@Risk Power & Utilities

User Group

Copyright JD Solomon Inc

JD Solomon, PE, CRE, CMRP, is the founder of JD Solomon, Inc,
a company focused on project development, asset management,
and facilitation solutions. His technical expertise includes
probabilistic analysis, root cause analysis, risk management, and
systems engineering. JD's past senior leadership roles include
Vice President at two Fortune 500 companies, Town Manager for
a unit of local government, and Chairman of a state environmental
rulemaking commission. JD is the author
of Communicating Reliability, Risk & Resiliency to Decision
Makers: How to Get your Boss’s Boss to
Understand and Facilitating with FINESSE: A Guide to Successful
Business Solutions.

JD SOLOMON
PE, CRE, CMRP·JD Solomon, Inc
Agenda

• Foundations

• Model Demonstration
• Ten Points

• Communicating to Senior Management

• The Big Finish!

Today’s presentation is aimed at the intermediate level

Copyright JD Solomon Inc
So, What Are We Talking About?

• 20-year forecast period (typical)

• Primary Components:
• Equipment List
• Replacement Values
• Remaining Useful Life
• Rebuild Frequency
• Rebuild Costs
• Output is Expected Yearly Costs

Financial Forecast, NOT a Failure Prediction Model

Copyright JD Solomon Inc
R&R Model Process
Asset
Repl.
Value Deterministic Probabilistic
Model Model
Asset Life
Cycle
R&R &
Asset Maintenance Sensitivity Probabilistic
Age/ Forecast Model Analyses Analyses
Condition Development

Asset • Key model sensitivities • Range of uncertainty in

Renewal • Validation of input ranges forecast
Freq. •Magnitude of variable • Probability of forecast
influence on model outcome
Main-
tenance

Copyright JD Solomon Inc

Model Output for R&R Schedule
R&R Schedule by Sub-Process & Asset Type

Copyright JD Solomon Inc

Model Output for R&R Schedule
R&R Funding Forecast by Sub-Process and Asset Type

Copyright JD Solomon Inc

Example: Master Plan Comparison

Master
Plan
Projection

Copyright JD Solomon Inc

Model Demo

Copyright JD Solomon Inc

Ten Points

Copyright JD Solomon Inc

JD’s Ten Points

1. Everyone Needs a 20-year Forecast

2. This is Not a Failure Prediction Model
3. Asset List and Asset Condition
4. Don’t Forget Replacement Asset Value
5. State Your Approach
6. Repair Strategies
7. Rebuild Arrival Times and Magnitudes
8. Point-Estimate Inputs or Probabilistic Inputs?
9. Variability is an expression of Risk
10. The Insights Gained Are More Important Than the Forecasts
Copyright JD Solomon Inc
Communicating to Senior Mgt.

Copyright JD Solomon Inc

Five Big Takeaways

It’s about the decision maker, not you!

Copyright JD Solomon Inc

Effective Communication Requires An Approach

TM
Frame
Illustrate
Noise Reduction

Effective Complexity &

Ethics
Communication Uncertainty

Synergy
Structure
Empathy

The FINESSE Fishbone Diagram

Copyright JD Solomon Inc

Frame the Problem with Influence Diagrams

Influence Diagrams Are a Good Practice When Using @Risk

Copyright JD Solomon Inc
Illustrate: The 6 Essential Graphics

1. Pictures
2. Geospatial Depictions
3. Time Series Charts (or Causal Factor Timelines)
4. Tables
5. Tornado Diagrams
6. Guiding Graphics

You only need one of each essential graphic

Copyright JD Solomon Inc
Noise Reduction

Sensory and Perceptual

Lay Public or General Population

Interpretive and Verbal

Attorneys and Policy Makers

Interpretive and Symbolic

Engineers, Scientists, Technologists

The Burden is on the Sender!

Copyright JD Solomon Inc
The Big Finish! houghts

Copyright JD Solomon Inc

JD’s Ten Points and the Model
1. Everyone Needs a 20-year Forecast
2. This is Not a Failure Prediction Model
3. Asset List and Asset Condition
4. Don’t Forget Replacement Asset Value
5. State Your Approach
6. Repair Strategies
7. Rebuild Arrival Times and Magnitudes
8. Point-Estimate Inputs or Probabilistic Inputs?
9. Variability is an expression of Risk
10. The Insights Gained Are More Important Than the Forecasts

Copyright JD Solomon Inc

Just Do It!

You cannot optimize the lifecycle value of your facilities if you do not know
what to expect over the life of the assets.

➢ Developing a life cycle forecast is the only way to do that.

You need a way to verify that your facility (system and assets) data is
accurate.

➢ Developing a life cycle forecast is the best way to do that.

Copyright JD Solomon Inc
Show Me the Money!

Start with a first-generation model.

It will not be perfect.

The insights gained will be more important that the forecast results.

Do Something. Do It As Well As You Can. Do Something.

Copyright JD Solomon Inc

We Use @Risk and DecisionTools

Consulting Communication & Facilitation

Copyright JD Solomon Inc

 Solutions

Learn more about @RISK Learn more about DTS

Survey and Request a Demo:

https://forms.gle/oRGrrW4SAPQmmXUm6

Copyright JD Solomon Inc

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