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Dominik Möst · Steffi Schreiber ·
Andrea Herbst · Martin Jakob ·
Angelo Martino · Witold-Roger Poganietz
Editors
© The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s) 2021. This book is an open access publication.
Open Access This book is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International
License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribu-
tion and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original
author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license and indicate if changes were
made.
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unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the book’s Creative
Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted
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The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication
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The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book
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Foreword
v
vi Foreword
energy transition are known in principle, costs may change rapidly as seen for renew-
able energy during the last decade. Research and innovation will define the speed at
which the decarbonization can take place and at which costs.
Mathematical models have been one key tool, supporting energy policy for many
years and they are constantly improving often supported by projects like REFLEX.
Given the complexity of the problem, model coupling becomes an almost natural
approach, as there often is no one-size-fits all solution. This can also be observed
along the different chapters of this book, which touches subjects such as the dynamics
of technology development, the contribution of sector integration to flexibility and
design options for electricity markets. While seemingly distinct, these fundamental
building blocks and their interrelationships need to be understood in the context of the
energy transition. It is thanks to projects like REFLEX that we have gained decisive
and important insights into the interplay of sectors and economic actors and that our
respective methodologies keep improving.
vii
viii Acknowledgments
We are very grateful for the discussions and suggestions regarding our REFLEX
project results from participants and experts who participated in several REFLEX
workshops and the EMP-E conferences in Brussels.
Moreover, we would like to thank the team of the European Office of the Saxon
Local Authorities and the Saxony Liaison Office in Brussels for providing us several
times a meeting room with excellent equipment for our workshops, project and review
meetings with the European Commission.
A huge thank you goes to Claudia Hawke, who was the responsible project
manager at the European Project Center at the TU Dresden, for her tireless commit-
ment to the management of administrative tasks, the processing of funds and the
participation at various REFLEX events.
Finally, the editors of the book are very thankful to all authors for their engaged
efforts to make the book a success, even beyond the project duration.
Dominik Möst
On behalf of all editors
Contents
ix
x Contents
Dr. Martin Jakob, Dipl. Phys. Ing. ETH, is a Co-founder of and Managing
Partner at TEP Energy since 2008. Before that he was a Research Associate and
Project Manager at the engineering offices of Paul Widmer, at the Paul Scherrer
Institute (PSI), and at the Center for Energy Policy and Economics (CEPE) of the
ETH Zurich, Switzerland. He holds a doctorate from ETH Zurich in the economics
of energy efficiency. His main interest is to integrate technological, economic and
policy aspects in empirical, modeling, and implementation projects.
Prof. Dr. Dominik Möst is a Full Professor of Energy Economics at the Technische
Universität (TU) Dresden in Germany. From 2013 to 2018, he was Vice Dean of the
Faculty of Business and Economics at the TU Dresden. Before his time in Dresden, he
headed the research group “Energy System Analysis and Environment” at the Insti-
tute for Industrial Production at the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT-IIP), from
2004 to 2010. His research focus is on energy system analysis and market modeling,
energy market design, integration of renewable energies and energy efficiency.
xi
xii Editors and Contributors
Dr. Witold-Roger Poganietz is Head of the research unit “Energy” at the Insti-
tute for Technology Assessment and Systems Analysis (ITAS), Karlsruhe Insti-
tute of Technology (KIT) in Germany. Since 2015, he has also been Deputy Head
of the Focus Area “Energy Systems Analysis” at the KIT Centre Energy. His
main research interests are in socio-technological energy scenarios, and in the
sustainability assessment of technologies and energy systems.
Contributors
xv
xvi List of Figures
Fig. 7.7 Average system (left) and residual load (right) after DSM
optimization in summer and winter for EU-27 + CH +
NO + UK in 2020 and 2050 (Source Data based on model
results from eLOAD) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 131
Fig. 7.8 Maximum shiftable load in the countries of the EU-27 +
CH + NO + UK in 2050 (Source Data based on model
results from eLOAD) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 131
Fig. 8.1 Overview of the number of installed energy demand
devices, potentially available for DSM opreation (Source
Data based on survey results) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 146
Fig. 8.2 Country specific fitted S-curves for “smart readiness”
(Data source Fraunhofer ISI and TEP Energy) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 149
Fig. 9.1 Flexibility options categorized by type of flexibility
provision (Source Figure adapted and based on Michaelis
et al. [2017]) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 156
Fig. 9.2 Maximum time of interfere and shifting time of selected
load shifting applications compared to the pump storage
plant Goldisthal (Source Data according to Klobasa et al.
[2013], Gils [2014] and own assumptions) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 158
Fig. 9.3 Maximum time of interfere of selected load shedding
applications compared to a representative gas turbine
(Source Data according to Gils [2014] and own
assumptions) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 158
Fig. 9.4 Activation costs of DSM compared to a competing
flexibility option (Source Data according to Ladwig
[2018]) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 162
Fig. 9.5 Initialization costs of DSM compared to a competing
flexibility option (Source Data according to Ladwig
[2018]) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 163
Fig. 9.6 Total costs of load shedding compared to conventional
power plants as function of full load hours (Source
Ladwig 2018) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 164
Fig. 9.7 Total costs of load increase compared to RES curtailment
as function of full load hours (Source Ladwig 2018) . . . . . . . . . 164
Fig. 9.8 Total costs of load shifting compared to energy storages
as function of full load hours (Source Data according
to Ladwig [2018]) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 165
Fig. 9.9 Model input data regarding the capacity of RES
and conventional power plants (Source Data according
to Ladwig [2018]) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 166
Fig. 9.10 Change of full load hours due to DSM (Source Data
according to own calculations) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 168
Fig. 9.11 Change of the specific contribution margin due to DSM
(Source Data according to own calculations) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 169
List of Figures xix
Fig. 11.9 Mean yearly hours with no successful clearing of the day
ahead market, i.e., the maximum day ahead market price
of 3,000 EUR/MWh due to a shortage of dispatchable
generation and storage capacity. All values are averaged
over the years 2020 to 2050 and given in h/a. Across
all scenarios, the implementation of CRMs does
not only increase generation adequacy in the countries
using the CRMs, but also in their neighboring countries.
(Source own calculation) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 215
Fig. 12.1 Schematic illustration of the district heating supply
model—TIMES-Heat-EU (Source Own illustration) . . . . . . . . . 221
Fig. 12.2 Development of district heating demand in REFLEX
scenarios across all modeled countries (Source Data
according to model results from FORECAST) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 222
Fig. 12.3 Overall electric capacity of CHP plants in the REFLEX
scenarios across all modeled countries (Source Data
according to TIMES-Heat-EU model results) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 224
Fig. 12.4 Overall thermal capacity of heat-only plants (HOPs)
in the REFLEX scenarios across all modeled countries
(Source Data according to TIMES-Heat-EU model results) . . . 224
Fig. 12.5 Overall heat generation capacity of power-to-heat
technologies in the REFLEX scenarios across all modeled
countries (Source Data according to TIMES-Heat-EU
model results) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 225
Fig. 12.6 Heat flow out of thermal energy storage in the REFLEX
scenarios across all modeled countries (Source Data
according to TIMES-Heat-EU model results) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 226
Fig. 12.7 Average district heating generation costs in the REFLEX
scenarios for selected countries (Source Data according
to TIMES-Heat-EU model results) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 227
Fig. 12.8 Fuel input for DH generation in the REFLEX scenarios
across all modeled countries (Source Data according
to TIMES-Heat-EU model results) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 228
Fig. 12.9 Electricity generation of CHPs in the REFLEX scenarios
across all modeled countries (Source Data according
to TIMES-Heat-EU model results) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 228
Fig. 12.10 CO2 emissions from district heating generation
in the REFLEX scenarios across all modeled countries
(Source Data according to TIMES-Heat-EU model results) . . . 229
Fig. 12.11 Share of renewable energy in primary energy consumption
in the district heating generation sector as function
of bioenergy potentials in the High-RES centralized (left)
and High-RES decentralized scenario (right) (Source
Data according to own calculations) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 231
xxiv List of Figures
Title: La roue
Language: French
LA ROUE
« Plus on est de fous, plus on rit… »
MCMXIX
DU MÊME AUTEUR
POUR PARAITRE