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Sustainable Development Goals Series
Connecting the Goals

Attila Kerényi
Richard William McIntosh

Sustainable
Development
in Changing
Complex Earth
Systems
With contributions from
Zoltán Túri
Sustainable Development Goals Series
World leaders adopted Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) as part of the
2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. Providing in-depth knowledge,
this series fosters comprehensive research on these global targets to end
poverty, fight inequality and injustice, and tackle climate change.
The sustainability of our planet is currently a major concern for the global
community and has been a central theme for a number of major global initia-
tives in recent years. Perceiving a dire need for concrete benchmarks toward
sustainable development, the United Nations and world leaders formulated
the targets that make up the seventeen goals. The SDGs call for action by all
countries to promote prosperity while protecting Earth and its life support
systems. This series on the Sustainable Development Goals aims to provide a
comprehensive platform for scientific, teaching and research communities
working on various global issues in the field of geography, earth sciences,
environmental science, social sciences, engineering, policy, planning, and
human geosciences in order to contribute knowledge towards achieving the
current 17 Sustainable Development Goals.
This Series is organized into eighteen subseries: one based around each of
the seventeen Sustainable Development Goals, and an eighteenth subseries,
“Connecting the Goals,” which serves as a home for volumes addressing mul-
tiple goals or studying the SDGs as a whole. Each subseries is guided by an
expert Subseries Advisor.
Contributions are welcome from scientists, policy makers and researchers
working in fields related to any of the SDGs. If you are interested in contrib-
uting to the series, please contact the Publisher: Zachary Romano [Zachary.
Romano@springer.com].

More information about this series at http://www.springer.com/series/15486

Attila Kerényi
Richard William McIntosh

Sustainable
Development
in Changing Complex
Earth Systems

With contributions from Zoltán Túri

Attila Kerényi Richard William McIntosh
Landscape Protection and Mineralogy and Geology
Environmental Geography University of Debrecen
University of Debrecen Debrecen, Hungary
Debrecen, Hungary

ISSN 2523-3084     ISSN 2523-3092 (electronic)

Sustainable Development Goals Series
ISBN 978-3-030-21644-3    ISBN 978-3-030-21645-0 (eBook)
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-21645-0

© Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020

This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved by the Publisher, whether the whole or
part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of
illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way,
and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software,
or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed.
The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this
publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are
exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use.
The publisher, the authors, and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in
this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor
the authors or the editors give a warranty, express or implied, with respect to the material
contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made. The publisher remains
neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

This Springer imprint is published by the registered company Springer Nature Switzerland AG
The registered company address is: Gewerbestrasse 11, 6330 Cham, Switzerland
Foreword

The different aspects of sustainable development are treated in an ever-­

growing number of publications. Since the approach here is geographically
most comprehensive, this book, issued in the Springer series of Sustainable
Development Goals, is a welcome addition to that rich library. An advantage
and novelty of the geographers’ approach is that he has an overview of the
operation of the total Earth system, including the geospheres from the core to
the stratosphere, and not overlooking the intricate trade-offs between human
activities and the global environment. The contents of the book are arranged
according to this approach: following basic information on general systems
theory and the brief description and evaluation of Earth models, the environ-
mental systems are presented starting with endogenic effects on society. Then
the main issues of human transformation of the pedosphere, hydrosphere,
atmosphere and the operation of the anthroposphere are investigated in the
concept of systems theory.
A major step towards the scientific foundation of sustainable development
was the formulation of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) of the United
Nations for 2030. In Chap. 6 of the volume, the difficulties involved in the
implementation of some of the goals (for instance, the reduction of social and
economic inequalities, the provision of affordable food, water, energy to all
and others) are examined. The small steps necessary towards reaching these
goals are outlined. The authors constantly confront their own views with the
opinions of a whole range of international experts engaged in the study of the
future of humankind. Emphasis is laid on raising the level of environmental
awareness through education—both within the walls of its institutions and
employing any channel useful for the shaping of public opinion.
Experts are aware of the fact that the global environment is in critical con-
dition. The exceedance of several planetary boundaries (biogeochemical
flows of nitrogen and phosphorus, genetic diversity and possibly climate
change) has been proven by scientists. The disproportions in the balance of
demand and supply have been pointed out for several resources (land, water,
food). The scientific basis of sustainable use of (conditionally) renewable and
non-renewable resources as well as the reduction of pollution has been estab-
lished and it is solid. However, it is primarily the responsibility of decision-­
makers who rely on scientific findings in designing and implementing
long-term development plans. Although many threats to sustainable develop-
ment are enumerated and analysed in various chapters, the authors are con-
vinced that a transformation of the system of political institutions is inevitable

v
vi Foreword

to the purpose that international agreements on the protection of the global

environment should be binding for all countries. This could ensure the
achievement of the final aim, that is, the creation of an optimal environment
for a human society operating and observing the principles of systems
theory.
In spite of the gravity of the situation, the book reflects the authors’ convic-
tion that a safe operation space can still be ensured for humanity in the future.

Institute of Geography and Earth Sciences Dénes Lóczy

University of Pécs
Pécs, Hungary
Preface

This book is about the present and, to a certain extent, the future of our planet.
A number of books focusing on the relationship of human and environment
have been published, but in this book the multi-directional interactions of the
society and the natural environment of the Earth are placed in consistent sys-
tems thinking. Human society is regarded to be part of the global Earth sys-
tem on which our existence depends. The ways how society shall adjust to
threatening natural forces are presented together with the disturbances in the
operation of the complex Earth system caused by human activities and the
feedback on the life of the society.
Although Earth’s spheres are presented separately, it is emphasised
throughout that effects on a particular sphere trigger consequences spreading
from one sphere to another. Although the structure of the book follows the
sub-systems (geosphere, pedosphere, hydrosphere, biosphere, atmosphere)
and starts from the primary anthropogenic effects on the given sub-system,
their further effects on the different sub-systems and feedbacks on the society
itself are also discussed. These also support the united and complex character
of the global Earth system.
Present structure and operation, current processes of the global society are
also discussed together with steps taken forward to sustainable development.
An attempt is made to outline the most important tasks to achieve, on the one
hand, more humane conditions in most parts of the world and on the other
hand, processes operating in harmony with the natural environment. We know
that there is not a single recipe for beneficial changes, but we also know that
such changes can only be achieved by changing collective consciousness
which probably requires the time of several generations. This is a race with
time. Unfortunately, humans have the bad habit of taking effective measures
to impede harmful changes only when it already feels the merciless effects.
In that case, the question remains: is it too late?

Debrecen, Hungary Attila Kerényi

Debrecen, Hungary  Richard William McIntosh
January 2019

vii
Acknowledgment

Two young colleagues of mine contributed to this book. Richard William

McIntosh translated the entire text and his name also appears after one sub-
chapter as he is the author of that subchapter. Moreover, the digital appear-
ance of a part of the figures is also his work. I would like to thank him here for
these works as well and also his wife Andrea Buday-McIntosh for her valu-
able help in drawing some of the figures. I would also like to express my grati-
tude to Zoltán Túri for composing one subchapter and preparing the maps in
the book. Katalin Sári’s help was also important regarding administrative
issues. All of them were worthy partners in the work of composing this book.
Last but not least, I thank my wife, Zsóka, for her patience during the
work.

Debrecen, Hungary Attila Kerényi

ix
Contents

1 Introduction����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������   1
1.1 Qualitative Changes in the Evolution of the Earth��������������������   1
1.2 Sustainable Development����������������������������������������������������������   2
1.3 From the Brundtland Report to Sustainable Development ������   6
2 Structure and Operation of Systems, Models
of the Global Earth System �������������������������������������������������������������� 11
2.1 Systems Basics�������������������������������������������������������������������������� 11
2.2 Operation of Material Systems ������������������������������������������������ 16
2.2.1 Feedbacks���������������������������������������������������������������������� 16
2.2.2 Behaviour of Systems Regarding External
or Internal Effects: Chaos Theory and Adaptive
Systems ������������������������������������������������������������������������ 18
2.3 Classification of Environmental Systems and Their Most
Important Characteristics���������������������������������������������������������� 21
2.4 Topology of Systems: Network Theory������������������������������������ 24
2.5 System Models and Model Making������������������������������������������ 27
2.6 Earth Models, “World Models”������������������������������������������������ 31
2.6.1 PREM Model and the New Global
Geodynamic Model������������������������������������������������������ 32
2.6.2 Global Climate Simulation Models������������������������������ 35
2.6.3 A Controversial but Significant Biosphere
Model (GAIA)�������������������������������������������������������������� 37
2.6.4 “World Models”: Models of the Global
Human Society�������������������������������������������������������������� 42
2.6.5 A Homomorphic Earth Model�������������������������������������� 51
3 Internal Material Flows in the Earth and Their Effects
on the Society�������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 59
3.1 Material Flow in the Outer Core of Earth �������������������������������� 59
3.2 Effects of Material Flows in the Mantle
and the Lithosphere on the Society������������������������������������������ 60
3.2.1 Volcanism and the Society�������������������������������������������� 61
3.2.2 Effects of Earthquakes on the Society�������������������������� 68
3.3 Effects of Volcanism and Earthquakes on Sustainable
Development ���������������������������������������������������������������������������� 74

xi
xii Contents

4 Changes on Earth as a Result of Interaction Between

the Society and Nature���������������������������������������������������������������������� 75
4.1 Changes in the Outer Boundary Zone of the Earth’s Crust������ 75
4.1.1 Exploitation and Processing of the Useful Material
of the Crust and Their Environmental Effects�������������� 76
4.1.2 Transformation of the Earth’s Surface:
Construction and Its Consequences������������������������������ 98
4.2 Changes in the Pedosphere ������������������������������������������������������ 120
4.2.1 Major Processes Contributing
to Soil Degradation ������������������������������������������������������ 120
4.2.2 Effects of Using Fertilisers on Nitrogen
and Phosphorus Cycles ������������������������������������������������ 123
4.2.3 Area Available for Agriculture�������������������������������������� 126
4.2.4 Effects of Basic Agricultural Systems
on Soils and Production Rates�������������������������������������� 128
4.3 Changes in the Hydrosphere ���������������������������������������������������� 134
4.3.1 Global Hydrological Cycle and Water Reservoirs�������� 134
4.3.2 Contamination of Oceans���������������������������������������������� 137
4.3.3 State of Fresh Waters���������������������������������������������������� 146
4.3.4 Fresh Water Scarcity, Polluted Potable
Water and Their Consequences on the Society������������ 159
4.4 Changes in the Biosphere���������������������������������������������������������� 160
4.4.1 Carbon Cycle���������������������������������������������������������������� 160
4.4.2 Biosphere Modified by Humanity�������������������������������� 163
4.4.3 Accelerating Deterioration of the Biosphere:
The Sixth Great Extinction Period�������������������������������� 165
4.5 Changes in the Atmosphere Owing to Human
Impacts and Their Consequences���������������������������������������������� 183
4.5.1 Increasing Amount of Greenhouse Gases
and Climate Change������������������������������������������������������ 183
4.5.2 Expected Trends and Consequences
of Climate Change�������������������������������������������������������� 188
4.5.3 Gases Inducing Acid Deposition���������������������������������� 195
4.5.4 Present and Future of the Ozone Shield������������������������ 199
5 Structure and Operation of the Global Society
(Anthroposphere) ������������������������������������������������������������������������������ 203
5.1 Globalisation: Nation-States: Environment
and Nature Protection �������������������������������������������������������������� 203
5.2 Global and National Institutes Controlling
the Operation of the Society ���������������������������������������������������� 207
5.3 Global Civil Society������������������������������������������������������������������ 210
5.4 Wars, Destroying the Society and the Natural
Environment������������������������������������������������������������������������������ 213
5.5 The New or Digital Globalisation�������������������������������������������� 217
5.6 “Multi-Layered” Global Society and Sustainable
Development ���������������������������������������������������������������������������� 223
Contents xiii

6 Steps Towards Realising Global Sustainable Development ���������� 227

6.1 Sciences and the Implementation of Sustainable
Development Goals (SDGs) of UN������������������������������������������ 227
6.2 SDG: Renewing Education in a Bit More Detail���������������������� 234
6.3 SDG: Sustainable Economic Growth. Possible?���������������������� 240
6.4 SDG: Decreasing Inequalities. Possible?���������������������������������� 242
6.5 Missing from SDGs: Stabilising the Population of Earth�������� 244
6.6 SDG: Making Peace Among Different Religious
and Cultural Civilisations. Possible?���������������������������������������� 246
6.7 Beyond SDGs: How to Develop the Global Society
in the Future? Concepts Regarding the Future
of the Society���������������������������������������������������������������������������� 248
6.7.1 Development of the Society Based on Economics ������ 248
6.7.2 Effects of Technical Development on the Society�������� 254
6.7.3 Development of the Society on the Basis
of the Current Favourable Changes (the Theory
of the “Second Curve”)������������������������������������������������ 254
6.7.4 High Standard Higher Education as the Basis
for Progress (the Future of Massive Open
Online Courses)������������������������������������������������������������ 258
6.7.5 Meadows’ Team on Sustainable Development ������������ 259
7 Conclusions: Towards an Environmental Friendly
Humane Society���������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 263
Bibliography �������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 269
Index���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 283
Abbreviations

10YFP-SCP 10 Year Framework of Programmes on Sustainable

Consumption and Production
AAAA Addis Ababa Action Agenda
AFOLU Agriculture, forestry and other land use
AMD Acid mine drainage
AOGCM Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model
BAT Best Available Technique
BECCS Bioenergy with CCS
CBD Convention on Biological Diversity
CCS Carbon dioxide capture and storage
CEDAW Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Discrimination
against Women
CEM Circular economy model
CFC Chlorine-fluorine-carbon
CFS Committee on World Food Security
CGMW Commission for the Geological Map of the World
CIS Commonwealth of Independent States
CITES Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of
Wild Fauna and Flora
CLCS Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf
CLIVAR Climate Variability and Predictability
CMIP5 Coupled Carbon Cycle Climate Model Intercomparison
Project
CMS Convention on Migratory Species
CPU Central processing unit
CRC UN Convention on the Rights of the Child
CRPD Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities
CSO Civil Society Organization
DU Dobson Unit
EC European Commission
EEA European Environment Agency
EEZ Exclusive Economic Zone
EfA Education for All
EIA Energy Information Administration (U.S.)
EMIC Earth system Models of Intermediate Complexity
EPI Economic Policy Institute
FAO Food and Agriculture Organization

xv
xvi Abbreviations

FBDG Food-Based Dietary Guidelines

FfD Financing for Development
FOLU Forestry and other land use
FSC Forest Stewardship Council
FWW Future We Want
GaWC Globalization and World Cities
GCB Global Conveyor Belt
GCOS Global Climate Observing System
GCP Global Carbon Project
GDACS Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System
GDP Gross Domestic Product
GEF Global Environment Fund
GEO Group on Earth Observations
GESAMP Joint Group of Experts on the Scientific Aspects of Marine
Environmental Protection
GEWEX Global Energy and Water Exchanges
GHG Greenhouse gas
GMO Genetically modified organism
GNP Gross National Product
GO2NE Global Ocean Oxygen Network
GPI Genuine Progress Indicator
GPP (Annual) Gross primary production
GPS Global positioning system
GRACE Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment
GSNL Geohazard Supersites and Natural Laboratory
GWP Global warming potential
HCFC Hydrogenated chlorine-fluorine-carbon
HDI Human Development Index
HfA Health for All
HFC Fluorinated hydrocarbon
HLPE High Level Panel of Experts
HLPF High-Level Political Forum on Sustainable Development
HPI Happy planet index
IAEA International Atomic Energy Agency
IBRD International Bank for Reconstruction and Development
ICAO International Civil Aviation Organization
ICESCR International Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural
Rights
ICOLD International Commission on Large Dams
IDA International Development Association
IDNDR Internat. Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction
IEA CCC International Energy Agency Clean Coal Centre
IEA WEO International Energy Agency World Energy Outlook
IGBP International Geosphere–Biosphere Programme
IGCC Integrated gasification combined cycle
IGO Intergovernmental Organization
IIASA International Institute for Applied System Analysis
ILO International Labour Organization
Abbreviations xvii

IMO International Maritime Organization

INES International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale
INFORSE International Network for Sustainable Energy
InSAR Synthetic Aperture Radar Interferometry
IOC Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission
IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
IPF Intergovernmental Panel on Forests
ISA International Seabed Authority
ISEW Index of Sustainable Economic Welfare
ISRIC International Soil Reference and Information Centre
ITLOS International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea
ITOPF International Tanker Owners Pollution Federation
ITPS Intergovernmental Technical Panel on Soils
IUCN International Union for Conservation of Nature
JPoI Johannesburg Plan of Implementation
LDC Least Developed Country
LLL Life Long Learning
LMI Living Marine Index
LPI Living Planet Index
LST Land surface temperature
MARPOL International Convention for the Prevention of Pollution from
Ships
MDG Millennium Development Goal
NASA National Aeronautics and Space Administration
NEWS NASA Energy and Water Cycle Study
NGDO Non-Governmental Development Organization
NGO Non-Governmental Organization
NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
OBOR One Belt One Road
ODA Official Development Assistance
OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
OPEC Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries
OPRC International Convention on Oil Pollution Preparedness,
Response and Co-operation
OSHA Occupational Safety and Health Administration (USA)
PFC Polyfluorinated compounds
PIC Prior informed consent
POP Persistent organic pollutant
PST Paralytic shellfish toxin
RCP Representative concentration pathway
REE Rare earth element
RGS Renewable groundwater stress
SAICM Strategic Approach to International Chemicals Management
SARD Sustainable Agriculture and Rural Development
SDG Sustainable Development Goals
SE4ALL Sustainable Energy for All
SME Society for Mining, Metallurgy, and Exploration
SPARC Stratospheric processes and their role in climate
xviii Abbreviations

SUHI Surface urban heat island

TFM Technology Facilitation Mechanism
TFSC Thin-film solar cells
TGO Transgenic organism
UCG Underground coal gasification
UDHR Universal Declaration of Human Rights
UHI Urban heat island
UMD University of Maryland
UNC United Nations Charter
UNCED United Nations Conference on Environment and Development
UNCLOS UN Convention on the Law of the Sea
UNCSD UN Conference on Sustainable Development
UNDM UN Declaration on the Rights of Persons Belonging to
National or Ethnic, Religious and Linguistic Minorities
UNDP UN Development Programme
UNEP UN Environment Programme
UNFCCC UN Framework Convention on Climate Change
UNFF UN Forum on Forests
US United States of America
USEPA U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
USGS U.S. Geological Survey
VEI Volcanic Explosivity Index
W2030 Our World 2030
WCED World Committee on Environment and Development
WCRP World Climate Research Programme
WEC World Energy Council
WHC World Heritage Convention
WHO World Health Organization
WHYMAP World-wide Hydrogeological Mapping and Assessment
Programme
WNA World Nuclear Association
WSSD World Summit on Sustainable Development
WTO World Trade Organization
WWAP UN World Water Assessment Program
WWF World Wide Fund for Nature
 Introduction
1.1 Qualitative Changes
in the Evolution of the Earth
Planet Earth came into existence almost 4.6 bil-
lion years ago and survived numerous changes in
its history. These changes made the global Earth
system more and more complex, i.e. the system
developed. This development can be divided into
three different sections the length of which in
time shows great differences.
Section one, the abiotic system lasted for
almost 1 billion years. (It is not known exactly
when life occurred on Earth but on the basis of
fossils it is known that photosynthesising micro-
organisms, cyanobacteria lived on Earth as early
as 3.5 billion years ago.) The development of the
abiotic system included a series of physical and
chemical transformations. Most scientists con-
sider chemical changes more important as the
occurrence of more complex compounds resulted
in the appearance of organic molecules that could
become the basis of life. (Presenting the still
unsolved mystery of the origin of life on Earth is
out of the scope of this book but it seems clear
that every constituent of life was available on the
abiotic Earth.) The process resulting in com-
pounds with complex composition and structure
involving organic carbon formed out of simple
inorganic molecules is called chemical
evolution.
With the occurrence of living beings the sec-
ond, very lengthy period of the development of
© Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020
A. Kerényi, R. W. McIntosh, Sustainable Development in Changing Complex Earth Systems,
Sustainable Development Goals Series, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-21645-0_1
1
our planet started and could be called the living
Earth. This period is characterised by not only
the evolution of life but also the transformation
of the environment in the process of which living
creatures took an active part. Metabolism pro-
cesses changed primarily the composition of the
atmosphere. The ancient reductive atmosphere
almost completely void of free oxygen molecules
was transformed into an oxidant atmosphere as a
result of the metabolism of photosynthesising
living creatures over billions of years. As the
quantity of atmospheric oxygen increased the
ozone shield was formed making the survival of
life outside the seas and its spreading all over the
dry lands possible since the ozone layer absorbs
the part of ultraviolet radiation, which is most
dangerous to life. (Marine life before was pro-
tected from UV radiation by the water body.)
Increasing atmospheric oxygen also enabled the
development of respiration that provided much
better energy supply for living organisms than
fermentation resulting in the evolvement of
higher living creatures.
With the contribution of life, productive soil
was formed on dry lands resulting in favourable
conditions for the nutrient supply of plants. Life
was differentiated to an increasing number of
species. Occurrence and disappearance of spe-
cies over the history of the Earth meant not
always the dominance of the previous process.
Conditions on Earth were not always preferable
for life. Since the start of the Palaeozoic (570
million years ago) five phases of extinction have
1
2 1
occurred when the number of species was reduced
significantly and even at the end of the Permian
extinction threatened with the complete elimi-
nation of life on Earth. (Around 95% of marine
species became extinct.) Extinctions were
always associated with changes in the physical
(abiotic) environment due to global volcanism,
ocean closures (subduction) as a result of plate
movement, or impact events, etc. Life, however,
survived every change and it evolved and differ-
entiated with an accelerated pace as it wanted to
compensate losses.
Finally, extremely rich life was formed occu-
pying all areas on the surface of the Earth and
occurring even in the deepest ocean trenches and
in several kilometres deep in the Earth’s crust
carrying out intense metabolism with its environ-
ment. This living being—habitat interaction is so
close that living creatures together with their
habitat are regarded to be an individual sphere
called biosphere.
The third period in the development of the
environment on the Earth is associated with the
occurrence and socialisation of humanity. The
question is from when human activity causes
effects on the environment that would result in
global change. The excellent physicist Paul Davis
considers the appearance of Homo sapiens an
important event not only on Earth but in the
development of the Universe as well. In his opin-
ion via conscious beings the Universe got con-
sciousness as well (Davis 1998). The fact that
humans are able to understand the laws of the
Universe and on the basis of them humans are
able to alter the environment consciously is a
qualitative change in nature. The authors of the
present book consider the time when humanity
influenced the environment so that the develop-
ment of the global Earth system was affected. In
the opinion of the authors this started when
human civilizations appeared, i.e. humans have
changed the surface of the planet and influenced
global natural processes for 5000 years. This
time period is considered to be the third phase in
the development of the Earth system and the
authors call it the period of socialised Earth.
Regarding this period of 5000 years the last
100 years brought changes greater than those
Introduction
over the previous 4900 years. In the twentieth
century the number of people on Earth increased
fourfold while the quantity of produced goods
increased 16-fold while deterioration of natural
values became immense. Human activities trans-
formed our planet to a degree that some scientists
regard recent decades a new geological age called
Anthropocene (Crutzen and Stoermer 2000;
Steffen et al. 2011; Arias-Maldonado 2015).
Environmental pollution and damage are so
extensive that human health is increasingly
endangered while the overuse of natural resources
made the undisturbed supply for future genera-
tions doubtful. More and more people started to
consider the idea of the sustainable development
of the society.
1.2 Sustainable Development
The following—classic—definition is given in
the report of the World Committee on
Environment and Development of the UN
(WCED) led by G.H. Brundtland in 1987:
Sustainable development ensures
that it meets the needs of the present compromis-
ing the ability of future generations to meet their
own needs.
The above definition is explained in detail in
the report stating among others that in a world
where poverty and inequality are common eco-
nomic and other crises will always occur. Yet
poverty and inequality are widespread today
within both developed and less developed coun-
tries and between rich and poor countries. (And
indeed, we fight against economic and other
problems.) Poor countries have the right to
“develop”, i.e. to produce more goods, to provide
higher-level services, to free their citizens living
in abject poverty out of the bonds of poverty. This
interpretation of development identifies it with
growth. Almost all widespread economic param-
eters suggest growth as the measure of develop-
ment to people although in recent years even
public economy considers the importance of
quality parameters (e.g. GPI = Genuine Progress
Indicator, Talberth 2008, see later).
1.2 Sustainable Development
According to Wackernagel and Rees (1996),
debates regarding sustainable development partly
originated from the general fault that we cannot
separate real development from pure growth. The
authors of the present book fully agree with this
statement. Even Brundtland’s report is not com-
pletely consistent in interpreting and using devel-
opment. It recognises that the growing population
of the third world can be supplied with goods
only with increasing the quantity of products but
it also declares states that the classic economic
considerations for increasing production have to
be limited. To increase and limit at the same time
is of course impossible, regulations steering
towards smaller environmental impacts of pro-
duction, however, are possible.
The definition, however, contains an element
which neither the authors nor their critics consid-
ered in detail, namely, time. Regarding the defini-
tion, “future generations” suggest time for
sustainability. In other settings time also appears
in the definition of sustainable development, like
“Earth is a loan from our grandchildren”. These
phrases are nice, sonorous and clear for everyone
but are aimed for the wider public instead of sci-
entists as these can be interpreted in multiple
ways. In one case “future generations” suggest
that sustainable development has no time con-
straints while “a loan from our grandchildren”
extends over only two generations.
The most important elements of the decade long
debate associated with sustainable development
are summarised in the work of Mebratu (1998).
Over one or two decades, in many cases, the
term development disappeared from the term sus-
tainable development and not only in common
speech but also in professional analyses of high
standard the term sustainability became indepen-
dent with various scales. According to Williams
and Millington (2004),
sustainable development is a notoriously difficult, the global ecological system is going to collapse
slippery and elusive concept to pin down.
They analyse in detail the essence of human-­ cesses would be triggered in the living system of
focused weak sustainability and biosphere-­ the Earth causing the tragedy of humanity as our
focused strong sustainability perceptions. They life is fundamentally dependent on the biosphere.
consider the holistic view of geography to be
adequate to study the issue.
3
Constanza and Daly (1992) analyse the rela-
tionship between sustainable development and
natural capital and criticise economists who talk
about sustainable growth. According to them,
development is: improvement in organization
without size change.
The essence of weak sustainability (soft inter-
pretation of sustainable development) is that vari-
ous “capital types” (economic, human, natural,
cultural, etc.) may replace each other. In the opin-
ion of the authors, this idea is based on a funda-
mental mistake. According to certain economists,
natural capital losses can be compensated with
human capital of the same quantity or value. For
example, if one hectare of tropical rainforest is
cleared, man can plant a new forest in the place
making—according to the above concept—for-
estry sustainable. However, the quality of natural
and that of planted rainforests is different because
the biomass of planted forest reaches that of a
natural one later. The abundance of species in a
natural forest cannot be matched by that of a
planted one, and the same is true regarding the
diverse ecological functions.
The distorted view of the theory is even more
apparent when it states that other type of pro-
duced capital could also be used to replace
cleared woodlands (e.g. money on an account
equalling the financial value of the forest).
Those who support this idea have not recog-
nised yet that frequently the money of rich coun-
tries comes from exhausting the natural capital of
other countries, ultimately from the common
(natural) property of the world. The seeming eco-
nomic sustainability of Japan or the Netherlands
for example is dependent on a high grade of
import (Wackernagel and Rees 1996).
If we accept the above soft interpretation and
act accordingly in the future to sustain the society,
in time. Unfortunately, we do not know the thresh-
olds of our acts exceeding which irreversible pro-
According to a slightly modified interpreta-
tion of sustainability, the substitution of differ-
4 1
ent capital types is limited, and the most
important elements of natural capital cannot be
included in exchange. The authors consider this
interpretation slightly more reasonable, how-
ever, the key is the particular substitution of sus-
tainable measures. It is also fundamental to
know the basis on which the more important and
less important elements of natural capital are
identified.
On the contrary, in “strong sustainability” no
capital substitution is possible. This idea would
strictly limit the access of the society to natural
resources and the number and extent of conflicts
would be significantly increased especially in the
countries of the Third World.
Besides the above qualitative characterisation
of sustainability interpretations, public econo-
mists defined weak and strong sustainability
based on equations (Kerekes 2007). The Hicks–
Page–Hartwick–Solow approach makes it possi-
ble to give an equation to sustainability (Pearce
and Atkinson 1992).
Weak sustainability is expressed in the equa-
tion below
dK d ( K M + K H + K N )
= ≥0
dt dt
where KM = capital produced or reproducible by
people, KH = human capital, KN = natural capital,
K = all capital used by the society, t = time.
The equation can be interpreted that weak sus-
tainability occurs when the value of capital avail-
able for the society does not decrease in time.
Weak sustainability (Z) in the case of a par-
ticular country can be given as the equation below
S δM ⋅ K M δN ⋅ K N
Z= – –
Y Y Y ment of the society and its associated activities
where S = savings, Y = gross national product, δM
and δN = amortisation rates of human and natural
capital.
To achieve strong sustainability the value of
natural capital should not decrease in time while
Z is positive
δN ⋅ K N
≥ 0.
Y The fact that system elements (individual com-
Introduction
In the latter case, the substitution of capital ele-
ments is not possible.
(It has to be noted that the above relations are
logical but quantifying human and natural capi-
tal is very difficult therefore the application of the
equations in practice is doubtful.)
Other approaches were also established for the
quantitative description of sustainable develop-
ment. For example, Parris and Kates (2003) give
a comprehensive analysis on the elements of sus-
tainable development and also on the quantitative
indicators suitable for their description. The num-
ber of such indicators is high and although they
are useful, their overview is difficult.
Apart from the already discussed approaches,
a flow of terms like sustainable traffic, construc-
tion, mining and sustainable growth in public
economy—that is, however, debated by many—
appeared from scientific journals to scientific
informative journals.
Separation of the term sustainable develop-
ment based on other aspects has been also wide-
spread recently. According to this approach,
ecological (environmental), social and economic
sustainability can be identified.
In the opinion of the authors, based on sys-
tems thinking the three types of sustainability
cannot be achieved separately, independent of
each other because interactions between the
society and economy, the economy and the envi-
ronment and the society and the environment are
intense as can be seen in the following chapters.
As for methodology, internal and external inter-
actions of the society (the society and its natural
environment) can be studied separately but it
always has to be regarded in the global Earth sys-
tem (the society as a subsystem in it) eventually
and it has to be analysed whether the develop-
are in harmony with the natural operation of the
global Earth system. (This issue is discussed in
more detail in Chaps. 2 and 5.)
The existence of a system can be threatened in
two ways.
In the first case, the relationship between sys-
tem elements is disturbed (e.g. dominance of
positive feedbacks) so that the system collapses.
1.2 Sustainable Development
munities) may eliminate each other is a speciality
of the human society.
In the second case, the external conditions of
the operation of the system change so that they
are not capable of maintaining the system any
more: e.g. severe lack of raw material and
energy, lack of potable water, extreme changes
in the climate, etc.
As a result of the above, in the opinion of the
authors the following elements of sustainable
development have to be taken into account.
The term development has to be understood,
disturbances in the operation of the global soci-
ety as a system have to be discussed together with
the ways of avoiding such disturbances. The
effects and drawbacks of the human society on
the natural environment have to be studied as
well. Accordingly, sustainable development is
interpreted in the present book as follows.
Most frequently in natural sciences the essence
of development is identified in the increase of the
complexity of material systems. In the opinion of
the authors, this view is not enough regarding
society. Moreover, in certain cases, completely
different factors have to be considered when the
development of communities is compared. Such
factors are the following:
• Members and leaders of the more developed
society are able to think and decide their fate
in the long-term. (In the definition of WCED
the term “future generations” suggests at least
a century.)
• Reducing and completely eliminating poverty,
starvation, defencelessness make a society
more developed than those still characterised
by the above. In simple: a more balanced dis-
tribution of properties is typical of higher
ranked societies. Of course, for every member
of the society to live an acceptable lifestyle
developed economies are required.
• A society providing a healthier environment
for its citizens is more developed than those
that cannot provide such healthy environment
for its members.
• Providing “ecosystem services” (including the
maintenance of biodiversity) in the long-term
is also a fundamental condition of develop-
ment for the society. (The term “ecological
5
services” is an evidence of human conceit.
Living systems exist not to “serve” people. We
humans may exist because the biosphere sta-
bilises the operation of the Earth system and
we can utilise living beings as raw material,
food or energy resources for maintaining the
operation of the society. Despite the above
critics the term is also used in this book as it is
widely used in the literature (De Groot et al.
2009; Gómez-Baggethun et al. 2010;
Kontogianni et al. 2010; Haines-Young and
Potschin 2013; Scholte et al. 2015; European
Commission 2016).
• Policy aiming to avoid wars and other forms
of violence, providing safety for the members
of the society including legal safety are specif-
ics of developed societies.
• Increasing the potentials of adjusting to the
dangers of the natural environment (earth-
quakes, volcanism, etc.) is also typical of
more developed societies.
• Minimising the effects of the society on nature
by environmentally sound energy production,
economical raw material utilisation and waste
recycling in order to avoid disturbances in the
operation of natural systems and the draw-
backs of such disturbances on the society are
also involved among the criteria of developed
societies.
Development—in the opinion of the authors—
in the case of communities can be described not
only using the quantity parameter of complexity
but also or rather using the quality parameters
discussed above.
The above list of development and developed
state criteria also indicates the steps to be made in
order to eliminate disturbances in the operation
of the society: eliminating poverty, starvation and
defencelessness; more balanced distribution of
goods; avoiding violence, providing safety,
ensuring the adequate operation of the natural
environment, preventing natural hazards.
All this also mean that the development of the
society has to involve fundamental changes:
modified structure and operation, improved
human relations and improved relationship
among the natural environment and the society
and its members.
6 1
Sustainable development means that efforts
are made continuously to approach the above
ideal state. The primary question is whether
humanity will be able to change the whole soci-
ety in this way or not. Such a change would be
the greatest social change since written history is
started (since the occurrence of civilisation). It is
highly probable that this will not take place soon
therefore it is better to interpret sustainable
development as a bouquet of efforts aiming to
harmonise economic and social development
with the interests of humanity and the global
environment making the formation of a humane
society and the balanced operation of the com-
plex Earth system possible.
1.3  rom the Brundtland Report
F Development in Johannesburg 10 years later.
to Sustainable Development
The period of the 1970s could be characterised as
times when as a result of alerts from scientists,
politicians started to recognise the threats of
regional and global environmental processes
related to humanity. This was reflected by the UN
Conference on the Human Environment in
Stockholm in 1972. The location was selected
because sulphur dioxide pollution from industri-
alised areas in Europe caused strong acidification
in Scandinavia threatening especially the life of
lakes. The results of the conference include the
environment programme of the UN (UNEP) har-
monising environmental protection at a global
level since 1972 and initiating and managing
many international conventions and reports. The
conference made a mark in the history of the
world as international environmental institutes
were established in a series that in cooperation
with UNEP numerous international conventions
were composed.
In the 1980s intensifying environmental
changes (pollution of the atmosphere, hydro-
sphere and soils, international trade of dangerous
wastes, etc.) made it clear to politicians that the
majority of environmental problems can be
solved only in international collaboration.
Moreover, environmental problems are closely
related to production and consumption, and even
Introduction
to social processes. This resulted in the establish-
ment of the World Commission on Environment
and Development (director: Gro Harlem
Brundtland, Norwegian Prime Minister) in 1983.
The report of the Commission was completed by
1987 under the title “Our Common Future” and
was presented to the general assembly of the UN
in the same year. This report included the classic
definition of sustainable development presented
in Sect. 1.2. The extensive report gave a compre-
hensive analysis of the state of the world at that
time, processes of the global society, and the
relationship of humanity and nature. The
Brundtland Report provided the basis of the UN
Conference on Environment and Development in
Rio de Janeiro in 1992. It had also an effect on
the topics of the World Summit on Sustainable
Three international conventions on environmen-
tal protection were opened for signature in Rio
de Janeiro: Framework Convention on Climate
Change, Convention on Biological Diversity
(CBD) and the Convention to Combat
Desertification. A non-compulsory statement on
the principles of sustainable forest managements
was also accepted.
One specific of international conventions is
that they are formed by consensus of the member
states. Since the representatives of the member
states of UN rigidly stick to their national inter-
ests in most cases (mostly short-term interests),
international conventions are especially complex
to be completed (ratify). This process is espe-
cially slow in the case of environmental protec-
tion conventions as these frequently interfere
with economic interests. A fine example of this is
the international convention on the climate (offi-
cially: Framework Convention on Climate
Change). In 1997 the Kyoto Protocol was
achieved containing concrete targets (5.2%
decrease of greenhouse gases on average by
2012) for states that join the protocol which
became effective only in 2005. This is not satis-
factory, however, as the greatest CO2 emitters
(the USA, China) have not yet ratified the report
(i.e. they did not incorporate it into their own law
thus it is not compulsory for them) thus its real
effect on global emissions was rather moderate
1.3 From the Brundtland Report to Sustainable Development
achieving only a slowdown in the increase of
global emissions. It is not surprising that environ-
mental protection regulations are generally clas-
sified as soft law.
Most experts consider taking measures in
order to reduce anthropogenic climate change
increasingly urgent. Ratification of the Kyoto
Report in more countries is now not enough.
Even stricter emission limits are required. This
was targeted at the climate conference in Paris
(December 2015) where the wording of the new
convention was accepted in agreement and it
became effective rather soon (in 2016). The fact
that the two greatest greenhouse gas emitters,
China and the USA also joined the new conven-
tion boosted it significantly. However, the new
president of the latter announced in 2017 that the
USA would leave the convention.
In theory, international conventions that are
ratified are similarly obligatory law as national
law but their ignorance seems to be more fre-
quent than that of national rules.
What is the situation with sustainable devel-
opment in the twenty-first century? No specific
tasks for particular countries were listed in the
Plan of Implementation agreed by UN at the
World Summit on Sustainable Development at
Johannesburg in 2002.
The efficiency of international conventions
and agreements is moderate and the achieved
results until the turn of the millennium were few.
The situation is even worse if the rest of the fac-
tors of sustainable development (economic and
social conditions, institutes regulating those) are
regarded as well. Differences in development
and welfare among the countries of the world
hardly changed since the conference at Rio. In
order to mitigate the above the Plan of
Implementation of the World Summit on
Sustainable Development at Johannesburg con-
tained some programme points.
• Rich countries should have transferred 0.7% of
their national income to the developing coun-
tries as aid. This was not performed by any of
the countries although some of them paid some
support, however, less than the 0.7%.
7
• In order to add to the aids the establishment of
a solidarity fund was planned in order to meet
the demands of fighting against poverty to
which countries can transfer money volun-
tarily. This field shows even less success.
• Considering water supply and public health,
the aim was to reduce to half the number of
people without healthy drinking water sup-
ply and have to do without public health ser-
vices by 2015. The goal was partly achieved
as water supply was improved globally but
still 2.4 billion people have no access to
hygienic toilet.
• To enable poor countries to receive a share of
the benefits of globalisation. (As until the date
of the conference, mostly the disadvantages of
globalisation were received by them.) The sit-
uation of developing countries was improved
significantly and globalisation had its share in
it. Especially the development of China was
rapid and the economy of India grew signifi-
cantly as well. On the other hand, numerous
African countries did not have a share or only
in a small extent of the economic growth of
the last 10–15 years.
More or less parallel to the action plan of the
World Summit on Sustainable Development at
Johannesburg another, even more comprehensive
programme, the Millennium Development Goals
(MDG) was launched also by the UN. This pro-
gramme targets primarily the reduction of global
social problems by 2015 to which financial sup-
port was planned as well. Although the pro-
gramme did hardly reach any results initially, the
situation did improve somewhat as the target date
was approaching. According to evaluations from
UN forums most goals were implemented. This,
however, did not mean that the global social
problems were solved; they were only relieved.
In 2012 on another UN Conference on
Sustainable Development (UNCSD) another
document entitled “Future We Want” (FWW)
was accepted. The goals in this document did not
reflect comprehensive strategic views therefore
no significant results can be expected from them.
UN officials responsible for the global problems
8 1
of the society, however, considered that parallel,
sometimes overlapping documents and pro-
grammes that occasionally specify contradictory
goals should be harmonised in order to increase
efficiency. This harmonisation of development
and sustainability cooperation started in 2013.
The result of this process was the Transforming
Our World: the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable
Development (UN 2015) accepted in September
2015 (Transforming Our World 2030
henceforward).
In this there is the Sustainable Development
Goals document that specifies the tasks of
humanity until 2030. In case the 17 major goals
were performed by all member states, a truly sig-
nificant step would be taken by the global society
towards sustainable development.
1. Elimination of poverty in all its forms of
poverty everywhere.
2. Elimination of starvation, achieve food secu-
rity and improved nutrition and promote sus-
tainable agriculture.
3. Ensure healthy lives and promote well-being
for all at all ages.
4. Ensure inclusive and equitable quality edu-
cation and promote lifelong learning oppor-
tunities for all.
5. Achieve gender equality and empower all
women and girls.
6. Ensure availability and sustainable manage-
ment of water and sanitation for all.
7. Ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustain-
able and modern energy for all.
8. Promote sustained, inclusive and sustainable
economic growth, full and productive
employment and decent work for all.
9. Build resilient infrastructure, promote inclu-
sive and sustainable industrialisation and
foster innovation.
10. Reduce inequality within and among
countries.
11. Make cities and human settlements inclu-
sive, safe, resilient and sustainable.
12. Ensure sustainable consumption and produc-
tion patterns.
13. Take urgent action to combat climate change
and its impacts.
Introduction
14. Conserve and sustainably use the oceans,
seas and marine resources for sustainable
development.
15. Protect, restore and promote sustainable use
of terrestrial ecosystems, sustainably man-
age forests, combat desertification, and halt
and reverse land degradation and halt biodi-
versity loss.
16. Promote peaceful and inclusive societies for
sustainable development, provide access to
justice for all and build effective, account-
able and inclusive institutions at all levels.
17. Strengthen the means of implementation and
revitalise the global partnership for sustain-
able development.
The above goals and their possible implemen-
tation will be analysed in detail in this book after
discussing the operation of the global Earth sys-
tem including processes in the global society.
The relationship between humanity and the envi-
ronment and the development problems of the
human society are studied not only by politicians
but also by a number of scientific institutes as
well. Although scientists frequently draw similar
conclusions regarding a certain problem but still
recommend different solutions depending on
their different views of the issue, therefore it is
worth understanding such different concepts and
ideas regarding possible solutions. The primary
aim of the present book is to give a comprehen-
sive overview of the Earth including the basic
activities of the society and the results of such
activities. Sustainable development is presented
on the basis of the basic processes in nature and
in the society. Springer began the publication of a
series of books in 2018 to analyse Sustainable
Development Goals (SDGs) from as many
aspects as possible. Renowned authors discuss
the scientific results of research in certain fields
of sustainable development in detail in the
already published books and in those that will be
published in the very near future (Alibašić 2018;
Mal et al. 2018; Asgary 2019; Kogan 2019;
Kumar et al. 2019). This book focuses on the
interaction of social and natural systems.
Before discussing the possibilities and tasks
of the global realisation of sustainable develop-
1.3 From the Brundtland Report to Sustainable Development 9

ment let us take a look at the role of human soci-
ety in the complex Earth system. This is
important because we have to see, at least via
the most important elements, the operation of
the complex natural system in which people
were born: what natural processes pose a threat
and how the material and energy of planet Earth
shall be utilised in case people wish to live on it
for long.
For the above systems thinking would be
required therefore this book is continued with
systems thinking basics.
 Structure and Operation
of Systems, Models of the Global
Earth System
2.1 Systems Basics
Systems are defined in a number of ways in vari-
ous publications (Forrester 1968, 1971; Bennett
and Chorley 1978; Haggett 2001; László 2008a,
b). Taking general similarities from these defini-
tions the following can be given.
A system is a self-organised or artificially created
collective of system elements that are in structural
connection and close interaction with each other
and at certain conditions it operates and reacts to
external effects as a unified whole.
Subjects and phenomena of objective reality
are in some kind of interaction with each other.
This is mostly realised in material and energy
flow. (In some system types information flow
also takes place.) Interaction between the given
objects (system elements) can be strong, weak,
direct or indirect thus in a defined part of the
space system elements (rectangles in Fig. 2.1) in
closer connection (interaction) form natural units
or systems. For scientific study the elements of a
system are separated from other elements of the
surrounding environment in order to study their
specifics in more detail.
Since every subject, material and process can-
not be included in scientific research a part of real-
ity is separated from its environment—in theory
most of the time—for scientific or practical study.
Within the system delineated in this way opera-
tional and structural connections exist between
system elements. The system has a natural bound-
© Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020
A. Kerényi, R. W. McIntosh, Sustainable Development in Changing Complex Earth Systems,
Sustainable Development Goals Series, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-21645-0_2
2
ary which has to be followed by the theoretical
delineation. Along the boundary of natural sys-
tems material and energy flow can be detected
generally. Boundaries of artificial systems are
determined by humans who created the systems
and they control the material and energy flows
between the system and its environment as well.
Numerous units and elements are connected in
a system. These elements can be materials,
objects, structures, processes (even theoretical
processes), activities, conceptions (e.g. concep-
tion system of scientific theories, mental systems
will be discussed later). The elements of a system
are connected not randomly they are rather based
on each other or have interaction, functional con-
nections. The presence of functional connection
suggests that systems are not static; they operate
and change. Such movements involve material
and energy flows. In ecological and social systems
information flow is also fundamental although
such flows are realised via different information
carriers in the two system types. Maintaining
operation requires either some kind of an external
driving force or internal energy resource. For the
global system of the Earth the radiation energy of
the Sun as an external energy resource is decisive.
The energy of the internal heat of our planet also
has a significant role in the operation of the global
system; however, this significance is smaller than
that of the Sun (see later). The elements, units of a
system are placed according to a certain structural
order and form a greater unit.
11
12 2 Structure and Operation of Systems, Models of the Global Earth System
Fig. 2.1 General model of a simple system. Arrows between system elements (rectangles) indicate material and energy
flow
Even systems could be connected to each
other (this is typical for environmental systems)
and several systems may form a greater unit. This
is called complex system while the constituent
systems that cannot be divided further are called
simple systems. To a certain extent it is a question
of view what is considered a simple system. The
organism of a mammal, for example, is rather
complex and its operation is complicated but in
the organisational level above individuals it can-
not be regarded even a simple system as it is a
single constituent of a simple ecological system.
Even complex systems could be constituents
of an even more complex system forming multi-
ple complex systems (Fig. 2.2). The systems
forming complex and multiple complex systems
are called subsystems (rarely partial systems)
from a given study point of view. The same sys-
tem therefore—depending on the aim of the
given study—can be treated as either a complex
system or a subsystem. Not only the number of
elements increases from simple to multiple com-
plex systems but that of the connections between
them as well (Fig. 2.2). System hierarchy can be
detected in both nature and the society: e.g. from
simple ecological systems to the biosphere or in
the society from families through different social
groups to the nation.
According to the type of the elements compos-
ing a system, material and mental systems can be
identified.
Material systems are composed of physically,
chemically or biologically well-defined material
objects (system elements) and energy is required
for their operation. The higher the organisational
level of the material composing the system is the
greater the significance of the information flow
appearing besides material and energy flows will
be regarding the operation of the system. In liv-
ing organisms and also at the organisational level
higher than individuals (in ecological systems)
DNA is the most important information carrier.
Recent research revealed that other type of infor-
mation flow (communication) is also present
among living beings (especially among animals
belonging to one species and living in groups). In
social systems outside biological systems delib-
erately recorded information (views expressed
with concepts, figures, numbers) represent even
higher levels.
Based on the above, material systems can be
classified as follows according to the organisa-
tional level of the material:
• Physical systems,
• Chemical systems,
• Biological systems:
–– Organisational level lower than individuals
(living beings)
–– Organisational level higher than individu-
als (supraindividual) (associations of living
beings),
• Social systems (composed jointly by material
and mental systems).
Generally, there are no “clean” (single organ-
isational level) material systems on Earth. At first
glance we may consider the movements, changes
of the internal spheres of our planet as a “clean”
physical system, however, the plate tectonic sys-
tem formed as a result of the characteristics of the
internal systems is also similar. Studying the pro-
cesses in the geosphere in more detail, however,
chemical reactions, changes cannot be ignored.
The situation is even more complex in the bio-
sphere which operates via interactions of the
2.1 Systems Basics
Fig. 2.2 Hierarchy of systems, the structure of a multiple complex system
lithosphere, hydrosphere, atmosphere and life
with a complex network of physical, chemical
and biological system interactions. Considering
all these solely physical, chemical, etc. systems
can be created and thus studied only by humans
via deliberate design (e.g. for experiments).
Social systems are the most complex material
systems that include every other material system
as well but in their operation and control mental
systems have decisive roles.
It has already been mentioned that the ele-
ments of a system can be terms and even concep-
tions while processes can be conceptual processes
as well. In case a system is composed exclusively
13
such elements it would be a mental (conceptual)
system.
In mental systems information flow is deci-
sive. Systems belonging to this type are the prod-
ucts of the human brain even though information
flow and processing takes place using technical
devices.
Well-known mental systems, like scientific
theories in which certain conceptual elements
(terms, mathematical symbols, logical deduc-
tions, etc.), are connected in a strict order form-
ing a unified whole. Religions and the legal
system of a society can also be classified as men-
tal systems.
14 2 Structure and Operation of Systems, Models of the Global Earth System
The connection between mental and material
systems is rather close in the society.
Deciding, for example, whether a scientific
theory is true or not is mostly related to the prac-
tical activity of scientists (experiments, measure-
ments) then on the basis of the true theory its
utilisable elements are brought to the society that
organises its activities accordingly.
The practical consequences of religion sys-
tems could be even more well-known. Hundreds
of millions of people act according to religious
rituals based on a concept system and these acts
influence material systems: e.g. building
churches, idols (acquisition of stone and wood
material from the natural environment), millions
dipping in the holy water of Ganges River (releas-
ing billions of bacteria into the water), etc.
A legal regulation system can be regarded as a
mental system until it becomes authoritative.
Following this, the power administration of the
given society forces citizens to perform practical
acts. This interaction is illustrated by forming the
environmental act of a country, making it authori-
tative and executing it. In the above case chang-
ing the human acts impeding or disturbing the
natural operation of environmental systems can
be expected from the indirect effects of the men-
tal system performed via state administration.
Systems can also be classified according to
their relation to their environment. From this
aspect the fact whether there is material and
energy exchange between the given system and
its environment has to be studied. Material sys-
tems transporting and taking no material or
energy to and from its environment are called iso-
lated systems. Such systems can be formed prac-
tically only in laboratories and it is hard as
complete insulation is a great technical task.
The second type of systems take and release
energy but no material exchange can be observed.
Such systems are called closed systems that are
very rare on Earth (Fig. 2.3).
Naturally, open systems have material and
energy exchange with their environment; more-
over, in the case of ecological and social systems
information flow also takes place (Fig. 2.3).
Environmental systems on the Earth are therefore
open systems.
Differences between open and closed systems
seem to be clear and simple based on the above
definitions, in reality, however, making differ-
ence between the two types of systems is not
always so simple.
First of all, we have to step back to material
and energy flow. Let us imagine a city which is a
relatively complex material system: it is com-
posed of natural and artificial elements (soil,
plants, animals, humans, roads, buildings, indus-
trial factories, etc.). The city receives a vast
amount of energy via solar radiation (which is
partly radiated back into space) and many goods
are transported into the city each day while goods
produced in the city are transported into other cit-
ies. Material in- and outflow is clear and even
store have energy content. This city, however,
cannot exist for long (together with people living
there!) if no energy inflow appears from energy
sources that can be directly utilised for the opera-
tion of the city, like electricity, natural gas, petrol,
oil, etc.
Even though the energy arrives in the above
forms the city would not survive for long if all
transport of goods would be stopped and inhabit-
ants could not obtain food or water. This means
that the system will be closed in relation to mate-
rial essential regarding the operation of the sys-
tem. A town under blockade, for example, has to
be regarded practically a closed system until the
blockade is on.
In our opinion a system is practically closed
when the forms of energy or material essential
for the operation of the system cannot enter the
system (crossed arrows in Fig. 2.3) and thus their
operation is possible only for a limited time.
Closed social systems are somewhat different.
For example, North Korea is a closed (commu-
nist) system country. This does not mean com-
pletely missing material and energy (or even
information) flow but means their strong
limitation.
The global system of planet Earth is again dif-
ferent regarding openness. Regarding it a solely
physical system it is clearly an open system since
enormous amounts of material and energy arrives
to (solar radiation, cosmic radiation, cosmic dust,
meteorites) and leaves (energy radiated back to
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 CHAPTER XIV

T HERE had been a complete change in the officials of the oasis

since we had last been there. The new doctor—Wissa by name
—came round to call the day after my arrival. He was a Copt.
He belonged to a rich family, owning large landed estates in the
neighbourhood of Assiut.
He spoke English almost perfectly, for like so many Egyptians he
was a born linguist. He was, I believe, almost equally at home with
French and German. His people being very well-to-do had given him
an excellent education, part of which he had received in England and
other European countries.
Like all the Egyptians who have been educated in Europe, he was
an interesting mixture of East and West—and a very curious
compound it was. He talked most learnedly on the subject of
medicine, and appeared to have especially studied such local
diseases as “dengue” and “bilharsia.” Whenever I allowed him to do
so, he gave me most racy accounts of his life as a medical student in
Europe.
But he was an ardent treasure seeker, and his favourite topic of
conversation was occultism and magic, in all of which he had the
native Egyptian’s profound belief. He, the Senussi sheykh, Ahmed el
Mawhub, and the ’omda of Rashida, had formed a sort of partnership
to search for treasure, agreeing to divide equally between them
anything that they found.
He told me a good deal about the Mawhub family of the Senussi
zawia at Qasr Dakhl. He said they were entirely neglecting their
religious work in order to make money, and had then only got five
pupils left in the zawia at Qasr Dakhl, where formerly they had had
great numbers. Old Sheykh Mohammed el Mawhub, who was well
over seventy, had just started, he said, for Kufara with one servant
and three men, who had been sent from that oasis to fetch him.
Wissa professed to have collected information from some
unknown source of treasure that was hidden in many places in or
near the oasis. One place in which he said it was to be found was in
a stone temple eighteen hours’ journey to the west of the village of
Gedida. I afterwards met a native who said he had ridden out and
found this place, so probably it exists—the temple, not the treasure.
He was clearly badly bitten with the treasure-seeking mania.
He was, of course, the possessor of a “book of treasure.” In the
triangle between Mut, Masara and Ezbet Sheykh Mufta there is, he
said, an old brick building on a white stone foundation covered by a
dome, known as the Der el Arais—I saw this place afterwards. In it,
under the dome, the book said, is a staircase with seven flights of
steps, at the bottom of which is a passage seven cubits long. At the
end of the passage is a monk—painted, Wissa thought, on the wall.
The book said that there is an iron ring let into the floor near his feet,
and that by pulling the ring a door would be caused to appear—this
Wissa concluded to be a trap-door. Below is a flight of steps, which
the book said must be descended without fear. At the bottom of the
stair is a small chamber in which a king is buried.
The king has a gold ring with a stone in it on his finger. This is a
magic ring, and if it is immersed in water, which is then given to a
sick person, he will at once be cured, no matter what the nature of
his malady may be. In the chamber there is also a clock that goes for
ever, and in addition a sagia (wheel for raising water) that contains
the secret of Zerzura.
After I had got to know him better, he one day suggested that “as I
was looking for Zerzura,” we should join together to search for the
Der el Arais. He offered to let me keep the wonderful clock and
sagia, and any treasure we might find, if I would only let him have
the ring. With the help of that magic ring he felt certain that he would
become the greatest doctor in the world—yet this was a man who
had taken a diploma at the Qasr el ’Aini Hospital, spent a year at St.
Thomas’s, six months at the Rotunda, and another six studying
medicine between Paris and Geneva—and he wanted to cure his
patients with a magic ring!
On leaving Dakhla, as he was an unusually capable native doctor,
he was appointed to Luxor. Here he got into trouble. His sister
contracted plague, and Wissa, without notifying the authorities, as he
should have done, took her into his house, where he seems to have
neglected the most elementary sanitary precautions. The last I heard
of him he was, perhaps naturally, again in disgrace, and was on his
way to take up an appointment at Sollum, where delinquents of his
kind are sent when there is no room for them in the oases.
All this just shows what inestimable benefits an unusually
intelligent native will reap from a highly expensive European
education!
I had several times noticed in Mut a man dressed like a Tripolitan
Arab in a long woollen blanket, but had never been able to get a
good look at him, as he always avoided meeting me. On one
occasion, when he saw me approaching, he even turned back and
slunk round a corner to get out of my way.
Meeting Wissa one day, I asked him if he knew this Maghrabi
Arab. He replied that he was not really an Arab at all, but a native of
Smint, in Dakhla, and that he was a local magician he had often
spoken to me about, who only wore the Tripolitan dress for effect, as
the Western Arabs are noted as being the best sorcerers.
This man was a member of the Senussi—or as it was usually
expressed “he followed the Sheykh.” I found that he was staying with
Shekyh Senussi, the Clerk in Mut, and by a curious coincidence
Qway also happened to be living in the same house.
I gathered that Qway was in the position of an honoured guest, for
nearly every time I saw him he dilated upon Sheykh Senussi’s
kindness to him. At times he became almost sentimental on the
subject, declaring that he was like a brother to him. The reason for
Qway’s affection evidently being that his camel, of which he was so
proud, was being fed on the fat of the land and that he apparently
was getting unlimited tea. This rapprochement between Qway and
the Senussi, added to the rather secretive manner in which it was
going on, made me suspect that this lavish hospitality had some
ulterior object, though it was difficult to see what they were planning.
There were signs, too, that the Senussi were endeavouring to get
round my other men, for when I went one morning to look at the
camels, I saw an unpleasant-looking, pock-marked Arab skulking
about in the yard to which Abd er Rahman had moved them to
protect them from the wind—or the afrit. He kept dodging about
behind the beasts and making for the entrance to the yard, evidently
trying to avoid being seen. When I called him up and spoke to him,
he told me he had come from “the north,” and tried to give the
impression that he had recently left Assiut.
But on questioning Abd er Rahman about him afterwards I found
that he was one of Sheykh Ahmed’s men, who had come down from
his ezba in charge of two camels on some mysterious errand, the
nature of which was not quite clear. Abd er Rahman, when I told him
that he looked a disreputable scoundrel, was loud in his praise.
I managed to elicit one useful piece of information from him, as he
told me that, owing to most of the camels belonging to the Senussi
having gone with old Mawhub, on his journey to Kufara, they only
had three left in the oasis. This was rather welcome news, as I was
afraid that they might go out and tamper with the depots I was
intending to make in the desert.
 CHAPTER XV

A S soon as the camels had been got into good condition I sent
Qway, Abd er Rahman and Ibrahim off with the caravan loaded
with grain, which the two Sudanese were to deposit at Jebel el
Bayed, the hill we had reached at the end of our last journey the
season before.
Ibrahim had not been with me at all the previous season and, as
Abd er Rahman had never even been within sight of the hill, as I had
sent him back to Mut to bring out more water on the journey on
which I reached it, I arranged that Qway should ride with them as far
as the edge of the plateau, where he was to give Abd er Rahman
directions to take him to Jebel el Bayed. Here, however, he was to
leave the caravan and to ride west along the tableland and come
back and report what he had seen.
Abd er Rahman, following the directions given him by Qway,
easily found Jebel el Bayed, and left the grain to form the depot in
the neighbourhood. Qway himself rejoined the caravan on their way
back just before reaching Mut, so they all returned together.
Qway, of course, had done practically nothing. It was difficult to
see the best way of dealing with him. I could, of course, have
discharged him, but drastic remedies are seldom the best, and to
have done so would only have had the effect of playing straight into
the hands of the Senussi, as he was a magnificent guide and they
would have at once gained him as a wholehearted recruit. As he
unfortunately knew the whole of my plans, the better scheme
seemed to be to keep him with me and to tie him up in such a way
that he could do no harm. In the circumstances I thought it best to
send Sheykh Suleyman a letter, asking him to let me have Abdulla
and the best hagin he could find. This, at any rate, would ensure my
having a guide if Qway went wrong; and I hoped by stirring up a little
friction between him and Abdulla to make the latter keep an eye
upon his actions.
Soon after the return of the caravan the mamur left and I went
round to see him off. On the way I looked into the enclosure where
the camels were housed, and again caught Sheykh Ahmed’s pock-
marked camel-man hobnobbing with my men, and saw that he was
stabling his two camels in the neighbouring yard.
On reaching the mamur’s house I found him in a great state of
excitement. The post hagan, with whom he was going to travel, had
omitted, or forgotten, to bring any camels for his baggage. The
mamur was in a terrible state about this, saying that he might have to
send in to the Nile Valley for beasts before he could leave, and that
he was due there himself in six days.
This was an opportunity too good to be lost. I told him there were
two unusually fine camels in the yard next to my caravan, and
suggested that as a Government official going back to the Nile on
duty, he had the power to commandeer them and their drivers, and
suggested that he should do so. No petty native official can resist the
temptation to commandeer anything he has a right to in his district—
it is a relic of the old corrupt Turkish rule. The mamur jumped at the
idea and departed shortly after with a very sulky camel driver and
two of the finest camels owned by the Senussi. It was with great
relief that I saw the last of that pock-marked brute and his beasts, for
their departure left the Senussi with only one camel until in about a
month’s time, when old Mawhub was due to return from Kufara. I
went back to my rooms feeling I had done a good morning’s work,
and effectually prevented the Senussi from getting at the depot I was
making near Jebel el Bayed.
Abdulla, whom I had asked Sheykh Suleyman to send, did not
turn up on the day I had expected; but a day or two afterwards Nimr,
Sheykh Suleyman’s brother, arrived in Mut on some business and
came round to see me. Gorgeously arrayed with a revolver and
silver-mounted sword, he looked a typical bedawi—he certainly
behaved as one. He drank about a gallon of tea, ate half a pound of
Turkish Delight and the best part of a cake that Dahab had made,
and topped up, when I handed him a cigarette box for him to take
one, by taking a handful. He then left, declaring that he was very
mabsut (pleased) with me and promising to send Abdulla along as
soon as he could, and to see that he had a good hagin. As he went
downstairs he turned round, looking much amused, and asked how I
was getting on with Qway!
While dressing one morning I heard Qway below greeting some
old friend of his in the most cordial and affectionate manner; then I
heard him bring him upstairs and, looking through the window, saw
that Abdulla had arrived at last. Qway tapped at the door and, hardly
waiting for me to answer, entered, beaming with satisfaction and
apparently highly delighted at the new arrival—he was an admirable
actor.
Abdulla looked taller and more “feathery” than ever. With a native-
made straw hat on the back of his head and his slender waist tightly
girthed up with a leather strap, he looked almost girlish in his
slimness. But there was nothing very feminine about Abdulla—he
was wiry to the last degree.
He carried an excellent double-barrelled hammer, ejector gun,
broken in the small of the stock it is true, but with the fracture bound
round and round with tin plates and strongly lashed with wire. His
saddlery was irreproachable and hung round with the usual
earthenware jars and leather bags for his food supply.
His hagin was a powerful old male and looked up to any amount
of hard work. I told him to get up on his camel and show me his
paces. Abdulla swung one of his legs, which looked about four feet
long, over the cantle of his saddle and seated himself at once
straight in the seat. He kicked his camel in the ribs and at once got
him into a trot. The pace at which he made that beast move was
something of a revelation and augured well for his capacity as a
scout. He was certainly a very fine rider.
But when I made him take off the saddle I found, as is so often the
case with bedawin camels, the beast had a sore back. There was a
raw, festering place under the saddle on either side of the spine.
 As Abdulla had a hard job before him, I had to see his camel put
right before he started, so we went off to a new doctor, who had
come to take Wissa’s place, to buy some iodoform and cotton-wool,
and proceeded to doctor the hagin. But it was clear that it would take
some days to heal.
It made, however, no difference as it turned out. For the caravan
was unable to start as four ardebs[3] of barley that I had ordered
from Belat, never turned up. The barley question was becoming a
serious one; but by dint of sending the men round Mut from house to
house I managed to buy in small quantities, of a few pounds at a
time, an amount that when put together came to about three ardebs,
with which I had for the moment to be content.
The sores on Abdulla’s hagin having sufficiently healed, I packed
the whole caravan off again into the desert. Abd er Rahman and
Ibrahim as before were to carry stores out to the depot at Jebel el
Bayed. Abdulla’s work was to go on ahead of the caravan, following
directions to be given him by Abd er Rahman, as I was afraid Qway
might mislead him, till he reached Jebel el Bayed. There he was to
climb to the top of the hill, whence he could see the one I had
sighted in the distance the season before. This lay in practically the
same line from Mut as Jebel el Bayed itself. Having in this way got
its bearing, he was to go on to the farther hill, which he was also to
climb and make a note of anything that was to be seen from the
summit. He was then—provided the country ahead of him was not
inhabited—to go on again as far as he could along the same bearing
before returning to Dakhla.
I asked Abdulla how far out he thought he would be able to get. In
a matter-of-fact tone he said he thought he could go four, or perhaps
four and a half, days’ journey beyond Jebel el Bayed before he
turned back. As he would be alone in a strange desert, I doubted
somewhat if he would even reach Jebel el Bayed. But I did not know
Abdulla then.
There really was nothing much for Qway to do, but, as I thought it
better to send him off into the desert to keep him out of mischief, I
told him to ride west again along the plateau.
 Qway was rather subdued. Abdulla’s arrival had considerably
upset him, in spite of his efforts to disguise the fact. He objected
strongly to his going on ahead of the caravan to scout, but I declined
to alter the arrangement. So to keep Abdulla in his place, Qway, with
the usual high-handed manner of the Arabs, when dealing with
Sudanese, collared a water tin of his for his own use. On hearing of
this I went round to the camel-yard and gave Abdulla back his tin,
and pitched into Qway before all the men. Having thus sown a little
discord in the caravan, I told them they had to start in the morning.
I went round again later in the day and found all the Sudanese
having their heads shaved by the village barber and being cupped
on the back of their necks, preparatory for their journey. The cupping
they declared kept the blood from their heads and made them
strong!
This operation was performed by the barber, who made three or
four cuts at the base of the skull on either side of the spine, to which
he applied the wide end of a hollow cow’s horn, pressed this into the
flesh and then sucked hard at a small hole in the point of the horn,
afterwards spitting out the blood he had thus extracted. It seemed an
insanitary method.
The Sudanese were all extremely dark. Abd er Rahman and
Ibrahim even having black, or rather dark brown, patches on their
gums. Their tongues and the palms of their hands, however, showed
pink. Abdulla was even darker. He came up to my room the evening
after his cupping and declared that he was ill. There was nothing
whatever the matter with him, except that he wanted pills and eye-
drops because they were to be had for nothing. But I made a
pretence of examining him, took his temperature, felt his pulse, and
then told him to show me his tongue.
The result of my modest request was rather staggering. He shot
out about six inches of black leather, and I saw that not only his
tongue was almost black, but also his gums and the palms of his
hands as well. He was the most pronounced case of human
melanism I ever saw.
 Sofut.
Sand erosion producing sharp blades of rock very damaging to the soft feet of a
camel. (p. 87).

The Descent into Dakhla Oasis.

This cliff was several hundred feet in height, but the sand drifted against it and made
the descent easy. (p. 36).
 A Made Road.
Made roads are practically unknown in the desert. This one was notched out of the
side of the slope and led to the site of an unknown oasis, where treasure was said to
be hidden. (p. 205).
 CHAPTER XVI

T HE caravan, with Abd er Rahman and Ibrahim, returned, dead

beat, but safe. No less than four of the tanks they had taken out
filled with water had leaked and had had to be brought back. They
had had to race home by day and night marches all the way. But
they had got in all right—we had extraordinary luck in this way.
As Abdulla did not come in till two days later, I began to fear that
something had happened to him. He arrived with his camel in an
awful state. The sores on his back, which appeared to have healed
when he started, had broken out again and were very much worse
than when he first reached Mut.
His camel had gone so badly, he said, that he had not been able
to do half as much as he would have done if his mount had been in
good condition, and he was very vexed about it indeed. He had
followed Abd er Rahman’s directions and had found Jebel el Bayed
without difficulty. He had climbed to the top and seen the second hill
beyond. He had then gone on towards it—his camel going very badly
indeed—for a day and a half over easy desert, after which he had
crossed a belt of dunes that took about an hour to negotiate. Then
after another half-day he managed to reach the second hill and had
climbed to the top of it. To the south and south-west lay open desert
with no dunes, falling towards the west, dotted with hills and
stretching away as far as he could see. To the north he had been
able to see the cliff on the south of the plateau—the pass down
which we had descended into the “Valley of the Mist” being distinctly
visible, though it must have been a good hundred and twenty miles
away. After this he said he could do no more with such a wretched
camel, so he had been obliged to return. He was very apologetic
indeed for having done so little.
 It never seemed to occur to this simple Sudani that he had made
a most remarkable journey. Acting only on directions given him by
Abd er Rahman, he had gone off entirely alone, into an absolutely
waterless and barren desert, with which he was totally unacquainted,
with a very sore-backed camel and riding only on a baggage saddle
—his riding saddle had got broken before the start—but he had
covered in thirteen days a distance, as the crow flies, of nearly four
hundred miles, and more remarkable still had apologised for not
having been able to do more! He got some bakhshish that surprised
him—and greatly disgusted Qway who got none.
The fact that Abdulla saw the pass into the “Valley of the Mist”
from the top of the hill he reached—Jebel Abdulla as the men called
it—shows that the hill was of considerable height, for it, Jebel el
Bayed and the pass, lay in practically a straight line, and the desert
there was very level. The summit of the pass was about 1700 feet
high—the cliff itself being about 250 feet. But it could not be seen
from the top of Jebel el Bayed, which was 2150 feet, owing to a low
intervening rise in the ground. A simple diagram will show that, as it
was visible over this ridge from the top of Jebel Abdulla, the latter
must have been at least 2700 feet high.
Qway, of course, though excellently mounted, had done
practically nothing. There could be little doubt that he and the
Senussi were hand in glove. He was always asking leave to go to
places like Hindaw, Smint and Qalamun, where I knew the Senussi
had zawias, and the Sheykh el Afrit at Smint and Sheykh Senussi,
the poet in Mut, were his two intimate friends, and both of them
members of the Senussia.
The Senussi had always been a nuisance to travellers wanting to
go into their country. It was, however, difficult to see what they could
do. They would not, I thought, dare to do anything openly in the
oasis and, by getting rid of two out of their three camels I had rather
tied them up for the time being, so far as the desert was concerned.
So I went on with my preparations for our final journey with a fairly
easy mind, making the fatal mistake of underestimating my
opponents.
 First I engaged the local tinsmith to patch up six tanks that had
developed leaks. Then I sent Ibrahim round the town to see if he
could not find some more weapons. He returned with a neat little
battle axe, a spear and a six-foot gas-pipe gun with a flint-lock. All of
which I bought as curiosities.
We then went out and tried the gun. It shot, it is true, a few feet to
one side; but little trifles like that are nothing to a bedawi. The
general opinion of the men was that it was a very good gun indeed.
Abdulla said he had been in the camel corps and understood guns,
and undertook to put it right. He shut one eye and looked along the
barrel, then he rested the muzzle on the ground and stamped about
half-way down the barrel to bend it. He repeated this process several
times, then handed the gun back to Ibrahim, saying that he thought
he had got it straight.
I got up a shooting match between the three Sudanese to test it.
The target was a tin of bad meat at eighty yards, and Ibrahim with
the flint-lock gun, with his second shot, hit the tin and won the ten
piastres that I offered as a prize, beating Abd er Rahman and
Abdulla armed with Martini’s.
Then I set to work to buy some more barley for our journey and
difficulties at once arose. I sent Abd er Rahman and Abdulla with
some camels to Belat, but the ’omda told them he had sold the
whole of his grain; though they learnt in the oasis that he had not
been able to sell any and still had huge stores of it left.
Abd er Rahman began dropping ponderous hints about Qway, the
Senussi, “arrangements” and “intrigue”; but, as usual, declined to be
more definite. Qway, when I told him of the difficulty of procuring
grain, was sympathetic, but piously resigned. It was the will of Allah.
Certainly the ’omda of Belat had none left—he knew this as a fact. It
would be quite impossible, he said, to carry out my fifteen days’
journey with such a small quantity of grain and he thought the only
thing for me to do was to abandon the idea of it altogether.
I told him I had no intention of giving the journey up in any
circumstances. The only other plan he could think of was to buy the
grain from the Senussi at Qasr Dakhl. They had plenty—excellent
barley. I mentioned this to Dahab, who was extremely scornful,
declaring that they would not sell me any, or if they did, that it would
be poisoned, for he said it was well known that the Mawhubs
thoroughly understood medicine.
The new mamur arrived in due course. The previous one, ’Omar
Wahaby, had endeavoured to ayb me by not calling till I threatened
him. The new one went one better—he sent for me—and had to be
badly snubbed in consequence.
The natives of Egypt attach great importance to this kind of thing,
and I was glad to see that my treatment of the mamur caused a
great improvement in the attitude of the inhabitants of Mut towards
me, which had been anything but friendly before.
The mamur himself must have been considerably impressed. He
called and enquired about my men, and asked if I had any
complaints to make against them. I told him Qway was working very
badly and had got very lazy; so he said he thought, before I started,
that he had better speak to them privately. I knew I should hear from
my men what happened, so thinking it might have a good effect upon
Qway, I sent them round in the afternoon to the merkaz.
They returned looking very serious—Abd er Rahman in particular
seemed almost awed. I asked him what the mamur had said. He told
me he had taken down all their names and addresses, and then had
told them they must work their best for me, because, though he did
not quite know exactly who I was, I was clearly a very important
person indeed—all of which shows how very easily a fellah is
impressed by a little side!—il faut se faire valoir in dealing with a
native.
The mamur afterwards gave me his opinion of my men. His views
on Dahab were worth repeating. He told me he had questioned him
and come to the conclusion that he was honest, very honest—“In
fact,” he said, “he is almost stupid!”
The barley boycott began to assume rather alarming proportions.
The men could hear of no grain anywhere in the oasis, except at
Belat, Tenida and the Mawhubs, and it really looked as though I
should have to abandon my journey.
I could, of course, have tried to get some grain from Kharga, but it
would have taken over a week to fetch. It was doubtful, too, whether
I could have got as much as I wanted without going to the Nile Valley
for it, and that would have wasted a fortnight at least. I was at my
wits’ end to know what to do.
The Deus ex machina arrived in the form of the police officer—a
rather unusual shape for it to take in the oases. He came round one
afternoon to call. I was getting very bored with his conversation,
when he aroused my interest by saying he was sending some men
to get barley for the Government from the Senussi at Qasr Dakhl.
From the way in which he was always talking about money and
abusing the “avaricious” ’omdas, I felt pretty sure that he lost no
chance of turning an honest piastre; so finding that the price he was
going to pay was only seventy piastres the ardeb, I told him that I
was paying hundred and twenty, and that, if he bought an extra four
ardebs, I would take them off him at that price—and I omitted to
make any suggestion as to what should be done with the balance of
the purchase money.
As trading in Government stores is a criminal offence, I felt fairly
sure that he would not tell the Senussi for what purpose that extra
four ardebs was being bought.
The result of this transaction was that, in spite of the barley
boycott that the Senussi had engineered against me, I was
eventually able to start off again to explore the desert, whose secrets
they were so jealously guarding, with my camels literally staggering
under the weight of some really magnificent grain, bought, if they
had only known it, from the Senussi themselves!
The plan for the journey was as follows: we were to leave Dakhla
with every camel in the caravan, including the hagins, loaded to their
maximum carrying capacity with water-tanks and grain. At the end of
every day’s march a small depot was to be left, consisting of a pair of
the small tanks I had had made for the journey, and sufficient barley
for the camels and food for the men for a day’s supply. The reduction
in the weight of the baggage entailed by the making of these depots,
added to that of the water and grain consumed by the caravan on
the journey, I calculated would leave two camels free by the time that
we reached the five bushes.
Qway and Abdulla, who were to accompany the caravan up to this
point, were then to go on ahead of the caravan with their hagins
loaded with only enough water and grain to take them out to the
main depot at Jebel el Bayed. Here they were to renew their
supplies, go on for another day together and then separate. Qway
was to follow Abdulla’s tracks out to the second hill—Jebel Abdulla
as the men called it—that the Sudani had reached alone on his
scouting journey, and was to go on as much farther as he felt was
safe in the same direction, after which he was to retrace his steps
until he met the caravan coming out along the same route, bringing
out water and supplies for his relief. Abdulla’s instructions were to go
due south when he parted from Qway for two or, if possible, three
days. Then he was to strike off west till he cut Qway’s track, which
we should be following, and return upon it till he met the caravan,
which would then go on along the line of the old road we had found
to complete our fifteen days’ journey, and, if possible, push on till we
had got right across the desert into the French Sudan.
I was not expecting great results from Qway’s journey, but he
knew too much about our plans and was too useful a man in the
desert to make it advisable to leave him behind us in Dakhla, where
the Senussi might have made great use of him. Abdulla was well
armed, an experienced desert fighter, and, in spite of his “feathery”
appearance, was a man with whom it would not be safe to trifle. As
there was a considerable amount of friction between him and Qway,
owing to the Arab’s overbearing attitude towards the Sudanese in
general, I had little fear of their combining.
Abdulla, too, had special instructions to keep an eye on Qway,
and, as there was not much love lost between them, I felt sure he
would do so. While Abdulla was with him on the journey out to the
depot, and for a day beyond, Qway, I felt, would be powerless; while
if, after parting from him, he turned back to Jebel el Bayed to try and
get at the depot, he would have us on top of him, as we should get
there before him. When once the caravan had reached the depot we
should pick up all the water and grain it contained and take it along
with us following his tracks.
I had made him dependent on the caravan, by only giving him
about five days’ water for his own use, and none at all for his camel.
So long as he adhered to his programme he was quite safe, as we
could water his camel as soon as he rejoined us. But if he tried to
follow some plan of his own, he would at once run short of water and
find himself in trouble.
I felt that the precautions I had taken would effectually prevent
any attempt at foul play on his part. My whole scheme had been
thought out very carefully, and had provided, I thought, for every
possible contingency, but “the best laid plans o’ mice and men gang
aft agley”—especially when dealing with a Senussi guide.
 CHAPTER XVII

A T the start everything went well. Qway, it is true, though he did

his best to disguise the fact, was evidently greatly put out by my
having been able to produce so much barley. But the rest of the men
were in excellent spirits. Ibrahim, in particular, with the flint-lock gun
slung over his back, was as pleased with himself as any boy would
be when carrying his first gun. The camels, in spite of their heavy
loads, went so well that on the evening of the second day we
reached the bushes.
I found that a well which, without finding a trace of water, I had
dug the year before to a depth of thirty feet had silted up to more
than half its depth with sand. Here we cut what firewood we wanted,
and on the following morning Abdulla and Qway left the caravan and
went on ahead towards Jebel el Bayed.
I walked with them for a short distance as they left, to give them
final instructions. I told them that we should closely follow their
tracks. Having some experience of Qway’s sauntering ways when
scouting by himself, I told him that he must make his camel put her
best leg forward, and that if he did I would give him a big bakhshish
at the end of the journey.
He at once lost his temper. The camel was his, he said, and he
was not going to override her, and he should go at whatever pace he
choose. He was not working for me at all, but he was working for
Allah. My obvious retort, that in that case there was no necessity for
me to pay his wages, did not mend matters in the least, and he went
off in a towering rage. The Senussi teach their followers that every
moment of a man’s life should be devoted to the service of his
Creator; consequently, though he may be working for an earthly
master, he must first consider his duty towards Allah, as having the
first claim upon his services—a Jesuitical argument that obviously
puts great power into the hands of the Senussi sheykhs, who claim
to be the interpreters of the will of Allah.
Abd er Rahman, who had been watching this little scene from a
distance, looked very perturbed when I got back to the caravan.
Qway, he said, was feeling marbut (tied) and that was very bad,
because he was very cunning, and he prophesied that we should
have a very difficult journey.
The Arabs are naturally a most undisciplined race, who kick at
once at any kind of restraint. They are apt to get quite highfalutin on
the subject of their independence, and will tell you that they want to
be like the gazelle, at liberty to wander wherever they like, and to be
as free as the wind that blows across their desert wastes, and all that
kind of thing, and it makes them rather kittle cattle to handle.
Abd er Rahman was right; things began to go wrong almost at
once. The first two days after leaving Mut had been cool, but a
simum sprang up after we left the bushes and the day became
stiflingly hot. Towards midday the internal pressure, caused by the
expansion of the water and air in one of the tanks, restarted a leak
that had been mended, and the water began to trickle out of the
hole. We unloaded the camel and turned the tank round, so that the
leak was uppermost and the dripping stopped. But soon a leak
started in another of the mended tanks, and by the evening the water
in most of those I had with me was oozing out from at least one
point, and several of them leaked from two or more places.
When a tank had only sprung one leak, we were able to stop the
wastage by hanging it with the crack uppermost; but when more than
one was present, this was seldom possible. One of the tanks leaked
so badly that we took it in turns to hold a tin underneath it, and, in
that way, managed to save a considerable amount of water that we
poured into a gurba.
On arriving in camp, I took the leaks in hand and stopped them
with sealing-wax. This loss of water was a serious matter. Every
morning I measured out the day’s allowance for each man by means
of a small tin; in face of the leakage from the tanks, I thought it
advisable to cut down the allowance considerably.