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S TAT I S T I C S U S I N G S TATA

Engaging and accessible to students from a wide variety of mathematical

backgrounds, Statistics Using Stata combines the teaching of statistical concepts
with the acquisition of the popular Stata software package. It closely aligns Stata
commands with numerous examples based on real data, enabling students to
develop a deep understanding of statistics in a way that reflects statistical
practice. Capitalizing on the fact that Stata has both a menu-driven “point and
click” and program syntax interface, the text guides students effectively from the
comfortable “point and click” environment to the beginnings of statistical
programming. Its comprehensive coverage of essential topics gives instructors
flexibility in curriculum planning and provides students with more advanced
material to prepare them for future work. Online resources – including complete
solutions to exercises, PowerPoint slides, and Stata syntax (Do-files) for each
chapter – allow students to review independently and adapt codes to solve new
problems, reinforcing their programming skills.

Sharon Lawner Weinberg is Professor of Applied Statistics and Psychology

and former Vice Provost for Faculty Affairs at New York University. She has
authored numerous articles, books, and reports on statistical methods, statistical
education, and evaluation, as well as in applied disciplines, such as psychology,
education, and health. She is the recipient of several major grants, including a
recent grant from the Sloan Foundation to support her current work with NYU
colleagues to evaluate the New York City Gifted and Talented programs.

Sarah Knapp Abramowitz is Professor of Mathematics and Computer Science

at Drew University, where she is also Department Chair and Coordinator of
Statistics Instruction. She is the coauthor, with Sharon Lawner Weinberg, of
Statistics Using IBM SPSS: An Integrative Approach, Third Edition (Cambridge
University Press) and an Associate Editor of the Journal of Statistics Education.
STATISTICS USING STATA
An Integrative Approach
Sharon Lawner Weinberg
New York University

Sarah Knapp Abramowitz

Drew University
 32 Avenue of the Americas, New York NY 10013

Cambridge University Press is part of the University of Cambridge.

It furthers the University’s mission by disseminating knowledge in the pursuit of education,

learning, and research at the highest international levels of excellence.

www.cambridge.org

Information on this title: www.cambridge.org/9781107461185

© Sharon Lawner Weinberg and Sarah Knapp Abramowitz 2016

This publication is in copyright. Subject to statutory exception and to the provisions of relevant
collective licensing agreements, no reproduction of any part may take place without the written
permission of Cambridge University Press.

First published 2016

Printed in the United States of America by Sheridan Books, Inc.

A catalogue record for this publication is available from the British Library.

Library of Congress Cataloguing in Publication Data

Names: Weinberg, Sharon L. | Abramowitz, Sarah Knapp, 1967–

Title: Statistics using stata: an integrative approach / Sharon Lawner Weinberg, New York
University,

Sarah Knapp Abramowitz, Drew University.

Description: New York NY: Cambridge University Press, 2016. | Includes index.

Identifiers: LCCN 2016007888 | ISBN 9781107461185 (pbk.)

Subjects: LCSH: Mathematical statistics – Data processing. | Stata.

Classification: LCC QA276.4.W455 2016 | DDC 509.50285/53–dc23

LC record available at http://lccn.loc.gov/2016007888

 ISBN 978-1-107-46118-5 Paperback

Additional resources for this publication are at www.cambridge.org/Stats-Stata.

Cambridge University Press has no responsibility for the persistence or accuracy of URLs for external
or third-party Internet Web sites referred to in this publication and does not guarantee that any content
on such Web sites is, or will remain, accurate or appropriate.
To our families
 Contents
Preface
Acknowledgments

1 Introduction
The Role of the Computer in Data Analysis
Statistics: Descriptive and Inferential
Variables and Constants
The Measurement of Variables
Discrete and Continuous Variables
Setting a Context with Real Data
Exercises

2 Examining Univariate Distributions

Counting the Occurrence of Data Values
When Variables Are Measured at the Nominal Level
Frequency and Percent Distribution Tables
Bar Charts
Pie Charts
When Variables Are Measured at the Ordinal, Interval, or Ratio
Level
Frequency and Percent Distribution Tables
Stem-and-Leaf Displays
Histograms
Line Graphs
Describing the Shape of a Distribution
 Accumulating Data
Cumulative Percent Distributions
Ogive Curves
Percentile Ranks
Percentiles
Five-Number Summaries and Boxplots
Modifying the Appearance of Graphs
Summary of Graphical Selection
Summary of Stata Commands in Chapter 2
Exercises

3 Measures of Location, Spread, and Skewness

Characterizing the Location of a Distribution
The Mode
The Median
The Arithmetic Mean
Interpreting the Mean of a Dichotomous Variable
The Weighted Mean
Comparing the Mode, Median, and Mean
Characterizing the Spread of a Distribution
The Range and Interquartile Range
The Variance
The Standard Deviation
Characterizing the Skewness of a Distribution
Selecting Measures of Location and Spread
Applying What We Have Learned
Summary of Stata Commands in Chapter 3
Helpful Hints When Using Stata
Online Resources
 The Stata Command
Stata TIPS
Exercises

4 Reexpressing Variables
Linear and Nonlinear Transformations
Linear Transformations: Addition, Subtraction, Multiplication, and
Division
The Effect on the Shape of a Distribution
The Effect on Summary Statistics of a Distribution
Common Linear Transformations
Standard Scores
z-Scores
Using z-Scores to Detect Outliers
Using z-Scores to Compare Scores in Different Distributions
Relating z-Scores to Percentile Ranks
Nonlinear Transformations: Square Roots and Logarithms
Nonlinear Transformations: Ranking Variables
Other Transformations: Recoding and Combining Variables
Recoding Variables
Combining Variables
Data Management Fundamentals – the Do-File
Summary of Stata Commands in Chapter 4
Exercises

5 Exploring Relationships between Two Variables

When Both Variables Are at Least Interval-Leveled
Scatterplots
The Pearson Product Moment Correlation Coefficient
Interpreting the Pearson Correlation Coefficient
 Judging the Strength of the Linear Relationship,
The Correlation Scale Itself Is Ordinal,
Correlation Does Not Imply Causation,
The Effect of Linear Transformations,
Restriction of Range,
The Shape of the Underlying Distributions,
The Reliability of the Data,
When at Least One Variable Is Ordinal and the Other Is at Least
Ordinal: The Spearman Rank Correlation Coefficient
When at Least One Variable Is Dichotomous: Other Special Cases of
the Pearson Correlation Coefficient
The Point Biserial Correlation Coefficient: The Case of One at
Least Interval and One Dichotomous Variable
The Phi Coefficient: The Case of Two Dichotomous Variables
Other Visual Displays of Bivariate Relationships
Selection of Appropriate Statistic/Graph to Summarize a
Relationship
Summary of Stata Commands in Chapter 5
Exercises

6 Simple Linear Regression

The “Best-Fitting” Linear Equation
The Accuracy of Prediction Using the Linear Regression Model
The Standardized Regression Equation
R as a Measure of the Overall Fit of the Linear Regression Model
Simple Linear Regression When the Independent Variable Is
Dichotomous
Using r and R as Measures of Effect Size
Emphasizing the Importance of the Scatterplot
Summary of Stata Commands in Chapter 6
 Exercises

7 Probability Fundamentals
The Discrete Case
The Complement Rule of Probability
The Additive Rules of Probability
First Additive Rule of Probability
Second Additive Rule of Probability
The Multiplicative Rule of Probability
The Relationship between Independence and Mutual Exclusivity
Conditional Probability
The Law of Large Numbers
Exercises

8 Theoretical Probability Models

The Binomial Probability Model and Distribution
The Applicability of the Binomial Probability Model
The Normal Probability Model and Distribution
Using the Normal Distribution to Approximate the Binomial
Distribution
Summary of Chapter 8 Stata Commands
Exercises

9 The Role of Sampling in Inferential Statistics

Samples and Populations
Random Samples
Obtaining a Simple Random Sample
Sampling with and without Replacement
Sampling Distributions
Describing the Sampling Distribution of Means Empirically
 Describing the Sampling Distribution of Means Theoretically: The
Central Limit Theorem
Central Limit Theorem (CLT)
Estimators and BIAS
Summary of Chapter 9 Stata Commands
Exercises

10 Inferences Involving the Mean of a Single Population When σ Is

Known
Estimating the Population Mean, µ, When the Population Standard
Deviation, σ, Is Known
Interval Estimation
Relating the Length of a Confidence Interval, the Level of
Confidence, and the Sample Size
Hypothesis Testing
The Relationship between Hypothesis Testing and Interval
Estimation
Effect Size
Type II Error and the Concept of Power
Increasing the Level of Significance, α
Increasing the Effect Size, δ
Decreasing the Standard Error of the Mean,
Closing Remarks
Summary of Chapter 10 Stata Commands
Exercises

11 Inferences Involving the Mean When σ Is Not Known: One- and

Two-Sample Designs
Single Sample Designs When the Parameter of Interest Is the Mean
and σ Is Not Known
The t Distribution
 Degrees of Freedom for the One Sample t-Test
Violating the Assumption of a Normally Distributed Parent
Population in the One Sample t-Test
Confidence Intervals for the One Sample t-Test
Hypothesis Tests: The One Sample t-Test
Effect Size for the One Sample t-Test
Two Sample Designs When the Parameter of Interest Is µ, and σ Is
Not Known
Independent (or Unrelated) and Dependent (or Related) Samples
Independent Samples t-Test and Confidence Interval
The Assumptions of the Independent Samples t-Test
Effect Size for the Independent Samples t-Test
Paired Samples t-Test and Confidence Interval
The Assumptions of the Paired Samples t-Test
Effect Size for the Paired Samples t-Test
The Bootstrap
Summary
Summary of Chapter 11 Stata Commands
Exercises

12 Research Design: Introduction and Overview

Questions and Their Link to Descriptive, Relational, and Causal
Research Studies
The Need for a Good Measure of Our Construct, Weight
The Descriptive Study
From Descriptive to Relational Studies
From Relational to Causal Studies
The Gold Standard of Causal Studies: The True Experiment and
Random Assignment
Comparing Two Kidney Stone Treatments Using a Non-randomized
 Controlled Study
Including Blocking in a Research Design
Underscoring the Importance of Having a True Control Group Using
Randomization
Analytic Methods for Bolstering Claims of Causality from
Observational Data (Optional Reading)
Quasi-Experimental Designs
Threats to the Internal Validity of a Quasi-Experimental Design
Threats to the External Validity of a Quasi-Experimental Design
Threats to the Validity of a Study: Some Clarifications and Caveats
Threats to the Validity of a Study: Some Examples
Exercises

13 One-Way Analysis of Variance

The Disadvantage of Multiple t-Tests
The One-Way Analysis of Variance
A Graphical Illustration of the Role of Variance in Tests on Means
ANOVA as an Extension of the Independent Samples t-Test
Developing an Index of Separation for the Analysis of Variance
Carrying Out the ANOVA Computation
The Between Group Variance (MSB)
The Within Group Variance (MSW)
The Assumptions of the One-Way ANOVA
Testing the Equality of Population Means: The F-Ratio
How to Read the Tables and Use Stata Functions for the F-
Distribution
ANOVA Summary Table
Measuring the Effect Size
Post-Hoc Multiple Comparison Tests
 The Bonferroni Adjustment: Testing Planned Comparisons
The Bonferroni Tests on Multiple Measures
Summary of Stata Commands in Chapter 13
Exercises

14 Two-Way Analysis of Variance

The Two-Factor Design
The Concept of Interaction
The Hypotheses That Are Tested by a Two-Way Analysis of
Variance
Assumptions of the Two-Way Analysis of Variance
Balanced versus Unbalanced Factorial Designs
Partitioning the Total Sum of Squares
Using the F-Ratio to Test the Effects in Two-Way ANOVA
Carrying Out the Two-Way ANOVA Computation by Hand
Decomposing Score Deviations about the Grand Mean
Modeling Each Score as a Sum of Component Parts
Explaining the Interaction as a Joint (or Multiplicative) Effect
Measuring Effect Size
Fixed versus Random Factors
Post-hoc Multiple Comparison Tests
Summary of Steps to be Taken in a Two-Way ANOVA Procedure
Summary of Stata Commands in Chapter 14
Exercises

15 Correlation and Simple Regression as Inferential Techniques

The Bivariate Normal Distribution
Testing Whether the Population Pearson Product Moment Correlation
Equals Zero
Using a Confidence Interval to Estimate the Size of the Population
 Correlation Coefficient, ρ
Revisiting Simple Linear Regression for Prediction
Estimating the Population Standard Error of Prediction, σY|X
Testing the b-Weight for Statistical Significance
Explaining Simple Regression Using an Analysis of Variance
Framework
Measuring the Fit of the Overall Regression Equation: Using R and
R2
Relating R2 to σ2Y|X
Testing R2 for Statistical Significance
Estimating the True Population R2: The Adjusted R2
Exploring the Goodness of Fit of the Regression Equation: Using
Regression Diagnostics
Residual Plots: Evaluating the Assumptions Underlying
Regression
Detecting Influential Observations: Discrepancy and Leverage
Using Stata to Obtain Leverage
Using Stata to Obtain Discrepancy
Using Stata to Obtain Influence
Using Diagnostics to Evaluate the Ice Cream Sales Example
Using the Prediction Model to Predict Ice Cream Sales
Simple Regression When the Predictor is Dichotomous
Summary of Stata Commands in Chapter 15
Exercises

16 An Introduction to Multiple Regression

The Basic Equation with Two Predictors
Equations for b, β, and RY.12 When the Predictors Are Not Correlated
Equations for b, β, and RY.12 When the Predictors Are Correlated
 Summarizing and Expanding on Some Important Principles of
Multiple Regression
Testing the b-Weights for Statistical Significance
Assessing the Relative Importance of the Independent Variables in
the Equation
Measuring the Drop in R2 Directly: An Alternative to the Squared
Semipartial Correlation
Evaluating the Statistical Significance of the Change in R2
The b-Weight as a Partial Slope in Multiple Regression
Multiple Regression When One of the Two Independent Variables is
Dichotomous
The Concept of Interaction between Two Variables That Are at Least
Interval-Leveled
Testing the Statistical Significance of an Interaction Using Stata
Centering First-Order Effects to Achieve Meaningful Interpretations
of b-Weights
Understanding the Nature of a Statistically Significant Two-Way
Interaction
Interaction When One of the Independent Variables Is Dichotomous
and the Other Is Continuous
Summary of Stata Commands in Chapter 16
Exercises

17 Nonparametric Methods
Parametric versus Nonparametric Methods
Nonparametric Methods When the Dependent Variable Is at the
Nominal Level
The Chi-Square Distribution (χ2)
The Chi-Square Goodness-of-Fit Test
The Chi-Square Test of Independence
 Assumptions of the Chi-Square Test of Independence
Fisher’s Exact Test
Calculating the Fisher Exact Test by Hand Using the Hypergeometric
Distribution
Nonparametric Methods When the Dependent Variable Is Ordinal-
Leveled
Wilcoxon Sign Test
The Mann-Whitney U Test
The Kruskal-Wallis Analysis of Variance
Summary of Stata Commands in Chapter 17
Exercises

Appendix A Data Set Descriptions

Appendix B Stata .do Files and Data Sets in Stata Format
Appendix C Statistical Tables
Appendix D References
Appendix E Solutions
Index
 Preface
This text capitalizes on the widespread availability of software packages to
create a course of study that links good statistical practice to the analysis of real
data, and the many years of the authors’ experience teaching statistics to
undergraduate students at a liberal arts university and to graduate students at a
large research university from a variety of disciplines including education,
psychology, health, and policy analysis. Because of its versatility and power, our
software package of choice for this text is the popularly used Stata, which
provides both a menu-driven and command line approach to the analysis of data,
and, in so doing, facilitates the transition to a more advanced course of study in
statistics. Although the choice of software is different, the content and general
organization of the text derive from its sister text, now in its third edition,
Statistics Using IBM SPSS: An Integrative Approach, and as such, this text also
embraces and is motivated by several important guiding principles found in the
sister text.
First, and perhaps most important, we believe that a good data analytic plan
must serve to uncover the story behind the numbers, what the data tell us about
the phenomenon under study. To begin, a good data analyst must know his/her
data well and have confidence that it satisfies the underlying assumptions of the
statistical methods used. Accordingly, we emphasize the usefulness of
diagnostics in both graphical and statistical form to expose anomalous cases,
which might unduly influence results, and to help in the selection of appropriate
assumption-satisfying transformations so that ultimately we may have
confidence in our findings. We also emphasize the importance of using more
than one method of analysis to answer fully the question posed and
understanding potential bias in the estimation of population parameters.
Second, because we believe that data are central to the study of good
statistical practice, the textbook’s website contains several data sets used
throughout the text. Two are large sets of real data that we make repeated use of
in both worked-out examples and end-of-chapter exercises. One data set contains
forty-eight variables and five hundred cases from the education discipline; the
other contains forty-nine variables and nearly forty-five hundred cases from the
health discipline. By posing interesting questions about variables in these large,
real data sets (e.g., Is there a gender difference in eighth graders’ expected
income at age thirty?), we are able to employ a more meaningful and contextual
approach to the introduction of statistical methods and to engage students more
actively in the learning process. The repeated use of these data sets also
contributes to creating a more cohesive presentation of statistics; one that links
different methods of analysis to each other and avoids the perception that
statistics is an often-confusing array of so many separate and distinct methods of
analysis, with no bearing or relationship to one another.
Third, to facilitate the analysis of these data, and to provide students with a
platform for actively engaging in the learning process associated with what it
means to be a good researcher and data analyst, we have incorporated the latest
version of Stata (version 14), a popular statistical software package, into the
presentation of statistical material using a highly integrative approach that
reflects practice. Students learn Stata along with each new statistical method
covered, thereby allowing them to apply their newly-learned knowledge to the
real world of applications. In addition to demonstrating the use of Stata within
each chapter, all chapters have an associated .do-file, designed to allow students
not only to replicate all worked out examples within a chapter but also to
reproduce the figures embedded in a chapter, and to create their own.do-files by
extracting and modifying commands from them. Emphasizing data workflow
management throughout the text using the Stata.do-file allows students to begin
to appreciate one of the key ingredients to being a good researcher. Of course,
another key ingredient to being a good researcher is content knowledge, and
toward that end, we have included in the text a more comprehensive coverage of
essential topics in statistics not covered by other textbooks at the introductory
level, including robust methods of estimation based on resampling using the
bootstrap, regression to the mean, the weighted mean, and potential sources of
bias in the estimation of population parameters based on the analysis of data
from quasi-experimental designs, Simpson’s Paradox, counterfactuals, other
issues related to research design.
Fourth, in accordance with our belief that the result of a null hypothesis test
(to determine whether an effect is real or merely apparent) is only a means to an
end (to determine whether the effect is important or useful) rather than an end in
itself, we stress the need to evaluate the magnitude of an effect if it is deemed to
be real, and of drawing clear distinctions between statistically significant and
substantively significant results. Toward this end, we introduce the computation
of standardized measures of effect size as common practice following a
statistically significant result. Although we provide guidelines for evaluating, in
general, the magnitude of an effect, we encourage readers to think more
subjectively about the magnitude of an effect, bringing into the evaluation their
own knowledge and expertise in a particular area.
Finally, we believe that a key ingredient of an introductory statistics text is
a lively, clear, conceptual, yet rigorous approach. We emphasize conceptual
understanding through an exploration of both the mathematical principles
underlying statistical methods and real world applications. We use an easy-
going, informal style of writing that we have found gives readers the impression
that they are involved in a personal conversation with the authors. And we
sequence concepts with concern for student readiness, reintroducing topics in a
spiraling manner to provide reinforcement and promote the transfer of learning.
Another distinctive feature of this text is the inclusion of a large
bibliography of references to relevant books and journal articles, and many end-
of-chapter exercises with detailed answers on the textbook’s website. Along with
the earlier topics mentioned, the inclusion of linear and nonlinear
transformations, diagnostic tools for the analysis of model fit, tests of inference,
an in-depth discussion of interaction and its interpretation in both two-way
analysis of variance and multiple regression, and nonparametric statistics, the
text provides a highly comprehensive coverage of essential topics in introductory
statistics, and, in so doing, gives instructors flexibility in curriculum planning
and provides students with more advanced material for future work in statistics.
The book, consisting of seventeen chapters, is intended for use in a one- or
two-semester introductory applied statistics course for the behavioral, social, or
health sciences at either the graduate or undergraduate level, or as a reference
text as well. It is not intended for readers who wish to acquire a more theoretical
understanding of mathematical statistics. To offer another perspective, the book
may be described as one that begins with modern approaches to Exploratory
Data Analysis (EDA) and descriptive statistics, and then covers material similar
to what is found in an introductory mathematical statistics text, designed, for
example, for undergraduates in math and the physical sciences, but stripped of
calculus and linear algebra and grounded instead in data examples. Thus,
theoretical probability distributions, The Law of Large Numbers, sampling
distributions and The Central Limit Theorem are all covered, but in the context
of solving practical and interesting problems.
 Acknowledgments
This book has benefited from the many helpful comments of our New York
University and Drew University students, too numerous to mention by name,
and from the insights and suggestions of several colleagues. For their help, we
would like to thank (in alphabetical order) Chris Apelian, Ellie Buteau, Jennifer
Hill, Michael Karchmer, Steve Kass, Jon Kettenring, Linda Lesniak, Kathleen
Madden, Isaac Maddow-Zimet, Meghan McCormick, Joel Middleton, and Marc
Scott. Of course, any errors or shortcomings in the text remain the responsibility
of the authors.
 Chapter One
Introduction
◈

Welcome to the study of statistics! It has been our experience that many students
face the prospect of taking a course in statistics with a great deal of anxiety,
apprehension, and even dread. They fear not having the extensive mathematical
background that they assume is required, and they fear that the contents of such
a course will be irrelevant to their work in their fields of concentration.
Although it is true that an extensive mathematical background is required at
more advanced levels of statistical study, it is not required for the introductory
level of statistics presented in this book. Greater reliance is placed on the use of
the computer for calculation and graphical display so that we may focus on
issues of conceptual understanding and interpretation. Although hand
computation is deemphasized, we believe, nonetheless, that a basic mathematical
background – including the understanding of fractions, decimals, percentages,
signed (positive and negative) numbers, exponents, linear equations, and graphs
– is essential for an enhanced conceptual understanding of the material.
As for the issue of relevance, we have found that students better
comprehend the power and purpose of statistics when it is presented in the
context of a substantive problem with real data. In this information age, data are
available on a myriad of topics. Whether our interests are in health, education,
psychology, business, the environment, and so on, numerical data may be
accessed readily to address our questions of interest. The purpose of statistics is
to allow us to analyze these data to extract the information that they contain in a
meaningful way and to write a story about the numbers that is both compelling
and accurate.
Throughout this course of study we make use of a series of real data sets
that are located in the website for this book and may be accessed by clicking on
the Resources tab using the URL, www.cambridge.org/Stats-Stata. We will pose
relevant questions and learn the appropriate methods of analysis for answering
such questions. Students will learn that more than one statistic or method of
analysis typically is needed to address a question fully. Students also will learn
that a detailed description of the data, including possible anomalies, and an
ample characterization of results, are critical components of any data analytic
plan. Through this process we hope that this book will help students come to
view statistics as an integrated set of data analytic tools that when used together
in a meaningful way will serve to uncover the story contained in the numbers.
 The Role of the Computer in Data Analysis
From our own experience, we have found that the use of a statistics software
package to carry out computations and create graphs not only enables a greater
emphasis on conceptual understanding and interpretation but also allows
students to study statistics in a way that reflects statistical practice. We have
selected the latest version of Stata available to us at the time of writing, version
14, for use with this text. We have selected Stata because it is a well-established
comprehensive package with a robust technical support infrastructure that is
widely used by behavioral and social scientists. In addition, not only does Stata
include a menu-driven “point and click” interface, making it accessible to the
new user, but it also includes a command line or program syntax interface,
allowing students to be guided from the comfortable “point and click”
environment to the beginnings of statistical programming. Like MINITAB, JMP,
Data Desk, Systat, SPSS, and SPlus, Stata is powerful enough to handle the
analysis of large data sets quickly. By the end of the course, students will have
obtained a conceptual understanding of statistics as well as an applied, practical
skill in how to carry out statistical operations.
 Statistics: Descriptive and Inferential
The subject of statistics may be divided into two general branches: descriptive
and inferential. Descriptive statistics are used when the purpose of an
investigation is to describe the data that have been (or will be) collected.
Suppose, for example, that a third-grade elementary school teacher is interested
in determining the proportion of children who are firstborn in her class of thirty
children. In this case, the focus of the teacher’s question is her own class of
thirty children and she will be able to collect data on all of the students about
whom she would like to draw a conclusion. The data collection operation will
involve noting whether each child in the classroom is firstborn or not; the
statistical operations will involve counting the number who are, and dividing that
number by thirty, the total number of students in the class, to obtain the
proportion sought. Because the teacher is using statistical methods merely to
describe the data she collected, this is an example of descriptive statistics.
Suppose, by contrast, that the teacher is interested in determining the
proportion of children who are firstborn in all third-grade classes in the city
where she teaches. It is highly unlikely that she will be able to (or even want to)
collect the relevant data on all individuals about whom she would like to draw a
conclusion. She will probably have to limit the data collection to some randomly
selected smaller group and use inferential statistics to generalize to the larger
group the conclusions obtained from the smaller group. Inferential statistics are
used when the purpose of the research is not to describe the data that have been
collected but to generalize or make inferences based on it. The smaller group on
which she collects data is called the sample, whereas the larger group to whom
conclusions are generalized (or inferred), is called the population. In general,
two major factors influence the teacher’s confidence that what holds true for the
sample also holds true for the population at large. These two factors are the
method of sample selection and the size of the sample. Only when data are
collected on all individuals about whom a conclusion is to be drawn (when the
sample is the population and we are therefore in the realm of descriptive
statistics), can the conclusion be drawn with 100 percent certainty. Thus, one of
the major goals of inferential statistics is to assess the degree of certainty of
inferences when such inferences are drawn from sample data. Although this text
is divided roughly into two parts, the first on descriptive statistics and the second
on inferential statistics, the second part draws heavily on the first.
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Title: The binding of the Nile and the new Soudan

Author: Sidney Cornwallis Peel

Release date: October 5, 2023 [eBook #71808]

Language: English

Original publication: London: Edward Arnold, 1904

Credits: Galo Flordelis (This file was produced from images

generously made available by The Internet Archive)

*** START OF THE PROJECT GUTENBERG EBOOK THE

BINDING OF THE NILE AND THE NEW SOUDAN ***
THE BINDING OF THE NILE

AND

THE NEW SOUDAN

 Mehemet Ali,
from a painting in the
possession of the Oriental Club.
LONDON: EDWARD ARNOLD: 1904.
 THE

BINDING OF THE NILE

AND

THE NEW SOUDAN

BY THE HON.

SIDNEY PEEL
Late Fellow of Trinity College, Oxford
Author of ‘Trooper 8008 I.Y.’

LONDON
EDWARD ARNOLD
Publisher to H. M. India Office

1904
[All rights reserved]
 PR EFACE

I have tried to tell in outline the story of the regulation of the Nile and
some of its consequences. A rash project, perhaps, for one who is
not an engineer; but, then, this book is not written for engineers, and
politics enter largely into it.
I have had some special opportunities of observation, and I have
many friends to thank for the help which they have given me. In
particular I am much indebted to the Standard, whose special
correspondent in Egypt and the Soudan I had the good fortune to be
during a part of 1902-1903.
Anyone who wishes to gain a real acquaintance with the
principles and details of Egyptian Irrigation should read the
monumental and interesting work by Sir W. Willcocks, K.C.M.G., on
that subject, to which my indebtedness is large.
The standard work on the Soudan is not yet written. There is but
one man who combines the necessary knowledge, experience, and
attainments to do it, and he, fortunately for the Soudan, is—and will
be for a long time to come—too fully occupied with his arduous and
multifarious duties. I mean, of course, the present Governor-General,
Sir Reginald Wingate. No official of the Soudan Government, least of
all he, has leisure to write a book; but I sincerely hope that the
materials for it are steadily collecting.
S. P.
 C O NT ENT S

PART I

THE BINDING OF THE NILE

CHAPTER PAGE

I. THE NILE 3
II. BASIN IRRIGATION 13
III. PERENNIAL IRRIGATION 23
IV. THE CULTURE OF THE FIELDS 32
V. THE DELTA BARRAGE AND THE ENGLISH ENGINEERS 43
VI. THE CORVÉE 59
VII. RESERVOIR PRELIMINARIES 68
VIII. THE DAM AND THE NEW BARRAGES 81
IX. THE INAUGURATION OF THE RESERVOIR 91
X. BRITISH RULE IN EGYPT 101
XI. SCHEMES FOR THE FUTURE 111
XII. THE SUDD 124
XIII. THE UNITY OF NILELAND 134

PART II

THE NEW SOUDAN

XIV. THE PAST 139
XV. THE PAST—continued 159
XVI. THE NEW KHARTOUM 173
XVII. THE NEW SOUDAN 185
XVIII. JUSTICE AND SLAVERY 200
XIX. EDUCATION AND THE GORDON COLLEGE 214
XX. TRADE AND COMMERCE 226
XXI. TAXATION, REVENUE, AND EXPENDITURE 247
XXII. THE COST OF THE SOUDAN TO EGYPT 261
XXIII. CONCLUSION 270

INDEX 278

MAP OF EGYPT AND THE SOUDAN At end

PORTRAIT
MEHEMET ALI Frontispiece
(From the painting by T. Brigstock in the possession of the Oriental
Club.)
 PART I
THE BINDING OF THE NILE
 CHAPTER I

THE NILE

Far back in the world’s history a fracture of the earth’s crust took
place in the region which is now Egypt, and the sea filled the valley
as far as a point not much north of Assouan. Into this fiord ran
several rivers from the high ground east and west, bearing down with
them heaps of detritus, and forming small deltas like the plain of
Kom-Ombos. On the sea-bottom were laid down deposits of sand
and gravel, and then the land began to rise. Meantime the volcanic
movements of East Central Africa had shaped the country into its
present configuration, and the rivers which drained from the great
lakes and swamps of the south, and those which flowed down from
the high plateau on the east, combining their waters somewhere
about Khartoum, pushed their marvellous course northwards, and
began the creation of the fertile soil of Egypt. From this time onwards
the climatic conditions must have continued very much what they are
to-day. Changes, of course, there have been in the level of the land;
but the sea-valley had become a river-valley, and year by year the
annual flood increased the cultivable soil, and refreshed it with
moisture, just as it would be doing to-day if left untrammelled by the
devices of man.
Late in the history of the river-valley, but very early in the history
of humanity, this favoured strip of country became the home of men,
who doubtless cast their seed upon the slime left by the retreating
waters, and reaped their crops long before the dawn of history. It is
remarkable and characteristic of the conditions of the country that
tradition ascribes to the earliest King of Egypt, Menes, the first King
of the First Dynasty, the first attempts to regulate the flow of the river
—in other words, the first scheme of irrigation proper.
If it were possible to divert the river from its course, and effectually
to bar its way before it reached the boundaries of Egypt, what an
appalling catastrophe would follow—no mere disaster, but absolute
annihilation! On the coast lands of the Mediterranean a sparse
population might still eke out a miserable existence by storing the
scanty rainfall, but nowhere else. The very oases of the desert would
be dried up, and in a short time the shifting sands of the Sahara
would have overlaid the deposits in the river-valley, and buried out of
sight even the ruins of the past. The waters of the Nile are, and ever
have been, the sole giver of all life in Egypt.
Whoever finds himself in Cairo should lose no time in taking his
stand upon the bridge, and in reflecting upon the history of the water
that goes sliding and eddying beneath him, on the way to perform its
last duties among the cotton-fields of the delta. Some of it has been
travelling for three months from its sources beyond the Victoria
Nyanza, itself over 1,100 metres[1] above sea-level. From the
Victoria Nyanza it has passed down the Somerset Nile into the Albert
Nyanza, thence a five days’ journey to Lado, past Duffile and the
Fola Rapids. From Lado to Bor the fall is still rapid, but henceforward
as far as Khartoum, some 1,000 miles, the stream is on a very feeble
slope. Between Bor and the junction of the Ghazal River on the left
bank is the region of the sudd, floating masses of compressed
vegetation, which, if neglected entirely, block the course of the river.
Here, too, are the wide and desolate marshes, inhabited by myriads
of mosquitoes and that strange, melancholy bird, the whale-headed
stork (Balæniceps rex).
The Ghazal River contributes very little to the flow of the Nile,
owing to wide lagoons through which it passes, and which cause
great evaporation. The river then passes sharply to the right, and
sixty miles further on is joined by the Sobat from the eastern hills,
which in flood brings down a volume equal to that of the Nile, but
during summer contributes little or nothing. From the white sediment
brought down by the Sobat the White Nile derives its name and
colour. Hence it flows in a wide bed, a mile across on the average,
540 miles to its junction with the Blue Nile at Khartoum. Khartoum is
still 1,800 miles from the sea, and 390 metres above it. Two hundred
miles north of Khartoum, near to Berber, the Atbara River flows in,
and hence the Nile pursues its solitary way through the desert until,
after a circuitous bend round Dongola, it bursts through the rocky
defiles of Nubia, and emerges at Assouan into Egypt proper. Of the
distance between Khartoum and Assouan about 350 miles consist of
so-called cataracts, during which the total drop is 200 metres; about
750 miles are ordinary channel, with a total drop of nearly 100
metres.
Of all the affluents of the Nile, the Blue Nile (assisted by its
tributaries, the Rahad and the Dinder) and the Atbara have been of
infinitely the greatest importance to Egypt in the past. Not only do
their waters contribute the largest proportion of the annual flood, but
also down them comes the rich volcanic detritus swept from the
Abyssinian hills by the heavy summer rains, which composes the
red-brown silt so dear to the Egyptian cultivator. To understand the
system of irrigation in Egypt it is necessary to have a clear view of
the amount of water derived from the different sources at different
times of the year.
The great lakes and swamps of Uganda, acting as reservoirs,
prevent any great differences in the discharge of water above Lado.
At that place the low Nile discharge is about 500 cubic metres[2] per
second; but, in spite of the Ghazal River and the Sobat, so great is
the loss by diffusion in the marshes and by direct evaporation, that at
Khartoum the discharge is no more than 300 cubic metres per
second. At this time the Blue Nile is giving no more than 160 cubic
metres per second at Khartoum, and the Atbara is not running at all.
The loss between Khartoum and Assouan is about 50 cubic metres,
and consequently the amount of water passing Assouan in May in an
ordinary year is 410 cubic metres per second. This is the summer
supply of Egypt.
Meantime heavy rains have been falling about Lado and on the
Sobat. Towards April 15 the river begins to rise, the effect of which is
felt at Khartoum about May 20, and at Assouan about June 10. A
most curious phenomenon accompanies this preliminary increase—
the appearance of the ‘green’ water. It used to be thought that this
‘green’ water proceeded from the sudd region. During the previous
months the swamps in that country have been lying isolated and
stagnant under the burning tropical sun; their waters have become
polluted with decaying vegetable matter. When once more the rising
river overtops its banks, this fœtid water was supposed to be swept
out into the stream, and finally make its appearance in Egypt. But a
closer examination of the facts, which has only been possible since
the Soudan was re-opened, has caused this view to be abandoned.
The ‘green water’ is caused by the presence of an innumerable
number of microscopic algæ, which give it a very offensive taste and
smell. So far as can be ascertained, their origin is in the tributaries of
the Sobat above Nasser. The rains in April carry them out into the
White Nile, and thence they pass down to Nubia and Egypt. Under a
hot sun and in clear water they increase with amazing rapidity, and
sometimes they form a column 250 to 500 miles long. These weeds
go on growing, drying, and decaying, until the arrival of the turbid
flood-water, which at once puts an end to the whole process, as they
cannot survive except in clear water.
Horrible as the ‘green’ water is, its appearance is hailed with
delight by the Egyptian, for he knows that it is the forerunner of the
rushing waters of the real flood-time, and the first sign of the coming
close of the water-famine. By September 1 the Nile at Lado has
reached its maximum of 1,600 cubic metres. In the valley of the
Sobat the rains last till November, with the result that by September
15 or 20 the White Nile at Khartoum has attained its maximum
discharge of 4,500 cubic metres per second.
Meanwhile great things have been happening on the Blue Nile
and the Atbara. About July 5 the Blue Nile begins to rise, and the
flood comes down with considerable rapidity till it reaches its
maximum of 5,500 cubic metres per second on August 25. The
famous ‘red’ water reaches Assouan on July 15, and is seen ten
days later at Cairo. The flood on the Atbara would begin at nearly the
same time as on the Blue Nile, but for the fact that it spends a month
in saturating its own dry bed and the adjoining country. Once it
begins, however, about July 5, it comes very rapidly, and about
August 20 reaches its maximum, which is usually some 3,400 cubic
metres per second, but occasionally amounts to as much as 4,900.
 If these three contributors, the White Nile, the Blue Nile, and the
Atbara, all reached their maximum at the same time, the result in an
ordinary year would be a discharge at Assouan of some 13,000 to
14,000 cubic metres per second, and in occasional years a very
great deal more. But this is not the case. In an ordinary year the Nile
is at its lowest at Assouan at the end of May, discharging no more
than 410 cubic metres per second. After the arrival of the ‘green’
water it rises slowly till July 20. By that time the ‘red’ water is fairly on
the move, and the rise goes on with increased rapidity till the
maximum is reached, on September 5, of 10,000 cubic metres. But
both date and amount are liable to variation. If the White Nile flood is
a weak one, and the Atbara early, the maximum may be reached a
day or two earlier; but if the White Nile is very strong it will not be
attained until September 20. A late maximum, in other words, means
a good supply of water in the White Nile, and as the White Nile is the
principal source of supply after the flood is over, this fact is of
inestimable importance to Egypt. But occasionally, as in 1878, this is
carried to excess. In that year the White Nile flood was very late and
very high. The maximum was not reached till September 30, when
13,200 cubic metres per second were passing Assouan, with very
disastrous results in Egypt. All through the following summer the
supply was very good, and at its lowest, in May, was more than three
times as great as the average.[3]
Curiously enough, the preceding year offered a startling contrast.
It was the lowest Nile on record. The maximum was reached on
August 20, and was some 3,500 cubic metres below the average,
and in the following May the discharge at Assouan fell to 230 cubic
metres per second, as against the average 410.
By the end of October the Atbara has usually disappeared
altogether, and the Blue Nile falls very quickly after the middle of
September. The White Nile, however, owing to the regulating effect
of its natural reservoirs and the slackness of its current, is very much
more deliberate in its fall, and the results at Assouan are as follows
in a normal year: By the end of September the discharge has fallen
to 8,000 cubic metres per second; end of October to 5,000; end of
November to 3,000; end of December to 2,000; end of January to
1,500; end of March to 650; and end of May to 410.
In other countries the year is divided into seasons, reckoned
according to the position of the sun and the temperature, or
according to the rainfall. In Egypt the state of the all-important river is
the principal factor in determining the seasons. These are, first, the
months of the inundation, or Nili, August to November; second, the
winter, or Shitwi, December to March; and, third, the summer, or
Sefi, April to July, when the river is at its lowest. Nowhere else do the
actual seasons correspond with the nominal in a manner so regular
and unfailing. But, of course, within these limits there is a great
variation in the amounts of both the maximum and the minimum of
the volume of the Nile, and the dates at which they occur from year
to year. During the twenty-six years 1873-1898 the maximum flood at
Assouan varied from the exceptional height of 9·15 metres above
zero on the gauge to the equally exceptional 6·40 metres. And the
dates on which these maxima were attained varied from October 1 in
the first case to August 20 in the other. The dates on which the
volume of water passing through reached its minimum varied from
May 8 to June 24; while the worst lowest on record was ·71 metre
below zero, and the best was 1·88 metres above it. (Zero, it should
be explained, is the lowest level which the river would touch in an
average year.)
These figures are the result of the free and unimpeded flow of the
Nile. To us, with our wider field of observation, with our knowledge of
the sources of the Nile, and preciser information as to the conditions
prevailing in those distant countries, the behaviour of the river
seems, after all, but the resultant of many natural causes, and
capable of prediction, and even regulation. But to those who, living in
a country where rain was practically unknown, knew nothing of the
tropical lakes or the rain-shrouded hills of Abyssinia, and who merely
saw the great river issuing from the burning deserts of the south in
flood at the very time when other rivers were parched and dried, how
marvellous it must have seemed, and how inexplicable must have
appeared those occasional variations, threatening destruction, on
the one hand by excessive inundation, and on the other by famine
and drought! Few floods in the history of Egypt can have been higher
than that of 1878, and few lower than that of 1877, when 1,000,000
acres were left without water. But several great famines have been
recorded in the past. Perhaps the worst of these began in A.D. 1064.
A succession of low Niles took place, lasting for seven years, like the
seven lean kine of Pharaoh’s dream. Terrible results followed. Even
human flesh was eaten, and the Caliph’s family had to flee to Syria.
Similar disasters occurred in A.D. 1199.
Such extraordinary catastrophes are rare, but their possibility is
always present to the minds of those responsible for the government
and welfare of Egypt. We shall see what steps have been taken to
guard against them, and first we shall examine the different systems
of irrigation which have prevailed, and the nature of the services
which the water, whose variations we have described, is made to
perform before it finally reaches the sea.
 CHAPTER II
BASIN IRRIGATION

There are two kinds of irrigation in Egypt—basin and perennial

irrigation. Basin irrigation is the ancient and historical method of the
country. Tradition ascribes its invention to the first King of Egypt, and
it is obviously designed to take full advantage of the annual flood.
Practically the same as it was 7,000 years ago, it may be seen in
Upper Egypt to-day.
The cultivable land from Assouan to the Delta is, with the
exception of the Fayoum, that altogether remarkable province, a
narrow strip of country, varying in breadth from a few miles to
nothing at all, sometimes on both sides of the river, sometimes only
on one. Being of deltaic formation, the land is highest near the river,
and slopes away towards the desert. As the river flows from south to
north, there is, of course, also a general slope of the country in the
same direction. Earthen dykes are run at right angles to the river as
far as the desert, a dyke parallel to the river and close to its bank
connects them, and so a basin is formed, enclosed on the fourth side
by the desert. Thus the land is arranged in a series of terraces.
Usually these basins are arranged in a series, one basin draining
into its neighbour, the last of the series discharging back again into
the Nile. Sometimes a second dyke, parallel to the river, divides the
lower land near the desert from the higher; sometimes the
arrangement is still further complicated by other dykes, making
enclosures within the area of the original basin.
The object of the basins is to regulate the supply of the flood-
water. Each series of basins has special feeder canals to lead into
them. These are shallow, and have their bed about halfway between
the high and low level of the Nile. They are therefore dry in the winter
and summer, and only run during the flood. The heads of these
canals, where they take off from the Nile, remain closed by dams or
by masonry regulators till the silt-bearing flood is coming down in
sufficient strength. Then about August 10 or 12 the canals are
opened and the basins filled. The lowest basins in each series are
filled first, then the next lowest, and so on. In a low flood, as in 1877,
there is not enough muddy water to go round, and the upper basins
get no water at all; such lands are called ‘sharaki,’ and are exempt
from taxation. For forty days the flood-water stands on the land,
thoroughly soaking it and washing it, and at the same time
depositing its fertilizing silt. At the end of that time, through the
escape at the lower end of the series, the water is discharged back
again into the Nile. But if the flood is a very high one or very slow in
abating, the date at which the water can be discharged and the
basins dried has to be postponed. Fortunately, this seldom happens;
but when it does it has a doubly bad effect. The oversoaking is said
to engender worms, and also the ripening of the crops is postponed
to an unfavourable season of the year.
Against this particular evil there is no remedy, but since the British
occupation a great deal has been done to improve the system of
basin irrigation, and prevent a large amount of sharaki even in years
of low Nile. These measures consist in arrangements for distributing
the ‘red’ water more evenly over the whole system, and not allowing
the lower basins only to receive the full benefit, while the higher
merely receive ‘white’ water—i.e., water which has already deposited
its silt. Further, since any water is better than none, the systems of
basins have been so managed, where possible, that the water from
an upper system can be drained into a lower one, and thus make up
deficiencies, though with water of an inferior quality. More attention
has also been paid to the angle at which the feeder canals take off
from the Nile, and the slope on which they are laid, so as to provide
as much ‘red’ water as possible, while diminishing the amount of
silting up. The result of this work is seen in the diminution of the
sharaki lands year by year. In 1877 these amounted to nearly
1,000,000 acres, a loss of £1,000,000 in land-tax. During the next
ten years the average was 45,000 acres, an annual loss of some
£40,000. In 1888 the loss was £300,000, and the Egyptian
Government expended £800,000 in remedial works, which have had
an extraordinary effect. In 1899, when the Nile was exceptionally