BAS 151 Statistics

Chapter 3

Probability – Basic Rules

Prof. Taher Bazan

 Contents

1. Basic definitions

2. Venn diagrams and relations among events

3. DeMorgan’s Law

4. Probability: meaning and definition

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 Basic definitions

➢ Observation: We shall refer to any recording of information, whether it be

numerical (Ex: 0,31,15, …) or categorical (Ex: D defective, N non-defective), as
an observation

➢ Experiment: Any process that generates a set of data.

➢ Sample Space (S): The set of all possible outcomes of an experiment.

➢ Event: A set of possible outcomes that share a common attribute from the
sample space. In other words, Events are a subset of the sample space.

The following examples illustrate these concepts.

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 Example 1

In tossing a coin two times and recording the number of observed heads
and tails, identify the experiment and the sample space.

Sol.

Experiment: Toss a coin 2 times; record the number of observed heads (each
one as an “ H ”) and tails (each one as a “ T ”).

Sample space: The set S defined by

S = { HH, HT, TH, TT }

Thus, the sample space is consisting of all possible 4 outcomes

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 Example 2

In rolling a die and recording the number of observed faces, identify the
experiment and the sample space.

Sol.

Experiment: Roll a die 1 time; record the number of observed faces.

Sample space: The set S defined by

S = {1,2,3,4,5,6}

Thus, the sample space is consisting of all possible 6 outcomes

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 Example 3

In tossing a coin 3 times and recording the number of observed heads and
tails, identify the experiment and the sample space.

Sol.

Experiment: Toss a coin 3 times; record the number of observed heads (each
one as an “H”) and tails (each one as a “T”).

Sample space: The set S defined by

S = { HHH,HHT,HTH,HTT,THH,THT,TTH,TTT }

Thus, the sample space is consisting of all possible 8 outcomes

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 Example 4
In rolling two dice and recording the number of observed faces
1. Identify the experiment and the sample space.
2. Write the event A that presents equal faces.
3. Write the event B that produces sum of faces more than 8.
4. • Write the event C that gives sum divisible by 5.
Sol.
Experiment: Rolling two dice; record the number of observed faces.

Sample space: The set S defined by

S = {(1, 1), (1, 2), (1, 3), (1, 4), (1, 5), (1, 6), (2, 1), (2, 2), (2, 3), (2, 4), (2, 5), (2, 6),
(3, 1), (3, 2), (3, 3), (3, 4), (3, 5), (3, 6), (4, 1), (4, 2), (4, 3), (4, 4), (4, 5), (4, 6), (5, 1),
(5, 2), (5, 3), (5, 4), (5, 5), (5, 6), (6, 1), (6, 2), (6, 3), (6, 4), (6, 5), (6, 6)}

Thus, the sample space is consisting of all possible 36 outcomes

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 Example 4
2. Write the event A that presents equal faces.
3. Write the event B that produces sum of faces more than 8.
4. Write the event C that gives sum divisible by 5

Sample space: The set S defined by

S = { (1, 1), (1, 2), (1, 3), (1, 4), (1, 5), (1, 6), (2, 1), (2, 2), (2, 3), (2, 4), (2, 5), (2, 6),
(3, 1), (3, 2), (3, 3), (3, 4), (3, 5), (3, 6), (4, 1), (4, 2), (4, 3), (4, 4), (4, 5), (4, 6), (5, 1),
(5, 2), (5, 3), (5, 4), (5, 5), (5, 6), (6, 1), (6, 2), (6, 3), (6, 4), (6, 5), (6, 6) }

Event A that presents equal faces

A = { (1, 1), (2, 2), (3, 3), (4, 4), (5, 5), (6, 6) }
Event B that produces sum of faces more than 8.

B = {(3, 6), (6, 3), (4, 5), (5, 4), (4, 6), (6, 4), (5, 5), (5, 6), (6, 5), (6, 6)}.
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 Example 4
4. Write the event C that gives sum divisible by 5

Sample space: The set S defined by

S = { (1, 1), (1, 2), (1, 3), (1, 4), (1, 5), (1, 6), (2, 1), (2, 2), (2, 3), (2, 4), (2, 5), (2, 6),
(3, 1), (3, 2), (3, 3), (3, 4), (3, 5), (3, 6), (4, 1), (4, 2), (4, 3), (4, 4), (4, 5), (4, 6), (5, 1),
(5, 2), (5, 3), (5, 4), (5, 5), (5, 6), (6, 1), (6, 2), (6, 3), (6, 4), (6, 5), (6, 6) }

Event C that gives sum divisible by 5:

C = { (1, 4), (4, 1), (2, 3), (3, 2), (5, 5), (4, 6), (6, 4) }

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 Venn diagrams and relations among events

Venn diagrams: The sample space S is represented as consisting of all the points
in a large rectangle, and the events A. B, C,. . ., are represented as consisting of all
the points in given circles within the rectangle.

❑ Events of interest can then be indicated by

shading appropriate regions of the diagram.

❑ we shall define unions, intersections, differences, and complements.

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 Venn diagrams and relations among events
Intersection of events A and B is an events
consisting of outcomes that are common in all
these events. It occurs if each A and B occurs
and therefore, corresponds to the word

“AND”: A and B Notation: 𝑨∩𝑩

A Union of events A and B is an events

consisting of all the outcomes in all these
events. It occurs if any A, B occurs and
therefore, corresponds to the word

“OR”: A or B Notation: 𝑨∪𝑩

𝑨∪𝑩=𝑨+𝑩− 𝑨∩𝑩
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 Venn diagrams and relations among events
A complement of events A is an event that occurs
every time when A does not occur. It consists of
outcomes excluded A, and therefore, corresponds
to the word

“NOT”: not A Notation: 𝑨𝑪

A difference of events A and B consists of all

outcomes included in A but excluded in B. It occurs
when A occurs and B does not, and therefore,
corresponds to the word “BUT NOT”:

A but not B Notation: 𝑨 ∩ 𝑩𝑪

𝑨 ∩ 𝑩𝒄 = 𝑨 − (𝑨 ∩ 𝑩)
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 Venn diagrams and relations among events

The two events A and B are disjoint or mutually

exclusive if their intersection is empty, i.e.,
Notation: 𝐀∩𝐁=∅

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 Example 5
Suppose that a family is leaving on a summer vacation in their camper and that M is
the event that they will experience mechanical problems, T is the event that they will
receive a ticket for committing a traffic violation, and V is the event that they will
arrive at a campsite with no vacancies. Referring to the Venn diagram of opposite
figure, state in words the events represented by the following regions:
i. region 5. ii. region 3.
iii. regions 1 and 2 together.
iv. regions 4 and 6 together.
v. regions 3, 6, 7, and 8 together.
iiv. region 8

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 Example 5

Sol.
i- region 5:
𝑴 ∩ 𝑻𝒄 ∩ 𝑽𝒄
ii- region 3:
𝑽 ∩ 𝑻 ∩ 𝑴𝒄
ii- regions 1 and 2 together:
𝑴∩𝑽
iv- regions 4 and 6 together: 𝑻 ∩ 𝑽𝒄

v- regions 3, 6, 7, and 8 together: 𝑴𝒄

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iiv- region 8: 𝑽𝒄 ∩ 𝑻𝒄 ∩ 𝑴𝒄
 DeMorgan’s Law

𝑐 𝐵𝑐
𝐴∪𝐵 𝐴𝑐

𝐴∪𝐵 𝑐 𝑐
=𝐴 ∩𝐵 𝑐 𝐴𝑐 ∩ 𝐵𝑐

❑ Let A, B and C are events such that 𝐴 ⊂ 𝑆, 𝐵 ⊂ 𝑆 and C ⊂ 𝑆. Then

𝑐
𝐴∪𝐵∪𝐶 = 𝐴𝑐 ∩ 𝐵𝑐 ∩ 𝐶 𝑐
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 DeMorgan’s Law
❑ Let A, B and C are events such that 𝐴 ⊂ 𝑆, 𝐵 ⊂ 𝑆 and C ⊂ 𝑆. Then

𝑐
𝐴∩𝐵∩𝐶 = 𝐴𝑐 ∪ 𝐵𝑐 ∪ 𝐶 𝑐

❑ Several results that follow from the foregoing definitions, which may easily be
verified by means of Venn diagrams, are as follows:

1- 𝐴 ∩ ∅ = ∅ 2- 𝐴 ∪ ∅ = 𝐴

3- 𝐴 ∩ 𝐴𝑐 = ∅ 4- 𝐴 ∪ 𝐴𝑐 = 𝑆
5- 𝑆 𝑐 = ∅ 6- 𝐴𝑐 𝑐
=𝐴
𝑐 = 𝐴𝑐 ∪ 𝐵𝑐
7- 𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 𝑐 = 𝐴𝑐 ∩ 𝐵𝑐 8- 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵
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𝑐
𝐴∪𝐵∪𝐶 = 𝐴𝑐 ∩ 𝐵𝑐 ∩ 𝐶 𝑐
 Example 6
3
If A and B are two events in the sample space S such that 𝑃(𝐴) = ,
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1 1
𝑃(𝐵) = and 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = . Find:
2 4

(i) 𝑃(𝐴𝑐 ∩ 𝐵𝑐 ). (ii) 𝑃(𝐴𝑐 ∪ 𝐵𝑐 ).

(iii) 𝑃(𝐵 ∩ 𝐴𝑐 ). (iv) 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵𝑐 ).

Sol.
𝑺

𝑩 𝑨

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 Example 6
𝑺
3 1 1
𝑃(𝐴) = , 𝑃(𝐵) = and 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = . Find:
8 2 4
𝑩 𝑨
𝑐 𝑐 𝑐 𝑐
(ii) 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 ) (iii) 𝑃(𝐵 ∩ 𝐴 ). (iv) 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 ).

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 Example 7
3
If A and B are two events in the sample space S such that 𝑃(𝐴) = and
5

1
𝑃(𝐴𝑐 ∩ 𝐵𝑐 ) = . Find P(B) in each of the following cases:
4

(i) A and B are disjoint events.

(ii) 𝐴 ⊂ 𝐵.
𝑺 𝑩
Sol. (i) A and B are disjoint events 𝑨

𝑺
𝑨 𝑩

1 1 3
20 = 1 − 𝑃(𝐵) 𝑃(𝐵) = 1 − 𝑃 𝐵 =
4 4 4
 Probability: meaning and definition
➢ Let 𝑆 = 𝑠1 , 𝑠2 , 𝑠3 ,· · · , 𝑠𝑛 be the sample space of a given random
experiment with equally likely outcomes. Suppose that 𝐸 ⊂ 𝑆 be a
given event.

➢ Let N denotes the number of outcomes (elements or points) in S and n

denotes the number of outcomes in E, then the probability P(E) of an
event E is given by:

number of the outcomes in E 𝑛

𝑃 𝐸 = =
number of the outcomes in S 𝑁

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 Probability: meaning and definition

𝑃(𝑆) = 1 𝑃 𝐸𝑐 = 1 − 𝑃 𝐸 𝑃(∅) = 0

❑ If A and B are mutually exclusive

𝑃 𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐴 + 𝑃(𝐵)

❑ If A and B are not mutually exclusive

𝑃 𝐴∪𝐵 =𝑃 𝐴 +𝑃 𝐵 −𝑃 𝐴∩𝐵
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 Example 8

In tossing the coin three times. Draw the tree diagram and find the
probability of the following events
(i) A: obtaining at least two heads.
(ii) B: obtaining at most two heads.
(iii) C: getting two tails and one head.
(iv) D: getting exactly one tails.

Sol.

Tree diagram

S = { HHH, HHT, HTH, HTT, THH, THT, TTH, TTT }.

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 Example 8
S = { HHH, HHT, HTH, HTT, THH, THT, TTH, TTT } 𝑁=8

(i) A: obtaining at least two heads.

𝑛𝐴 4
A = { HHH,HHT,THH,HTH }, 𝑛𝐴 = 4 𝑃 𝐴 = =
𝑁 8

(ii) B: obtaining at most two heads.

𝑛𝐵 = 7
𝑛𝐵 7
B = {HHT,HTH,HTT,THH,THT,TTH,TTT }, 𝑃 𝐵 = =
𝑁 8
(iii) C: getting two tails and one head.
𝑛𝐶 = 3
𝑛𝐶 3
C = {HTT,THT,TTH}, 𝑃 𝐶 = =
𝑁 8
(iv) D: getting exactly one tail.
𝑛𝐷 = 3
D = {HHT, HTH,THH }, 𝑛𝐷 3
24 𝑃 𝐷 = =
𝑁 8
 Example 9
In rolling two dice. Find the probability of the following:
(i) A: the number appears on the first die is greater than the second die.
(ii) B: the sum of faces is greater than 8.
(iii) C: the sum is divisible be 5.
(iv) D: the faces are equal.
(v) 𝐵 ∩ 𝐶.
(vi) 𝐵 ∩ 𝐷.

Sol.

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 Example 9
i) The number appears on the first die is
greater that the second die.

A = {(2, 1), (3, 1), (4, 1), (5, 1), (6, 1), (3, 2),
(4, 2), (5, 2), (6, 2), (4, 3), (5, 3), (6, 3), (5, 4),
(6, 4), (6, 5)},

𝑛𝐴 15 N = 36
𝑃 𝐴 = =
𝑁 36

ii) The sum of faces is greater than 8

B = {(4, 5), (5, 4), (6, 3), (3, 6), (5, 5), (4, 6), (6, 4), (6, 5), (5, 6), (6, 6)}
𝑛𝐵 10
𝑃 𝐵 = =
𝑁 36
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 Example 9

iii) The sum is divisible be 5

𝑛𝑐 7
C = {(1, 4), (4, 1), (2, 3), (3, 2), (5, 5), (4, 6), (6, 4)} 𝑃 𝐶 = =
𝑁 36

iv) The faces are equal.

𝑛𝐷 6 1
D = {(1, 1), (2, 2), (3, 3), (4, 4), (5, 5), (6, 6)} 𝑃 𝐷 = = =
𝑁 36 6

3
(v) 𝐵 ∩ 𝐶 = {(5, 5), (4, 6), (6, 4)} 𝑃(𝐵 ∩ 𝐶) =
36

2
(vi) 𝐵 ∩ 𝐷 = {(5, 5), (6, 6)} 𝑃(𝐵 ∩ 𝐶) =
36

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B = {(4, 5), (5, 4), (6, 3), (3, 6), (5, 5), (4, 6), (6, 4), (6, 5), (5, 6), (6, 6)}
 Example 10
A die is loaded in such a way that the even numbers are twice as
likely to occurs as the odd numbers. Find the probability of the
following events:
(i) A: the number has perfect square.
(ii) B: the number is greater than 3 and smaller than or equal 5.
(iii) C: the number is divisible by 3.
(iv) D: the number is divisible by 4.
which of the pervious events are mutually exclusive?
Sol.

S = {1,2,3,4,5,6}
1 2
𝑃 1 =𝑃 3 =𝑃 5 =9 𝑃 2 =𝑃 4 =𝑃 6 =
9

(i) A: the number has perfect square.

1 2 3
𝐴 = {1,4} 𝑃(𝐴) = 𝑃(1) + 𝑃(4) =
9
+ = .
9 9
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 Example 10
S = {1,2,3,4,5,6}
1 2
𝑃 1 =𝑃 3 =𝑃 5 =9 𝑃 2 =𝑃 4 =𝑃 6 =
9
(ii) B: the number is greater than 3 and smaller than or equal 5.
(iii) C: the number is divisible by 3.
(iv) D: the number is divisible by 4.
which of the pervious events are mutually exclusive?

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 Example 11
A box contains 5 red balls, 6 green balls and 4 blue balls. A ball is drawn at
random from the box. Find
(i) The probability that the ball is green.
(ii) The probability that the ball is red or blue.
(iii) The probability that the ball is not red.
(iv) The probability that the ball is green or blue.
Sol.

56 4

𝑃 𝐺∩𝐵 =0
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 Thank You

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