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DE VEAUX DE VEAUX VELLEMAN BOCK VUKOV WONG
S TAT S
VELLEMAN
BOCK
VUKOV
WONG
S TAT S
DATA AND MODELS
THIRD CANADIAN EDITION
DATA AND MODELS

www.pearson.com 90000
ISBN 978-0-13-430105-1
9 780134 301051
This page intentionally left blank
Selected Formulas
Range = Max - Min

IQR = Q3 - Q1
Outlier Rule-of-Thumb: y 6 Q1 - 1.5 * IQR or y 7 Q3 + 1.5 * IQR
ay
y =
n
a (y - y)
2
s =
B n - 1
y - m
z = (model based)
s
y - y
z = (data based)
s
a zxzy
r =
n - 1
sy
yn = b0 + b1x where b1 = r and b0 = y - b1x
sx
P(A) = 1 - P(AC)
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B)
P(A and B) = P(A) * P(B A)
P(A and B)
P(B A) =
P(A)
A and B are independent if P(B A) = P(B). Then P(A and B) = P(A) * P(B)
E(X) = m = g x P(x ) Var(X) = s2 = g (x - m)2 P(x )

E(X { c) = E(X) { c Var(X { c) = Var(X)
E(aX) = aE(X) Var(aX) = a2Var(X)
E(X { Y ) = E(X) { E(Y ) Var(X { Y) = Var(X) + Var(Y) if X and Y
are independent
x n-x
Binomial: P(x) = nCxp q m = np s = 1npq
x pq
pn = m(pn ) = p SD(pn ) =
n An
Sampling distribution of y:
(CLT) As n grows, the sampling distribution approaches the Normal model with
s
m(y) = m SD(y) =
1n
CVR_DEVE1051_03_SE_FEP.indd 726 14/11/17 10:49 AM

Inference:
Confidence interval for Parameter = Estimate ; Critical value * SE(Estimator)
Estimate - Parameter
Test statistic = [Replace SE by SD if latter is known]
SE(Estimator)
Parameter Estimator SD (Estimator) SE (Estimator)
pq pn qn
p pn
A n Bn
p1q1 p2q2 pn 1qn 1 pn 2qn 2

p1 - p2 pn 1 - pn 2 + +
A n1 n2 B n1 n2
s s
m y 1n 1n
s21 s22 s21 s22

m1 - m2 y1 - y2 + +
B n1 n2 B n1 n2
sd sd
md d 1n 1n
a (y - yn )
2 (divide by n - k - 1
se se = in multiple
B n - 2 regression)
se
(in simple
b1 b1
regression) sx 2n - 1
(in simple s2e

mn yn n
regression) SE 2(b1) # (xn - x)2 +
B n
(in simple s2e

yn yn n
regression) SE 2(b1) # (xn - x)2 + + s2e
B n
y1 + y2
Pooling: For testing difference between proportions: pnpooled =
n1 + n2
(n1 - 1)s21 + (n2 - 1)s22

For testing difference between means (when s1 = s2): sp =
B n1 + n2 - 2
Substitute these pooled estimates in the respective SE formulas for both groups when
assumptions and conditions are met.
Chi-square: x2 = a
(Obs - Exp)2
Exp
One-way ANOVA: SST = a a (yj - y)2; MST = SST >(k - 1)

SSE = a a (yij - yj) ;
2
MSE = SSE >(N - k)
F = MST >MSE with df = (k - 1, N - k)
CVR_DEVE1051_03_SE_FEP.indd 727 14/11/17 10:49 AM

STATS
DATA AND MODELS
A01_DEVE1051_03_SE_FM.indd 1 08/11/17 3:54 PM

STATS DATA AND MODELS
RICHARD D. DE VEAUX PAUL F. VELLEMAN DAVID E. BOCK

WILLIAMS COLLEGE CORNELL UNIVERSITY CORNELL UNIVERSITY
AUGUSTIN M. VUKOV AUGUSTINE C.M. WONG

UNIVERSITY OF TORONTO YORK UNIVERSITY

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If you purchased this book outside the United States or Canada, you should be aware that it has been imported without the
approval of the publisher or the author.
9780134301051
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
Library and Archives Canada Cataloguing in Publication
De Veaux, Richard D., author
Stats : data and models / Richard D. De Veaux, Williams College, Paul F.
Velleman, Cornell University, David E. Bock, Cornell University, Augustin
M. Vukov, University of Toronto, Augustine C.M. Wong, York University.—
Third Canadian edition.
Includes index.
ISBN 978-0-13-430105-1 (hardcover)
1. Statistics—Textbooks. 2. Mathematical statistics—Textbooks.

I. Velleman, Paul F., 1949-, author II. Bock, David E., author III. Vukov,
Augustin M., author IV. Wong, Augustine C. M., author V. Title.
QA276.12.D42 2017 519.5 C2017-902493-0

To Sylvia, who has helped me in more ways than she’ll ever know,
and to Nicholas, Scyrine, Frederick, and Alexandra,
who make me so proud in everything that they are and do
—Dick
To my sons, David and Zev, from whom I’ve learned so much,

and to my wife, Sue, for taking a chance on me
—Paul
To Greg and Becca, great fun as kids and great friends as adults,
and especially to my wife and best friend, Joanna, for her
understanding, encouragement, and love
—Dave
To my adopted country, Canada, its amazing citizens,

indigenous peoples, immigrants and refugees, whose stories inspire me,
and the University of Toronto without which this
dedication would never have happened.
—Gus
To Camilla and Octavia for their

understanding and encouragement
—Augustine

Meet the Authors
Richard D. De Veaux is an internationally known educator and consultant. He has

taught at the Wharton School and the Princeton University School of Engineering, where
he won a “Lifetime Award for Dedication and Excellence in Teaching.” Since 1994, he
has been Professor of Statistics at Williams College. Dick has won both the Wilcoxon and
Shewell awards from the American Society for Quality. He is a fellow of the American
Statistical Association (ASA). In 2008, he was named Statistician of the Year by the Boston
Chapter of the ASA. Dick is also well known in industry, where for more than 25 years
he has consulted for such Fortune 500 companies as American Express, Hewlett-Packard,
Alcoa, DuPont, Pillsbury, General Electric, and Chemical Bank. Because he consulted with
Mickey Hart on his book Planet Drum, he has also sometimes been called the “Official
Statistician for the Grateful Dead.” His real-world experiences and anecdotes illustrate
many of this book’s chapters.
Dick holds degrees from Princeton University in Civil Engineering (B.S.E.) and
Mathematics (A.B.) and from Stanford University in Dance Education (M.A.) and Statistics
(Ph.D.), where he studied dance with Inga Weiss and Statistics with Persi Diaconis. His
research focuses on the analysis of large data sets and data mining in science and industry.
In his spare time, he is an avid cyclist and swimmer. He also is the founder of the
“Diminished Faculty,” an a cappella Doo-Wop quartet at Williams College and sings bass
in the college concert choir. Dick is the father of four children.
Paul F. Velleman has an international reputation for innovative Statistics education. He

is the author and designer of the multimedia Statistics program ActivStats, for which he
was awarded the EDUCOM Medal for innovative uses of computers in teaching statistics,
and the ICTCM Award for Innovation in Using Technology in College Mathematics. He
also developed the award-winning statistics program, Data Desk, and the Internet site
Data and Story Library (DASL) (lib.stat.cmu.edu/DASL/), which provides data sets for
teaching Statistics. Paul’s understanding of using and teaching with technology informs
much of this book’s approach.
Paul has taught Statistics at Cornell University since 1975. He holds an A.B. from
Dartmouth College in Mathematics and Social Science, and M.S. and Ph.D. degrees in
Statistics from Princeton University, where he studied with John Tukey. His research often
deals with statistical graphics and data analysis methods. Paul co-authored (with David
Hoaglin) ABCs of Exploratory Data Analysis. Paul is a Fellow of the American Statistical
Association and of the American Association for the Advancement of Science. Paul is the
father of two boys.
David E. Bock taught mathematics at Ithaca High School for 35 years. He has taught
Statistics at Ithaca High School, Tompkins-Cortland Community College, Ithaca College,
and Cornell University. Dave has won numerous teaching awards, including the MAA’s
Edyth May Sliffe Award for Distinguished High School Mathematics Teaching (twice),
Cornell University’s Outstanding Educator Award (three times), and has been a finalist for
New York State Teacher of the Year.
Dave holds degrees from the University at Albany in Mathematics (B.A.) and Statistics/
Education (M.S.). Dave has been a reader and table leader for the AP Statistics exam, serves
as a Statistics consultant to the College Board, and leads workshops and institutes for AP
Statistics teachers. He has recently served as K–12 Education and Outreach Coordinator
and a senior lecturer for the Mathematics Department at Cornell University. His understand-
ing of how students learn informs much of this book’s approach.
Dave and his wife relax by biking or hiking, spending much of their free time in
Canada, the Rockies, or the Blue Ridge Mountains. They have a son, a daughter, and four
grandchildren.
vii

viii Meet the Authors
Augustin M. Vukov has been teaching at the University of Toronto for several decades.
For much of that time, he was the course coordinator for The Practice of Statistics—a large
multi-section course designed to introduce the basic concepts and practice of Statistical
Science to students from a great variety of (mostly non-mathematical) disciplines. Having
taught so many students their required Stats course, he was not surprised to hear his new
family doctor, his new ophthalmologist and a prospective new dentist say “Your name
looks familiar. Ah yes, I used to sit in your Statistics lecture!”. A big fan of MinitabTM
software for use in introductory Statistics courses, he has also authored several Minitab
manuals.
Augustine C.M. Wong is a professor of Statistics at York University. He completed

his Ph.D. at the University of Toronto in 1990 and taught at the University of Waterloo and
University of Alberta before coming to York in 1993. His research interests include asymp-
totic inference, computational methods in statistics, and likelihood-based methods. He is an
author or co-author of over 80 research articles and 2 book chapters. At York, he teaches
various statistics courses at both the undergraduate and graduate levels.

Contents
Prefacexiii
Part I Exploring and Understanding Data

1 Stats Starts Here 1
1.1 What Is Statistics? ■ 1.2 Data ■ 1.3 Variables
2 Displaying and Describing Categorical Data 17

2.1 Summarizing and Displaying a Single Categorical Variable
■ 2.2 Exploring the Relationship Between Two Categorical Variables
3 Displaying and Summarizing Quantitative Data 50

3.1 Displays for Quantitative Variables ■ 3.2 Shape ■ 3.3 Centre
■ 3.4 Spread ■ 3.5 Boxplots and 5-Number Summaries ■ 3.6 The Centre of
Symmetric Distributions: The Mean ■ 3.7 The Spread of Symmetric

Distributions: The Standard Deviation ■ 3.8 Summary—What to Tell
About a Quantitative Variable
4 Understanding and Comparing Distributions 98

4.1 Comparing Groups ■ 4.2 Comparing Boxplots ■ 4.3 Outliers
■ 4.4 Timeplots: Order, Please! ■ 4.5 Re-expressing Data: A First Look
5 The Standard Deviation as a Ruler and the Normal Model 131

5.1 Standardizing with z-Scores ■ 5.2 Shifting and Scaling ■ 5.3 Density
Curves and the Normal Model ■ 5.4 Finding Normal Percentiles
■ 5.5 Normal Probability Plots
Part I Review: Exploring and Understanding Data 165
Part II Exploring Relationships Between Variables

6 Scatterplots, Association, and Correlation 177
6.1 Scatterplots ■ 6.2 Correlation ■ 6.3 Warning:
Correlation Z Causation ■ *6.4 Straightening Scatterplots
7 Linear Regression 210

7.1 Least Squares: The Line of “Best Fit” 7.2 The Linear Model
■
■ 7.3 Finding the Least Squares Line ■ 7.4 Regression to the Mean
■ 7.5 Examining the Residuals ■ 7.6 R2—The Variation Accounted
For by the Model ■ 7.7 Regression Assumptions and Conditions
8 Regression Wisdom 246

8.1 Examining Residuals ■ 8.2 Outliers, Leverage, and Influence
■ 8.3 Extrapolation: Reaching Beyond the Data ■ 8.4 Cautions
Part II Review Exploring Relationships Between Variables 280

*Optional section.
ix

x Contents
Part III Gathering Data

9 Sample Surveys 290
9.1 The Three Big Ideas of Sampling ■ 9.2 Populations and
Parameters ■ 9.3 Simple Random Samples ■ 9.4 Other Sampling
Designs ■ 9.5 From the Population to the Sample: You Can’t Always
Get What You Want ■ 9.6 The Valid Survey ■ 9.7 Common Sampling
Mistakes, or How to Sample Badly
10 Experiments and Observational Studies 319

10.1 Observational Studies ■ 10.2 Randomized, Comparative
Experiments ■ 10.3 The Four Principles of Experimental Design
■ 10.4 Control Treatments ■ 10.5 Blocking ■ 10.6 Confounding
Part III Review: Gathering Data 348
Part IV Randomness and Probability

11 From Randomness to Probability 354
11.1 Random Phenomena ■ 11.2 Modelling Probability ■ 11.3 Formal
Probability Rules ■ 11.4 The General Addition Rule
12 Probability Rules! 374

12.1 Probability on Condition
■ 12.2 Independence and the
Multiplication Rule ■ 12.3 Picturing Probability: Tables,
Venn Diagrams, and Trees ■ 12.4 Reversing the Conditioning and Bayes’ Rule
13 Random Variables 399

13.1 Centre: The Expected Value or Mean ■ 13.2 Spread: The Variance and
Standard Deviation ■ 13.3 Combining Random Variables
■ 13.4 The Binomial Model ■ *13.5 The Poisson Model
■ 13.6 Continuous Models ■ 13.7 Approximating the
Binomial with a Normal Model ■ *13.8 The Continuity Correction
Part IV Review: Randomness and Probability 440
Part V From the Data at Hand to the World at Large

14 Sampling Distribution Models 446
14.1 Sampling Distribution of a Proportion
■ 14.2 When Does the
Normal Model Work? Assumptions and Conditions ■ 14.3 The Sampling
Distribution of Other Statistics ■ 14.4 The Central Limit Theorem: The
Fundamental Theorem of Statistics ■ 14.5 Sampling Distributions: A Summary
*Optional section.
A01_DEVE1051_03_SE_FM.indd 10 11/24/17 10:23 AM

Contents xi
15 Confidence Intervals for Proportions 476

15.1 A Confidence Interval ■ 15.2 Interpreting Confidence Intervals: What
Does “95% Confidence” Really Mean? ■ 15.3 Margin of Error: Certainty
versus Precision ■ 15.4 Assumptions and Conditions ■ *15.5 The Plus Four
Confidence Interval for Small Samples ■ *15.6 Large Sample Confidence
Intervals
16 Testing Hypotheses About Proportions 503

16.1 Hypotheses ■ 16.2 P-Values ■ 16.3 The Reasoning of Hypothesis
Testing ■ 16.4 Alternative Alternatives ■ 16.5 P-Values and Decisions: What
to Tell About a Hypothesis Test ■ *16.6 Large Sample Tests of Hypothesis
17 More About Tests 527

17.1 Choosing the Hypotheses ■ 17.2 How to Think About P-Values
■ 17.3 Alpha Levels and Significance ■ 17.4 Critical Values for
Hypothesis Tests ■ 17.5 Decision Errors ■ 17.6 Power and Sample Size
18 Inferences About Means 559

18.1 The Sampling Model for the Sample Mean ■ 18.2 Gosset’s t
■ 18.3 A t-Interval for the Mean ■ 18.4 Hypothesis Test for the Mean
■ 18.5 Determining the Sample Size
Part V Review: From the Data at Hand to the World at Large 595
Part VI Assessing Associations Between Variables

19 Comparing Means 602
19.1 Comparing Means of Independent Samples ■ 19.2 The Two-Sample
t-Test ■ 19.3 The Pooled t-Test ■ 19.4 Determining the Sample Size
20 Paired Samples and Blocks 637

20.1 Paired t-Test ■ 20.2 Assumptions and Conditions ■ 20.3 Paired t
Confidence Interval ■ 20.4 Effect Size and Sample Size ■ 20.5 Blocking
■ *20.6 A Non-Parametric Alternative: The Sign Test
21 Comparing Two Proportions 666

21.1 The Standard Deviation of the Difference Between Two
Proportions ■ 21.2 Assumptions and Conditions When Comparing
Proportions ■ 21.3 A Confidence Interval for the Difference Between
Two Proportions ■ 21.4 The z-Test for a Difference Between Proportions
22 Comparing Counts 690

22.1 Goodness-of-Fit ■ 22.2 Chi-Square Test of Homogeneity
■ 22.3 Examining the Residuals ■ 22.4 Chi-Square Test of Independence
23 Inferences for Regression 725

23.1 A Regression Model ■ 23.2 Standard Errors of
Parameter Estimates ■ 23.3 Regression Inference
*Optional section.

xii Contents
■ 23.4 Confidence and Prediction Intervals for the Response Variable

■ 23.5 Correlation Test ■ *23.6 The Analysis of Variance (ANOVA)
for Regression ■ *23.7 Logistic Regression
Part VI Review: Assessing Associations Between Variables 773
Part VII Modelling the World at Large

24 Analysis of Variance 787
24.1 Testing Whether the Means of Several Groups Are Equal
■ 24.2 The Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) ■ 24.3 Assumptions and Conditions
■ 24.4 Comparing Means ■ 24.5 ANOVA on Observational Data
25 Multifactor Analysis of Variance 826

25.1 A Two-Factor ANOVA Model ■ 25.2 Assumptions and
Conditions ■ 25.3 Adding Interaction to the Model
26 Multiple Regression 862

26.1 What is Multiple Regression? 26.2 Interpreting Multiple Regression
■
Coefficients ■ 26.3 Model Assumptions and Conditions ■ 26.4 Multiple

Regression Inference ■ 26.5 Comparing Multiple Regression Models
27 Multiple Regression Wisdom 893

27.1 Indicator Variables ■ 27.2 Diagnosing Regression Models:
Looking at the Cases ■ 27.3 Building Multiple Regression Models
Part VII Review: Modelling the World at Large 930
Part VIII Distribution-free Methods

28 Nonparametric Tests 944
28.1 Wilcoxon Rank Sum Test ■ 28.2 Kruskal-Wallis Test ■ 28.3 Wilcoxon
Signed Rank Test for Paired Data ■ 28.4 Friedman Test for a Randomized
Block Design ■ 28.5 Rank Correlation
29 The Bootstrap 972

29 The Bootstrap (online only)
29.1 The Basic Idea ■ 29.2 Bootstrapping the Sampling Distribution
of a Sample Mean ■ 29.3 Bootstrapping the Standard Error
■ 29.4 Confidence Intervals ■ 29.5 Bootstrapping with the Median
■ 29.6 Bootstrap Assumptions and Conditions ■ 29.7 More Complicated
Data Structures
Appendixes
A Answers A-1 ■ B Index B-1 ■ C Tables C-1
*Optional section.

Preface
We are often asked why we write Statistics texts. After all, it takes a lot of work to find
new and better examples, to keep datasets current, and to make a book an enjoyable and
effective learning tool. So we thought we’d address that question first.
We do it because it’s fun.
Of course, we care about teaching students to think statistically; we are teachers and
professional statisticians. And we want to change the way students think about the world.
But Statistics can be a particularly challenging subject to teach. The student encounters
many new concepts, many new methods, and many new terms. Our challenge has been
to write a book that students would read, learn from, and enjoy. And we recommit to this
goal with each new edition.
The book you hold is more succinct and, we hope, even more readable than previous
editions. Of course, we’ve kept our conversational style and background anecdotes.1 But
we’ve tightened discussions and adjusted the order of some topics. The story we tell about
Statistics moves even more quickly to interesting real-world questions.
Increasingly teachers are using examples from Statistics to provide intuitive exam-
ples of how a little bit of math can help us say a lot about the world. Students expect
Statistics to be about real-world insights. This edition of Stats: Data and Models keeps
students engaged and interested because we show Statistics in action right from the start.
Students will be solving problems of the kind they’re likely to encounter in real life
sooner. In Chapter 4, they will be comparing groups and in Chapter 6, they’ll see rela-
tionships between two quantitative variables—and, of course, always with real, modern
data. By emphasizing statistical thinking, these early chapters lay the foundation for the
more advanced chapters on Analysis of Variance and Multiple Regression at the end of
the book, telling a consistent story throughout.
We hope our book will help students realize Statistics can be fun, useful, and empow-
ering. There are few things more rewarding than discovering the world anew through the
lens of statistical analysis. And few things more fun for authors than helping students
make those discoveries.
So, What’s New in This Edition?

We’ve scrutinized literally every sentence and paragraph throughout the book, and rewrit-
ten many sections to make them clearer and more interesting, along with introducing
some new up-to-the-minute motivating examples.
We’ve added some new features, each with the goal of making it even easier for stu-
dents to put the concepts of Statistics together into a coherent whole.
1. New and improved pedagogical tools: We’ve replaced the list of sections at the
start of each chapter with a more informative list of Learning Objectives. We’ve
also replaced Where Are We Going with Connections, while deleting the similarly
named item that used to sit (we believe, almost invisibly) at the end of chapters in
earlier editions. Chapter study materials at the end of chapters still include What
Have We Learned including the Review of Terms. Students who understand the
latter items are well prepared for future chapters (not to mention well on their way
to being ready for any tests).
2. Streamlined content: Our reorganization has shortened the book from 30 to 29
chapters (Chapter 29 is only available as part of the eText in MyLabTM Statistics).
We’ve also grouped some important concepts, in new and better presentation
orders. Each chapter is still a focused discussion, and most can be taught in one
lesson.
1
and our footnotes.
xiii

xiv Preface
3. Content changes: Here’s how we’ve reorganized or changed the content:

a. W
e’ve reorganized material in Chapter 3: Displaying and Summarizing
Quantitative Data. Instead of measures of centre followed by measures of
spread, we start with the more intuitive measures: median, IQR, and 5-number
summary, followed later by the mean and standard deviation.
b. W
e’ve removed the chapter Understanding Randomness, while moving its sec-
tion on Random Numbers into the following chapter on Sample Surveys.
c. We’ve tried to improve the organization of material in Parts V–VII:
• Inference About Means appears earlier now, in Part V. We still lead the dis-
cussion of inference with inference for proportions (for reasons we explain
in the Test Bank and Resource Guide), but now we turn sooner to inference
for means so students can see the methods side by side. Students can then
also see that the reasoning is essentially the same.
• Comparing Two Proportions was moved from Part V to Part VI, so that it
now follows the similar discussion for comparing two means, with the chap-
ter on chi-square tests immediately after.
• Inference for Regression was moved from Part VII to Part VI, where it more
logically belongs, though in the same chapter order as before.
e’ve added an optional section on the Regression ANOVA to the Inference
d. W
for Regression chapter.
4. Section Exercises: A new feature of this edition is the inclusion of Section
Exercises. In addition to the usual end-of-chapter exercises, at the end of each
section, you will now find these new single-concept exercises.
5. Exercises: We’ve updated most exercises that use real-world data, retired some
that were getting old, and added new exercises. As in previous editions, many
of the exercises feature Canadian content and data with up-to-date references to
Indigenous peoples, sports, health care, education, the environment, and other
social and political issues.
Our Approach
Statistical Science is practiced with technology. We think a modern Statistics text should
recognize that fact from the start. And so do our students. You won’t find tedious calcula-
tions worked by hand. But you will find equation forms that favour intuition over calcu-
lation. You’ll find extensive use of real data—even large data sets. And, most important,
you’ll find a focus on statistical thinking rather than calculation. The question that moti-
vates each of our hundreds of examples is not “how do you find the answer?” but “how
do you think about the answer?”
We’ve been guided in the choice and order of topics by several fundamental prin-
ciples. First, we have tried to ensure that each new topic fits into the growing structure
of understanding that we hope students will build. We know that learning a new subject
like Statistics requires putting together many new ideas, and we have tried to make that
process as natural as possible. That goal has led us to cover some topics in a different
order than is found in other texts.
For example, we introduce inference by looking at a confidence interval for a pro-
portion rather than the more traditional approach that starts with the one-sample mean.
Everyone has seen opinion polls. Most people understand that pollsters use a sample
of voters to try to predict the preferences of the entire population and that the result
is an estimate with a margin of error. Showing how to construct and interpret a confi-
dence interval in this context introduces key concepts of inference in a familiar setting.

Preface xv
We next examine hypothesis tests for a proportion, which use formulas and a test sta-
tistic that is now familiar, so it is easier to focus on the logic and structure of a formal
hypothesis test. When we then turn our attention to the topic of small-sample inference
for means, the only new issue is the t-distribution. However, should you wish to discuss
the z-test and confidence interval for means (known sigma or large n) earlier, in tandem
with the z-procedures for proportions, optional sections are included in those chapters.
Textbooks can be defined more by what they choose not to cover than by what they
do cover. We’ve structured this text so that each new topic fits into a student’s growing
understanding. Several topic orders can support this goal. While this text contains mate-
rial sufficient for two semesters, it offers good choices for those teaching a one-semester
course, for which we recommend coverage of Chapters 1–21, followed by (time per-
mitting) one or more of Chapters 22, 23, 24, and 28. Some topics in Chapters 9–10 on
sampling and experimental design may be de-emphasized or omitted entirely depending
on the needs of the particular audience. Likewise, the material on probability and random
variables in Chapters 11–13 is considerable and portions may be de-emphasized. Optional
sections, indicated by asterisks, are indeed just that and may be omitted without harm. We
have also differentiated the coverage in our Canadian edition from its U.S. counterpart in
some ways. We added two additional chapters (authored by A. Vukov), on nonparametric
procedures (Chapter 28) and bootstrapping (Chapter 29). We also consistently put more
emphasis on power & sample size issues for tests of hypothesis.
GAISE Guidelines
The Guidelines for Assessment and Instruction in Statistics Education (GAISE) report
adopted by the American Statistical Association urges that Statistics education should
1. emphasize Statistical literacy and develop Statistical thinking,
2. use real data,
3. stress conceptual understanding rather than mere knowledge of procedures,
4. foster active learning,
5. use technology for developing concepts and analyzing data, and
6. make assessment a part of the learning process.
We’ve designed our text and supporting materials to encourage this approach to the
introductory course. We urge you to think about these guidelines with each class meeting.
Our Goal: Read This Book!

The best text in the world is of little value if students don’t read it. Here are some of the
ways we have made this edition even more approachable:
• Readability. This book doesn’t read like other Statistics texts. Our style is both col-
loquial and informative, engaging students to actually read the book to see what it
says. We’ve tightened the discussions and removed digressions.
• Humour. We know that humour is the best way to promote learning. You will
find quips and wry comments throughout the narrative, in margin notes, and in
footnotes.
• Informality. Our informal diction doesn’t mean that we treat the subject matter
lightly or informally. We try to be precise and, wherever possible, we offer deeper
explanations and justifications than those found in most introductory texts.
• Focused lessons. The chapters are shorter than in most other texts so instructors
and students can focus on one topic at a time.
• Consistency. We try to avoid the “do what we say, not what we do” trap. Having
taught the importance of plotting data and checking assumptions and conditions,

xvi Preface
we model that behavior right through the rest of the book. (Check, for example,
the exercises in Chapter 23. You’ll see that we still require and demonstrate the
plots and checks that were introduced in the early chapters.) This consistency
helps reinforce these fundamental principles.
• The need to read. Students who plan just to skim the book may find our presentation
frustrating. The important concepts, definitions, and sample solutions don’t sit in
little boxes. Statistics is a consistent story about how to understand the world when
we have data. The story can’t be told piecemeal. This is a book that needs to be read,
so we’ve tried to make the reading experience enjoyable.
Mathematics
Mathematics can
1. provide a concise, clear statement of important concepts.
2. describe calculations to be performed with data.
3. embody proofs of fundamental results.
Of these, we emphasize the first. Mathematics can make discussions of Statistics con-
cepts, probability, and inference clear and concise. We don’t shy away from using math
where it can clarify without intimidating. But we know that some students are put off by
equations, so we always provide a verbal description and a numerical example as well.
Some theorems about Statistics are quite interesting, and many are important. Often,
though, their proofs are not enlightening to introductory Statistics students and can dis-
tract the audience from the concepts we want them to understand. So we avoid them here.
Nor do we slide in the opposite direction and concentrate on calculation. Although
Statistics calculations are generally straightforward, they are also usually tedious. And,
more to the point, they are often unnecessary. Today, virtually all statistics are calculated
with technology, so there is little need for students to spend time summing squared devia-
tions by hand. We have selected the equations that do appear for their focus on illuminat-
ing concepts and methods. Although these equations may be the best way to understand
the concepts, they may not be optimal for hand calculation. When that happens, we give
an alternative formula, better suited for hand calculation, for those who find following the
process a better way to learn about the result.
Technology and Data

To experience the real world of Statistics, use modern technology to explore real data sets.
Technology. We assume that you are using some form of technology—a statistics package,
a calculator, a spreadsheet, or some combination of these—in your Statistics course. We
also assume that you’ll put little emphasis on calculating answers by hand, even though
we often show how. However, this is not a technology-heavy book. The role of technology
in this book is to get the calculations out of the way so we can focus on statistical thinking.
We discuss generic computer output, but we don’t adopt any particular statistics software.
We do offer guidance to help students get started on eight common software platforms:
Excel®, Minitab®, JMP®, SPSS®, TI-83/84 Plus graphing calculators, StatCrunch®, and
R®. StatCrunch can be accessed through MyLab Statistics, available from Pearson with
the text. The On the Computer section at the end of most chapters is specific to the
methods learned in that chapter.
Data. Because we use technology for computing, we don’t limit ourselves to small,
artificial data sets. You’ll find some small data sets, but we also base examples and exer-
cises on real data with a moderate number of cases—usually more than you would want
to enter by hand into a program or calculator. Machine-readable versions of the data,
appropriate for a variety of statistical packages, are included on the book’s website,
www.pearsoncanada.ca/deveaux.

Preface xvii
New and Continuing Features
Enhancing Understanding
Learning Objectives and Connections. Each chapter starts with a brief summary of the
chapter’s key learning objectives, as well as a paragraph or two that point out the kinds of
questions students will learn how to answer in the chapter and how this connects with or
builds on earlier material in the text.
Each chapter ends with a What Have We Learned? summary, which includes new learn-
ing objectives and definitions of terms introduced in the chapter. Students can think of
these as study guides.
In each chapter, our innovative What Can Go Wrong? sections highlight the most com-
mon errors that people make and the misconceptions they have about Statistics. One of
our goals is to arm students with the tools to detect statistical errors and to offer practice
in debunking misuses of statistics, whether intentional or not.
Margin and in-text boxed notes. Throughout each chapter, boxed margin and in-text notes
enhance and enrich the text. Boxes with essential or practical information are screened.
Conversational notes that enhance the text and entertain the reader are unscreened.
Math Boxes. In many chapters we present the mathematical underpinnings of the statisti-
cal methods and concepts. By setting these proofs, derivations, and justifications apart from
the narrative, we allow the student to continue to follow the logical development of the
topic at hand, yet also refer to the underlying mathematics for greater depth.
By Hand. Even though we encourage the use of technology to calculate statistical quanti-
ties, we realize the pedagogical benefits of occasionally doing a calculation by hand. The
By Hand boxes break apart the calculation of many simpler formulas to help the student
through the calculation of a worked example.
Reality Check. We regularly remind students that Statistics is about understanding the
world with data. Results that make no sense are probably wrong, no matter how careful-
ly we think we did the calculations. Mistakes are often easy to spot with a little thought,
so we often ask students to stop for a reality check before interpreting their result.
Notation Alert. Throughout this book, we emphasize the importance of clear communica-
tion, and proper notation as part of the vocabulary of Statistics. We’ve found that it helps
students when we are clear about the letters and symbols statisticians use to mean very
specific things, so we’ve included Notation Alerts whenever we introduce a special nota-
tion that students will see again.
Learning by Example
For Example. As we introduce each important concept, we provide a focused example
applying it—often with real up-to-the-minute data. Many For Examples carry the discus-
sion through the chapter, picking up the story and moving it forward as students learn more
about the topic.
Step-by-Step Examples: Think, Show, Tell. Step-by-Step examples repeat the mantra
of Think, Show, and Tell in every chapter. These longer, worked examples guide students
through the process of analyzing the problem with the general explanation on the left and
the worked-out problem on the right. They emphasize the importance of thinking about a
Statistics question (What do we know? What do we hope to learn? Are the assumptions and
conditions satisfied?) and reporting our findings (the Tell step). The Show step contains the
mechanics of calculating results and conveys our belief that it is only one part of the process.

xviii Preface
The result is a better understanding of the concept, not just number crunching. In this edition,
we’ve updated many Think, Show, Tell Step-by-Step examples with new demonstrations
and data.
Testing Understanding
Just Checking. Just Checking questions are quick checks throughout the chapter; most
involve very little calculation. These questions encourage students to pause and think about
what they’ve just read. The Just Checking answers are at the end of the exercise sets in each
chapter so students can easily check themselves.
Exercises. We’ve added section-specific single-concept exercises at the end of almost
every section so students can be sure they have a clear understanding of each important
topic before they’re asked to tie them all together in more comprehensive exercises at
chapter end. Chapter exercises have been updated with the most recent data available.
Many come from news stories; some from recent research articles. Whenever possible,
the data are available on MyLab Statistics and the Companion Website for the book so
students can explore them further.
Technology
Data Sources. Most of the data used in examples and exercises are from real-world sourc-
es, and whenever we can, we include references to the Internet data sources used, often in
the form of URLs. The data we use are usually on MyLab Statistics and the Companion
Website. If you seek the data—or an updated version of the data—on the Internet, we try
to direct you to a good starting point.
On the Computer. In the real world, Statistics is practiced with computers. We prefer not
to choose a particular Statistics program. Instead, at the end of most chapters, we sum-
marize what students can find in the most common packages, often with annotated output.
We then offer specific guidance for several of the most common packages (Excel®, JMP®,
Minitab®, R®, SPSS®, StatCrunch®, and TI-83/84 Plus2) to help students get started with
the software of their choice.
2
For brevity, we will write TI-83/84 Plus for the TI-83 Plus and/or TI-84 Plus. Keystrokes and output remain the
same for the TI-83 Plus and the TI-84 Plus, so instructions and examples serve for both calculators.

Supplements
For Instructors • MyLab Statistics can be successfully implemented in

any environment—lab-based, hybrid, fully online,
Instructor resources are password protected and available for traditional—and demonstrates the quantifiable differ-
download via the Pearson online catalogue at http://catalogue. ence that integrated usage has on student retention,
pearsoned.ca. subsequent success, and overall achievement.
Instructor’s Solutions Manual. This resource provides com- • MyLab Statistics’ comprehensive online gradebook auto-
plete, detailed, worked-out solutions for all the exercises in matically tracks students’ results on tests, quizzes, home-
the textbook and is available through the online catalogue in work, and in the study plan. Instructors can use the grade-
both PDF and Word formats. book to provide positive feedback or intervene if students
TestGen and Test Item File. For your convenience, our test have trouble. Gradebook data can be easily exported to a
bank is available in two formats. TestGen is a computerized variety of spreadsheet programs, such as Microsoft Excel.
testbank containing a broad variety of multiple-choice, short You can determine which points of data you want to
answer, and more complex problem questions. Questions can export, and then analyze the results to determine success.
be searched and identified by question type, level of difficulty,
and skill type (computational or conceptual). Each question MyLab Statistics provides engaging experiences that per-
has been checked for accuracy and is available in the latest sonalize, stimulate, and measure learning for each student. In
version of TestGen software. This software package allows addition to the following resources, each course includes a
instructors to custom design, save, and generate classroom full interactive online version of the accompanying textbook.
tests. The test program permits instructors to edit, add, or • Tutorial Exercises with Multimedia Learning Aids:
delete questions from the test bank; edit existing graphics The homework and practice exercises in MyLab Statistics
and create new ones; analyze test results; and organize a align with the exercises in the textbook, and they regener-
database of tests and student results. This software allows for ate algorithmically to give students unlimited opportunity
greater flexibility and ease of use. It provides many options for practice and mastery. Exercises offer immediate helpful
for organizing and displaying tests, along with search and sort feedback, guided solutions, sample problems, animations,
features. The same questions can also be found in a Test Item videos, and eText clips for extra help at point-of-use.
File available in Word format. The TestGen testbank and Test
• StatTalk Videos: 24 Conceptual Videos to Help You
Item File can be downloaded from the online catalogue.
Actually Understand Statistics. Fun-loving statistician
PowerPoint® Presentations. These PowerPoint® lecture Andrew Vickers takes to the streets of Brooklyn, New
slides provide an outline to use in a lecture setting, presenting York, to demonstrate important statistical concepts through
definitions, key concepts, and figures from the textbook. These interesting stories and real-life events. These fun and engag-
lecture slides can be downloaded from the online catalogue. ing videos will help students actually understand statistical
Image Library. The Image Library provides access to many concepts. Available with an instructor’s user guide and
of the images, figures, and tables in the textbook and is avail- assessment questions.
able to instructors on the online catalogue. • Getting Ready for Statistics: A library of questions now
appears within each MyLab Statistics to offer the develop-
For Students mental math topics students need for the course. These can
Student Solutions Manual. This solutions manual provides be assigned as a prerequisite to other assignments, if desired.
complete worked-out solutions to all of the odd-numbered • Conceptual Question Library: In addition to algorith-
exercises in the book, expanding on the answers provided in mically regenerated questions that are aligned with your
the Appendix at the back of the text. textbook, there is a library of 1000 Conceptual Questions
Companion Website. The Companion Website provides available in the assessment manager that requires students
additional resources (and data files) for instructors and stu- to apply their statistical understanding.
dents: www.pearsoncanada.ca/deveaux. • StatCrunch®: MyLab Statistics integrates the web-based
statistical software, StatCrunch, within the online assess-
Technology Resources ment platform so that students can easily analyze data
MyLabTM Statistics Online Course (access code sets from exercises and the text. In addition, MyLab
Statistics includes access to www.StatCrunch.com, a
required)
website where users can access more than 15,000 shared
• MyLab Statistics is a course management system that data sets, conduct online surveys, perform complex anal-
delivers proven results in helping individual students yses using the powerful statistical software, and generate
succeed. compelling reports.
xix

xx Supplements
• Statistical Software Support: Knowing that students • Use the study plan and/or the homework to link directly
often use external statistical software, we make it easy to to tutorial exercises for the objectives they need to study.
copy our data sets, both from the eText and the MyLab • Students can also access supplemental animations and
Statistics questions, into software such as StatCrunch, video clips directly from selected exercises.
Minitab, Excel, and more. Students have access to a variety
of support tools—Technology Tutorial Videos, Technology MathXL for Statistics is available to qualified adopters. For
Study Cards, and Technology Manuals for select titles—to more information, visit our website at www.mathxl.com, or
learn how to effectively use statistical software. contact your Pearson representative.
And, MyLab Statistics comes from a trusted partner with
educational expertise and an eye on the future. StatCrunch®
• Knowing that you are using a Pearson product means StatCrunch is powerful web-based statistical software that
knowing that you are using quality content. That means allows users to perform complex analyses, share data sets, and
that our eTexts are accurate and our assessment tools work. generate compelling reports of their data. The vibrant online
Whether you are just getting started with MyLab Statistics, community offers more than 15,000 data sets for students to
or have a question along the way, we’re here to help you analyze.
learn about our technologies and how to incorporate them • Collect. Users can upload their own data to StatCrunch or
into your course. search a large library of publicly shared data sets, span-
To learn more about how MyLab Statistics combines proven ning almost any topic of interest. Also, an online survey
learning applications with powerful assessment, visit www. tool allows users to quickly collect data via web-based
mystatlab.com or contact your Pearson representative. surveys.
• Crunch. A full range of numerical and graphical meth-
MathXL® for Statistics Online Course ods allow users to analyze and gain insights from any
(access code required) data set. Interactive graphics help users understand sta-
tistical concepts, and are available for export to enrich
MathXL is the homework and assessment engine that runs
reports with visual representations of data.
MyLab Statistics. (MyLab Statistics is MathXL plus a learn-
ing management system.) • Communicate. Reporting options help users create a
wide variety of visually-appealing representations of
With MathXL for Statistics, instructors can: their data.
• Create, edit, and assign online homework and tests using
Full access to StatCrunch is available with MyLab Statistics,
algorithmically generated exercises correlated at the
and StatCrunch is available by itself to qualified adopters.
objective level to the textbook.
StatCrunch Mobile is now available to access from your
• Create and assign their own online exercises and import mobile device. For more information, visit our website at www.
TestGen tests for added flexibility. StatCrunch.com, or contact your Pearson representative.
• Maintain records of all student work, tracked in
MathXL’s online gradebook.
With MathXL for Statistics, students can:
• Take chapter tests in MathXL and receive personalized
study plans and/or personalized homework assignments
based on their test results.

Acknowledgments
A very big thanks goes to Shivon Sue-Chee for her hard work on the exercise sections,
data sets, and appendix solutions. Her hard work and conscientiousness were, as always,
a marvel. Also, a big thanks to Aaron Springford and Andy Leung for their very precise
work in updating the Instructor’s Solutions Manual.
Thank you also to the team at Pearson who supported the revision of this text throughout
the writing and production process including Paul Donnelly, Senior Content Developer;
Pippa Kennard, Project Manager; Emily Dill, Content Manager; and Mark Grzeskowiak,
Acquisitions Editor.
Finally, thank you to the reviewers who provided feedback on our work and helped guide
our plans for this new edition, including:
James Adcock, University of Waterloo
Nancy Chibry, University of Calgary
Torben Drewes, Trent University
Tracy Finlay, Fleming College
Renzo Gomez, Durham College
Erin Kirk, Fleming College
Michele Millar, Mount Saint Vincent University
Julie Orsini, Durham College
Scott Robison, University of Calgary
Tim Swartz, Simon Fraser University
Asokan Mulayath Variyath, Memorial University of Newfoundland
xxi

Index of Application
Note: (E) 5 Exercise, (FE) 5 For Example, (JC) 5 Just Checking, (IE) 5 in-text example (SBS) 5 Step-by-Step
Agriculture Oranges (E) Ch 13, p. 402, p. 405

Weighing bears (E) Ch 1, p. 13–14
American Angus Association (FE) Ch 18, p. 560
BST (E) Ch 20, p. 664
Cloud seeding (E) Ch 4, p. 122–123
Business
Ephedra (E) Ch 9, p. 316
Absenteeism (E) Ch 12, p. 397
Fertilizers (E) Ch 24, p. 821–822
Accounting (E) Ch 9, p. 317
Genetically modified corn (JC) Ch 12, p. 386
Ad campaign (E) Ch 19, p. 631–632
Grass species (IE) Ch 2, p. 43
Assets (E) Ch 4, p. 128
Peas (E) Ch 25, p. 860
Bank tellers (E) Ch 13, p. 435
Pesticides (E) Part VII Review, p. 939
Bookstore sales (E) Ch 7, p. 217, p. 222, p. 226
Seeds (E) Ch 14, p. 470
CEO (E) Ch 14, p. 471
Sprouts (E) Ch 25, p. 855
Cosmetic marketing (E) Ch 11, p. 382 Ch 12, p. 395, p. 396
Tiny black potato flea beetles (JC) Ch 22, p. 704
Credit card charges (E) Ch 18, p. 586
Tomatoes (E) Ch 5 p. 162–163 Ch 10 p. 323, p. 329, p. 332,
p. 343 Dairy sales (E) Part VI review, p.782–783
Vineyards (E) Ch 1 p. 14 Part II Review, p. 281 Part III Review, E-commerce (E) Ch 10, p. 321
p. 352 Expected value (E) Ch 13, p. 430
Fire insurance (E) Ch 11, p. 370
Fraud detection (E) Part I Review, p. 167–168
Arts and Literature Frumpies (E) Ch 10, p. 344

Hiring (E) Ch 15, p. 500
Barbershop music (E) Part VII Review, p. 933–934
Industrial experiment (E) Ch 4, p. 124
Lefties and music (E) Part VII Review, p. 935
Industry codes (E) Ch 3, p. 91
Mozart (E) Ch 10, p. 344
Insurance (E) Ch 13, p. 431 Part IV Review, p. 442
Music and memory (E) Part I Review p. 173 Ch 19, p. 635
Interest rates (E) Ch 8, p. 269, p. 270
Music students (E) Ch 28, p. 967
Labour force (E) Part VI Review, p. 782
Pottery (E) Ch 6, p. 200–201 Part VI Review, p. 777
Loans (E) Ch 17, p. 553–554
Rap (E) Ch 19, p. 635
Marketing (E) Ch 14, p. 450
Rock concert accidents (E) Ch 3, p. 96
Market segments (E) Ch 8, p. 250
Singers (E) Part I Review p. 166
Mutual funds (E) Ch 27, p. 931
Online insurance (E) Ch 20, p. 658–659
Pay (E) Part I Review, p. 174–175
Biology Payroll (E) Ch 3, p. 87 Ch 5, p. 157
Beetles (E) Ch 10, p. 346 Profits (E) Part I Review, p. 176 Part II Review, p. 289
Bird counts (IE) Ch 3, p. 89 Quality control (E) Part IV Review, p. 440
Cattle (E) Ch 5, p. 158 Real estate (E) Ch 7, p. 235–236 Ch 11, p. 371
Crocodile (E) Part II Review, p. 285 Receptionist performance (E) Ch 26, p. 888
Cuckoos (E) Ch 19, p. 635 Ch 28, p. 970 Revenue and ticket sales (E) Ch 8, p. 250
Eggs (E) Ch 5 p. 162 Ch 13, p. 432 Revenue (E) Ch 8, p. 256
Elephants and hippos (E) Ch 8, p. 271 Sales and Profits (E) Ch 23, p. 765, p. 766
Feeding fish (E) Part VI Review, p. 778 Sex sells (E) Ch 20, p. 656
Fish (E) Ch 9, p. 317–318 Sick days (E) Ch 3, p. 86–87
Fruit flies (E) Ch 22, p. 717 Software (E) Ch 13, p. 431
Gators (E) Ch 7, p. 243 Stock market (E) Ch 13, p. 430
Irises (E) Part VI Review, p. 784 Stocks (E) Part IV Review, p. 442
Manatees (E) Part II Review, p. 282–283 Tips (E) Ch 10, p. 323, p. 329, p. 332 Part III Review, p. 350
xxiii

xxiv Index of Application
TV ads (E) Ch 16, p. 526 Math and Gender (E) Ch 20, p. 662
Workers (E) Part IV Review, p. 440–441 Math learning (E) Part VII Review, p. 939
Math scores (E) Ch 3, p. 91–92 Ch 4, p. 121, p. 123 Ch 8,
p. 274–275
Economics Misinterpretations (E) Ch 7, p. 237
Online testing (E) Part VI Review, p. 783
Cell phone costs (E) Ch 8, p. 256
Ontario students (E) Ch 19, p. 633 Ch 28, p. 967
Cost of living (E) Ch 7, p. 240
PISA reading scale (E) Part VI Review, p. 782
Credit card spending (E) Ch 8, p. 249
Placement exams (E) Ch 5, p. 157
Family income (E) Ch 3, p. 95
Professors (E) Ch 5, p. 158
Fuel economy (E) Ch 1, p. 14 Ch 6, p. 202–203 Ch 9, p. 317
Race and education (E) Ch 22, p. 723
High Net Worth Individuals (HNWI) (IE) Part I Review, p. 171
Ranking university (E) Ch 22, p. 723–724
House prices (IE) Ch 3, p. 89
Reading (E) Ch 4, p. 122 Ch 8, p. 268 Ch 10, p. 345 Ch 19,
Human Development Index (E) Ch 6, p. 208, p. 209
p. 630
Math and gender (E) Ch 7, p. 244–245
Recruiting (E) Part VI Review, p. 786
Money and degrees (E) Ch 7, p. 235, p. 236
Sampling students (E) Ch 9, p. 297
Prices comparison (FE) Ch. 6, p. 180, p. 188
SAT or ACT (E) Ch 5, p. 157 Ch 7, p. 237–238
Revenue and talent cost (E) Ch 8, p. 249–250
SAT test (JC) Ch. 5, p. 136, p. 164
Schools (E) Ch 1, p. 14
Statistics journals (E) Ch 19, p. 634–635
Education Study habits (E) Part VII Review, p. 934–935
Ad campaign (E) Ch 19, p. 627–628 Summer school (E) Ch 19, p. 631 Ch 20, p. 660
Art students (E) Ch 28, p. 967 Survey students (E) Ch 9, p. 306
Bernoulli trials (E) Ch 13, p. 433 Teach for America (E) Part VI Review, p. 782
Census at school (E) Ch 6, p. 206–207 Ch 8, p. 277 Test scores (E) Ch 3 p. 85
Climate change (E) Ch 7, p. 241 TOEFL score (E) Ch 5, p. 160–162
College (E) Ch 7, p. 238 Part II Review, p. 281 Toronto students (E) Part I Review, p. 174
Cramming (E) Part I Review p. 168 Part II Review, p. 283–284
Part VII Review, p. 942
Dollars (E) Part II Review, p. 287–288 Entertainment
Education by age (E) Ch 22, p. 723 Big screen TVs (E) Part II Review, p. 286
Family planning (E) Part VI Review, p. 786 Computer gaming (E) Ch 21, p. 687
Final exams (E) Ch 5, p. 158 Ch 26, p. 886, p. 887 Gambling (E) Ch 11, p. 372 Ch 15, p. 499
French vocabulary test (E) Part II Review, p. 287 Hurricane predictions (E) Ch 23, p. 759
Freshman (E) Ch 20, p. 656, p. 663 Movie budgets (E) Ch 23, p. 759–760
Gender and school (E) Part VI Review, p. 780–781 Movie dramas (E) Ch 8, p. 266–267
GPA and SATs (E) Ch 26, p. 888–889 MTV (E) Ch 20, p. 656
GPA (E) Ch 8, p. 268 Roller coasters (E) Ch 6 p. 201, p. 206 Ch 9, p. 315–316
Grades (E) Ch 8, p. 268 Part II Review, p. 283 Ch 22, p. 721
Ch 23, p. 768 Ch 26, p. 890–891
Graduate admissions (E) Ch 2, p. 48 Environment
Graduation (E) Ch 4, p. 118–119 Acid rain (E) Part I Review p. 167 Part II Review, p. 282 Ch 23,
Hard water (E) Ch 7, p. 242–243 p. 764–765
Height and reading (E) Ch 6, p. 204 Biomass of trees (E) Ch 1, p. 13
Homecoming (E) Part III Review, p. 351 Blackjack (E) Ch 5, p. 162
Hurricane Katrina (FE), p. 220 Climate change (E) Ch 27, p. 923–924
Internet-based TOEFL test (iBT) (SBS) Ch. 5, p. 137 Cold (E) Ch 5, p. 157 Ch 11, p. 370
Kindergarten (E) Ch 5, p. 161 Craters (FE) Ch 23, p. 729–730, p. 744–745
Learning math (E) Ch 19, p. 627–628 Earthquake in Japan (IE) Ch 3, p. 50
LSAT scores (E) Ch 10, p. 346 Forest fire (E) Ch 2, p. 39–40
Lunchtime (E) Part II Review, p. 288 Global warming (E) Ch 2, p. 41 (JC) Ch 26, p. 874

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guided to them by the light of a cross which blazed before him in the
heavens. The church honored him with the name of “good and
faithful servant;” but there are Christian hearths in Alsatia where he
is still whisperingly spoken of as “the accursed butcher.”
When his own fingers began to hold less firmly the handle of his
sword, he also began to look among his children for those who were
most likely to carry out the mission of his house. His eye marked,
approvingly, the bearing of his eldest son Francis, Count D’Aumale;
and had no less satisfaction in the brothers of Francis, who, whether
as soldiers or priests, were equally ready to further the interests of
Lorraine, and call them those of Heaven. His daughter Mary he gave
to James V. of Scotland; and the bride brought destruction for her
dowry. Upon himself and his children, Francis I., and subsequently
Henry II., looked at last with mingled admiration and dread. Honors
and wealth were lavished upon them with a prodigal and even
treasonable liberality. The generous king gave to the insatiate Guise
the property of the people; and when these complained somewhat
menacingly, Guise achieved some new exploit, the public roar of
applause for which sanctioned a quiet enjoyment of his ill-gotten
treasures.
For the purpose of such enjoyment he retired to his castle at
Joinville. The residence was less a palace than a monastery. It was
inhabited by sunless gloom and a deserted wife. The neglected
garden was trimmed at the coming of the duke, but not for his sake
nor for that of the faithful Antoinette. Before the eyes of that faithful
wife he built a bower for a mistress who daily degraded with blows
the hero of a hundred stricken fields. He deprecated the rough usage
of the courtesan with tears and gold; and yet he had no better
homage for the virtuous mother of his children, than a cold civility.
His almost sudden death in 1550 was accounted for as being the
effect of poison, administered at the suggestion of those to whom his
growing greatness was offensive. The accusation was boldly graven
on his monument; and it is probably true. No one however, profited
by the crime.
The throne found in his children more dangerous supporters than he
had ever been himself; and the people paid for their popular
admiration with loss of life and liberty. The church, however, exulted;
for Claude of Lorraine, first Duke of Guise, gave to it the legitimate
son, Cardinal Charles, who devised the massacre of the day of St.
Bartholomew; and the illegitimate son, the Abbé de Cluny, who, on
that terrible day, made his dagger drink the blood of the Huguenots,
till the wielder of it became as drunk with frenzy as he was wont to
be with the fiery wine which was his peculiar and intense delight.
The first Duke of Guise only laid a foundation, upon which he left his
heirs and successors to build at their discretion. He had,
nevertheless, effected much. He had gained for his family
considerable wealth; and if he had not also obtained a crown, he had
acquired possession of rich crown-lands. The bestowing upon him of
these earned popular execration for the king; the people, at the
same time, confessed that the services of Guise were worthy of no
meaner reward. When King Francis saw that he was blamed for
bestowing what the recipient was deemed worthy of having granted
to him, we can hardly wonder that Francis, while acknowledging the
merits of the aspiring family, bade the members of his own to be on
their guard against the designs of every child of the house of
Lorraine.
But he was no child who now succeeded to the honors of his father,
the first duke. Francis of Guise, at his elevation to the ducal title, saw
before him two obstacles to further greatness. One was a weak king,
Henry II.; and the other, a powerful favorite, the Constable de
Montmorency, from whose family, it was popularly said, had sprung
the first Christian within the realm of France. Francis speedily
disposed of the favorite, and almost as speedily raised himself to the
vacant office, which he exercised so as to further his remote
purposes. In the meantime the king was taught to believe that his
crown and happiness were dependent on his Lorraine cousins, who,
on their side, were not only aiming at the throne of France for one
member of the house, but were aspiring to the tiara for a second; the
crown of Naples for a third—to influence in Flanders and in Spain,
and even to the diadem of Elizabeth of England, succession to which
was recognised as existing in them, by Mary Stuart, in case of her
own decease without direct heirs. It is said that the British Romanists
looked forward with unctuous complacency to the period when the
sceptre of this island should fall into the blood-stained grasp of a
“Catholic Guise.”
It was not only the fortune of Francis to repair the ill luck
encountered in the field by Montmorency, but to gain advantages in
fight, such as France had not yet seen. The Emperor Charles V. had
well-nigh got possession of beleaguered Metz, when Guise threw
himself into the place, rescued it from the Emperor, and swept the
Imperialists out of France. His fiery wrath cooled only in presence of
the wounded, to whom he behaved with gentle and helping courtesy.
His gigantic labors here brought on an attack of fever; and when he
was compelled to seek rest in his house at Marchez, a host of priests
and cardinals of his family gathered round his court, and excited him
to laughter by rough games that suited but sorrily with their calling.
The second duke inherited his father’s hatred for “heretics.” The
great Colligny had been his bosom friend; but when that renowned
Reformer gave evidence of his new opinions upon religious subjects,
then ensued, first a coldness, then fits of angry quarrelling, and at
last a duel, in which, though neither combatant was even scratched,
friendship was slain for ever. Duke Francis was prodigal like his
father, but then his brother, Cardinal Charles, was minister of the
finances: and the king and his mistress, Diana de Poictiers, cared
not how the revenue was managed, so that money was forthcoming
when necessity pressed. The consequence was, that the king’s
exchequer was robbed to supply the extravagances of Guise. But
then men began to associate with the name the idea of deliverance
from oppression; and they did not count the cost. And yet victory did
not invariably select for her throne the glittering helm of the aspiring
duke. The pope had selected him as commander of the papal army
acting against Naples, but intrigue paralyzed the arm which had
never before been conquered, and the pontiff showered epigrams
upon him instead of laurels.
In this momentary eclipse of the sun of his glory, the duke placed his
own neck under the papal heel. He served in the pope’s chapel as
an Acolyte, meekly bore the mantle of obese and sneering cardinals,
and exhibited a humility which was not without success. When at a
banquet given by a cardinal, Guise humbly sat down at the lower
end of the table, he asked a French officer who was endeavoring to
thrust in below him, “Why comest thou here, friend?” “That it might
not be said,” answered the soldier, “that the representative of the
King of France took the very lowest place at a priest’s table!”
From such reproaches Guise gladly fled, to buckle on his armor and
drive back an invasion of France by the Hispano-Flemings on the
north. The services he now rendered his country made the people
almost forget the infamy of their king, who was wasting life in his
capital, and the oppressive imposts of the financial cardinal, whom
the sufferers punningly designated as Cardinal La Ruine. The ruin he
achieved was forgiven in consideration of the glory accomplished by
his brother, who had defeated and destroyed the armies which
threatened the capital from the north; and who had effected much
greater glory by suddenly falling on Calais with a force of ten to one,
and tearing from the English the last of the conquests till then held
by them in France. Old Lord Wentworth, the governor, plied his
artillery with a roar that was heard on the English coast: but the roar
was all in vain. There was a proverb among our neighbors, and
applied by them to every individual of mediocre qualifications, that
“he was not the sort of man to drive the English out of France.” That
man was found in Guise; and the capital began naturally to contrast
him with the heartless king, who sat at the feet of a concubine, and
recked little of the national honor or disgrace. And yet, the medals
struck to commemorate the recovery of Calais bear the names only
of Henri and Diana. They omit all mention of the great liberator,
Guise!
The faults of Henri, however, are not to be entirely attributed to
himself. He had some feelings of compassion for the wretched but
stout-hearted Huguenots, with whom, in the absence of Guise, he
entered into treaties, which, Guise present, he was constrained to
violate! In pursuit of the visions of dominion in France, and of the
tiara at Rome, the ambitious house sought only to gain the suffrages
of the church and the faithful. To win smiles from them, the public
scaffolds were deluged with the blood of heretics; and all were
deemed so who refused to doff their caps to the images of the virgin,
raised in the highways at the suggestion of the duke and the
cardinal. This terrific persecution begat remonstrance; but when
remonstrance was treated as if it were rebellion, rebellion followed
thereupon; as, perhaps, was hoped for; and the swords of the
Guisards went flashing over every district in France, dealing death
wherever dwelt the alleged enemies of God, who dared to commune
with Him according to conscience, rather than according to Rome.
Congregations, as at Vassi, were set upon and slaughtered in cold
blood, without resistance. In the Huguenot “temple” of this last place
was found a Bible. It was brought to the duke. This noble gentleman
could spell no better than the great Duke of Marlborough; and Guise
was, moreover, worse instructed in the faith which he professed. He
looked into the Book of Life, unconscious of what he held, and with a
wondering exclamation as to what it might be all about, he flung it
aside, and turned to the further slaughter of those who believed
therein.
In such action he saw his peculiar mission for the moment, but he
was not allowed to pursue it unopposed. His intrigues and his
cruelties made rebels even of the princes of the blood; and Condé
took the field to revenge their wrongs, as well as those of the
Reformers. The issue was tried on the bloody day at Dreux, when
the setting sun went down on a Protestant army routed, and on
Condé a captive; but sharing the bed, as was the custom of the time,
of his proved victor Guise. Never did two more deadly enemies lie on
the same couch, sleepless, and full of mutual suspicion. But the
hatred of Condé was a loyal hatred; that of Guise was marked by
treacherous malignity. The Protestant party, in presence of that hot
fury, seemed to melt away like a snow-wraith in the sun. He and his
Guisards were the terror of the so-called enemies of the Faith. Those
whom he could not reach by the sword, he struck down by wielding
against them the helpless hand of the king, who obeyed with the
passiveness of a Marionette, and raised stakes, and fired the pile,
and gave the victim thereto, simply because Guise would so have it.
The duke received one portion at least of his coveted reward. At
every massacre of inoffensive Protestants, the Catholic pulpits
resounded with biblical names, showered down upon him by the
exulting preachers. When his banner had swept triumphantly over
successive fields, whose after-crops were made rich by heretical
blood, then did the church pronounce him to be a soldier divinely
armed, who had at length “consecrated his hands, and avenged the
quarrel of the Lord.”
Guise lived, it is true, at a period when nothing was held so cheap as
life. Acts of cruelty were but too common in all factions. If he
delivered whole towns to pillage and its attendant horrors, compared
with which death were merciful, he would himself exhibit
compassion, based on impulse or caprice. He was heroic, according
to the thinking of his age, which considered heroism as being
constituted solely of unflinching courage. In all other respects, the
duke, great as he was, was as mean as the veriest knave who trailed
a pike in his own bands. Scarcely a letter addressed to his officers
reached them without having been previously read to their right
worshipful master. There was scarcely a mansion in the kingdom,
whose lord was a man of influence, but that at that table and the
hearth there sat a guest who was the paid spy of Francis of Guise.
It is hardly necessary to add that his morality generally was on a par
with the particular specimens we have given of it. Crowds of
courtesans accompanied him to the camp, while he deliberately
exposed his own wife, Anne of Este, the sister of Tasso’s Leonora, to
the insulting homage of a worthless king. Emphatically may it be said
that the truth was not in him. He gloried in mendacity. No other
personage that I can call to mind ever equalled him in lying—except,
perhaps, those very highly professing heroes who swagger in Greek
tragedy. He procured, by a lie, the capital conviction of Condé. The
latter escaped the penalty, and taxed the duke with his falsehood.
Guise swore by his sword, his life, his honor, his very soul, that he
was innocent of the charge. Condé looked on the ducal liar with a
withering contempt, and turned from him with a sarcasm that should
have pierced him like a sword. Pointed as it was, it could not find
way through his corslet to his heart. He met it with a jest, and
deemed the sin unregistered.
There was a watchful public, nevertheless, observing the progress
made toward greatness by the chivalric duke, and his brother the
cardinal. Henry II. had just received the mortal blow dealt him at a
tournament by the lance of Montgomery. Francis II., his brother, the
husband of Mary Stuart, and therewith nephew to Guise, succeeded
to the uneasy throne and painful privileges of Henri. On the night of
this monarch’s decease, two courtiers were traversing a gallery of
the Louvre. “This night,” said one, “is the eve of the Festival of the
Three Kings.” “How mean you by that?” asked the other with a smile.
“I mean,” rejoined the first, “that to-morrow we shall have three
monarchs in Paris—one of them, King of France; the others Kings in
France—from Lorraine.”
Under the latter two, Duke and Cardinal, was played out the second
act of the great political drama of Lorraine. It was altogether a melo-
drama, in which there was abundance of light and shadow. At times,
we find the hero exhibiting exemplary candor; anon, he is the dark
plotter, or the fierce and open slayer of his kind. There are stirring
scenes of fights, wherein his adversaries draw their swords against
him, at the instigation of a disgusted King, who no sooner saw Guise
triumphant, than he devoted to death the survivors whom he had
clandestinely urged into the fray.
The battles were fought, on one side, for liberty of conscience; on
the other, for the sake of universal despotism. The bad side
triumphed during a long season; and field after field saw waving over
it the green banner of Lorraine. Catherine de Medicis, and her son
Charles IX., accompanied the Duke in more than one struggle, after
the short-lived reign of Francis II. had come to an end. They passed,
side by side, through the breach at Rouen; but accident divided them
at Orleans, where had assembled the gallant few who refused to
despair for the Protestant cause.
Guise beleaguered the city, and was menacingly furious at its
obstinacy in holding out. One evening he had ridden with his staff to
gaze more nearly at the walls, from behind which defiance was flung
at him. “You will never be able to get in,” remarked roughly a too
presuming official. “Mark me!” roared the chafed Duke, “yon setting
sun will know to-morrow how to get behind that rampart; and by
Heaven, so will I!” He turned his horse, and galloped back alone to
his quarters. He was encountered on his way by a Huguenot officer,
Poltrot de la Mer, who brought him down by a pistol-shot. The eyes
of the dying Duke, as he lay upon the ground, met for the last time
the faint rays of that departing sun, with which he had sworn to be up
and doing on the morrow. He died in his hut. His condition was one
of extreme “comfortableness.” He had robbed the King’s exchequer
to gratify his own passions;—and he thanked Heaven that he had
been a faithful subject to his sovereign! He had been notoriously
unfaithful to a noble and virtuous wife; and he impressed upon her
with his faltering lips, the assurance that “generally speaking” his
infidelity as a husband did not amount to much worth mentioning! He
confessed to, and was shriven by his two brothers, Cardinals John
and Charles. The former was a greater man than the Duke. The
latter was known in his own times and all succeeding, as “the bottle
cardinal,” a name of which he was only not ashamed, but his title to
which he was ever ostentatiously desirous to vindicate and establish.
The first Duke had acquired possession of crown-lands; the second
had at his disposal the public treasure; and the third hoped to add to
the acquisitions of his family the much-coveted sceptre of the Kings
of France.
Henri, surnamed Le Balafré, or “the scarred,” succeeded his father in
the year 1560. During the greater portion of his subsequent life, his
two principal objects were the destruction of Protestantism, and the
possession of the King’s person. He therewith flattered the national
vanity by declaring that the natural limits of France, on two sides,
were the Rhine and the Danube—an extension of frontier which was
never effected, except temporarily, in the latter days of Napoleon.
But the declaration entailed a popularity on the Duke which was only
increased by his victory at Jarnac, when the French Protestants not
only suffered defeat, but lost their leader, the brave and unfortunate
Condé. This gallant chief had surrendered, but he was basely
murdered by a pistol-shot, and his dead body, flung across an ass,
was paraded through the ranks of the victors, as a trophy. How far
the Duke was an accomplice in the crime, is not determined. That
such incidents were deemed lightly of by him, is sufficiently clear by
his own proclamation in seven languages, wherein he accused
Coligny as the instigator of the murder of the late Duke of Guise, and
set a price upon that noble head, to be won by any assassin.
For that so-called murder, Guise had his revenge on the day of St.
Bartholomew, when he vainly hoped that the enemies of his house
had perished for ever. On the head of more than one member of the
house of Guise rests the responsibility of that terrible day. During the
slaughter, Guise gained his revenge, but lost his love. The cries of
the victims were the nuptial songs chanted at the marriage-
ceremony of Henri of Navarre and Margaret, the King’s sister. The
latter had looked, nothing loath, upon the suit offered to her by
Guise, who was an ardent wooer. But the wooing had been roughly
broken in upon by the lady’s brother, the Duc d’Anjou, who declared
aloud in the Louvre, that if Guise dared look with lover’s eyes upon
“Margot,” he would run his knife into the lover’s throat! The threat
had its influence, and the unfaithful wooer, who had been all the
while solemnly affianced to a Princess Catherine of Cleves, married
that remarkable brunette, and showed his respect for her, by
speaking and writing of her as “that amiable lady, the negress.” It
may be noticed in passing, that the objection of D’Anjou to Guise as
a brother-in-law, was not personal; it had a political foundation. The
two dukes became, indeed, brothers-in-law; not by Guise marrying
the sister of D’Anjou, but by D’Anjou marrying the sister of Guise,
and by sharing with her the throne which he, subsequently, occupied
rather than enjoyed, as Henri III.
When summoned to the throne by the unedifying death of Charles
IX., Henry of Anjou was king of Poland. He escaped from that
country with difficulty, in order to wear a more brilliant but a more
fatal crown in France. He had no sooner assumed it, when he beheld
the Guises encircling him, and leaving him neither liberty nor will.
The Protestants were driven into rebellion. They found a leader in
Henry of Navarre, and Guise and his friends made war against them,
irrespective of the King’s consent, and cut in pieces, with their
swords, the treaties entered into between the two Henrys, without
the consent of the third Henri—of Guise and Lorraine. The latter so
completely enslaved the weak and unhappy sovereign, as to wring
from him, against his remonstrance and conviction, the famous
articles of Nemours, wherein it was solemnly decreed in the name of
the King, and confirmed by the signature of Guise, that,
thenceforward, it was the will of God that there should be but one
faith in France, and that the opposers thereof would find that
opposition incurred death.
There is a tradition that when Henri III. was told of this decree, he
was seated in deep meditation, his head resting upon his hand; and
that when he leaped to his feet with emotion, at the impiety of the
declaration, it was observed that the part of his moustache which
had been covered by his hand, had suddenly turned gray.
The misery that followed on the publication of these infamous
articles was widely spread, and extended to other hearths besides
those of the Huguenots. Sword, pestilence, and famine, made a
desert of a smiling country; and the universal people, in their
common sorrow, cursed all parties alike—“King and Queen, Pope
and Calvin,” and only asked from Heaven release from all, and
peace for those who suffered by the national divisions. The King,
indeed, was neither ill-intentional nor intolerant; but Guise so
intrigued as to persuade the “Catholic” part of the nation that Henri
was incapable. Faction then began to look upon the powerful subject
as the man best qualified to meet the great emergency. He fairly
cajoled them into rebellion. They were, indeed, willing to be so
cajoled by a leader so liberal of promises, and yet he was known to
be as cruel as he engaged himself to be liberal. He often kept his
own soldiers at a point barely above starvation; and the slightest
insubordination in a regiment entailed the penalty of death. To his
foes he was more terrible still. As he stood in the centre of a
conquered town that had been held by the Huguenots, it was sport to
him to see the latter tossed into the flames. On one occasion he
ordered a Huguenot officer to be torn asunder by young horses for
no greater crime than mutilating a wooden idol in a church. The
officer had placed the mutilated figure on a bastion of the city, with a
pike across its breast, as a satire on the guardianship which such a
protector was popularly believed to afford.
He could, however, be humane when the humor and good reason for
it came together. Thus he parted with a pet lioness, which he kept at
his quarters, on the very sufficient ground that the royal beast had,
on a certain morning, slain and swallowed one of his favorite
footmen! A commonplace lacquey he might have spared without
complaining; but he could not, without some irritation, hear of a valet
being devoured who, though a valet, had a profound belief that his
master was a hero.
The “Bartholomew” had not destroyed all the foes of the name of
Guise. What was not accomplished on that day was sought to be
achieved by the “League.” The object of this society was to raise the
Duke to the throne of Henri, either before or after the death of the
latter. The King was childless, and the presumptive heir to the
throne, Henri of Navarre, was a Protestant. The Lorrainers had
double reason, then, for looking to themselves. The reigning
sovereign was the last of three brothers who had inherited the
crown, and there was then a superstitious idea that when three
brothers had reigned in France, a change of dynasty was inevitable.
Guise fired his followers with the assurance that the invasion of
England, and the establishment of Popery there, should be an
enterprise which they should be called upon to accomplish. The King
was in great alarm at the “League,” but he wisely constituted himself
a member. The confederates kept him in the dark as to the chief of
their objects. The suspicious monarch, on the other hand,
encouraged his minions to annoy his good cousin of Lorraine. One of
these unworthy favorites, St. Megrim, did more: he slandered the
wife of Guise, who took, thereon, a singular course of trial and
revenge. He aroused his Duchess from her solitary couch, in the
middle of the night, hissed in her alarmed ear the damning rumor
that was abroad, and bade her take at once from his hands the
dagger or the poison-cup, which he offered her:—adding that she
had better die, having so greatly sinned. The offended and innocent
wife cared not for life, since she was suspected, and drank off the
contents of the cup, after protestation of her innocence. The draught
was of harmless preparation, for the Duke was well assured of the
spotless character of a consort whom he himself daily dishonored by
his infidelities. He kissed her hand and took his leave; but he sent a
score of his trusty-men into the courtyard of the Louvre, who fell on
St. Megrim, and butchered him almost on the threshold of the King’s
apartments.
The monarch made no complaint at the outrage; but he raised a
tomb over the mangled remains of his favorite minion, above which a
triad of Cupids represented the royal grief, by holding their stony
knuckles to their tearless eyes, affecting the passion which they
could not feel.
In the meantime, while the people were being pushed to rebellion at
home, the ducal family were intriguing in nearly every court in
Europe. Between the intrigues of Guise and the recklessness of the
King, the public welfare suffered shipwreck. So nearly complete was
the ruin, that it was popularly said, “The Minions crave all: the King
gives all; the Queen-mother manages all; Guise opposes all; the Red
Ass (the Cardinal) embroils all, and would that the Devil had all!”
But the opposition of Guise was made to some purpose. By
exercising it he exacted from the King a surrender of several strong
cities. They were immediately garrisoned by Guisards, though held
nominally by the sovereign. From the latter the Duke wrung nearly all
that it was in the power of the monarch to yield; but when Guise, who
had a design against the life of the Protestant Henri of Navarre,
asked for a royal decree prohibiting the granting of “quarter” to a
Huguenot in the field, the King indignantly banished him from the
capital. Guise feigned to obey; but his celebrated sister, the Duchess
of Montpensier, refused to share in even a temporary exile. This bold
woman went about in public, with a pair of scissors at her girdle,
which, as she intimated, would serve for the tonsure of brother Henri
of Valois, when weariness should drive him from a palace into a
monastery.
The King, somewhat alarmed, called around him his old Swiss body
guard, and as the majority of these men professed the reformed
faith, Guise made use of the circumstance to obtain greater ends
than any he had yet obtained. The people were persuaded that their
religion was in peril; and when the Duke, breaking his ban, entered
Paris and, gallantly attired, walked by the side of the sedan of
Catherine of Medicis, on their way to the Louvre, to remonstrate with
the unorthodox king, the church-bells gave their joyous greeting, and
the excited populace hung upon the steps of the Duke, showering
upon him blessings and blasphemous appellations. “Hosanna to our
new son of David!” shouted those who affected to be the most pious;
and aged women, kissing his garment as he passed, rose from their
knees, exclaiming, “Lord, now lettest thou thy servant depart in
peace, for mine eyes have seen thy salvation!”
The less blasphemous or the more sincere sufficiently expressed
their satisfaction by hailing him, as he went on his way, smiling, “King
of Paris!”
The sound of this title reached the ears of Henri. Coupling it with the
unauthorized return of Guise to court, he passed into alternate fits of
ungovernable wrath and profound melancholy. He was under the
influence of the latter when there fell on his ear, words which make
him start from his seat—“Percutiam pastorem, et dispergentur oves;”
and when the Monarch looked round for the speaker, he beheld the
Abbé d’Elbene, who had thus calmly quoted Scripture, in order to
recommend murder. The King, though startled, was not displeased.
On the contrary, he smiled; and the smile was yet around his lips,
and in his eyes, when Guise entered the presence, and mistook the
expression of the royal face for one of welcome. The Duke,
emboldened by what he saw, hurried through a long list of
grievances, especially dwelling on the lenity, not to say favor, with
which Henri treated the heretics generally. The sovereign made a
few excuses, which Guise heeded not; on the contrary, he hastened
to denounce the body of minions who polluted the palace. “Love me,
love my dog,” said Henri, in a hoarse voice. “Yes,” answered Guise,
peering into the royal and unnaturally sparkling eyes, “provided he
doesn’t bite!” The two men stood revealed before each other; and
from that hour the struggle was deadly. Henri would not give away,
with reference to his Swiss guard; and Guise, passing through Paris,
with his sword unsheathed, awoke the eager spirit of revolt, and
looked complacently on while the barricades were raised to impede
the march of the execrable Calvinistic Archers of the Guard. The
“King of Paris” earned a decisive victory; but before it was achieved,
the King of France hurried, in an agony of cowardly affright, from his
capital. He gazed for a moment on the city, as he departed, venting
curses on its ingratitude; for, said the fugitive Monarch, “I loved you
better than I did my own wife;”—which was indisputably true.
Guise might now have ascended the throne, had he not been too
circumspect. He deemed the royal cause lost, but he was satisfied
for the moment with ruling in the capital, as generalissimo. He
stopped the King’s couriers, and opened his letters. He confiscated
the property of Huguenots, and sold the same for his own benefit,
while he professed to care only for that of the Commonwealth.
Finally, he declared that the disturbed condition of affairs should be
regulated by a States-General, which he commanded rather than
prayed Henri to summon to a meeting at Blois. The King consented;
and the 18th of October, 1588, was appointed for the opening. Guise
entered the old town with his family, and a host of retainers, cased in
armor, and bristling with steel. Henri had his mother Catherine at his
side; but there were also a few faithful and unscrupulous followers
with him in the palace at Blois; and as he looked on any of those
who might happen to salute him in passing, the King smiled darkly,
and Percutiam pastorem fell in murmured satisfaction from his lips.
The saturnine monarch became, all at once, cheerful in his outward
bearing, even when Guise was so ruling the States as to make their
proceedings turn to the detriment of the monarchy. The Guise faction
became anxious for the safety of their leader, whose quarters were
in the palace; but when the King, in token of reconciliation begged
the Duke to participate with him in the celebration of the Holy
Sacrament, there was scarcely a man capable of interpreting the
manner of the times, who did not feel assured that under such a
solemn pledge of security, there lay concealed the very basest
treachery. Guise, over-confident, scorned alike open warning and
dark innuendoes. He was so strong, and his royal antagonist so
weak, that he despised the idea of violence being used against him
—especially as the keys of the palatial castle were in his keeping, as
“Grand-Master” of the Court.
The 23d of December had arrived. The King intimated that he should
proceed early in the morning, soon after daybreak (but subsequently
to holding a council, to which he summoned the Duke and Cardinal),
to the shrine of Our Lady of Clery, some two miles distant; and the
keys of the gates were demanded, in order to let Henri have issue at
his pleasure, but in reality to keep the Guises within, isolated from
their friends without. Larchant, one of the Archers of the Guard, also
waited upon the Duke, to pray him to intercede for himself and
comrades with the King, in order to obtain for them an increase of
pay. “We will do ourselves the honor,” said Larchant, “to prefer our
petition to your Highness, in the morning, in a body.” This was a
contrivance to prevent Guise from being surprised at seeing so many
armed men together in the King’s antechamber, before the council
was sitting. Henri passed a sleepless night. His namesake of Guise,
who had just sent his Duchess homeward, her approaching
confinement being expected, spent the whole of the same night in
the apartments of the Countess de Noirmoutier.
He was seen coming thence, before dawn, gayly dressed, and
proceeding to the Chapel of the Virgin, to perform his morning
devotions. Long before this, the King was a-foot, visiting the select
archers who had accepted the bloody mission of ridding the
perplexed monarch of his importunate adversary. He posted them,
altered the arrangements, reposted them, addressed them again and
again on the lawfulness of their office, and had some trouble to
suppress an enthusiasm which threatened to wake the Queen-
mother, who slept below, and to excite the suspicion of the Guards in
the vicinity. Staircase and hall, closet and arras, no coign of vantage
but had its assassin ready to act, should his fellows have failed.
Precisely at seven o’clock, Guise, attired in a light suit of gray satin,
and followed by Pericart, his secretary, entered the council-chamber,
where he found several members assembled; among others, his
younger brother, the “Bottle-Cardinal” de Guise. An hour passed
without the appearance of any message from the King, who was in
an inner apartment, now half-frightened at the pale faces of his own
confidants, and anon endeavoring to excite his own resolution, by
attempts to encourage theirs. It was a long and weary hour for all
parties. As it slowly passed away, Guise, he knew not wherefore,
grew anxious. He complained of the cold, and heaped billets of wood
upon the fire. He spoke of feeling sick, faint, and unnerved; and from
his silver sweetmeat-case he took a few bonbons, by way of
breakfast. He subsequently asked for some Damascus raisins, and
conserve of roses; but these, when supplied to him did not relieve
him of an unaccountable nervousness, which was suddenly
increased, when the eye next to the scar from which he derived his
appellation of Le Balafré, began to be suffused with tears. He
indignantly wiped away the unwelcome suffusion, and had quite
recovered as Rivol, Secretary of State, entered, and requested him
to attend on the King, who awaited him in his own chamber.
Guise gayly flung his bonbonnière across the council-table, and
laughingly bade the grave counsellors scramble for the scattered
sweets. He started up, overturned his chair in so doing, drew his thin
mantle around him, and with cap and gloves in hand, waved a
farewell to the statesmen present. He passed through two rooms,
and closely followed by various of the archers, reached the
tapestried entrance to the King’s cabinet. No one offered to raise the
arras for him. Guise lifted his own right arm to help himself at the
same time looking half-round at the archers who were near him. At
that moment, a dagger was buried in his breast, up to the very hilt.
The blow was delivered by Montsery, from behind. The Duke let fall
his hand to the pommel of his sword, when one assassin clung to his
legs, a second, also from behind, stabbed him in the neck; while a
third passed his weapon through the Duke’s ribs.
Guise’s first cry was, “Ho, friends!” His second, as Sarine ran him
through the lower part of the back, was, “Mercy, Jesus!” He struggled
faintly across the chamber, bleeding from a dozen wounds, in every
one of which sat death. The murderers hacked at him as he
staggered, and wildly yet feebly fought. All paused for a moment,
when he had reached the extreme end of the room, where he again
attempted to raise his sword; but in the act he rolled over, stone
dead, at the foot of the bed of Henri III.
At that moment the tapestry was raised, and the king, whispering “Is
it done?” approached the body, moodily remarking as he gazed upon
it, “He looks greater than he did when living.” Upon the person of the
duke was found a manuscript memorandum, in these words:—“To
maintain a war in France, I should require 700,000 livres per month.”
This memorandum served in the king’s mind as a justification of the
murder just committed by his orders. The body was then
unceremoniously rolled up in the Turkey carpet on which it had
fallen, was covered with quick lime, and flung into the Loire. Some
maimed rites were previously performed over it by Dourgin the royal
chaplain, who could not mutter the De Profundis without a running
and terrified commentary of “Christ!—the awful sight!” Guise’s
second cardinal-brother and the Archbishop of Lyons were murdered
on the following day; but the lesser victims were forgotten in the fate
which had fallen upon the more illustrious, yet certainly more guilty
personages.
The widow of Guise, soon after the dread event, gave birth to a son,
subsequently the Chevalier Louis de Guise. “The boy,” said the
bereaved lady, “came into the world with his hands clasped, as if
praying for vengeance on the assassins of his father.” Every male
member of the family whom the king could reach was now subjected
to arrest. The young heir of Balafré, Charles, now fourth Duke of
Guise, was now placed in close restriction in the Castle of Tours,
where, sleeping or waking, four living eyes unceasingly watched him
—voire même allant â la garderobe—but which eyes he managed to
elude nevertheless.
In the meantime Rome excommunicated the murderer of her
champion. Paris put on mourning; officials were placed in the street
to strip and scourge even ladies who ventured to appear without
some sign of sorrow. Wax effigies of the king were brought into the
churches, and frantically stabbed by the priests at the altar. The
priests then solemnly paraded the streets, chanting as they went,
“May God extinguish the Valois!”
The whole city broke into insurrection, and the brother of Guise, the
Duke de Mayenne, placed himself at the head of the “league,” whose
object was the deposing of the king, and the transferring of the
crown to a child of Lorraine. In the contest which ensued, Valois and
Navarre united against the Guisards, and carried victory with them
wherever they raised their banners. The exultation of Henri III. was
only mitigated by the repeated Papal summonses received by him to
repair to Rome, and there answer for his crime.
Henri of Navarre induced him to rather think of gaining Paris than of
mollifying the Pope; and he was so occupied when the double
vengeance of the church and the house of Guise overtook him in the
very moment of victory.
The Duchess de Montpensier, sister of the slaughtered duke, had
made no secret of her intentions to have public revenge for the deed
privately committed, whereby she had lost a brother. There was
precaution enough taken that she should not approach the royal
army or the king’s quarters; but a woman and a priest rendered all
precautions futile. The somewhat gay duchess was on unusually
intimate terms with a young monk, named Jacques Clement. This
good Brother was a fanatic zealot for his church, and a rather too
ardent admirer of the duchess, who turned both sentiments to her
own especial purpose. She whispered in his ears a promise, to
secure the fulfilment of which, he received with furious haste, the
knife which was placed in his hands by the handsomest woman in
France. It is said that knife is still preserved, a precious treasure, at
Rome.
However this may be, on the 1st of August, 1589, the young Brother,
with a weapon hid in the folds of his monkish gaberdine, and with a
letter in his hand, sought and obtained access to the king. He went
straightforward to his butcher’s work, and had scarcely passed
beneath the roof of the royal tent before he had buried the steel deep
in the monarch’s bosom. He turned to fly with hot haste to the lady
from whom he had received his commission; but a dozen swords
and pikes thrust life out of him ere he had made three steps in the
direction of his promised recompence.
She who had engaged herself to pay for the crime cared for neither
victim. She screamed indeed, but it was with a hysteric joy that
threatened to slay her, and which was only allayed by the thought
that the last King of the Valois race did not know that he had died by
a dagger directed by a sister of Guise.
In testimony of her exultation she distributed green scarfs, the color
of Lorraine, to the people of Paris. She brought up from the
provinces the mother of Clement, to whom was accorded the
distinction of a triumphal entry. Priests and people worshipped the
mother of the assassin as she passed wonderingly on her way; and
they blasphemously saluted her with the chanted words, “Blessed be
the womb that bare him, and the paps that gave him suck.” She was
led to the seat of honor at the table of Guise, and Rome sheltered
the infamy of the assassin, and revealed its own, by pronouncing his
work to be a god-like act. By authority of the Vatican, medals were
struck in memory and honor of the dead; but the Huguenots who
read thereon the murderer’s profession and name—Frère Jacques
Clement—ingeniously discovered therein the anagrammatic
interpretation “C’est l’enfer qui m’a crée”—“It is hell that created me.”
The last Valois, with his last breath, had named the Protestant Henri
of Navarre as his legal successor to the throne; but between Henri
and his inheritance there stood Rome and the Guise faction. Then
ensued the successive wars of the League, during which the heavy
Mayenne suffered successive defeats at the hands of Henri of the
snowy plume. While the contest was raging, the people trusted to the
pulpits for their intelligence from the scene of action. From those
pulpits was daily uttered more mendacity in one hour than finds
expression in all the horse-fairs of the United Kingdom in a year.
When famine decimated those who lived within the walls, the people
were reduced to live upon a paste made from human bones, and
which they called “Madame de Montpensier’s cake.”
Henri of Navarre, their deliverer, did not arrive before the gates of
Paris without trouble. In 1521, Charles of Guise, the young Duke,
had escaped most gallantly, in open day, from the Castle of Tours, by
sliding from the ramparts, down a rope, which simply blistered his
hands and made a rent in his hose. He was speedily accoutred and
in the field, with Spain in his rear to help him. Now, he was making a
dash at Henri’s person; and, anon, leaping from his camp-bed to
escape him. At other times he was idle, while his uncle Mayenne
pursued the cherished object of their house—that crown which was
receding from them more swiftly than ever. For the alert Bourbon, the
slow and hard-drinking Mayenne was no match. The latter thought
once to catch the former in his lady’s bower, but the wakeful lover
was gayly galloping back to his quarters before the trumpets of
Mayenne had sounded to “boot and saddle.” “Mayenne,” said the
Pope, “sits longer at table than Henri lies in bed.”
The gates of Paris were open to Henri on the 21st of March, 1591.
Old Cardinal Pellevi died of disgust and indignation, on hearing of
the fact. The Duchess of Montpensier, after tearing her hair, and
threatening to swoon, prudently concluded, with Henry IV., not only
her own peace, but that of her family. The chief members of the
house of Guise were admitted into places of great trust, to the injury
of more deserving individuals. The young Duke de Guise affected a
superabundant loyalty. In return, the King not only gave him the
government of several chief towns, but out of compliment to him
forbade the exercise of Protestant worship within the limits of the
Duke’s government! Such conduct was natural to a King, who to
secure his throne had abandoned his faith; who lightly said that he
had no cannon so powerful as the canon of the mass, and who was
destitute of most virtues save courage and good-nature. The latter
was abused by those on whom it was lavished; and the various
assaults upon his life were supposed to be directed by those very
Guises, on whom he had showered places, pensions, and pardons,
which they were constantly needing and continually deriding.
The young Duke of Guise enjoyed, among other appointments, that
of Governor of Marseilles. He was light-hearted, selfish, vain, and
cruel. He hanged his own old partisans in the city, as enemies to the
king; and he made his name for ever infamous by the seduction of
the beautiful and noble orphan-girl, Marcelle de Castellane, whom he
afterward basely abandoned, and left to die of hunger. He sent her a
few broad pieces by the hands of a lacquey; but the tardy charity
was spurned, and the poor victim died. He had little time to think of

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Stats: Data and Models, Third Canadian

Edition Richard D. De Veaux

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DATA AND MODELS

Range = Max - Min

P(A and B) = P(A) * P(B  A)

E(X) = m = g x P(x ) Var(X) = s2 = g (x - m)2 P(x )

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Parameter Estimator SD (Estimator) SE (Estimator)

p1q1 p2q2 pn 1qn 1 pn 2qn 2

s21 s22 s21 s22

(in simple s2e

(in simple s2e

(n1 - 1)s21 + (n2 - 1)s22

One-way ANOVA: SST = a a (yj - y)2; MST = SST >(k - 1)

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STATS DATA AND MODELS

RICHARD D. DE VEAUX PAUL F. VELLEMAN DAVID E. BOCK

AUGUSTIN M. VUKOV AUGUSTINE C.M. WONG

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1. Statistics—Textbooks. 2. Mathematical statistics—Textbooks.

QA276.12.D42 2017 519.5 C2017-902493-0

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To my sons, David and Zev, from whom I’ve learned so much,

To my adopted country, Canada, its amazing citizens,

To Camilla and Octavia for their

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Richard D. De Veaux is an internationally known educator and consultant. He has

Paul F. Velleman has an international reputation for innovative Statistics education. He

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Augustine C.M. Wong is a professor of Statistics at York University. He completed

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Part I Exploring and Understanding Data

2 Displaying and Describing Categorical Data 17

3 Displaying and Summarizing Quantitative Data 50

Symmetric Distributions: The Mean ■ 3.7 The Spread of Symmetric

4 Understanding and Comparing Distributions 98

5 The Standard Deviation as a Ruler and the Normal Model 131

Part I Review: Exploring and Understanding Data 165

Part II Exploring Relationships Between Variables

7 Linear Regression 210

■ 7.5 Examining the Residuals ■ 7.6 R2—The Variation Accounted

For by the Model ■ 7.7 Regression Assumptions and Conditions

8 Regression Wisdom 246

Part II Review Exploring Relationships Between Variables 280

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Part III Gathering Data

10 Experiments and Observational Studies 319

Part III Review: Gathering Data 348

Part IV Randomness and Probability

P(A and B) = P(A) * P(B A)