Research/Science-Related Biases / Research Bias (56+) Research/Science-Related Biases / Research Bias (56+) 112 Mapped Links 1 Biases (SfA) by Subject Matter (14+) 1 Biases (SfA) by Type (all types) 1 C-PHIL > Epistemology (3854) 1 Irrationality T Issues - Psychology (5104) - TLNG-HU-EXP-jelz6s f6név/szerkezet/sz6kapesolat (5530+3 above)(2024-01 — ~020~CEN-RES/SCI (1/2550)(2023-06) Action Biases (doing instead of thinking) ~ Affective/Emotional/Motivational Biases Attentional Biases + Attributional Biases (50+ - Audio/Auditive Illusions - Business/Economy/Marketing/ Trade-Related Biases - Causality Biases Cognitive Biases/Heuristics / Inductive/Logical Fallacies / Irrational Heuristics + Culture-Related Biases ~ Curing/Minimizing/Reducing Biases Decision-Making / Planning Biases ~ Defence/Military/Security-Related Biases - Education/Testing-Related Biases (47+ + Egoist/Self-serving Biases ~ Everyday/General Biases ~ Expectational Biases + Extention-neglect-type biases - Fallacy/Fallacies of Relevance / Off-the Point Arguments — Health/Medicine-Related Biases/Misperceptions Inaction Biases (thinking instead of doing) - Journalism/Media-Related Biases « Jurisdiction/Law Enforcement-Related Biases + Locke's Madman — Mathematics /Statistics-Related Biases Memory Bias(es) ‘+ Misperceptions / False perceptions / Perceptional Biases (Duffy: falsely believing to know)(844} ‘- Moral BiasesPolitics-Related Biases - Primacy and Recency Effects - Probability Biases + Religion-Related Biases + SELF-CONFIRMATION (we are drawn to details that confirm our existing beliefs) ~ Self-fulfilling biases/prophecies Social/Interpersonal Biases/Illusions + TECH-TRAN - Transport/TravelRelated Biases 1 Actor/Observer Bias 1 alapsokasdq-valasztési tévedés/torzitas (2) 1 Alternative Histories/Paths 1 Anchoring (Heuristic) / Arbitrary Coherence / Focalism / Value Attribution (PSY, Kahneman. 2011, Mlodinow 2072, Duffy 2018) 1 Anthropocentric Thinking / Anthropocentrism 4 Anthropomorphism / Personification (attribution of human traits to gods or animals) 4 Argument from Fallacy / Bad Reason Fallacy / Fallacy Fallacy 1 Attrition Bias 1 Base-rate Fallacy/Neglect 1 Belief Bias 1 1 1 1 Binary Thinking Black Swan Blindness/Fallacy Chanelling bias () Choice-supportive bias (remembering chosen options as having been better than rejected options) + Chronology Bias 1 Clustering Illusion (Gilovich) 1 Confirmation Bias/Error / Confirming-evidence Trap (MASTER BIAS)(PSY Benson, Hogg, Wason, Dobelli 2013, Lotto 2017, Forman 2020) 1 Congruence Bias (PSY Wason 1 Curse of Knowledge 1 Declinism 1 Design Bias / Flawed Study Design 1 Dunning-Kruger effect / Impostor syndrome (the more you know, the less confident you're. likely to be, the less you know the more you overestimate your abilities)(HU:imposztor szindréma) 1 Duration neglect (remembering poorly the duration of past events) 1 Early Stopping of Trial 1 Expectation Bias (what you expect to improve will improve indeed, if not, the bigger the disappointment) 1 Experimenter's Bias / Observer-expectancy Effect 1 Fact-Checking 1 Fallacy of Silent Evidence (JURI/PHIL/PSY/SCI Taleb)(HU: rejtett okok / a nem nyilatkoz6k negligaldsa), Fallacy of Silent Evidence 1 False Continuum 1 False/Forced Choice/Dichotomy/Dilemma Fallacy / Bifurcation/Black-or-White/Either-or Fallacy / Fallacy of the False Alternative / Al-or-nothing Thinking / Polarized Thinking 1 Falsification / Invalidation 1 Falsification of History 1 Feature-positive Effect 1 Forecast Illusion1 Golem effect (lack of trust + lower expectations placed upon individuals either by ‘supervisors or the individual themselves lead to poorer performance by the individual) 1 Hindsight Bias / Retrofitting 1 Historian's Fallacy / Outcome Bias 4 Illusion of skill (In certain - some say in ALL - professions luck plays a bigger role than talent, skill and hard work in success, though the latter three are also necessary) 1 Illusory Correlation 1 Inclusion Bias 4 Instinct of Binary Thinking / Gap Instinct / The West and the Rest Fallacy (PSY, Rosling) 1 Interviewer Bias 1 Law of Parsimony / Occam's/Ockham’s Razor 1 Law of Small Numbers 1 Loss Aversion (Kahneman) 1 Ludic Fallacy 1 Measurement Bias 1 Non-response Bias 1 Ockham-féle takarékossagi/eayszertiségi elv/sztiré 1 Omission Bias 1 Ostrich Effect 1 Overconfidence Bias/Effect/Trap / Illogical Self-confidence 4 Plausibility Check(s) / Test(s) 4 Problem of Induction / Overgeneralization 1 Publication Bias 1 Pygmalion/Rosenthal effect (trust + higher expectations placed upon individuals either by supervisors or the individuals themselves lead to better performance by the individual)(1965) jeasonin: Recall Bias jeporting Bias {epresentativeness/Similarity Heuristic (PSY Kahneman-Tversky 1983) fetrospective Distortion / Illusion of Posterior Predictability (Taleb) Rosy retrospection / Memoria praeteritorum bonorum Sampling/Selection/Ascertainment Bias Self-selection Bias Semmelweis Effect/Reflex 1 Telescoping bias/effect (perceiving recent events as being more remote than they are and distant events in the past as being more recent than they are] 1 Theory-induced Blindness 1 Twaddle Tendency 1 Verification 4 Zeigarnic/Zeigarnik Effect DIzID | 0 BacklinksCurse of Knowledge when an otherwise knowledgeable person cannot see what lay people think, assume or can understand and how they would act hearing his arguments - HU: a tudas atka, beszukiilt szakbarbar szemlélet Curse of Knowledge 14 Mapped Links 1 Pinker, Steven (linguist, psychologist, social historian, rational humanist)(US) 1 C-PSY > Psychology of Communication / Psycholinguistics (200+) 1 Curses/Cursing / Spells 1 Issues - Psychology (510+) 1 Knowledge 1 Mentalizing 1 Research/Science-Related Biases / Research Bias (56+) 1 WHAT? 1 Yourbias.is (portal) = BIAS-EX (560+) ~ atudas tka Consistency bias (incorrectly remembering one’s past attitudes and behaviour as resembling present attitudes and behaviour) = Dunning-Kruger effect / Impostor syndrome (the more you know, the less confident you're likely to be, the less you know the more you overestimate your abilities)(HU:imposztor szindréma) = Hindsight Bias / Retrofitting 0 BacklinksClustering Illusion (Gilovich) Cognitive bias that occurs when people perceive patterns in random events that are actually just due to chance. The illusion is often seen when people look at sequences of events, such as coin flips or rolls of a dice, and see clusters or runs of similar outcomes, when in reality these are just random fluctuations. This can lead people to believe that there is a causal relationship between the events or that there is some underlying structure to the events, when in reality there is not. Mintalétés ott is, ahol nines minta. Az agyunk gy van megcsinélva, hogy keresse a intat a véletlenszeriiségben is. A kosdrlabdasok sorozatos pontszerzésére a "hot hand’ elmélet téptalaja. Minden dsszeeskiivés elmélet alapja. Clustering Illusion (Gilovich) 42 Mapped Links 1 Benson: Cognitive Bias Codex (2016) t Dobell: The Art of Thinking clearly (2011, 2013)(UK) 1 Gilovich: How We Know What Isn't So: The Fallability of Human Reason in Everyday Life (1991)(us) 1 Gilovich, Thomas (behavioral economist, social psychologist)(Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, us) 1 * COGNITIVE BIAS(ES)(PSY Kahneman-Tversky 1972)(US) 1 C-BUSI/ECON > Behavioral Economics (100+) 1 Causality Biases T ESTIMATING PROBABILITIES FOR THE FUTURE (to bring the future nearer we formulate expectations) 1 Expectational Biases 1 Gambling Related Biases/Fallacies 1 Illusion(s) (Plato, Descartes, Nietzsche, Camus, Einstein, Blackmore, Seth)1 Illusions (byN) 1 Issues - Psychology (510+) 1 Mathematics/Statistics-Related Biases 1 MENTAL ERROR(S) 1 Misperceptions / False perceptions / Perceptional Biases (Duffy: falsely believing to know)(84+) 1 Novella: Your Deceptive Mind (The Teaching Company: The Great Courses, 2012)(US) 1 Pattern Recognition (Pattern < Random Noise < Intuition) 1 PATTERN DETECTION/FINDING 1 Probability Biases 1 RANDOMNESS (Heisenberg, Hawking, Taleb, Mlodinow) 1 Research/Science-Related Biases / Research Bias (56+) + BIAS-EX (560+) ~ Anecdotal Evidence/Fallacy / Misleading Vividness ~ Anthropomorphism / Personification (attribution of human traits to gods or animals) = Beginner's Luck ~ Confabulation (production of fabricated/distorted/misinterpreted memories about oneself or the world without the conscious intention to deceive)(HU: képzelédés) = Epistemic fallacy / Intensional fallacy / Masked men fallacy (licit use of Leibniz's law which states that, if one object has a certain property, while another object does not have the same property, the two objects cannot be identical) ‘= Exposure Bias / Illusion of Validity / Illusory Truth Effect / Reiteration Effect - Frequency/Recency illusion / Baader-Meinhof phenomenon (recently experienced phenomena crop up suddenly everywehere) ‘- Gambler's/Lottery/Monte Carlo fallacy (DE: Spielerfehischluss)(the belief in fate's equalizing hand, eg in roulette after many blacks a red should follow, 1,2,3,4,5 is less probabale than 3, 14, 56, 67, 897) ~ Illusion of control (if you believe you can alter a situation it will effectively help you forget that you can't) = Illusory Correlation = Insensitivity to sample size + Klaszterezési illizi6 = Neglect of Probability ~ Pareidolia (responding to a stimulus, usually an image of a face / animal or a sound, by perceiving a familiar pattern where none exists) ‘= Recency (of Information) Bias = Texas sharpshooter fallacy / Post hoc Analysis 4 Clustering is an inherent characteristic of randomness 1 Hot-hand / Hot-streak fallacy (believing that a person who experiences success with a random event has a greater probability of further success in additional attempts)1 Streak(s) 0 Backlinks Falsification / Invalidation Falsification / Invalidation 38 Mapped Links 1 COGNITION / THINKING (ALL)(600+) 1 ARGUMENTATION / REASONING / PROCESSING / REFLEXION / THINKING / COGNITION 1 Assessment / Checking / Control / Evaluation / Examination / Monitoring / Questioning / Testing 1 C- PHIL > Epistemology (385+) 1 Checking Cognitive Processes/Processing Control(s) (noun/verb) Creative Problem Solving Critical Thinking Curing/Minimizing/Reducing Biases Deductive Reasoning / Deduction (PH, Aristotle) Defeating/Overcoming/Suppressing Biases Dialectic Thinking Examination F- BRAIN / Functions/Functioning of the Brain / Mental Acts/Functi Falsify (verb) Inductive Reasoning / Induction (PHI Aristotle)1 Internal Processes of Cognition 1 Monitoring 1 REASONING / CHAIN OF LOGIC / CHAIN OF THOUGHTS / LOGICAL THINKING 1 Research/Science-Related Biases / Research Bias (56+) 1 Research/Scientific Method(s)/Methodology 1 System 2 (SLOW & COOL) / The THINKER’, the "Lazy Controller’ (PSY Kahneman > Mlodinow) 1 Testing = TENG-EN-OW-ALL (3/7750)(2023-11) = “TENG-EN-EXP-ALL (1/9550)(2023-11) ‘= “ENG-EN-OW-NOUN-ALL (5400#)(2023-12) + “LNG-EN-OW-NOUN-COUNT (0/1300) ~~ ~022~CEN-ALL (41/20400)(2024-01) — ACT/BEHAV-HUMAN (byN)(1480+)(2023-06) = Lying = Plausibility Check(s) / Test(s) = Verification 4 Falsification of History 1 Feature-positive Effect 1 Lack of Falsification/Verification/Control Experiments 1 Rejection 1 Self-Correction 0 BacklinksConfirmation Bias/Error / Confirming- evidence Trap (MASTER BIAS)(PSY Benson, Hogg, Wason, Dobelli 2013, Lotto 2017, Forman 2020) The tendency to favor/focus on information/evidence/sources that confirms/supports one's existing beliefs or values, and to discount information that contradicts them. People gravitate towards what they want to hear - they neglect disconfirming evidence and try to align the outcomes of their research to their own beliefs, resulting in biased selection of facts, arguments and references. Contradicting facts even strenghten the bias. With age, our accumulated confirmation biases may spiral us into believing ever stronger in what we believe. Olyan informéciék, vélemények tendenciézus keresése és idézése, amelyek sajét elfogult véleményiinket tmasztjk ald. Minden (f6leg kormanyon levé) pértpolitikus és szévivé (sok esetben tjsdgiré) napi énként vallalt feladata. Confirmation Bias/Error / Confirming-evidence Trap (MASTER BIAS)(PSY Benson, Hogg, Wason, Dobelli 2013, Lotto 2017, Forman 2020) 133 Mapped Links COGNITION / THINKING (ALL)(600+) Social Philosophy (ALL) Benson: Cognitive Bias Codex (2016) Dobell: The Art of Thinking clearly (2011, 2013)(UK) Lotto: Deviate - The Science of Seeing Differently (2017)(UK) Ross: Everyday Bias (2014)(US) 1 Taleb: The Black Swan (2007)(US)1 Hogg, Michael A. (social psychologist)(UK>US) 1 Lotto, Beau (artist, epistemologist, neuroscientist, psychologist, TED speaker)(UK) 1 Novella, Steven (clinical neurologist, epistemologist, philosopher of science. psychologist)(US) 1 Taleb, Nassim Nicholas (options trader, historian, mathematician, statistician, philosopher, social psychologist, polymath)(Lebanon, US)(158+) 1 + Wason, Peter (cognitive psychologist)(UK) 1 * COGNITIVE BIAS(ES)(PSY Kahneman-Tversky 1972)(US) 1 * Good Bad/Evil (Philosophical/Religious) Faultline 1 1. LfE - Behaviors/Hindrances/Problems 1 2.0. BIASES AND OTHER ERRORS TO AVOID 1 3.0. BIASES AND OTHER ERRORS TO AVOID 1 ARGUMENTATION / REASONING / PROCESSING / REFLEXION / THINKING / COGNITION 1 Attribution of Relationship Biases (attribution of link/relationship to pairs/groups of phenomena)(35+) 1 Attributional Biases (50+) 1 Avoidance of cognitive dissonance / internal psychological consistency Business/Economy/Marketing/Trade-Related Biases C- PSY > Decision Making (270+) C/CDE/CHU-SCI-TERMS - Psychology (106+) Causality Biases Cognitive Biases/Heuristics / Inductive/Logical Fallacies / Irrational Heuristics, Cognitive Closure/Laziness (not wanting to know) Compartmentalization (of Self) Confirmation Confirming/Confirmatory Evidence Desire for Being ConsistentDesire for Self-esteem Desire for Simplicity / Avoidance of Complexity Desire/Need for Control Diversity Fatigue Dopamine-related Causes of Biases Egoist/Self-serving Biases Everyday/General Biases Expert / Empty Suit Problem Issues - Psychology (510+) Judgment Biases / Errors of Judgment (HU: balitélet) Knowledge Mathematics/Statistics-Related Biases Neuroscience NOEM'S BIASES + EXAMPLES OF HER BIASES + RECOMMENDATIONS NOTICING CHANGE (we notice when sg has changed) Novella: Your Deceptive Mind (The Teaching Company: The Great Courses, 2012)(US) Platonicity (PHIL/PSY Taleb)(HU: valésagt6l val6 elrugaszkodottsag) Politics-Related Biases Psychology of Religion Religion-Related Biases Research/Science-Related Biases / Research Bias (56+) Selection SELF-CONFIRMATION (we are drawn to details that confirm our existing beliefs) 1 Self-Uncertainty 1 Self's Mental Representation(s) (sense > perception > consciousness > concept/image) of Oneself (Fichte, Rogers) 1 Tendency/Tendencies1 Yourbias.is (portal) — “ENG-HU-EXP-jelz6s fénév/szerkezet/szokapcsolat (5530+3 above)(2024-01) = ~0020~LNG-EN-sentence (1/1600)(2024-01) = OLNGS-FUN-ALL (byN)(5200#) = BIAS-EX (560+) 2. LfE- Consequences ‘~ Anticipatory Rationalization/Reconstruction = attribticiés torzités(ok) = Availability Bias/Heuristic / Hammer-is-looking-for-nail Syndrome (PSY Kahneman/Tversky > Dobelli) ~ Backfire effect / Belief/Irrational Escalation/Perseverance / Escalation of Commitment ~ Barnum/Forer Effect / Astrologer's Certainty (Forer 1948) ~ Black Swan Blindness/Fallacy Choice-supportive bias (remembering chosen options as having been better than rejected options) ‘= Conservatism or Regressive Bias = Consistency bias (incorrectly remembering one's past attitudes and behaviour as resembling present attitudes and behaviour) = Continued influence effect (when a piece of already corrected-discredited information continues to influence our thinking) ‘= Disconfirming Data = Expectation Bias (what you expect to improve will improve indeed, if not, the bigger the disappointment) = Experimenter's Bias / Observer-expectancy Effect = FACTUALITY / OBJECTIVITY / OBJECTIVENESS ~ Feature-positive Effect — Hawthorne effect / Observer effect (when people modify their behavior in response to their awareness of being observed) «= Illusion of Attention / inattentional Blindness (PSY Simons 2011) = Inconsistency discounting (disregard information that is not consistent with previous items) = Introspection fallacy/illusion (when people wrongly think they have direct insight into the origins of their mental states, while treating others’ introspections as unreliable)(MASTER BIAS) ‘= Lotto: "Seeing is 10% eyes + 90 % brain.” — News bias/illusion (Information < Knowledge < Insight < Wisdom. News is to the mind what ‘sugar is to the body: pleasant and destructive) — Not-invented-here (NIH) syndrome (we are drunk on our own ideas, reject similar projects/results of others) ‘Omission Bias Overconfidence Bias/Effect/Trap / Illogical Self-confidence = Post-purchase rationalzation / Buyer's Stockholm syndrome = Reciprocity / Reciprocal Favour (Cialdini) + Salience Bias/effect / Perceptual Salience ~ Self-selection Bias — Semmelweis Effect/Reflex = Social Proof (Cialdini) Sunk Cost Bias/Fallacy/Trap / Concorde Effect = Survivorship Bias = Swimmer's Body Illusion ‘= Theory of Cognitive Dissonance (PSY Festinger 1962) = torzitds‘= Wishful Thinking 1 Actively looking for discomforting evidence 1 Arbitrary Conclusion/Inference / Jumping/Leaping to Conclusions (JTC) 1 Belief Bias 4 Cartel(s) of Interpretation / Digital Tribe(s) / Epistemic/Opinion Silo(s) 1 Cherry-picking 4 Cold Reading 4 Congruence Bias (PSY Wason) 1 Conspiracy Theory/Theories 1 Data analysts and advisors/consultants are afraid to tell the truth, 1 Disliking/Hating Tendency Bias 1 Eulogy/Eulogies 4 Illusion of Truth Effect 4 Illusory Correlation 1 Itewill-get-worse-before-it-gets-better fallacy (eg promising bright future for endurance of hardship, having no clue what's going on) 1 Lack of Falsification/Verification/Control Experiments 1 Linking/Loving Tendency Bias 4 Listening Bias/Gap 4 Lunar effect / Toilet seat effect (Confirmation Bias) 1 megerésitési torzitas 1 Ostrich Effect 1 Personal Validation Bias 4 Political Affiliation/Conviction 4 RELIGION (as sorting criterion) 4 Sampling/Selection/Ascertainment Bias 1 Selective Attention/Perception 1 1 1 1 4 1 1 1 1 Self-Appraisal (HU: énbecsillés, pozitiv énkép) Self-Consciousness (Fichte) Self-esteem Sense of Self (Fichte, Schopenhauer, Rogers, Duffy, Lotto, Seth) Stick to your guns! The statistics confirm my long-held belief that confirmation bias is best. ‘Theory-induced Blindness Try to overcome your cognitive Undercollect Disconfirming Data ses as much as possible 0 BacklinksAttrition Bias scientific version of survivorship bias eg not counting non-respondents in results while their non-response is related to the content of the trial Attrition Bias 6 Mapped Links T Issues - Psychology (510+) 1 Mathematics/Statistics-Related Biases 1 Research/Science-Related Biases / Research Bias (56+) 1 Survivorship Bias + BIAS-EX (560+) Base-rate Fallacy/Neglect 0 BacklinksFallacy of Silent Evidence (JURI/PHIL/PSY/SCI Taleb) (HU: rejtett okok / a nem nyilatkoz6k negligalasa), Fallacy of Silent Evidence the error of not accounting for the undocumented, for the testimony of the non-achievers Fallacy of Silent Evidence (JURI/PHIL/PSY/SCI Taleb) (HU: rejtett okok / a nem nyilatkoz6k negligalasa), Fallacy of Silent Evidence 16 Mapped Links 1 COGNITION / THINKING (ALL)(600+) 1 Social Philosophy (ALL) 1 Taleb: The Black Swan (2007)(US) 1 Taleb, Nassim Nicholas (options trader, historian, mathematician, statistician, philosopher, social psychologist, polymath)(Lebanon, US)(158+) 1 ARGUMENTATION / REASONING / PROCESSING / REFLEXION / THINKING / COGNITION 1 C-PHIL > Epistemology (385+) 1 Cognitive Biases/Heuristics / Inductive/Logical Fallacies / Irrational Heuristics 1 FACTUALITY / OBJECTIVITY / OBJECTIVENESS, 1 Fallacies (byN) (72+) 1 Issues - Psychology (510+) 1 Rationalism / Rationality / Reason 1 Research/Science-Related Biases / Research Bias (56+)= BIAS-EX (560+) Feature-positive Effect + Survivorship Bias 1 Dobelli: “Positive advice (do X) is more appealing than negative (don't) but negative advice is more practical/useful.” 0 Backlinks Fact-Checking Fact-Checking 20 Mapped Links 1 COGNITION / THINKING (ALL)(600+) 1 FSS Csepeli, Gyéray (psychosociologist/szociélpszicholégus, former actor, TV journalist, politician)(ELTE, BP, HU) 1 Checking 1 Curing/Minimizing/Reducing Biases 1 Decision-Making / Planning Biases 1 Defeating/Overcoming/Suppressing Biases 1 Politics-Related Biases 1 Research/Science-Related Biases / Research Bias (56+) 1 System 2 (SLOW & COOL) / The "THINKER’, the "Lazy Controller’ (PSY Kahneman > Mlodinow) + Plausibility Check(s) / Test(s) 41.1, What do you mean by ...? 4 1.3. Could you rephrase what you just said? 1 2.3. Is that always the case? 1-10 Rules of Thumb of Fact-Checking 1 Correctness 1 Deepfake / Deep Fake / Deepfakery 4 Disinformation4 Misinformation 4 Plausibilty 1 Validity 0 Backlinks Law of Small Numbers judge the group on the basis of a small sample of individuals (HU: kis szamok torvénye?) Law of Small Numbers 23 Mapped Links 1 Dobelli: The Art of Thinking clearly (2011, 2013)(UK) 1 Kahneman, Daniel (behavioral economist, social psychologist, Nobel laureate)(Hebrew University, Israel, Princeton University, US) 1 Business/Economy/Marketing/Trade-Related Biases 1 C-BUSI/ECON > Behavioral Economics (100+) 1 C-PSY > Psychology of Communication / Psycholinguistics (200+) Tt ESTIMATING PROBABILITIES FOR THE FUTURE (to bring the future nearer we formulate expectations) 1 Everyday/General Biases 1 Issues - Psychology (510+) 1 Journalism/Media-Related Biases 1 Mathematics/Statistics-Related Biases 1 Probability Biases 1 Problem of Induction / Overgeneralization 1 Research/Science-Related Biases / Research Bias (56+)1 Sampling/Selection/Ascertainment Bias + BIAS-EX (560+) + Devil's Horn Effect + Exponential-growth blindness Halo Effect / Transfer Fallacy kis szémok torvénye Problem with averages (A statistician is a person who lays with his head in an oven and his feet in a freezer, saying ’On the average, | feel comfortable" « Representativeness/Similarity Heuristic (PSY Kahneman-Tversky 1983) ‘= Will Rogers phenomenon / Stage migration 1 GR: "Beware of small, doubling numbers. They show more of the future than high numbers.” 0 Backlinks Historian's Fallacy / Outcome Bias judging a decision solely by the outcome - using present perspectives Historian's Fallacy / Outcome Bias 58 Mapped Links 1 MEMORY EDITING/RETRIEVAL (to bring the past nearer we invent, select, edit and reinforce ‘our memories) 1 COGNITION / THINKING (ALL)(600+) 1 Benson: Cognitive Bias Codex (2016) t Dobell: The Art of Thinking clearly (2011, 2013)(UK) 1 ARGUMENTATION / REASONING / PROCESSING / REFLEXION / THINKING / COGNITION 1 Attribution of Relationship Biases (attribution of link/relationship to pairs/groups of phenomena)(35+) 1 Attributional Biases (50+) 1 Biases Related to the Distance in Time / Distortion/Projection of Time (15+)t Biases Related To Time (29+) 1 Business/Economy/Marketing/Trade-Related Biases 1 C-PSY > Decision Making (270+) 1 C-PSY > Psychology of Communication / Psycholinguistics (200+) 1 Causality Biases 1 Cognitive Biases/Heuristics / Inductive/Logical Fallacies / Irrational Heuristics 1 Collective/Historical Memory 1 Defence/Military/Security Related Biases 1 Education/Testing-Related Biases (47+) 1 Fallacies (byN) (72+) 1 Issues - Psychology (510+) 1 Journalism/Media-Related Biases 1 Memory Bias(es) 1 PRESENT (PSY) / Perception of the Present Time 1 PROJECTION IN TIME (we project our mindset/assumptions into the past and future) 1 Research/Science-Related Biases / Research Bias (56+) 1 TIME (PSY) / MENTAL TIME ‘= BIAS-EX (560+) «= attribuiciés torzitas(ok) = Conspiracy Theory/Theories = Declinism = Duration neglect (remembering poorly the duration of past events) = Hindsight Bias / Retrofitting = Illusion of skill (In certain - some say in ALL - professions luck plays a bigger role than talent, skill and hard work in success, though the latter three are also necessary) «Illusory Correlation + Impact Bias ‘= Moral luck = Ostrich Effect Pessimism Bias = Planning Fallacy / Inside View = Pro:innovation bias = Projection Bias = Restraint bias (overestimate one's ability to control impulsive behavior) ‘= Retrospective Distortion / Illusion of Posterior Predictability (Taleb)= Rosy retrospection / Memoria praeteritorum bonorum ~ Self-consistency bias ~ Telescoping bias/effect (perceiving recent events as being more remote than they are and distant events in the past as being more recent than they are) = Time-saving when travelling bias/fallacy (misestimation of time that can be saved/lost when increasing/decreasing speed within a low or high speed range) = t6rténész esapda? / minden j6, ha a vége j6 heurisztika? 1 Blaming the surgeon for every death 1 CT about the advance-knowledge of Pear! Harbor (US) 1 Falsification of History 1 GR: "Hacsak nem vagyunk egy adott korszakot kutaté térténészek, rélatasunk a mitra logaritmikus / forditottan exponencidlis: nemesak jéval kevesebbet tudunk minden régebbi idérétegréi, de tudasunk megbizhatoséga is exponencidlisan csékken.” 1 Harari: ‘Civilisations are retrospective constructs, human groups define themselves best by the changes they have initiated (not by ethnie, race or statehood)." (by sense) 1 History repeats itself (EN) 1 Komoréczy: "The past does not exist. it is constructed by humans who live now.” 4 Lessing: 'History, having no objective validity, amounts to a mythic construct imposed on an unknowable reality, in order to give it some semblance of meaning 1 Most successful chimpanzee investor 1 The ends justify the means (?) 1 Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it (EN) 0 Backlinks Belief Bias special case of motivated reasoning: if a conclusion supports your existing beliefs, you'll rationalize anything to support them Egy hamis kovetkeztetés elfogadasa, csak azért mert plauzibilis. A valéség belekeverése a logikba. Ok-okozat feltételezése korrelals dllitasok k6z6tt. ‘A tizenéves ldnyok ambiciézusak. A tizenéves lanyok szorgalmasak. ERGO: A tizenéves lanyok azért szorgalmasak, mert ambiciézusak Az allitas lehet igaz a valéségban, de nem igaz, mint kvetkeztetés. Belief Bias 36 Mapped Links 1 COGNITION / THINKING (ALL)(600+) 1 Conclusion / Consequence / Inference (ALL)1 Benson: Cognitive Bias Codex (2016) 1 2.0. BIASES AND OTHER ERRORS TO AVOID 1 3.0. BIASES AND OTHER ERRORS TO AVOID 1 Ambiguity Aversion/Bias/Effect / Well-travelled Road Effect 1 Attribution of Relationship Biases (attribution of link/relationship to pairs/groups of phenomena)(35+) 1 Attributional Biases (50+) T AVOIDANCE OF AMBIGUITY (we favor simple options and complete information over complex/ambiguous options) 1 Causality Biases 1 Cognitive Biases/Heuristics / Inductive/Logical Fallacies / Irrational Heuristics t Conclusion(s) 1 Confirmation Bias/Error / Confirming-evidence Trap (MASTER BIAS)(PSY Benson, Hogg, Wason, Dobelli 2013, Lotto 2017, Forman 2020) 1 Everyday/General Biases 1 GR: ROBI'S OWN BIASES + EXAMPLES + RECOMMENDATIONS 1 Issues - Psychology (510+) 1 Motivated Reasoning / Rationalization 1 NOEMI'S BIASES + EXAMPLES OF HER BIASES + RECOMMENDATIONS 1 Religion-Related Biases 1 Research/Science-Related Biases / Research Bias (56+) t Support (for/of) (noun/verb) 1 Ways of getting (a premise / an argument / a conclusion) false/wrong 1 Yourbias.is (portal) = BIAS-EX (560+) ~ Arbitrary Conclusion/Inference / Jumping/Leaping to Conclusions (JTC) = Argument from (Final) Consequences / Appeal to Consequences / Argumentum ad Consequentiam / Teleological Fallacy = attribiiciés torzités(ok) + Bike-shed effect / Law of triviality (facing a too complex issue one starts to focus on irrelevant details that are easier to solve)‘= Conjunction Fallacy Conservatism of Regressive Bias + Delmore effect (set more explicit goals for low priority domains than for more important ambitions) = Information Bias + Law of Parsimony / Occam’s/Ockham’s Razor + Less-is-better effect (DE: Wer die Wahl hat, hat die Qual) = Rhyme as reason effect = Slothful Induction 0 Backlinks Ockham-féle takarékossagi/egyszertiségi elv/sztir6é Ockham-féle takarékossagi/egyszertiségi elv/szGré 6 Mapped Links 1 egyszertiség 1 Issues - Psychology (510+) 1 Law of Parsimony / Occam's/Ockham’s Razor 1 Probability Biases 1 Research/Science-Related Biases / Research Bias (56+) 1 takarékosség 0 BacklinksAlternative Histories/Paths assuming that a current state provides information about how it was achieved Alternative Histories/Paths 41 Mapped Links 1 Social Philosophy (ALL) t Dobell: The Art of Thinking clearly (2011, 2013)(UK) 1 Taleb: Fooled by Randomness (2001)(US) 1 Taleb, Nassim Nicholas (options trader, historian, mathematician, statistician, philosopher, social psychologist, polymath)(Lebanon, US)(158+) 1 Assumption(s) / Guess(es) 1 Attribution of Relationship Biases (attribution of link/relationship to pairs/groups of phenomena)(35+) 1 Attributional Biases (50+) t Biases Related To Time (29+) 1 Business/Economy/Marketing/Trade-Related Biases 1 Causality Biases 1 Cognitive Biases/Heuristics / Inductive/Logical Fallacies / Irrational Heuristics 1 Current State 1 ESTIMATING PROBABILITIES FOR THE FUTURE (to bring the future nearer we formulate expectations) 1 Expectation Bias (what you expect to improve will improve indeed, if not, the bigger the disappointment) 1 Forensic Psychology (PSY Miinsterberg) 1 Gambling-Related Biases/Fallacies1 Issues - Psychology (510+) 1 Jurisdiction/Law Enforcement-Related Biases 1 Mathematics/Statistics-Related Biases 1 Mental/Imaginary Constructs/Frameworks/Products/Representations/Structures 1 Personal Construct(s) Political Construct(s) Politics-Related Biases Probability Biases PROJECTION IN TIME (we project our mindset/assumptions into the past and future) Research/Science-Related Biases / Research Bias (56+) ~~ “LNG-HU-EXP-jelz6s fénév/szerkezet/szokapcsolat (5530+3 above)(2024-01) - ~0020~ENG-EN-sentence (1/1600)(2024-01) = BIAS-EX (560+) + attribuiciés torzitas(ok) + Black Swan Blindness/Fallacy ~ Confabulation (production of fabricated/distorted/misinterpreted memories about oneself or the world without the conscious intention to deceive)(HU: képzelédés) ~ Fallacy of the Single Cause / Single Perspective Instinct / Reductionism = Focusing Effect - Gambler's/Lottery/Monte Carlo fallacy (DE: Spielerfehischluss)(the belief in fate's equalizing hand, eg in roulette after many blacks a red should follow, 1,2,3,4,5 is less probabale than 3, 14, 56, 67, 89?) + Illusion of skill (In certain - some say in ALL - professions luck plays a bigger role than talent, skill and hard work in success, though the latter three are also necessary) ‘= Russian roulette (reality is like a revolver with hundreds or thousands of chambers) = Self-selection Bias 1 * In military confrontations during the history of mankind it was always the enemy alone that caused the war. 4 Acél szentesiti az eszkézt. (HU) 1 Allroads lead to Rome (EN) 0 BacklinksDesign Bias / Flawed Study Design experiment is designed to deliver the hoped results)(HU: elfogult kisérlettervezés? Design Bias / Flawed Study Design 22 Mapped Links 1 1.0, BIASES AND OTHER ERRORS TO AVOID 1 Experiment(s) (PHI Alhazen, Bacon, May) 1 Framing Bias/Effect/Trap / Frame Building/Setting 1 Health/Medicine-Related Biases/Misperceptions 1 HOPE 1 Issues - Psychology (510+) 1 Planning 1 Psychological Experiments 1 Research/Science-Related Biases / Research Bias (56+) 1 Research/Scientific Method(s)/Methodology BIAS-EX (560+) = Chanelling bias () Early Stopping of Trial + Experimenter's Bias / Observer-expectancy Effect = FACTUALITY / OBJECTIVITY / OBJECTIVENESS ‘= Inclusion Bias ‘= Interviewer Bias ‘+ Omission Bias — Sampling/Selection/Ascertainment Bias 1 Make sure the used dataset, the selection of your sources/participants and the design of your experiment do not preclude your results. 1 nemzeti konzultécié 4 Try to overcome your cognitive biases as much as possible0 Backlinks Law of Parsimony / Occam’s/Ockham's Razor when presented with competing hypothetical answers to a problem, one should select the one that makes the fewest assumptions - it is never rational to postulate the existence of more things than necessary Law of Parsimony / Occam’s/Ockham's Razor 26 Mapped Links 1 Problem(s) (ALL) 1 Benson: Cognitive Bias Codex (2016) 1 Assumption(s) / Guess(es) 1 AVOIDANCE OF AMBIGUITY (we favor simple options and complete information over complex/ambiguous options) 1 C-PHIL > Epistemology (385+) 1 Cognitive Biases/Heuristics / Inductive/Logical Fallacies / Irrational Heuristics 1 Critical Thinking t Heuristics (Rules of Thumb / Snap Judgements / Mental Shortcuts)(Pélya) 1 Issues - Psychology (510+) 1 Novella: Your Deceptive Mind (The Teaching Company: The Great Courses, 2012)(US) 1 Probability Biases T Rationalism / Rationality / Reason 1 Research/Science-Related Biases / Research Bias (56+)1 Research/Scientific Method(s)/Methodology © BIAS-EX (560+) + Ambiguity Aversion/Bias/Effect / Well-travelled Road Effect = Belief Bias = Bike-shed effect / Law of triviality (facing a too complex issue one starts to focus on irrelevant details that are easier to solve) ‘= Conjunction Fallacy ‘= Delmore effect (set more explicit goals for low priority domains than for more important ambitions) ‘= Hanlon's Razor + Information Bias = Less-is-better effect (DE: Wer die Wahl hat, hat die Qual) = Rhyme as reason effect 1 Egyszerii? Nagyszerii! 1 Ockham-féle takarékossagi/egyszeriségi elv/szGré 0 Backlinks Instinct of Binary Thinking / Gap Instinct / The West and the Rest Fallacy (PSY, Rosling) Instinct of Binary Thinking / Gap Instinct / The West and the Rest Fallacy (PSY, Rosling) 36 Mapped Links 1 COGNITION / THINKING (ALL)(600+) 1 Rosling: Factfulness (Flatiron Books, 2018) 1 ARGUMENTATION / REASONING / PROCESSING / REFLEXION / THINKING / COGNITION 1 Binary Thinking 1 BON-MOTS - Psychology 1 C/CDE/CHU-SCI-TERMS - Psychology (106+)1 Cognitive Biases/Heuristics / Inductive/Logical Fallacies / Irrational Heuristics 1 Desire for Simplicity / Avoidance of Complexity 1 Education/Testing-Related Biases (47+) 1 Fallacies (byN) (72+) 1 Instinct(s) 1 Issues - Psychology (5104) 1 Mathematics/Statistics-Related Biases 1 Reduction(s) 1 Research/Science-Related Biases / Research Bias (56+) 1 Simplification 1 SIMPLIFYING MATHS (we simplify probabilities and numbers to make them easier to think about) + BIAS-EX (560+) = Blame Instinct (Rosling) Contrast Effect ~ Destiny Instinct (PSY Rosling) ‘= Distinction Bias = Fallacy of the Single Cause / Single Perspective Instinct / Reductionism = Fear instinct (PSY, Rosling) = Hasty Generalization / Generalization instinct (PSY, Rosling) + Negativity Bias/Effect/Instinet / Negative Confirmation Bias (Benson 2x\, Rosling) ‘= Size Instinct (PSY, Rosling) ~ Straight Line Instinct (PSY, Rosling) ‘= Urgency Instinct (PSY, Rosling) 1 * FAULTLINES / CLEAVAGES / DICHOTOMIES / DILEMMAS / DIVIDES / DUALISMS / DUALITIES / STRUGGLES 1 Coloureds (descendants of white males and Asian/Khoikhoi women or blacks)(9%) 1 False/Forced Choice/Dichotomy/Dilemma Fallacy / Bifurcation/Black-or-White/Either-or Fallacy / Fallacy of the False Alternative / All-or-nothing Thinking / Polarized Thinking 1 fehér ember 1 fekete ember 1 Nonsense of the 40-year-old Developing/Developed World distinction > Continuum. 1 Overcoming the Gap Instinct (Rosling) 0 BacklinksLudic Fallacy analysis of chance-related problems with the narrow framework of games. Ignoring the complexity of reality Ludic Fallacy 16 Mapped Links 1 COGNITION / THINKING (ALL)(600+) 1 Problem(s) (ALL) 1 Social Philosophy (ALL) 1 Taleb: The Black Swan (2007)(US) 1 Taleb, Nassim Nicholas (options trader, historian, mathematician, statistician, philosopher, social psychologist, polymath)(Lebanon, US)(158+) 1 ARGUMENTATION / REASONING / PROCESSING / REFLEXION / THINKING / COGNITION 1 ESTIMATING PROBABILITIES FOR THE FUTURE (to bring the future nearer we formulate expectations) 1 Fallacies (byN) (72+) 1 Game Theory (Neumann > Nash, Berne, Harsdnyi, Kahneman, Mér6, Varoufakis, Christian) 1 Issues - Psychology (510+) 1 Mediocristan (Taleb) 1 Platonicity (PHIL/PSY Taleb)(HU: valosdgtdl valé elrugaszkodottsdg) 1 Probability Biases 1 Research/Science-Related Biases / Research Bias (56+) ~ “LNG-HU-EXP-jelz6s fonév/szerkezet/sz6kapesolat (5530+3 above)(2024-01) = BIAS-EX (560+) 0 BacklinksIllusion of skill (In certain - some say in ALL - professions luck plays a bigger role than talent, skill and hard work in success, though the latter three are also necessary) Illusion of skill (In certain - some say in ALL - professions luck plays a bigger role than talent, skill and hard work in success, though the latter three are also necessary) 25 Mapped Links t Social Philosophy (ALL) 1 Dobelli: The Art of Thinking clearly (2011, 2013)(UK) 1 Taleb: Skin in the Game (2018)(US) 1 Taleb: Fooled by Randomness (2001)(US) 1 Taleb, Nassim Nicholas (options trader, historian, mathematician, statistician, philosopher, social psychologist, polymath)(Lebanon, US)(158+) 1 Ability / Capability / Competence / Skill 1 Business/Economy/Marketing/Trade-Related Biases 1 Gambling Related Biases/Fallacies 1 Illusion(s) (Plato, Descartes, Nietzsche, Camus, Einstein, Blackmore, Seth) 1 Illusions (byN) 1 Issues - Psychology (510+) 1 Research/Science-Related Biases / Research Bias (56+) t Skill(s)t Success(es) + BIAS-EX (560+) + Alternative Histories/Paths — Argumentum ab Auctoritate / Argument from Authority / Appeal to Authority / Authority Bias + Beginner's Luck = Egocentric Bias - Gambler's/Lottery/Monte Carlo fallacy (DE: Spielerfehischluss)(the belief in fate's equalizing hand, eg in roulette after many blacks a red should follow, 1,2,3,4,5 is less probabale than 3, 14, 56, 67,89?) = Historian's Fallacy / Outcome Bias + Illusion of control (if you believe you can alter a situation it will effectively help you forget that you can't) = Overconfidence Bias/Effect/Trap / Illogical Self-confidence = Survivorship Bias 1 Russian roulette (reality is like a revolver with hundreds or thousands of chambers) 0 Backlinks Duration neglect (remembering poorly the duration of past events) Duration neglect (remembering poorly the duration of past events) 38 Mapped Links 1 MEMORY EDITING/RETRIEVAL (to bring the past nearer we invent, select, edit and reinforce ‘our memories) 1 REDUCTION TO ESSENCE (we reduce events and lists to their key elements) 1 Benson: Cognitive Bias Codex (2016) 1 Kahneman, Daniel (behavioral economist, social psychologist, Nobel laureate)(Hebrew University, Israel, Princeton University, US) 1 Autobiographic/Narrative Self 1 Biases Related to the Perceived Duration of Time 1 Biases Related To Time (29+)C- BUSI/ECON > Behavioral Economics (100+) Decision Making under Time Stress Education/Testing-Related Biases (47+) Everyday/General Biases Extention-neglect-type biases Health/Medicine-Related Biases/Misperceptions Issues - Psychology (510+) Journalism/Media-Related Biases 1 Memory Bias(es) 1 Misperceptions / False perceptions / Perceptional Biases (Duffy: falsely believing to know)(84+) 1 Perceived Duration of Time (HU: megéit id6, idéérzet) 1 Perception of Time / Time Perception (Seneca > Minsterberg) 1 Research/Science-Related Biases / Research Bias (56+) 1 TIME (PSY) / MENTAL TIME = BIAS-EX (560+) = Childhood/infantile amnesia (the inability to remember events of early childhood) = Hindsight Bias / Retrofitting ~ Historian's Fallacy / Outcome Bias ‘= Levelling and sharpening (selective recollection, weakening and strengthening of details) = Listlength effect (a smaller percentage of items are remembered in a longer list, but as the length of the list increases, the absolute number of items remembered increases as well) = Memory inhibition (being shown some items from a list makes it harder to retrieve the other items) ‘+ Misinformation Effect ‘= Modality Effect = Partlist cueing effect + Peakend Effect/Rule + Primacy Effect = Recency (of Information) Bias = Reminiscence Bump + Serial position effect = Serial recall effect = Sufix effect0 Backlinks Hindsight Bias / Retrofitting The tendency to believe, after an event has occurred, that one would have predicted or expected it, despite there being little or no objective basis for the prediction. In hindsight - usually with memory distortion - all events follow certain logic which nobody was aware of at the time. Hindsight Bias / Retrofitting 68 Mapped Links 1 MEMORY EDITING/RETRIEVAL (to bring the past nearer we invent, select, edit and reinforce our memories) 1 REDUCTION TO ESSENCE (we reduce events and lists to their key elements) 1 Benson: Cognitive Bias Codex (2016) 1 Dobelli: The Art of Thinking clearly (2011, 2013)(UK) 1 Kahneman: Thinking, Fast and Slow (2011) 1 Kahneman, Daniel (behavioral economist, social psychologist, Nobel laureate)(Hebrew University, Israel, Princeton University, US) 1 Attribution of Relationship Biases (attribution of link/relationship to pairs/groups of phenomena)(35+) 1 Attributional Biases (50+) 1 Behavioral Economics / Psychology of Business 1 Behavioral Game Theory (Berne, Harsényi, Kahneman, Mér6, Varoufakis, Christian) 1 Biases Related to the Distance in Time / Distortion/Projection of Time (15+) 1 Biases Related To Time (29+) 1 C-BUSI/ECON > Behavioral Economics (100+)1 Causality Biases 1 Cognitive Biases/Heuristics / Inductive/Logical Fallacies / Irrational Heuristics 1 Education/Testing-Related Biases (47+) 1 FILLING IN (we fillin characterstics from stereotypes, generalities and prior histories) 1 Forensic Psychology (PSY Miinsterberg) 1 Issues - Psychology (510+) 1 Journalism/Media-Related Biases 1 Jurisdiction/Law Enforcement-Related Biases 1 Knowledge 1 Memory Bias(es) 1 Memory Distortion 1 PATTERN DETECTION/FINDING 1 PROJECTION IN TIME (We project our mindset/assumptions into the past and future) 1 Religion-Related Biases 1 Research/Science-Related Biases / Research Bias (56+) 1 Retrospection 1 Simplification 1 Story Bias / Narrative Fallacy 1 Tendency/Tendencies 1 TIME (PSY) / MENTAL TIME = BIAS-EX (560+) « attribuciés torzitas(ok) = Backward telescoping bias/effect / Time expansion (perceiving recent events as being more distant in the past than they are) ‘+ Black Swan Blindness/Fallacy = Black Swan(s) / Black Swan Event(s) (1697-)(COMM/BUSI/ECON/HIST/MATH/PHI/POL/PSY Taleb 2007) ‘= Choice-supportive bias (remembering chosen options as having been better than rejected options) ‘= Curse of Knowledge = Deelinism= Duration neglect (remembering poorly the duration of past events) ~ Fallacy of the Single Cause / Single Perspective Instinct / Reductionism ~ Historian's Fallacy / Outcome Bias «= Illusory Correlation = Impact Bias ‘= Moral luck Motivated Reasoning / Rationalization = Pessimism Bias = Planning Fallacy / Inside View = Pro‘innovation bias ‘= Projection Bias ‘= Restraint bias (overestimate one's ability to control impulsive behavior) = Retrospective Distortion / Illusion of Posterior Predictability (Taleb) = Rosy retrospection / Memoria praeteritorum bonorum = Riickschaufehler (1) « Self-consistency bias Telescoping bias/effect (perceiving recent events as being more remote than they are and distant events in the past as being more recent than they are) = Time-saving when travelling bias/allacy (misestimation of time that can be saved/lost when increasing/decreasing speed within a low or high speed range) 4 Conspiracy Theory/Theories 1 Falsification of History 1 GR: "Hacsak nem vagyunk egy adott korszakot kutaté torténészek, rdlétésunk a miltra logaritmikus / forditottan exponencidlis: nemesak jéval kevesebbet tudunk minden régebbi id6rétegrél, de tudésunk megbizhatosdga is exponencidlisan csdkken” 1 Harari: ‘Civilisations are retrospective constructs, human groups define themselves best by the changes they have initiated (not by ethnie, race or statehood). (by sense) 1 Lessing: ‘History, having no objective validity, amounts to a mythic construct imposed on an unknowable reality, in order to give it some semblance of meaning” 1 Posterior/Retrospective predictability 4 Retrospective Plausibility 4 Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it (EN) | Try to overcome your cognitive biases as much as possible 0 Backlinks Inclusion Bias Inclusion Bias 14 Mapped Links 1 Distortion(s)1 Experiment(s) (PHI Alhazen, Bacon, May) T Inclusion T Issues - Psychology (510+) 1 Mathematics/Statistics-Related Biases 1 Research/Science-Related Biases / Research Bias (56+) T Selection ~ BIAS-EX (560+) = Chanelling bias () + Design Bias / Flawed Study Design = Experimenter's Bias / Observer-expectancy Effect ‘= Inclusion Paradox ‘= Omission Bias - Sampling/Selection/Ascertainment Bias 0 Backlinks Interviewer Bias in surveys, if the interviewers know the expected outcome, their questions will tend to serve the purpose) (HU: kérdezébiztosi elfogultsag? Interviewer Bias 17 Mapped Links 1 Framing Bias/Effect/Trap / Frame Building/Setting 1 Health/Medicine-Related Biases/Misperceptions 1 Issues - Psychology (510+) 1 Jurisdiction/Law Enforcement-Related Biases 1 Research/Science-Related Biases / Research Bias (56+)= BIAS-EX (560+) ~ Anecdotal Evidence/Fallacy / Misleading Vividness ~ Chanelling bias () = Chronology Bias = Design Bias / Flawed Study Design ‘= FACTUALITY / OBJECTIVITY / OBJECTIVENESS 1 Cut-and-dried Question(s) 1 Leading Question(s) 1 Loaded Question(s) 1 National Dialogue(s) 1 nemzeti konzultécié 1 Try to overcome your cognitive biases as much as possible 0 Backlinks Problem of Induction / Overgeneralization while being fed, poultry and pigs believe more and more strongly in their carers' goodwill - but only until they are slaughtered, The tendency to make a rule after a singular event / a few occurrences of it. Connecting the dots too early. Problem of Induction / Overgeneralization 30 Mapped Links 1 Social Philosophy (ALL) 1 Taleb: The Black Swan (2007)(US) 1 Taleb, Nassim Nicholas (options trader, historian, mathematician, statistician, philosopher, social psychologist, polymath)(Lebanon, US)(158+) 1 * COGNITIVE BIAS(ES)(PSY Kahneman-Tversky 1972)(US) 1 3.0. BIASES AND OTHER ERRORS TO AVOID 1 C=PHIL > Epistemology (385+)tT ESTIMATING PROBABILITIES FOR THE FUTURE (to bring the future nearer we formulate expectations) 1 F- BRAIN / Functions/Functioning of the Brain / Mental Acts/Functions (281+) 1 Inductive Reasoning / Induction (PHI Aristotle) 1 Issues - Psychology (510+) 1 PATTERN DETECTION/FINDING 1 Probability Biases 1 Problems by Type 1 Research/Science-Related Biases / Research Bias (56+) 1 Tendency/Tendencies 1 Ways of getting (a premise / an argument / a conclusion) false/wrong = BIAS-EX (560+) Black Swan Blindness/Fallacy + Extrapolation = LOGIC loyikii Aoyuh + Story Bias / Narrative Fallacy 1 Anxiety Disorder(s) 1 Devils Horn Effect 1 Halo Effect / Transfer Fallacy 1 If someone has one bad experience taking the bus, they might vow to never take the bus again. 1 Intrinsic bias / Well-meaning bias / "I just know it" bias (Hartmann) 1 Law of Small Numbers 1 Representativeness/Similarity Heuristic (PSY Kahneman-Tversky 1983) 1 Try to overcome your cognitive biases as much as possible 1 tulaltaldnosités 0 Backlinks Chanelling bias ()Chanelling bias () 11 Mapped Links 1 Health/Medicine-Related Biases/Misperceptions 1 Issues - Psychology (510+) 1 Planning 1 Research/Science-Related Biases / Research Bias (56+) = BIAS-EX (560+) ‘= Design Bias / Flawed Study Design + Early Stopping of Trial ~ Experimenter’s Bias / Observer-expectancy Effect = Inclusion Bias = Interviewer Bias + Sampling/Selection/Ascertainment Bias 0 Backlinks Black Swan Blindness/Fallacy mistakenly believing that the past was predictable, people conclude that the future is predictable and misestimate the probability of black swan events (PHIL Taleb)(HU: robotpiléta?) Black Swan Blindness/Fallacy 36 Mapped Links 1 COGNITION / THINKING (ALL)(600+) 1 Social Philosophy (ALL) 1 Dobelli: The Art of Thinking clearly (2011, 2013)(UK) 1 Taleb: The Black Swan (2007)(US)1 Taleb, Nassim Nicholas (options trader, historian, mathematician, statistician, philosopher, social psychologist, polymath)(Lebanon, US)(158+) 1 ARGUMENTATION / REASONING / PROCESSING / REFLEXION / THINKING / COGNITION 1 Black Swan blindness (PHIL Taleb)(HU: robotpiléta?) 1 Blindness(es) / Mental Blindspot(s) 1 Business/Economy/Marketing/Trade Related Biases 1 C-PHIL > Epistemology (385+) 1 C-PSY > Decision Making (270+) 1 Decision-Making / Planning Biases 1 ESTIMATING PROBABILITIES FOR THE FUTURE (to bring the future nearer we formulate expectations) 1 Expectational Biases 1 Expert / Empty Suit Problem 1 Fallacies (byN) (72+) 1 Future Blindness (Taleb) / Future-related Biases 1 FUTURE (PSY) / Perception/Anticipation/Planning of the Future 1 Gambling Related Biases/Fallacies T Issues - Psychology (510+) 1 Probability Biases 1 Psychology of Decision-Making / Decision Research/Science 1 Research/Science-Related Biases / Research Bias (56+) 1 Story Bias / Narrative Fallacy 1 Ways of getting (a premise / an argument / a conclusion) false/wrong ~ BIAS-EX (560+) ~ Alternative Histories/Paths - Ambiguity Aversion/Bias/Effect / Well-travelled Road Effect = Confirmation Bias/Error / Confirming-evidence Trap (MASTER BIAS)(PSY Benson, Hogg, Wason, Dobelli 2013, Lotto 2017, Forman 2020) + Expectation Bias (what you expect to improve will improve indeed, if not, the bigger the disappointment) = Forecast Illusion~ Hindsight Bias / Retrofitting Problem of Induction / Overgeneralization + Survivorship Bias 1 Black Swan(s) / Black Swan Event(s) (1697-)(COMM/BUSI/ECON/HIST/MATH/PHI/POL/PSY Taleb 2007) 1 History repeats itself (EN) 0 Backlinks Plausibility Check(s) / Test(s) Plausibility Check(s) / Test(s) 21 Mapped Links 1 xLNG-NOUNS-ALL (9/21200)(2024-01) 1 COGNITION / THINKING (ALL)(600+) 1 Levitin: A Field Guide to Lies: Critical Thinking in the Information Age (2016)(UK, US) 1 Levitin, Daniel (cognitive psychologist, behavioral neuroscientist, statistician)(US) 1 Assessment / Checking / Control / Evaluation / Examination / Monitoring / Questioning / Testing 1 C-PHIL > Epistemology (385+) 1 Checking 1 Critical Thinking 1 Curing/Minimizing/Reducing Biases 1 Decision-Making / Planning Biases 1 F- BRAIN / Functions/Functioning of the Brain / Mental Acts/Functions (281+) T Neuroscience 1 Plausibilty 1 Research/Science-Related Biases / Research Bias (56+)1 System 2 (SLOW & COOL) / The "THINKER’, the "Lazy Controller’ (PSY Kahneman > Mlodinow) 1 Test(s) (noun/verb) 1 Testing ~ Estimation(s) + Fact-Checking + Falsification / Invalidation + Verification 0 Backlinks Self-selection Bias when counting oneself as part of the sample distorts the result Self-selection Bias 26 Mapped Links t Dobell: The Art of Thinking clearly (2011, 2013)(UK) 1 Anima / Brain / Ego / Heart / Mind / Persona / Personality / Self / Soul (122+) 1 Distortion(s) 1 Ego Eyw / Persona / Personality / Self (95+) 1 Egoist/Self-serving Biases 1 ESTIMATING PROBABILITIES FOR THE FUTURE (to bring the future nearer we formulate expectations) 1 Gambling Related Biases/Fallacies 1 Issues - Psychology (510+) 1 Mathematics/Statistics-Related Biases 1 Probability Biases1 Research/Science-Related Biases / Research Bias (56+) 1 Sample(s) 1 Self: (prefix)(EN), SELF: (Adler, Ashby, Barabési, Burnett, Enzensberger, Fichte, Goldstein, Herbert, A., Maslow, Pickett, Schopenhauer, Sternberg, Wilkinson) = BIAS-EX (560+) ~ Alternative Histories/Paths = Cherry-picking = Confirmation Bias/Error / Confirming-evidence Trap (MASTER BIAS)(PSY Benson, Hogg, Wason, Dobelli 2013, Lotto 2017, Forman 2020) = Early Stopping of Trial = Experimenter’s Bias / Observer-expectancy Effect ~ Feature-positive Effect Negativity Bias/Effect/Instinct / Negative Confirmation Bias (Benson 2x!, Rosling) — Sampling/Selection/Ascertainment Bias, = Self-reference effect (encode/retain information differently depending on the level on which one is implicated in it) = Swimmer's Body Illusion 1 Advance-Fee Fraud/Scam 1 Nigerian Prince Scam / Art 417 Scam 0 Backlinks Choice-supportive bias (remembering chosen options as having been better than rejected options) ‘Az Apple (mert nekem is az van) szuper, a PC (amit nem vélasztottam) szar. Olyan pro érveket is sajét korabbi érveinknek tulajdonitunk, amelyeket csak utdlag fejlesztettink ki, az eredeti déntéshozés sorén valoban felmeriilt ellenérveinket elfejetjak vagy kicsinyitjuk. Az emlékezés sorén a pozitiv élmény emilékei k6zétti réseket pozitiv ditartalmakkal téltjdk fol. Magunkat tendenciézusan pozitivabban létjuk a milt helyzeteiben, mint amilyenek valojéban voltunk. "Azért vagyok pérttag, mert egyetértek azzal amit a pértom mond.” "Abetegség j6, mert nemesiti a lelket és kozelebb hoz Istenhez.”Choice-supportive bias (remembering chosen options as having been better than rejected options) 47 Mapped Links 1 MEMORY EDITING/RETRIEVAL (to bring the past nearer we invent, select, edit and reinforce ‘our memories) 1 Benson: Cognitive Bias Codex (2016) 1 Burnett: The idiot brain (2016)(UK) 1 Burnett, Dean (neuroscientist, psychologist)(UK) 1 Affective/Emotional/Motivational Biases 1 Autobiographic/Narrative Self 1 Business/Economy/Marketing/Trade-Related Biases 1 C-PSY > Decision Making (270+) 1 Choice(s) 1 Decision-Making / Planning Biases 1 Desire for Being Consistent 1 Desire for Self-esteem 1 Desire for Simplicity / Avoidance of Complexity 1 Egoist/Self-serving Biases 1 Issues - Psychology (510+) 1 Memory Bias(es) 1 Memory Recall/Recollection/Retrieval / Remembering > Recreation (of memories)(PSY, Novella, Burnett) 1 Neuroscience 1 Novella: Your Deceptive Mind (The Teaching Company: The Great Courses, 2012)(US) t Option(s) 1 Psychology of Decision-Making / Decision Research/Science 1 Research/Science-Related Biases / Research Bias (56+)1 SELF-CONFIRMATION (we are drawn to details that confirm our existing beliefs) 1 Self-fulfilling biases/prophecies 1 Support (for/of) (noun/verb) = BIAS-EX (560+) Barnum/Forer Effect / Astrologer's Certainty (Forer 1948) = Change bias (after an investment of effort in producing change, remembering one’s past, performance as more difficult than it actually was) ‘= Confirmation Bias/Error / Confirming-evidence Trap (MASTER BIAS)(PSY Benson, Hogg, Wason, Dobelli 2013, Lotto 2017, Forman 2020) + Congruence Bias (PSY Wason) = Continued influence effect (when a piece of already corrected-discredited information continues to influence our thinking) ‘— Empathy (Lipps > Freud, Husser!) — Endowment Effect / Divestiture Aversion + Expectation Bias (what you expect to improve will improve indeed, if not, the bigger the disappointment) Experimenter's Bias / Observer-expectancy Effect ~ Hawthorne effect / Observer effect (when people modify their behavior in response to their awareness of being observed) ‘= Hindsight Bias / Retrofitting - Marriage / Wedding / Conjugal Union + Motivated Reasoning / Rationalization = Ostrich Effect ~ Paradox of Choice (Schwartz) / Choice Overload Problem / Choice Paralysis = Post-purchase rationalzation / Buyer's Stockholm syndrome - Pygmalion/Rosenthal effect (trust + higher expectations placed upon individuals either by supervisors or the individuals themselves lead to better performance by the individual)(1965) + Selective Attention/Perception Semmelweis Effect/Reflex - Theory of Cognitive Dissonance (PSY Festinger 1962) 1 Love sees no faults (EN) 0 BacklinksSampling/Selection/Ascertainment Bias a bias in which a sample is collected in such a non-random way that some members of the intended population have a lower or igher sampling probability than others - these samples are not representative. Sampling/Selection/Ascertainment Bias 49 Mapped Links 1 GENERALISATION/GENERALIZATION (we use/misuse memories + input specifics to form generalities) 1 COGNITION / THINKING (ALL)(600+) 1 1.0, BIASES AND OTHER ERRORS TO AVOID 1 ARGUMENTATION / REASONING / PROCESSING / REFLEXION / THINKING / COGNITION 1 Attribution of Relationship Biases (attribution of link/telationship to pairs/groups of phenomena)(35+) 1 Attributional Biases (50+) t Causality Biases 1 Cognitive Biases/Heuristics / Inductive/Logical Fallacies / Irrational Heuristics 1 Confirmation Bias/Error / Confirming-evidence Trap (MASTER BIAS)(PSY Benson, Hogg, Wason, Dobelli 2013, Lotto 2017, Forman 2020) 1 Distortion(s) 1 Effect(s) 1 ESTIMATING PROBABILITIES FOR THE FUTURE (to bring the future nearer we formulate expectations) 1 Experiment(s) (PHI Alhazen, Bacon, May) 1 Fallacies (byN) (72+)1 Framing Bias/Effect/Trap / Frame Building/Setting T Inclusion T Issues - Psychology (510+) 1 Mathematics/Statistics-Related Biases 1 Probability Biases 1 RANDOMNESS (Heisenberg, Hawking, Taleb, Mlodinow) 1 Research/Science-Related Biases / Research Bias (56+) 1 Research/Scientific Method(s)/Methodology 1 Sample(s) 1 Selection 1 SELF-CONFIRMATION (we are drawn to details that confirm our existing beliefs) + BIAS-EX (560+) + attribiiciés torzités(ok) = Chanelling bias () + Cherry-picking ~ Design Bias / Flawed Study Design = Drama instinct / Overdramatic worldview (PHIL, PSY, Rosling) = Early Stopping of Trial + Experimenter's Bias / Observer-expectancy Effect + Hasty Generalization / Generalization Instinct (PSY, Rosling) = Inclusion Bias + Omission Bias ‘= Overwhelming exception (a generalization that is accurate, but which eliminates so many cases that what remains is much less impressive than the initial statement might have led one to believe)(HU: nesze semmi, fogd meg jé! ltaldnositas? / ujat nem hoz6 tuldltalénositas?) ‘+ Representativeness/Similarity Heuristic (PSY Kahneman-Tversky 1983) + Self-selection Bias = Slothful Induction = Statistical special pleading (reclassify or requantify data from one portion of results, but not applying the same scrutiny to other categories) ‘+ Theory-induced Blindness 4 Anecdotal Evidence/Fallacy / Misleading Vividness 1 Biased Sample 1 Cartel(s) of Interpretation / Digital Tribe(s) / Epistemic/Opinion Silo(s) 1 Law of Small Numbers 1 Make sure the used dataset, the selection of your sources/participants and the design of your experiment do not preclude your results. 1 Recommendations on books’ jackets 4 Try to overcome your cognitive biases as much as possible0 Backlinks Telescoping bias/effect (perceiving recent events as being more remote than they are and distant events in the past as being more recent than they are) Telescoping bias/effect (perceiving recent events as being more remote than they are and distant events in the past as being more recent than they are) 30 Mapped Links 1 Benson: Cognitive Bias Codex (2016) 1 Biases Related to the Distance in Time / Distortion/Projection of Time (15+) 1 Biases Related To Time (29+) 1 Effect(s) 1 Issues - Psychology (510+) 1 Misperceptions / False perceptions / Perceptional Biases (Duffy: falsely believing to know)(84+) 1 Perceive (verb) 1 Perceived Distance in Time (HU: érzékelt id6beli tavolsag) 1 Perceived Duration of Time (HU: megélt id6, id6érzet) 1 Perception of Time / Time Perception (Seneca > Munsterberg) 1 Perception(s) (BIOL/PHIL/PSY Euclid, Alhazen, Blake, Kant, Berkeley, Schopenhauer, Helmholtz, Huxley, Minsterberg, Lotto, Seth)(all)(67+)1 PROJECTION IN TIME (we project our mindset/assumptions into the past and future) 1 Research/Science-Related Biases / Research Bias (56+) © “ENG-HU-EXP-jelz6s fénév/szerkezet/szdkapcsolat (5530+3 above)(2024-01) ‘= BIAS-EX (560+) = Deelinism Hindsight Bias / Retrofitting + Historian's Fallacy / Outcome Bias = Impact Bias + Moral luck = Pessimism Bias = Planning Fallacy / Inside View = Pro-innovation bias + Projection Bias = Restraint bias (overestimate one's ability to control impulsive behavior) = Rosy retrospection / Memoria praeteritorum bonorum «= Self-consistency bias ~ Time-saving when travelling bias/fallacy (misestimation of time that can be saved/lost when increasing/decreasing speed within a low or high speed range) 1 Backward telescoping bias/effect / Time expansion (perceiving recent events as being more distant in the past than they are) 1 Forward telescoping bias/effect (perceiving distant events in the past as being more recent than they are) 0 Backlinks Reasoning Reasoning ‘46 Mapped Links 1 COGNITION / THINKING (ALL)(600+) 1 Cheng: The Art of Logic (2018)(UK) 1 ARGUMENTATION / REASONING / PROCESSING / REFLEXION / THINKING / COGNITION 1 C-PHIL > Epistemology (385+) 1 Critical Thinking1 Curing/Minimizing/Reducing Biases 1 Decision-Making / Planning Biases 1 F- BRAIN / Functions/Functioning of the Brain / Mental Acts/Functions (281+) 1 Frontal cortex/lobe 1 Human Condition/Experience / Human Nature (ANT/PHI Boethius, Harari) 1 Neural Process(es) 1 Parts/Constituents of Intelligence / "Special Intelligences" (PSY Spearman, Thurstone) 1 Rationalism / Rationality / Reason 1 Reason(s) (noun/verb) 1 REASONING / CHAIN OF LOGIC / CHAIN OF THOUGHTS / LOGICAL THINKING 1 Research/Science-Related Biases / Research Bias (56+) 1 Stream of Thoughts 1 System 2 (SLOW & COOL) / The THINKER’, the "Lazy Controller’ (PSY Kahneman > Mlodinow) = Abductive + Affective = Argumentation = Motivated (adi-pp) = okfejtés = Rigorous = Thought(s) 1 ABDUCTION = process through which a person tries to show the connection between unrelated facts and uses his intuitive thinking power for the same 4 Abductive Reasoning (Pierce) Affective Reasoning Argument from Fallacy / Bad Reason Fallacy / Fallacy Fallacy ‘Argumentum Ad Hominem (Reasoning) Basis for Reasoning Bayesian Reasoning Deductive Reasoning / Deduction (PHI, Aristotle) érvelés Fallacy/Fallacies First-Principle(s) Reasoning Formal/Deductive/Logical Fallacy / Non Sequitur / Invalid Deductive Argument(s) independent Reasoning Inductive Reasoning / Induction (PHI Aristotle) Motivated Reasoning / RationalizationOpinion(s) Post hoc ergo propter hoc / Post-hoc Fallacy / After-This-Therefore-Because-of-This Fallacy Psychology of Reasoning Rigorous Reasoning Scenario Analysis vélekedés 0 Backlinks Ostrich Effect not looking at bad news (HU: struccpolit Ostrich Effect 35 Mapped Links 1 Benson: Cognitive Bias Codex (2016) 1 Affective/Emotional/Motivational Biases 1 C-PSY > Psychology of Communication / Psycholinguistics (200+) 1 Confirmation Bias/Error / Confirming-evidence Trap (MASTER BIAS)(PSY Benson, Hogg, Wason, Dobelli 2013, Lotto 2017, Forman 2020) 1 Desire for Being Consistent 1 Effect(s) 1 Egoist/Self-serving Biases 1 GR: ROBI'S OWN BIASES + EXAMPLES + RECOMMENDATIONS 1 Inaction Biases (thinking instead of doing) 1 Issues - Psychology (510+) 1 Journalism/Media-Related Biases 1 Religion-Related Biases 1 Research/Science-Related Biases / Research Bias (56+)1 SELF-CONFIRMATION (we are drawn to details that confirm our existing beliefs) = BIAS-EX (560+) ‘= Antiism (1104) = Bargaining + Base-rate Fallacy/Neglect ~ Bystander Effect + Choice-supportive bias (remembering chosen options as having been better than rejected options) ‘= Congruence Bias (PSY Wason) ‘= Continued influence effect (when a piece of already corrected-discredited information continues to influence our thinking) = Denial = Distorted news Expectation Bias (what you expect to improve will improve indeed, if not, the bigger the disappointment) + Experimenter's Bias / Observer-expectancy Effect ~ Gated Community Mindset — Hawthorne effect / Observer effect (when people modify their behavior in response to their awareness of being observed) ‘~ Historians Fallacy / Outcome Bias - Omission Bias = Post-purchase rationalzation / Buyer's Stockholm syndrome + Selective Attention/Perception + Semmelweis Effect/Reflex = strucepolitika 4 Ne sz6lj szam, nem f4j fejem. 0 BacklinksFalse/Forced Choice/Dichotomy/Dilemma Fallacy / Bifurcation/Black-or-White/Either-or Fallacy / Fallacy of the False Alternative / All-or-nothing Thinking / Polarized Thinking The tendency to view the world in black and white terms, without nuance, to think of situations and people as good or bad, but nothing in between, thinking in extremes - in its weaponized form (Forced Choice) the misuse of the either/or argument; presenting only two options when other choices exist (if not A, it must be B, while option C/D/E... are ignored) False/Forced Choice/Dichotomy/Dilemma Fallacy / Bifurcation/Black-or-White/Either-or Fallacy / Fallacy of the False Alternative / All-or-nothing Thinking / Polarized Thinking 68 Mapped Links 1 REDUCTION TO ESSENCE (we reduce events and lists to their key elements) 1 COGNITION / THINKING (ALL)(600+) 1 * COGNITIVE BIAS(ES)(PSY Kahneman-Tversky 1972)(US) 1 2.0. BIASES AND OTHER ERRORS TO AVOID 1 Ainfluences B (administration, advertising, appeals, briefing, campaigning, convincing, governance, influencing, lying, manipulation, marketing, nudging, propaganda, strategic communication) 1 Agenda-setting1 Applied Biases / Choice Architecture / Framing for Decision / Instrumentalization of Biases / Manipulation / Biases with an Agenda / Bad Faith Arguments 1 ARGUMENTATION / REASONING / PROCESSING / REFLEXION / THINKING / COGNITION 1 Binary Thinking 1 Brand Marketing / Branding 1 Business/Economy/Marketing/Trade Related Biases 1 C-PSY > Psychology of Communication / Psycholinguistics (200+) t Choice(s) 1 Correlative-based fallacy/fallacies 1 Desire for Simplicity / Avoidance of Complexity 1 Dichotomic Thinking 1 Fallacies (byN) (72+) 1 Falsehood(s) 1 Framing Bias/Effect/Trap / Frame Building/Setting 1 Influencing Behavior/Behaviour / Governing the Soul 1 Informal Fallacy/Fallacies 1 Instinct of Binary Thinking / Gap Instinct / The West and the Rest Fallacy (PSY, Rosling) 1 Issues - Psychology (510+) 1 Ladder of Inference 1 LumenWayMaker Portal 1 Manipulation 1 Manipulative Appeals to Logos / Fallacies that Misuse Appeals to Logos 1 Negotiation Skills, 1 NOEMI'S BIASES + EXAMPLES OF HER BIASES + RECOMMENDATIONS 1 Novella: Your Deceptive Mind (The Teaching Company: The Great Courses, 2012)(US) 1 Perfectionism 1 Psychology of Populism1 REASONING / CHAIN OF LOGIC / CHAIN OF THOUGHTS / LOGICAL THINKING 1 Reduction(s) 1 Research/Science-Related Biases / Research Bias (56+) 1 Setting Default Options 1 Simplification 1 Social/interpersonal Biases/Illusions 1 Tendency/Tendencies = ~0010~LNG-HU-mondat (750+)(2024-01) = ~0020~ENG-EN-sentence (1/1600)(2024-01) = BIAS-EX (560+) ‘= Appeal to Ignorance - Skeptic's Form / Round-trip Fallacy (Taleb) ‘= Appeal to Ignorance - True Believer's Form - Argumentum Ad Hominem (Reasoning) Circular Logic/Argument / Cause and Consequence Fallacy/Fallacies / Begging the Question ‘+ Contrast Effect + Decoy Effect False Continuum + Formal/Deductive/Logical Fallacy / Non Sequitur / Invalid Deductive Argument(s) - Hasty Generalization / Generalization Instinct (PSY, Rosiing) ‘= Inconsistency discounting (disregard information that is not consistent with previous items) = Post hoc ergo propter hoc / Post-hoc Fallacy / After-This-Therefore-Because-of-This Fallacy = Red Herring / Smoke Screen — Straw Man (Fallacy) 4 “If you're not with me, then you're against me.” 1 Aki nines veliink, az elleniink van.” 1 * Either we pass this ordinance or there will be rioting in the streets. 1 * Ifyou don't support my decision, you were never really my friend 1 * Nature Nurture (BIO/EDU) Faultline (Evolutionary Biology, Sir Galton) 1 Appeal to Fear / Intimidation / Scaremongering / Threat(s) 4 fehér ember 1 fekete ember 1 hamis dilemma/dichotémia / fekete-fehér, igen-nem redukcié / éldilemma 1 Ramadan: Islam > Both Body and Soul not either or 1 THE EVIL 4 THE GOOD 1 Try to overcome your cognitive biases as much as possible 0 BacklinksDunning-Kruger effect / Impostor syndrome (the more you know, the less confident you're likely to be, the less you know the more you overestimate your abilities)(HU:imposztor szindréma) Dunning-Kruger effect / Impostor syndrome (the more you know, the less confident you're likely to be, the less you know the more you overestimate your abilities)(HU:imposztor szindroéma) 39 Mapped Links 1 Benson: Cognitive Bias Codex (2016) Dunning, David (social psychologist)(Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, US) Cognitive Abilities/Capacities/Skills Cognitive Biases/Heuristics / Inductive/Logical Fallacies / Irrational Heuristics CONFIDENCE BOOSTING (to act we must be confident that we can make an impact) Cornell University (Ithaca, NY, US) Effect(s) Egoist/Self-serving Biases Ignorance Inferiority Complex / Lack of (covert) self-esteem (PSY Adler) Issues - Psychology (510+) knowledge Research/Science-Related Biases / Research Bias (56+)1 Self-Appraisal (HU: énbecsilés, pozitiv énkép) T Self-Confidence 1 Self-esteem 1 Yourbias.is (portal) = BIAS-EX (560+) = Actor/Observer Bias ‘= Barnum/Forer Effect / Astrologer's Certainty (Forer 1948) — Beneffectance / Self-serving Bias (SSB) ~ Chauffeur Knowledge = Curse of Knowledge = Defensive Attribution / "Because" Justification = Effort Heuristic/Justification / IKEA Effect ~ Egocentric Bias = Epistemic fallacy / intensional fallacy / Masked men fallacy (illicit use of Leibniz's law which states that, if one object has a certain property, while another object does not have the same property, the two objects cannot be identical) False Consensus Effect / Egocentric Attribution Effect - Fundamental Attribution Effect/Error / Correspondence bias (Ross) + Hard-easy effect (overestimate the probability of one’s success at a task perceived as hard, and to underestimate the likelihood of one's success at a task perceived as easy) «Illusion of control (if you believe you can alter a situation it will effectively help you forget that you can't) Illusory superiority / Above-average/Better-than-average effect / Lake Wobegon effect (when sy overestimates one's own qualities and abilities in relation to the same qualities and abilities of other persons)(HU: Wobegon-hatés, ndrcisztikus torzités)(PSV Myers) ‘= imposztor szindréma (HU) + Obsequiousness bias / Social desirability bias (answer questions in a way you think is. favoured by others, projecting a pos image of oneself) (HU: megfelelési vagy?) = Optimism Bias/lllusion / Wishful Thinking ‘= Overconfidence Bias/Effect/Trap / Illogical Self-confidence = Peltzman Effect / Risk Compensation = Third-person effect/hypothesis (the belief that mass media messages have a greater effect on others than on ourselves) = Trait Ascription Bias 0 Backlinks Binary Thinking