Price Action

Global technical research

Global

Laurence Balanco, CMT Too many bulls?

laurence.balanco@clsa.com Not all sentiment indicators are equal
+61 2 8571 4253
While the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) bull/bear ratio has
Jonathan Estrada moved to its highest level since January 2018, which coincided with the S&P500
jonathan.estrada@clsa.com market top at the time, our back testing shows this sentiment reading has a poor
track record. Our work shows that the Daily Sentiment Index (DSI) is a better
sentiment indicator for a contrarian call on markets. Until then, we continue to give
the benefit of doubt to the S&P500’s breakout from the September-November
consolidation pattern. On the value/growth rotation we still see another 3.6% to
10% relative outperformance by value over growth to just meet the trend mean
27 November 2020 reversion trades seen over the past decade. On the commodity side we review gold,
Brent oil and copper as well as take a look at the US dollar index.
Global q Not as good as it looks. The AAII bull/bear ratio has surged with the S&P500 through
Technical analysis the month of November to a high of 30% bull on 13 November, the highest reading since
January 2018. Typically readings of over 25% bulls has been viewed as an excessively
bullish zone and therefore a contrarian sell signal. While the extreme reading in January
2018 did mark an important peak which did see the S&P500 drop 10% over the following
days back testing however shows a poor return and hit rate to see this reading alone as
All the bulls a reliable contrarian sell signal. Since 1987, we have seen the AAII bull/bear spread close
AAII bull/bear ratio and S&P500 weekly above 25% on 114 occasions with this month’s been the 115 th. The S&P500 produced
the following returns , 10, 30, 60 and 90 days post a reading of +25%: 0.6%, 0.2%, 1%
and 1.6% respective with a hit rate of below 41%.

q Running with the bulls. Further back-testing show that the daily Sentiment Index (DSI)
a better sentiment indicator for a contrarian call on markets than the AAII bull/bear
spread. But even with the DSI we would look for further evidence of vulnerability in the
market by looking for sentiment readings of over 90% bulls coincide with the market
trading at a 10%+ premium to its 200-day MA. Currently both the S&P500 and Nasdaq
100’s DSI readings remain below 90% bulls currently at 79% and 76% bulls respectively.
In addition to the strong breadth readings which we highlighted in last week’s note (Price
Action (Sugar rush) - 19 November 2020) we would conclude that the market is in a
strongly trending phase where consensus (bullish sentiment) is right rather than acting
as a contrarian sell signal. As such any short-term pullback/pause are likely to be limited
and followed by further gains into 1Q2021.

q Value vs Growth: Are we there yet? We have viewed the value/growth set-up as a mean
reversion trade as the value vs growth ratio in a number of global markets had been
trading at their biggest discounts to their respective 200-DMA since 2000 (Price Action
(Rubber band effect) - 9 July 2020). Under this simple mean reversion trade there is still
another 3.6% to 10% of value outperformance. From a pure trend behavior perspective
we would need to see a change in the mean reversion trade parameters seen over the
past decade to signal a structural change in this trend. What we mean by this is that the
ratio would have to at least trade at a more than 6.25% premium to its 200-day MA to
signal a change in the down trending characteristics seen in the ratio over the past
All charts priced as at
decade. For now value still has room to rerate and should continue to do so into 1Q21.
26 November 2020

Sources for all charts:

Bloomberg, Updata, CLSA
q Copper: Take profit: The formation of slowing upside momentum in the form of a
price/momentum divergence on both the daily and weekly charts, coupled with bullish
Our technical view on individual stocks
may differ from our fundamental sentiment extremes as well as crowded net long positions in CMX Copper futures
recommendations suggests that a conclusive break above the US$331.50-332.20 is unlikely.

www.clsa.com

CLSA and CL Securities Taiwan Co., Ltd. (“CLST”) do and seek to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As such, investors
should be aware that there may be conflicts of interest which could affect the objectivity of the report. Investors should consider this report
as only a single factor in making their investment decisions. For important disclosures please refer to page 20.

Market sentiment has been
used as a contrarian
indicator for a number
of years
Retail bulls
AAII bull/bear spread at
30%, highest reading since
January 2018
However it has a poor track
recorded of marking peaks
Find CLSA research on Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, FactSet and CapitalIQ - and profit from our evalu@tor proprietary database at clsa.com
27 November 2020
Price Action
Global
Too many bulls?
Market sentiment and contrary opinion as measured by various indicators have been
used by investors/traders for many years. The theory of contrary opinion asserts that
if a majority of traders agrees on the direction of a market move, then the odds are
increased that price action will, in fact, move in the opposite direction. While Asian
market lack true sentiment indicators, the US equity markets have a number of
investor sentiment surveys covering different market participant. We have access to
the data from the American Association of Individual Investors bull/bear ratio as well
as the Daily Sentiment Index provided by www.trade-futures.com.
AAII Bull/bear ratio
S&P500
The AAII sentiment poll is run weekly (Thursday) and the reading reflects the
sentiment of individual investors towards the stock market over the next 6 months.
The question asked is "I feel that the direction of the stock market over the next 6
months will be". As the chart above highlight the AAII bull/bear ratio has surged
with the S&P500 through the month of November to a high of 30% bull on 13
November the highest reading since January 2018. Typically readings of over 25%
bulls has been viewed as an excessively bullish zone and therefore a contrarian sell
signal. While the extreme reading in January 2018 did mark an important peak
which did see the S&P500 drop 10% over the following days back testing however
shows a poor return and hit rate to see this reading alone as a reliable contrarian
sell signal.
Since 1987, we have seen the AAII bull/bear spread close above 25% on 114
occasions with this month’s been the 115th. The table below provides a summary of
the S&P500 returns, 10, 30, 60 and 90 days post the extreme.
laurence.balanco@clsa.com page 2

DSI daily sentiment from
small ritual traders on all
active US futures
DSI has a better track
record than the AAII
bull/bear spread January
2018
27 November 2020
Price Action
Global
AAII bull/bear ratio - Tale of the tape
The Daily Sentiment Indexes (DSI) is a sentiment poll provided by www.trade-
futures.com since 1987. The DSI has become the standard in short term market
sentiment for futures traders. This series sums the opinions of small retail traders
on all active US futures markets on a daily basis. Currently the DSI reading for the
S&P500 sit at 79% bulls. Readings of over 90% are typically seen as bullish
extremes.
S&P5000 DSI
Back testing the DSI data on the S&P500 since 1987 does produce better short-
term results than the AAII poll, but still with a hit rate of below 50%.
S&P500 DSI - Tale of the tape
Combining the two surveys looking for occasions where the AAII is above 25% and
the DSI above 90% does not improve the results with the hit rate remaining below
50%.
S&P500 returns post AAII bull/bear spread above 25% and DSI above 90%
laurence.balanco@clsa.com page 3

Combination of sentiment
and trend extremes produce
better results
Combination of sentiment and trend extreme for the S&P500
27 November 2020
Price Action
Global
For short-term correction we have found using an S&P500 DSI reading of over 90%
bulls with the S&P500 trading at a 10% premium to its 200-day MA generates
better short term results. With the S&P500 producing average returns of -0.3%
56% of the time 10 days post the simultaneous reading of the DSI above 90% bulls
and the S&P500 at a 10% premium to its 200 day MA. The last three sentiment and
trend extremes occurred in August 2020, January 2020 and January 2018.
S&P500 with 200 day MA and 10% premium discount to 200 day MA
10% premium to 200 DMA
200 DMA
10% discount to 200 DMA
S&P500 DSI
The Nasdaq 100 produces similar short-term negative returns when the Nasdaq
100 DSI posted readings above 90% and with the Nasdaq 100 10% above its 200-
day MA.
laurence.balanco@clsa.com page 4
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Combination of sentiment and trend extreme for the Nasdaq 100

Nasdaq 100 with 200 day MA and 10% premium discount to 200 day
MA

10% premium to 200 DMA

200 DMA

10% discount to 200 DMA

Nasdaq 100 DSI

In conclusion we find the DSI a better sentiment indicator for a contrarian call on
DSI has a better track markets than the AAII bull/bear spread. But even with the DSI we would look for
record than the AAII further evidence of vulnerability in the market by looking for sentiment readings of
bull/bear spread January over 90% bulls coincide with the market trading at a 10%+ premium to its 200-day
2018
MA. Currently both the S&P500 and Nasdaq 100’s DSI readings remain below 90%
bulls currently at 79% and 76% bulls, respectively. In addition to the strong breadth
readings which we highlighted in last week’s note (Price Action (Sugar rush) - 19
November 2020) we would conclude that the market is in a strongly trending phase
where consensus (bullish sentiment) is right rather than acting as a contrarian sell
signal. We would look for the S&P500 or Nasdaq 100 DSI readings to post readings
of 90%+ in combination with the index trading at a 10% premium to its 200-day
MA before taking profit and tightening stop-levels. Until then we would continue
to give the benefit of doubt to the S&P500s breakout from the September-
November consolidation pattern which supports further strength over year end into
2021 with the breakout support an upside target of 3,900-4,000.

27 November 2020 laurence.balanco@clsa.com page 5

 Price Action
Global

S&P500 returns post breadth reading of 89% of stock trading above their respective 200-day MA

S&P500

% stocks above 200-day MA

27 November 2020 laurence.balanco@clsa.com page 6

 Price Action
Global

Value vs Growth: Are we there yet?

Under a simple mean
reversion trade there is
another 3.6% to 10% upside
for value vs growth
We have viewed the value/growth set-up as a mean reversion trade as the value vs
growth ratio in a number of global markets had been trading at their biggest
discounts to their respective 200-DMA since 2000 (Price Action (Rubber band
effect) - 9 July 2020). Under this simple mean reversion trade there is still another
3.6% to 10% of value outperformance.

Since the steep discount in July when the ratio of the MSCI World Value vs growth
3.6% upside to the 200-day
traded at the 19.94% we have seen the ratio complete a four month basing pattern
MA which support further relative outperformance of value versus growth. There is at
least another 3.6% upside before the ratio tags initial resistance provided by the
200-day MA.
MSCI World Value v Growth and its premium/discount to its 200 DMA

Value v growth

% above below the 200-day MA

The chart above also highlights the longer-term trend showing the continual
underperformance of value vs growth since 1996 (note from February 2000 to
January 2007 markets where in a value outperformance cycle). Since the 2007
Since the 2007 relative relative peak in the ratio we have seen a number of mean reversion trades of the
peak in the value vs growth ratio trading back to its 200-day MA or marginally above it. Note the biggest
ratio there have been a
premium the ratio traded relative to its 200-day MA was recorded in December
number of mean reversion
trades 2016 (6.25% premium). From a pure trend behavior perspective we would need to
see a change in the mean reversion trade parameters seen over the past decade to
signal a structural change in this trend. What we mean by this is that the ratio would
Biggest premium to the have to at least trade at a more than 6.25% premium to its 200-day MA to signal a
200-day MA over the past change in the down trending characteristics seen in the ratio over the past decade.
decade was seen in
This is one signal we would look out for to add evidence of a structural trend
December 2016 at 6.25%
change in favour of value rather than being another simple mean reversion trade.
While we clearly need further evidence to increase the probability of a structural
change in the value vs growth relationship, the current set ups suggests at least

27 November 2020 laurence.balanco@clsa.com page 7

 Price Action
Global

another 3.6% to 10% outperformance by value over growth just to remain within
the trend characteristics seen over the past decade.

As we have highlighted previously, seasonals are also supportive of the laggards

(dominated by value) outperforming into year end. This behavior can be observed
in the region and US by subdividing stocks into quintiles sorted by simple 12-month
Seasonal rotation is rate-of-change where quintile 1 (Q1) represents stocks with the best 12-month
supportive of value into returns (high momentum) and quintile 5 (Q5) stocks with the worst 12-month
year end returns (low momentum). Since 2005 low momentum (Q5) returns on average have
outperformed high momentum (Q1) stocks in November and December by 1.4%
for the regional benchmark. For the S&P500 low momentum (Q5) stocks
outperform high momentum stocks by 1.80% over November and December (Price
Action (Every dog has its day) - 22 October 2020).
Momentum seasonals for the S&P500 and MSCI Asia Pacific ex Japan 2005

The table above displays the seasonal returns of the S&P500 The table above displays the seasonal returns of the MSCI Asia ex
quintiles since 2005 Japan quintiles since 2005

27 November 2020 laurence.balanco@clsa.com page 8


Test of trend support
Gold targeting long-term trend support
Gold sentiment has dropped
form 92% bulls in August to
22% bulls
27 November 2020
Price Action
Global
Gold – Shot-term weakness, long-term uptrend
The daily chart of gold features this week’s break of the shelf of support provided
by the September/November lows at the US$1,843-1,848 area. This weakness
extends the corrective price action off the 6 August peak and opens the door for a
test of next chart support provided by the 200-day MA and April/May highs at the
US$1,775-1,794 area. Below this confluence of support lies the lower boundary of
the 2019-2020 uptrend channel at the $1,723-1,725 area.
This corrective price action since the August highs has seen gold’s Daily Sentiment
Index (DSI) drop from excessively bullish reading of 92% down to the current
reading of 22%. The bullish extremes have been unwound with this corrective
action.
Gold’s bullish sentiment unwound
laurence.balanco@clsa.com page 9
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Risk of forced selling from CFTC data however shows that large speculators/HF’s are still net long at over 45%
large speculators of total opening interest in the ‘crowded’ net long zone. This does increase the risk
of potential overshooting the US$1,775-1,794 support zone as some of the
excessive long positions are forced to close.

Speculators still net long at over 40% of total open interest

The weekly chart features
support at the US$1,753-
1,775 area
From a long-term perspective the weekly chart still features the uptrend channel
which has unfolded over the past 24-months post the breakout from the 2013-
2019 basing pattern. This base breakout still supports an ultimate upside target of
US$2,200. The weekly chart provides support at the US$1,753-1,775 area which
includes the 40-week MA and overlaps with the support zones cited on the daily
chart. While there is clearly short-term risk as long as gold holds above the weekly
support at US$1,753-1,755 support the benefit of doubt should be given to the
long-term uptrend and US$2,200 upside target.

Golds weekly trend post the 2013-2019 base breakout

27 November 2020 laurence.balanco@clsa.com page 10


Regional gold equities too have broken below key short-term support levels and
look set to fall further than the expected short-term weakness in the underlying
metal.
Key regional gold stocks
Newcreast Mining (NCM AU) – After testing resistance provided by
the 2019 highs in early August the stock has rolled over breaking
below its 50-day MA in August and recently its flattening 200-day
MA. This sets the stock up for a test of next support at A$25.00-
25.15 provided by the May lows. Below the May lows next chart
support is at the A$20.70-21.06. We would look for signs of a buying
opportunity in the A$20.70 to A$25.15 zone.
Northern Star (NST AU) – This week’s break below A$12.82 triggers
the bearish implications of the July/October double top pattern which
implies a downside target of A$9.52 which sits just above chart
support provided by the November 2019 and March lows at the
A$8.85-8.95 area. The A$8.85 to A$9.52 zone should hold and
provide a potential buying opportunity.
27 November 2020 laurence.balanco@clsa.com
Price Action
Global
Sarcen (SAR AU) – This week’s break below the 200-day MA as well
as the late September lows triggers the bearish implication of the
July-November double top pattern. This break down puts the stock
back in the August 2019 – May 2020 trading range and provides a
downside target of A$3.47. Note the lower boundary of the cited
range provides support at the A$2.81-2.82 area. A move down to the
A$2.81 to A$3.47 zone as a buying opportunity.
Evolution Mining (EVN AU) - The break below A$5.11-5.27 support
provided by the lower boundary of the May-November trading range
projects a downside target of A$4.00 with next chart support at the
A$3.28-3.44. The A$3.28 to A$4.00 zone is expected to hold and
maintain the stocks long-term uptrend.
page 11

Brent oil’s price action since
July 2008 is dominated by 3
declines of over 75%
forming a long-term
downtrend channel
Brent oil – Behaviour within the long-term downtrend channel
Since the initial recovery
phase off the April low
Brent oil has bene range
bound between US$35.74-
36.68 and US$46.20-50.36
27 November 2020
Price Action
Global
Brent oil – Three phases
The weekly chart of Brent oil features the long-term downtrend that has unfolded
off the July 2018 highs. This downtrend channel features three major decline of
70%+ (Jul-Dec 2008 75%, Jun 2014 – Jan 2016 76% and Oct 2018 – Apr 2020
81%). Interestingly, the rebounds that followed the December 2008 and January
2016 lows broke down into three phase – first, the initial snap back from the more
than 75% decline, this was then followed by a period of ranging price action for
over 12-months before the third phase is formed with a thrust out of the ranging
pattern which then morphed into a higher trading range before the long-term
downtrend resumed.
Focusing on price action off the April low we have seen the typical phase one
snapback rally which has been followed by the phase 2 trading range. This range
currently offers support at the US$35.74-36.68 area (April/May highs and the
June/November lows) and resistance at US$46.20-50.36 (August highs and
December 2018 lows). This month’s price surge now has price action testing the
upper boundary of the cited range with price action pushing well into the
US$46.20-50.36 resistance zone. This resistance zone coupled with the extended
daily momentum reading (above 70) suggests that Brent oil is likely to remain
capped with further whipsaw action within the US$35.74-36.68 to US$46.20-
50.36 trading range.
laurence.balanco@clsa.com page 12
 Price Action
Global

Should Brent oil manage to break above the US$46.20-50.36 resistance area it
would put price action back into the October 2018-March 2020 trading range
which formed between US$50.36-55.68 and US$75.6-86.74. If it follows the
behaviour characteristic of the recovery off the 2008 and 2016 lows we likely to
see Brent oil trapped between US$35.74-36.68 and US$46.20-50.36 into 1Q21
before breaking into a higher range.

Brent oil – Testing the top of the range

Positioning and sentiment

CFTC net position in ICE Brent futures as a % of total open interest - Daily Sentiment (DSI) Light crude – While we do not have access to
– Large speculators/HFS are marginal new long at 6.3% of total open Brent oil sentiment we do have sentiment for Light crude with has
interest which is well below the crowded net long zone of over 11%. improved with this month’s rally to sit at 60% bulls. Like position still
below the extreme sentiment reading of 90% bulls.

27 November 2020 laurence.balanco@clsa.com page 13


Can copper recorded a
sustained break above
US$331.50-332.20
Copper cap at the $331.50-332.20 area
Can copper record a
sustained break above
US$331.50-332.20
27 November 2020
Price Action
Global
Copper – Take some profits
CMX Copper’s rally off the March low now has now tagged and is attempting to
clear resistance provided by the late 2017/early 2018 highs at the US$331.50-
332.20 area. The issue we have for a sustained break above this resistance at
US$331.50-332.20 is the weekly chart see the 14-week RSI (momentum) failing to
confirm this week’s high.
This same price/momentum divergence has been building on the daily chat since
September. This sign of non-conformation over both time intervals is a sign that
Coppers uptrend is mature and becoming vulnerable to a correction/consolidation
over the coming weeks. Note the daily and weekly charts feature a similar price
momentum divergence into the December 2017 highs and the weekly chart also
highlights the price/momentum divergence into the February 2011 highs. The
divergence into the December 2017 high saw Copper move into a six-month
consolidation pattern between US$292.05-294.60 and US$331.50-332.20.
laurence.balanco@clsa.com page 14
 Price Action
Global

Copper daily

In addition to this sign of slowing upside momentum we have Copper’s Daily

85% bulls, in the bullish Sentiment Index up in the bullish extremes zone with a reading at 85% bulls. This
extreme zone for copper matches the extremes seen matching the sentiment extremes seen into the July
highs that saw copper correct 6-7% off the US$28.65-299.55 resistance zone. Prior
to that copper sentiment reached the 85% bull threshold into the late 2017/early
2018 highs.

Bullish extremes

27 November 2020 laurence.balanco@clsa.com page 15


Large speculators/HFs net
long at 29% of total open
interest – in the ‘crowded’
long zone
Speculators crowded net long in CMX Copper futures
We recommend taking
profit in anticipation of a
period of ranging between
US$292.05-294.60 and
US$331.50-332.20
27 November 2020
Price Action
Global
A final point is the CFTC data that show large speculators/HF are net long CMX
Copper futures at 29.4%, the largest net long position since May 2005. Also note
over the past 17 years, readings above 20% have typically been associated with
tactical peaks and in some case major peaks for the metal – April 2011, December
2016, and January/June 2018. The October 2003 and March 2005 net long
positions as a percentage of total open interest readings of 44% and 30% respective
were the exceptions.
In conclusions the formation of slowing upside momentum in the form of a
price/momentum divergence on both the daily and weekly charts, coupled with
bullish sentiment extremes as well as crowded net long positions in CMX Copper
futures suggests that a conclusive break above the US$331.50-332.20 is unlikely
over the coming weeks. As such we recommend taking some profit in anticipation
of a period of ranging price action between US$292.05-294.60 and US$331.50-
332.20.
Stockwise we feature Oz Minerals as a take profit candidate.
laurence.balanco@clsa.com page 16
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Global

OZ minerals (OZL AU)

Oz minerals, after meeting and

surpassing the upside objective of
A$15.20-15.30 following the
breakout from the 2018-2020
trading range, is now showing signs
of slowing upside momentum as the
daily momentum indicator has failed
to confirm the October highs. This
sign of slowing upside momentum
coupled with resistance provided by
the 23 October high at A$16.50
offers an attractive risk/reward
selling opportunity in anticipation of
the stock at best spending a period of
time consolidating between A$14.40-
14.50 and A$16.40-16.50

What about the US dollar?

Currently in a weak trend
correlation environment
between the US dollar and
commodities
Before we take a look as the price action of the US dollar index we would like to
reiterate the weakening relationship between the US dollar and commodities
(represented by the Continuous Commodity index). Since 1970 there have been
two distinct periods of negative trend correlation between the US dollar and
commodities; 1979 to 1987 and 2003 to 2013. The periods of 1970-1979, 1988-
2002 and 2013-to-date have seen associated with a very weak negative correlation
and on occasions a mildly positive correlation. The point here is we are currently
within a weak trend correlation environment between the US dollar and
commodities and as such the emphasis should be place on individual currency and
commodity markets rather than relying on the negative trend correlation seen
between 2003 and 2013.

Rolling 12-month correlation between the Continuous Commodity index and the US dollar index

27 November 2020 laurence.balanco@clsa.com page 17


The 2017/2020 double top
resistance provides the
topping profile of the US
dollar seven year bull
market off the 2011 lows
US dollar index: Topping phase of the seven-year cycle
27 November 2020
Price Action
Global
The key long-term cycles we have been tracking on the US dollar index (DXY)
outlines the historic seven year rising cycle represented by the 1978-1985 advance
which recorded a gain of 68% and the 1995-2002 uptrend which returned 41%.
The 2011 to January 2017 advance for the DXY of 42% has fulfilled the objective
of the typical seven-year cycle. The double-top pattern provided by the 2017/2020
highs does now provide the topping profile for the DXY’s advance off the 2011
lows. So on a long-term basis the DXY should continue to work its way lower over
the coming years ultimately breaking below the January 2018 lows at the 88-89
area to conclude the cited double top.
The short-term action displayed on the daily chart features the DXY currently
trading in a short-term trading range between 91.90-92.00 and 94.66-95.11. This
trading range has formed below old support, now resistance provided by the
January 2019/March 2020 lows as well as the underside of trend support which
originated off the 2011 lows. As long as price action remains below the 94.66-
95.11 resistance zone the risk remains to the downside and the continuation of the
decline off the March highs. A break below 91.90-92.00 would open the door for
further weakness back towards the 88.25-88.43 support zone and breakdown level
of the 2017-2020 double top pattern which from the long-term perspective
represents to top of the seven-year US dollar bull market detailed earlier. Note a
breakdown from the cited double top would provide an ultimate downside target
of 75.80-76.00 over the coming years.
laurence.balanco@clsa.com page 18
 Price Action
Global

US dollar index: Topping phase of the seven-year cycle

Trendline support, now resistance

drawn off the 2011

27 November 2020 laurence.balanco@clsa.com page 19

 Price Action
Global

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Companies mentioned
Evolution Mining (EVN AU - A$5.00 - U-PF)
Newcrest Mining (NCM AU - A$26.90 - U-PF)
Northern Star (NST AU - A$12.89 - U-PF)
OZ Minerals (OZL AU - A$16.13 - O-PF)
Sarsen (N-R)

The above shows our fundamental ratings on these stocks.

Analyst certification
The analyst(s) of this report hereby certify that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my/our
own personal views about the securities and/or the issuers and that no part of my/our compensation was, is, or will
be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation or views contained in this research report.

Important disclosures
Recommendation history of Northern Star Resources Ltd NST AU

Date Rec Target Date Rec Target

27 Oct 2020 U-PF 15.15 20 Aug 2020 U-PF 15.24*
07 Oct 2020 U-PF 15.95 30 Jul 2020 U-PF 16.03*
Source: CLSA; * Adjusted for corporate action

27 November 2020 laurence.balanco@clsa.com page 20

 Price Action
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Recommendation history of Newcrest Mining Ltd NCM AU

Date Rec Target Date Rec Target

30 Oct 2020 U-PF 31.50 15 Oct 2018 O-PF 21.90
18 Aug 2020 U-PF 35.50 23 Aug 2018 U-PF 20.40
26 Jul 2020 O-PF 37.75 09 Aug 2018 U-PF 21.17
19 Jun 2020 O-PF 33.85 26 Jul 2018 U-PF 21.20
10 Jul 2019 Dropped Coverage 11 Jul 2018 SELL 20.90
01 May 2019 O-PF 27.20 26 Apr 2018 U-PF 20.81
15 Apr 2019 O-PF 27.10 11 Apr 2018 U-PF 20.35
14 Feb 2019 O-PF 26.80 20 Mar 2018 SELL 18.91
30 Jan 2019 O-PF 26.25 16 Feb 2018 SELL 19.65
16 Jan 2019 O-PF 25.60 31 Jan 2018 SELL 19.70
31 Oct 2018 O-PF 22.90 13 Jan 2018 SELL 19.50
24 Oct 2018 O-PF 22.30
Source: CLSA

27 November 2020 laurence.balanco@clsa.com page 21

 Price Action
Global

Recommendation history of OZ Minerals Ltd OZL AU

Date Rec Target Date Rec Target

17 Nov 2020 O-PF 17.40 16 Jan 2019 O-PF 10.10
19 Aug 2020 O-PF 16.65 17 Oct 2018 O-PF 10.40
22 Jul 2020 O-PF 14.95 15 Oct 2018 O-PF 10.30
24 Jun 2020 O-PF 12.05 22 Aug 2018 O-PF 10.10
21 Apr 2020 BUY 10.55 11 Apr 2018 O-PF 10.20
10 Jul 2019 Dropped Coverage 12 Mar 2018 O-PF 10.00
14 Apr 2019 SELL 8.80 17 Jan 2018 U-PF 9.20
28 Feb 2019 SELL 9.00 13 Jan 2018 U-PF 8.70
Source: CLSA

Recommendation history of Evolution Mining Ltd EVN AU

Date Rec Target Date Rec Target

28 Oct 2020 U-PF 5.75 24 Jul 2020 SELL 5.55
14 Aug 2020 U-PF 5.90 29 Jun 2020 O-PF 5.95
Source: CLSA

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