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TOWARDS WISE
MANAGEMENT
Wisdom and Stupidity in
Strategic Decision-making
Towards Wise Management
Towards Wise
Management
Wisdom and Stupidity in Strategic
Decision-making
Tuomo Peltonen
School of Business
Aalto University
Helsinki, Finland
© The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer International
Publishing AG, part of Springer Nature 2019
This work is subject to copyright. All rights are solely and exclusively licensed by the Publisher, whether
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Preface
I first got the idea to write this book in the early 2010s. The outbreak of
the financial crisis had just surprised all economic experts. Soon, other
social and economic upheavals took place, and, again, experts and
decision-makers were unable to sense or anticipate the coming changes. I
also noticed a feature associated with many of the surprising turns: the
amazement and disbelief among the specialists turned soon into a project
of trying to find plausible explanations to what had happened.
I wanted to have a more detailed look at the managerial and organisa-
tional dynamics that would help to distinguish and evaluate the different
dimensions or spheres of decision-making in critical situations. This path
first led to a review of the long tradition of the theories of wisdom, as well
as looking for cases of strategic decision-making suitable for exploring
these themes, to provide specific examples for a more philosophically
attuned understanding of wisdom in managerial thinking. The general
objective of this book is to present and defend the role of philosophical
and intuitive wisdom in good management. Too often, these dimensions
remain sidelined in discussions of decision-making.
The main focus is on strategic decision-making, both in large compa-
nies and at the level of the nations and economies. Although the main
bulk of management and leadership scholars are affiliated with business
schools, it is also valid to try and discuss managerial wisdom in the context
of non-corporate sectors, including political and military d ecision-making
v
vi Preface
1 Introduction 1
vii
viii Contents
Index 209
List of Figures
ix
List of Tables
Table 2.1 Differences between the intuitive and the analytical approach
to information processing 33
Table 2.2 Obstacles to building wisdom at different levels 50
Table 3.1 Features of John F. Kennedy’s wise leadership during the
Cuban Missile Crisis 100
xi
1
Introduction
The Financial Crisis In 2008, the global financial system ended up in a seri-
ous crisis. As a consequence, there was a global economic recession, which
progressed from a bank crisis to the real economy and then to a government
debt crisis in Europe. Economists could not foresee this massive, systemic
crisis. Only a few marginal researchers (Foster & Magdoff, 2009) warned
about the instabilities of financial capitalism, but nobody took any notice.
The world’s leading organisations specialising in fiscal policy were com-
pletely unaware of the approaching problems. During 2005–2007, the
Chairman of the US Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke, repeatedly assured the
public that the housing market was stable (https://mises.org/library/ben-
bernanke-was-incredibly-uncannily-wrong). International Monetary Fund
(IMF) economists were blissfully unaware of the fragility of the financial
situation in Europe before the eruption of the euro crisis in 2010 (Blustein,
2015).
The Arab Spring In 2011, a series of uprisings shook the Arab countries.
Dictators were toppled in many places. In Syria, the uprising escalated
into a civil war, which in turn caused a massive influx of refugees into
Europe. The chaotic nature of the security situation in Arab countries,
together with the power vacuum in Iraq caused by the withdrawal of US
troops, contributed to the rise of Islamist movements such as Islamic
State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS). However, the sudden collapse of authori-
tarian regimes was a surprise to researchers studying Middle Eastern poli-
tics (Gause, 2011). Top-level academicians and analysts assumed that the
decades-long tenacious rule of dictators in the region implied that these
countries naturally reject democratic change. They could not even imag-
ine that this kind of long-term authoritarian regime could collapse in a
matter of months.
The Collapse of Nokia’s Mobile Phone Operations In 2007, Nokia was the
global market leader for mobile phones. It had a strong financial position,
and extensive financial and research resources. During the same year,
Apple launched the iPhone, which became the world’s most coveted
phone model in only a few years, thanks to its user-friendly design and
openness to various applications. Nokia did not initially consider the new
competing product to be a threat. When it became evident that a new
type of smartphone would be the product of the future in the mobile
phone market, Nokia aimed to develop its operations to strengthen the
software and applications in their phones, ultimately without much suc-
Introduction 3
cess in the matter (Ollila & Saukkomaa, 2013). The company sold its
mobile phone operations to Microsoft in 2011. Microsoft in turn let the
mobile phone operations take a turn for the worse in 2016. The collapse
of Nokia’s mobile phone operations is one of the most dramatic falloffs in
modern corporate history.
Brexit and Trump In 2016, there were two unexpected turns in politics.
The UK voted in favour of leaving the European Union (EU), and
Donald Trump was elected as the 45th US President. During both elec-
tions, the media and research institutions predicted the end result incor-
rectly. The traditional elite and the media sector were blind to the public
dissatisfaction with the current system. Social media played a big role as
a construer of reality. The voting behaviour of the people was a surprise,
and the election results turned out to be something that was previously
considered mostly impossible. Political experts were wrong.
recession that occurs during a normal economic cycle does not constitute
a breakdown of familiar structures, while a full-scale financial crisis with
banks declaring bankruptcy and foreign currency issues must be viewed
as a disruption of the established order.
On the other hand, upheavals breaking up the dominant structures
and order are not necessarily in every case (b) unpredictable, or outside of
the frame of reference for analysing the future, the so-called black swans
(Taleb, 2007). To begin with, let us consider digitalisation, which has
broken up traditional business structures and professional associations.
For example, the retail industry has recently had to re-examine the fun-
damental principles of its business model. On the other hand, the forms
of digitalisation—such as commerce moving into the digital world, and
the emergence of new communication methods and business operations
that are based on smartphone applications—have not been particularly
surprising. The direction of technological development has been rather
clear for about 5–10 years before the wider spread of new applications
within society and the economy. Another example could be the weaken-
ing dependency ratio of certain Western countries. It has also been known
for some time that without a radical increase in immigration or births,
the proportion of the elderly will rapidly expand in the 2020s in coun-
tries like Finland, causing pressure on the national economy (e.g. Rechel
et al., 2013). This change in the dependency ratio has been accepted in
the public consciousness.
The same distinction can also be outlined with the help of more estab-
lished concepts. Typically, literature on management distinguishes
between strategic and other, more operative decisions (Nutt & Wilson,
2010). Strategic decisions are associated with the general guidelines
related to long-term operations, with extensive impact on the other parts
of systems. On the other hand, operative decisions refer to solving
smaller-scale problems within a limited context. Here, we will be focus-
ing namely on strategic-level decision-making. It is also customary to
make a distinction between routine, repetitive decisions to which a for-
mulaic approach can be applied, and which can largely be mechanised
with analytical tools; and decisions made in changing, uncertain situa-
tions, which cannot be “programmed” but which need situational con-
templation and more extensive reflexive analysis than routine decisions
Introduction 5
small credit losses compared to the savings banks (Vihriälä, 1993) after
carefully entering new financial markets, and were able to grow into what
is now known as the OP-Group. On the other hand, in the early 1980s,
S-Group, a cooperative retailer, was on the brink of bankruptcy, but after
heavy cutbacks, the company managed to become profitable again
(Herranen, 2004; Lamberg & Tikkanen, 2006). With its leaner struc-
ture, it survived the deep recession of the early 1990s, and over the years,
it became a leading company in the field of food retailing. Both of these
cooperative companies share a combination of a modern business
approach with a more traditional societal mission, as well as the wisdom
culture stemming from the values of the cooperative movement. As
Tuominen, Jussila and Rantanen (2010) have noted in their study about
the management know-how of S-Group, an approach balancing the tra-
ditional rational skills and techniques of business management with
experience gained through learning and development visionary thinking
is essential in the group’s management culture. Both S-Group and
OP-Group have traditionally also had one foot in the regional units of
the counties, which has helped them keep a distance from the metropoli-
tan approaches and management methods. The ideational and regional
basis of the co-ops may have aided them to act wisely in critical moments.
On the other hand, not even these types of values can guarantee the con-
tinuation of sensible leadership as the circumstances change.
However, on a general level, it can be said that the recent turns in dif-
ferent fields indicate serious deficiencies regarding the anticipation of
change and sensible strategic decision-making. It is evident that the char-
acteristic phenomena of our time, such as the development of IT, the
breakthroughs in the media environment and an increased amount of
research-based knowledge, have not in all cases transformed into wise
leadership; instead, they have played their part in preventing the use of
the virtues of traditional contemplation and evaluation in challenging
decision-making situations. Wisdom requires an ability to reflect in an
unprejudiced manner and use various perspectives in managerial think-
ing. Likewise, good decisions require the ability to distance oneself from
immediate emotional reactions as well as imperceptible foregone conclu-
sions and ideological dogmas. Only the virtuous can be wise. But what
actually is wisdom?
Introduction 9
It could be assumed that the role models of spiritual quest and abso-
lute moral wisdom are specifically wise old men and women. It is only
with age and experience that a more mature form of sensible wisdom
can be achieved. In international politics, the group known as “The
Elders” has been influential for some time: the group consists of experi-
enced statesmen and diplomats who are no longer active in everyday
politics (http://www.theelders.org). Among others, the group includes
Jimmy Carter and Martti Ahtisaari, and it was originally convened by
Nelson Mandela. The purpose of this group is to act as an intermediary
in difficult conflicts, and to promote the implementation of human
rights around the world. The Elders organisation only includes ten peo-
ple. The group’s potential for promoting good intentions is based on a
combination of long experience, and the prestige of the members’ previ-
ous work, and the positioning of the group outside of traditional politi-
cal interest groups and nationalities. Also, business people with
experience in the corporate world could share their views, for example,
in a company management board or as coaches. Some offer their wis-
dom as consultants. Often, during crises or critical situations of change,
organisations need a more mature perspective, which almost always
requires previous experience from successes and failures in strategic
decision-making.
However, it cannot be claimed that only experience gained by age can
create wisdom. A mere career history of tackling challenging organisa-
tional events without any contemplation on the experiences, or learning
from the mistakes, successes and achievements, does not necessary lead to
wisdom. For example, a Finnish tyre maker, Nokian Renkaat continued
the production of enhanced test tyres in the 2000s (Pietiläinen &
Teittinen, 2016) despite another company, Continental, having previ-
ously been caught for adding features to test tyres that were different
from commercially available products (Mäkelä, 2005). Nokian Renkaat
was later caught for this deceit, and this led to a severe decline of the
company’s reputation. In addition to rational analyses, a higher-level syn-
thesis is necessary, which requires the contemplation of the significance
of previous events based on a wider frame of reference. This contempla-
tion highlights the evaluation of various goals, the revision of human
understanding and the conceptualisation of long-term cause and effect
Introduction 11
Platonic theoretical wisdom or sophia in the quest for a good and sensible
life, although he wanted to include phronesis with it: a wisdom applicable
in practical situations (Curnow, 2011). On the other hand, in his later
works, Plato moved towards a more practical perspective that takes action
into consideration (Klein, 1988). However, in wisdom literature, phronesis
has gained more of a foothold compared to the Platonic sophia (Trowbridge,
2011).
Another influential contribution to management science comes from
Mats Alvesson and Andre Spicer (2012). They launched the concept of
“functional stupidity”, with which they refer to a systematic culture or
context where stupidity becomes an acceptable approach in organisa-
tions. Alvesson and Spicer (2012; 1201) define functional stupidity as the
“inability and/or unwillingness to use cognitive and reflexive capacities to
other than a narrow or limited extent”. Stupidity is characterised by three
features: first, a stupid decision-maker is not able to question and criti-
cally analyse the premises of their own deductions. Managerial work is
not reflexive. Second, the stupid person would not know how to justify
their decisions and choices, particularly to their subordinates and the
wider public. The manager lacks the argumentative and communicative
skills. Third, functional stupidity is related to an instrumental limitation
to pre-determined objectives and technical knowledge. That is why man-
agers are unable to analyse situations from the perspective of a wider
impact or context.
Alvesson and Spicer’s stupidity-based theory leans heavily on the
thoughts of the Frankfurt School of Critical Theory (Held, 1980). The
overall aim of the Critical Theory is to liberate people from wrong aware-
ness and the straitjacket of instrumental rationality through social reform
and transformation. In this regard, the stupidity theory is similar to the
work of Plato, who emphasised the shallowness of popular opinion and
apparent knowledge compared to the depth of philosophical wisdom.
For example, in his widely used book on organisation theories, Morgan
(2006) has juxtaposed Plato’s allegory of the cave with sociological analy-
sis and surpassing of ideological distortions and limitations, largely in the
spirit of Critical Theory.
However, Alvesson and Spicer’s (2012) stupidity theory differs from
the Platonic-Socratic wisdom concept defended in this book. To begin
Introduction 19
with, their critique in itself does not deny the potential role of human
thinking and reasoning processes in the construction of sustainable wis-
dom. The main premise is that a wider reflexive and communicatively
rational sensibility has been imprisoned by various ideologies. In Plato’s
(1993) thinking, instead, the premise is an attempt to strive towards wis-
dom by first distancing oneself from all rationality based on human
observation and deduction—in a Socratic spirit. Both approaches strive
to search for a more sustainable basis for rationality than what can be
offered by the ideological trends of the day, but pinpoint wisdom to dif-
ferent objects: Plato to unchanging transcendental Forms (Truth, Beauty,
Justice), while Critical Theorists pinpoint it to the idea of an autono-
mous, self-sufficient subject, based on the ideas of the Enlightenment,
and particularly Kant’s philosophy (Scherer, 2011).
Second, Alvesson and Spicer (2012) focus more on the obstacles and
limitations of wisdom, rather than on the normative features of the
ideal state of wise governance. This approach also stems from the
Marxist philosophy of Critical Theory; the main object of interest is the
critique of instrumental rationality, as well as unreflexive and undemo-
cratic contemplation—not so much the utopian vision of the ideal
organisation or society (Paden, 2002). Although there are some aspects
in Plato’s (1993) thinking that focus on the features limiting and suf-
focating wisdom in the immanent culture, the undercurrent in his phi-
losophy is the assumption that people have an innate ability to become
connected to the sources of philosophical wisdom, the Platonic Forms
(Allen, 1959). This process reminds a kind of a spiritual or even reli-
gious conversion (Cooper, 2012; O’Meara, 2005), albeit one with a lot
of academic and practical work alongside with the contemplative search
for the truth. As the philosopher Pierre Hadot (1995) has stated, in the
ancient world, a philosophy similar to Plato’s was first and foremost a
“way of life”, a holistic practising of relevant philosophical and spiritual
exercises. On the other hand, Plato (1993) thought that after becoming
united with the domain of true knowledge, practitioners of wisdom
could be invited or requested to join the decision-making strata in soci-
eties and organisations, taking thus the position of the so-called
Philosopher-Kings.
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also, yet in its absence it is not likely that it kept either valuables
or money at Westminster. But side by side with the state office
was the household office of finance, the Wardrobe, and, though
the wardrobe office was itinerating with the king, it still kept a
“treasury” or storehouse at Westminster, and this, for the sake of
greater safety, had been placed for some years at least within
the precincts of the abbey. From the monastic point of view, it
was doubtless an inconvenience that nearness to the royal
dwelling compelled them to offer their premises for the royal
service. Accordingly, kings not infrequently made demands upon
the abbey to use its buildings. Thus the chapter house became a
frequent place for meetings of parliament, and at a later time it
was used and continued to be used till the nineteenth century, for
the storage of official records. In the same way Edward secured
the crypt underneath the chapter house as one of the
storehouses of his Wardrobe. When the crypt was first used for
this purpose I do not know, but records show us that it was
already in use in 1291, at which date it was newly paved. It was
not the only storehouse of the Wardrobe. There was another
“treasury of the wardrobe” in the Tower of London, but this was
mainly used for bulky articles, arms and armour, cloth, furs,
furniture, and the like. Most of what we should call treasure was
deposited in the Westminster crypt, and we are fortunate in
having still extant a list of the jewels preserved there in 1298, the
time when the court began to establish itself for its five years’
sojourn in the north. In 1303 jewels and plate were still the chief
treasures preserved there. Some money was there also, notably
a store of “gold florins of Florence,” the only gold coins currently
used in England at a time when the national mints limited
themselves to the coinage of silver. But I do not think there could
have been much money, for Edward’s needs were too pressing,
his financial policy too much from hand to mouth, for the crypt at
Westminster to be a hoard of coined money, like the famous
Prussian Kriegsschatz at Spandau, which, we now rejoice to
learn, is becoming rapidly depleted. Whatever its contents,
Edward estimated that their value was £100,000, a sum
equivalent to a year’s revenue of the English state in ordinary
times. Unluckily mediaeval statistics are largely mere guess-work.
But the amount of the guess at least suggests the feeling that
the value of the treasures stored in the crypt was very
considerable.
The crypt under the chapter house is one of the most
interesting portions of the abbey buildings at Westminster. It is
little known because it is not, I think, generally shown to visitors.
I am indebted to the kindness of my friend, Bishop Ryle, the
present dean, for an opportunity of making a special inspection of
it. It is delightfully complete, and delightfully unrestored. The chief
new thing about it seems the pavement, but the dean’s well-
informed verger told me that it was within living memory that this
pavement had replaced the flooring of 1291. Numerous windows
give a fair amount of light to the apartment; though the enormous
thickness of the walls, some thirteen feet, it was said, prevent the
light being very abundant, even on a bright day. The central
column, the lower part of the great pillar from which radiates the
high soaring vaults of the chapter house above, alone breaks the
present emptiness of the crypt. Considerable portions of the
column are cut away to form a series of neatly made recesses,
and there are recesses within these recesses, which suggest in
themselves careful devices for secreting valuables, for it would be
easy to conceal them by the simple expedient of inserting a
stone here and there where the masonry had been cut away, and
so suggesting to the unwary an unbroken column. I should not
like to say that these curious store-places already existed in
1303; but there is no reason why they should not. Certainly they
fit in admirably with the use of the crypt as a treasury.
One other point we must also remember about the
dispositions of this crypt. There is only one access to it, and that
is neither from the chapter house above nor from the adjacent
cloister, but from the church itself. A low, vaulted passage is
entered by a door at the south-east corner of the south transept
of the abbey, now for many centuries the special burial place for
poets, eminent and otherwise. This passage descends by a flight
of steep steps to the crypt itself, and the flight originally seems, I
am told—doubtless as another precaution against robbery—to
have been a broken one suggesting that a steep drop,
presumably spanned by a short ladder, further barred access to
the crypt. We must remember, too, that this sole access to the
treasury was within a few feet of the sacristy of the abbey. The
sacristy was the chapel to the south of the south transept, and
communicating with it where the sacrist kept the precious vessels
appropriated to the service of the altar. Altogether it looks as if
the crypt were originally intended as a storehouse for such
church treasure as the sacrist did not need for his immediate
purposes. From this use it was diverted, as we have seen, to the
keeping of the royal treasures. Nowadays the sacristy is called
the chapel of St. Faith and is used for purposes of private
devotion. We must not forget the close connexion in our period of
the sacristy and the crypt. The connexion becomes significant
when we remember that among Pudlicott’s monastic boon
companions at the palace-keeper’s lodge was the sacrist of the
abbey, Adam of Warfield.
Pudlicott had made up his mind to steal the king’s treasure.
The practical problem was how to get access to it. If we examine
the evidence collected at the enquiry, we find that there are two
discrepant accounts as to how the robber effected his purpose.
The one is warranted by the testimony of a large number of
sworn juries of reputable citizens of every ward in the city of
London, of burgesses of Westminster, and of the good men of
every hundred in the adjacent shires of Middlesex and Surrey. It
is—like much truthful evidence—rather vague, but its general
tendency is, while recognizing that Pudlicott is the prime offender,
to make various monks and palace officers his accomplices. Of
the latter category William of the Palace seems to have been the
most active, while of the many monks Adam Warfield the sacrist
was the most generally denounced. But the proved share of both
Adam and William was based largely on the discovery of stolen
property in their possession. The evidence of the juries suggests
theories as to how the crime may have been perpetrated; it does
not make the methods of the culprits clear and palpable. But it
suggests that masons and carpenters were called in, so that
some breaking in of the structure was attempted, and in particular
it suggests that the churchyard was the thoroughfare through
which the robbers removed their booty.
I. Note on Authorities.