm).

beginning of the 2010s it appears to be quite weak behavior of these circulation modes also mainly
against the backdrop of an exceptionally rapid increase explains long-term fluctuations in winter tempera-
in winter temperatures in the Arctic zone since the tures in Northern Eurasia (Popova, 2018; Bardin et al.,
beginning of the 1990s. In the central and southern 2015); however, as was shown in (Bardin, et al., 2019),
zones of ER, there is essentially no decrease: more- during the cooling of the 1990s–2000s, the contribu-
over, from the mid-1990s, growth is obvious, continu- tion to the average seasonal temperatures of cold
ing until the beginning of the 2010s. This circumstance anomalies formed during the quasi-stationary (block-
is associated with long-term changes in the leading ing) anticyclonic circulation in ER, associated mainly
modes of atmospheric circulation, against the back- with the positive phase of SCAND, is important.
ground of which cold waves are formed in each zone: In summer, in all zones, the decrease in the dura-
for the northern zone this is mainly the NAO and, for tion of cold waves is statistically significant and is
the central and southern zones, the SCAND. The especially pronounced and almost monotonous in the

IZVESTIYA, ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC PHYSICS Vol. 59 Suppl. 2 2023


COLD WAVES IN EUROPEAN RUSSIA S139

presence of global warming–related trends in the sta-


70 70 tistics of the main circulation modes. Therefore, to
quantify the relative contribution of warming and cir-
50 50 culation, a statistical model is needed, similar to that
used in (Bardin et al., 2019), to assess the trend of win-
ter temperature against the background of natural
30 30 fluctuations of the NAO and SCAND and to assess
changes in the circulation modes themselves on scales
10 10 of 1–3 decades—autoregressive (dynamic–stochastic)
models (Bardin, 2011). We anticipate the development
0 60 120 of this topic in the continuation of this work.

70 70 FUNDING

50 50 This work was supported by Roshydromet, topic 3.2


“Monitoring the Global Climate and the Climate of the Rus-
sian Federation and Its Regions, Including the Arctic. Devel-
30 30 opment and Modernization of Monitoring Technologies.”
This work was supported by the Russian Science Foun-
10 10
dation, project no. 19-17-00242-P “Dangerous Weather
and Climate Phenomena in Russia in the Context of Global
0 60 120
Climate Change.”
1 2 3 % This work was supported by the State Task of the Insti-
tute of Geography of the Russian Academy of Sciences
Fig. 9. Frequency of cyclones (proportion of time with the “Climate Changes and Their Consequences for the Envi-
cyclone center above a 5° × 5° grid cell, %) in summer in ronment and the Life of the Population in Russia,”
the positive and negative phases of the EAWR (averages for AAAA-A19-119022190173-2 (FMGE-2019-0009).
15% of summer months with the largest positive values and
15% of months with negative index values for the period
1951–2020), color gradient. Squares show cells where the CONFLICT OF INTEREST
difference in repeatability between phases is significant at
the 1% level: orange squares indicate that repeatability is The authors of this work declare that they have no con-
higher in the positive phase; green squares indicate that it flicts of interest.
is in the negative phase.

CONSENT TO PARTICIPATE
southern zone; here, after 2010, no cold waves were
observed at all. Along with the increase in average Informed consent was obtained from all individual par-
temperatures in the process of global warming, an ticipants included in the study.
important role in reducing the seasonal duration of
cold waves is played by the observed decrease in the
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Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovern- published maps and institutional affiliations.

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