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PALGRAVE STUDIES IN
AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS
AND FOOD POLICY

Transforming
Food Systems for a
Rising India

Prabhu Pingali
Anaka Aiyar
Mathew Abraham
Andaleeb Rahman
Palgrave Studies in Agricultural Economics
and Food Policy

Series Editor
Christopher Barrett
Cornell University
Ithaca, NY, USA
Agricultural and food policy lies at the heart of many pressing societal issues
today and economic analysis occupies a privileged place in contemporary
policy debates. The global food price crises of 2008 and 2010 underscored
the mounting challenge of meeting rapidly increasing food demand in the
face of increasingly scarce land and water resources. The twin scourges of
poverty and hunger quickly resurfaced as high-level policy concerns, partly
because of food price riots and mounting insurgencies fomented by contesta-
tion over rural resources. Meanwhile, agriculture’s heavy footprint on ­natural
resources motivates heated environmental debates about climate change,
water and land use, biodiversity conservation and chemical pollution.
Agricultural technological change, especially associated with the introduc-
tion of genetically modified organisms, also introduces unprecedented ques-
tions surrounding intellectual property rights and consumer preferences
regarding credence (i.e., unobservable by consumers) characteristics. Similar
new agricultural commodity consumer behavior issues have emerged around
issues such as local foods, organic agriculture and fair trade, even motivating
broader social movements. Public health issues related to obesity, food safety,
and zoonotic diseases such as avian or swine flu also have roots deep in agri-
cultural and food policy. And agriculture has become inextricably linked to
energy policy through biofuels production. Meanwhile, the agricultural and
food economy is changing rapidly throughout the world, marked by contin-
ued consolidation at both farm production and retail distribution levels,
elongating value chains, expanding international trade, and growing reliance
on immigrant labor and information and communications technologies. In
summary, a vast range of topics of widespread popular and scholarly interest
revolve around agricultural and food policy and economics. The extensive list
of prospective authors, titles and topics offers a partial, illustrative listing.
Thus a series of topical volumes, featuring cutting-edge economic analysis by
leading scholars has considerable prospect for both attracting attention and
garnering sales. This series will feature leading global experts writing acces-
sible summaries of the best current economics and related research on topics
of widespread interest to both scholarly and lay audiences.

More information about this series at

http://www.palgrave.com/gp/series/14651
 Prabhu Pingali • Anaka Aiyar
Mathew Abraham • Andaleeb Rahman

Transforming Food
Systems for a Rising
India
Prabhu Pingali Anaka Aiyar
Tata-Cornell Institute for Agriculture Tata-Cornell Institute for Agriculture
and Nutrition and Nutrition
Cornell University Cornell University
Ithaca, NY, USA Ithaca, NY, USA

Mathew Abraham Andaleeb Rahman

Tata-Cornell Institute for Agriculture Tata-Cornell Institute for Agriculture
and Nutrition and Nutrition
Cornell University Cornell University
Ithaca, NY, USA Ithaca, NY, USA

Palgrave Studies in Agricultural Economics and Food Policy

ISBN 978-3-030-14408-1    ISBN 978-3-030-14409-8 (eBook)
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-14409-8

© The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s) 2019. This book is an open access
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 Foreword

India poses some of the greatest puzzles in the world for agricultural econ-
omists and food policy analysts. How does a country with some of the
most selective universities in the world, and home to some of the planet’s
most technologically advanced companies, nonetheless have an agriculture
sector still surprisingly dependent on smallholders practicing rain-fed cul-
tivation using decades- or centuries-old methods? How is it that some of
the world’s wealthiest families live among the largest number of under-
nourished people in the world? How can some of the most logistically
sophisticated supply chains in the world coexist alongside agricultural
input and output value chains that routinely fail poorer farmers? These and
similar juxtapositions make the food systems of India especially fascinating
and complex.
The study of India’s food systems is valuable not just for educational
purposes, however. The prospective human well-being impacts of solutions
to the various obstacles that impede India’s various food sub-systems hold
enormous promise. For the past several years, the Tata-Cornell Institute
for Agriculture and Nutrition (TCI), led by Professor Prabhu Pingali, has
been at the forefront of field-based, multi-disciplinary, rigorous scientific
research to unpack the complexity of India’s food systems and to identify
and evaluate prospective solutions. This volume shares with readers the
fruit of findings by TCI and its collaborators, along with what seem the
blueprints for many years’ efforts by them and dedicated others.
Professor Pingali and his co-authors, Drs. Anaka Aiyar, Mathew
Abraham and Andaleeb Rahman, use a Food Systems Approach (FSA) to
frame a fascinating exploration of the multiple mechanisms that leave a

v
vi FOREWORD

tragically large number of Indians malnourished. The integrative FSA lens

helps Pingali et al. weave together compelling evidence as to how a highly
successful agricultural research and extension system’s intense focus on
staple cereals—especially rice and wheat—has led over time to nutrient
imbalances in the food system that contribute to both obesity/overweight
and micronutrient (i.e., mineral and vitamin) deficiencies without fully
resolving the undernourishment challenge. They likewise explain how lag-
ging smallholder productivity growth interacts with poor sanitation and
lack of access to clean drinking water to compound the nutrient composi-
tion of India’s food systems and lead to widespread malnutrition amidst
plenty. They clearly explain how dramatic urbanization compels changing
institutions, structures and technologies in farming and in post-harvest
value chains, and how climate change is increasingly exerting similar pres-
sures. And social institutions and cultural customs, not least of which the
evolving roles women play in rural India, feature prominently throughout
the volume. At a time when the term “intersectionality” has grown popu-
lar in political discussions, Pingali et al. illustrate the concept’s power
when applied to the study of food systems in which biophysical, commer-
cial, cultural, demographic, economic and sociopolitical forces all intersect.
The diversity of experiences among India’s states—many the size of
independent nations elsewhere in the world in terms of both land mass
and population—mirrors what one observes within global regions such as
Latin America, Africa or Southeast Asia. Indeed, that immense diversity
poses a significant challenge to studying India; one always risks misleading
homogenization. The authors skillfully navigate between general descrip-
tions of national-level policies and phenomena and much more local,
state-level assessments of specific experiences. Pingali et al.’s diagnostic
assessment of appropriate goals and agendas for specific sub-national-scale
food systems avoids the sorts of vacuous statements that so often charac-
terize one-size-fits-all descriptions. Their analyses emphasize nuanced dif-
ferences among the vast nation’s sub-populations.
The careful analyses in this volume merit attention because the Indian
case is of global importance. Furthermore, the dramatic structural transfor-
mation India has been undergoing for the past half century offers instructive
lessons for the rest of the low- and middle-income world. Pingali et al.’s
systematic, FSA-based diagnostic method as well as their conclusions deserve
careful consideration by those working on similar challenges elsewhere in
the globe. The context of this book may be ­distinctively Indian, but many
of the challenges the authors describe and the prospective solutions they
advance are remarkably general.
 FOREWORD vii

It is a great pleasure to include Prabhu Pingali, Anaka Aiyar, Mathew

Abraham and Andaleeb Rahman’s outstanding book in the Palgrave
Studies in Agricultural Economics and Food Policy series. I recommend it
enthusiastically to all students of India, of the process of international
development, of food systems and human health and nutrition outcomes,
and of thoughtful, multidisciplinary research.

Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, USA Christopher B. Barrett

 Preface

Over the past several decades, India has witnessed consistently high eco-
nomic growth rates, often among the fastest in the developing world. The
country has made significant gains in reducing poverty levels, and its urban
middle class is projected to rise rapidly, both in terms of size and income
levels. Despite positive economic growth trends, the country continues to
struggle with malnutrition manifested in terms of high rates of child stunt-
ing and wasting that are substantially higher than other countries with
similar economic growth experience and at similar stages of structural
transformation. Even while India struggles to address the undernutrition
problem, emerging trends in overweight and obesity portend to a future
public health crisis in non-communicable diseases.
India’s food and agriculture policy have historically focused on enhanc-
ing supplies and access to staple grains, especially rice and wheat, and
thereby have had considerable success in reducing the incidence of hunger
in the country. While it is true that millions still suffer from hunger, imag-
ine what the situation would have been if the country did not invest in
productivity improvement for the major staples through the Green
Revolution. However, the laser focus on enhancing rice and wheat sup-
plies may have inadvertently resulted in the crowding out of the more
nutritious grains, such as millets and other coarse cereals, and pulses.
Staple-grain-focused policies may have also created disincentives for farm-
ers to diversify their production systems in response to rising market
demand for non-staple food, such as fruit, vegetables and livestock prod-
ucts. The imbalance in protein, vitamin and micronutrient supply in the
food system is a major cause of the high incidence of malnutrition in India.

ix
x PREFACE

Poor sanitation, lack of access to clean drinking water and low levels of
women’s empowerment are other proximate reasons for the persistence of
malnutrition in India.
This book provides a detailed assessment of the major paradoxes of the
Indian growth story, one in which we see the simultaneous existence of
regional inequality, rural and urban food insecurity, intractable malnutri-
tion problems and the growing incidence of overweight and obesity. We
examine the nexus of economic development, agricultural production and
nutrition through the lens of a “Food Systems Approach (FSA)”. Central
to our vision for a robust food system is a future where nutrition-secure
individuals have the capability and the opportunity to improve their health
through greater access to a balanced and healthy diet. In order to imple-
ment a holistic approach towards economic welfare and nutrition security,
we link the goals for agricultural development, health and nutrition and
economic development with each other. We bring together the latest data
and scientific evidence from the country to map out the current state of
food systems and nutrition outcomes. We place India within the context
of other developing country experiences and highlight India’s status as an
outlier in terms of the persistence of high level of stunting while following
the global trends in overweight and obesity. We discuss the policy and
institutional interventions needed for promoting a nutrition-sensitive
food system and the multi-sectoral strategies needed for simultaneously
addressing the chronic undernutrition and emerging over-nutrition prob-
lems in India.
This book is a major output of the Tata-Cornell Institute for Agriculture
and Nutrition (TCI) at Cornell University. It draws on and builds upon
the policy analysis and learnings at TCI during its first five years. TCI was
established with a generous gift given to Cornell University by the Tata
Trusts, a philanthropic branch of the Tata Group. The endowment was
made possible by the vision of Mr. Ratan Tata, the former chairman of
India’s Tata Group and a Cornell alumnus from the class of 1962. TCI is
a long-term research initiative focused on solving problems of poverty,
malnutrition and rural development in India. It is specifically focused on
understanding and addressing the malnutrition conundrum using a multi-­
sectoral and multi-disciplinary approach. TCI’s research and projects in
India consider the factors that influence both a household’s ability to
access food—such as income, employment and the ability to afford safe,
high-quality and diverse foods in sufficient quantities—and the individu-
al’s ability to absorb and utilize his or her share of the household’s total
 PREFACE xi

food/nutrient basket, which could differ depending on the individual’s

age, gender, level of empowerment, household dynamics, cultural prac-
tices or even physiological life stage (e.g., pregnancy and infancy require
different diets and care practices).
We are grateful to the TCI team for their support in bringing this book
together. We are particularly thankful to the TCI scholars for the stimulat-
ing discussions during the weekly research group meetings and to Bhaskar
Mittra, Jessica Ames, Kiera Crowley and Mary Catherine French for their
support, advice and assistance during various stages of writing the book.
We hope the research and policy prescriptions presented in this book
will be useful to food and agricultural policy analysts and nutrition and
development practitioners and policy makers. While the book is focused
on India, we believe the book’s takeaways are applicable to other develop-
ing countries facing similar persistence of malnutrition and the emerging
concerns of rising NCDs. We hope you enjoy reading the book.

Ithaca, NY, USA Prabhu Pingali

Anaka Aiyar
Mathew Abraham
Andaleeb Rahman

The original version of the book was revised: The Author biographies has been
updated.
 Author Biographies

Prabhu Pingali is Professor of Applied Economics and Founding Director

of the Tata-Cornell Institute for Agriculture and Nutrition (TCI) at Cornell
University.
Anaka Aiyar is Post-Doctoral Associate with the Tata-Cornell Institute for
Agriculture and Nutrition (TCI), Cornell University.
Mathew Abraham is Assistant Director of the Tata-Cornell Institute for
Agriculture and Nutrition (TCI), Cornell University.
Andaleeb Rahman is Post-Doctoral Associate at the Tata-Cornell Institute
for Agriculture and Nutrition (TCI), Cornell University.

xiii
 Contents

1 Indian Food Systems towards 2050: Challenges and

Opportunities  1

2 Economic Growth, Agriculture and Food Systems:

Explaining Regional Diversity 15

3 Rural Livelihood Challenges: Moving out of Agriculture 47

4 Diet Diversity and the Declining Importance of Staple

Grains 73

5 The Nutrition Transformation: From Undernutrition to

Obesity 93

6 Reimagining Safety Net Programs135

7 Enabling Smallholder Prosperity through

Commercialization and Diversification165

8 Linking Farms to Markets: Reducing Transaction Costs

and Enhancing Bargaining Power193

9 Agricultural Technology for Increasing Competitiveness

of Small Holders215

xv
xvi Contents

10 Managing Climate Change Risks in Food Systems241

11 The Way Forward: Food Systems for Enabling Rural

Prosperity and Nutrition Security277

References313

Index361
 Abbreviations

AEZ Agro-ecological Zones

APMC Agriculture Produce Marketing Committee
BNI Biological Nitrification Inhibition
CA Conservation Agriculture
CAGR Compounded Annual Growth Rate
CCT Conditional Cash Transfer
CF Contract Farming
CIMMYT International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center
CMERI Central Mechanical Engineering Research Institute
CPB Conventional Plant-Breeding
CSA Climate Smart Agriculture
DALYS Disability Adjusted Life Years
DBT Direct Benefit Transfer
FAO Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
FCI Food Corporation of India
FCP Food Chain Partnership
FDI Foreign Direct Investment
FFV Fresh Fruits and Vegetables
FPOs Farmer Producer Organizations
FPS Fair Price Shops
FSA Food Systems Approach
GDP Gross Domestic Product
GEAC Genetic Engineering Approval Committee
GHG Greenhouse Gases
GM Genetically Modified
GMO Genetically Modified Organism
GOI Government of India

xvii
xviii ABBREVIATIONS

GR Green Revolution
HIV Human Immunodeficiency Virus
HYV High-Yielding Varieties
IBSC Institutional Biosafety Committees
ICAR Indian Council of Agricultural Research
ICDS Integrated Child Development Scheme
ICEX Indian Commodity Exchange Limited
ICT Information and Communication Technologies
IDA Iron Deficiency Anemia
IRRI International Rice Research Institute
ISFM Integrated Soil Fertility Management
ITC Indian Tobacco Company
JLG Joint Liability Groups
KCC Kisan Credit Card
LGP Length of Growing Periods
LMIC Low- and Medium-Income Countries
MCX Multi Commodity Exchange
MDMS Mid-Day Meal Scheme
MGNREGA Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act
MNC Multi-National Companies
MSP Minimum Support Price
NABARD National Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development
NAFED National Agricultural Cooperative Marketing Federation
NBSS&LUP National Bureau of Soil Survey and Land Use Planning
NCD Non-communicable Disease
NCDEX National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange
NFHS National Family Health Survey
NFSA National Food Security Act
NHPS National Health Protection Scheme
NMCE National Multi-Commodity Exchange of India Ltd.
NSEL National Spot Exchange Limited
NSS National Sample Survey
PC Producer Companies
PDIL Projects and Development India Ltd.
PDS Public Distribution System
PMGSY Pradhan Mantri Gram Sadak Yojana
R&D Research and Development
R2R Rural to Rural
R2U Rural to Urban
ReMS Rashtriya eMarket Services Pvt. Ltd.
RSBY Rashtriya Swasthya Bima Yojana
SAU State Agricultural Universities
 ABBREVIATIONS xix

SDG Sustainable Development Goals

SEWA Self-Employed Women’s Association
SFAC Small Farmers’ Agribusiness Consortium
SPMRM Shyama Prasad Mukherji Rurban Mission
SSA Sub-Saharan Africa
ST Structural Transformation
U2R Urban to Rural
U2U Urban to Urban
UBI Universal Basic Income
UCX Universal Commodity Exchange
UIDAI Unique Identification Authority of India
UP Uttar Pradesh
USDA United States Department of Agriculture
VC Vertical Coordination
WTO World Trade Organization
 List of Figures

Fig. 1.1 The multi-sectoral approach for food system transformation 3

Fig. 2.1 International comparisons in GDP per capita (PPP in constant
2011 international $) 17
Fig. 2.2 Growth of urban areas 18
Fig. 2.3 Subnational structural transformation in India (1960–2017) 18
Fig. 2.4 Indian policy priorities over time 19
Fig. 2.5 Global comparison of agricultural employment share 20
Fig. 2.6 Migration patterns over time 22
Fig. 2.7 Agriculture wage differentials by state classifications 35
Fig. 2.8 Growing participation of women in agriculture 38
Fig. 3.1 Change in the agricultural workforce 50
Fig. 3.2 Labor share by state classification 51
Fig. 3.3 Nature of work: main and marginal workers (in %) 51
Fig. 4.1 Share of monthly expenditures on various food items 76
Fig. 4.2 Expenditure elasticity for food items by household class 77
Fig. 4.3 District-level association between share of expenditure on
non-cereals to cereals and poverty levels in rural India 78
Fig. 4.4 Projected share of urban population 81
Fig. 4.5 Wholesale Price Index (WPI) for food items 85
Fig. 5.1 Percentage point changes in the triple burden of malnutrition
in India 94
Fig. 5.2 International comparisons in the share of malnutrition
(2015–16)96
Fig. 5.3 Share of stunted children under 5 years (2015–16) 97
Fig. 5.4 Percentage change in the undernutrition in children under five
by state classification 98
Fig. 5.5 Percentage change in anemia prevalence by state classifications 98

xxi
xxii List of Figures

Fig. 5.6 Percentage change in obesity incidence by state classifications 100

Fig. 5.7 Relationship between the risk of diabetes and over-nutrition in
adults100
Fig. 5.8 Intra-household burden of undernutrition share by state
classifications102
Fig. 5.9 Intra-household burden of anemia by state classification 102
Fig. 5.10 Pathways to better nutrition 103
Fig. 5.11 Urban household dietary-spending patterns in India (2011–12) 106
Fig. 5.12 Relationship between diarrhea prevalence and lack of sanitation 115
Fig. 5.13 District-level association between urbanization and obesity 117
Fig. 6.1 Budget expenditures on major safety nets (in Rs. ’00 billion) 140
Fig. 6.2 Coverage and expansion of major social safety net programs 140
Fig. 7.1 Change in area under production (’000 hectares) of rice
between 1960s and 2000s 169
Fig. 7.2 Change in area under production (’000 hectares) of wheat
between 1960s and 2000s 169
Fig. 7.3 Change in area under production (’000 hectares) of pulses
between 1960s and 2000s 170
Fig. 7.4 Per capita availability of cereals, coarse grains and pulses in
India (1951–2015) 171
Fig. 7.5 Percentage of indebtedness of different landholding sizes from
different sources of credit (2014) 176
Fig. 7.6 Institutional credit to the agricultural sector (2000–01 to
2015–16)176
Fig. 8.1 Structure of agricultural markets 195
Fig. 8.2 Functioning of the electronic portal (ReMS model) in India 203
Fig. 9.1 Relationship between yield and area under irrigation in
selected crops in India (2015–16) 222
Fig. 9.2 Global variations in yield 223
Fig. 9.3 Yield trends in selected crops in India from 1950–51 to
2016–17225
Fig. 10.1 Temperature (degree Celsius) and rainfall (mm) change 243
Fig. 10.2 Pathways: Impact of climate change on food systems 245
Fig. 10.3 Share of CO2 (total) emissions by country in 2014 260
Fig. 10.4 Emission by sectors 261
Fig. 10.5 Overview of GHG emissions in India 262
 List of Tables

Table 2.1 Employment transition during structural transformation 21

Table 2.2 Classification of states 26
Table 2.3 Per capita growth over time 29
Table 2.4 Migration patterns over time 33
Table 6.1 Description of major safety net programs in India 139
Table 6.2 Targeting of PDS and MGNREGS (in %) 143
Table 7.1 Factors influencing costs at the farm level for commodities
and products 174
Table 7.2 Percentage share of agricultural loan (accounts and amounts)
and KCC in 2016 in various states/regions 177
Table 7.3 Changing share of private and public sectors in agricultural
inputs (1991–2009) 180
Table 8.1 Characteristics influencing the marketing of commodities and
high-­value products 197
Table 8.2 Coordination costs and effects at the firm level 202
Table 8.3 Cost and incentives of firm FPO linkages 207
Table 9.1 Classification of land degradation in India by regions (in
’000 hectares)219
Table 9.2 Stages of production and marketing and type and source of
information228
Table 10.1 Climate change impacts on yields in India 248
Table 10.2 Regional impacts of climate change between 1970 and 2014 257

xxiii
xxiv List of Tables

Table 11.1 Policies for enabling nutrition security and rural prosperity 279
Table 11.2 Policies for enabling diversification and commercialization of
farm systems 283
Table 11.3 Policies for reducing the triple burden of malnutrition 289
Table 11.4 Policies for creating economic opportunities for catch-up
growth296
 CHAPTER 1

Indian Food Systems towards 2050:

Challenges and Opportunities

1.1   Motivation
The Green Revolution in the 1970s followed by the liberalization of the
Indian economy in the 1990s has been credited with shepherding India onto
a path of high growth. Over the last decade, increases in per capita incomes,
greater urbanization rates, increase in literacy rates, population growth and
poverty reduction have characterized this high growth process. While agricul-
tural development has brought about income generating opportunities to
some in the farming sector, in a small farm dominant country like India, poor
infrastructure and a lack of institutional support have excluded many small-
holders from benefiting from the growth process. At the macro level, the
growth process has been highly inequitable, benefiting some states more than
others. At the consumer end, increases in income and income generating
opportunities continue to coexist with poverty and poor health outcomes.
The latter is reflected in the simultaneous prevalence of undernourishment,
over-nutrition and micronutrient deficiencies in the country. These conun-
drums reflect the major paradoxes of the Indian growth story, where we see
the simultaneous existence of regional inequality, rural and urban food inse-
curity and the growing incidence of a triple burden of malnutrition.
Aside from tackling these challenges, looking ahead to 2050 and
beyond, we see important trends of unequal growth and climate change
challenges threatening India’s ability to sustainably and equitably manage
an economic and nutrition transformation. Current regional inequality in

© The Author(s) 2019 1

P. Pingali et al., Transforming Food Systems for a Rising India,
Palgrave Studies in Agricultural Economics and Food Policy,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-14409-8_1
2 P. PINGALI ET AL.

economic development is a major challenge due to differences in initial

resource endowments and nationalized policies that has placed states on
different structural transformation pathways. Some states today resemble
poor countries in sub-Saharan Africa, while rapidly developing states
resemble counterparts in Latin America. Continuing down this policy
pathway will have negative implications, for both national political stability
and economic development as we look ahead. Boosting agricultural pro-
ductivity is critical for economic growth and development in India.
Agricultural production, however, affects and is affected by climate
change. Productivity growth influenced by increasing demand for higher
value agricultural produce will lead to increased greenhouse gas emissions
and water and soil degradation, accentuating production risks in agricul-
ture. Through its negative impact on food availability, access, nutrition
and affordability, climate change will reduce the effectiveness of policies
aimed at increasing food and nutrition security for the future. Feeding a
growing population that is both richer and more urban has significant
implications for future food systems. Linking urban food demand with
rural prosperity, while ensuring environmental sustainability will be essen-
tial to ensure both urban and rural food security.

1.2   Approach
Much of the prior literature has reflected on the importance of either the
development of the agricultural sector, the role of economic growth or the
importance of food security for ensuring greater and more equitable eco-
nomic development. Even works that look at the intersection of these
groups focus only on increasing production as a means to increase eco-
nomic growth or focus on managing consumption as a means for improv-
ing health and productivity. They do not evaluate the intersectionality of
these domains and their spillovers on the economic, ecological or health
systems within the country. Thus, we see the existence of policies that
increase productivity in agriculture at the expense of the environment,
policies that increase economic growth while also increasing regional
inequality and hurting small farmers, and top-down policies that aim to
reduce undernutrition without any discussion on how to tackle growing
obesity. These policy recommendations remain palliative at best, often
treating the symptoms but not the core problems in the economy. Most of
these approaches have also not considered the implications of the chang-
ing economic, demographic and climatic landscape of the future.
 INDIAN FOOD SYSTEMS TOWARDS 2050: CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES 3

With a view to address the current challenges in the Indian development

paradox and in light of the future challenges faced by the country, this book
looks at the nexus of economic development, agricultural production and
nutrition through the lens of a “food systems approach (FSA)”. A tradi-
tional FSA looks for opportunities to strengthen the linkages between agri-
cultural production and consumption with the aim to strengthen nutrition
access for individuals and households. The motivation of our FSA model is
to expand both opportunities to strengthen nutrition access and to enhance
capabilities of individuals so that they can access new opportunities in ways
to increase their welfare. Creation of new opportunities and capabilities for
increasing farm production and productivity, reducing malnutrition and
improving labor productivity and facilitating greater structural transforma-
tion that is also inequality reducing are the main goals of the approach.
In order to implement a holistic approach towards welfare development
and nutrition security, we link the goals for agricultural development, health
and nutrition and economic development with each other (Fig. 1.1). We
bring together the latest data and scientific evidence from the country to map
out the current state of food systems. In this book we (1) highlight the nature
of food system challenges in India, (2) provide goals and set a food systems

Fig. 1.1 The multi-sectoral approach for food system transformation

4 P. PINGALI ET AL.

agenda for the future for different subnational units in India based on their
current structural transformation experience and (3) emphasize policy and
institutional interventions that are needed to address these challenges.
The book will be organized along the lines of the food systems frame-
work provided in Fig. 1.1. We first dive into the question about who the
new rural and urban consumer of the future would be. We identify their
dietary needs and preferences, health challenges and how consumer mar-
kets would evolve to meet these changing requirements. We then take a
deep dive into challenges for farming in India. We study the farmer, their
input usage patterns, institutional challenges in adopting new farming
practices and challenges in accessing markets to sell non-staple agricultural
products. We highlight issues of access that fall out of intra-household
inequalities or social institutions that affect nutrition access. We then travel
along the agricultural supply chain and identify the transaction costs and
bottlenecks that have prevented a free flow of foods from the farm to the
plate. We also identify institutional failures that have prevented market
signals from transforming the agricultural landscape away from staple
grain production in the country. We identify the challenges for imple-
menting acceptable food quality and food safety standards. Side by side
with these insights, we also provide data and evidence on the current food
systems challenges from external forces such as the overuse of the environ-
ment and the projections from climate change. We study the role of
research and development, new technologies, subnational unit-focused
policy and the growth of the knowledge and digital economy in mitigating
these production and price risks. The book not only aims to inform policy
makers on proper actions and respective consequences for future food
systems, it also provides researchers new and exciting avenues to conduct
research on nutrition security. Additionally, by providing a fresh and holis-
tic perspective on the challenges for the future, and an overview of the
policies that are available towards ensuring greater food security, this work
aims to increase citizen awareness and engagement in developing food
systems of the future.

1.3   Key Takeaways from the Book

1. The differential growth experience of Indian states can be explained by
their initial investments in agricultural productivity growth and their
subsequent focus on robust non-agricultural employment growth. (Chap. 2)
 INDIAN FOOD SYSTEMS TOWARDS 2050: CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES 5

While India’s overall GDP growth rate has been consistently high for
the past few decades, there are significant inter-state disparities in growth
performance. In Chap. 2, we compare Indian states with countries, in
terms of the per capita GDP, and we find that some of the poorest states
in India have per capita GDP levels that are comparable to some of the
poorest countries in sub-Saharan Africa. On the other hand, the most
progressive states in India have per capita GDP levels that are comparable
to the emerging economies of Southeast Asia and Latin America. These
stark differences in the regional growth experience are also reflected in
other indicators such as nutrition or poverty. For example, undernutrition
in Madhya Pradesh continues to remain a key nutrition challenge, but in
Kerala, rising obesity has brought the problem of over-nutrition into
focus. Similarly, while rural poverty in Punjab has reduced due to agricul-
tural development, in Orissa, low agricultural productivity and the lack of
alternate employment opportunities has resulted in high rural poverty lev-
els. Indian states have also experienced different levels of structural trans-
formation; less than 20% of the population remains in agriculture in the
high-income states, while that figure is over 40% in the lagging states.
Based on their overall economic performance, in Chap. 2, we group
Indian states into three categories—agriculture-led states, urbanizing
states and lagging states—and attempt to explain their growth performance
over the past 60 years. The categories are based on three outcomes of
economic development; these are state GDP per capita, the share of agri-
culture in GDP and urbanization rate. Both in the agriculture-led states
and urbanizing states, agricultural growth, kickstarted by the Green
Revolution, played a crucial role in catalyzing economic growth. However,
states such as Punjab and Andhra Pradesh continue to focus on agriculture
with a concentration on staple grain production and consequently have
seen a slowdown in their prospects for further income growth. On the
other hand, urbanizing states such as Gujarat and Maharashtra started
with investments in agriculture as an engine of growth but then reinvested
their agricultural incomes in developing vibrant industrial and commercial
­sectors. Lagging states such as Bihar and Odisha were bypassed by the
Green Revolution due to poor agro-climatic and infrastructural constraints
and continue to be on a low growth trajectory. Prospects for future growth
in the lagging states are still linked to agriculture, but perhaps in looking
beyond staple grains, and towards meeting the rising demand for food
diversity elsewhere in the country by enhancing the productivity of coarse
cereals, pulses and high-value crops and livestock.
6 P. PINGALI ET AL.

2. Meeting the growing urban demand for food and other agricultural
products and non-farm employment provides new growth opportunities
for rural economies; the challenge is to ensure that it is inclusive of the
poor. (Chap. 3)

As India grows through a rapid process of urbanization, both with the

expansion of the mega-cities as well as the smaller cities and district towns,
the food policy challenge will increasingly become one of sustainably feed-
ing the cities. Provisioning the cities is the new growth opportunity for
rural areas and could lead to accelerated rural transformation. Through
organized upstream and downstream network of activities, the urban fac-
ing agribusiness, value chains could absorb surplus agricultural labor and
provide them with jobs, especially for the youth and women. Employment
in logistics, like aggregation, storage, processing and so on, at the agri-
business upstream and food-related services such as restaurants at the
downstream could potentially be leveraged as the channel of employment
generation.
Such inclusive transformation of rural spaces—by including those
who are left out regarding access to non-farm employment—is essen-
tial to remove rural poverty. One of the channels for propelling stagnant
agricultural growth is to strengthen the rural-urban continuum which
provides ample opportunities to the small farmers and other rural popula-
tion with greater opportunities to share in the fruits of urban economic
growth. Indian policies have not focused on the small towns and the mid-
dle spaces to create job opportunities. Recognizing these newer urban
settlements and then providing them with urban amenities could be a
springboard for non-farm diversification. The benefits of local economies
can be realized through the creation of urban-rural clusters that supply
goods and services both for consumption and for agricultural production
in households. While urbanization and changing employment patterns
offer opportunities for a more diversified food system, the challenge lies in
ensuring these transformations are smooth and contribute to sustainable
poverty reduction.

3. Diet transition and the rising demand for food diversity is not matched
with a commensurate rise in the supply of non-staple foods leading to
poor access to more nutritious food. (Chap. 4)
 INDIAN FOOD SYSTEMS TOWARDS 2050: CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES 7

Diet transition is an important outcome of the structural transformation

process. Chapter 4 discusses the two stages of dietary transition with struc-
tural transformation. In the first stage, economic growth and rise in per
capita income induce diet diversification. Consumer preferences move
away from quantity to quality, substituting traditional staples with non-­
staples, such as fruit, vegetables and livestock products. In the second stage,
the effects of globalization of the economy are reflected in an increase in
the consumption of processed food which are rich in proteins, sugars and
fats. This diet transition in India is increasingly evident. Chapter 4 provides
data on the diet transition in India, specifically the declining share of staple
grains—rice and wheat—in household diets across all income groups in
urban as well as rural populations, though the degree of transition varies
considerably. At the same time, we observe the rise in the diversity of food
groups consumed, such as fruit, vegetables and livestock products.
However, it is clear that access to food diversity is not equitable and that
the poor are significantly disadvantaged in this regard.
With a clear shift away from cereals, it is important to ensure other
nutritive food items are available at affordable prices. It is clear, however,
that the supply of non-staple foods has not matched the rising demand as
manifested in the rising and volatile relative prices of these foods. Without
access to nutritive substitutes, dietary diversity would suffer. Protein-rich
items such as pulses and animal-based protein items have seen an increase
in the prices as well as its volatility, primarily driven by greater demand for
these products. Similarly, the highly seasonal supply of fruits and vegeta-
bles and lack of storage infrastructure to smoothen prices makes access to
nutritious food at affordable prices a challenge for consumers, especially
the poor. At the same time, access to processed foods has increased signifi-
cantly, even in rural areas, and often at prices that are substantially below
those of more nutritious fresh food and pulses. Chapter 5 provides data
that shows that India may be tripping into a rising over-nutrition and obe-
sity problem, even as it tries to solve the undernutrition problem, due to
poor access and affordability of nutrition-rich diets.

4. While progress is being made on undernutrition, the emerging nutri-

tion transition towards over-nutrition and the rising incidence of non-­
communicable diseases requires a move away from policies that promote
calorie sufficiency to ones that promote food system diversity. (Chap. 5)
8 P. PINGALI ET AL.

Similar to the experience of other countries that have undergone greater

structural transformation, India has made progress towards reducing hun-
ger and reducing undernutrition while witnessing significant economic
growth. Over the last three decades, the country has managed to reduce
undernutrition by at least ten percentage points across all individual
groups. On the other hand, obesity and NCD rates are rising among
urban and rural populations, albeit at a slower rate in the latter. Chapter 5
argues that increased dietary diversity is associated with lower prevalence
of hidden hunger and higher nutrient adequacy ratios for individuals. It
also presents the case that the lack of diet diversity and excessive carbohy-
drates and sugar consumption is associated with higher risk of obe-
sity and NCDs.
Given this close relationship between dietary diversity of households
and nutrition outcomes, ensuring that households can access diverse foods
requires interventions at two levels. First is to ensure that there is greater
availability of food diversity within the local system. The second set of
interventions would need to improve the affordability of these diets.
Effective food policy, hence, becomes tantamount to a nutrition sensitive
food system which enables transition towards a healthier diet. Policy
debates around food security in India have mainly focused upon ensuring
adequate access to calories through a continued focus on staple grain pro-
duction. However, trends around dietary changes and nutrition transition
provide a compelling case for questioning the existing paradigm and open
up conversations around access to a good quality and balanced diet. Focus
on staples has affected incentives to develop markets for non-staples, thus
affecting their supply and increasing price uncertainty. Creating new
opportunities for the food system diversification, to cater to changing con-
sumer demand, should thus become a focus for policy makers. Chapter 5
also presents the multi-sectoral pathways towards improved nutrition out-
comes, such as access to clean drinking water and sanitation, gender
empowerment and behavior change and so on.

5. The objectives and design of India’s safety net programs, whether food
or cash based, need to evolve with economic growth and the changing
nutritional needs of the marginalized populations. (Chap. 6)

Safety nets have been an essential part of the poverty reduction policies
in India by contributing to risk management and reducing vulnerability
for a large section of the population. Chapter 6 argues for the future role
Another random document with
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orders. Happily, the “Motherly Countenance” was not moved to
wrath, and “the divine condescension was manifested.” “If the coffins
can be moved, move them,” she said; “but so long as they are not in
the main room, I do not greatly mind their remaining.” They were all
removed, however, and the Old Buddha was protected from possibly
evil influences.
On the 8th September, at Hsin Chou, three Imperial (yellow) chairs
had been provided by the local officials, so that their Majesties’
entrance into T’ai-yüan fu, on the 10th, was not unimposing. The
Court took up its residence in the Governor’s Yamên (that same
bloodstained building in which, six weeks before, Yü Hsien had
massacred the missionaries). Yü Hsien, the Governor, met their
Imperial Majesties outside the city walls, and knelt by the roadside
as the Old Buddha’s palanquin came up. She bade her bearers stop,
and called to him to approach. When he had done so, she said: “At
your farewell audience, in the last Moon of the last year, you assured
me that the Boxers were really invulnerable. Alas! You were wrong,
and now Peking has fallen! But you did splendidly in carrying out my
orders and in ridding Shansi of the whole brood of foreign devils.
Everyone speaks well of you for this, and I know, besides, how high
is your reputation for good and honest work. Nevertheless, and
because the foreign devils are loudly calling for vengeance upon
you, I may have to dismiss you from office, as I had to do with Li
Ping-heng: but be not disturbed in mind, for, if I do this, it is only to
throw dust in the eyes of the barbarians, for our own ends. We must
just bide our time, and hope for better days.”
Yü Hsien kowtowed, as in duty bound, nine times, and replied:
“Your Majesty’s slave caught them as in a net, and allowed neither
chicken nor dog to escape: yet am I ready to accept punishment and
dismissal from my post. As to the Boxers, they have been defeated
because they failed to abide by the laws of the Order, and because
they killed and plundered innocent people who were not Christians.”
This conversation was clearly heard by several bystanders, one of
whom reported it in a letter to Shanghai. When Yü Hsien had
finished speaking, the Old Buddha sighed, and told her bearers to
proceed. A few days later she issued the first of the Expiatory
Decrees by which Yü Hsien and other Boxer leaders were dismissed
from office, but not before she had visited the courtyard where the
hapless missionaries had met their fate, and cross-examined Yü
Hsien on every detail of that butchery. And it is recorded, that, while
she listened eagerly to this tale of unspeakable cowardice and
cruelty, the Heir Apparent was swaggering noisily up and down the
courtyard, brandishing the huge sword given him by Yü Hsien, with
which his devil’s work had been done. No better example could be
cited of this remarkable woman’s primitive instincts and elemental
passion of vindictiveness.
Once more, during the Court’s residence at T’ai-yüan, did the Old
Buddha and Yü Hsien meet. At this audience, realising the
determination of the foreigners to exact the death penalty in this
case, and realising also the Governor’s popularity with the
inhabitants of T’ai-yüan, she told him, with unmistakable
significance, that the price of coffins was rising, a plain but
euphemistic hint that he would do well to commit suicide before a
worse fate overtook him.
Her Majesty was much gratified at the splendid accommodation
provided for her at T’ai-yüan, and particularly pleased to see all the
gold and silver vessels and utensils that had been made in 1775 for
Ch’ien Lung’s progress to the sacred shrines of Wu-T’ai shan; they
had been polished up for the occasion and made a brave show, so
that the “Benevolent Countenance” beamed with delight. “We have
nothing like this in Peking,” she said.
Marble Bridge in the Grounds of the Lake Palace.

Photo, Betines, Peking.

In the Grounds of the Palace in the Western Park.

Photo, Betines, Peking.

 Jung Lu joined the Court on the day after its arrival at T’ai-yüan,
and was most affectionately welcomed by the Old Buddha, to whom
he gave a full account of his journey through Chihli and of the
widespread devastation wrought by the Boxers. He had previously
sent in the following Memorial which clearly reflects those qualities
which had endeared him to his Imperial Mistress, and which so
honourably distinguished him from the sycophants and classical
imbeciles of the Court:—

“At dawn, on the 21st day of the 7th Moon (15th August)
your Majesty’s servant proceeded to the Gate of Reverend
Peace (inside the Palace), and learned that your Majesties’
sacred chariot had left for the West. While there I came
across Ch’ung Ch’i,[106] the President of the Board of
Revenue, and we were proposing to hurry after your
Majesties, when we learned that the North-Eastern and
Northern Gates of the city had fallen. So we left Peking by
another gate, my first object being to try and rally some of the
troops. But after several conferences with Generals Sung
Ch’ing and Tung Fu-hsiang, I was forced to the conclusion
that our repeated defeats had been too severe, and that, in
the absence of large reinforcements, there was no hope of
our being able to take the field again. Our men were in a state
of complete panic and had lost all stomach for fighting. I
therefore left and came on to Pao-t’ing fu, and lodged there
with Ch’ung Ch’i in the “Water Lily” Garden. All night long he
and I discussed the situation, hoping to see some way out of
the misfortunes which had overtaken the State. Ch’ung Ch’i
could not conceal the bitterness of his grief, and on the
morning of the next day he hanged himself in one of the outer
courtyards, leaving a letter for me in which was enclosed his
valedictory Memorial to your Majesties, together with a set of
verses written just before his death. These I now forward for
your Majesty’s gracious perusal, because I feel that his
suicide deserves your pity, just as his high sense of duty
merits your praise. He was indeed a man of the purest
integrity, and had all the will, though, alas, not the power, to
 avert the misfortunes which have befallen us. He had always
looked upon the magic arts of the Boxers with profound
contempt, unworthy even of the effort of a smile from a wise
man. At this critical juncture, the loss of my trusted colleague
is indeed a heavy blow, but I am compelled to remember that
the position which I hold, all unworthily, as your Majesty’s
Commander-in-Chief, necessitates my bearing the burden of
my heavy responsibilities so long as the breath of life is in my
body.
“Such makeshift arrangements as were feasible I made for
the temporary disposal of Ch’ung Ch’i’s remains, and I now
forward the present Memorial by special courier to your
Majesty, informing you of the manner of his decease, because
I hold it to be unfitting that his end should pass unnoticed and
unhonoured. Your Majesty will, no doubt, determine on the
posthumous honours to be accorded to him.
“It is now my intention to proceed, with what speed I may, to
T’ai-yüan fu, there to pay my reverent duty to your Majesty
and to await the punishment due for my failure to avert these
calamities.”

In reply to this Memorial, Tzŭ Hsi conferred high posthumous

honours upon Ch’ung Ch’i, praising his loyalty and honesty.
Jung Lu proceeded on his journey, but at a town on the Chihli
border his wife took ill and died. She had only joined him at Pao-t’ing
fu. The Old Buddha welcomed him with sincere affection upon his
arrival at T’ai-yüan and raised his secondary wife, the Lady Liu, to
the rank of “Fu Jen” or legitimate consort. (This lady had always had
great influence with the Empress Dowager, which increased during
the exile of the Court, and became most noticeable after the return to
Peking.)
Tzŭ Hsi asked Jung Lu for his advice as to her future policy.
Bluntly, as was his wont, he replied “Old Buddha, there is only one
way. You must behead Prince Tuan and all the rest of the Princes
and Ministers who misled you and then you must return to Peking.”
 An incident, vouched for by a high Manchu official attached to the
Court, illustrates the relations at this time existing between the
Emperor, the Empress Dowager, and Jung Lu. When the latter
reached T’ai-yüan fu, Kuang-Hsü sent a special messenger to
summon him. “I am glad you have come at last,” said His Majesty. “I
desire that you will have Prince Tuan executed without delay.”
“How can I do so without the Empress Dowager’s orders?” he
replied. “The days are past when no other Decree but your Majesty’s
was needed.”[107]
Jung Lu’s position, but for the high favour of the Empress
Dowager, would have been full of danger, for he was disliked by
reactionaries and reformers alike; surrounded by extremists, his
intuitive common sense, his doctrine of the “happy mean” had made
him many enemies. Nor could he lay claim to a reputation for that
“purest integrity” which he had so greatly admired in his colleague
Ch’ung Ch’i. At T’ai-yüan fu, he was openly denounced to the Old
Buddha for having connived in the embezzlements of a certain Ch’en
Tsê-lin, who had been robbing the military Treasury on a grand
scale. Jung Lu had ordered that his defalcations be made good, but
subsequently informed the Throne that the money had been
captured by the Allies, and the accusing Censor did not hesitate to
say that the price of his conversion (brought to his quarters by the
hands of a sergeant named Yao) had been forty thousand taels of
silver, twenty pounds of best birdnests, and four cases of silk. The
Empress Dowager shelved the Memorial, as was her wont, though
no doubt she used the information for the ultimate benefit of her privy
purse. Jung Lu also received vast sums of money and many
valuable presents on his birthday, and at the condolence ceremonies
for the death of his wife, so much so that he incurred the fierce
jealousy of the chief eunuch Li Lien-ying, who was doing his best at
this time to re-feather his own nest, despoiled by the troops of the
Allies.
At T’ai-yüan fu, so many officials had joined the Court that
intrigues became rife; there was much heartburning as to
precedence and status. Those who had borne the burden and heat
of the day, the dangers and the hardships of the flight from Peking,
claimed special recognition and seniority at the hands of their
Imperial Mistress. Each of these thought they should be privileged
above those of equal rank who had only rejoined the Court when all
danger was past, and still more so above those who were now
hurrying up from the provinces in search of advancement.
The chief topic of discussion at audience, and at meetings of the
Grand Council, was the question of the Court’s return to Peking, or
of the removal of the Capital to one of the chief cities of the South or
West. Chang Chih-tung had put in a Memorial, strongly
recommending the city of Tang-Yang in Hupei, on account of its
central position. One of the arguments gravely put forward by the
“scholarly bungler” for this proposal was, that the characters “Tang-
Yang” (which mean “facing south”) were in themselves of good
augury, and an omen of better days to come, because the Emperor
always sits with his face to the south. Chang’s enemies at Court saw
in this idea a veiled hint that the Emperor should be restored to
power.
But Jung Lu was now facile princeps in the Old Buddha’s
counsels, and at audience his colleagues of the Grand Council (Lu
Ch’uan-lin and Wang Wen-shao) followed his lead implicitly. He
never ceased to advise the Empress to return forthwith to Peking,
and, when at a later date she decided on this step, it was rather
because of her faith in his sound judgment than because of the
many Memorials sent in from other high officials. During the Court’s
stay at T’ai-yüan fu, argument on this subject was continual, but
towards the end of September rumours reached Her Majesty that the
Allies were sending a swift punitive expedition to avenge the
murdered missionaries; this decided her to leave at once for Hsi-an
fu, where she would feel safe from further pursuit. The Court left
accordingly on the 30th September; but as the preservation of “face”
before the world is a fundamental principle, with Empresses as with
slave-girls, in China, her departure was announced in the following
brief Edict:—

“As Shansi province is suffering from famine, which makes

it very difficult to provide for our needs, and as the absence of
 telegraphic communication there causes all manner of
inconvenient delays, we are compelled to continue our
progress westwards to Hsi-an.”

The journey into Shensi was made with all due provision for the
dignity and comfort of their Majesties, but the Empress was
overcome by grief en route at the death of Kang Yi, chief patron of
the Boxers, and the most bigoted and violent of all the reactionaries
near the Throne. He fell ill at a place called Hou Ma, and died in
three days, although the Vice-President of the Board of Censors, Ho
Nai-ying, obtained leave to remain behind and nurse him. The Old
Buddha was most reluctant to leave the invalid, and showed unusual
emotion. After his death she took a kindly interest in his son (who
followed the Court to Hsi-an) and would frequently speak to him of
his father’s patriotism and loyalty.
At Hsi-an fu the Court occupied the Governor’s official residence,
into which Her Majesty removed after residing for a while in the
buildings formerly set apart for the temporary accommodation of the
Viceroy of Kansuh and Shensi on visits of inspection. Both Yamêns
had been prepared for Their Majesties’ use; the walls had been
painted Imperial red, and the outer Court surrounded with a palisade,
beyond which were the quarters of the Imperial Guards, and the
makeshift lodgings of the Metropolitan Boards and the officials of the
nine Ministries on Palace duty. The arrangements of the Court,
though restricted in the matter of space, were on much the same
lines as in Peking. The main hall of the “Travelling Palace” was left
empty, the side halls being used as ante-chambers for officials
awaiting audience. Behind the main hall was a room to which access
was given by a door with six panels, two of which were left open,
showing the Throne in the centre of the room, upholstered in yellow
silk. It was here that Court ceremonies took place. On the left of this
room was the apartment where audiences were held daily, and
behind this again were the Empress Dowager’s bedroom and private
sitting-room. The Emperor and his Consort occupied a small
apartment communicating with the Old Buddha’s bedroom, and to
the west of these again were three small rooms, occupied by the
Heir Apparent. The chief eunuch occupied the room next to that of
the Old Buddha on the east side. The general arrangements for the
comfort and convenience of the Court were necessarily of a
makeshift and provisional character and the Privy Purse was for a
time at a low ebb, so that Her Majesty was much exercised over the
receipt and safe custody of the tribute, in money and in kind, which
came flowing in from the provinces. So long as the administration of
her household was under the supervision of Governor Ts’en, the
strictest economy was practised; for instance, the amount allowed by
him for the upkeep of their Majesties’ table was two hundred taels
(about £25) per day, which, as the Old Buddha remarked on one
occasion, was about one-tenth of the ordinary expenditure under the
same heading at Peking. “We are living cheaply now,” she said; to
which the Governor replied, “The amount could still be reduced with
advantage.”
Her Majesty’s custom, in selecting the menus for the day, was to
have a list of about one hundred dishes brought in every evening by
the eunuch on duty. After the privations of the flight from Peking, the
liberal supply of swallows’ nests and bêche-de-mer which came in
from the South was very much appreciated, and her rough fare of
chickens and eggs gave way to recherché menus; but the Emperor,
as usual, limited himself to a diet of vegetables. She gave orders that
no more than half a dozen dishes should be served at one meal, and
she took personal pains with the supply of milk, of which she always
consumed a considerable quantity. Six cows were kept in the
immediate vicinity of the Imperial apartments, for the feeding of
which Her Majesty was charged two hundred taels a month. Her
health was good on the whole, but she suffered from indigestion,
which she attributed to the change of climate and the fatigues of her
journey. For occasional attacks of insomnia she had recourse to
massage, in which several of the eunuchs were well-skilled. After the
Court had settled down at Hsi-an fu, Her Majesty was again
persuaded to permit the presentation of plays, which she seemed
generally to enjoy as much as those in Peking. But her mind was for
ever filled with anxiety as to the progress of the negotiations with the
foreign Powers at the Capital, and all telegrams received were
brought to her at once. The news of the desecration of her Summer
Palace had filled her with wrath and distress, especially when, in
letters from the eunuch Sun (who had remained in charge at
Peking), she learned that her Throne had been thrown into the lake,
and that the soldiers had made “lewd and ribald drawings and
writings” even on the walls of her bedroom. It was with the greatest
relief that she heard of the settlement of the terms of peace,
subsequently recorded in the Protocol of 7th of September, and so
soon as these terms had been irrevocably arranged, she issued a
Decree (June, 1901) fixing the date for the Court’s return in
September. This Decree, issued in the name of the Emperor, was as
follows:

“Our Sacred Mother’s advanced age renders it necessary

that we should take the greatest care of her health, so that
she may attain to peaceful longevity; a long journey in the
heat being evidently undesirable, we have fixed on the 19th
day of the 7th Moon to commence our return journey, and are
now preparing to escort Her Majesty, viâ Honan.”

One of the most notorious Boxer leaders, namely, Duke Kung, the
younger brother of Prince Chuang, had accompanied the Court, with
his family, to Hsi-an. The Old Buddha, realising that his presence
would undoubtedly compromise her, now decided to send him away.
His family fell from one state of misery to another; no assistance was
rendered to them by any officials on the journey, and eventually, after
much wandering, the Duke was compelled to earn a bare living by
serving as a subordinate in a small Yamên, while his wife, who was
young and comely, was sold into slavery. It was clear that the Old
Buddha had now realised the error of her ways and the folly that had
been committed in encouraging the Boxers. After the executions and
suicides of the proscribed leaders of the movement she was heard
on one occasion to remark: “These Princes and Ministers were wont
to bluster and boast, relying upon their near kinship to ourselves,
and we foolishly believed them when they assured us that the
foreign devils would never get the better of China. In their folly they
came within an ace of overthrowing our Dynasty. The only one
whose fate I regret is Chao Shu-ch’iao. For him I am truly sorry.”
The fate of Prince Chuang’s brother showed clearly that both
officials and people had realised the genuine change in the Empress
Dowager’s feelings towards the Boxers, for there was none so poor
to do him honour.
Both on the journey to Hsi-an fu and on the return to the Capital,
Her Majesty displayed the greatest interest in the lives of the
peasantry and the condition of the people generally. She subscribed
liberally to the famine fund in Shansi, professing the greatest
sympathy for the stricken people. She told the Emperor that she had
never appreciated their sufferings in the seclusion of her Palace.
During the Court’s stay at Hsi-an fu the Emperor came to take
more interest in State affairs than he had done at any time since the
coup d’état, but although the Old Buddha discussed matters with him
freely, and took his opinion, he had no real voice in the decision of
any important matter. His temper continued to be uncertain and
occasionally violent, so that many high officials of the Court preferred
always to take their business to the Empress Dowager. One
important appointment was made at this time by the Old Buddha at
the Emperor’s personal request, viz., that of Sun Chia-nai (ex-
Imperial tutor) to the Grand Secretariat. This official had resigned
office in January 1900 upon the selection of the Heir Apparent, which
he regarded as equivalent to the deposition of the Emperor.[108]
Subsequently, throughout the Boxer troubles, he had remained in his
house at Peking, which was plundered, and he himself would
undoubtedly have been killed, but for the protection given him by
Jung Lu. At this time also, Lu Ch’uan-lin joined the Grand Council.
When the siege of the Legations began, he had left his post as
Governor of Kiangsu, and marched north with some three thousand
men to defend Peking against the foreigners. Before he reached the
Capital, however, it had fallen, so that, after disbanding his troops,
he went for a few weeks to his native place in Chihli, and thence
proceeded to join the Court at T’ai-yüan fu, where the Old Buddha
received him most cordially. His case is particularly interesting in that
he was until his death a member of the Grand Council,[109] and that,
like many other high officials at Peking, his ideas of the art of
government and the relative position of China in the world, remained
exactly as they were before the Boxer movement. His action in
proceeding to Peking with his troops from his post in the south is
also interesting, as showing the semi-independent position of
provincial officials, and the free hand which any man of strong views
may claim and enjoy. The Viceroys of Nanking and Wuch’ang might
dare to oppose the wishes of the Empress Dowager, and to exercise
their own judgment as regards declaring war upon foreigners, but it
was equally open to any of their subordinates to differ from them,
and to take such steps as they might personally consider proper,
even to the movement of troops.
An official, one of the many provincial deputies charged with the
carrying of tribute to the Court at Hsi-an, returning thence to his post
at Soochow, sent to a friend at Peking a detailed description of the
life of the Court in exile, from which the following extracts are taken.
The document, being at that time confidential and not intended for
publication, throws some light on the Court and its doings which is
lacking in official documents:—

“The Empress Dowager is still in sole charge of affairs, and

controls everything in and around the Court; those who
exercise the most influence with her are Jung Lu and Lu
Ch’uan-lin. Governor Ts’en, has fallen into disfavour of late.
His Majesty’s advisers are most anxious that she should
return to Peking. She looks very young and well; one would
not put her age at more than forty, whereas she is really sixty-
four. The Emperor appears to be generally depressed, but he
has been putting on flesh lately. The Heir Apparent is fifteen
years of age; fat, coarse-featured, and of rude manners. He
favours military habits of deportment and dress, and to see
him when he goes to the play, wearing a felt cap with gold
braid, a leather jerkin, and a red military overcoat, one would
take him for a prize-fighter. He knows all the young actors and
rowdies, and associates generally with the very lowest
classes. He is a good rider, however, and a very fair musician.
If, at the play-houses, the music goes wrong, he will
frequently get up in his place and rebuke the performer, and
at times he even jumps on to the stage, possesses himself of
the instrument, and plays the piece himself. All this brings the
boy into disrepute with respectable people, and some of his
pranks have come to the ears of the Old Buddha, who they
say has had him severely whipped. His last offence was to
commence an intrigue with one of the ladies-in-waiting on Her
Majesty, for which he got into serious trouble. He is much in
the company of Li Lien-ying (the chief eunuch), who leads him
into the wildest dissipation.[110] My friend Kao, speaking of
him the other day, wittily said, that ‘from being an expectant
Emperor, he would soon become a deposed Heir Apparent’;
which is quite true, for he never reads, all his tastes are
vicious, and his manners rude and overbearing. To give you
an instance of his doings: on the 18th of the 10th Moon,
accompanied by his brother and by his uncle, the Boxer Duke
Lan, and followed by a crowd of eunuchs, he got mixed up in
a fight with some Kansu braves at a theatre in the temple of
the City God. The eunuchs got the worst of it, and some
minor officials who were in the audience were mauled by the
crowd. The trouble arose, in the first instance, because of the
eunuchs attempting to claim the best seats in the house, and
the sequel shows to what lengths of villainy these fellows will
descend, and how great is their influence with the highest
officials. The eunuchs were afraid to seek revenge on the
Kansu troops direct, but they attained their end by
denouncing the manager of the theatre to Governor Ts’en,
and by inducing him to close every theatre in Hsi-an. Besides
which, the theatre manager was put in a wooden collar, and
thus ignominiously paraded through the streets of the city.
The Governor was induced to take this action on the ground
that Her Majesty, sore distressed at the famine in Shansi and
the calamities which have overtaken China, was offended at
these exhibitions of unseemly gaiety; and the proclamation
which closed the play-houses, ordered also that restaurants
and other places of public entertainment should suspend
business. Everybody in the city knew that this was the work of
the eunuchs. Eventually Chi Lu, Chamberlain of the
Household, was able to induce the chief eunuch to ask the
Old Buddha to give orders that the theatres be reopened. This
was accordingly done, but of course the real reason was not
given, and the Proclamation stated that, since the recent fall
of snow justified hopes of a prosperous year and good
harvests, as a mark of the people’s gratitude to Providence,
the theatres would be reopened as usual, ‘but no more
disturbances must occur.’
“The chief eunuch does not seem to be abusing his
authority as much as usual at Hsi-an, most of his time and
attention being given to the collection and safe keeping of
tribute. If the quality and quantity received is not up to his
expectations, he will decline to accept it, and thus infinite
trouble is caused to the officials of the province concerned.
“A few days before the Old Buddha’s sixty-fifth birthday in
the 10th Moon, Governor Ts’en proposed that the city should
be decorated, and the usual costly gifts should be presented
to Her Majesty, but to this proposal Prince P’u Tung took the
strongest exception; ‘China is in desperate straits,’ he said,
‘and even the ancestral shrines and birthplaces of the
Dynasty are in the hands of foreign troops. How then could
the Old Buddha possibly desire to celebrate her birthday? The
thing is impossible.’ The matter was therefore allowed to drop.
But the Governor is certainly most anxious to make a name
for himself, and, in spite of his blustering professions of an
independent attitude, he does not disdain to curry favour with
the chief eunuch and others who can serve him. They say
that he has recently sworn ‘blood brotherhood’ with Hsin, the
eunuch whose duty it is to announce officials at audiences.
No doubt it is due to this distinguished connection that he has
recently been raised to the rank of a Board President, and
therefore entitled to ride in a sedan chair within the precincts
of the Court, which, no doubt, he considers more dignified
than riding in a cart.[111]
“Tung Fu-hsiang has returned to his home in Kansu, but his
troops remain still at Hsi-an under the command of General
Teng, who so greatly distinguished himself in the Mahomedan
rebellion.
“It would seem that the Old Buddha still cherishes hopes of
defeating the foreigners, for she is particularly delighted by a
Memorial which has been sent in lately by Hsia Chen-wu, in
which he recommends a certain aboriginal tribesman (‘Man-
tzu’) as a man of remarkable strategic ability. He offers to lose
his own head and those of all his family, should this Heaven-
sent warrior fail to defeat all the troops of the Allies in one final
engagement, and he begs that the Emperor may permit this
man to display his powers and thus save the Empire.”
 XXI
HOW THE BOXER LEADERS DIED

China’s officials may be said to be a class of individualists,

incapable, as a rule, of collective heroism or any sustained effort of
organised patriotism; but it is one of the remarkable features and
results of her system of philosophy that the mandarins, even those
who have been known publicly to display physical cowardice at
critical moments, will usually accept sentence of death at the hands
of their Sovereign with perfect equanimity, and meet it with calm
philosophic resignation. The manner in which the Boxer leaders
died, who were proscribed in the course of the negotiations for the
peace Protocol at Peking, affords an interesting illustration of this
fact; incidentally it throws light also on a trait in the Chinese
character, which to some extent explains the solidity and
permanence of its system of government, based as it is on the
principle of absolute obedience and loyalty to the head of the State
as one of the cardinal Confucian virtues.
Despite the repeated and unswerving demands of the foreign
Powers that the death penalty should be inflicted upon the chief
leaders and supporters of the Boxers, the Empress Dowager was
naturally loth to yield, inasmuch as she herself had been in full
sympathy with the movement. It was only after many and prolonged
meetings with her chief advisers, and when she realised that in this
course lay her only hope of obtaining satisfactory terms of peace,
that she finally and most reluctantly consented, in February 1901, to
the issue of a Decree (drafted by Jung Lu) in which she abandoned
to their fate those who, with her full knowledge and approval, had led
the rising which was to drive all foreigners into the sea. With the
knowledge in our possession as to Her Majesty’s complicity, and in
some cases her initiative, in the anti-foreign movement, it is
impossible to read this Decree without realising something of the
ruthlessness of the woman and her cynical disregard of everything
except her own safety and authority. Even so, however, Tzŭ Hsi
could not bring herself at first to comply with all the demands of the
Powers, evidently hoping by compromise and further negotiations to
save the lives of her favourites, Prince Tuan, Duke Lan and Chao
Shu-ch’iao. The Decree, issued in the Emperor’s name, was as
follows:—

“In the summer of last year, the Boxer Rebellion arose,

which brought in its train hostilities with friendly Powers.
Prince Ch’ing and Li Hung-chang have now definitely settled
the preliminary conditions of the Peace Protocol. Reflecting
on the causes of this disaster, we cannot escape the
conclusion that it was due to the ignorance and arrogance of
certain of our Princes and Ministers of State who, foolishly
believing in the alleged supernatural power of the Boxers,
were led to disobey the Throne and to disregard our express
commands that these rebels should be exterminated. Not only
did they not do this, but they encouraged and assisted them
to such an extent that the movement gained hosts of
followers. The latter committed acts of unprovoked hostility,
so that matters reached a pass where a general cataclysm
became inevitable. It was by reason of the folly of these men
that General Tung, that obstinate braggart, dared to bombard
the Legations, thus bringing our Dynasty to the brink of the
greatest peril, throwing the State into a general convulsion of
disorder, and plunging our people into uttermost misery. The
dangers which have been incurred by Her Majesty the
Empress Dowager, and myself are simply indescribable, and
our hearts are sore, aching with unappeased wrath at the
remembrance of our sufferings. Let those who brought about
these calamities ask themselves what punishment can suffice
to atone for them?
“Our former Decrees on this subject have been far too
lenient, and we must therefore now award further
punishments to the guilty. Prince Chuang, already cashiered,
led the Boxers in their attack upon the French Cathedral and
the Legations, besides which, it was he who issued a
Proclamation in violation of all our Treaties. (This refers to the
rewards offered for the heads of foreigners.) He too it was
who, acting as the leader of the savage Boxers, put to death
many innocent persons. As a mark of clemency unmerited by
these crimes, we grant him permission to commit suicide, and
hereby order that Ko Pao-hua shall supervise the execution of
these our commands.
“Prince Tuan, already cashiered, was the leader and
spokesman of the Imperial Clan, to whom was due the
declaration of war against foreigners; he trusted implicitly in
Boxer magic, and thus inexcusably brought about hostilities.
Duke Lan, who assisted Prince Chuang in drawing up the
proclamation which set a price on the head of every foreigner,
deserves also that he be stripped of all his dignities and titles.
But remembering that both these Princes are our near
kinsmen, we mitigate their sentence to exile to Turkestan,
where they will be kept in perpetual confinement. The
Governor of Shensi, Yü Hsien, already cashiered, believed in
the Boxers at the time when he held the Governorship of
Shantung; when he subsequently came to Peking, he sang
their praises at our Court, with the result that many Princes
and Ministers were led astray by his words. As Governor of
Shansi he had put to death many missionaries and native
converts, proving himself to be an utterly misguided and
bloodthirsty man. He was undoubtedly one of the prime
causes of all our troubles. We have already decreed his
banishment to Turkestan, and by this time he should already
have reached Kansu. Orders are now to be transmitted for his
immediate decapitation, which will be superintended by the
Provincial Treasurer.
“As to the late Grand Secretary, Kang Yi, he also believed
in the Boxers, and went so far as to set a price on the lives of
foreigners so that, had he lived, he too would have been
sentenced to death, but as matters stand, we order that he be
posthumously deprived of his rank and summarily cashiered.
“We have already cashiered Tung Fu-hsiang. While
permitted to retain his rank as a military official, he cannot
escape a certain share of responsibility for the siege of the
Legations, although his orders emanated from Princes and
Ministers of State; and because of his ignorance of foreign
affairs, slack discipline, and general stupidity, he certainly
deserves severe punishment. But we cannot overlook the
services he has rendered in the Kansu rebellion, and the
good name which he bears amongst our Chinese and
Mahomedan subjects in that province, so that, as a mark of
our favour and leniency, we merely remove him from his post.
[112]

“Ying Nien, Vice-President of the Censorate, was opposed

to the issue of the proclamation which offered rewards for
foreigners’ heads, and for this he deserves lenient treatment,
but he failed to insist strongly in his objections, and we are
therefore compelled to punish him. He is hereby sentenced to
be cashiered and imprisoned pending decapitation.[113]
“As regards the Grand Councillor Chao Shu-ch’iao, he had
never, to our knowledge, shown any hostility to foreigners,
and when we despatched him on a special mission to confer
with the Boxers, the report which he submitted on his return
showed no signs of sympathy with their proceedings.[114]
Nevertheless, he was undoubtedly careless, and we
therefore, acting in leniency, decree that he be cashiered and
imprisoned pending decapitation.[115]
“The Grand Secretary Hsü T’ung and Li Ping-heng, our
Assistant Commander-in-Chief, have both committed suicide,
but as their behaviour has been very severely criticised, we
order that they be deprived of their ranks; and all posthumous
honours granted to them are hereby cancelled.
 “The Ministers of the friendly Powers can no longer fail to
recognise that the Boxer Rebellion was indeed the work of
these guilty officials, and that it was in no way due to any
action or wishes on the part of the Throne. In the punishment
of these offenders we have displayed no leniency, from which
all our subjects may learn how grave has been the recent
crisis.”

As the terms of this Decree still failed to satisfy the foreign

Ministers, especially as regards the sentences passed on Prince
Tuan and Duke Lan, another Decree, a week later, ordered that both
these Manchu leaders should be imprisoned pending decapitation, a
sentence which was eventually reduced to one of perpetual
banishment to Turkestan. Posthumous decapitation, a grievous
disgrace in the eyes of Chinese officials, was decreed as a further
punishment upon Kang Yi, while Chao Shu-ch’iao and Ying Nien
were ordered to commit suicide. Finally, the Grand Councillor Ch’i
Hsiu, and a son of the Grand Secretary Hsü T’ung (who had closely
followed in his father’s footsteps as the most violent opponent of
everything foreign), were sentenced to decapitation, and were duly
executed at Peking.
In compliance with the last demands of the Foreign Ministers, a
final Decree, the wording of which points clearly to reluctant action
under compulsion, restored the ranks and honours of the five
officials who had been executed for advising Her Majesty against the
Boxers. To revise this sentence without leaving them under some
imputation of blame would have involved most undesirable loss of
“face,” and the Decree therefore observes:—

“When we urged these officials, at a general audience of all

our Ministers, to state their views definitely, so that we might
judge fairly of the issues, they expressed themselves
hesitatingly, and our evil-disposed Princes and advisers were
thus able to take advantage of their apparent indecision. This
was the cause of their undoing. They were impeached on all
sides, and were eventually decapitated. We recall to mind the