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The
UK as a
Medium
Maritime
Power in the
21st Century
LOGISTICS FOR INFLUENCE
CHRISTOPHER MARTIN
The UK as a Medium Maritime Power
in the 21st Century
Christopher Martin
The UK as a Medium
Maritime Power in
the 21st Century
Logistics for Influence
Christopher Martin
School of Law and Politics
University of Hull Law and Politics
Hull, UK
Less than a century ago there was huge public awareness of the impor-
tance of the Royal Navy. The navy was the first line of defence from inva-
sion and protected the empire and the trade upon which British wealth
and security depended. Children collected cards of naval heroes much
like children today collect stickers of football stars. The Royal Navy was,
then at least, synonymous in the public mind with defence and prosperity.
Today, despite the UK’s deep dependency upon the globalised maritime-
based trading system, the general public is almost completely ‘sea-blind’.
Few understand what the Royal Navy does. One might also ask if many
policy-makers really understand too.
From its days of naval supremacy, by 1990 the Royal Navy had been
reduced to little more than an anti-submarine warfare force. Following the
SDR98 the Royal Navy appeared to have been granted a new life and the
focus was shifted to power projection. Nevertheless, the numbers of ships
continued to dwindle with the Royal Navy obtaining ever fewer but more
expensive warships centred on its core power projection role. The massive
reduction in numbers from those planned under SDR98 and the ques-
tions that persisted about whether the Royal Navy would acquire two, one
or none of the Queen Elizabeth class aircraft carriers is a strong indicator
that the role of the Royal Navy post-Cold War is yet undecided, at least in
the minds of policy-makers.
In the public imagination, the focus is always upon warships and for
those who take an interest the dwindling numbers are a matter of concern.
However, a far more insidious attack on the capability of the Royal Navy
has been taking place and that is the precipitous reduction in the number
v
vi PREFACE
of Royal Fleet Auxiliary vessels that support the fleet. The effect of the
decline in the Royal Fleet Auxiliary is little understood and discussed. The
Royal Fleet Auxiliary hardly makes the headlines, except perhaps when
its ships are substituting for warships, which is an increasingly common
occurrence given the lack of warships. However, it is the Royal Fleet
Auxiliary that keeps the Royal Navy on station, and without a full afloat
support logistics capability, the ability of the Royal Navy to conduct opera-
tions autonomously, at distance for extended periods is severely curtailed.
This study will argue that the present structure of the Royal Navy is
unsuitable for the coming century. The Royal Navy is too small and too
focused on a warfighting capability and that the reduction in Royal Fleet
Auxiliary numbers and capability is a fundamentally flawed policy. It will
argue that the decisions that have led to this situation are because of a fun-
damental misunderstanding on the part of policy-makers of the relation-
ship between policy, strategy and logistics. It will argue that strategy and
logistics are directed to one objective, control: control of the opponent
and control of the situation. It will also argue that the theoretical premise
upon which naval operations at distance have been conceived, namely,
Boulding’s Loss of Strength Gradient, is flawed for naval operations and
instead postulates a new theoretical concept, a Loss of Time Gradient.
It is the Loss of Time Gradient that explains the crucial requirement for
both sufficiency in force size and afloat support logistics. It argues that
naval operations are not governed by factors of distance but by factors of
time. Only by understanding this concept can the fullest capability of naval
forces be attained.
For a state like the UK, naval forces of sufficient capability and scale
will be indispensable in the maritime twenty-first century should the UK
wish to have control over events that will affect its globalised economic
interests. Should the UK fail to meet this challenge then other states will
and this will leave the UK reliant on the beneficence of others. This is a
risk the UK cannot take.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
I should like to thank the following for their cooperation and assistance
in the completion of this monograph: Rear Admiral John Richard Hill,
Vice-Admiral Sir Jeremy K. Blackham KCB and Professor Eric Grove.
Most importantly, my wife Marie without whom none of this could have
happened.
vii
CONTENTS
3 The Fleet 39
8 Conclusion 133
Bibliography 137
Index 147
ix
LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS/ACRONYMS
xi
xii LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS/ACRONYMS
xiii
LIST OF TABLES
xv
CHAPTER 1
A POST-MODERN STATE?
“Our vision is for a secure and prosperous United Kingdom, with global
reach and influence.”1 Such ambition has not materialised from thin air;
it has been a constant theme of the UK’s foreign and defence policy.
The SDSR10 stated the UK, “has always had global responsibilities and
global ambitions. We have a proud history of standing up for the values
we believe in and we should have no less ambition for our country in
the decades to come.”2 The UK Foreign Secretary stated at a speech
at the Mansion House in March 2012: “Britain is a transatlantic nation
and a European nation. But our role and interests go beyond that to be
global.”3 On 15 September 2015 in the House of Lords, Earl Howe,
Minister of State for Defence stated: “The fact that we are one of four
countries in the world building aircraft carriers underscores our commit-
ment to remain engaged in the world. Taken alongside our upgraded
capabilities across all domains, it gives us a full-spectrum capability to be
proud of.”4 On the face of it this all seems very well, but how can the
UK maintain influence in a complex and rapidly changing world where
the relative simplicity of the Cold War has given way to multipolarity,
regionalism and the growth of new centres of power? In this new world
order, according to the UK government: “The maintenance and expan-
sion of geopolitical influence will be an important consideration for all
powers, especially those with global or regional leadership aspirations.”5
And the UK has such aspirations as the Foreign Secretary stated: “The
National Security Council has reached a clear conclusion that Britain’s
national interest requires us to reject any notion of the shrinkage of our
influence.”6 This is a claim and ambition reaffirmed by Earl Howe in
2015: “We [the government] are clear that there will be no reduction in
Britain’s influence overseas.”7
Influence in global politics comes from a variety of factors, most of
which are fixed notwithstanding shifts in notions of power caused by
trends in globalisation. Power is important because “in international
politics, having power is having the ability to influence another to act in
ways in which that entity would not have acted otherwise.”8 This defini-
tion provides the widest understanding of power as it reflects the reality
that power encompasses a number of factors. In general it is sufficient
to note that in regard to concepts of power, Realist conceptions domi-
nate but there is certainly no proposal to enter into the long-standing
debate as to what constitutes power here.9 As regards economy, the World
Bank regards the UK as a “High Income OECD country”.10 UK’s GDP
amounted to $2.678 trillion dollars in 2013 and this placed the UK in
sixth place globally. The UK is a permanent member of the UN Security
Council, a leading member of the EU, at least for the present, and other
vitally important international organisations such as the Commonwealth.
Militarily the UK is a major player by normal (i.e. non-US) standards.
The UK is a leading member of NATO, the world’s most powerful and
long-standing military alliance, and is one of only seven declared nuclear-
armed states. In 2014 it spent $61.8 billion on defence, which placed
it fifth in the world in terms of largest defence spending.11 Although it
is almost certain that from 2016 the proportion of UK GDP dedicated
to defence will fall below the 2 % NATO minimum, whatever sleight-of-
hand perpetrated by government statisticians, the UK is one of a handful
of European members of NATO to have met this standard consistently
to date. There is no doubt that comparatively the UK retains many of
the ‘hard’ (Realist) determinants of power but it also has considerable
THE UNITED KINGDOM: A POST-MODERN MARITIME AND GLOBALISED... 3
AN ISLAND-STATE
Geography cannot be ignored. As an island archipelago the fact is that
what the UK cannot produce must in most cases come by sea and this is
also true of what the UK wishes to send abroad. The “UK’s coastline is
over 10,500 miles long and contains some 600 ports of various sizes.”23
The English Channel is the world’s second busiest international seaway.
UK ports move more than 500 million tons of freight annually including:
five million container units; seven million road goods vehicles; 240 mil-
lion tons of liquid bulk; seven million tons of Liquefied Natural Gas; 125
million tons of dry bulk and 25 million passengers: overall, 92 % of UK
international trade moves by sea as does 24 % of its internal trade.24
OVERSEAS TERRITORIES
Although the empire has gone, the UK maintains numerous overseas ter-
ritories. To these territories and their respective populations the UK has
legal and moral responsibilities. The territories are: Isle of Man; Channel
Islands; Anguilla; Bermuda; British Antarctic Territory; British Indian
Ocean Territory; British Virgin Islands; Cayman Islands; Falkland Islands;
Gibraltar; Montserrat; Pitcairn, Henderson, Ducie and Oeno Islands;
St Helena and dependencies (Ascension and Tristan da Cunha); South
Georgia and South Sandwich Islands; The Turks and Caicos Islands and
the sovereign base areas of Akrotiri and Dhekelia in Cyprus. These ter-
ritories are globally ranged, located in home waters, the North and South
Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean, Indian Ocean, Mediterranean, Antarctic and
Pacific Oceans. These territories taken together with the UK have a com-
bined EEZ of 2.5 million square miles, the fifth largest in the world.
In addition, it is estimated that about 10 % of the UK’s citizens live
overseas.25
SHIPBUILDING
Compared to only 50 years ago, UK’s shipbuilding is largely non-existent.
Save for specialised naval building and small leisure craft building, the
domestic mercantile marine shipbuilding industry has collapsed. This is
not unique to the UK however. According to the United Nations, in 2009
over 90 % of all shipbuilding occurred in just three countries: South Korea
(37.3 % of gross tonnage); China (28.6 %) and Japan (24.6 %) with the
THE UNITED KINGDOM: A POST-MODERN MARITIME AND GLOBALISED... 7
rest of the world accounting for just 9.6 %.26 The reality is that mercantile
shipping construction, as well as much naval shipping construction, is a
globalised industry.
A MARITIME-DEPENDENT STATE
Could or should the UK limit its concern for maritime matters to those
coastal areas over which it has responsibility and rights under international
law? The definitive answer is no. What matters is the degree of depen-
dency a state has on the global maritime network, because dependency
equals vulnerability. The reality is that the UK would face critical problems
should the global trading environment suffer shocks and disruption. The
UK Chamber of Shipping is unequivocal in its assertion: “The UK, as an
island nation, remains totally dependent on seaborne trade for its prosper-
ity.”38 The UK’s vulnerability will only increase over time as it is estimated
that UK imports by sea will increase by 135 % by 2030.39 For the likes of
Corbett and Mahan writing a century ago, the direct relationship between
national naval strength and national merchant marine was fully recog-
nised: the latter being dependent on the former for protection. Today
the link is less obvious but what matters, for a state like the UK which is
dependent on ship-borne commerce, is the stability of the maritime-based
trading environment overall. As a globalised phenomenon, disruption in
one place has an immediate effect elsewhere: there are no ‘far off places’
in the globalised maritime economy. The global shipping trade operates
THE UNITED KINGDOM: A POST-MODERN MARITIME AND GLOBALISED... 9
on a ‘just enough, just in time’ basis which leaves states with little reserves
of vital goods and materials in transit or in reserve. This has been com-
pounded by a decrease in the surplus of mercantile shipping available since
the 1980s. In 1986 there was an oversupply of shipping of 16.9 %, falling
to 0.7 % in 2005 increasing to 1 % in 2007. The recession which occurred
in the late 2010s will have increased this again but as the global economy
recovers, the surplus will again decline.40 Yet this decline in ‘spare capac-
ity’ is made all the more noteworthy by the fact that in the 30 years after
1980, the global shipping fleet increased as an expression of DWT by
almost 100 % meaning that the growth in global shipping capacity has just
kept pace with demand.41
For the UK it is the projected figures for vital raw materials such as
coal, oil and gas that cause the greatest concern. Over 90 % of UK energy
for light and heat comes from coal, gas and oil.42 As for coal, most of UK
domestic production was destroyed in the 1980s and consequently by
2006, 60 % of UK coal requirements came from overseas by ship. By 2020,
despite anticipated relative decline in coal use, the expectation is that the
UK will rely on overseas imported coal for over 75 % of its requirements.43
The UK has been fortunate in its oil and gas situation as a producer since
the 1960s. However, since 2006 the UK has been a net importer of oil.
The picture is complicated by the way the oil market, refining capacities
and products work. So for example in 2009 the UK imported 1.45 billion
barrels a day; exported 1.31 billion barrels a day; and consumed 1.62 bil-
lion barrels a day.44 Whatever energy measures are taken and whatever the
level of production of UK oil, it is expected that by 2020, 47 % of UK oil
consumption will be imported and, according to the IEA, “this will have
a significant impact on the United Kingdom’s oil security.”45 According
to the SDSR15, by 2030 the UK could import as much as 73 % of its
oil needs.46 The situation for gas is even worse. According to the IEA,
UK domestic production of gas will, “drop by more than 45 % over the
period to 2020, meaning that the United Kingdom’s import dependency
will rise sharply.”47 The same body reports that in 2009 imported gas
accounted for 31 % of the UK’s requirements and this could be as much
as 54 % by 2020.48 One assessment undertaken by the UK government is
even more pessimistic with a prediction that by 2020 the UK’s reliance on
imported gas could be as high as 80 %.49 Former First Sea Lord, Admiral
Sir Jonathan Band, speaking at RUSI in 2006 pointed out that, “Within
a few years, the UK will import a significant percentage of gas from the
Middle East—that means a gas carrying ship roughly every 300–400 miles
10 C. MARTIN
between the UK and the Gulf. With hardly any strategic reserve of gas in
the UK, it is clear that any interruption of that free supply of gas would
have very serious consequences for the UK’s economy.”50 Clearly, the UK
is a global player in the international trading environment. It is massively
dependent upon the security and stability of international trade, especially
for its energy security. Access to energy markets is absolutely crucial to the
well-being of the UK, as without this security of supply the UK way of
life would be crippled. Consequently, the issue is not just about shipping;
it is about the stability of UK interests globally. As the UK Chamber of
Shipping points out:
ECONOMIC WELL-BEING
There is considerable danger in simply reiterating the points above with-
out reflecting on what the real situation is for a globalised state such as the
UK. It is worth noting that many of the points made above are repeated
ad nauseam by those who wish to state the case for naval power. Indeed
they are used so often that, notwithstanding their truth, the impact of
these points is often lost through overfamiliarity. All the points can be
and are well made, but do they reflect accurately the economic situa-
tion the UK finds itself in today? At the 2011 International Seapower
Symposium, Mr Stephen Carmel53 made a powerful speech in which he
pointed out a number of important realities for the maritime sector.54 The
THE UNITED KINGDOM: A POST-MODERN MARITIME AND GLOBALISED... 11
most important point that Carmel made was that the commonly held view
of globalisation is erroneous. Commentators, argued Carmel, often focus
upon ‘interdependence’ with their meaning explicitly being embedded
in Ricardian concepts of comparative advantage. According to Carmel,
“this is, however, a strikingly narrow view of globalisation, and in truth
it is a definition more fitting of the last age of globalisation [which ended
in 1914] than the current one.”55 Nations do not manufacture in order
to trade as they did before, rather, according to Carmel, “We no longer
simply trade what we make for what we do not make but need. We now
trade in order to get what we need to make what we make. Before we
were self-sufficient in some, but not all of what we needed, and we could
trade the excess to fill the gaps. Now we are self sufficient in nothing
but make everything.”56 But what does this mean in practice? Consider
the following well-known trademark seen on the back of Apple products.
“Designed by Apple in California. Assembled in China.” The important
word here is “assembled”. Years ago it would have been common to see
‘made in’, but Apple products are not ‘made in’ China nor indeed are they
‘made’ anywhere else. Consider the following observation from the New
York Times, “Though components differ between versions, all iPhones
contain hundreds of parts, an estimated 90 % of which are manufactured
abroad. Advanced semiconductors have come from Germany and Taiwan,
memory from Korea and Japan, display panels and circuitry from Korea
and Taiwan, chipsets from Europe and rare metals from Africa and Asia.
And all of it is put together in China.”57 This is not just true of this one
product; in today’s international system this is typical. Products are not
‘made’, they are assembled: their original components, the raw materials
and the initial composite stage components shipped, transhipped, assem-
bled, shipped again for the next stage in the ‘assembly’ process. Products
thus assembled originate in dozens or more countries. They move many
times in various stages of completion before final assembly and sale, and
these movements, except in rare cases, are by sea. A 2014 report by
Standard Chartered Bank explained: “Trade is increasingly ‘unbundled’
with countries no longer trading in goods so much as in ‘tasks’, such as
design or assembly. Goods are ‘made in the world’, with components and
partial assemblies frequently traded several times across borders before the
final product reaches consumers.”58 This report notes that this trend will
continue:
12 C. MARTIN
The difference between the traditional supply chain model and today’s more
complex supply chains lies in the fact that trade is now not so much in goods
but in tasks, a reflection of growing specialisation that allows the same prod-
uct to be both imported and exported by the same country…this difference
is highlighted by the rise in the import content of exports, now estimated to
be around 40 %, compared to 20 % in the 1990s according to the WTO…
data from the OECD confirms this trend…the WTO expects it to rise to
60 % by the 2030s…rapid advances in communication and technology are
lowering barriers to unbundling tasks further, allowing for integration of
newer, low-cost, more distant geographies in the global supply chain.59
fies British-flagged cargo ships for protection, but, given the complexity
described, just what constitutes a ‘British cargo’ under modern conditions?
Of particular concern is the very complexity of this system. It is just pos-
sible that it is so complex that we lack the ability to diagnose problems
and find fixes. Efforts to deconstruct the globalised trading system into
neat maritime and non-maritime silos are doomed to failure owing to the
overwhelming complexity of the system to the degree that it is erroneous
and misleading to try to disaggregate the system and isolate ‘maritime’
as though it were independent of all other system parts.64 Additionally, it
is nonsensical, according to Carmel, to see system vulnerability as simple
threats to isolated nodes; it is far more complex than that. “Vulnerability
is not about the physical ease or difficulty of attack on any particular node
or vector in the supply chain. It is not—instead, vulnerability is a matter
of how the system behaves, how it fails, and how quickly it can be made
to recover once a particular node or vector has been disrupted.”65 What
we are considering is a global system of astonishing complexity and, whilst
it certainly is maritime-based, it is far more than that. Almost all west-
ern navies discuss interconnectivity and make sweeping claims about the
rationale for navies within the context of globalised interconnectedness
but do they fully comprehend the meaning of it? “Consider that in 2010,
according to the WTO, there was $18.8 trillion in total world trade, of
which $3.7 trillion, or about 19.5 % was in services…this trade moves on
fibre-optic backbones, not ships—and in fact…goods can no longer move
on ships without a robust and parallel flow in information. This means that
cyber warriors are doing every bit as much to ensure the smooth flow of
trade as are those standing watches on the bridges of ships in the Strait of
Hormuz.”66
The UK’s maritime interests go much further than trade and services.
The MSCC points out that as well as the standard areas of activity (resource
exploitation, services, trade) the UK maritime sector includes: academia;
scientific research; manufacture of specialised marine equipment; mechan-
ical, chemical, electrical and civil engineering; marine archaeology; earth
sciences; climate research; socio-economics and aquaculture. This wide,
and not exhaustive, list of activities brings together what is now referred
to as the Blue Economy. The Blue Economy is a key programme of invest-
ment and development for the wider EU area incorporating: aquaculture,
coastal tourism, marine biotechnology, ocean energy and seabed mining.
The UK is a key partner in this EU-wide policy and, as the UK has one of
the largest EEZs, has much to gain. The Blue Economy in the EU area is
14 C. MARTIN
responsible for generating 5.4 million jobs across Europe and €500 billion
annually.67 Technology has made the marine environment far more impor-
tant today for human economic development and well-being.
NOTES
1. National Security Strategy and Strategic Defence and Security
Review 2015: A secure and prosperous United Kingdom, (hereinaf-
ter SDSR15), Cm9161, (London, HMSO, November 2015), p. 9,
para 1.1, (Bold in original).
2. Securing Britain in an Age of Uncertainty: Strategic Defence and
Security Review 2010, (hereinafter SDSR10), Cm7948, (London,
HMSO, October 2010), p. 3.
3. FCO, Foreign Secretary’s Speech to the Lord Mayor’s Banquet, 29
March 2012, online at: www.fco.gov.uk/news/en/news/latest-
news/?view=Speech&id=747730582 (accessed on 30 November
2012).
THE UNITED KINGDOM: A POST-MODERN MARITIME AND GLOBALISED... 17
The next campaign was precipitated by a fall. She claimed that she
had dislocated her elbow-joint; she was treated for dislocation by a
physician, and discharged with an arm stiff at the elbow. A wooden
magnet was applied to the arm, the spasm relaxed, and the
dislocation disappeared.
This ends Harlan's report of the case, and I had thought that this
patient's Iliad of woes was also ended; but I have just been informed
by J. Solis Cohen and his brother that she has again come under
their care. The latter was sent for, and found the patient seemingly
choking to death. The right chest was fixed; there was marked
dyspnœa; respiration 76 per minute; her expectoration was profuse;
she had hyperresonance of the apex, and loud mucous râles were
heard. At last accounts she was again recovering.
Among the important conclusions of this paper are the following: “1.
In typical hysteria the emotional symptoms are the most prominent,
and according to many authors the most characteristic. In all the
cases of cerebral disease related there were undue emotional
manifestations or emotional movements not duly controlled. 2. In
typical hysteria many of the objective phenomena are almost always
shown on the left side of the body, and we may consequently feel
sure that in these cases the right hemisphere is disordered. In nearly
all of the above sixteen cases the right hemisphere was the seat of
organic disease, and the symptoms were on the left side of the
body.”
What is the lesson to be learned from this case? It is, in the first
place, not to consider a patient doomed until you have made a
careful examination. There can be much incurvation of the spine
without sufficient compression to cause complete paralysis. In this
patient organic disease was associated with an hysterical or
neuromimetic condition. This woman had disease of the vertebræ,
the active symptoms of which had subsided. The vertebral column
had assumed a certain shape, and the cord had adjusted itself to this
new position, yet for a long time she was considered incurable from
the fact that the conjunction of a real and a mimetic disorder was
overlooked.