Name:Luthando Skhosana

Grade:11A
School: Steve Tshwete Secondary
Subject: Geography
Date Of Submission: 10 May 2023

GEOGRAPHY RESEARCH
IMPACT OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FREDDY IN
MOZAMBIQUE ON THE PEOPLE AND LAND

HYPOTHESIS
Tropical cyclones remove forest canopy as well as change the
landscape near coastal areas, by moving and reshaping sand dunes
and causing extensive erosion along the coast
Freddy caused violent storms with high wind speeds, but the eye of
the cyclone was moving extremely slowly. This gave it plenty of time
to suck up large masses of water from the sea. Such slow movement
brings continuous heavy rain to affected regions, often resulting in
widespread flooding
MAPPING
BACKGROUND INFORMATION
In Tropical Cyclone Freddy’s first landfall in Inhambane province on
24 February, about 171 400 people were affected-including 10 killed,
10 injured and 5,100 displaced- by heavy rains and floods. More that
30.000 houses were affected, according to INGD as of 6 March
Tropical Cyclone Freddy originally originated in the Indian Ocean
northwest of the Australian coast. It began to move west and the wind
force reached 167mph (270km/h) at its epicenter as the climate
change causes warmer oceans, heat energy from the water’s surface is
fueling stronger storms. Tropical Cyclone Freddy, a month-long
storm, has hit the Southern Coast of Africa twice in history attacking
the likes of Mozambique, Malawi and also some Parts of South Africa
that are located on the far east side such as KwaZulu Natal and ever
since then Freddy has done more damage to the land, to the people
and also the economy affecting thousands of lives in the process

DATA ANALYSIS AND COLLECTION

The World Meteorological Organization is setting up an expert

committee to evaluate whether tropical cyclone Freddy has broken the
record as the longest-lasting tropical cyclone on record. It has been a
named tropical cyclone for 34 days, crossed the entire South Indian
Ocean and travelled more than 8,000 kilometers. The accumulated
cyclone energy (index used to measure the energy released by a
tropical cyclone) is the equivalent of an average full North Atlantic
hurricane season.
There are major socio economic and humanitarian impacts but
accurate early warnings by National Meteorological and Hydrological
Services and coordinated disaster management on the ground
prevented even greater loss of life, thus underlining the paramount
importance of Early Warnings for All. Initial unconfirmed reports
spoke of 190 deaths.
Freddy made landfall in northern Mozambique in of the province of
Zambezia on 11 March, according to the National Meteorological
Hydrological Service (INAM). This is the second time Freddy has
made landfall in Mozambique.
Destructive winds, storm surge and extreme rainfall have hit large
areas including Northeast Zimbabwe, Southeast Zambia, Malawi and
Mozambique.
Rainfall is expected to total 200 to 300 mm and as much as 400-500
mm over the landing area of Mozambique and in the mountainous
areas, generating likely severe floods.. This is more than twice the
usual monthly rainfall in a matter of days.
Malawi may receive cumulative rainfall in the order of more than 300
to 400 mm in 48 hours, causing widespread flooding and flash
flooding. Malawi’s Department of Climate Change and
Meteorological Services advised people to move to higher ground,
follow any evacuation orders and to avoid rivers. It warned of the risk
of collapse of houses and pit latrines, and power lines.
The ongoing rainfall will exacerbate flooding from Freddy’s first
passage and from heavy seasonal rains which mean that rivers are full
and ground is sodden. Southern Mozambique received more than a
year's worth of rainfall in the past month, and Madagascar got three
times the monthly average in the space of a week.
The storm first made landfall in Madagascar on 21 February and in
Southern Mozambique on 24 February. It spent several days tracking
over Mozambique and Zimbabwe, bringing heavy rains and flooding.
It then looped back towards the Mozambique Channel and picked up
energy from the warm waters and moved towards the south-western
coast of Madagascar and then back towards Mozambique.
Early Warnings for All
"Freddy is having a major socio-economic and humanitarian impact
on affected communities. The death toll has been limited by accurate
forecasts and early warnings, and coordinated disaster risk reduction
action on the ground - although even one casualty is one too
many," said Dr Johan Stander, WMO Services Director.
"This once again underlines the importance of the UN Early Warnings
for All initiative to ensure that everyone is protected in the next five
years. WMO is committed to working with our partners to achieve
this and tackle extreme weather and climate change related risks - one
of the biggest challenges of our times," he said.
Advance warnings of the storm by to WMO’s Regional Specialized
Meteorological Centre La Réunion (Meteo-France) and by the
national meteorological and hydrological services of Madagascar,
Mozambique and Malawi allowed the disaster management and
humanitarian communities to mobilize in advance, with evacuations
and pre-positioning of food supplies.
Four people have died in Madagascar due to the latest rains, bringing
Freddy’s death toll to least 21 people (10 in Mozambique and 11 in
Madagascar), according to the report from OCHA on 6 March. The
Malawi Red Cross Society said that 66 people have died in Malawi,
93 injured and 16 people as of 13 March, amid a massive search and
rescue operation.
Mozambique’s national disaster management agency INGD estimates
that 1.75 Million people have been affected, with over 8,000 persons
displaced.
Potentially record-breaking storm
Meteorologically, Freddy has been a remarkable storm. The
Australian Bureau of Meteorology, which acts as a WMO regional
centre, named Freddy on 6 February a few hundred kilometers off the
northwest coast of Australia.
Freddy tracked across the entire Indian Ocean from east to west,
affecting Mauritius and La Réunion on its long journey en route to
Madagascar. This kind of super zonal track is very rare. The most
recent recorded cases were Tropical Cyclones Leon-Eline and Hudah,
both in 2000, which like 2023 was a la Niña year.
WMO is monitoring whether Freddy will set a new record as the
longest lasting tropical cyclone. It is likely that the WMO Weather
and Climate Extremes evaluation committee will set up an
investigation AFTER the cyclone has dissipated.
"The WMO Weather and Climate Extremes Archive are currently
assembling a blue-ribbon international committee of scientists.
Once the tropical cyclone has dissipated, these experts will begin a
detailed examination of the raw data to determine if Freddy has
indeed established a record as the longest-duration tropical cyclone on
record. One question that we will be addressing is the fact that
throughout its long lifetime, the storm has periodically weakened
below tropical storm status. We will obviously need to address if that
is a concern in our evaluation," said Prof. Randall Cerveny, WMO
Weather and Climate Extremes rapporteur.
"Our evaluations are detailed scientific inquiries so they do take
time," he said.
The current record is held by Hurricane/Typhoon John, which lasted
31 days in 1994.
According to NASA, Freddy has set the record for having the highest
accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) of any southern hemisphere storm
in history. ACE is an index used to measure the total amount of wind
energy associated with a tropical cyclone over its lifetime.
The WMO Weather and Climate Extremes Archive gives details of
records for temperature, precipitation, wind speed and more.
"World record or not, Freddy will remain in any case an exceptional
phenomenon for the history of the South-West Indian Ocean on many
aspects: longevity, distance covered, remarkable maximum intensity,
accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) amount, impact on inhabited
lands ... but it will be necessary to wait until the system ends its life
cycle to make an exhaustive assessment," said Sebastien Langlade,
Head of Operations at RSMC La Réunion.
Role of climate change
According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC),
for East Southern Africa and Madagascar, there are observed and
projected increases in heavy precipitation and pluvial flooding. There
is a projected increase of average tropical cyclone wind speeds and
associated heavy precipitation and of the proportion of category 4-5
tropical cyclones.
Globally, rising mean sea levels will contribute to higher extreme sea
levels associated with tropical cyclones. Coastal hazards will be
exacerbated by an increase in the average intensity, magnitude of
storm surge and precipitation rates of tropical cyclones. There is low
confidence in changes in the future frequency of tropical cyclones at
the global scale.
Anticipated scope and scale • The estimated number of
affected people is likely to rise because of the continued impact of the
floods and once further assessment data becomes available As at 16
March, satellite imagery indicated flooding in Sofala, Tete, and
Zambezia provinces. The imagery also showed flooding in Gaza,
Inhambane, and Maputo provinces, likely a result of the aftermath of
Cyclone Freddy’s first landfall. It also showed that over 800,000
people could be exposed to flooding in the country , As at 16 March,
water levels were expected to increase in the basins of Buzi, Licungo,
Namacurro, Nioiode, Pungoe, Raragara, Rovuma, and Zambezi
Rivers, which would result in more floods. As at 16 March, urban and
peri-urban flooding in the city of Quelimane was expected to. As at
17 March, authorities forecast a further rise in water levels as a result
of continuing rainfall in river basins throughout northern
Mozambique • The figure of displaced people may also increase
because of the increased risk of flooding.

Humanitarian constraints • Road damage has limited the

ability of responders to conduct assessments and reach the affected
people. As at 15 March, the main road linking Mozambique’s
northern and southern parts was flooded just north of Quelimane city,
Zambezia province. In total, nine roads have been reported to be
impassable in Zambezia province, making it difficult for aid workers
to move.As at 17 March, a bridge collapsed on the road connecting
Cuamba in Niassa province and Nampula province because of
flooding in Namithimbua River, potentially constraining humanitarian
activities in the two provinces.Some districts in Manica province,
such as Tambara, have been isolated from road networks, potentially
hampering the humanitarian response .A lack of means of transport
and fuel in Manica has made it difficult to follow up on cholera cases
in the province.
TRAJECTORY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FREDDY AS OF 16 MARCH AS
MENTIONED BEFORE AT THE EVENTS
ACCURING AT MOZAMBIQUE
CRISIS IMPACT
Health
The presence of stagnant water, poor sanitary conditions, and limited
access to basic WASH facilities in overcrowded accommodation
centres result in a lack of hygiene and pose a high risk of the spread of
cholera, diarrhoea, and malaria. The country has been facing a cholera
outbreak since September 2022, and the cases continue to increase.
Poor sanitation and the contamination of water sources as a result of
the heavy rains and floods are contributing to the increase in these
cases. As at 18 March, the cumulative number of cholera cases
reached nearly 10,000, including at least 54 deaths across 35 districts
in seven provinces. Cholera cases have been reported in Gaza,
Inhambane, Manica, Niassa, Sofala, Tete, and Zambezia provinces. In
the week of 17 March, more than 610 cholera cases, including at least
eight deaths, were reported in the province of Zambezia (Club of
Mozambique 17/03/2023 b). The cyclone has damaged more than 50
health units, decreasing the health response capacity in the cyclone-
affected areas. The cyclone also blew off the roof of the old provincial
hospital in Quelimane, affecting the treatment of patients. For
pregnant women and women of reproductive age, dignity kits, safe
spaces, and mobile clinics are needed. The cyclone has affected an
estimated 16,000 pregnant women

WASH
The cyclone has damaged or destroyed water and sanitation systems,
resulting in a lack of access to potable water and sanitation facilities.
There have also been reports of the scarcity of water purification and
disinfection products, as well as insufficient levels of chlorine in the
water supply, especially in Manica province. These could lead to a
lack of potable water. It is estimated that more than half of the
population of Mozambique does not have access to clean water, and
more than 75% of the people do not have access to proper sanitation
facilities. One of the leading causes of death among children under
five in the country is diarrhoeal diseases linked with poor water and
sanitation. The flood situation, combined with poor sanitation
facilities, could increase the prevalence of diarrhoeal diseases.

Livelihoods
The cyclone has disrupted people’s livelihoods. Around 70% of the
population in Mozambique is employed in agriculture. As at 15
March, around 38,000 hectares of croplands were destroyed, and
about 192,000 hectares were damaged. The current main harvesting
season is expected to run until April. The impact of the loss and
damage of croplands might worsen the food insecurity situation in the
country and push some people into Crisis & levels of food insecurity.

Education
Mozambique’s literacy rate is estimated at 47% (28% for women and
60% for men). Although around 95% of girls enrol in primary school,
over half of them drop out by the fifth grade. The cyclone has
damaged around 580 schools, disrupting the education of more than
120,000 students and heightening the risk of dropouts, especially for
girls.
IMPACT ON CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE
Public infrastructure in Mozambique is severely underdeveloped,
with only 18% of highways being paved. The road network is
vulnerable to certain weather conditions, such as flooding, which may
render some roads inaccessible. The second landfall of Cyclone
Freddy caused more damage and destruction to roads and bridges, just
after the first landfall of the cyclone damaged more than 1,250km of
roads in the country. The second landfall of the cyclone also damaged
the electricity supply, water supply, and mobile telephone network in
Maganja da Costa, Mocuba, Pebane, and Quelimane cities in
Zambezia province, although these basic services had been restored as
at 15 March
DRIVERS OF THE CRISIS
Rainy season
The main driver of the crisis is the rainy season, typically spanning
from November–April, which is when storms generally occur in
Mozambique. In the last decade, five cyclones and two tropical
storms have hit the country, affecting a cumulative 3.8 million people.
Climate vulnerability
The Global Climate Index 2021 assessed that Mozambique was the
African country most vulnerable to climate change. Globally, it was
the 13th least prepared country to cope with the phenomenon. Around
60% of the total population lives in low-lying coastal areas with weak
and non-resilient infrastructure. This percentage of the population
primarily relies on local natural resources, agriculture, and fisheries
for their livelihoods, making them more vulnerable to weather events.
Alternating flood and drought events affect farmers’ and fishermen’s
ability to consistently grow crops and fish, affecting their livelihoods
and risking the increase of food insecurity and malnutrition levels
among their communities. Recurrent storms and cyclones, which have
especially been affecting Sofala and Zambezia provinces, have been
leaving communities little time to rebuild their homes and recover
their livelihoods.

COMPOUNDING/AGGRAVATING FACTORS
Food insecurity and malnutrition The impact of the cyclone is
affecting areas of the country already previously dealing with food
insecurity. In the provinces of Sofala, Tete, and Zambezia, an
estimated two million people (around 40% of the total population in
the three provinces) were facing Stressed levels of food insecurity,
and around 170,000 were facing IPC 3 levels, as per projections made
for April–September 2022. Chronic malnutrition also affects around
43% of the children under five in the country. The prevalence of
chronic malnutrition among children is higher in Cabo Delgado,
Nampula, Niassa, and Zambezia provinces. Lack of socioeconomic
resilience and coping capacity As per 2014 estimates, around 65% of
the population lived under the international poverty line of USD 2.15
(in 2017 purchasing power parity terms) per day per capita, around
46% lived under the national poverty line, and around 74% of the
population faced multidimenstional poverty. Such poverty levels
hinder the population from generating resources to reduce the impact
of shocks. A lack of coping capacity in the country means that the
population is less likely to be able to cope and recover when met with
shocks. Cyclone Freddy’s first landfall In February 2023, the
combined effects of heavy rains and cyclone Freddy’s first landfall
affected nearly 240,000 people in the provinces of Gaza, Inhambane,
Maputo, and Sofala. Around 22,000 houses were damaged, and
almost 14,000 were destroyed. Around 60 health centres were also
damaged. The aftermath of the first landfall stretched the
humanitarian capacity into a lack of supplies and staff. There was a
need for resources for the immediate recovery of agricultural
activities and key infrastructure to prevent a widespread and
prolonged crisis from affecting basic services, economic activities,
and agriculture. It is likely that there will be similar needs in the
provinces affected by the second landfall. The second landfall will
also likely stretch government and humanitarian capacities even
further.

FUNDING AND RESPONSE CAPACITY

The National Institute for Disaster Risk Management (INGD) has set
up 139 accommodations centres countrywide. The INGD has also
reinforced the pre-positioning of fuel, boats, food, and non-food
supplies. The Government can provide food assistance to about
140,000 people for a period of seven days. Humanitarian
organisations can provide food assistance to around 100,000 people
for a period of 15 days and provide medicine to 150,000 people for a
period of three months. Rapid diagnostic test kits for cholera, 50
hospital beds to support cholera treatment centres, and 14 tents and
fuel have been sent to support the Quelimane general hospital’s
cholera response. WeWorld is distributing 300 hygiene kits, including
water purifiers, to families of patients leaving the cholera treatment
centres in Gondola, Manica, and Tambara districts in the province of
Manica. The organisation is also providing disinfection and cleaning
materials to the health centres and rehydration centres in Manica
province
Prevention and Solutions from Tropical
Cyclone Freddy
Precautions that can be implemented or have
been implemented to reduce the impact of
Tropical Cyclone Freddy by the local
government include:
• Evacuation plans: The local government can develop evacuation
plans for areas that are most vulnerable to the cyclone. This plan
can include identifying evacuation centres and routes to safety.
• Communication channels: The local government can establish
communication channels to disseminate information about the
cyclone and provide updates on its progress. This can include
using social media platforms and local radio stations.
• Prepositioning of resources: The local government can
preposition resources such as food, water, and medical supplies
in areas that are likely to be affected by the cyclone. This can
ensure that these resources are readily available when needed.
• Infrastructure improvements: The local government can also
invest in infrastructure improvements such as reinforcing
buildings, bridges, and roads to withstand the impact of the
cyclone.
• Education and awareness: The local government can educate
and raise awareness among the population about the dangers of
tropical cyclones and how to prepare for them. This can include
providing information on how to secure properties, stock up on
supplies, and create emergency kits.
• Regular simulation exercises: The local government can conduct
regular simulation exercises to test the effectiveness of their
evacuation plans and the readiness of their resources.
Conclusion
Regarding the hypothesis I would have to Accept it because the
provided information in this report backs up the hypothesis meaning
that the Tropical Cyclone Freddy did destroy and affected peoples
lives and also affected the economy as well.

Bibliography
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2.https://www.rainviewer.com/blog/tropical-cyclone-freddy.html
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4.Newsframe.com