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IF Romeo - Import Substitution
IF Romeo - Import Substitution
IF Romeo - Import Substitution
Abstract:
This research project critically reviews the concept of import substitution through the Make in
India initiative. Since its launch in 2014, the Make in India campaign aimed to boost the
manufacturing sector, create employment opportunities, and stimulate economic growth.
However, the COVID-19 pandemic presented challenges, particularly in the form of supply
shortages. As a response, the Indian government introduced Production Linked Incentive (PLI)
schemes to enhance self-sufficiency and foster manufacturing. This study examines the objectives,
progress, and effectiveness of the Make in India campaign, highlighting its impact on foreign direct
investment (FDI) inflows and the need for further attention.
2. Introduction:
In 2014, the Indian government under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi introduced
the Make in India initiative, aimed at boosting manufacturing and attracting domestic and
international investments into the country. The program seeks to transform India into a global
manufacturing hub, create employment opportunities, and contribute to the growth and
development of the economy. This research project critically reviews the concept of import
substitution through the Make in India initiative, assessing its impact on manufacturing output and
foreign direct investment inflows. The objective of the study is to examine the effectiveness of the
Make in India campaign in achieving its goals and further understand its implications in the context
of import substitution.
2.1 Brief Account of the Manufacturing Sector:
India's manufacturing sector boasts a rich and evolving history. While its pre-colonial past
thrived on vibrant handicraft production and export, the landscape shifted significantly with
the advent of British rule. The two World Wars, with their immense demand, provided a
temporary impetus to Indian industries. However, true independence in 1947 marked a
turning point. The newly formed government, guided by the Five-Year Plans, prioritized the
development of essential and heavy industries. The Industrial Policy Resolution of 1956
emphasized sectors like iron and steel, heavy engineering, lignite projects, and fertilizers.
However, this period, also known as the "License Raj," saw increased bureaucratic control,
hindering long-term growth. Additionally, the performance of Public Sector Undertakings
(PSUs) deteriorated, leading to a drain on foreign exchange reserves.
(a) Manufacturing Gross Value Added:The table displays the percentage of Gross
Domestic Product (GDP) over the years from 2000 to 2022. There is a noticeable
upward trend in the percentage of GDP from 2000 to 2008, reaching its peak at
41.95% in 2007. Subsequently, there is a slight decline in the following years until
2013, followed by a fluctuating pattern. Notably, the percentage of GDP experienced
a dip in 2020 but recovered and slightly increased in 2021 and 2022, indicating
dynamic economic trends over the period analysed.
(b) Exports of Manufactured Goods
2.2 FDI
In emerging economies like India, foreign direct investment (FDI) fuels skill development and
economic growth. FDI provides essential capital without increasing national debt
Before the “Make in India” Campaign (Pre-2015): In the early 2000s, India was already
attracting FDI, but the growth rate was moderate. FDI inflows stood at around ₹10,000
crore in 2000-01 and gradually increased over the years. However, the pace of growth was
not substantial, and India faced challenges in attracting significant foreign investments.
I. FDI Inflows Surge: India overtook China and the United States as the top
destination for FDI in 2015. In the first half of 2015, India attracted $31 billion in
FDI, surpassing China and the US.
II. Consistent Growth: FDI inflows consistently increased since then. In FY 2021-22,
India reported the highest-ever annual FDI inflow of $83.57 billion, overtaking the
previous year’s FDI by $1.60 billion despite the COVID-19 pandemic.
III. Key Sectors: The “Make in India” initiative targeted sectors like manufacturing,
automobile, technology, and services. It successfully attracted foreign
investments, signalling international confidence in India’s capabilities.
IV. Job Creation: The campaign contributed to job creation across various sectors,
addressing unemployment issues.
V. Reducing Import Dependency: By promoting domestic production, the campaign
aimed to reduce India’s reliance on imports.
VI. Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic: The pandemic disrupted global economies,
including FDI trends. Despite challenges, India continued to attract FDI,
demonstrating resilience and adaptability. The government’s proactive measures,
ease of doing business, and sector-specific reforms played a crucial role in
maintaining investor confidence.
2.3 Balance of Payments (BoP)
The adverse global economic situation placed India’s BoP under pressure in 2022. While the
impact of a sharp rise in oil prices was discernible in the widening of the CAD, policy tightening
by the US Fed and the strengthening of the US dollar led to FPI outflows. As a result, as the
net financial inflows fell short of the CAD, there was a depletion of foreign exchange reserves
on a BoP basis to the tune of US$ 25.8 billion in H1 FY23 in contrast to an accretion of US$
63.1 billion in H1 FY22. But huge valuation losses (US$ 48.9 billion) contributed to the net
depletion of US$ 74.6 billion of reserves in nominal terms during the period.
In 2022, global trade reached a record high of approximately US$ 32 trillion. However,
during the second half of 2022, there was a slowdown in trade growth. Specifically:
On the other h and, trade in services is projected to expand by US$ 500 billion in 2023.
The World Trade Organization (WTO) also predicts that global merchandise trade volumes
will grow by 0.8% in 2023, down from the earlier forecast of 1.7%. Looking ahead to 2024,
trade growth is expected to pick up slightly, reaching 3.3%.
In 2019, India’s position in the ‘Trading across Borders’ indicator of the World Bank’s Ease
of Doing Business Report improved significantly. The country jumped from 143rd in 2016
to 68th out of 190 countries in 2019. This progress reflects India’s efforts to streamline
trade processes and enhance efficiency.
India has outperformed other countries in Asia by implementing several key initiatives:
I. Direct Port Delivery (DPD): This scheme facilitates faster import clearance by allowing
cargo to be delivered directly from the port to the consignee’s premises, reducing
dwell time and costs.
II. Direct Port Entry (DPE): For exports, DPE enables direct movement of cargo from the
exporter’s premises to the port, streamlining export processes.
III. e-Sanchit: An electronic platform that simplifies document submission for trade-
related clearances, making the process more efficient and transparent.
IV. Turant Customs: India’s next-generation software for customs management, aimed at
enhancing transparency, reducing paperwork, and promoting digital interactions.
These initiatives have contributed to India’s improved rankings and demonstrate the country’s
commitment to digital and sustainable trade facilitation. India’s efforts have positioned it as a
leader in the South Asia region, surpassing many developed countries in overall trade
facilitation scores.
The logistics industry in India has experienced rapid growth and is currently valued at
approximately US$ 160 billion. Projections indicate that it will soon reach US$ 215
billion. This sector plays a crucial role in facilitating trade and economic development.
According to the World Bank’s Logistics Performance Index (LPI), India’s global ranking
has improved significantly. In 2022, India was ranked 38th, a notable jump from
the 54th position in 2014. This improvement reflects the country’s efforts to enhance
logistics efficiency, streamline processes, and boost connectivity.
Several key interventions have contributed to this positive trend:
4. Literature Review:
In examining the import substitution efforts through Make in India, existing literature highlights the
challenges and opportunities associated with this initiative. The imperative for the government to
foster a conducive business environment and establish world-class infrastructure is underscored
(Gupta, Kapoor, and Asudani, 2015). Bureaucratic hurdles have been identified as a deterrent to
India's attractiveness for investments (Gupta, Kapoor, and Asudani, 2015). Collaborative efforts
between the central and state governments are urged to ensure competitiveness (Saha, 2014), and
the simplification of licensing processes at the state level is emphasized (Paul, 2015).
Furthermore, the Make in India initiative has positively impacted India's standing in the Ease of
Doing Business Index (World Bank, 2020), with the country ascending to the 63rd position out of
190 nations. However, challenges persist in comparison to global counterparts (World Bank, 2020).
Continuous efforts are needed to streamline regulations and reduce bureaucratic obstacles for both
domestic and foreign investors.
Crucially, substantial investments in world-class infrastructure are deemed essential for attracting
investments and bolstering manufacturing in India (World Bank, 2019). Collaborative endeavours
between the central and state governments are pivotal, with transportation networks, logistics,
and connectivity playing crucial roles in enhancing India's appeal as a manufacturing destination
(World Bank, 2019). Initiatives like Bharatmala and Sagarmala mark positive strides in infrastructure
development.
Aligning state-level policies with the central government's vision is emphasized, with a particular
focus on streamlining licensing processes for encouraging investments and enhancing the ease of
doing business (World Bank, 2020).
From an economic theory perspective, Dr. TV Ramana's classical economic theory underscores the
significance of supply-side incentives (Ramana, date). Creating an environment that stimulates
producers to increase production is posited to facilitate a free flow of capital and attract higher
investments. Additionally, Dr. (Smt.) Rajeshwari Shettar's research accentuates the impact of Make
in India across diverse sectors, including automobiles, aviation, biotechnology, chemicals, and
electronics (Shettar, date). These changes are anticipated to contribute significantly to employment
generation and economic growth.
5. Research Methodology:
The proposed research will primarily rely on secondary data gathered from various sources such
as research articles, publications from the Ministry of Commerce (Government of India), reports
from government and private agencies, surveys, newspaper articles, books, and authenticated
websites. The data on FDI inflows will be obtained from the DPIIT of the Ministry of Commerce
and Industry of India, while information on the ease of conducting business will be sourced from
a report by the World Bank Group. A review of literature will be conducted by collecting relevant
research papers from different journals. The collected data will be classified and tabulated based
on research objectives, including year-wise, country-wise, sector-wise, state-wise, and month-
wise analysis. The research will adopt a descriptive research type and rely on secondary data
sources to identify the reasons behind investors' concerns and evaluate the impact of
government measures.
This initiative aligns with the broader goal of import substitution, a strategy that gained renewed
significance in the wake of global disruptions. Import substitution through Make in India envisions
not only economic resilience but also the creation of a robust and competitive domestic
manufacturing landscape. As the campaign evolves, it becomes imperative to delve into the
intricacies of its implementation, its impact on the manufacturing sector, and its role in attracting
Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). This study aims to provide a comprehensive and critical analysis of
the Make in India initiative, shedding light on its achievements, shortcomings, and its significance
in the larger context of import substitution. Through meticulous examination and data-driven
insights, this research endeavours to contribute valuable perspectives to the ongoing discourse
surrounding India's manufacturing and economic-development.
(a) Components
The budget allocated ₹21,422 crore to the MSME sector, reflecting a 26.71% increase
compared to the previous year.
The exemption on customs duty for steel scrap imports, a key raw material for many
MSMEs, was extended for a year.
The Credit Guarantee Trust for Micro and Small Enterprises (CGTMSE) scheme received
an infusion of funds for revitalization.
(b) Solar Chakra Mission
Launched in 2018, the Solar Charkha Mission is dedicated to generating employment
in rural areas, with a particular emphasis on empowering women and youth. The
initiative focuses on harnessing solar power for spinning yarn through solar-powered
charkhas (spinning wheels). Notable achievements include the establishment of 50
clusters, aiming to create 1 lakh jobs. The government allocated ₹550 crore in
investment between 2018 and 2020 to support this sustainable and employment-
centric mission.
(d) Others
I. Revised Definition: The most significant amendment in 2020 redefined MSMEs based
on investment in plant & machinery/equipment and annual turnover:
• Micro: Investment ≤ ₹1 Cr, Turnover ≤ ₹5 Cr
• Small: Investment ≤ ₹10 Cr, Turnover ≤ ₹50 Cr
• Medium: Investment ≤ ₹20 Cr, Turnover ≤ ₹200 Cr
II. Simplified Registration: Introduced Udyam Registration through a Udyog Aadhaar
Memorandum (UAM) for easier online registration and self-certification.
III. Faster Dispute Resolution: Established Commercial Courts for faster settlement of
commercial disputes, including those involving MSMEs.
IV. Easier Access to Credit: Initiatives like Pradhan Mantri Mudra Yojana and Revised
Credit Guarantee Scheme aim to facilitate easier loan access for MSMEs.
V. Emphasis on Ease of Doing Business: Measures like reducing compliance burden and
simplifying regulations.
VI. Delayed Payment Protection: Provisions for timely payments to MSMEs from buyers,
with specified interest rates for delayed payments.
Furthermore, the Sagar Mala project initiated by the Government of India aims to modernize
the country's ports and inland waterways to catalyse port-led development and leverage
coastal resources for national progress. With an allocated project outlay of $10 billion, the
Sagar Mala project seeks to enhance connectivity and promote economic activities along
India's coastlines.
In addition, the Smart Cities Mission, with a project outlay of $7.69 billion, is underway, with
Special Purpose Vehicles established for 19 cities. This mission aims to transform select urban
centres into technologically advanced, sustainable, and liveable cities.
(b) Digital-India
These initiatives include the transition to e-governance for online tax systems, the
introduction of web-based Reserve Unique Name (RUN) for name reservation,
streamlined processes such as the SPICe form exemption of MCA fees for company
incorporation, and the E-KYC drive for directors facilitating the allotment of Director
Identification Number (DIN). Additionally, the BharatNet project, which as of 2018 has
extended high-speed broadband access to over 118,000 Gram Panchayats or Village
Councils, is pivotal. BharatNet is poised to revolutionize the digital delivery of essential
services, driving forward the vision of Digital India and bolstering the broader goals of
the Make in India campaign.
(c) Startup-India
Startup India, a key component of the Make in India Scheme, represents a
comprehensive ecosystem designed to foster innovation, entrepreneurship, and job
creation in India. Launched in 2016, Startup India aims to cultivate a conducive
environment for startups to thrive by simplifying regulations, providing access to
funding, and nurturing innovation hubs across the country. Incentives provided to
startups under Startup India initiative:
➢ Access to funding through government-backed schemes like Fund of Funds
for Startups (FFS).
➢ Incubation and mentorship support through Startup India Hub and Atal
Innovation Mission.
➢ Innovation and research grants provided by various government departments
and agencies.
➢ Relaxation in public procurement norms for startups.
➢ Networking opportunities and exposure through participation in national and
international events.
Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) played a crucial role in propelling China's manufacturing
sector and its subsequent rise as a global manufacturing powerhouse. Here's how, with some
supporting data:
i. Capital injection: FDI inflows into China's manufacturing sector surged from $4 billion
in 1979 to a peak of $181 billion in 2010, providing the crucial capital needed to fuel
rapid expansion.
ii. Technological advancements: FDI also brought advanced technologies and expertise,
contributing to a 45% increase in labour productivity in the manufacturing sector
between 1990 and 2008.
I. Manufacturing wage
China's national minimum wages have displayed steady growth, with the 2022 NMW at
$286.50. The consistent upward trend signifies the country's commitment to improving labour
conditions and ensuring reasonable compensation for workers. China's approach reflects a
balance between economic development and addressing social concerns, contributing to
sustained economic growth and stability.
Comparing the two nations, China's minimum wages significantly surpass India's, reflecting
the disparities in economic development and labour market dynamics. China's proactive
approach in maintaining higher NMWs aligns with its economic growth strategy, emphasizing
the well-being of its workforce. India, while making progress, faces the challenge of ensuring
that minimum wages keep pace with the rising cost of living, contributing to the ongoing
dialogue on fair labour practices and economic equality.
India's labour force has likely seen an increase since September 2019, and as of the latest
available information, it is estimated to be around 530 million. In comparison, China's labour
force, which stood at 783 million in 2019, has likely remained one of the largest globally.
India's position in the World Economic Forum's human capital report may have evolved, but
historical challenges in factors like "know-how" and specialized skills persist. India's rank, as
of the last update, was 103rd, indicating room for improvement. China, with a rank of 34th,
continues to outpace India in various human capital indicators.
The quality and complexity of India's top export products may have experienced
improvements, but challenges in specialized skills may still impact the overall sophistication
of the export basket.
India's labour participation rate, particularly among the 25-54 age group, may have seen
marginal changes, and efforts to address the employment gender gap might be ongoing. As
of 2017, India had a labour participation rate of 67% for this age group, whereas China
reported a higher rate of 88%, showcasing a notable difference in workforce engagement.
10.1 Mauritius:
Over the last ten years, Mauritius has consistently been a significant investor in India. In the
financial year 2021-22, Mauritius contributed $6.13 billion in Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)
equity inflows to India. Cumulatively, from April 2000 to March 2023, Mauritius has invested
a substantial $163.88 billion in India, accounting for approximately 26% of the total FDI
inflows.
10.2 Singapore:
Singapore has been a consistent player in India’s investment landscape. In FY 2021-22,
Singapore’s inward FDI reached $17.20 billion, making it the top investor in India.
Cumulatively, Singapore’s FDI equity inflow into India stands at $148.17 billion, representing
around 23% of the total FDI inflows.
10.3 USA:
The United States has maintained its position as a significant investor in India. In the same
financial year, the USA invested $6.04 billion in India. Cumulatively, the USA’s FDI equity inflow
amounts to $60.20 billion, contributing approximately 9% of the total FDI inflows.
10.4 Netherlands:
The Netherlands has also been actively investing in India. In FY 2021-22, the Netherlands
provided $2.49 billion in FDI equity inflows. Cumulatively, the Netherlands’ FDI inflow into
India stands at $43.76 billion, constituting around 7% of the total FDI inflows.
10.5 Japan:
Japan’s investment in India has been consistent over the past decade. In the most recent
financial year, Japan invested $1.79 billion in FDI equity inflows. Cumulatively, Japan’s FDI
equity inflow amounts to $38.74 billion, representing approximately 6% of the total FDI
inflows.
With strengthened political alliances and a more robust economic negotiation framework,
numerous nations are increasingly viewing India as a pivotal strategic partner. Consequently,
there is a growing willingness among these countries to make substantial investments in India.
III. Globalization: Integration of the Indian economy with the global economy through
trade and investment liberalization.
However, there are also notable differences between the two strategies. South Korea pursued
a more directed and interventionist approach, with strong government guidance and support
for targeted industries. In contrast, India's approach post-1991 was more market-oriented,
with a greater emphasis on liberalization and private sector-led growth. Additionally, South
Korea had a more homogeneous industrial base and stronger institutions compared to India,
which faced challenges such as bureaucratic inefficiencies, infrastructure constraints, and
regulatory complexities.
I. Background:
• Prior to "Make in India," both Xiaomi and Samsung heavily relied on imports, primarily
from China, for finished phones and components.
• This dependence on imports made them susceptible to:
➢ Fluctuations in global prices: Affecting their cost competitiveness.
➢ Supply chain disruptions: Causing potential delays and inventory challenges.
IV. Outcomes:
➢ Increased domestic production of mobile phones in India, reducing reliance on
imports.
➢ Creation of jobs in the manufacturing sector.
➢ Improved cost competitiveness for both companies, allowing them to offer
competitive prices to Indian consumers.
➢ Increased exports of mobile phones from India, contributing to foreign exchange
earnings.
V. Conclusion:
The case of Xiaomi demonstrates how the "Make in India" initiative has successfully
encouraged global companies to increase local production and decrease dependence on
imports. This shift has contributed to job creation, improved cost competitiveness, and
boosted the Indian economy. However, continuous efforts are needed to address challenges
like skill gaps and infrastructure development to ensure the long-term success of "Make in
India" in the mobile phone sector, and beyond.
(c) Case Study 2: Automobiles - "Make in India" Impact on Maruti Suzuki and Hyundai
I. Background:
➢ Dominance of a few manufacturers: Primarily Indian companies like Maruti Suzuki
with significant local production and some foreign players like Hyundai with
import-driven strategies.
➢ Limited domestic value addition: A high dependence on imported components,
making the industry vulnerable to global price fluctuations and supply chain
disruptions.
VI. Outcomes:
➢ Enhanced cost competitiveness, allowing them to compete more effectively in the
Indian market.
➢ Increased their market share in India.
➢ Contributed to the growth of the domestic automotive ecosystem.
VII. Conclusion:
The case of Maruti Suzuki and Hyundai highlights contrasting approaches to "Make in India"
within the automobile sector. While Maruti Suzuki capitalized on their existing strengths,
Hyundai adapted their strategy to become more locally integrated. Both companies, however,
benefited from the initiative, contributing to:
➢ Increased domestic production and value addition
➢ Job creation and skill development
➢ Enhanced cost competitiveness and export potential
Infrastructure Deficits: India's logistics costs are estimated to be around 13% of GDP,
compared to an average of 7-8% in developed economies, highlighting inefficiencies
due to infrastructure gaps.
Land Acquisition Issues: In 2019, a study by the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII)
found that 72% of industrial projects faced delays due to land acquisition hurdles.
(b) Skill Gap and Labour Market Issues:
Inadequate Workforce Skills: A 2020 World Bank report estimated that only 24% of
India's workforce possesses the skills needed for the jobs of tomorrow.
Restrictive Labour Laws: India's rigid labour laws, while offering worker protections,
can discourage companies from expanding, as evident by the slow growth of formal
employment in the manufacturing sector.
Intense Competition from China and others: China's manufacturing output is nearly 10
times larger than India's, and Vietnam's manufacturing sector has grown by an average
of 13% annually since 2010, highlighting the intense competition India faces.
Unfavourable Trade Agreements: Some critics argue that India's trade agreements
with certain countries haven't been optimal, leading to a trade deficit with those
nations and making imports more attractive than domestic production.
Too Many Sectors: With 25 sectors being targeted under "Make in India," critics argue
that the initiative spread itself too thin, diluting resources and attention.
Lack of Innovation Emphasis: While innovation was mentioned as a goal, the focus on
attracting foreign investment and basic manufacturing may not have been enough to
foster the development of high-value-added industries based on R&D.
Global Economic Slowdowns: The global economic slowdown of 2019 and the COVID-
19 pandemic in 2020 significantly impacted India's economic growth and export
potential, further hindering the "Make in India" initiative's progress.
The targets set by "Make in India" were extremely ambitious. Aiming to increase
manufacturing's share of GDP to 25% and creating 100 million jobs within a short
timeframe was perhaps unrealistic. This created a gap between expectations and
reality, and may have led to rushed implementation without adequate preparation.
12. Findings
The initiation of the *Make in India* campaign in 2014 marked a significant stride toward
transforming India into a global manufacturing hub. The campaign, however, faced the dual
challenge of stimulating domestic production while reducing dependence on imports. Insights from
existing research indicate that while the campaign succeeded in improving India's business
environment and attracting investment, certain hurdles persist, limiting its potential impact on
import substitution. Regulatory complexities and infrastructural gaps are key areas where the
campaign could further align with the principles of import substitution.
Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflow has played a crucial role in the success of the Make in India
campaign. It has brought in capital, technology, managerial expertise, and access to global markets.
The campaign's emphasis on attracting FDI has resulted in a significant increase in FDI inflows,
particularly in sectors such as manufacturing and services. However, it is important to note that the
effectiveness of FDI in promoting import substitution varies across sectors. While FDI has
contributed to the growth and modernization of certain industries, challenges remain in achieving
complete import substitution in high-value and technologically advanced sectors.
In summary, the Make in India campaign has made substantial progress in promoting import
substitution and boosting domestic manufacturing. It has created opportunities for businesses to
expand their production capabilities and tap into the growing domestic market. However, challenges
such as bureaucratic hurdles and inadequate infrastructure need to be addressed to fully harness
the potential of the campaign. The role of FDI inflows has been significant but sector-specific
strategies may be required to achieve import substitution across all industries.
17 Conclusion
While the "Make in India" initiative has fostered some positive developments, its overall impact on
import substitution and export promotion remains limited. This limited success can be attributed to
several factors, including:
➢ A lack of focus on developing core competencies and fostering innovation in key
sectors,
➢ persistent challenges in the ease of doing business, and
➢ Infrastructure deficiencies.
To revitalize the program and achieve its ambitious goals, further reforms are needed. These
include prioritizing investments in research and development, streamlining bureaucratic
procedures, and enhancing physical and digital infrastructure. Additionally, a greater
emphasis on skill development and fostering global competitiveness will be crucial. As the
global economy continues to evolve, the "Make in India" initiative must adapt and innovate
to remain relevant and contribute meaningfully to India's economic growth and self-reliance.