PRACTICAL – 2

AIM- To fit an exponential line of best fit for the data set having , population( in millions ) on y-axis, year
on x - axis .

EXPERIMENT- The data on population of the United States (in millions) as recorded by decennial census
for the period 1790-1970 (USpop). Obtain a time plot of the given data. Fit a first-degree exponential
trend to the given data. Estimate the trend values. Plot the estimated trend values within the time plot.
Population
Year (in millions)
1790 3.93
1800 5.31
1810 7.24
1820 9.64
1830 12.9
1840 17.1
1850 23.2
1860 31.4
1870 39.8
1880 50.2
1890 62.9
1900 76
1910 92
1920 105.7
1930 122.8
1940 131.7
1950 151.3
1960 179.3
1970 203.2

Also, estimate and plot the trend forecast for the years 1980 to 2010.

THEORY-

The expression for first degree exponential curve is given by : X(t)= a.bt

a is any non-zero number , b is a positive real number not equal to 1

Taking natural logarithm both side we get an expression as such: ln(X(t)) = ln(a)+ t.ln(b)

Taking ln(X(t)) as Z(t), ln(a) as A, ln(b) as B

We get: Z(t) = A + B.t …(i)

viz a straight line in logarithms.

We take the normal equations for equation (i) to estimate the coefficients A and B.

∑ Z(t) = An + B∑t

∑t.Z(t) = A∑t + B∑t2

 After getting the values of A and B from normal equations , we put them in equation (i). and to
obtain the trend values of population for those years we take exponential on both sides of eq(i)
and get
X(t)= e(A+Bt)
This way we are able to obtain the trend values of population for years 1980, and 2010 , either
by putting the year values that side or by putting the values of the transformed variable
corresponding to those year.

EXCEL CALCULATION –
Year X(t)=Population (in t=(year- t2 Z(t)=lnX(t) t.Z(t) X(t)ˆ[estimated trend values]
millions) 1880)/10
1790 3.93 -9 81 1.3686394 -12.317755 5.39563342
1800 5.31 -8 64 1.6695918 -13.356735 6.72666851
1810 7.24 -7 49 1.9796212 -13.857348 8.38605326
1820 9.64 -6 36 2.2659211 -13.595527 10.4547874
1830 12.9 -5 25 2.5572273 -12.786137 13.0338524
1840 17.1 -4 16 2.8390785 -11.356314 16.2491403
1850 23.2 -3 9 3.1441523 -9.4324568 20.2575994
1860 31.4 -2 4 3.4468079 -6.8936158 25.254895
1870 39.8 -1 1 3.6838669 -3.6838669 31.4849609
1880 50.2 0 0 3.916015 0 39.2519059
1890 62.9 1 1 4.1415462 4.1415462 48.9348587
1900 76 2 4 4.3307333 8.6614667 61.0064746
1910 92 3 9 4.5217886 13.565366 76.0560068
1920 105.7 4 16 4.6606049 18.64242 94.8180697
1930 122.8 5 25 4.810557 24.052785 118.208498
1940 131.7 6 36 4.8805266 29.28316 147.369052
1950 151.3 7 49 5.0192646 35.134852 183.723149
1960 179.3 8 64 5.1890604 41.512483 229.045346
1970 203.2 9 81 5.3141907 47.827716 285.54796

TOTAL= 0 570 69.739194 125.54204

NORMAL EQAUTIONS : COEFFICIENTS:

69.73919= 19A + 0B A = 3.67

125.542= 0A + 570B B = 0.2202491

TREND LINE :
 Z(t) = 3.67 + 0.220249t

THE ESTIMATED TREND VALUES ARE GIVEN BY THE FORMULA : : X(t)ˆ=e^(3.67+0.22049*t)

a = 39.270896
b = 1.2463872

Year t trend values

1790 -9 5.395633417
1800 -8 6.726668508
1810 -7 8.386053262
1820 -6 10.45478742
1830 -5 13.03385235
1840 -4 16.24914026
1850 -3 20.25759936
1860 -2 25.25489504
1870 -1 31.4849609
1880 0 39.25190586
1890 1 48.93485873
1900 2 61.00647463
1910 3 76.05600676
1920 4 94.81806972
1930 5 118.2084983
1940 6 147.3690522
1950 7 183.7231491
1960 8 229.0453457
1970 9 285.5479597
1980 10 355.98906
1990 11 443.8070962
2000 12 553.2887405
2010 13 689.7781333

The above table shows the fitted values for upcoming years after 1970 .

The trend Forecast for the year 1980 is 355.98906(millions) and for the year 2010 the forecasted value is
689.778133(millions).
 EXPONENTIAL(1ST DEGREE) FITTING
800
700
600
500
X(T)

400
300
200
100
0
1840
1850
1860
1870
1790
1800
1810
1820
1830

1880
1890
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
YEAR

x(t) trend values

The Blue line shows the original plotting of population values for years from 1790-1970.

The Orange line is the line of best fit of exponential (1st degree) for the population values.

RESULT-

(I) THE ESTIMATED TREND VALUES ARE GIVEN BY THE FORMULA : : X(t)ˆ=e^(3.67+0.22049*t)

(II) X(t) = 39.270896*(1.2463872)t

(III) THE FORCASTED POPULATION FOR THE YEAR 1980 IS 355.98906 MILLIONS

(IV) THE FORECASTED POPULATION FOR THE YEAR 2010 IS 689.7781333 MILLIONS.