Technological Economics Shoubo Xu

Visit to download the full and correct content document:

https://textbookfull.com/product/technological-economics-shoubo-xu/
More products digital (pdf, epub, mobi) instant
download maybe you interests ...

Understanding Chinese Culture Guobin Xu

https://textbookfull.com/product/understanding-chinese-culture-
guobin-xu/

Introduction to Chinese Culture Guobin Xu

https://textbookfull.com/product/introduction-to-chinese-culture-
guobin-xu/

Cellular Image Classification 1st Edition Xiang Xu

https://textbookfull.com/product/cellular-image-
classification-1st-edition-xiang-xu/

Cyber Security Intelligence and Analytics Zheng Xu

https://textbookfull.com/product/cyber-security-intelligence-and-
analytics-zheng-xu/
Learning Java With Games Chong-Wei Xu

https://textbookfull.com/product/learning-java-with-games-chong-
wei-xu/

Risk Management in Finance and Logistics Chunhui Xu

https://textbookfull.com/product/risk-management-in-finance-and-
logistics-chunhui-xu/

Society and Technological Change Rudi Volti

https://textbookfull.com/product/society-and-technological-
change-rudi-volti/

Technological Change 1st Edition Clotilde Coron

https://textbookfull.com/product/technological-change-1st-
edition-clotilde-coron/

Diameter Transformed Fluidized Bed Fundamentals and

Practice Youhao Xu

https://textbookfull.com/product/diameter-transformed-fluidized-
bed-fundamentals-and-practice-youhao-xu/
Shoubo Xu

Technological
Economics
Technological Economics
Shoubo Xu

Technological Economics

123
Shoubo Xu
Beijing Jiaotong University
Beijing, China

ISBN 978-981-15-8581-4 ISBN 978-981-15-8582-1 (eBook)

https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-8582-1
Jointly published with Beijing Jiaotong University Press
The print edition is not for sale in Chinese mainland. Customers from Chinese mainland please order the
print book from: Beijing Jiaotong University Press.

© Beijing Jiaotong University Press and Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2020
This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved by the Publishers, whether the whole or part
of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations,
recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission
or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar
methodology now known or hereafter developed.
The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this
publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from
the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use.
The publishers, the authors, and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this
book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publishers nor the
authors or the editors give a warranty, express or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or
for any errors or omissions that may have been made. The publishers remain neutral with regard to
jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

This Springer imprint is published by the registered company Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd.
The registered company address is: 152 Beach Road, #21-01/04 Gateway East, Singapore 189721,
Singapore
Preface

Between December 1962 and April 1963, based on the request from the Party
Central Committee headed by Mao Zedong regarding establishing a new discipline
that would combine technology and economics together, the Party Central
Committee Leadership for Science assigned the author of this book three tasks:
investigating the relevant domestic and international progress made on the subject,
coining a new subject to be called “technological economics”, and drafting the
outline of developing technological economy in China. As an important emerging
scientific research field, technological economics was initiated in 1962 and was
officially launched in the Ten-Year National Scientific and Technological
Development Plan (1963–1972),1 which was approved by the Party Central
Committee and the State Council in 1963. The newly-named field of technological
economics was listed in the development plan and became one of the seven main
science and technology research fields, together with subjects such as natural
resource study, industrial science and technology, agricultural science and tech-
nology, medical science and technology, science of technology, and basic science.
For the first time, technological economics was listed together with other main
research fields in the history of Chinese science and technology development, even
in the history of science and technology development in the world, with profound
significance. However, unlike in other main research fields mentioned above, the
theories and research methods in technological economics were still awaiting
development; thus, the new field could not be named as the science and technology
of technological economics, or the science of technological economics. Therefore,
the term “technological economics” was used and adopted.
Exploring theories and research methods in technological economics was the
most important task in the aforementioned development plan regarding techno-
logical economy. Because no one else took on this task, the author of this book

1
The Ten-Year National Scientific and Technological Development Plan (1963–1972) [EB/OL].
Available at http://www.most.gov.cn/ztzl/gjzcqgy/zcqgylshg/t20050831_24439.htm.

v
vi Preface

worked individually from 1963 to 1965 and finished the research report on
Methodology in Technological Economics Study.2 This report consists of six
sections, namely the introduction, an economic evaluation criteria for technological
problem-solving, comparison principles in technological economics, computational
methods in technological economics, an example solution using technological
economics, and using mathematical methods in technological economics research.
It has 26 chapters and about 240,000 words. The main portion of the report was
published in 1964 in the Chinese Science Bulletin, a journal of the Chinese
Academy of Sciences, with the title Purpose, Task, and Methods in Technological
Economics Research. This paper comprehensively and systematically proposed the
core of technological economics, including the definition of technological eco-
nomics, the basic principles of the contradictory but unified development rela-
tionship between technology and economy, the purposes and meaning of
technological economic research, three important tasks and 12 aspects of techno-
logical economic research, two research methods and five research steps in tech-
nological economic studies, the integrative and interdisciplinary characteristics of
technological economics, and the relationship between technological economics
and other related sub-disciplines, such as agricultural technological economics,
industrial technological economics, technological economics in the construction
industry, and technological economics in transportation industry. It was well
received by party leaders and experts.
In 1965, the expert panel on comprehensively utilizing combustible minerals
from the State Scientific and Technological Commission3 recommended publishing
the research report On Methodology in Technological Economics Study. However,
due to the burst of the Great Cultural Revolution in 1966, this report was not
published as a book. Instead, it was criticized publicly. The author of this book,
unfortunately, was named as a “reactionary academic authority” and was criticized.
After the Third Plenary Session of the 11th Central Committee of the
Communist Party of China in 1978, technological economics as a discipline was
reborn. Accordingly, the author named the research report of On Methodology in
Technological Economics as Introduction to Technological Economics and it was
published by Shanghai Science and Technology Press in 1980 with its original
content, five sections, 26 chapters, and about 240,000 words. It has attracted
attentions from scholars in China as well as scholars across the world. For example,
after reviewing this book, Eric Dark, a Swedish scholar, noted that “neither the
name of technological economics nor its research methods appeared in the eco-
nomics studies existed in the Soviet Union” in his article entitled Chinese
Technological Economics4 which was published in the September Issue, 1981, in

2
Actually it is the prototype of Introduction to Technological Economics published in 1980.
3
The author was the youngest member in the expert panel of comprehensively utilizing
combustible minerals of the State Scientific and Technological Commission. The leader was Hou
Xianglin, a member of Chinese Academy of Sciences.
4
Eric Dark, Chinese Technological Economics, Translation Series for Quantitative and Technological
Economics, 1983, (1): pp. 36–42 (Translation of Asian Survey, September Issue, 1981).
Preface vii

an American journal entitled Asian Survey. He made the following comments: “In
Soviet Union’s economics studies, the discipline that is the closest to technological
economics is Industrial Sector Economics”; “Technological economics is somewhat
closer to the cost-benefit analysis in western economics studies”; and “It is very
interesting to study the concepts in the discipline of technological economics.” This
feedback proved that the discipline of technological economics established by a
Chinese scholar was not only well known in China, but also internationally known.
In 1980, Introduction to Technological Economics as the first book on techno-
logical economics was published for the first time in the world. The technological
economic principles and methods introduced in this book reflected the character-
istics of planned socialist economy which was established by the first generation
party leadership headed by Mao Zedong, which focused on hard technological
economics and macro-technological economics.
By implementing the reform and opening up policy, the second generation Party
Central Committee headed by Deng Xiaoping initiated the new era of socialist
market economy. As the Founding Executive Director of the Chinese Society for
Technological Economics and the Founding Director of the Institute of
Technological Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, the author
of this book delivered numerous lectures and presentations on technological eco-
nomics at diverse forums and classes hosted by the central government and
provincial governments, as well as at Tsinghua University, Beijing College of
Chemical Industry,5 and the Graduate School of Chinese Academy of Social
Sciences.6 The audiences included government employees, professors, graduate
students, college students, engineers, and managers.
In 1984, entrusted by China Association for Science and Technology (CAST),
the author finished the book Technological Economics, which has two volumes, 24
chapters, and 450,000 words and was published by the CAST Lecturer Group and
China Society of Science and Technology Policy Studies. This is the second edition
of the technological economics monograph. Compared with the first edition, the
second one offered new content, such as the ten characteristics of technological
economics, the six-force theory, evaluation principles for greater, faster, better, and
more economical results, comprehensive evaluation principles and their quantitative
computational methods, new methods for defining economic effect coefficients,
setting reasonable prices for imported and exported goods, methods for setting
proper tax rates and interest rates, and many examples of new applications. In
addition, the second edition absorbed new overseas research achievements, such as
serial decision-making and probability analysis methods, and it reviewed the use of
feasible study and value engineering adopted in western economy. The second
edition was selected as the teaching material for continuing education for scientific
and technological management cadres.

5
Teacher Training Session for Technological Economics Program in higher education institutions
in China.
6
Technological Economics was chosen as the textbook.
viii Preface

It was officially proposed at the Third Plenary Session of the 12th Central
Committee of Communist Party of China in 1984 that the Chinese economic system
was a socialist planned commodity economy, which emphasized not only
macro-control, but also micro-invigoration. In other words, this economic system
focused on both macro- and micro-economic results. Directed by this newly
launched principle and policy, the author updated and revised the second edition. In
1986, the third edition was published by Jiangsu People’s Publishing House. This
edition had eight sections, 35 chapters, and 600,000 words. It expanded the content
in the second edition by adding the theories, research methodologies, and appli-
cations of micro-technological economics. The first and second editions of this
book mainly covered macro-technological economics, which fitted a socialist
planned economy. The third edition covered integrative technological economics,
which included both macro-technological and micro-technological economics and
fitted a socialist planned commodity economy. This was a major breakthrough and
a significant movement put forward by the reform of the Chinese economic system.
Soon after the third edition was published, it became the textbook for the major of
Technological Economics in higher education institutions across China.
In 1988, in order to better meet the diverse needs from the society in China,
especially the demands from engineers and technicians as well as from college
students majoring in science and engineering, the author revised the third edition
and compressed the content according to feedback from readers. Published again by
Jiangsu People’s Publishing House, the fourth edition had four sections and 19
chapters, reduced from eight sections and 35 chapters in the third edition. The
words reduced from 600,000 to 400,000, accordingly. However, the fourth edition
made improvements to the scope and depth of the book as well as to the practi-
cability of its content. It consisted of four sections: Introduction to Technological
Economics, Theories of Technological Economics, Research Methods of
Technological Economics, and Applications of Technological Economics. More
specifically, Introduction to Technological Economics roundly elaborated the six
characteristics of theory and research methods in a technological economics study:
(1) guided by the economic theories of Marxism and Mao Zedong Thought;
(2) based on the economic law of socialism and law of value; (3) aiming at
achieving greater, faster, better, and more economical results in building socialism;
(4) adopting both qualitative and quantitative methods; (5) considering the practice
of Chinese Socialist Modernization Construction; and (6) aiming at correctly
understanding and handling the relationships of unity and contradiction, and the
developments and changes between technology and economy. This section cre-
atively extended the concept of technology and proposed a new concept, general-
ized technology, which included soft technology and hard technology. In addition,
this section discussed the objects of study of newly proposed generalized tech-
nology. In the Principles of Technological Economics section, the author originally
proposed six principles in technological economics: (1) the principle of effect in
technological economics; (2) the standardization principle in technological eco-
nomics; (3) the comparative principle in technological economics; (4) the opti-
mization principle in technological economics; (5) forecasting and decision-making
Preface ix

in technological economics; and (6) information and control in technological

economics. Specifically, the author elaborated the principle of effect in techno-
logical economics and further proposed seven sub-principles, namely, the contra-
dictory and unification principle in technological economics, the principle of
economic effect indicators, the principle of economic increment, the principle of
time effect, the principle of supply and demand effect, the principle of systems, and
the principal of six forces substitution. In order to make it more readable, the author
adjusted the order of the methods introduced in Section Three by moving the
methods for computing each single index, specifically the method for computing
time factor, to the beginning and by placing comprehensive computing methods at
the end. This section combined the strength of economic analysis methods in the
East and the West and added new content to the methods for computing time
factors, the methods for technological economic assessment, and the methods for
comprehensively assessing technologies. Considering that the number of applica-
tion cases had been limited in the third edition, the author added application cases
regarding micro-technological economic theories and methods in the fourth section,
including some daily life cases. Therefore, the fourth edition could meet not only
the requirements from governmental officials, consulting firms, banks, financial
institutions for policy-making, planning, macro-economic control, capital invest-
ment, feasibility studies, and project appraisal, but also requirements from engi-
neers, technicians, and business management practitioners who conduct
engineering design, product development, operations management. Furthermore,
the fourth edition could serve as a good reference for readers from the third industry
in the fields of scientific research, culture, education, and healthcare, as well as for
ordinary families. The unique characteristic of the fourth edition was that it com-
bined and unified macro-technological economics and micro-technological eco-
nomics in theories, methods, and applications. As such, it was selected as the
textbook for a required course in the national Continuing Education Program for
Engineers approved by the Central Radio and TV University. It has been printed
several times and has helped more than 100,000 people pass the exam in Beijing.
The fourth edition has played a key role in training engineers and technicians.
Since 1988, China has made tremendous progress in economic and societal
development under the leadership of the Central Committee of the Communist
Party of China, headed by Deng Xiaoping, Jiang Zemin, and Hu Jintao, respec-
tively. Especially after the 14th National Congress of the Communist Party of
China in 1992 that clarified the goal of establishing a socialist market economy
system in China, the economy in China has been developing even more rapidly. For
nearly 20 years, the author worked at the Technological Economy Research
Institute of the State Development and Planning Commission (SDPC), and at
Beijing Jiao Tong University, respectively. During this period, the author con-
ducted a series of important studies about the soft technological economy and the
hard technological economy for the state, for local governments, and for firms and
obtained more than 200 findings. This number was greater than the total that the
author had obtained before 1988. Thus, the author thought that it was necessary to
add these 200-plus findings to the latest book of this book. Meanwhile, the author
x Preface

enriched and improved the theories and methods in technological economics

according to the requirements of the socialist market economy system. This book
made technological economics have more of the characteristics of Chinese
Economics in the East, more original content, and more practical results of
implementation. It will help researchers and scholars, both in China and overseas, to
better understand the history and achievements of technological economics which
was born in China and has contributed to the development of Chinese economy and
society and the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.
More than 60 years have passed since the new China was founded. Almost 50
years have passed since Technological Economics was approved by the Party
Central Committee and the State Council to be listed in the Ten-Year National
Scientific and Technological Development Plan (1963–1972). The author, who
began to study the theories, methods, and applications of technological economics
in 1963, has continued the study for more than 50 years. Although 50 years is only
a short period in the development of the Chinese nation, it is the majority of a
person’s life. The author was criticized heavily during the Great Cultural
Revolution because of establishing and developing this new inter-discipline.
Chinese technological economics has experienced unusual development path. The
author once noted: “Establishing a discipline is hard, but it is harder to make people
accept it. Be persistent and dauntless, because all difficulties will be overcome one
day. This is the law for invention, discovery, and innovation.”7
The characteristics of this book include the movement from a technological
economics study focusing on macro-technological economics theories and methods
and the problem-solving for hard technological economy issues before the reform
and opening up, to the focus shifting to micro-technological economy theories and
methods and the problem-solving of both hard and soft technological economy
issues after the reform and opening up, and finally to fixing hard and soft tech-
nological economy issues by combining macro- and micro-technological economy
theories and methods. That is the focus of the technological economics study today:
technological economics with unique Chinese characteristics. The book is abundant
in content and works to combine theory and practice. Many cases in this edition are
significant technological economy issues in China that are currently awaiting
solutions. The research results in this edition have attracted much attention from
leaders in the Party Central Committee and are adopted in practice. Great economic
benefits and social benefits have been achieved, due to this adoption.
It must be pointed out that although the materials and data in the previous
editions are out of date, they still serve to support an elaboration of theories and
methods. Therefore, the latest book retains them, unchanged. On one hand, these
materials and data help readers know better about the history of technological
economics. On the other hand, time-sensitive materials and data are changing all the
time. Any update at present time will be out of date soon. Thus, there is no need to
update these materials and data.

7
Xu Shoubo: Epigraph for the 45th anniversary of Science Times (published in Science Times on
November 24, 2003).
Preface xi

In order to adopt and unify terms and notations in technological economics, the
technical terms in technological economics originally born in China were adopted.
Chinese Pinyin is used as well.
According to the scientific outlook on development, the book still needs
improvement, although it has included more new innovative materials and
enhancements as compared with previous editions. The author hopes to continue
revising and improving the book in his remaining years. There is no end to
studying. So keep studying and never stop. There is no end to researching either. So
continue making innovations and never stop.8
The author wants to express his thankfulness to the chief editor Lv Ping and
editor Li Xue from Economic Science Press, and Xu Lida, Hou Hanping, Huang
Zongyuan, and Guo Lihua from Beijing Jiao Tong University. Without their help
and support, this book would not be available.

Beijing, China Shoubo Xu

September, 2011

8
Xu Shoubo: Epigraph for graduates of Beijing Jiao Tong University in 2009 (on the graduates’
album of Beijing JiaoTong University in 2009).
Contents

Part I Introduction to Technological Economics

1 Origin and Development of Technological Economics . . . . . . . . . . . 3
1.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
1.2 Background of Technological Economy Plan . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
1.3 History of Technological Economics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
1.4 Development of Technological Economics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
1.4.1 Creation and Initial Development of Technological
Economics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 11
1.4.2 Overall Destruction of Technological Economics . .. 13
1.4.3 Popularization and Continued Development
of Technological Economics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 13
1.4.4 Development of Applications of Technological
Economics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 14
1.5 Development Prospect of Technological Economics . . . . . . .. 15
1.5.1 Why Must the Study of Technological Economics
Have Distinct Chinese Characteristics? . . . . . . . . . .. 16
1.5.2 What Are the Distinctly Chinese Characteristics
of Technological Economics? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 18
1.5.3 What Distinct Chinese Characteristics Does
Technological Economics Have? . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 18
1.5.4 How to Keep the Distinctly Chinese
Characteristics? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 22
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 23
2 Objects of the Technological Economics Study . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
2.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
2.2 Concepts of Technology and Economy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
2.3 Objects of the Technological Economics Study . . . . . . . . . . . . 27

xiii
xiv Contents

2.4 Hard Technological Economics and Soft Technological

Economics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30
2.5 Macro-Technological Economics and Micro-Technological
Economics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
3 Purpose and Meaning of the Technological Economics Study . . . . . 33
3.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33
3.2 Purpose of the Study of Technological Economics . . . . . . . . . 33
3.3 Meaning of Technological Economics Study . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35
4 Tasks and Contents of a Technological Economics Study . . . . . . . . 39
4.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39
4.2 Tasks of Technological Economics Study . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39
4.3 Contents of the Technological Economics Study . . . . . . . . . . . 40
5 Methods and Procedures of the Technological Economics
Study . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45
5.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45
5.2 Methods of Technological Economics Study . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45
5.3 Procedure of Technological Economics Study . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47
6 Sub-disciplines of Technological Economics and the Relationship
Between Technological Economics and Other Disciplines . . . . . . .. 53
6.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 53
6.2 Sub-disciplines of Technological Economics . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 53
6.3 Characteristics of Technological Economics and the
Relationship Between Technological Economics
and Other Disciplines . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 55
Reference . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 59

Part II Theories of Technological Economics

7 Theory of the Technological Economy Entity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 63
7.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 63
7.2 Opinions of the Theory of Technological Economy Entity . . .. 64
7.2.1 Objective Reality of the Theory of Technological
Economy Entity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 64
7.2.2 Four Forms of the Entity of the Technological
Economy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 65
7.2.3 Varieties of the Entity of Technological
Economy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 65
7.2.4 Scientific Research Properties of the Entity
of Technological Economy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 66
Contents xv

7.3 Contradictory Unification Principle for Technological

Economy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 66
7.3.1 Unified and Adaptive Principle of Technology
and Economy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 67
7.3.2 Contradictory and Conflicted Principle
of Technology and Economy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 67
7.3.3 Developing and Changing Principle of Technology
and Economy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 68
Reference . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 68
8 Theory of Technological Economy Factors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69
8.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69
8.2 The Theory of Production Factors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70
8.2.1 The Hierarchy Theory of Production Factors . . . . . . 71
8.2.2 The Six Elements Theory of Production Factors . . . . 76
8.3 Theory of Life Factors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84
8.3.1 New Concept of Life Factor . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84
8.4 Six Elements Theory of Life Factors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90
9 Information Theory of the Technological Economy . . . . . . . . . . . . 91
9.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91
9.2 Information Concepts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92
9.3 Information Substance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92
9.4 Information Forms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93
9.5 Information Requirements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 94
9.5.1 Sufficiency . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 94
9.5.2 Accuracy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95
9.5.3 Timeliness . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95
9.5.4 Usefulness . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95
9.5.5 Economy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 96
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 96
10 Effect Theory of the Technological Economy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97
10.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97
10.2 Effect Concepts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97
10.3 Principle of Economic Result Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98
10.3.1 The Relationship Between Division
and Subtraction and Their Advantages
and Disadvantages . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ...... 99
10.3.2 Relations of Economic Efficiency, Economic
Effect, and Economic Result . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102
xvi Contents

10.4 Principle of Economic Increment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105

10.5 Principle of Time Effect . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 110
10.6 Principle of Supply and Demand Effect . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111
10.7 Principle of Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113
10.8 Principle of Six Forces Substitution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115
11 Evaluation Theory of the Technological Economy . . . . . . . . . . . . . 119
11.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 119
11.2 Evaluation Standard Principle of Greater, Faster, Better,
and More Economical Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 119
11.2.1 Labor Consumption LP of Technological
Schemes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 120
11.3 Use-Value SP of Technological Scheme . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 123
11.4 Practical Evaluating Standard of Greater, Faster, Better
and More Economic Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 125
11.4.1 The Content of the Practical Standard
for Evaluating Greater, Faster, Better,
and More Economic Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 125
11.4.2 Formula of the Principle of Standard for Evaluating
Greater, Faster, Better and More Economic
Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 125
11.5 Two Applications of the Evaluation Standard Principle
of Greater, Faster, Better and More Economic Results
and Related Formulas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 130
11.5.1 Formula for Evaluating Greater, Faster, Better,
and More Macroeconomic Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 132
11.5.2 Formula for Evaluating Greater, Faster, Better,
and More Microeconomic Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 133
11.6 Application Scope of Three Types of Economic Standard
Principles Regarding National Income, Net Income,
and Profits . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 134
11.7 Other Economic Evaluation Standard Principles . . . . . . . . . . . 139
11.8 Financial Evaluation and Economic Evaluation . . . . . . . . . . . . 140
11.9 Firm (Micro) Financial Evaluation and Social (Macro)
Economic Evaluation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 141
11.10 Absolute Economic Evaluation and Relative Economic
Evaluation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 141
11.11 Static Economic Evaluation and Dynamic Economic
Evaluation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 142
12 Comparison Theory of the Technological Economy . . . . . . . . . . . . 143
12.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 143
12.2 Comparison Principle of Technological Schemes . . . . . . . . . . 143
12.3 Principle of Demand–Meeting Comparison . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 145
Contents xvii

12.4 Principle of Consumption and Cost Comparison . . . . . . . . . . . 148

12.5 Principle of Price Comparison . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 149
12.6 Principle of Time Comparison . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 150
13 Optimization Theory of the Technological Economy . . . . . . . . . . . . 151
13.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 151
13.2 Unlimited Optimization and Limited Optimization . . . . . . . . . 151
13.3 Local Optimization and Global Optimization . . . . . . . . . . . . . 152
13.4 Static Optimization and Dynamic Optimization . . . . . . . . . . . . 153
13.5 Single-Target Optimization and Multi-target Optimization . . . . 154
13.6 Optimization and Satisfaction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 154
14 Control Theory of Technological Economy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 155
14.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 155
14.2 Open Loop Control and Closed Loop Control . . . . . . . . . . . . . 155
14.3 Macro Control and Micro Control . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 156
Reference . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 156
15 Decision Making Theory of Technological Economy . . . . . . . . . . . . 157
15.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 157
15.2 Principle of Prediction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 157
15.3 Principle of Decision Making . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 158
16 Comprehensive Evaluation Theory of Technological Economy . . . . 161
16.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 161
16.2 Necessity of Comprehensive Evaluation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 161
16.3 Theories of Comprehensive Evaluation and Their
Development History . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 163
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 167

Part III Research Methods of Technological Economics

17 Method for Establishing a Technological Economics Index
System . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 171
17.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 171
17.2 Economics Index System and Technological Index System . . . 171
17.3 Monetary Index System and Material Index System . . . . . . . . 173
17.4 Comprehensive Index System and Single Index System . . . . . 173
17.5 Quantitative Index System and Qualitative Index System . . . . . 174
17.6 Relative Quantitative (Unit) Index System and Absolute
Quantitative (Total) Index System . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 174
17.7 Macro Index System and Micro Index System . . . . . . . . . . . . 175
17.8 Dynamic Index System and Static Index System . . . . . . . . . . . 176
17.9 Assessment Index System for Technological Economy . . . . . . 177
xviii Contents

18 Methods for Computing Technological Economy Indices . . . . . . . . 179

18.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 179
18.2 Calculation Method for Time Factor . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 179
18.2.1 Interest Factor . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 180
18.2.2 Method of Simple Interest . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 180
18.2.3 Method of Compound Interest . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 181
18.2.4 Time Factor Calculation Table and Its Method
of Use . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 183
18.3 Defining Time Index . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 195
18.3.1 Construction Period . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 195
18.3.2 Period of Service . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 204
18.3.3 Defining Calculation Period . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 204
18.4 Calculation Method for Rational Price . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 205
18.4.1 Adopting Rational Prices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 205
18.4.2 Adopting the Total Consumption Costs of Relevant
Sectors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 208
18.4.3 Adopting Rational Prices for Imported
and Exported Commodities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 210
18.4.4 Adopting the Price in International Market
and Rational Exchange Rate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 211
18.4.5 Rational Price Ratio . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 213
18.4.6 Rational Bargain, Reduced Price and Privileged
Price . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 214
18.5 Calculation Methods for Standard Economic Effect
Coefficients . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 216
18.5.1 Calculation Methods for the Standard Economic
Effects Coefficient of Capital Utilization Effect . . . . . 216
18.5.2 Calculation Methods for the Standard Economic
Effect Efficient of Material Utilization . . . . . . . . . . . 222
18.5.3 Calculation Methods for the Standard Economic
Effect Coefficient of Transportation Utilization . . . . . 225
18.5.4 Calculation Methods for the Standard Economic
Effect Coefficient of Labor Utilization . . . . . . . . . . . 227
18.5.5 Calculation Methods for the Standard Economic
Effect Coefficient of Natural Resources
Utilization . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 230
18.5.6 The Relationship Among the Economic Effect
Coefficients . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 233
18.5.7 Other Calculation Methods for Economic Effect
Coefficients . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 234
18.6 Calculation Methods for Tax Rate and Interest Rate . . . . . . . . 237
18.6.1 Calculation Method of Tax Rate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 237
18.6.2 Determining Interest Rate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 239
Contents xix

18.7 Calculation Methods for Inputs and Costs of Technological

Schemes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 240
18.7.1 Calculation Method for Investment Occupation
of Technological Schemes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 240
18.7.2 Calculation Methods for the Usage Amount of
Materials, Transportation, Labor, and Natural
Resources by Technological Schemes . . . . . . . . . . . 248
18.7.3 Calculation Methods for the Cost of Technological
Schemes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 249
18.8 Calculation Methods for Outputs and Benefits of
Technological Scheme . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 256
18.8.1 Calculation Methods for Output of Technological
Schemes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 257
18.8.2 Calculation Methods for Benefits of Technological
Schemes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 260
18.9 Calculating Costs and Benefits with Shadow Price . . . . . . . . . 262
18.9.1 The Theoretical Principles for Shadow Price . . . . . . 263
18.9.2 Shadow Price Calculation Method . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 266
18.9.3 Calculating Costs and Benefits with Shadow
Price . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 272
18.10 Calculation Methods of Economic Proportion for
Comprehensive Utilization Technological Schemes . . . . . . . . . 277
18.10.1 Economic Allocation Methods for Comprehensive
Utilization Technological Schemes with Separate
Alternatives Available . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 277
18.10.2 Economic Allocation Methods for Comprehensive
Utilization Technological Schemes Without
Separate Alternatives Available . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 280
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 281
19 Methods for Technological Economic Evaluation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 283
19.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 283
19.2 Comparison Between Evaluation Methods for Micro
and Macro Technological Economy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 284
19.2.1 Characteristics and Effects of Evaluation Methods
for Micro and Macro Technological Economy . . . . . 284
19.2.2 Common Characteristics of Evaluation Methods
for Micro and Macro Technological Economy . . . . . 285
19.2.3 The Differences Between Evaluation Methods
for Macro and Micro Technological Economy . . . . . 293
19.3 Evaluation Methods for Macro Technological Economy . . . . . 295
19.3.1 Net Income Series Methods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 296
19.3.2 Derived Methods from Net Income Series
Methods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 318
xx Contents

19.3.3 National Income Series Methods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 335

19.3.4 Principles for Applying Technological Economy
Evaluation Methods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 335
19.4 Evaluation Methods for Micro Technological Economy . . . . . . 343
19.4.1 Methods Based on Profits . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 343
19.4.2 Derived Methods from Those Based on Profits . . . . . 347
19.5 Complete Technological Economy Evaluation Methods . . . . . . 366
19.6 Reviews of Relevant Foreign Methods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 368
19.6.1 Former Soviet Union’s Departmental Economics
and Methods for Calculating Investment Economic
Effect . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 368
19.6.2 Technological Economy Demonstration in the
Former Soviet Union and East European
Countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 369
19.6.3 Engineering Economics and Economic Analysis
Methods in Western Countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 370
19.6.4 Cost-Benefit Analysis in Western Countries . . . . . . . 371
19.6.5 Feasibility Study in Western Countries . . . . . . . . . . . 371
19.6.6 Value Engineering in Western Countries . . . . . . . . . 372
20 Methods for Comprehensive Evaluation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 375
20.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 375
20.2 Evaluation Methods Regarding Politics, National Defense,
Society, Culture, Technology, Economy, Environment,
and Resources . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 375
20.2.1 Graded Approach . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 377
20.2.2 Index Method . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 378
20.3 Technical Comprehensive Evaluation Methods . . . . . . . . . . . . 379
20.3.1 Economic Evaluation Method for Technical
Comprehensive Benefits . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 379
20.3.2 Technical Comprehensive Evaluation Method . . . . . . 380
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 392
21 Applications of Various Assessment Methods in the Technological
Economy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 393
21.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 393
21.2 Comparison Method (Scheme Comparison Method)
and It Application . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 393
21.3 Tabulation Method and Its Application . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 395
21.4 Figure Method and Its Application . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 396
21.4.1 Technological Economy Optimization Figure . . . . . . 396
21.4.2 Technological Economy Decision Tree and Net
Figure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 400
21.4.3 Network Plan Figure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 405
Contents xxi

21.5 Analysis Method and Its Application . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 405

21.5.1 Technological Economy Factor Analysis . . . . . . . . . 406
21.5.2 Economy Critical Value Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 409
21.5.3 Economic Security Coefficient Analysis . . . . . . . . . . 414
21.5.4 Min-Max (or Max-Min) Analysis and Max-Max
(or Min-Min) Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 415
21.6 Applications of Mathematics Methods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 415
21.6.1 Applications of Optimized Method . . . . . . . . . . . . . 416
21.6.2 Applications of Mathematical Analysis . . . . . . . . . . 416
21.6.3 Applications of Operational Research . . . . . . . . . . . . 418
21.6.4 Applications of Probability Theory and
Mathematical Statistics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 421
21.7 Applications of Computers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 427
21.7.1 Calculation for Technological Economical
Evaluation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 427
21.7.2 Finding Solutions for Technological Economy
Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 427
21.7.3 Technological Economy Forecast . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 428
21.7.4 Data Processing and Storage for Technological
Economy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 428
21.8 Applications of Survey . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 428
Reference . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 429

Part IV Applications of Technological Economics

22 Applications of Technological Economics Theories
and Methods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 433
22.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 433
22.2 Technological Economic Evaluation by Making Full
Use of Local Advantages . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 433
22.3 Technological Economic Issues of Resource Exploration . . . . . 435
22.4 Forecast of Market Demands . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 435
22.5 Technological Economy Issues of Firm Size . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 437
22.5.1 Factors Impacting Firm Size . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 438
22.5.2 Economic Evaluation Methods for Firm Size . . . . . . 439
22.6 Location of Production and Site Selection . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 441
22.7 Selection of Raw Materials . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 442
22.7.1 Economic Evaluation Method for Raw Material
Producing and Processing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 442
22.7.2 Economic Evaluation Method for Alternative
Raw Materials . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 445
22.7.3 Economic Evaluation Method for Saving Raw
Materials . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 447
xxii Contents

22.8 Technological Economic Study on Transportation, Post,

and Communications . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 448
22.8.1 Economic Effect Evaluation for Transportation . . . . . 448
22.8.2 Evaluation of Economic Effects for Post
and Telecommunications . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 453
22.9 Economic Evaluation for Production Process . . . . . . . . . . . . . 455
22.10 Economic Evaluation on New Technologies and New
Products . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 462
22.10.1 Economic Evaluation Methods for New
Technologies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 462
22.10.2 Economic Evaluation Method for New Products . . . . 464
22.11 Technological Economic Evaluation for Technological
Transformation and Equipment Replacement . . . . . . . . . . . . . 464
22.12 Economic Evaluation on Imported Technologies . . . . . . . . . . . 467
22.13 Product Technological Economy-Applications
of Value Engineering . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 467
22.13.1 Feature (P, J) Evaluation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 469
22.13.2 Expense (Z) Evaluation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 471
22.13.3 Evaluation of Economic Effects . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 471
22.14 Economic Evaluation for Standardization . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 472
22.15 Economic Evaluation for Environmental Protection . . . . . . . . . 473
22.15.1 Economic Effect of Environmental Protection . . . . . . 473
22.15.2 Selection of Measures for Environmental
Pollution Control . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 475
22.15.3 Rational Allocation of Environmental Protection
Investment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 476
22.16 Setting the Construction Period . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 476
22.17 Setting up Operation Parameters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 477
22.18 Setting up Correct Inventory . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 478
22.19 Technological Economy in the Third Industry . . . . . . . . . . . . . 479
22.20 Economic Evaluation and Comprehensive Evaluation
for Scientific Research . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 481
22.20.1 Characteristics of Evaluation for Scientific
Research . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 481
22.20.2 Evaluation Methods for Scientific Research . . . . . . . 481
22.21 Technological Economy in Daily Life . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 483
22.22 Technological Economy in Construction Projects -
Applications of Feasibility Study . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 484
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 491
23 Applications of Technological Economics . . . . . . . . . .... . . . . . . . 493
23.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .... . . . . . . . 493
23.2 Design Standard of Heating Systems in China . .... . . . . . . . 493
23.3 Reasonable Utilization and Allocation of Heavy Oil . . . . . . . . 501
Contents xxiii

23.4 Rational Utilization of Industrial Secondary Energy

in China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 506
23.5 Issues and Opinions About Energy in China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 518
23.6 National Income and Net Income Should be the Major
Goal of Our National Economy Development . . . . . . . . . . . . . 525
23.7 Technological Economic Evaluation for Scientific
and Technological Progress . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 528
23.8 Technological Economic Study of Coal-Developing Policy . . . 535
23.9 Study on the Strategic Problems of Chinese Energy
Development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 552
23.9.1 Content of Energy Development Strategy
and Principle Preparation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 552
23.9.2 Strategic Thinking of China’s Energy
Development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 554
23.9.3 Objective of China Energy Development
Strategy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 556
23.9.4 Predication of the Overall Goal of China Energy
Development Strategy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 560
23.9.5 Arrangement of China’s Energy Development
Strategy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 574
23.9.6 Key Points of China’s Energy Development
Strategy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 576
23.9.7 Guidelines, Policies, and Measures for China’s
Energy Development Strategy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 577
23.10 Energy Saving Problem Analysis and Corresponding Policy
Proposals Post-evaluation of China’s Generalized Energy
Efficiency Strategy Project . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 588
23.10.1 Review of Energy Saving in China . . . . . . . . . . . . . 588
23.10.2 Evaluation of China’s Generalized Energy
Efficiency Strategic Project . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 591
23.10.3 Comparison of New and Old Energy Development
Strategic Projects in China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 613
23.10.4 Development Outlook and Problems for China’s
Generalized Energy Efficiency Strategic Project . . . . 618
23.10.5 Countermeasures and Suggestions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 630
23.11 Problems About Economic Growth Speed . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 637
23.11.1 Changes of Economic Growth Rate Fluctuates
Periodically. The Cycle is 3–6 Years. The Average
Gap Between the Highest Speed and Lowest Speed
is 5–10% Points . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 638
23.11.2 Economic Growth Rates Fall into the Categories
of Middle-High Speed, Middle-Low Speed, and
Interim Speed . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 639
xxiv Contents

23.12 Study of Overall Husbandry Strategy, Planning,

and Countermeasures in China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 641
23.12.1 Guidelines for China’s Energy Saving
Development Strategy-Comprehensive Saving
Strategy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 644
23.12.2 Goals and Plans for China’s Comprehensive
Energy Strategy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 648
23.12.3 Steps and Key Points of China’s Comprehensive
Saving Strategy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 660
23.12.4 Countermeasures and Measures for Comprehensive
Saving in China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 662
23.13 China Efficiency Revolution−Several Problems on Chinese
Socialist Market Economy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 669
23.13.1 Comparison of Two Revolutions: Fairness
Revolution and Efficiency Revolution . . . . . . . . . . . 670
23.13.2 Chinese Socialist Market Economy will be a New
Market Economy Model with Strength of Various
Economic Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 675
23.13.3 How does Government Perform Macro
Management in the Socialist Economy in China . . . . 679
23.13.4 Germination, Growth, and Maturity Stages
of Socialist Market Economy will be the Time
with the Highest Growth Rate in China’s
History . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 685
23.14 Major Indices for Measuring Chinese Economic Situations
and Their Regulation and Control Approaches . . . . . . . . . . . . 688
23.14.1 Major Indicators for Measuring and Assessing
China’s Economic Situation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 689
23.14.2 Comprehensive Assessment for Economic
Situation with the Seven Key Indicators . . . . . . . . . . 702
23.14.3 Comprehensive Assessment Results of China’s
Economic Situation After Reform
and Opening Up . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 706
23.14.4 Approaches and Means for Macro Control . . . . . . . . 707
23.14.5 Several Suggestions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 707
23.15 Scientific Index for Transition of Economic Growth
Modes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 709
23.15.1 Why Transform Economic Growth Mode . . . . . . . . . 710
23.15.2 Transformation of Economic Growth Mode
Requires a Scientific Evaluation Indicator
System . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 715
23.15.3 Indicators for Measuring and Assessing Extensive
and Intensive Economic Growth Modes . . . . . . . . . . 716
Contents xxv

23.15.4 Indicator for Measuring Transformation Direction

of Economic Growth Mode and Transformation
Speed . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 729
23.15.5 Indicator for Measuring the Transformation
of Economic Growth Modes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 731
23.15.6 Indicator for Measuring the Economic Effects
Generated by Transformation of Economic
Growth Modes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 732
23.15.7 Policies and Measures for Transforming Economic
Growth Modes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 738
23.15.8 Application Cases . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 740
23.16 Study on Energy Security and Energy Development
Problems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 743
23.16.1 Analysis of Development of Energy Security
and Oil Security in China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 745
23.16.2 Strategy Choice and Measures for Oil Security
in China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 757
23.16.3 Analysis of Status of the Energy Bottleneck
and Coordinated Development Between Energy
and the Economy in China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 761
23.16.4 Strategy and Measures for Breaking the Energy
Bottleneck in China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 767
23.17 Material Flow Theory and the Strategy for the Rise of Central
China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 780
23.17.1 The Strategy for the Rise of Central China Creates
a Historical Opportunity for the Development
of Six Provinces in Central China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 781
23.17.2 Material Flow is the Key for Accelerating
Economic and Social Development in Central
Region . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 784
23.18 Commodity Material Flow Theory . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 796
23.18.1 New Theory of Commodity Material Flow . . . . . . . . 796
23.18.2 Commerce Theory . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 805
23.19 Realization of the Five Modernizations is the New
Goal of the Social and Economic Development Strategy
in China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 808
23.19.1 How were the Four Modernizations Proposed
in the Twentieth Century? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 809
23.19.2 Realization of Five Modernizations is the New
Goal for Social and Economic Development
in the New Century . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 811
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 816
xxvi Contents

24 Approaches and Measures for Improving Technological

Economic Effect . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 819
24.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 819
24.2 Ten Approaches for Improving Economic Effect of Firms
and Society . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 819
24.3 Factors Influencing Economic Effects of Firms
and Society . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 821
24.4 Analytical Methods for Economic Effects of Firms
and Society . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 822
25 The New Discipline System of Management of the Big
Technological Economy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 827
25.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 827
25.2 New Concept of Management . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 827
25.3 New Study Objects . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 828
25.4 Narrow-Sense Management and Generalized
Management . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 829
25.5 Categories of Management and Disciplines
of Management . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 831
25.6 Two Elements of Management-Power and Science . . . . . . . . . 832
25.7 The 21st Century Is a Century of Management (MR) . . . . . . . 833
25.8 A New Discipline System-Big Technological Economic
Management Science . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 834
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 836

Appendix A: Terms and Symbols in Technological Economics . . . . . . . . 837

Appendix B: Time Factor Calculator . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 843
Appendix C: Catalogue of Author’s Total Achievement . . . . . . . . . . . . . 893
About the Author

Shoubo Xu (1931–), Shaoxing, Zhejiang province,

graduated from power engineering department of
Nanjing Institute of Technology in 1955. In 1960, he
received his Ph.D. in technology and science from the
Energy Institute of the former Academy of Sciences of
USSR. He was elected as an academician of the
Chinese Academy of Engineering in 2001. He is a
professor and doctoral supervisor at the School of
Economics and Management, Beijing Jiaotong
University. He serves as the founding director of
China Center for Economic Research, the Institute of
Logistics, and Comprehensive Energy Research
Institute at Beijing Jiaotong University.
For more than 50 years, he has been specialized in
scientific research and teaching at the Chinese
Academy of Sciences, the Chinese Academy of
Social Sciences, the China National Development and
Reform Commission, and the Ministry of Education.
He has made 449 theoretical and application
achievements, including technological economics,
comprehensive energy engineering, logistics, and man-
agement, in four disciplines, with more than 50 awards,
including nine scientific and technological progress
awards (one for each country and one third for the
country, one for the provincial and ministerial level,
four for the second prize, and twice for the third prize).
He served as the national science and technology
economy and management modernization of the expert
group members, the first secretary-general, Chinese

xxvii
xxviii About the Author

technical and economic research institute, Chinese

academy of social sciences institute of technology
economy (now number of economy and technology
research institute) first, graduate school of Chinese
academy of social sciences, director of technology
economics (now number economic predecessor of the
department of economics and technology) of the first
department, the state planning commission technical
and economic research institute (now the national
development and reform commission, the industry
economy and technology research institute) director.
He served as the national science and technology
commission combustible comprehensive utilization of
mineral expert group members, the technical and
economic research center under the state council energy
group, national energy commission, head of the advi-
sory, the department of energy senior advisory com-
mittee and the state council NengYuanBan research
advisory bureau, the first deputy executive director
of the energy institute—the first Beijing energy society,
the first vice President of Chinese society for the study
of the energy base, ZongKaoHui comprehensive
energy, Chinese academy of science (now the national
development and reform commission energy research
institute), head of the first. He was the first vice
President of China logistics research association and the
first director of logistics technical economics committee
of China logistics association.
The Technical Economics (fifth edition, Beijing:
economic science press, 2011.8) written by Shoubo Xu
academician won the third session of the Chinese
government published book award nomination. This
award is not only affirmed Shoubo Xu academician
“technical economics” original subject status and
contribution, at the same time for “technical eco-
nomics” in the new era better promote social and
economic development is of great significance.
 Part I
Introduction to Technological Economics

This section describes the most significant research result achieved by the author
during his early study on technological economics. As the most important part of this
book, this section is the foundation for the following sections. There are six chapters in
this section. The first chapter elaborates the origin and development of technological
economics according to the author’s personal experience. The second chapter covers
the objects of technological economics study. The purpose and meaning of techno-
logical economics study is discussed in the third chapter. The fourth chapter points
out the tasks and contents of technological economics study. In the fifth chapter,
methods and procedure of technological economics study are introduced. Finally,
the sixth chapter outlines the sub-disciplines of technological economics and the
relationship between technological economics and other disciplines.
Chapter 1
Origin and Development of Technological
Economics

1.1 Introduction

Did technological economics originate in China? Or did it originate in another country

or other countries? How, when, and why did it form? What is its development process?
How does it play on the economic and social development of China? The answers
are not well known by young people in China or by scholars across the world. As
such, based on his personal experience, the author elaborates how technological
economics formed and developed as an inter-discipline under the leadership of Yu
Guangyuan, a famous economist in the Party Central Committee Leadership for
Science during early 1960s. This chapter consists of four parts: the background of
technological economy plan, the history of technological economics, the develop-
ment of technological economics, and the development prospects of technological
economics.

1.2 Background of Technological Economy Plan

Before the start of the introduction to the origin of technological economics, the
background of the technological economy plan must be explained. It is an objective
fact that the technological economy’s plan was made before technological economics
formed.
It is well known that the former Soviet Union assisted China in establishing 156
key projects during the first five year plan (1952–1957) after new China was founded
in 1949. China achieved great economic development at the end of the first five
year plan. However, in the second five year plan (1958–1962), because of a number
of reasons such as the Great Leap Forward, the Mass Movement of Making Iron,
mass movements, natural disasters, and the breakup between China and the former
Soviet Union, the Chinese economy decreased greatly. In December 1962, the Party
Central Committee requested that a long term national economy plan and a long term

© Beijing Jiaotong University Press and Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2020 3
S. Xu, Technological Economics,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-8582-1_1
Another random document with
no related content on Scribd:
The Project Gutenberg eBook of Lord Lister
No. 0026: Inspecteur Baxter in het
krankzinnigengesticht
 This ebook is for the use of anyone anywhere in the United States
and most other parts of the world at no cost and with almost no
restrictions whatsoever. You may copy it, give it away or re-use it
under the terms of the Project Gutenberg License included with this
ebook or online at www.gutenberg.org. If you are not located in the
United States, you will have to check the laws of the country where
you are located before using this eBook.

Title: Lord Lister No. 0026: Inspecteur Baxter in het

krankzinnigengesticht

Author: Theo von Blankensee

Kurt Matull

Release date: December 23, 2023 [eBook #72493]

Language: Dutch

Original publication: Amsterdam: Roman- Boek- en Kunsthandel,

1910

Credits: Jeroen Hellingman and the Online Distributed Proofreading

Team at https://www.pgdp.net/ for Project Gutenberg

*** START OF THE PROJECT GUTENBERG EBOOK LORD LISTER

NO. 0026: INSPECTEUR BAXTER IN HET
KRANKZINNIGENGESTICHT ***
[Inhoud]

[1]

[Inhoud]

☞ Elke aflevering bevat een volledig verhaal. ☜

UITGAVE VAN DEN „ROMAN-BOEKHANDEL VOORHEEN A. EICHLER”, SINGEL
236,—AMSTERDAM.

[Inhoud]
Inspecteur Baxter in het
Krankzinnigengesticht.
EERSTE HOOFDSTUK.
 HET KRIJGSPLAN VAN RAFFLES.

Raffles, de groote Raffles, de man, van wien geheel Londen en de pers

als van het grootste genie spraken, dat zich ooit met de
misdadigerssport had beziggehouden, Raffles zat met zijn jongen vriend
en helper, Charly Brand, in een café in de Cromwellstraat te Londen en
las couranten.

Charly Brand deed hetzelfde.

Niemand zou in de twee gedistingeerde gentlemen en door de politie

gevreesde en door de detectives gezochte amateur-misdadigers hebben
herkend.

Alsof er geen politie bestond, zoo kalm zat Raffles in het druk bezochte
lokaal, rookte zijn cigarette en fixeerde door zijn monocle af en toe de
overige gasten.

De couranten schenen zijn belangstelling wakker te roepen.

Plotseling nam hij uit zijn zak een zakmes, dat aan een gouden ketting
hing en waaraan zich ook een schaartje bevond en sneed een bericht uit
de Times uit.

Zorgvuldig stak hij het uitknipsel in zijn portefeuille. Daarop betaalde hij
de vertering en verliet met Charly Brand het café.

Op eenigen afstand daarvan bevond zich het natuurkundig museum en

hier ging hij binnen om naar hij beweerde, de schedels van eenige niet
meer bestaande diersoorten te bestudeeren.

Schijnbaar verdiepte hij zich in de beschouwing van verschillende

apenschedels uit het steenen tijdperk; hij maakte aanteekeningen en
begaf zich daarop naar de beide exemplaren van menschenschedels,
die uit het alleroudste tijdvak van het bestaan der wereld afstamden.

„Deze schedels hebben een merkwaardig model,” sprak hij tot Charly
Brand, die vol verbazing naar hem keek. „Als hier niet vermeld stond, dat
deze schedels afkomstig zijn van menschen, die voor ongeveer
twaalfduizend jaar hebben geleefd, dan zou ik bijna beweren, [2]dat het
schedels waren van Sumatra-apen die een jaar geleden gestorven zijn.”

„Je schijnt plotseling een groote voorliefde te hebben voor

schedelstudie,” sprak zijn vriend lachend, „ik begrijp niet, wat je daarmee
voorhebt.”

Een fijn lachje zweefde om de lippen van Raffles, toen hij antwoordde:

„Aan deze ledige schedels kan men meer leeren dan aan volle, want
deze laatste bevatten meestal nog minder dan de leege.”

„Wil je een philosoof worden?” vroeg Charly Brand, „ik vind het een
vervelende geschiedenis.”

„Mijn lieve Charly,” sprak Raffles, terwijl hij zijn vriend op den schouder
klopte, „heb je wel ooit opgemerkt, dat ik iets doe zonder bedoeling?”

„Neen, dat niet,” antwoordde Charly, „integendeel, ik vind, dat je te veel

met opzet handelt en je dwingt mij om altijd op mijn hoede te zijn, omdat
men nooit weet; wat je van plan bent.”

„Je moet je die zenuwachtigheid afwennen, beste vriend,” sprak Raffles.

„Kijk eens naar die voorhistorische schedels. Hoe liggen ze daar voor
ons in die glazen kast. Geen zweempje van zenuwachtigheid is er aan te
bespeuren. De zenuwen, die in deze schedelholte verborgen waren, zijn
verdwenen; zij hebben zich opgelost in andere elementen en niets is er
overgebleven dan de beenderen.”

„Wil je de rol van Hamlet bestudeeren?” vroeg Charly lachend.

„Dat niet,” antwoordde Raffles, „maar ik interesseer mij op het oogenblik
voor zielkunde. Hiertoe gaf mij een artikel in de Times aanleiding. Ik
wilde wel eens weten wat het gevolg is van krankzinnigheid, wanneer de
hersenen, het punt van uitgang onzer zenuwen, ziek worden.”

„En ben je daar nu achter?” vroeg Charly Brand vol belangstelling, terwijl
hij den grooten onbekende aankeek.

„Ik geloof het wel.”

„En dat is?”

„Een ledige schedel.”

Bij die woorden sloeg Raffles zijn boek met aanteekeningen over apen-
en menschenschedels dicht en verliet, vergezeld door zijn trouwen
vriend, het natuurkundig museum.

Toen beiden de Cromwellstraat doorliepen naar het South Kensington

station, haalde Raffles nogmaals het courantenbericht te voorschijn, las
het weer door en knikte tevreden.

Met de Londoner Rail (spoor) reden zij naar het Strand, naar het Charing
Cross station, en gingen van daar per rijtuig naar hun nieuwe woning
aan het Waterlooplein.

Het was een voornaam, oud-Engelsch huis, dat Raffles eenige maanden
geleden had gekocht en betrokken.

Zijn oude villa aan het Regentpark had hij verlaten, omdat deze te veel
bekend was geworden bij politie en andere belanghebbenden.

Den geheelen inboedel had hij naar Liverpool gezonden en vandaar,

nadat zij wekenlang in een meubelpakhuis had gestaan, onder een
vreemd adres naar Londen teruggestuurd. Dit had hij gedaan om de
politie om den tuin te leiden.
Maar hij was voorzichtig genoeg om het nu door hem bewoonde huis
van bijzondere inrichtingen te laten voorzien en het zou den detectives
van Scotland Yard, als deze hem mochten zoeken, de merkwaardigste
verrassingen bieden.

Het gebouw bood nog een groot voordeel aan, dat niet met geld te
betalen was. Er onderlangs liepen namelijk de telegraaf- en
telefoonkabels van verschillende groote banken en van het hoofdbureau
van politie. Dit maakte het terrein voor Raffles zeer waardevol.

Door een toeval had hij op een wandeling deze ontdekking gedaan, toen
werklieden voor het huis den grond hadden opgebroken om
herstellingen aan de kabels aan te brengen.

Voor een flinke fooi hadden ze hem zelfs de verschillende geleidingen

uitgelegd en hieraan had hij, [3]zonder dat de banken of het politiebureau
ervan wisten, geheime aansluitingen, welke waren aangebracht door
Charly Brand, die electrotechniek had bestudeerd. Raffles had in zijn
zoogenaamd laboratorium eenige toestellen, waarmee hij elk oogenblik
de gesprekken en berichten, die langs de verschillende lijnen gingen,
kon opvangen.

Aan het hek voor het huis was een groot bord aangebracht, waarop de
naam „Georg Jenning” te lezen stond.

Onder dien naam had Lord Lister het huis gekocht en stond hij in de
buurt bekend.

Als huisgenooten had hij slechts zijn ouden kamerdienaar en diens

vrouw, die voor alles zorgden.

Zijn studeerkamer had hij op dezelfde wijze ingericht als in zijn vroegere
woning. Het zware leeren behangsel met echte gobelins bedekte aan
den eenen kant een kostbare verzameling wapens, terwijl oude
familieportretten—Raffles was de laatste afstammeling uit het voorname
geslacht der Lord Listers—de andere muren versierden.
Slechts een enkele deur gaf, naar het scheen, toegang tot het vertrek,
maar in werkelijkheid waren er, door gobelins en lederen behangsel
verborgen, nog drie geheime deuren, die zoo kunstig waren
aangebracht, dat slechts het toeval ze zou kunnen verraden.

Een dezer deuren leidde naar de kleedkamer van den meesterdief, een
langwerpig vertrek met in den muur gebouwde kasten en een grooten
spiegel.

Hiervoor waren electrische lampen aangebracht, wier licht werd

verdubbeld door reflectors.

In deze kamer waren de meest verschillende costuums voorradig en

pruiken en baarden, welke Raffles voor zijn vermommingen noodig had.

Deze kunst oefende hij in het practische leven uit met de handigheid van
een acteur.

Hij kon elke gedaante, elken leeftijd voorstellen.

Naar deze kleedkamer ging hij nu, terwijl Charly Brand in de

studeerkamer wachtte en na een half uur kwam hij weer te voorschijn
met een geheel ander uiterlijk.

Hij maakte den indruk van een zeventigjarig man.

Iedereen moest hem voor een waardigen, ouden geleerde houden.

Zelfs de bril ontbrak niet op den neus.

Charly Brand kende de verkleedingsvaardigheid van zijn meester en

sprak:

„Wel, professor, waarheen leidt uw weg?”

Raffles overhandigde Charly nu het bericht uit de „Times” en sprak:

„Lees eens, welk interessants ik vanmorgen in de „Times” vond.”

En Charly Brand las het volgende:

„Een vreemde zaak houdt op het oogenblik de voorname Londensche

kringen bezig.— —

„De door zijn groote weldadigheid bekende millionnair John Gulden is op

verzoek van zijn zoon, James Gulden, gisteren naar het
zenuwlijdersgesticht van dr. E. Braddon gebracht.

„De oude bankier moet in den laatsten tijd herhaaldelijk sporen hebben
getoond van vervolgingswaanzin en heeft dingen bedreven, die deden
vreezen, dat hij zijn vermogen zou weggeven aan onwaardigen.

„Meermalen moet hij tegenover de bedienden de vrees hebben geuit,

dat zijn zoon hem wilde vergeven.

„Vrienden van den ouden bankier beweren, dat deze mededeelingen

berusten op kwaadaardigheid van den zoon, teneinde de millioenen van
den vader ongestoord in zijn bezit te krijgen.

„Dr. Braddon zelf deelde ons mede, dat de millionnair ongetwijfeld

lijdende is aan een zware zielsziekte en dat hij in zijn eigen belang in de
inrichting moest worden opgenomen”.

Charly Brand begreep niet, wat Raffles met dit bericht van plan was te
doen. Met een vragenden blik keek hij zijn vriend aan.

„Ik was reeds meermalen van plan mij bezig te houden met de geheimen
der Londensche krankzinnigengestichten”, [4]sprak Raffles, haar het
courantenuitknipsel wijzend.

„Er zijn onder de particuliere krankzinnigengestichten gevaarlijke

moordenaarsholen. Men kan daar iedereen, die tot last is, laten
verdwijnen, zonder dat iemand het recht heeft, politie noch regeering,
zich ermee te bemoeien. Ten minste als men geld genoeg bezit om
ervoor te betalen.
„Men mompelt omtrent dien mr. Braddon allerlei geheimzinnige dingen.

„Hij is, voor zoover ik te weten ben gekomen, een hartelooze zakenman,
voor wien geld een hoofdrol speelt in het leven, hoewel hij verschillende
eerebaantjes bekleedt in Londen en medelid is van allerlei
vereenigingen.

„In zijn inrichting heeft hij als doctoren alleen zijn beide zoons en een
zwager. Vreemde doctoren overschrijden nimmer den drempel er van.
Daardoor is het voor ieder, die daar is opgesloten, onmogelijk om iets
voor zijn bevrijding te doen. Nu wil ik beproeven, de geheimen van dat
huis te doorgronden en dr. Braddon met zijn beide zoons daarheen te
brengen, waar zij behooren—naar Old Bailey. Onze gele pers noemt
hem spottend: den koning der gekken.”

Charly Brand keek zijn meester verschrikt aan en sprak:

„Ben je misschien van plan om je in de inrichting van dr. Braddon te

begeven?”

Raffles lachte, stak een cigarette aan en sprak:

„Mijn lieve Charly, je weet, dat ik stalen zenuwen heb en dat er niet licht
iets kan gebeuren, dat mij vrees zou kunnen aanjagen. Maar”, Raffles
lachte weer en blies groote rookwolken in de lucht—„ik bedank er voor,
mij in dat roovershol te begeven, omdat het een nutteloos gevaar zou
zijn”.

„In hoeverre nutteloos?” vroeg Charly Brand weer.

„Och”, antwoordde Raffles—„het zou inderdaad doelloos zijn. Want,

gesteld, dat het mij gelukte om ongelukkigen te vinden, die op misdadige
wijze tegen hun wil daar worden vastgehouden en die even gezond van
geest zijn als jij en ik, dan zou ik ze op geen enkele wijze uit hun kerker
kunnen bevrijden.
„Ik zou duizendmaal kunnen bezweren, dat de ongelukkigen gezond en
slachtoffers van een misdaad waren. Dr. Braddon en zijn zoons zouden
het tegendeel beweren en hen voor volslagen krankzinnig verklaren.

„Zelfs de vlucht zou hen niet kunnen redden. Zoodra de politie of een
persoon, die er belang bij heeft, hun verblijfplaats ontdekte, zouden zij
weer binnen de muren van het gekkenhuis worden teruggebracht.”

„Dat is verschrikkelijk,” sprak Charly Brand, „dat is ontzettend! Iedere

moordenaar is er dan beter aan toe dan die rampzaligen.”

„Ongetwijfeld,” antwoordde Raffles op ernstigen toon, „iedere

tuchthuisboef krijgt zijn straf en zoodra deze achter den rug is, openen
zich de deuren van zijn cel en is hij een vrij man.

„Bovendien weet hij, waarom hij zich in het tuchthuis bevindt.

„Maar deze ongelukkigen zijn levenslang van hun vrijheid verstoken,

omdat zij de belangen van anderen in den weg staan. Denk eens,
Charly, wat het wil zeggen, voor altijd van de buitenwereld afgesloten te
zijn. De gezondste hersenen worden onder die omstandigheden
abnormaal.”

„Wat ben je van plan om met Dr. Braddon te doen?”

„Ik zal hem inspecteur Baxter in zijn inrichting zenden. Die moet
inlichtingen inwinnen. De verklaringen voor het gerecht van dezen
hooggeplaatsten ambtenaar omtrent dat, wat hij in de inrichting heeft
gezien en ondervonden, zullen voldoende zijn om Dr. Braddon, als hij
werkelijk een schurk is, den nek te breken.”

Charly Brand was opgesprongen en stond voor Raffles met een

uitdrukking op het gelaat, alsof zijn vriend Chineesch met hem sprak.

„Wie?” vroeg hij, „wien wil je naar Dr. Braddon zenden?”

„Inspecteur van politie Baxter,” antwoordde Raffles bedaard. [5]

„Men zal hem geen toegang tot de inrichting verstrekken,” antwoordde
Charly Brand.

„Niet als inspecteur van politie, wel echter als patiënt!”

Met nog grooter verbazing riep Charly Brand nu uit:

„Als wat? Als patiënt?—Als patiënt?—Sinds wanneer is de inspecteur

van politie Baxter ziek of krankzinnig?”

„Mijn beste Charly,” sprak Raffles lachend, „dat kan ik niet onderzoeken.

„Volgens mijn meening is inspecteur Baxter niet zoo gezond als jij
meent.

„Minstens zwakzinnig, daarvoor heb ik bewijzen genoeg. Maar alle

gekheid op een stokje. Baxter is een gezonde baas. Wees er echter van
verzekerd, dat er slechts één klasse van menschen bestaat, die niet
voor krankzinnig kan worden verklaard en dat zijn de heeren doctoren
der gekkenhuizen zelf. Alle anderen zijn in de oogen van deze koningen
onder de doctoren idioten”.

Charly Brand lachte hartelijk.

„Je kunt gelijk hebben, kerel. Ik ben alleen nieuwsgierig, of inspecteur

Baxter zich door jou als patiënt naar dr. Braddon laat brengen. Ik
betwijfel het zeer.”

„Heb je ooit opgemerkt, dat ik een of ander voornemen niet ten uitvoer
heb gebracht?”

„Neen, nooit!” verzekerde de jonge man oprecht.

„All right,” antwoordde Raffles, „ga nu met mij mee naar den koning der
gekken. Onderweg zal ik zeggen, wat je te doen hebt.”
[Inhoud]
TWEEDE HOOFDSTUK.
 RAFFLES BIJ DEN KONING DER GEKKEN.

De inrichting van dr. Braddon bevatte een groot complex van terreinen.
Aan de zijde der straat bevond zich een groot gebouw, waarbij
verschillende villa’s en woonhuizen behoorden. Men kon daaraan
duidelijk zien, dat de inrichting in den loop der jaren was uitgebreid.

Zoodra dr. Braddon meer patiënten had dan hij kon plaatsen, kocht hij
een huis aan, dat grensde aan zijn eigendommen en verbond het aan
zijn inrichting.

Een breede tuin grensde aan den anderen kant aan de gebouwen en
een vier meter hooge schutting met een ijzeren poort maakte het elken
voorbijganger onmogelijk, in den voortuin te komen.

Alle vensters waren van stevige traliën voorzien en inplaats van gewone
ruiten had men ondoorzichtig en onbreekbaar glas gebruikt.

Door de dikke vensters en muren drong geen enkele kreet van de

gevangenen tot de buitenwereld door.

Aan den achterkant van deze huizen grensde een klein park met hooge
muren, waarin de patiënten konden wandelen.

Als wilde dieren werden de ongelukkigen door gevoellooze oppassers

op hun wandelingen vergezeld en bewaakt.

Het kleine park was weer omringd door gebouwen, zoodat ontvluchten
tot de onmogelijkheden behoorde.

Op de étage gelijkvloers bevonden zich de ontvang- en consultkamers

van dr. Braddon en hieraan grensde zijn woning, die met vorstelijke
weelde was ingericht.
In een kleine, smaakvol ingerichte kamer zaten Raffles en Charly Brand
te wachten, tot dr. Braddon te spreken zou zijn. [6]

Een bediende in livrei stond bij de deur der ontvangkamer gereed om,
zoo noodig, oogenblikkelijk de wenschen der bezoekers ten uitvoer te
brengen.

Inderdaad echter was deze reusachtig gebouwde man een spion en

vertrouweling van dr. Braddon, om zoowel de gesprekken der bezoekers
te beluisteren, als om de eventueele vlucht van nieuwe patiënten te
verhinderen.

Een zilveren bel in de kamer van dr. Braddon weerklonk ten teeken, dat
de bediende de wachtenden kon binnenlaten.

Raffles en Charly Brand betraden de spreekkamer van dr. Braddon.

Met scherp onderzoekende blikken keek Raffles door het vertrek en naar
den persoon van dr. Braddon, die met een korten groet slechts even van
zijn stoel bij de schrijftafel opstond en met zijn vette hand vol ringen
Raffles en diens vriend uitnoodigde om naderbij te komen.

Een peper en zoutkleurige, eertijds zwarte baard omgaf het breede,

eenigszins opgezette gelaat van den „gekkenkoning”, zooals hem de
Londensche pers noemde.

Van onder dikke wenkbrauwen keken een paar zwarte, loerende oogen
Raffles aan. Dikke wallen omgaven die oogen, terwijl de neus veel te dik
was en koperkleurig.

„Die kerel drinkt,” sprak Raffles tot zichzelf, den dokter nauwkeurig
opnemende.

Een dunne haardos bedekte den glimmenden schedel. De gestalte van

den man was gedrongen en sterk en geleek op die van een spekslager.

Een tamelijk dikke buik belette hem zelfs om gemakkelijk te zitten.