Sales (1000s of Absolute Value of Squared Forecast

Week gallons) Forecast Forecast Error Forecast Error Error

1 17
2 21 17 4 4 16
3 19 21 -2 2 4
4 23 19 4 4 16
5 18 23 -5 5 25
6 16 18 -2 2 4
7 20 16 4 4 16
8 18 20 -2 2 4
9 22 18 4 4 16
10 20 22 -2 2 4
11 15 20 -5 5 25
12 22 15 7 7 49
13 31
14 34 31 3 3 9
15 31 34 -3 3 9
16 33 31 2 2 4
17 28 33 -5 5 25
18 32 28 4 4 16
19 30 32 -2 2 4
20 29 30 -1 1 1
21 34 29 5 5 25
22 33 34 -1 1 1
Totals 2 26 94
Average 0.2222222222222 2.8888888888889 10.444444444444
23 Forecast 33
MFE MAE MSE

Naïve
 Absolute Value of
Percentage Error Percentage Error 40

19.05% 19.05% 35
-10.53% 10.53%
17.39% 17.39% 30
-27.78% 27.78%

Sales (1000s of gallons)

-12.50% 12.50% 25
20.00% 20.00%
-11.11% 11.11% 20
18.18% 18.18%
-10.00% 10.00% 15
-33.33% 33.33%
10
31.82% 31.82%

5
8.82% 8.82%
-9.68% 9.68%
0
6.06% 6.06% 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
-17.86% 17.86%
Week
12.50% 12.50%
-6.67% 6.67%
-3.45% 3.45% Sales (1000s of gallons) Forecast
14.71% 14.71%
-3.03% 3.03%
1.41% 82.77%
0.16% 9.20%

MAPE
 19 20 21 22 23 24
eek

ons) Forecast
 Sales (1000s of
Week gallons)
1 17
2 21
3 19 Sales (1000s of gallons)
4 23
40
5 18
35
6 16
7 20 30
8 18 25
9 22 20
10 20
15
11 15
12 22 10
13 31 5
14 34 0
15 31 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
16 33
17 28
18 32
19 30
20 29
21 34
22 33
s of gallons)

12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
 Sales (1000s of Absolute Value of Squared Forecast
Week gallons) Forecast Forecast Error Forecast Error Error
1 17
2 21 17 4 4 16
3 19 19 0 0 0
4 23 19 4 4 16
5 18 20 -2 2 4
6 16 19.6 -3.6 3.6 12.96
7 20 19 1 1 1
8 18 19.142857142857 -1.142857142857 1.1428571428571 1.3061224489796
9 22 19 3 3 9
10 20 19.333333333333 0.6666666666667 0.6666666666667 0.4444444444444
11 15 19.4 -4.4 4.4 19.36
12 22 19 3 3 9
13 31
14 34 31 3 3 9
15 31 32.5 -1.5 1.5 2.25
16 33 32 1 1 1
17 28 32.25 -4.25 4.25 18.0625
18 32 31.4 0.6 0.6 0.36
19 30 31.5 -1.5 1.5 2.25
20 29 31.285714285714 -2.285714285714 2.2857142857143 5.2244897959184
21 34 31 3 3 9
22 33 31.333333333333 1.6666666666667 1.6666666666667 2.7777777777778
Totals -0.269047619 18.802380952 49.924767574
Average -0.03 0.94 2.50
23 Forecast 31.5
MAE MSE
 40
Absolute Value of
Percentage Error Percentage Error
35
19.05% 19.05%
0.00% 0.00%
17.39% 17.39% 30
-11.11% 11.11%
-22.50% 22.50%
25
5.00% 5.00%

Sales (1000s of gallons)

-6.35% 6.35%
13.64% 13.64% 20
3.33% 3.33%
-29.33% 29.33%
13.64% 13.64% 15

8.82% 8.82%
10
-4.84% 4.84%
3.03% 3.03%
-15.18% 15.18% 5
1.88% 1.88%
-5.00% 5.00%
-7.88% 7.88% 0
13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
8.82% 8.82%
5.05% 5.05% Week
-5.30% 60.50%
-0.26% 3.03%

MAPE
0 21 22 23 24
 Sales (1000s of Absolute Value of Squared Forecast
Week gallons) Forecast Forecast Error Forecast Error Error
1 17
2 21
3 19
4 23 19 4 4 16
5 18 21 -3 3 9
6 16 20 -4 4 16
7 20 19 1 1 1
8 18 18 0 0 0
9 22 18 4 4 16
10 20 20 0 0 0
11 15 20 -5 5 25
12 22 19 3 3 9
13 31
14 34
15 31
16 33 32 1 1 1
17 28 33 -5 5 22
18 32 31 1 1 2
19 30 31 -1 1 1
20 29 30 -1 1 1
21 34 30 4 4 13
22 33 31 2 2 4
Totals 1.333333333 14.666666667 44.000000000
Average 0.19 2.10 6.29
23 Forecast 32
MAE MSE

#N/A #N/A
19 #N/A #N/A
20 19 #N/A
20 21 #N/A
20 20 1.6329931618555
19 19 2.3804761428476
18 18 2.3804761428476
19 18 2.0816659994661
19 20 1.6329931618555
20 20 1.1547005383793
19 2.5819888974716
19 2.8867513459481
22.666666666667 5.6108360768678
29 5.872093449655
 32 5.640462287332
32.666666666667 2.9502040105226
30.666666666667 1.6555182695279
31 1.6555182695279
30 1.6442942874387
30.333333333333 0.9622504486494
31 1.8954135676924
32 1.9813949444586
 Absolute Value of
Percentage Error Percentage Error
40

17.39% 17.39% 35
-16.67% 16.67%
-25.00% 25.00%
30
5.00% 5.00%
0.00% 0.00%
18.18% 18.18% 25

Sales (1000s of gallons)

0.00% 0.00%
-33.33% 33.33%
13.64% 13.64% 20

15

3.03% 3.03%
-16.67% 16.67% 10
4.17% 4.17%
-3.33% 3.33%
-3.45% 3.45% 5
10.78% 10.78%
6.06% 6.06%
0
0.59% 47.49% 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
0.08% 6.78%
Week

MAPE
Moving Average
25

20
#N/A
#N/A
14 15
15
Value

16
17 10
18
19 5
20
21
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Data Point
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Data Point
20 21 22 23 24

Average

Actual
Forecast

6 7 8 9 10
6 7 8 9 10
 Sales (1000s of
Week gallons) Forecast Standard Error
1 17
2 21 #N/A #N/A
3 19 #N/A #N/A
4 23 19 #N/A
5 18 21 #N/A
6 16 20 1.6329931618555
7 20 19 2.3804761428476
8 18 18 2.3804761428476
9 22 18 2.0816659994661
10 20 20 1.6329931618555
11 15 20 1.1547005383793
12 22 19 2.5819888974716
13 31
14 34 #N/A #N/A
15 31 #N/A #N/A
16 33 32 26.570660511173 32 #N/A
17 28 33 19.639340714589 32.666666666667 #N/A
18 32 31 1.6555182695279 30.666666666667 1.6555182695279
19 30 31 1.6555182695279 31 1.6555182695279
20 29 30 1.6442942874387 30 1.6442942874387
21 34 30 0.9622504486494 30.333333333333 0.9622504486494
22 33 31 1.8954135676924 31 1.8954135676924
32 1.9813949444586 32 1.9813949444586

23 Forecast 32
 Movi
40

35

30

25

20

Value
15
#N/A #N/A
#N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A 10
32 #N/A #N/A #N/A 5
32.666666666667 #N/A 32 #N/A
30.666666666667 32.666666666667 #N/A 0
1 2 3 4 5
31 30.666666666667 1.6555182695279
30 31 1.6555182695279 Data
30.333333333333 30 1.6442942874387
31 30.333333333333 0.9622504486494
32 31 1.8954135676924
32 1.9813949444586
 Moving Average

Actual
Forecast

3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Data Point
 Sales (1000s of Absolute Value of Squared Forecast
Week gallons) Forecast Forecast Error Forecast Error Error
1 17
2 21 17 4 4 16
3 19 17.04 1.96 1.96 3.8416
4 23 17.0596 5.9404 5.9404 35.28835216
5 18 17.119004 0.880996 0.880996 0.776153952016
6 16 17.12781396 -1.12781396 1.12781396 1.2719643283709
7 20 17.1165358204 2.8834641796 2.8834641796 8.3143656750363
8 18 17.145370462196 0.854629537804 0.854629537804 0.7303916468871
9 22 17.153916757574 4.846083242426 4.846083242426 23.484522792522
10 20 17.202377589998 2.7976224100017 2.7976224100017 7.8266911489437
11 15 17.230353814098 -2.230353814098 2.2303538140983 4.9744781360629
12 22 17.208050275957 4.7919497240427 4.7919497240427 22.962782157753
13 31
14 34 31 3 3 9
15 31 31.03 -0.03 0.03 0.0009
16 33 31.0297 1.9703 1.9703 3.88208209
17 28 31.049403 -3.049403 3.049403 9.298858656409
18 32 31.01890897 0.98109103 0.98109103 0.9625396091465
19 30 31.0287198803 -1.0287198803 1.0287198803 1.0582645921244
20 29 31.018432681497 -2.018432681497 2.018432681497 4.0740704897352
21 34 30.998248354682 3.001751645318 3.001751645318 9.0105129401691
22 33 31.028265871135 1.9717341288648 1.9717341288648 3.8877354749302
5 17 41
Average 0.53 1.89 4.57
23 Forecast 31.05
MAE MSE
use Data Analysis, Exponential smoothing, Dumping equal 0.99 ( 1- alpha) or 1-0.01
use input Sales, check Chart Ouput

#N/A
17
17.8
18.04
19.032
18.8256
18.26048
18.608384
18.4867072
19.18936576
19.351492608
18.4811940864
19.18495526912
21.547964215296
24.038371372237
 Absolute Value of
Percentage Error Percentage Error alpha= 0.01

19.05% 19.05%
10.32% 10.32%
25.83% 25.83%
4.89% 4.89%
-7.05% 7.05%
14.42% 14.42%
4.75% 4.75%
22.03% 22.03%
13.99% 13.99%
-14.87% 14.87%
21.78% 21.78%
#N/A
8.82% 8.82% 31
-0.10% 0.10% 31.03
5.97% 5.97% 31.0297
-10.89% 10.89% 31.049403
3.07% 3.07% 31.01890897
-3.43% 3.43% 31.0287198803
-6.96% 6.96% 31.018432681497
8.83% 8.83% 30.998248354682
5.97% 5.97% 31.028265871135
11.29% 54.04%
1.25% 6.00%

MAPE
 Sales (1000s of
Week gallons) Forecast Standard Error
1 17 #N/A #N/A
2 21 17 #N/A
3 19 17.8 #N/A
4 23 18.04 #N/A
5 18 19.032 3.7435099394374
6 16 18.8256 3.0059177189892
7 20 18.26048 3.3491610571405
8 18 18.608384 2.0062377052915
9 22 18.4867072 1.9476546820776
10 20 19.18936576 2.2905084748725
11 15 19.351492608 2.1111201814083
12 22 18.4811940864 3.262710636218
13
14 34 #N/A #N/A #N/A
15 31 34 #N/A 34
16 33 33.4 #N/A 33.4
17 28 33.32 #N/A 33.32
18 32 32.256 3.5337609804098 32.256
19 30 32.2048 3.0837172373614 32.2048
20 29 31.76384 3.3281165364212 31.76384
21 34 31.211072 2.0465817505946 31.211072
22 33 31.7688576 2.5998765339136 31.7688576

23 FORECAST 32.01508608

use Data Analysis, Exponential smoothing, Dumping equal 0.80 ( 1- alpha) or 1-0.20
use input Sales, check Chart Ouput, check Standard Error

#N/A #N/A
17 #N/A
17.8 #N/A
18.04 #N/A
19.032 3.7435099394374
18.8256 3.0059177189892
18.26048 3.3491610571405
18.608384 2.0062377052915
18.4867072 1.9476546820776
19.18936576 2.2905084748725
19.351492608 2.1111201814083
18.4811940864 3.262710636218
 alpha= 0.2

Exponential Smoothing
40
35
30
25
20
Value

15
10
5
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Data Point

Actual Forecast

1- alpha) or 1-0.20
8 9
 Forecast on 23rd week
MAPE Sales (1000s of gallons)
MRV 9.20% 33.00
AHD 3.03% 31.50
3MA 6.78% 32.00
ESF 6.00% 31.05