Theoretical and Applied Climatology (2019) 137:341–352

https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-018-2601-7

ORIGINAL PAPER

A new approach in temporal-spatial reconstruction and synoptic

analysis of cold waves in the northwest of Iran
Mehdi Aalijahan 1 & Bromand Salahi 2 & Yousef Ghavidel Rahimi 3 & Manuchehr Farajzadeh Asl 3

Received: 2 August 2017 / Accepted: 15 August 2018 / Published online: 23 August 2018
# Springer-Verlag GmbH Austria, part of Springer Nature 2018

Abstract
The present paper intends to reconstruct temporal-spatial patterns of below − 15 °C cold waves in the northwest of Iran and carry
out a synoptic analysis of the patterns of these cold waves. Carrying out research on this topic can assist researchers and the state
authorities in solving problems of different spheres of society, such as agriculture, economics, public health, etc., since cold
waves can affect health problems in society and frosts can inflict severe damages to the agricultural crops and thereby lead to
serious economic losses. For the purpose of this paper, a data corpus related to a period of 142 years from 1871 to 2012 was
obtained from the relevant twentieth-century data banks of NOAA. Having sorted out the relevant data, cold waves of − 15 °C as
well as cold waves of below − 15 °C were identified in the first place. Then, the identified cold wave patterns were classified and
synoptically analyzed. The results revealed that, at the sea level, high-pressure waves from Siberia, west and northern regions
coupled with the atmospheric blockings and the northern airflow in the upper levels of the atmosphere, led to transition of cold
waves from northern latitudes to the northwest regions of Iran, resulting in very intense and long-lasting cold waves.

Keywords Extreme temperature . Temporal-spatial reconstruction . Cold waves . Northwest of Iran . NOAA data

1 Introduction economic losses. (Coville 1920; Meehl et al. 2000; Huynen

et al. 2001; Kirch et al. 2005; Gaskin et al. 2008; Montero
A cold wave is defined as a temperature drop below the et al. 2010; Datla & Shama 2010; Medvigy et al. 2012; Parry
threshold of a cold temperature with duration of cold and frost et al. 2013.)
for two consecutive days or more (Smith 2006; Diaz & Incidence of severe cold weather has been abundantly oc-
Muranane 2008; Barnett et al. 2014). Cold waves can influ- curred in different parts of the world since the ancient times
ence health problems in society and frosts can inflict severe (Takahashi 1990; Yi et al. 1996; Prieto et al. 2002; Prieto et al.
damages to the agricultural crops and thereby cause serious 2004, Ryoo et al. 2005; Kysely 2008; Cony et al. 2008;
Hankes & Walsh 2011; Radinovic & Curic 2012; Peterson
et al. 2013; Parey & Hoang 2016; Van-Oldenborgh et al.
* Bromand Salahi 2015; Mo et al. 2016; Ceccherini et al. 2015) and various
bromand416@yahoo.com
atmospheric causes and factors leading to this phenomenon
have attracted the attention of many climatologists and mete-
Mehdi Aalijahan
mehdi_alijahan@yahoo.com orologists (Vera et al. 2002; Ashcroft et al. 2009; Metz et al.
2013; Luo et al. 2014; Park et al. 2014; Piotrowicz et al. 2016).
Yousef Ghavidel Rahimi
webclima@gmail.com
Tannehill (1928) investigated the cold waves of Texas and
showed that the main factor causing cold wave incidence in
Manuchehr Farajzadeh Asl the shores of Texas was cold winds that blew from higher and
Farajzam2000@gmail.com
colder latitudes to the shores of Texas. Simons and Richter
1
University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, Ardabil, Iran (2000) studied the synoptic cold events. They compared
2 Melbourne and Perth winter and summer cold events and
Department of Physical Geography, University of Mohaghegh
Ardabili, Ardabil, Iran showed that the most common synoptic system leading to
3 this phenomenon is the passage of cold front from the city
Department of Physical Geography, Tarbiat Modares University,
Tehran, Iran and transition of Antarctica air to that area. Domonkos et al.
342
(2003) investigated temperature changes in the south and cen-
tral parts of Europe during the twentieth century and analyzed
the relationship between these changes and large-scale circu-
lation patterns. They found that the northern and eastern winds
as well as the meridian and anticyclonic positions provided
favorable conditions for extreme cold temperatures.
According to Prieto et al. (2004), although synoptic phenom-
ena play an important role in the occurrence of extreme winter
temperatures in the Spanish Peninsula, they are not the only
decisive factor. Having studied different synoptic patterns
leading to the lowest extreme temperatures in Barrow
(Alaska), Cassano et al. (2005) correlated deformations of
the minimum extreme temperatures with patterns producing
northern rainfalls. According to Cony et al. (2008), the rela-
tively weak anticyclone of the Atlantic and North Europe,
consecutive low pressures in the west and center of Europe,
west winds, barometric conditions in the Mediterranean re-
gion, and low-pressure waves of Lithuania and Estonia
which settle cold conditions in the center of Europe, are the
main causes of cold waves in Europe. Unkasevic and Tosic
(2015) considered the cold flows coming from the north and
north-east of Europe as the cause of severe Serbian colds.
Few studies have been carried out in Iran on the minimum
extreme temperatures and cold waves, including the works
done by Ahmadi & Ghavidel-Rahimi (2011), Karimi et al.
(2012), and Ghavidel-Rahimi et al. (2016). Alijani and
Houshyar (2008) showed that western high-pressure patterns,
Ural low pressure, orbital pattern, and high pressure of the
Ararat play a major role in the occurrence of severe colds in
the northwest of Iran. Lashkari (2008) showed that the
Siberian high pressure is one of the main factors which cause
severe drop in temperature and the produce cold waves in Iran.
Ghavidel-Rahimi (2009) believes that the minimum extreme
temperatures occur when high-pressure pattern is created on
the surface of the earth, and trough is formed at the upper
levels of the atmosphere. Masoudian and Darand (2011) con-
sidered extreme cold temperatures in Iran to be the result of
the following five circular patterns: (1) Siberian-European
high-pressure pattern, (2) Iceland-Siberian high-pressure pat-
tern, (3) Siberian high-pressure pattern, (4) North Caspian-
Siberian high-pressure pattern, and (5) high pressure of the
North Caspian Sea. According to the respective studies, the
dominance of high-pressure systems at the surface of the
earth, meridional airflow in the upper atmosphere, and trans-
mission of air at high-latitudes are the major factors which
result in the occurrence of cold waves. Extreme values of
meteorological elements and climatic phenomena have be-
come a major problem in human life and their activities today
(Radinovic and Curic, 2014). Radinovic and Curic (2013)
believe that the integration of threshold scales and the
related units in identifying undesirable climatic phenomena
can help better understand and measure these undesirable
climatic phenomena all over the globe. Romanic (2015)
M. Alijahan et al.
examined the long-term trends of wind blow in KOSHAVA
between 1949 and 2010 and concluded that the negative trend
of winds in KOSHAVA was mostly accompanied by synoptic
circulations, temperature variations, and the weakening of
Siberian anticyclone and the Western Mediterranean cyclone.
This research attempts to identify patterns of cold waves
with a minimum temperature of − 15 °C and less during the
142-year period (1871 to 2012) in the northwest regions of
Iran through an analysis of the synoptic factors leading to this
phenomenon. Due to the unavailability of long-term data, no
comprehensive research has been carried out on this topic in
Iran so far. The results of the present study can therefore pro-
vide the interested researchers with a comprehensive view of
cold waves and the effects of atmospheric patterns leading to
this phenomenon.
2 Data and methodology
The study area is located between north latitude of 34° to 39°
and east longitude of 44° to 50° in the northwest of Iran
(Fig. 1). The data for this study came from a relevant corpus
of upper levels of atmosphere and the Twentieth Century
Reanalysis data available at the time of data collection for this
research at the following address: https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/
psd/data/gridded/data.20thC_ReanV2.html. Compared to
ordinary data, NOAA’s Twentieth Century Data have a
better temporal-spatial resolution, therefore, better and more
acceptable accuracy. For the data of upper levels of the atmo-
sphere, the study draws upon geopotential height
(geopotential meter), sea surface pressure (hPa), zonal and
meridional winds (m/s), the 2-m surface temperature data
(°C), and the upper atmosphere temperature data (°C). The
time series data encompass the years 1871–2012, totaling
142 years of official data. Due to the lack of synoptic stations
in Iran to cover this time series, no data from land stations
were used, and we had to use only the 2-m data of minimum
surface temperature and upper atmosphere levels to identify,
classify, and extract cold waves with a minimum temperature
of − 15 °C. The data were observed four times in days (00, 06,
12, and 18 Z) with a spatial resolution of 2° in longitude and
2° in latitude, and consist of 24 pressure levels ranging from
10 to 1000 hPa. The use of high-resolution data would have
been very useful, but the big problem in Iran is the unavail-
ability of atmospheric data with a resolution higher than 2 × 2°
.Synoptic research carried out in Iran mostly draws on the data
of 2.5 × 2.5° resolution provided by the NOAA organization;
drawing on the data of 2 × 2° resolution data is a new ap-
proach adopted in the present research. Meanwhile, due to
the limited number of station data (which has been registered
since 1951 in 17 synoptic stations in the country), it is not
possible to study long-term atmospheric phenomena. Hence,
due to the lack of higher resolution atmospheric data, NOAA’s
A new approach in temporal-spatial reconstruction and synoptic analysis of cold waves in the northwest of...
Fig. 1 Map of the study area
Twentieth Century Data with 2 × 2° resolution encompassing
a time series of 142 years were used in this research for its
higher resolution.
For the purpose of the present study, cold waves with a
minimum temperature of − 15 °C with a continuity of 2 days
or more during 142 years of the sample period were extracted
from a minimum of 2-m surface temperature data. The rele-
vant data were then categorized according to frequency, se-
verity, duration, and spatial extent. For the purpose of valida-
tion of accuracy of the data, the extracted data were monitored
to the point where they matched the land station time series.
However, due to problems with availability of the data, the
limited time series of the ground station data and the difficulty
of extracting the temperature values recorded from NOAA
data, validating the used data with the ground station data
were performed only at Tabriz station as the northwest index
meteorological station in Iran. To carry out a synoptic analy-
sis, the coldest waves for each month were used. For this
purpose, composite maps of surface pressure, geopotential
height and vector wind at 500-hPa level, thickness map, tem-
perature map, and 2-m surface minimum temperature maps
were used.
343
3 Results and discussion
Having run the intended script for the temperature data re-
lated to the heights of at least 2 m above the surface level,
cold waves with severity of − 15 °C and below with a con-
tinuity of 2 days and more were extracted. The results re-
vealed that during the study period of 142 years, the north-
west of the country witnessed 180 cold waves of − 15 °C or
severer temperatures with a minimum settlement of 2 days
and/or more. Based on the results of the data analysis, the
year 1992 ranked first in terms of the number of waves with
eight recorded cold waves. The severity of recorded cold
waves during the 142 years was between − 15 °C and −
34.5 °C (Table 1).
Recorded waves belong to December, January, February,
and March. Among these months, January witnessed the
biggest number of 88 waves and March witnessed the low-
est number of two waves. Regarding the continuity of
waves during the study period of 142 years, the continuity
of cold waves varied from 2 to 23 days. Two-day-long
waves occurred 60 times and 23-day-long waves occurred
only once in 1887. On the other hand, Fig. 2a shows the
344 M. Alijahan et al.

Table 1 Characteristics of the cold waves, consisting of coldest day of waves and its temperature (C°) feature and durability of cold waves (day)

R Coldest day Coldest T (C°) Durability R Coldest day Coldest T (C°) Durability
(day) (day)
Y M D Y M D

1 1874 Jan 21 − 19.5 5 91 1951 Dec 25 − 19.5 2

2 1875 Jan 18 − 18 7 92 1953 Dec 28 and 29 − 24 4
3 1876 Jan–Feb 31J and 3F − 21 9 93 1954 Jan 15 − 30 6
4 1880 Jan–Feb 3F and 4F − 25.5 14 94 1957 Jan 22 − 24 2
5 1880 Jan 18 and 19 − 15 2 95 1957 Jan 7 and 9 − 18 6
6 1882 Jan 22 and 23 − 16.5 5 96 1957 Feb 6 − 21 3
7 1882 Feb 11 − 16.5 2 97 1959 Feb 21 − 25.5 9
8 1882 Feb 15 and 16 − 15 2 98 1959 Feb 28 − 21 2
9 1883 Jan 14 − 19.5 3 99 1964 Jan 11 − 21 10
10 1883 Jan 21 − 21 2 100 1964 Jan 19 and 20 − 33 13
11 1883 Feb 5 − 16.5 2 101 1965 Jan 17 and 18 − 18 4
12 1885 Jan 7 and 8 − 25.5 6 102 1967 Jan 22 and 23 − 16.5 2
13 1885 Jan 14 − 22.5 3 103 1967 Feb 2 − 25.5 7
14 1887 Jan–Feb 27 J − 31.5 23 104 1967 Feb 27 − 16.5 2
15 1888 Dec 28 − 19.5 2 105 1968 Jan 18, 19, and 20 − 16.5 3
16 1889 Jan–Feb 1F − 18 2 106 1968 Jan 23 − 18 2
17 1889 Jan 17 − 19.5 2 107 1968 Feb 8 − 19.5 2
18 1889 Jan 21 and 22 − 18 3 108 1969 Jan–Feb 2F − 25.5 5
19 1889 Jan 10 and 11 − 15 2 109 1969 Jan 6 and 7 − 16.5 3
20 1889 Dec 31 − 21 4 110 1969 Jan 12 − 16.5 2
21 1890 Jan 5 and 1 − 19.5 7 111 1969 Jan 17 − 18 2
22 1890 Jan 22 − 22.5 2 112 1969 Feb 14 − 16.5 2
23 1891 Jan 4 − 22.5 2 113 1970 Dec 22 − 18 3
24 1891 Jan 8 − 19.5 2 114 1971 Feb 12 − 16.5 2
25 1891 Feb 6 − 19.5 4 115 1971 Dec 17 − 18 6
26 1893 Feb 3 − 21 3 116 1972 Jan–Feb 1F − 19.5 3
27 1894 Jan 23 − 21 6 117 1972 Jan 20 − 28.5 4
28 1896 Jan 30 − 27 5 118 1972 Jan 5 − 24 8
29 1896 Feb 6 − 22.5 5 119 1972 Feb 11 − 31.5 6
30 1896 Feb 13 − 16.5 2 120 1972 Feb 23 − 31.5 6
31 1897 Dec 27 − 16.5 2 121 1972 Dec 25 − 24 8
32 1897 Dec 31 − 16.5 2 122 1973 Jan 4 − 22.5 5
33 1898 Jan 3 − 21 3 123 1973 Jan 19 − 28 4
34 1898 Jan 19 − 27 9 124 1973 Feb 2, 3, and 6 − 18 6
35 1898 Jan 30 and 31 − 18 3 125 1974 Jan 30 − 22.5 2
36 1898 Feb 28 − 18 2 126 1974 Feb 3 − 24 5
37 1901 Jan 23 and 26 − 18 6 127 1975 Feb 12 and 13 − 15 2
38 1903 Jan 24, 25, and 26 − 21 10 128 1976 Jan 12 − 16.5 3
39 1904 Jan 8 − 18 3 129 1976 Feb 14 − 18 2
40 1904 Jan 16 − 16.5 3 130 1976 Feb 18 − 19.5 4
41 1905 Jan–Feb 28 J − 19.5 8 131 1976 Feb 23 − 18 2
42 1905 Jan 22 − 22.5 3 132 1977 Jan 10 − 21 4
43 1905 Feb 24 and 25 − 15 2 133 1977 Jan 25 − 21 4
44 1905 Dec 23 − 27 10 134 1980 Jan–Feb 1F − 22.5 4
45 1907 Jan 25 − 27 8 135 1983 Jan 27 − 22.5 3
46 1907 Feb 5 − 24 3 136 1983 Jan 7 − 19.5 2
47 1908 Jan 20, 21, and 22 − 15 3 137 1985 Mar 2 − 22.5 4
A new approach in temporal-spatial reconstruction and synoptic analysis of cold waves in the northwest of... 345

Table 1 (continued)

R Coldest day Coldest T (C°) Durability R Coldest day Coldest T (C°) Durability
(day) (day)
Y M D Y M D

48 1909 Jan 8, 9, and 10 − 19.5 3 138 1985 Feb 23 − 31.5 3

49 1910 Jan 13 − 27 7 139 1986 Jan 23 and 24 − 16.5 2
50 1911 Jan 25 − 27 8 140 1988 Dec 30 and 31 − 16.5 4
51 1911 Jan 29 − 30 4 141 1989 Jan 4 − 24 12
52 1911 Feb 14 − 34.5 4 142 1989 Jan 31 − 16.5 2
53 1916 Feb 3 − 16.5 2 143 1989 Feb 3 and 6 − 21 6
54 1920 Jan–Feb 5F − 19.5 10 144 1989 Feb 17 − 18 2
55 1921 Jan 27 − 19.5 3 145 1990 Jan 11 and 12 − 19.5 5
56 1924 Dec 27, 28, 29, 30, and 31 − 19.5 6 146 1990 Jan 26 − 19.5 3
57 1925 Jan–Feb 27 J − 34.5 18 147 1991 Feb 10, 11, and 12 − 15 3
58 1925 Feb 15, 16, 17, 18, and 19 − 15 5 148 1992 Mar 12 − 25.5 12
59 1925 Feb 10 and 11 − 18 2 149 1992 Jan 6, 8, 9, and 11 − 18 8
60 1927 Feb 17 and 18 − 24 7 150 1992 Jan 28 − 24 5
61 1927 Dec 8 − 25.5 4 151 1992 Jan 16 − 18 2
62 1931 Jan 25 − 19.5 3 152 1992 Feb 9 − 27 3
63 1931 Dec 25 and 26 − 22.5 3 153 1992 Feb 28 − 16.5 3
64 1932 Jan 29 − 18 2 154 1992 Feb 15 and 16 − 15 2
65 1932 Feb 9 − 22.5 4 155 1992 Dec 29 and 30 − 19.5 5
66 1933 Dec 5 and 6 − 15 2 156 1993 Jan 15 and 17 − 27 10
67 1934 Jan 27 − 21 3 157 1993 Jan 1 − 19.5 2
68 1935 Jan 11 − 19.5 4 158 1993 Feb 17 and 18 − 22.5 4
69 1937 Jan 1 − 19.5 3 159 1993 Feb 23 − 21 2
70 1937 Jan 28 − 19.5 2 160 1994 Feb 19 − 19.2 2
71 1937 Feb 4 and 5 − 19.5 3 161 1994 Dec 7 − 28.5 8
72 1938 Feb 12 − 18 2 162 1997 Jan 28 − 16.5 2
73 1940 Jan 13 − 24 5 163 1997 Feb 7 and 8 − 16.5 3
74 1942 Jan 6 − 19.5 4 164 2000 Jan–Feb 9F − 22.5 13
75 1944 Jan 18 − 16.5 2 165 2001 Jan 30 − 18 3
76 1944 Feb 3 − 16.5 2 166 2002 Jan 10 − 24 3
77 1946 Jan 28 and 29 − 18 3 167 2002 Dec 27 − 34.5 9
78 1947 Feb 4 − 16.5 2 168 2002 Dec 14 − 16.5 2
79 1947 Dec 26 − 16.5 2 169 2005 Feb 14 − 24 3
80 1948 Dec 28 − 16.5 2 172 2006 Jan–Feb 31 − 24 4
81 1948 Dec 31 − 21 2 170 2006 Jan 16 and 17 − 21 3
82 1949 Jan 7 − 21 5 171 2006 Jan 22 − 22.5 2
83 1949 Jan 1 − 22.5 3 173 2006 Dec 29 − 22.5 4
84 1949 Feb 21 − 21 3 174 2007 Jan 2 − 22.5 3
85 1949 Feb 10 − 18 3 175 2007 Jan 9 − 18 3
86 1950 Jan–Feb 29 − 21 7 176 2007 Jan 17 − 16.5 2
87 1950 Jan 16 − 33 6 177 2008 Jan 16 − 25.5 12
88 1950 Feb 7 − 28.5 5 178 2008 Feb 5 − 16.5 2
89 1950 Feb 19 − 24 2 179 2009 Jan 3 − 21 3
90 1951 Feb 9 − 16.5 2 180 2009 Jan 11 and 12 − 22.5 5
346 M. Alijahan et al.

Fig. 2 a Number of cold waves in 1 year and their linear regression. b Frequency of cold waves with a duration of 2 to 23 days. c Number and percentage
of cold waves in the studied seasons

number of cold waves occurring in the 142 years.
According to the slop of the regression line, it can be said
that the number of waves occurring during the 142 years
increased with a coefficiency of 0.0429. The results of the
recorded waves are given in Fig. 2.
To validate the data, drawing on time series data from
Tabriz synoptic station were preferred over all other stations
in the northwest region of Iran due the availability of long
records of time series of atmospheric data (since 1951). The
results of the validation of the minimum temperature regis-
tered by Tabriz synoptic station and that of the 2-m above of
the Earth’s surface provided by NOAA the twentieth century
of are shown in Figs. 3 and 4. According to Fig. 4, it can be
said that the data indicate a reliable correlation with the data
provided by Tabriz synoptic station in terms of the time series
encompassing 1951–2012 and the recorded temperatures. The

Fig. 3 Comparative graph of the time series of minimum temperature recorded by Tabriz synoptic station and NCEP data encompassing 1951 to 2012
A new approach in temporal-spatial reconstruction and synoptic analysis of cold waves in the northwest of... 347

Fig. 4 Scatterplot diagram and

correlation between ground
station data and NCEP

a b

c d

Fig. 5 Composition map of sea level pressure (colored), 500-hPa geopotential height and wind vector (Time 00z). a February (14.02.1911). b January
(27.01.1925). c March (12.03.1992). d December (27.12.2002)
348 M. Alijahan et al.

a b

c d

Fig. 6 Thickness of the atmosphere (500 to 1000 hPa) (Time 00z). a February (14.02.1911). b January (27.01.1925). c March (12.03.1992). d December
(27.12.2002)

correlation between the two datasets is 71% which is signifi-
cant at 95% confidence level, confirming validity of the data
used in the study.
For the purpose of the synoptic analysis of cold waves in
the northwest of Iran, the coldest wave in each of the 4 months
was selected and analyzed. The choice was based on the fre-
quency and multiplicity of the waves during the 142 years
under study, so December 27 in 2002, January 27 in 1925,
February 14 in 1911, and March 12 in 1992 were the right
dates to choose for our purpose.
3.1 Sea surface pressure map, geopotential height,
and wind blowing in 500-hPa level
Based on the extracted maps of the days studied, the major
phenomenon on the surface level of the ground in the north-
west of the Iran is the dominance of high-pressure systems
(Fig. 5). Also, at the upper levels of atmosphere, formation
of atmospheric blocking at the geopotential height of
500 hPa coupled with the conversion of zonal flow of west-
ern wind to the meridian flow and transition of very cold
weather from western latitudes to the north west of Iran are
some of the clear characteristics of the study days. In
December, at the surface level of the ground, the Siberian
high pressure and western high pressure are active in the
area. The low pressure formed in the center of Russia
completely surrounded by the Siberian high-pressure system
leads to a change in the direction of zonal wind to the me-
ridian wind. This system regarded as an obstacle in front of
western air mass. This low-pressure system intakes high-
pressure air around the surrounding areas and this leads to
the formation of an anticlockwise flow, which ultimately
leads to the flow of cold air to the northwest of Iran at lati-
tudes over 70°. On the other hand, this cold polar air
A new approach in temporal-spatial reconstruction and synoptic analysis of cold waves in the northwest of... 349

a b

c d

Fig. 7 Temperature advection map of 500 hPa (Time 00z). a December (27.12.2002). b January (27.01.1925). c February (14.02.1911). d March
(12.03.1992)

combined with Arctic cold weather flowing toward the re-
spective area at latitudes of 65°, 60°, and 55° impose very
cold weather on the northwest of Iran.
On January 27, we observed the activity and complete
dominance of Arctic system over the weather conditions in
northwest of Iran. On this day, the Siberian high-pressure
system was partially active and dominated over controlled
the low-pressure system of northern Russia and its center.
Weakening of Siberian high pressure provided the basis for
the expansion and penetration of very cold air of Arctic from
the northern Europe to northwest of Iran. The mentioned air
flow was completely meridian and in latitudes of 70° and
higher entered the northwest of Iran, and due to long-term
transition from dry lands, it imposed very cold weather on
this area. In February, the severity and expansion of the
Siberian high pressure increased. On the other hand, the
western high pressure was also active in the region. The
combination of these two high-pressure systems led to the
formation of a blocking at the 500-hPa level in Central Asia.
By formation of the blocking, western wind flow changed to
meridian and it flooded very cold and dry climate of Siberian
and Arctic from latitudes above 70° to the northwest of the
Iran. The combination of these two high-pressure systems
and the air flowing from latitudes more than 70° led to a
sharp drop in temperature and settlement of this condition
for some days in the northwest of Iran. In March, we also
observed the integration of two high-pressure Siberian and
western systems. The existence of relatively low-pressure
systems in the south of Iran and high-pressure systems in
the north led to the rush of very cold temperatures of high
pressure toward the south. The mentioned high-pressure sys-
tem at the upper levels of the atmosphere led to the formation
of atmospheric blocking and meridian flow. The created
omega blocking on the north of the Black Sea led to the
conversion of zonal flow of the western wind to the meridian
flow. On this day, northwest of Iran was exactly in the
350 M. Alijahan et al.

a b

c d

Fig. 8 Minimum temperature at 2-m above ground surface (Time 00z). a December (27.12.2002). b January (27.01.1925). c February (14.02.1911). d
March (12.03.1992)

southeast of the blocking. These conditions imposed a very
cold weather with duration of 12 days in the northwest of
Iran.
3.2 Thickness map
Thickness maps of atmosphere indicate the low thickness of
atmosphere in the study days over the northwest of the
country (Fig. 6). Considering this important point that the
thickness of atmospheric layers in the cold weather de-
creases and becomes thicker in warm weather, it can be
concluded that there should be a good correlation between
thickness of atmosphere and atmospheric temperature.
Thickness maps, in addition to demonstrating the cold and
warm air, also show the displacement of warm and cold air
masses (Alijani 2002). In these days, the thickness of atmo-
sphere in the northwest of Iran was between 5100–5200 and
5200–5300 m, indicating the dominance of cold climate.
On the other hand, another phenomenon that is observed
is the meridian flow of the air. This flow is clearly recog-
nizable in the thickness maps of the atmosphere. This phe-
nomenon led to the creation of cold climate in the respec-
tive area. In December and March, the thickness of atmo-
sphere in the northwest of Iran was between 5200 and
5300 m, and in January and February, it was between
5100 and 5200 m.
A new approach in temporal-spatial reconstruction and synoptic analysis of cold waves in the northwest of...
3.3 Temperature advection map
Temperature advection maps in the study days indicate the
advection of northern and northwest winds over the respective
area (Fig. 7). In December and January, the Siberian cold air
flowed through latitudes higher than 70° with meridian winds
entering the northwest of Iran. In February, the created anti-
clockwise flow on the south of Russia led to the conduction of
cold weather in high latitudes to the northwest of Iran. Also, in
March, the cold air flow from latitude of 60° entered Iran from
the north and led to temperature drop.
By looking at Fig. 8, which shows minimum temperature
of 2 m above the ground level in the study days, we can
observe the effect of atmospheric systems on the northwest
of the Iran.
4 Conclusion
The results of this study indicate that 180 cold waves with a
temperature of at least − 15 °C and less occurred in the north-
west of Iran over the period of 142 years. These cold waves
were mainly observed in December, January, and February.
Based on the results, the number of cold waves with a tem-
perature of − 15 °C and less increased over the period of study.
In addition to an increase in the number of waves occurring in
the northwest of Iran, their intensity gradually increased and
colder temperatures were recorded, but the duration of the
settlement of these waves had a decreasing trend. According
to the results obtained from the study of synoptic maps, on the
surface of the earth, the Siberian high-pressure systems, west-
ern high pressure, high pressure of the Arctic at the upper
levels of the atmosphere, occurrence of atmospheric blocking,
and changes of zonal flow of the western winds to the merid-
ian flows (Domonkos et al. 2003; Alijani and Houshyar, 2008;
Lashkari 2008; Ghavidel-Rahimi 2009; Masoudian and
Darand, 2011) leads to the incidence of cold-wave tempera-
tures of − 15 °C and less in the northwest of Iran. The merid-
ional airflow leads to the transition of very cold air of northern
latitudes to the northwest of Iran (Ghavidel-Rahimi et al.
2016). The coldest waves were observed when the origin of
the cold flows was from the high latitudes. Colder waves
occurred when the origin of cold air masses were high lati-
tudes above 70°.
Acknowledgements The authors would like to thank Dr. Vali
Mohammadi, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, Ardabil, Iran, for his
kind and valuable help in preparing the manuscript. Also, we would like
to thank NOAA and Iranian Meteorological organization for letting us
access to the data of upper atmosphere. Last but not least, the authors are
very grateful to the anonymous referees for their encouragement, helpful
suggestions, and constructive comments which resulted in this improved
manuscript.
351
References
Ahmadi M, Ghavidel-Rahimi Y (2011) Identification and analysis of low
temperatures in the northwestern region of Iran using NTD method.
J Earth Sci Res 2(6):77–94
Alijani B (2002) Synoptic climatology. Samt publish. Tehran
Alijani B, Houshyar M (2008) Identification of synoptic patterns of se-
vere colds in the northwest of Iran. Physical Geography Res
Quarterly 65:1–16
Ashcroft LC, Pezza AB, Simmonds I (2009) Cold events over southern
Australia: synoptic climatology and hemispheric structure. J Clim
22(24):6679–6698
Barnett AG, Hajat S, Gasparrini A, Rocklov J (2014) Cold and heat
waves in the United States. Environ Res 112:218–224
Cassano EN, Lynch AH, Cassano JJ, Koslow MR (2005) Classification
of synoptic patterns in the western Arctic associated with extreme
events at Barrow, Alaska, USA. Clim Res 30(2):83
Ceccherini G, Russo S, Ameztoy I, Romero CP, Carmona-Moreno C
(2015) Magnitude and frequency of heat and cold waves in recent
decades: the case of South America. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci
Discuss 3:7379–7409
Cony M, Hernandez E, Del-Teso T (2008) Influence of synoptic scale in
the generation of extremely cold days in Europe. Atmósfera 21(4):
389–401
Coville FV (1920) The influence of cold in stimulating the growth of
plants. P NATL ACAD SCI USA 6(7):434–435
Datla S, Sharma S (2010) Variation of impact of cold temperature and
snowfall and their interaction on traffic volume. TRANSPORT RES
REC 2169: 107-115. doi.org/10.3141/2169-12
Diaz H, Muranane M (2008) Climate extremes to society. Cambridge
University Press
Domonkos P, Kysely J, Piotrowicz K, Petrovic P, Likso T (2003)
Variability of extreme temperature events in south-central Europe
during the 20th century and its relationship with large-scale circula-
tion. Int J Climatol 23(9):987–1010
Gaskin JW, Steiner C, Harris K, Das KC, Bibens B (2008) Effect of low-
temperature pyrolysis conditions on biochar for agricultural use. T
ASABE 51(6):2061–2069. https://doi.org/10.13031/2013.25409
Ghavidel-Rahimi Y (2009) Synoptic analysis of extreme temperatures in
the northwest of Iran during the cold season, PhD thesis, Faculty of
Literature and Humanities, Physical Geography Department,
Isfahan University, Iran
Ghavidel-Rahimi Y, Farajzadeh-Asl M, Motallbeiizadeh S (2016)
Statistical and synoptic analysis of cold waves in the northwest
region of Iran. J Appl Res Geographical Sci 16(40):29–46
Hankes IE, Walsh JE (2011) Characteristics of extreme cold air masses
over the North American sub-Arctic. J Geophys Res 116(D11):1–
11. https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JD013582
Huynen MM, Martens P, Schram D, Weijenberg MP, Kunst AE (2001)
The impact of heat waves and cold spells on mortality rates in the
Dutch population. ENVIRON HEALTH PERSP 109(5):463–470
Karimi S, Negaresh H, Tavousi T, Alijani B (2012) Synoptic analysis of
waves in Iran’s subterranean regions. Case: cold drought, February-
February 2004 Chaharmahal va Bakhtiari province. Geography
Development 10(29):55–76
Kirch W, Menne B, Bertollini R (2005) Extreme weather events and
public health responses. Springer-Verlag, Berlin Heidelberg, p 306
Kysely J (2008) Influence of the persistence of circulation patterns on
warm and cold temperature anomalies in Europe. Analysis over the
20th century. Glob Planet Chang 62:147–163
Lashkari H (2008) Synoptic analysis of cold wave 2003 in Iran.
Geographical Res 40(66):1–18
Luo D, Yao Y, Feldstein SB (2014) Regime transition of the North
Atlantic Oscillation and the extreme cold event over Europe in
January–February 2012. Mon Weather Rev 142(12):4735–4757
352
Masoudian A, Darand M (2011) Synoptic analysis of extreme tempera-
tures in Iran. Geography Development 22:165–185
Medvigy D, Walko RL, Avissar R (2012) Simulated links between defor-
estation and extreme cold events in South America. J Clim 25(11):
3851–3866
Meehl GA et al (2000) An introduction to trends in extreme weather and
climate events observations, socioeconomic impacts, terrestrial eco-
logical impacts, and model projections. B AM METEOROL SOC
81: 413-416. doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(2000)081<0413:
AITTIE>2.3.CO;2
Metz ND, Archambault HM, Srock AF, Galarneau JRTJ, Bosart LF
(2013) A comparison of South American and African preferential
pathways for extreme cold events. Mon Weather Rev 141(6):2066–
2086
Mo D, Hou Y, Li J, Liu Y (2016) Study on the storm surges induced by
cold waves in the Northern East China Sea. J MARINE SYST 160:
26–39
Montero JC, Miron IJ, Criado-Alvarez JJ, Linares C, Diaz J (2010)
Mortality from cold waves in castile-La Mancha, Spain. Sci Total
Environ 408:5768–5774
Parey S, Hoang TTH (2016) Changes in the distribution of cold waves in
France in the middle and end of the 21st century with IPSL-CM5
and CNRM-CM5 models. CLIM DYNAM 47(93-4):879–893.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2877-6
Park TW, Ho CH, Deng Y (2014) A synoptic and dynamical character-
ization of wave-train and blocking cold surge over East Asia. CLIM
DYNAM 43(3–4):753–770
Parry ML, Carter TR, Konijn NT (Eds.) (2013) The impact of climatic
variations on agriculture: volume 1: assessment in cool temperate
and cold regions. Springer Science & Business Media
Peterson TC et al (2013) Monitoring and understanding changes in heat
waves, cold waves, floods and droughts in the United States. B AM
METEOROL SOC. 821-834. doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00066.1
Piotrowicz K, Bielec-Bakowska Z, Domonkos P (2016) High atmospher-
ic pressure and accompanying cold season weather types in Poland
(1951–2010). Clim Res 67:165–177
Prieto LR, Garcia R, Diaz J, Hernandez E, del Teso T (2002) NAO
influence on the extreme winter temperature in Madrid (Spain).
Ann Geophys 20:2077–2085
M. Alijahan et al.
Prieto L, Herrera RG, Díaz J, Hernández E, Del-Teso T (2004) Minimum
extreme temperatures over peninsular Spain. Glob Planet Chang
44(1):59–71
Radinovic D, Curic M (2012) Criteria for heat and cold wave duration
indexes. Theor Appl Climatol 107:505–510
Radinovic D, Curic M (2013) Measuring system of adverse weather
phenomena. Disaster Advances 6(3):19–23
Radinovic D, Curic M (2014) Measuring scales for daily temperature
extremes, precipitation and wind velocity. Meteorol Appl 21:461–
465. https://doi.org/10.1002/met.1356
Romanic D et al (2015) Long-term trends of the ‘Koshava’ wind during
the period1949-2010. Int J Climatol 35(2):288–302. https://doi.org/
10.1002/joc.3981
Ryoo SB, Kwon KB, Jhun JG (2005) Surface and upper-level features
associated with wintertime cold surge outbreaks in South Korea.
Adv Atmos Sci 22:509–524
Simmonds I, Richter T (2000) Synoptic comparison of cold events in
winter and summerin Melbourne and Perth. Theor Appl Climatol
67(1–2):19–32
Smith J (2006) Dictionary of weather and climate, the facts on file pub-
lications. Market House Books Ltd, New York
Takahashi H (1990) Migration of the cold air mass related to rain belt
formation of the Chinese continent and atmospheric systems during
the Baiu season (in apanese). Geographical Rev Japan Series A 64:
10–24
Tannehill IR (1928) Severe cold waves on the Texsas coast. Mon Weather
Rev 56(2):41–47
Unkasevic M, Tosic I (2015) Seasonal analysis of cold and heat waves in
Serbia during the period 1949–2012. Theor Appl Climatol 120(1–
2):29–40
Van-Oldenborgh GJ, Haarsma R, De Vries H, Allen MR (2015) Cold
extremes in North America vs. mild weather in Europe: the winter
of 2013–14 in the context of a warming world. B AM METEOROL
SOC 96(5):707–714
Vera CS, Vigliarolo PK, Berbery EH (2002) Cold season synoptic-scale
waves over subtropical South America. Mon Weather Rev 130(3):
684–699
Yi Z, Sperber K, Boyle J (1996) The climatology of East Asian winter
monsoon and cold surges from 1979–1995 NCEP/NCAR
reanalyses. PCMDI Report 38:1–6