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Springer Texts in Business and Economics

Henrik Gudmundsson
Ralph P. Hall
Greg Marsden
Josias Zietsman

Sustainable
Transportation
Indicators, Frameworks,
and Performance Management
Springer Texts in Business and Economics
More information about this series at
http://www.springer.com/series/10099
Henrik Gudmundsson • Ralph P. Hall •
Greg Marsden • Josias Zietsman

Sustainable
Transportation
Indicators, Frameworks,
and Performance Management
Henrik Gudmundsson Ralph P. Hall
Department of Transport School of Public and International Affairs
Technical University of Denmark Virginia Tech
Kgs. Lyngby Blacksburg
Denmark Virginia
USA

Greg Marsden Josias Zietsman


Institute for Transport Studies Texas A&M University System
University of Leeds Texas A&M Transportation Institute
Leeds College Station
UK Texas
USA

Co-publication by Springer-Verlag, Heidelberg Germany


and Samfundslitteratur, Frederiksberg Denmark.
The first edition has to be published at the same time, with
the same title, and by the same authors.

This edition is for countries outside of Scandinavia.


Please order the book from Springer Verlag: www.springer.com

For orders from Scandinavia please order the book from


Samfundslitteratur Press: www.samfundslitteratur.dk

ISSN 2192-4333 ISSN 2192-4341 (electronic)


Springer Texts in Business and Economics
ISBN 978-3-662-46923-1 ISBN 978-3-662-46924-8 (eBook)
DOI 10.1007/978-3-662-46924-8

Library of Congress Control Number: 2015939346

Springer Heidelberg New York Dordrecht London


# Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2016
This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of
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(www.springer.com)
Preface

This book is the result of 6 years of collaboration between four scholars from leading
universities in Europe and North America. It is based on decades of collective
experience in the areas of sustainable development and sustainable transportation,
focused on research, teaching, and practice. The book’s development was driven by
the need for a comprehensive text for students, academics, and practitioners inter-
ested in the broad area of sustainable transportation.
The book provides a rich text for advanced undergraduate and graduate students,
academics, researchers, and transportation practitioners. It will provide readers with
a deep understanding of the basic concepts of sustainability as well as a coherent
framework for how to apply the concepts consistently within the context of
transportation planning, management, and decision-making.
The book contains 12 chapters and is organized into two main parts connecting
theory and methodology to practical examples of sustainable transportation indica-
tor systems followed by our concluding reflections. It is intended to be both a
valuable reference on the subject and a source of ideas for how to approach the
development of sustainable transportation indicator systems. The book is grounded
in the belief that there is no one right way to develop such a system; however, there
is a set of ideas and tools that should be applied to ensure that any system developed
is informed by sustainability principles, is effective, and is used by all participants
and stakeholders.
In the academic realm, the book is designed for use in courses involving the
application of sustainability to decision-making in transportation. The structure of the
chapters in Part I (Chaps. 2–7) was designed from a pedagogical/learning perspective.
Each chapter builds on the previous set of ideas to enable students to develop a broad
and interconnected understanding of the material and how it can be applied in a real-
world setting. Where relevant, the text provides key terms, important references, and
discussion questions to facilitate in-class discussions. The book can also be used in a
range of existing courses on transportation planning, policy analysis, or performance
management in general.
In the practitioner realm, the book will support planners, managers, consultants,
and other professionals who are challenged with transitioning their transportation
systems toward sustainability. It offers a frame of reference on what sustainability is
and how a measurement system can be developed to make informed decisions. It

v
vi Preface

provides clear guidance on what we should measure, how we should measure, and
what we should report. We have endeavored to make the text accessible, while not
undermining the importance of using consistent and accurate terminology throughout.
We hope to empower the reader with the correct terminology to facilitate effective
communication. The descriptions, examples, and case studies in Part II of the book
(Chaps. 8–11) in particular are intended to enable practitioners to develop sustainable
transportation performance measurement systems that are well conceived and, hence,
valuable to their organization.
In this book, we show that transportation plays a key role in addressing the broader
topic of sustainability, while at the same time recognizing that transportation has to
become more sustainable to make progress toward sustainable development. The
message that there are multiple ways to implement a sustainable transportation
performance measurement system may frustrate some who are looking for an “off-
the-shelf” answer. Similar to sustainable development, moving toward sustainable
transportation is a process of change that thrives when supported by a flexible and
learning-oriented approach. We hope that the performance measurement frameworks
and best practices discussed in this book provide useful starting points for those
looking to embark on transforming their transportation systems toward sustainability.
We provide our reflections on what we have learnt in the conclusion of the book
(Chap. 12). Our intention is to continue developing and sharing ideas through a
website associated with the book at https://sustransindicators.com/ and we would
encourage readers to engage with us in this enterprise.

Kgs. Lyngby, Denmark Henrik Gudmundsson


Blacksburg, VA Ralph P. Hall
Leeds, UK Greg Marsden
College Station, TX Josias Zietsman
Acknowledgments

The preparation of this book would not have been possible without the financial
support we received from the 2010 Lærebogsprisen Award. We would like to thank
the publisher Samfundslitteratur in Denmark for these funds that enabled the team
to meet and work together on the structure and content of this book over the past
several years.
We would also like to thank Tara Ramani for coauthoring Chap. 6 and for
general writing support, as well as Erin Puckett and Amanda McGee for providing
research support.
We are indebted to the coauthors of the case studies for providing invaluable
local information and reviewing our draft material and answering numerous
questions—Daisuke Fukuda (Tokyo Institute of Technology) and Paul Krekeler
and Debra Nelson (New York State Department of Transportation).
We would also like to thank Terry Hall and Gary Lobaugh for editorial assis-
tance and John Henry for support with the graphics.
We thank our respective institutions (Technical University of Denmark, Univer-
sity of Leeds, Virginia Tech, and the Texas A&M Transportation Institute) for
enabling us to enrich this text through our teaching and research activities. We
would also like to thank our students for the feedback they provided on early drafts
of this text. We believe the flow of the book and delivery of information has been
greatly improved as a result of their insights.
We also wish to thank our numerous friends and colleagues in the sustainable
transportation research community for their work, ideas, and encouragement. While
not directly involved in the writing of this book, we have benefited significantly
from their intellectual contributions that continue to shape and advance the fields of
sustainable transportation and performance assessment.
Finally, we owe a great debt of thanks to all of our families who have supported
us through the visits, exchanges, long nights, and weekends which have made this
book possible.

vii
ThiS is a FM Blank Page
Contents

1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
1.1 The Structure of the Book . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9

Part I Conceptual Foundations


2 Sustainable Development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
2.1 Purpose and Content . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
2.2 The Emergence of Sustainable Development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
2.2.1 The Formation of Environmental Movements . . . . . . . 16
2.2.2 The 1972 Stockholm Conference . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
2.2.3 The 1980 World Conservation Strategy . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
2.2.4 The 1982 Nairobi Meeting . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
2.2.5 The World Commission on Environment and
Development: Our Common Future . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
2.2.6 The 1992 United Nations Conference on Environment
and Development: The Rio Summit . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
2.2.7 The 2002 Johannesburg Summit . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
2.2.8 The 2012 United Nations Conference on Sustainable
Development (Rio+20) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
2.2.9 The Post-2015 Agenda . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28
2.3 Conceptualizing Sustainable Development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32
2.4 Measuring Sustainable Development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38
2.5 The Importance of a Holistic and Integrative Approach
to Sustainable Development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40
2.6 Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44
3 Planning for Transportation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51
3.1 Purpose and Content . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51
3.2 Mobility and Travel Demand . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52
3.3 The Characteristics of Transportation Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57
3.3.1 Transportation as Part of an Economic System . . . . . . 59

ix
x Contents

3.3.2 Transportation as an Open System with Inputs


and Outputs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60
3.3.3 Transportation as a Socio-technical System . . . . . . . . . 61
3.3.4 Transportation as an Integrated System . . . . . . . . . . . . 63
3.3.5 Transportation in a Systems Hierarchy . . . . . . . . . . . . 64
3.3.6 Systems Discussion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65
3.4 Impacts of Transportation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66
3.4.1 Environmental . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67
3.4.2 Social . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69
3.4.3 Economic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71
3.5 Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75
4 Transportation and Sustainability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81
4.1 Purpose and Content . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81
4.2 The Emergence of Sustainable Transportation . . . . . . . . . . . . . 82
4.2.1 From Stockholm (1972) to Rio (1992) . . . . . . . . . . . . . 82
4.2.2 The Commission of the European Communities’
1992 Green Paper . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85
4.2.3 The President’s Council on Sustainable Development
(1993–1999) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86
4.2.4 International Sustainable Transportation Initiatives
(1995–2001) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90
4.2.5 Rio+20 and the Post-2015 Agenda . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93
4.2.6 The Dimensions of Sustainability Applied
to Transportation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97
4.3 Holistic and Sector-Specific Definitions of Sustainable
Transportation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100
4.4 Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 106
5 Governance and Decision-Making in Transportation . . . . . . . . . . . 111
5.1 Purpose and Content . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111
5.2 Governance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 112
5.3 The Role of Governance in Transportation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113
5.4 Institutional Structures in Transportation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 116
5.4.1 Case Study: The English Multimodal Studies . . . . . . . 118
5.5 Key Elements in Transportation Decision-Making Processes . . . 121
5.5.1 Information and Governance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 122
5.5.2 Decision-Making Domains . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 124
5.5.3 Planning Domain . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 125
5.5.4 Delivery Domain . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 130
5.6 Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 132
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 133
Contents xi

6 Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 137
6.1 Purpose and Content . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 137
6.2 What Is an Indicator? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 138
6.2.1 Terminology and Definitions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 138
6.2.2 Why Are Indicators Needed? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 141
6.2.3 What to Indicate? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 141
6.2.4 Disciplinary Approaches to Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . 142
6.3 Indicators for Sustainability and Sustainable Transportation . . . 144
6.4 Types of Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 146
6.4.1 Indicator Typology: Based on Dimension . . . . . . . . . . 146
6.4.2 Indicator Typology: Based on Message and Purpose . . . 147
6.4.3 Indicator Typology: Based on Timeframe
and Position . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 150
6.4.4 Indicator Typology: Based on an Organizational
Production Process . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 151
6.5 Developing and Selecting Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 152
6.5.1 Key Issues in Developing and Selecting Indicators . . . 152
6.5.2 Criteria for Developing and Selecting Appropriate
Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 154
6.5.3 “SMART” Criteria for Goals . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 159
6.6 Application of Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 160
6.7 Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 164
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 167
7 Frameworks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 171
7.1 Purpose and Content . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 171
7.2 Introduction to Frameworks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 172
7.3 Drivers of Frameworks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 174
7.4 Overarching Frameworks Relevant to Transportation and
Sustainability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 177
7.4.1 Transportation Appraisal Frameworks . . . . . . . . . . . . . 177
7.4.2 Environmental Policy Review and Reporting . . . . . . . . 180
7.4.3 Sustainability Assessment Frameworks . . . . . . . . . . . . 183
7.4.4 Performance Management Frameworks . . . . . . . . . . . . 187
7.4.5 Framing Sustainability and Performance Together: An
Example . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 189
7.5 Toward Sustainable Transportation Frameworks . . . . . . . . . . . . 192
7.6 Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 197
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 198

Part II Case Studies


8 European Union Transport White Paper . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 209
8.1 Background . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 209
8.2 Framework . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 213
xii Contents

8.3 Indicators Used . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 215


8.4 Indicator Applications . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 220
8.4.1 Describe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 220
8.4.2 Review . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 220
8.4.3 Diagnose . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 222
8.4.4 Forecast . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 222
8.4.5 Decide . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 225
8.5 Discussion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 226
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 230
9 High-Speed Rail in England . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 233
9.1 Background . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 235
9.2 Framework . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 237
9.3 Indicators Used in the Appraisal of Sustainability . . . . . . . . . . . 242
9.4 Indicator Applications . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 244
9.4.1 Describe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 244
9.4.2 Forecast . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 244
9.4.3 Review . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 245
9.4.4 Diagnose . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 245
9.4.5 Decide . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 245
9.4.6 Other Applications . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 246
9.5 Discussion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 247
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 250
10 New York’s GreenLITES Rating Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 251
10.1 Background . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 251
10.1.1 New York State’s Environmental Initiative . . . . . . . . . 253
10.1.2 From Environmental Stewardship to Sustainability . . . 255
10.2 Frameworks and Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 257
10.2.1 The GreenLITES Initiative . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 257
10.2.2 Expanding the GreenLITES Program . . . . . . . . . . . . . 261
10.2.3 Leveraging Data to Champion Change
with NYSDOT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 269
10.3 Indicator Applications . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 270
10.3.1 Learn . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 270
10.3.2 Decide . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 271
10.3.3 Forecast . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 272
10.3.4 Communicate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 273
10.4 Discussion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 273
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 275
11 Japan’s “Eco-Model City” Program . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 277
11.1 Background . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 277
11.2 Framework for Using Indicators in the EMC Program . . . . . . . 283
Contents xiii

11.3 Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 285


11.3.1 A: Implementation of Efforts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 285
11.3.2 B: Greenhouse Gas Emissions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 286
11.3.3 E: Spread and Extension of Ideas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 287
11.4 Indicator Applications . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 289
11.4.1 Review . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 289
11.4.2 Account . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 289
11.4.3 Diagnose . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 290
11.4.4 Learn . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 291
11.5 Discussion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 292
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 294
12 Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 297
12.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 297
12.2 Transportation and Sustainability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 298
12.3 Framing and Measurement . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 300
12.4 Decision-Making . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 300
12.5 Lessons from the Case Studies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 301
12.6 Who Should Drive Change? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 302
12.7 Looking Ahead . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 303
Reference . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 304
Introduction
1

Sustainability has become an overarching concern for transportation policy and


planning around the world. Like sustainable development, the concept of sustain-
able transportation is broadly defined, which permits policies and practices to be
labeled as “sustainable” while pursuing business-as-usual approaches. Thus, there
is a pressing need to better integrate and apply sustainability principles to transpor-
tation. Performance measurement frameworks offer an effective way to do this.
Over the past two decades, much effort has been made on understanding and
applying the concept of sustainable development to transportation.1 In this regard,
there is a wealth of research and experience that we can learn from. Yet, substantive
progress on realizing more sustainable forms of transportation remains limited. In
many regions, the negative impacts from transportation are likely to worsen in the
face of increasing demand for mobility and infrastructure (Dulca 2013; AfDB
et al. 2012). For example, it is estimated that around 25 million paved road
lane kilometers and 335,000 rail track kilometers will be needed globally by 2050
in response to growth in passenger and freight travel, primarily in emerging
economies (Dulca 2013). To put this in perspective, this would be a 60 % increase
in the combined length of all road and railway networks around the world (ibid.).
These predictions are accompanied by an expected upward trend in oil consumption
in 2035, driven primarily by demand in China and India, with oil consumption
declining in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)
countries (IEA 2013b).
The demands for higher levels of mobility and infrastructure expansion reflect
that transportation delivers beneficial and often essential services to local as well as
global economies. In many areas of the world, investing in better transportation

1
For example, see Replogle (1991), Black (1996, 2010), Gudmundsson and Hojer (1996), Button
and Nijkamp (1997), UKRTSD (1996), Greene and Wegener (1997), Whitelegg (1997), Black and
Nijkamp (2002), Hoogma et al. (2002), Steg and Gifford (2005), RAE (2005), Banister (2005),
Hall (2006), Barrella et al. (2010), Amekudzi et al. (2011), Zietsman et al. (2011), Holden
et al. (2013), and Booz Allen Hamilton (2014).

# Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2016 1


H. Gudmundsson et al., Sustainable Transportation, Springer Texts in Business and
Economics, DOI 10.1007/978-3-662-46924-8_1
2 1 Introduction

systems to move people and freight is seen as one of the most effective ways to
improve economic well-being and performance.2 However, the negative impacts of
adding additional passengers and traffic to existing transportation systems and/or
expanding these systems could begin to undermine the benefits realized from this
growth. The key focus of most existing methods used for transportation planning
and decision-making is to quantify the net balance of economic benefits. We argue
in this book that there is a pressing need to expand the scope and scale of
transportation decision support to encompass the full vision of sustainable develop-
ment of which net present economic benefits are only one element.
In terms of the negative impacts of transportation, the sector’s reliance on oil has
long been a major indicator of its unsustainability, although some modest inroads in
reducing fuel consumption are beginning to be made through the sale of hybrid,
plug-in hybrid, and all-electric vehicles. In 2011, the concentration of carbon
dioxide in the atmosphere reached 391 ppm (parts per million), an increase of
40 % above pre-industrial levels and close to the 400 ppm level that is predicted to
increase the Earth’s global average surface temperature by 2  C (3.6  F) (IPCC
2013). That same year, over 31,000 million tonnes of CO2 were emitted from fuel
combustion, 22 % of which came from the transportation sector, with 17 %
attributed to road transportation (IEA 2013a). Similarly, transportation also remains
a major contributor to the emissions of other air pollutants including diesel particu-
late matter, hydrocarbons, and oxides of nitrogen. Within the context of increasing
global demand for transportation infrastructure and services, the transportation
sector will come under growing scrutiny as efforts to address climate change and
other global and national environmental concerns intensify.
Beyond climate change, the transportation sector is also responsible for a wide
range of impacts that affect ecosystem integrity and biological diversity and
directly affect human health and well-being. The growing field of “road ecology”
provides a good example of the concerns that researchers (across a wide range of
disciplines) have with the physical, chemical, and noise impacts of the road network
and traffic on vegetation, wildlife, aquatic systems, etc. (Forman et al. 2003; van der
Ree et al. 2011). In terms of human health, mobile source air toxics—such as
benzene, 1,3-butadiene, formaldehyde, acetaldehyde, acrolein, polycyclic organic
matter (POM), naphthalene, and diesel particulate matter—remain closely moni-
tored and regulated due to the potential health risks they pose (Carr et al. 2007;
Shrouds 2009; Milojevic et al. 2014). It is estimated that road traffic accidents typi-
cally cost between 1 and 2 % of GDP for both developed and developing countries
(WHO 2004, 2013). The total global cost of accidents was estimated in 2000 to be
almost US$518 billion per year. Finally, the design and layout of transportation
infrastructure can directly shape the livability and quality of neighborhoods
(Wheeler 2013).

2
This is especially the case in emerging economies where the development of rural roads is
considered to be essential for connectivity and economic development (Faiz 2012).
1 Introduction 3

As transportation systems continue to develop and expand across the world,


these types of environmental and social impacts are likely to remain or in some
cases, such as climate change, become an increasingly important driver of the need
for sustainable development. At the 2012 Rio+20 conference, the subject of sus-
tainable transportation was highlighted as central to sustainable development
(UN 2012), and many nations, regions (such as the European Union3), and multi-
lateral development banks are responding to this call for action—see, for example,
the “Commitment to Sustainable Transport” made by eight development banks
(AfDB et al. 2012, 2013). Such activities are increasing the global demand for
professionals who are well-equipped to manage the transition toward more sustain-
able transportation systems.
The science (and social science) of understanding sustainable development
issues is well documented and continues to evolve (Black 2010; Cox 2010; Alonso
et al. 2015). This has been matched by neither progress in policy making nor in how
to approach policy making to tackle such cross-cutting problems. A goal of this
book, therefore, is to provide, through theory and case study analysis, some generic
principles to advance the capability of the transportation profession to promote
sustainable development, while the debate on what this means in different contexts
continues to unfold. It also asks questions that highlight the types of research that
academics might do to improve decision-support tools and techniques.
This book focuses on the role that indicators and performance measurement
frameworks (or systems) have in making sustainability count for decision-makers,
planners, operators, and other stakeholders within and beyond the field of transpor-
tation. It does so because “what is measured is what matters.” This often used
statement hides some very important yet under-discussed issues relating to the
politics and practice of decision-making. What gets measured and how it gets
used are part of the political process. The information which is considered to be
important in a debate and how it is interpreted is a reflection of the framing of the
problems to be tackled by government and nongovernmental actors. This means
that, far from being about what to measure and how, this book addresses more
fundamental questions about how the different actors in the transportation system
see their role in the broader sustainable development debate. This is discussed
further in Chap. 5.
For sustainability to matter, the concept needs to be made a priority and then
effectively operationalized in our decision-making frameworks. Once this occurs,
what is measured will also matter for sustainability. In the next four chapters of the
book, attention is given to clearly describe sustainable development and sustainable
transportation and to draw a boundary around the transportation system and its
governance to which these concepts are applied. This provides a critical baseline
position to understand and argue for the application of sustainability procedures to
improve decision support.

3
See the European Union’s efforts to promote Sustainable Urban Transport Plans, http://ec.
europa.eu/environment/urban/urban_transport.htm (accessed 6/2/2014).
4 1 Introduction

Sustainability is a complex and multidimensional issue that we argue cannot be


made operational without the use of indicators. Since the term “indicator” has
different meanings across multiple disciplines (such as engineering, law, finance,
and policy), a consistent definition of an indicator is provided (in Chap. 6) and
applied throughout the book. While there is a growing body of literature on
sustainable transportation indicators—for example, see Bongardt et al. (2011),
Holden (2013), Holden et al. (2013), Jeon et al. (2013), and Zietsman
et al. (2011)—we argue that there is no “predefined” set of indicators that can be
applied to measure the performance of sustainable transportation policies or
programs. What works in one place cannot simply be taken and reapplied else-
where. Predefined sets of sustainable transportation indicators can be informative,
but they should not be accepted wholesale, without consideration to the political,
organizational, and economic environment in which they are being applied.
During the preparation of this book, the authors supported a National Coopera-
tive Highway Research Program (NCHRP) research project to develop NCHRP
Report 708, “Guidebook for Sustainability Performance Measurement for Trans-
portation Agencies” (Zietsman et al. 2011). This project led to the identification of
hundreds of potential transportation indicators that could be used within a sustain-
able transportation performance measurement system.4 The research also supported
a number of interactive practitioner workshops to test the application of the
performance measurement framework developed by the research team. These
workshops revealed how an individual’s or group’s perspective plays a critical
role in shaping which indicators were selected for what purpose. For example, a
group of planners from a transportation agency might be interested in using
indicators to describe a perceived problem or communicate progress that has been
made on addressing a problem. The indicators selected for each type of application
may be quite different. The same indicator may also be selected, but it could be
viewed quite differently due to the framework through which the indicator is
viewed (see Chap. 7). As a result of this experience, and from supporting research
undertaken in the EU (Joumard and Gudmundsson 2010), the importance of clearly
specifying the context in which indicators are “applied” became apparent. Every
institution operates at a different scale, with a different purpose, and to a different
set of stakeholders. This context-specific nature of indicator application means that
it is not possible (or perhaps wise) to provide a single set of metrics that will be
applicable across different transportation agencies. It is instead necessary to focus
on how indicators can support the alignment of purpose to sustainability goals
across the system. While we do not dispute the value of standardizing indicators for
comparative purposes, our focus is on the development of performance measure-
ment systems that are fine-tuned to the specific needs of a transportation entity
wherever they sit in the system.
The real-world dynamic environment in which indicators are applied is probably
one reason why there has been limited progress in realizing more sustainable forms

4
These indicators are provided as an appendix to the main NCHRP report.
1.1 The Structure of the Book 5

of transportation. As will be discussed in this book, and highlighted by several of


the case studies, the implementation of an effective sustainable transportation
performance measurement system is a significant undertaking that requires leader-
ship and a sustained effort, along with space and time to adapt the framework as
learning occurs. In this book, we deliberately stopped short of presenting an
idealized performance measurement framework, since we recognize the importance
and persistence of existing decision-making practice and the need to make sustain-
able transportation work within existing governance structures. This is not to say we
are content with the status quo. Rather, it is a recognition that institutions change
slowly and therefore we need to start the task now, demonstrate that planning for
sustainable transportation leads to better decisions and outcomes, and work to
transform systems over time.

1.1 The Structure of the Book

This book is structured into two distinct parts which are preceded by this introduc-
tion (Chap. 1) and followed by our concluding remarks in Chap. 12.

Part I—Conceptual Foundations


• Chapter 2: Sustainable Development
• Chapter 3: Planning for Transportation
• Chapter 4: Transportation and Sustainability
• Chapter 5: Governance and Decision-Making in Transportation
• Chapter 6: Indicators
• Chapter 7: Frameworks

Part II—Case Studies


• Chapter 8: European Union Transport White Paper
• Chapter 9: High Speed Rail in England
• Chapter 10: New York’s GreenLITES Rating Systems
• Chapter 11: Japan’s “Eco-City Model” Program

Part I of the book develops several conceptual foundations on which the remain-
der of the book rests. It begins by exploring the emergence of the concept of
sustainable development through the lens of key international conferences and
publications (Chap. 2). By tracking the historical evolution of the concept, the
compromises that were made when crafting key foundational texts such as Our
Common Future and the Rio Declaration are revealed. One of the main objectives
of the chapter is to clarify the type of development that is being promoted or
endorsed when the Brundtland formulation of sustainable development is invoked.
Since most efforts to promote sustainable transportation are linked with the
Brundtland definition, having a clear grasp of the strengths and weaknesses of
6 1 Introduction

this definition is important. Chapter 2 also outlines the “weak” and “strong” forms
of sustainability to create a continuum along which sustainable transportation
initiatives and programs could be placed. Weak sustainability can be described as
an environmentally oriented business-as-usual approach to development, whereas
strong sustainability is a more radical reformulation where human activity has to be
kept within macroecological limits. Regardless of one’s perspective on sustainable
development, it is helpful to be able to articulate how policies and initiatives
designed to promote sustainable transportation align with established theoretical
frameworks. Knowing where, in principle, an organization stands on the weak to
strong sustainability continuum is likely to promote learning and a deeper appreci-
ation for what is or is not likely to be achieved through the organization’s actions.
Chapter 2 concludes by highlighting the need to adopt a holistic and integrative
perspective to the design of policies, programs, or initiatives targeted at addressing
unsustainability.
Having established a common understanding of sustainable development, Chap. 3
provides a comprehensive definition of a transportation system and attempts to
draw a boundary around what we mean by “transportation.” In particular, it considers
how the components of the different transportation modes and networks fit
together and are organized within a societal and environmental context. This broad
description of a complex socio-technical system highlights the connections that
exist between societal demand for travel and the consequences of this travel on
communities and the natural environment. The chapter also discusses how the
transportation system is continually shaped by political-economic actors/
stakeholders, as well as the availability of financial resources and the capacity to
develop/deliver transportation services—topics explored in more depth in Chap. 5.
In Chap. 4, we revisit the material introduced in Chap. 2 through the lens of
transportation. The chapter follows the evolution of the definitions and principles of
sustainable transportation since the early 1990s and argues that the current focus on
the concept might be too narrow and constraining. By positioning the transportation
system as one of many systems (or sectors) contributing to development, a holistic
perspective is presented that considers the transportation system through the lens of
sustainable development. Thus, the transportation system is conceived as one of
several interconnected systems, which raises the importance of developing
integrated, multi-sectoral solutions to the sustainability challenges ahead.
Having defined sustainable development and sustainable transportation and
drawn a boundary around what we consider to be a transportation system,
Chap. 5 explores the governance of this system. In particular, the chapter discusses
how the transportation system is governed by a range of state and non-state actors
that operate at the local to national/international level. The chapter makes the case
for the state’s intervention in shaping the transportation system—acknowledging
that this task in itself is a highly complex endeavor—and argues for the coordina-
tion (or better still, integration) of policy within any given level of government to
promote sustainable development/transportation. Several characteristics of gover-
nance systems that are considered to promote planning for sustainable transporta-
tion are also discussed. Finally, the chapter defines two broad domains of the
1.1 The Structure of the Book 7

transportation planning process—“planning” and “delivery.” Within each domain,


a series of functional areas are identified from long-term strategic planning to
operation and maintenance. The provision of transportation services within and
across these different functions is where the alignment of transportation and
sustainability happens in practice.
Chapter 6 defines, in depth, the various types of indicators that inform transpor-
tation planning and management. In addition, other key concepts such as perfor-
mance measures, indices, and benchmarks are discussed. Particular attention is paid
to identify ways to distinguish “good” from “bad” indicators using a set of well-
established criteria. The chapter also explores three indicator typologies by looking
at the dimensions of indicators (e.g., time and space), the messages they convey,
and their positions (i.e., whether they lead or lag a phenomenon of interest). The
discussion of indicators is not an indulgent technocratic activity. As we explore in
Part II of the book, indicators are everywhere in our decision-making processes so
we need to understand their purposes. The final section of the chapter therefore
focuses on eight indicator application areas—i.e., describe, forecast, review, diag-
nose, decide, account, learn, and communicate—that link the use of indicators to a
wide variety of planning, decision support, and operational tasks. Each of these
tasks may utilize different types of indicators or apply the same indicator in a
different context. Thus, having a clear understanding of the indented use of an
indicator is an essential first step in knowing whether the most appropriate type of
indicator has been selected. Further, explicitly focusing on whether a performance
measurement system is intended to diagnose a problem or help decision-makers
decide on a future course of action will help clarify the system’s purpose and
improve its relevance and value to an organization. This chapter begins therefore
to build the bridge between the institutional settings and the application of infor-
mation to real decisions.
Chapter 7 moves beyond individual measures to frameworks that connect
variables together in systems for planning and policy making in the area of
sustainability and transportation. The chapter begins by asking the basic question
of what is a framework and how can it provide a useful context for making a set of
indicators count? This simple question leads to a rich discussion of ways to “frame”
indicators, from broad ideas and paradigms to more specific systems adopted by
organizations. Both generic and practical frameworks that emphasize relevant areas
such as transportation appraisal, environmental planning, sustainability assessment,
and performance measurement are discussed. A key objective of the chapter is to
highlight how to identify the strengths and weaknesses of frameworks in terms of
how well they support thinking and acting on sustainability in transportation and
how well they support the different indicator applications introduced in Chap. 6. An
important conclusion from Chap. 7 is that efforts targeted at creating one single
performance measurement framework that works effectively everywhere is likely
to be a futile endeavor. This conclusion motivated the development of several
detailed case studies to explore how governments and transportation agencies are
framing and applying indicators to measure progress toward sustainable transpor-
tation. These case studies are presented in Part II of this book.
8 1 Introduction

In an effort to internationalize the scope to this book, four case studies were
selected from different developed regions of the world. The case studies were
selected because each, to some respect, captures something of what we consider
to be a globally interesting practice. They each exemplify different interpretations
of sustainability, different governance issues, different frameworks, and different
applications of indicators. They each exhibit strengths and weaknesses. Taken
together, they illustrate the scope of the challenge of, and the opportunities for,
joining up decision-making for sustainability. Part II of the book begins with an
introduction to the case studies that links the case studies to the material introduced
in Part I of the book.
Chapter 8 examines the 2011 European Transport White Paper as an example of
the application of indicators in the planning domain. The White Paper is unique in
that it emphasizes sustainability as an overarching goal for all areas of European
policy making and is perhaps the largest scale attempt to provide a guiding
framework for sustainable transportation that exists. The large geographic scale
and significant variations in baseline conditions in each of the countries that
comprise the EU provide for a useful reflection on the importance of frameworks
in providing a meta-environment within which other actors then operate.
Chapter 9 provides an ex-ante assessment of the case for the development of a
High-Speed Rail network in England, which would connect London and cities to
the north including Birmingham, Manchester, and Leeds. Specific attention is paid
to how indicators are used to appraise the sustainability of the High-Speed Rail
scheme. In addition, the indicators selected to support the scheme are discussed
through the describe, forecast, review, diagnose, and decide indicator application
areas, highlighting how various frameworks are being used simultaneously to
measure performance. The case study also highlights some of the tensions that
exist between national efforts to promote sustainable development and transporta-
tion infrastructure projects that are conceived in response to other drivers, such as
operational priorities.
Chapter 10 moves from the national to state level and takes a detailed look at
New York State Department of Transportation’s (NYSDOT’s) GreenLITES (Lead-
ership In Transportation and Environmental Sustainability) programs. Collectively,
the GreenLITES programs represent one of the leading sustainable transportation
performance measurement frameworks under development in the USA, which
cover project design, maintenance and operations, and regional planning. The
case study provides a unique perspective on how an agency’s culture plays an
essential role in the promotion of a sustainable transportation performance mea-
surement system. Particular attention is paid to how data from the GreenLITES
programs are used to support the capital investment decision-making process. An
important finding is how sustainability indicators need to compete alongside
existing, more traditional, indicators that measure, for example, pavement condi-
tion or safety. In this regard, the GreenLITES data have yet to become a leading
driving force in transportation investment decisions despite the progress that has
been made. The case study concludes by discussing how the indicators and data
References 9

from the GreenLITES programs are being used in the learn, decide, forecast, and
communicate indicator application areas.
Chapter 11, the final case study in Part II, describes the Eco-Model City (EMC)
program created by the Japanese Government in 2008, with a specific focus on the
regional capital city of Toyama. The objective of the EMC program is to transform
cities toward a low-carbon future. Progress toward this objective is measured using
a communicative, results-oriented framework involving central and local govern-
ment, as well as independent experts, where indicators are primarily applied to
review, diagnose, and learn. The case study focuses on the indictors used to assess
the city of Toyama’s EMC program implementation, reduction in greenhouse gas
emissions, and spread and extension of best practices.
To close out the book, Chap. 12 provides a concluding commentary and
highlights the main lessons and takeaway points from this work.
Like the concepts of sustainable development and sustainable transportation, the
preparation of this book can itself be characterized as a process of experimentation
and learning, driven by a clear purpose to make a contribution to the field of
sustainable transportation performance measurement. We hope that our emphasis
on the nuanced and context-specific nature of performance measurement
frameworks helps advance the general understanding of the subject.
Finally, we are humbled by the complexity of the challenge facing those tasked
with realizing more sustainable forms of transportation. Upon reading this text, we
invite students, academics, and practitioners to reach out to us with ideas on how the
material could be improved for future editions or for additional case studies that
could be developed based on the theories, frameworks, and examples introduced.
We have relished the challenge of writing this book and hope this enthusiasm is
reflected in the subsequent pages.

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Holden, M. (2013). Sustainability indicator systems within urban governance: Usability analysis
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Hoogma, R., Kemp, R., Schot, J., & Truffer, B. (2002). Experimenting for sustainable transport:
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change 2013: The physical science basis. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
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Part I
Conceptual Foundations
Sustainable Development
2

2.1 Purpose and Content

Since the late 1980s, sustainable development has garnered much interest from
government agencies, businesses, nongovernment organizations, and civic groups,
resulting in policy initiatives in both the public and private sector. Yet, people and
organizations citing sustainable development as an objective often lack a firm grasp
of the origins and true meaning of the concept. Such an understanding is important
as it provides a holistic perspective on development against which a sectoral—e.g.,
transportation specific—focus on sustainability can be considered. This chapter
explores the evolution of sustainable development through the perspective of
international conferences and publications often referred to in discussions of
sustainability. The chapter then introduces the challenges that are frequently
confronted when trying to conceptualize sustainable development through different
disciplinary lenses. It concludes with a discussion of the need to adopt a holistic and
integrative approach to the design of policies and initiatives aimed at achieving
more sustainable forms of development.

2.2 The Emergence of Sustainable Development

The concept of sustainable development obtained formal international recognition


at the 1992 United Nations Conference on Environment and Development
(UNCED) in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. However, it is possible to trace the roots of
the concept back to the 1950s/1960s, when developed nations were becoming
increasingly aware that the local or regional environment was being stressed by
rapid industrialization.1

1
The discussion in this section draws from Hall and Ashford (2012) and Ashford and Hall (2011).

# Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2016 15


H. Gudmundsson et al., Sustainable Transportation, Springer Texts in Business and
Economics, DOI 10.1007/978-3-662-46924-8_2
16 2 Sustainable Development

2.2.1 The Formation of Environmental Movements

Although events such as the London Smog of 1952–1953 illustrated the dangerous
effects of pollution (Bell and Davis 2001; Davis et al. 2002), it was the publication
of Rachael Carson’s book Silent Spring in 1962 that focused public attention on the
negative impacts of industrial activities (see Fig. 2.1 for a timeline of sustainability-
related events). Carson described the potential dangers of the excessive use of
pesticides (such as DDT) and argued that it served the interests of chemical
companies, industrial agriculture, the military, and universities to ignore these
dangers, promote their use, and continue their development. “Silent Spring altered
a balance of power in the world. No one since would be able to sell pollution as the
necessary underside of progress so easily or uncritically” (Hynes 1989, p. 3).2
In parallel with the growing distrust of the government-industry complex,
arguments warning the environmental problems associated with the prevailing
development model of rapid industrialization and economic growth began to
surface. Two classic publications which supported this movement were “The
Tragedy of the Commons” (Hardin 1968) and The Population Bomb (Ehrlich
1968). Hardin (1968) highlighted the natural tendency of private actors to exploit
the public/environmental commons to the point where it can no longer support
economic activity. Ehrlich (1968) expressed concern that the appetite of a growing
population may not be met by a fixed resource base—a similar argument to that
made in Limits to Growth (Meadows et al. 1972). The latter report was novel in its
use of computer simulations to illustrate potentially disastrous future consequences
of the continuation of current production and consumption patterns.
In response to public concern in the USA, Congress passed the National Envi-
ronmental Policy Act (NEPA) and signed it into law on January 1, 1970. NEPA was
designed to ensure that the entire federal bureaucracy considered the environmental
impacts of its actions (Blumm 1990). Since its passage, more than 100 countries
around the world have adopted similar procedures for environmental impact
assessments (Jay et al. 2007). In addition to placing the environment on a more
equal footing with development, the act influenced the Brundtland concept of
sustainable development that followed some two decades later (see Sect. 2.2.5).
NEPA required the federal government to “fulfill the responsibilities of each
generation as trustee of the environment for succeeding generations” (Sec.
101, (b), 1 [42 USC } 4331]). Intergenerational considerations now form a central
element of the idea of sustainable development.

2
Outside of the UK and the USA, a similar environmental awareness was emerging in other
developed regions. In Japan, problems such as the “Minamata” disease (caused by mercury
poisoning in the city of Minamata) starkly revealed the downsides of heavy industrial
development.
2.2 The Emergence of Sustainable Development 17

PUBLICATIONS EVENTS

Fig. 2.1 Timeline of key events and publications

2.2.2 The 1972 Stockholm Conference

As a result of growing environmental concerns within industrialized nations and an


awareness that these challenges were not confined by national borders, the United
Nations held a Conference on the Human Environment in Stockholm in 1972.
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memory
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Title: A trace of memory

Author: Keith Laumer

Illustrator: Lloyd Birmingham

Release date: November 3, 2023 [eBook #72015]

Language: English

Original publication: New York, NY: Ziff-Davis Publishing Company,


1962

Credits: Greg Weeks, Mary Meehan and the Online Distributed


Proofreading Team at http://www.pgdp.net

*** START OF THE PROJECT GUTENBERG EBOOK A TRACE OF


MEMORY ***
A TRACE OF MEMORY

By KEITH LAUMER

Illustrated by BIRMINGHAM

When Legion signed on as a soldier of fortune he did


not expect to wind up as the master of a private island.
Nor did he expect to cower in ancient Druid pits ... nor
fight for his life in the great hall at Okk-Hamiloth, on
a planet galaxies away. A master story-teller sweeps
you through time and space in a novel of retribution.

[Transcriber's Note: This etext was produced from


Amazing Stories July, August, September 1962.
Extensive research did not uncover any evidence that
the U.S. copyright on this publication was renewed.]
He opened his eyes and saw a grey wall where a red light gleamed
balefully in the gloom. He lay on a utility mat on a high couch, clad in
a gown of strange purple. In his arm there burned a harsh pain, and
he saw on his skin the mark of the Hunters. Who could have dared?
He sat up, swung his legs over the side of the narrow cot ... and saw
the bodies of two men huddled on the floor, blood-splashed. Beyond,
at a doorway, lay another, and another.... What carnage was this?
Gently he rolled the nearest body on its back—and crouched rigid in
shock. Ammaerln, his friend.... Not dead, but the pulse was faint, too
faint. And the next corpse? That, too, wore a face that had been dear
to him. And the bodies at the entry—his faithful men. All were friends!
Beyond the door the ranged shelves of a library gave back not even
an echo when he called. He turned again to his dead. It was fresh
death, the blood still wet. Quickly he scanned the room, saw a
recording monitor against a wall. He fitted the neurodes to the dying
man's temples. But for this gesture of recording his life's memories,
there was nothing he could do. He must get him to a therapist and
quickly. But no one answered his calls. Was he alone in these
chambers of death?
He ran through the library to a great echoing hall beyond. This was
not the Sapphire Palace beside the Shallow Sea. The lines were
unmistakable: he was aboard a ship, a far-voyager. Why? How? He
stood uncertain. The silence was absolute.
He crossed the Great Hall and entered the observation lounge. Here
lay another dead man, by his uniform a member of the crew. He
touched a knob and the great screens glowed blue. A giant crescent
swam into focus, locked, soft green against the black of space.
Beyond it a smaller companion hung, blue-blotched, airless. What
worlds were these?
When he had ranged the vast ship from end to end he knew that he
alone still lived. Seven corpses, cruelly slashed, peopled the silent
vessel. In the control sector the communicator lights glowed but to his
call there was no answer from the strange world below.
He returned to the recording room. Ammaerln still breathed weakly.
The memory recording had been completed; all that the dying man
remembered of his long life was imprinted now in the silvery cylinder.
It remained only to color-code the trace; that he would do on his
return.
His eye was caught by a small object still projecting from an aperture
at the side of the high couch where he had wakened. It was his own
memory-trace. So he himself had undergone the Change!
He thrust the color banded cylinder into a gown pocket—then whirled
at a sound. A nest of Hunters—the swarming globes of pale light
used to track down criminals—clustered at the door; then they were
upon him.
Without a weapon, he was helpless. He must escape the ship—and
quickly! While the suffocating horde pressed close, humming in their
eagerness, he caught up the unconscious Ammaerln. The Hunters
trailed him like a luminous streamer as he ran to the shuttle boat bay.
Three shuttles lay in their cradles. He groped to a switch, his head
swimming with the sulphurous reek of his attackers. Light flooded the
bay, driving them back. He entered the lifeboat, placed the body on a
cushioned couch. Perhaps he would find help for his friend below.
It had been long since he had manned the controls of a vessel, but he
had not forgotten.

The last of life ebbed from the injured man long before they reached
the planetary surface. The boat settled gently and the lock cycled. He
looked out at a vista of ragged forest.
This was no civilized world. Only the landing-ring and the clearing
around it showed the presence of man.
There was a hollow in the earth by a square marker block at the
eastern perimeter of the clearing. He carried his friend there and
placed him in it, scraped earth over the body. He lingered for a
moment, then he rose and turned back toward the shuttle boat....

A dozen men, squat, bearded, wrapped in the shaggy hides of


beasts, stood between him and the access ladder. The tallest among
them shouted, raised a bronze sword threateningly. Others clustered
at the ladder. One scrambled up, reached the top, disappeared into
the boat. In a moment he reappeared at the opening and hurled down
an armful of small bright objects of varied shapes and textures.
Others clambered up to share the loot as the first man again
vanished within the boat. But before the foremost had gained the
entry the port closed, shutting off a terrified cry from within the shuttle
boat.
Men dropped from the ladder as it swung up. The boat rose slowly,
angling toward the west, dwindling. The savages shrank back, awed.
The man watched until the tiny blue light was lost against the sky.

CHAPTER I
The ad read: "Soldiers of fortune seeks companion in arms to share
unusual adventure. Foster, Bos 19, Mayport."
I crumpled the newspaper and tossed it in the general direction of the
wire basket beside the park bench, pushed back a slightly frayed cuff,
and took a look at my bare wrist. It was just habit; the watch was in a
hock shop in Tupelo, Mississippi. It didn't matter. I didn't have to know
what time it was.
Across the park most of the store windows were dark along the side
street. There were no people in sight; they were all home now, having
dinner. As I watched, the lights blinked off in the drug store with the
bottles of colored water in the window; that left the candy and cigar
emporium at the end of the line. I fidgeted on the hard bench and felt
for a cigarette I didn't have. I wished the old boy back of the counter
would call it a day and go home. As soon as it was dark enough, I
was going to rob his store.
I wasn't a full-time stick-up artist. Maybe that's why that nervous
feeling was playing around under my rib cage. There was really
nothing to it. The wooden door with the hardware-counter lock that
would open almost as easily without a key as with one; the sardine-
can metal box with the day's receipts in it; I'd be on my way to the
depot with fare to Miami in my pocket ten minutes after I cracked the
door. I'd learned a lot harder tricks than petty larceny back when I had
a big future ahead with Army Intelligence. That was a long time ago,
and I'd had a lot of breaks since then—none good.

I got up and took another turn around the park. It was a warm
evening, and the mosquitos were out. I caught a whiff of frying
hamburger from the Elite Cafe down the street. It reminded me that I
hadn't eaten lately. There were lights on at the Commercial Hotel and
one in the ticket office at the station. The local police force was still
sitting on a stool at the Rexall talking to the counter girl. I could see
the .38 revolver hanging down in a worn leather holster at his hip. All
of a sudden, I was in a hurry to get it over with.
I took another look at the lights. All the stores were dark now. There
was nothing to wait for. I crossed the street, sauntered past the cigar
store. There were dusty boxes of stogies in the window, and piles of
home-made fudge stacked on plates with paper doilies under them.
Behind them, the interior of the store looked grim and dead. I passed,
looked around, moved toward the door—
A black sedan eased around the corner and pulled in to the curb. A
face leaned over to look at me through lenses like the bottoms of
tabasco bottles, the hot evening air stirred, and I felt my damp shirt
cold against my back.
"Looking for anything in particular, Mister?" the cop said.
I just looked at him.
"Passing through town, are you?" he asked.
For some reason I shook my head.
"I've got a job here," I said. "I'm going to work—for Mr. Foster."
"What Mr. Foster?" The cop's voice was wheezy, but relentless, a
voice used to asking questions.
I remembered the ad—something about an adventure. Foster, Box
19. The cop was still staring at me.
"Box nineteen," I said.
He looked me over some more, then reached across and opened the
door. "Better come on down to the station house with me, Mister," he
said.
At Police Headquarters, the cop motioned me to a chair, sat behind a
desk, and pulled a phone to him. He dialled slowly, then swivelled his
back to me to talk. Insects danced around a bare light bulb. There
was an odor of stale beer and leather and unwashed bedding. I sat
and listened to a radio in the distance wailing a sad song.
It was half an hour before I heard a car pull up outside. The man who
came through the door was wearing a light suit that was neither new
nor freshly pressed, but had that look of perfect fit and taste that only
the most expensive tailoring can achieve. He moved in a relaxed way,
but with a sense of power held in reserve. At first glance I thought he
was in his middle thirties, but when he looked my way I saw the fine
lines around the blue eyes. I got to my feet. He came over to me.
"I'm Foster," he said, and held out his hand. I shook it.
"My name's Legion," I said.
The desk sergeant spoke up. "This fellow says he come here to
Mayport to see you, Mr. Foster."
Foster looked at me steadily. "That's right, Sergeant. This gentleman
is considering a proposition I've made."
"Well, I didn't know, Mr. Foster," the cop said.
"I quite understand, Sergeant," Foster said. "We all feel better,
knowing you're on the job."
"Well, you know," the cop said.
"We may as well be on our way then," Foster said. "If you're ready,
Mr. Legion."
"Sure, I'm ready," I said. Mr. Foster said goodnight to the cop and we
went out. On the pavement in front of the building I stopped.
"Thanks, Mr. Foster," I said. "I'll get out of your hair now."

Foster had his hand on the door of a deceptively modest-looking


cabriolet. I could smell the solid leather upholstery from where I
stood.
"Why not come along to my place, Legion," he said. "We might at
least discuss my proposition."
I shook my head. "I'm not the man for the job, Mr. Foster," I said. "If
you'd like to advance me a couple of bucks, I'll get myself a bite to eat
and fade right out of your life."
"What makes you so sure you're not interested?"
"Your ad said something about adventure. I've had my adventures.
Now I'm just looking for a hole to crawl into."
"I don't believe you, Legion." Foster smiled at me, a slow, calm smile.
"I think your adventures have hardly begun."
I thought about it. If I went along, I'd at least get a meal—and maybe
even a bed for the night. It was better than curling up under a tree.
"Well," I said, "a remark like that demands time for an explanation." I
got in the car and sank back in a seat that seemed to fit me like
Foster's jacket fit him.
"I hope you won't mind if I drive fast," Foster said. "I want to be home
before dark." We started up and wheeled away from the curb like a
torpedo sliding out of the launching tube.

I got out of the car in the drive at Foster's house, and looked around
at the wide clipped lawn, the flower beds that were vivid even by
moonlight, the line of tall poplars, and the big white house.
"I wish I hadn't come," I said. "This kind of place reminds me of all the
things I haven't gotten out of life."
"Your life's still ahead of you," Foster said. He opened the slab of
mahogany that was the front door, and I followed him inside. At the
end of a short hall he flipped a switch that flooded the room before us
with soft light. I stared at a pale grey carpet about the size of a tennis
court, decked out with Danish teak upholstered in rich colors. The
walls were a rough-textured grey; here and there were expensively
framed abstractions. The air was cool with the heavy coolness of air
conditioning. Foster crossed to a bar that looked modest in the
setting, in spite of being bigger than those in most beer joints.
"Would you care for a drink?" he said.
I looked down at my limp, stained suit, and grimy cuffs.
"Look, Mr. Foster," I said. "I just realized something. If you've got a
stable, I'll go sleep in it—"
Foster laughed. "Come on; I'll show you the bath."

I came downstairs, clean, showered, and wearing a set of Foster's


clothes. I found him sitting, sipping a drink and listening to music.
"The Liebestod," I said. "A little gloomy, isn't it?"
"I read something else into it," Foster said. "Sit down and have a bite
to eat and a drink."
I sat in one of the big soft chairs and tried not to let my hand shake as
I reached for one of the sandwiches piled on the coffee table.
"Tell me something, Mr. Legion," Foster said. "Why did you come
here, mention my name—if you didn't intend to see me?"
I shook my head. "It just worked out that way."
"Tell me something about yourself," Foster said.
"It's not much of a story."
"Still, I'd like to hear it."
"Well, I was born, grew up, went to school—"
"What school?"
"University of Illinois."
"What was your major?"
"Music," I answered at once.
Foster looked at me, frowning slightly.
"It's the truth," I said. "I wanted to be a conductor. The army had other
ideas. I was in my last year when the draft got me. They discovered I
had what they considered an aptitude for Intelligence work. I didn't
mind it. I had a pretty good time for a couple of years."
"Go on," Foster said. Well, I'd had a bath and a good meal. I owed
him something. If he wanted to hear my troubles, why not tell him?
"I was putting on a demonstration. A defective timer set off a charge
of HE fifty seconds early on a one-minute setting. A student was
killed; I got off easy with a busted eardrum and a pound or two of
gravel imbedded in my back. When I got out of the hospital, the army
felt real bad about letting me go—but they did. My terminal leave pay
gave me a big weekend in San Francisco and set me up in business
as a private investigator."
I took another long pull at a big pewter tankard of ale and went on.
"I had enough left over after the bankruptcy proceeding a few months
later to get me to Las Vegas. I lost what was left and took a job with a
casino operator named Gonino.
"I stayed with Gonino for nearly a year. Then one night a visiting bank
clerk lost his head and shot him eight times with a .22 target pistol. I
left town the same night."

I swallowed some more of Foster's ale. It was the best. Foster was a
pretty good egg, too.
"After that I sold used cars for a couple of months in Memphis; then I
made like a life guard at Daytona; baited hooks on a thirty foot tuna
boat out of Key West; all the odd jobs with low pay and no future. I
spent a couple of years in Cuba; all I got out of that was two bullet
scars on the left leg, and a prominent position on a CIA blacklist.
"After that things got tough. A man in my trade can't really hope to
succeed in a big way without the little blue card in the plastic cover to
back his play. I was headed south for the winter, and I picked Mayport
to run out of money."
I stood up. "I sure enjoyed the bath, Mr. Foster, and the meal, too—
not to mention the beer. I'd like real well to get in that bed upstairs
and have a night's sleep just to make it complete; but I'm not
interested in the job." I turned away, started across the room.
"Legion," Foster said. I turned. A beer bottle was hanging in the air in
front of my face. I put a hand up fast and the bottle slapped my palm.
"Not a bad set of reflexes for a man whose adventures are all behind
him," Foster said.
I tossed the bottle aside. "If I'd missed, that would have knocked my
teeth out," I said angrily.
"You didn't miss—even though you're weaving a little from the beer.
And a man who can feel a pint or so of beer isn't an alcoholic—so
you're clean on that score."
"I didn't say I was ready for the rummy ward," I said. "I'm just not
interested in your proposition—whatever it is."
"Legion," Foster said, "maybe you have the idea I put that ad in the
paper last week, on a whim. The fact is, I've been running it—in one
form or another—for over eight years."
I looked at him and waited.
"Not only locally—I've run it in the big-city papers, and in some of the
national weekly and monthly publications. All together, I've had
perhaps fifty responses."
Foster smiled wryly. "About three quarters of them were from women
who thought I wanted a playmate. Several more were from men with
the same idea. The few others were hopelessly unsuitable."
"That's surprising," I said. "I'd have thought you'd have brought half
the nuts in the country out of the woodwork by now."
Foster looked at me, not smiling. I realized suddenly that behind the
urbane facade there was a hint of tension, a trace of worry in the level
blue eyes.

"I'd like very much to interest you in what I have to say, Legion. I think
you lack only one thing—confidence in yourself."
I gave a sort of laugh. "What are the qualifications you think I have?
I'm a jack of no trades—"
"Legion, you're a man of considerable intelligence and more than a
little culture; you've travelled widely and know how to handle yourself
in difficult situations—or you wouldn't have survived. I'm sure your
training includes techniques of entry and fact-gathering not known to
the average man; and perhaps most important, although you're an
honest man, you're capable of breaking the law—when necessary."
"So that's it," I said.
"No, I'm not forming a mob, Legion. As I said in the ad—this is an
unusual adventure. It may—probably will—involve infringing various
statutes and regulations of one sort or another. After you know the full
story I'll leave you to judge whether it's justifiable."
If Foster was trying to arouse my curiosity, he was succeeding. He
was dead serious about whatever it was he was planning. It sounded
like something no one with good sense would want to get involved in
—but on the other hand, Foster didn't look like the sort of man to do
anything foolish....
"Why don't you tell me what this is all about?" I said. "Why would a
man with all this—" I waved a hand at the luxurious room—"want to
pick a hobo like me out of the gutter and talk him into taking a job?"
"Your ego has taken a severe beating, Legion—that's obvious. I think
you're afraid that I'll expect too much of you—or that I'll be shocked
by some disclosure you may make. Perhaps if you'd forget yourself
and your problems for the moment, we could reach an understanding
—"
"Yeah," I said. "Just forget my problems—"
"Chiefly money problems, of course. Most of the problems of this
society involve the abstraction of values that money represents."
"Okay," I said. "I've got my problems, you've got yours. Let's leave it
at that."
"You feel that, because I have material comfort, my problems must of
necessity be trivial ones. Tell me, Mr. Legion: have you ever known a
man who suffered from amnesia?"

Foster crossed the room to a small writing desk, took something from
a drawer, looked at me.
"I'd like you to examine this," he said.
I went over and took the object from his hand. It was a small book,
with a cover of drab-colored plastic, unornamented except for an
embossed design of two concentric rings. I opened the cover. The
pages were as thin as tissue, but opaque, and covered with
extremely fine writing in strange foreign characters. The last dozen
pages were in English. I had to hold the book close to my eyes to
read the minute script:
"January 19, 1710. Having come nigh to calamity with the near lofs of
the key, I will henceforth keep thif journal in the Englifh tongue...."
"If this is an explanation of something, it's too subtle for me," I said.
"Legion, how old would you say I am?"
"That's a hard one," I said. "When I first saw you I would have said
the late thirties, maybe. Now, frankly, you look closer to fifty."
"I can show you proof," Foster said, "that I spent the better part of a
year in a military hospital in France. I awakened in a ward, bandaged
to the eyes, and with no memories whatever of my life before that
day. According to the records made at the time, I appeared to be
about thirty years of age."
"Well," I said, "amnesia's not so unusual among war casualties.
You've done well since."
Foster shook his head impatiently. "There's nothing difficult about
acquiring material wealth in this society, though the effort kept me
well occupied for a number of years—and diverted my thoughts from
the question of my past life. The time came, however, when I had the
leisure to pursue the matter. The clues I had were meagre enough;
the notebook I've shown you was found near me, and I had a ring on
my finger." Foster held out his hand. On the middle finger was a
massive signet, engraved with the same design of concentric circles I
had seen on the cover of the notebook.

"I was badly burned; my clothing was charred. Oddly enough, the
notebook was quite unharmed, though it was found among burned
debris. It's made of very tough stuff."
"What did you find out?"
"In a word—nothing. No military unit claimed me. I spoke English,
from which it was deduced that I was English or American—"
"They couldn't tell which, from your accent?"
"Apparently not; it appears I spoke a sort of hybrid dialect."
"Maybe you're lucky. I'd be happy to forget my first thirty years."
"I spent a considerable sum of money in my attempts to discover my
past," Foster went on. "And several years of time. In the end I gave it
up. And it wasn't until then that I found the first faint inkling."
"So you did find something?"
"Nothing I hadn't had all along. The notebook."
"I'd have thought you would have read that before you did anything
else," I said. "Don't tell me you put it in the bureau drawer and forgot
it."
"I read it, of course—what I could read of it. Only a relatively small
section is in English. The rest is a cipher. And what I read seemed
meaningless—quite unrelated to me. You've glanced through it; it's no
more than a journal, irregularly kept, and so cryptic as to be little
better than a code itself. And of course the dates; they range from the
early eighteenth century through the early twentieth."
"A sort of family record, maybe," I said. "Carried on generation after
generation. Didn't it mention any names, or places?"
"Look at it again, Legion," Foster said. "See if you notice anything odd
—other than what we've already discussed."
I thumbed through the book again. It was no more than an inch thick,
but it was heavy—surprisingly heavy. There were a lot of pages—I
shuffled through hundreds of closely written sheets and yet the book
was less than half used. I read bits here and there:
"May 4, 1746. The Voyage waf not a Succefs. I muft forfake thif
avenue of Enquiry...."
"October 23, 1790. Builded the weft Barrier a cubit higher. Now the
fires burn every night. Is there no limit to their infernal perfiftence?"
"January 19, 1831. I have great hopes for the Philadelphia enterprise.
My greatest foe is impatience. All preparations for the Change are
made, yet I confess I am uneasy...."

"There are plenty of oddities," I said. "Aside from the entries


themselves. This is supposed to be old—but the quality of the paper
and binding beats anything I've seen. And that handwriting is pretty
fancy for a quill pen—"
"There's a stylus clipped to the spine of the book," Foster said. "It was
written with that."
I looked, pulled out a slim pen, then looked at Foster. "Speaking of
odd," I said. "A genuine antique early colonial ball-point pen doesn't
turn up every day—"
"Suspend your judgment until you've seen it all," Foster said.
"And two-hundred years on one refill—that's not bad." I riffled through
the pages, tossed the book onto the table. "Who's kidding who,
Foster?" I said.
"The book was described in detail in the official record, of which I
have copies. They mention the paper and binding, the stylus, even
quote some of the entries. The authorities worked over it pretty
closely, trying to identify me. They reached the same conclusion as
you—that it was the work of a crackpot; but they saw the same book
you're looking at now."
"So what? So it was faked up some time during the war—what does
that prove? I'm ready to concede it's sixteen years old—"
"You don't understand, Legion," Foster said. "I told you I work up in a
military hospital in France. But it was an AEF hospital and the year
was 1918."

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