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Policy Internet - 2022 - Mueller - Regulation of Platform Market Access by The United States and China Neo Mercantilism
Policy Internet - 2022 - Mueller - Regulation of Platform Market Access by The United States and China Neo Mercantilism
Policy Internet - 2022 - Mueller - Regulation of Platform Market Access by The United States and China Neo Mercantilism
DOI: 10.1002/poi3.305
RESEARCH ARTICLE
KEYWORDS
Alibaba, digital platforms, Google, Huawei, International Political
Economy, International Trade, Internet Governance,
Neomercantilism, United States–China relations
INTRODUCTION
In the past 10–12 years, the United States has undergone a major shift in attitude toward
China, seeing it as a systemic threat. In the minds of the U.S. military, politicians, and
policymakers, technology is at the center of that threat. The technological competition in
space and weaponry between the United States and the Soviet Union does not provide
much precedent, because there was little economic integration tying the Soviet bloc and the
West together. China confronts the United States with a highly connected but competing
system of political economy. It accepts domestic and global markets and competitive
enterprises, subordinates them to an authoritarian, one‐party state and protectionist trade
policy. Economic interdependence is vital to both countries’ interests but its asymmetrical
nature is also a source of tension and competition.
Much of the tension stems from both countries’ attempts to lead the digital economy. As
this paper will show, this competitive struggle is more asymmetrical than most people
realize, with the United States in a far stronger position (Jia et al., 2018). Nevertheless, the
United States and China stand apart from the rest of the world as the countries with the
biggest and most globally prominent commercial digital platforms. A survey of platform
companies by Evans and Gawer (2016) found that platforms headquartered in America and
China accounted for nearly 90% of the combined market value of all the platform firms
counted. A ranking based on 2022 market capitalization data (Table 1) shows that all but
one of the world's top 20 platforms are headquartered in the United States or China.1 United
States and Chinese companies dominate the world's platform businesses and technologies
to an astounding degree.
United States–China dominance in the platform space makes trade relations between
the two countries highly significant for global digital governance. If there were mutual, open
market access between the two it would enhance specialization, pool knowledge and R&D
investments, increase competition in both countries and develop a set of common rules.
Such an integrated digital economy would likely set the terms for the entire world. A digital
economy split between the United States and China, on the other hand, becomes a tool of
geopolitical competition between the world's two largest economic and military powers. This
could lead to diverging standards and rules, diminished trust, less business competition, and
barriers to market entry and technology transfer.
This paper shows that policymakers in both countries are going down the path of a
divided platform economy. We label the interaction pattern digital neo‐mercantilism because
it denotes a fusion between economic development in the digital economy and the power
and security of the national state. At a time when digitization is transforming the global
economy, policymakers represent these sectors in domestic policy discourse as critical to
the security and relative power of the state, and pursue various forms of industrial policy,
trade protectionism or exclusion of foreigners as a result.
We believe that naming this pattern is essential to understanding and assessing it.
Our use of the term draws on classical political economy (Magnussen, 2015) but is also
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350 | MUELLER AND FARHAT
13 PayPal $ 95 USA
14 ServiceNow $ 92 USA
16 Booking.com $ 89 USA
17 Airbnb $ 88 USA
18 Netflix $ 80 USA
20 NetEase $ 59 China
As demonstrated below, technical blocking was the most important constraint. Any
platform services involving content (search, video, news, email, etc.) had to conform to CCP
censorship in exchange for market access. Censorship created competitive disadvantages
for American entrants, but those restrictions were lighter and less systematic in the first
decade of the 21st century than they are now. Blocking did not begin to target entire
platforms until mid‐2009. As will be clear from the material below, political, not economic,
protectionism motivated this change. The Party feared that Internet‐fueled discourse and the
free exchange of news and information would undermine its control of the country.
E‐commerce
E‐commerce gave rise to some of America's and China's biggest platforms. As far as we
know, China has never blocked Internet access to major consumer‐to‐consumer (C2C) and
business‐to‐business (B2B) e‐commerce platforms. EBay and Amazon, the two major
American e‐commerce platforms, were early entries into the Chinese market. Amazon
entered it in 2000, but had trouble competing with rivals that offered free shipping or did not
require minimum order thresholds. EBay entered China in 2002 with a $30 million
investment in Eachnet, a Chinese C2C marketplace founded in 1999 by two Chinese
entrepreneurs with degrees from Harvard Business School. Eachnet traded apparel,
electronics, and real estate on the platform, accounting for 95% of China's small (at that
time) online C2C market (Sinha, 2018). In 2003, eBay spent $150 million to acquire 100%
ownership of Eachnet. Amazon, in 2004, decided to acquire a local partner and purchased
bookseller Joyo.com for U.S. $75 million. Founded in 2000 by prolific Chinese entrepreneur
Lei Jun, Joyo was renamed Amazon China but withered under Amazon's ownership due to
the low priority afforded it in the company's global strategy (Jiang, 2011).
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POLICY & INTERNET | 353
Domestic e‐commerce firm Alibaba was founded in 1999. Attesting to the mindset and
goals of its founder, Jack Ma, Alibaba's first website was in English and was aimed at a
global wholesale market. Alibaba acquired most of its start‐up capital from investors in the
United States and Japan (Goldman Sachs $5 m, Softbank $20 m). In 2002, it became
profitable and raised $82 million additional capital from foreign sources. In 2003 it started
Taobao Marketplace, a C2C platform that competed with eBay, and rejected eBay's offer to
buy it out. By March 2006, eBay China's market share had dropped to 29%; Taobao had a
67% share. Later in 2006 Alibaba solidified its financial position by forming a strategic
partnership with Yahoo!, an American competitor of eBay. Yahoo! invested $1 billion in
Alibaba Group, in exchange for a 42% equity interest. Alibaba Group went on to stretch
China's restrictions on foreign investment and western accounting standards to the limit by
using the VIE/offshore holding company structure to obtain a listing on the New York Stock
Exchange in 2014, raising a record $25 billion. It is now the dominant force in Chinese e‐
commerce and one of China's two biggest multisided, multiproduct platforms.
Because of the lighter market access barriers, the e‐commerce market provides a taste
of what a more globally integrated platform market would look like. Consultancy reports
(Koetsier, 2020) value the global e‐commerce market at $3.4 trillion. Alibaba Group's
Taobao accounts for 15% of that market, Alibaba's TMall accounts for 14%. Amazon
accounts for 13%, JD.com holds 9%, Pinduoduo 4%, and eBay 3%. The next 5% of the
world market is held by 6 large, mostly Chinese and American companies: Rakuten (Japan),
Walmart (USA), VIP.com (China), Sunning.com (China), Apple (USA), and Shopee
(Singapore). The remaining 37% of the market is divided between hundreds of companies,
large and small (Koetsier, 2020).
and achieved a 10%–11% share of search users. In 2006, Google launched a local version
of its search engine, Google.cn, using servers in China. To gain market access, Google
agreed to conform to official government restrictions on content, including pornography,
gambling, and politically sensitive subjects such as Tiananmen Square, Taiwan, and the
Falun Gong. Microsoft and Yahoo had already agreed to similar restrictions for their
blogging sites, indexes, email, and search engines. In returning search results, however,
Google notified its users that some results were removed. “That public acknowledgment of
internet censorship was a first among Chinese search engines, and it wasn't popular with
regulators,” according to a journalist's report (Sheehan, 2019). During the 2006–2009
period, Google's market share in China search grew from 12% to 35%. Facebook and
Twitter were also accessible in China during this period.
The door started to close in the middle of 2009. Two incidents precipitated a change. The
first was a June 2009 outbreak of ethnic conflict between Uighurs and Han Chinese in
Guangdong Province, which led to riots and demonstrations in Xinjiang Province's capital
city in July. It was then that the Chinese government imposed a complete blackout of
Facebook, Twitter, and Google's YouTube. The second precipitating incident was Google's
discovery in December 2009 that it had been hacked by an adversary using very
sophisticated methods. Google concluded that the adversary was a Chinese state actor, and
that its motive was to break into the Gmail accounts of human rights activists. On January
12, 2010, Google announced, “We have decided we are no longer willing to continue
censoring our results on Google.cn.” (Zetter, 2010) The redirection of search requests from
that site to the uncensored Google.hk eventually led to the complete blocking of Google.cn
in mainland China. The eruption of the Arab Spring in 2011 and 2012 reinforced Chinese
fears of uncontrolled social media. In mid‐2014, a few months before Alibaba's IPO, the
government blocked virtually all Google services in China, including Gmail, Google Maps,
and Google Scholar.
Currently, Microsoft's Xbox, Bing, Outlook, and LinkedIn are permitted to operate in
China. The market access of Microsoft products and services, however, are constantly
under threat from censorship or national security restrictions. Even though Bing manipulates
and censors its search results for Chinese users in line with the Communist Party's policies,
in early 2019, it was briefly blocked with no public explanation. Skype was available for many
years, but in the autumn of 2017 the Ministry of Public Security ordered it removed from the
Apple and Android app stores.5 One indicator of the impact of politically motivated market
access restrictions is shown in the evolution of search engine usage share in Figure 1 below.
American platforms’ usage share declined from 40% in 2009 to about 5% in 2020.
Ride‐hailing platforms
Uber's foray into the Chinese ride‐hailing market in 2014 demonstrated that China's platform
market was still open to foreign entry if the services did not involve content. Two major
Chinese companies had already entered the ride‐hailing market in 2012 and 2013, each
backed by incumbent platform operators: Tencent supported Didi Dache; Alibaba backed
Kuaidi Dache. Uber entered in 2014, funded mostly by foreign venture capital but supported
by Baidu, China's third biggest platform.
Didi and Kuaidi held 55% and 40% market shares, respectively, at the beginning of 2014.
After testing the market in late 2013, Uber formed the Uber China subsidiary and launched
operations in Beijing and Shanghai in July 2014 using Baidu's map for positioning and
navigation functions. Uber hired local managers and empowered them to run operations in
their cities. After a year, it had expanded to 9 cities and had a 15%–20% share of the
growing market.
In February of 2015, the two big Chinese ride‐hailing platforms merged to form Didi
Kuaidi. As this happened, Uber precipitated a market disruption by implementing the radical
business model it was pioneering in the rest of the world, which allowed non‐taxi drivers to
monetize their private cars. In the Spring of 2015, Uber introduced this innovation in China
under the label “Peoples Uber.” This move not only disrupted the economics of the market,
setting in motion intense competition to attract drivers, but disrupted legal and regulatory
arrangements as well.6
In response to Uber's competition, Didi Kuaidi raised U.S. $4.5 billion from a group of
foreign and domestic investors in June 2016, and received a $2.5 billion syndicated loan
arranged by China Merchants Bank Co. A month later, Chinese authorities announced new
regulations to settle the issues raised by the rapidly expanding industry. They loosened
cartel licensing of taxis but required drivers to provide evidence of 3 years of driving
experience and no record of traffic accidents. Services were also required to provide
customers with official receipts. Shortly after publication of the new regulations on August 1,
2016, Didi Kuaidi announced that it would acquire Uber China, consolidating the biggest
players.7 Didi went on to expand into regional and international markets (Jia et al., 2018).
In this case, competing foreign firms and foreign investors profoundly shaped the
development and growth of China's ride‐hailing platform. Without deeper research, it is
difficult to know for sure whether the buyout was driven primarily by private, market‐oriented
deals among the competitors, or a state policy favoring domestic suppliers. Likely, it was a
mix of both but more the former. In their competition for drivers, the contestants had spent
billions on subsidies, and realized that they would all profit if they stopped competing in a
market with winner‐take‐all characteristics. While events forced regulators to update the
rules governing taxis to account for car‐sharing by unlicensed drivers, when it came to the
merger they were little more than approvers of a business deal.
Cloud services
Cloud service providers (CSPs) emerged a decade after the original e‐commerce and social
media platforms. Companies operating platforms learned that the advanced software
capabilities enabled by their own infrastructure could be rented out to third party customers.
Platforms could offer Software as a Service (SaaS), Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS), and
Platform as a Service (PaaS). Unsurprisingly, given the complementarity between platform
supply and cloud services, the main players in cloud services are the major American and
Chinese platforms: Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Alibaba, and Tencent.
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356 | MUELLER AND FARHAT
Other: 28%
Note: Data sources—World: Synergy Research Group (2022); Canalys, China Internet Watch (2022).
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POLICY & INTERNET | 357
C H I N E S E P L A T F O R M S’ ACCE SS T O T H E U S A
With one notable exception (Huawei, see Section 4.2 below), Chinese information service
providers enjoyed unrestricted access to U.S. markets until 2017. The United States does
not have a government‐mandated Internet blocking regime, so any Chinese website was,
and for the most part still is, available to U.S. users. Until 2017, investment in or acquisition
of tech companies by Chinese platforms was freely permitted. As of 2021, all major Chinese
platform apps, such as Weibo, Alibaba, Baidu, and WeChat, were available to Americans
through the Apple and Android App Stores in the United States. Nevertheless, the United
States started to erect market access barriers targeting China beginning in 2008.
Telecommunication infrastructure equipment supplied the initial focus for the barriers, but
the restrictions were progressively expanded to include payment systems, social media
platforms, and telecommunication services.
In the United States, as in China, trade policy played a surprisingly small role in the
justification for these restrictions. Instead, national security claims justified by an implicit
theory that China's techno‐economic prowess is a major threat to the United States, were
most prominent. The U.S. whole‐of‐government effort involved a domestic political bargain
between China hawks in Congress and an isolationist Trump administration
(see Section 4.6).
A very different attitude toward Chinese firms had been growing in U.S. military and
intelligence agencies, where the emergence of an internationally competitive Chinese
electronics sector was viewed with hostility and suspicion. Telecommunications equipment
vendor Huawei became the focal point of this threat narrative. Some saw it as an indicator of
how the commercialization of China's electronics sector was increasing its military
capabilities (RAND Corporation, 2005). Others dismissed its status as a competitive,
commercially motivated business and characterized it as a Trojan Horse designed to give
the Chinese state the ability to spy on or sabotage critical infrastructure.10
Huawei entered international telecom equipment markets in the late 1990s. By the early
2000s, it had contracts in Russia, Eastern Europe, Africa, and Asia. By 2008 it was the
world's third‐largest mobile equipment vendor.11 In an attempt to enter the North American
market Huawei moved to acquire U.S. network equipment manufacturer 3Com in 2008. The
deal ignited political criticism, and the Committee on Foreign Investment in the US (CFIUS)
blocked the deal (Mulligan & Linebaugh, 2021). The rationale for denial was Huawei's
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358 | MUELLER AND FARHAT
alleged past ties to the Chinese military and 3Com's status as a supplier of cybersecurity
software to Defense Industrial Base firms.
In 2010 the 4th largest U.S. mobile network operator, Sprint‐Nextel, was planning to
order Huawei equipment as part of a major upgrade of its network. An organized pressure
campaign from the Defense Department and a bipartisan set of legislators prompted Sprint
to abandon that deal (Barboza, 2010). Early in 2011 CFIUS disapproval forced Huawei to
divest the assets of U.S. server technology company 3Leaf, which it had acquired the year
before.12 U.S. agencies also began to investigate Huawei's executives for evading U.S.
sanctions on Iran (Goldstein et al., 2018).
The narrative that Huawei was a Trojan horse for China's government gained traction in
2011, as the House of Representatives’ Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence
started an investigation of the “counterintelligence and security threat posed by Chinese
telecommunications companies doing business in the United States” (U.S. House
Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence U.S. HPSCI, 2012). The final report failed to
produce any concrete evidence of Huawei‐facilitated espionage or backdoors. Indeed,
during the investigation the U.S. NSA breached Huawei's cybersecurity and monitored
communications at its headquarters. The motive was both to see if the company was
cooperating with the Chinese state and to enable spying on Huawei's customers (Sanger &
Perlroth, 2014). Yet “Operation Shotgiant,” as it was called by the NSA, produced no
evidence for the Trojan Horse argument.
This did not stop the Congressional report from arriving at its predetermined conclusion:
Huawei was a national security threat. The report recommended “view[ing] with suspicion”
Chinese companies’ entry into the U.S. telecommunications market; CFIUS should block
any “acquisitions, takeovers, or mergers involving Huawei and ZTE;” legislation should
expand the authority of CFIUS to include procurement decisions by U.S. private firms. The
report warned the U.S. private sector “to seek other vendors for their projects.” Although no
incidents involved Huawei or ZTE equipment, the U.S. did experience severe cases of
Chinese cyberespionage from 2009 to 2015 (Center for Strategic and International Studies
[CSIS], 2021; Shane & Lehren, 2010).
The election of Donald Trump as President in 2016 put an openly protectionist President
and a Republican Party dominated by nationalistic China hawks in control of the Presidency
and Congress. Restrictions on China's market access intensified in 2017 and 2018 and then
reached a fever pitch in 2019 and 2020.
The Trump administration followed the policy line developed by the House Committee report
from 2012. CFIUS began to block almost all Chinese incoming investment in the ICT sector
(Baker, 2017; U.S.‐China Economic and Security Review Commission, 2018). Three of the
denials involved platforms: Navinfo/Tencent's attempt to acquire an automotive map
company in September 2017 (Auchard, 2017); Ant Financial's attempt to enter the U.S.
payment systems market by acquiring Moneygram in January 2018 (Roumeliotis, 2017);
and Kunlun Tech's acquisition of dating platform Grindr (Wang, 2019). All the denials
involved an assertion that a commercial Chinese company's access to data about American
users and economic transactions was a national security threat.
Congress also heeded the House Committee's 2012 call for expanded powers for
CFIUS. The 2018 Foreign Investment Risk Review Modernization Act (FIRRMA) passed
with bipartisan support. CFIUS was now empowered to review noncontrolling investments if
they involved technologies vaguely defined as “emerging and foundational.” The relevant
technologies no longer needed to be directly related to military capabilities to be eligible for
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POLICY & INTERNET | 359
On August 18, 2017, the U.S. Trade Representive initiated a major investigation into China's
“Acts, Policies, and Practices Related to Technology Transfer, Intellectual Property, and
Innovation.” (USTR, 2018) The proceeding was an exhaustive catalogue of U.S. concerns
about the economic threat posed by China's state‐directed economy. The report, published
in March 2018, painted a picture of a Chinese state that was orchestrating a long‐term plan
to “introduce, digest, absorb and re‐innovate” America's high‐tech capabilities to achieve
self‐sufficiency and world leadership. The report asserted that China's global ambitions
relied on local protectionism. The Made in China 2025 Notice released by China's State
Council in 2015 set explicit market share targets to be filled by Chinese producers in dozens
of high‐tech industries (USTR, 2018). In the view of the USTR, China's statist economy was
a dangerous strength, not a weakness. It took the pronouncements of China's central
planners at face value and assumed that China's ability to subsidize industries and centrally
control both incoming and outgoing capital investment in line with its industrial policy
objectives would guarantee dominance in the global economy.13
The Section 301 investigation covered numerous high technology industries in addition
to platforms, but it set the framework for the offensive export control policy (covered in
Section 4.6) and harsher restrictions on platform market access (covered in section 4.7.)
that followed in 2019 and 2020. Although it frequently accused China of mercantilism, the
underlying premises of the USTR were also deeply neo‐mercantilist. According to the report,
trade with China was regarded a zero‐sum game in which access to U.S. capital and
technology would deliver relative gains to the power of the Chinese state at the expense of
the United States.
those authorizations. No proof that the licenses or facilities of these companies had been
used to breach U.S. data or networks was provided. The FCC blocked China Mobile from
offering phone service in the United States in April 2019 and then ejected China Telecom
and Unicom later. (Federal Communications Commission [FCC], 2019a, 2019b, 2020). The
three telecom firms were later delisted from the NYSE via a Trump administration executive
order.
Two international cable landings were also denied because of Chinese ownership. One
was a partnership involving Google, Facebook, and a Chinese company with proposed
landing sites in Los Angeles and Hong Kong. Despite the presence of U.S. firms, the project
was killed because of “the PRC government's sustained efforts to acquire the sensitive
personal data of millions of U.S. persons, the PRC government's access to other countries’
data through both digital infrastructure investments and recent PRC intelligence and
cybersecurity laws, and changes in the market that have transformed subsea cable
infrastructure into increasingly data‐rich environments that are vulnerable to exploitation.”14
Export controls
United States restrictions on China trade rely heavily on export controls, which restrict the
sales of its own domestic companies. From a trade policy standpoint, this is
counterproductive. From a national security standpoint, however, export restrictions on
advanced technologies can be seen as a way to limit an adversary's ability to benefit from
the best technology. During the cold war, export controls were intended to prevent advanced
weapons from reaching an enemy power, so that the United States could maintain a
competitive advantage in a direct military conflict. The export controls imposed during the
Trump administration, in contrast, broadened the scope of controls beyond weapons and
came to include almost any products or exchange of knowledge that might contribute to the
development of Chinese high tech.
In the midst of the trade war with China in late 2017, existing export control laws were
regarded as inadequate to address the threat of outbound strategic technology transfers
through U.S.‐Chinese joint ventures. Therefore, in late 2018 Congress reformed both
inbound and outbound investment control measures with the Export Control Reform Act
(ECRA) and the Foreign Investment Risk Review Modernization Act (FIRMMA). Both
reforms were designed to achieve a complementary and coherent U.S. response to counter
the rise of the Chinese high‐technology market (Crapo, 2019; Padilla et al., 2018).
The Export Controls Reform Act of 2018 (ECRA) greatly expanded the U.S.
government's authority to apply dual‐use export controls to information and communications
technology. Like FIRRMA, its primary motivation was to cut off Chinese buyers from
American supplies of “foundational information and know‐how.” The U.S. Commerce
Department developed a vast list of specific Chinese companies connected to the military to
which an array of products and services, including many that could be civilian uses, must not
be sold.
That harder line led to the addition of Huawei to the Entity List of the U.S. Commerce
Department's Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) in May 2019. Because of its presence
on this list, no U.S. firms (or foreign companies who want to retain access to the U.S.
market) were allowed to transact with Huawei. In August 2020, the restrictions were
tightened further to prevent Huawei and its affiliates from acquiring semiconductors that are
the direct product of certain U.S. software and technology, eliminating a Temporary General
License that authorized certain transactions with Huawei, and adding 38 additional affiliates
of Huawei to the Entity List. (U.S. Department of Defense, 2020) As a result, Huawei's
business stagnated and its market share in mobile phones worldwide declined over three
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POLICY & INTERNET | 361
quarters, from 20% to less than 8% (Chen et al., 2021). One consulting firm estimated a loss
of $36 billion in revenue in the semiconductor industry alone (Woo, 2020).
COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS
The policies governing platform market access in the United States and China were initially
very different, but the sequence outlined here shows converging methods and policies in key
areas. In both cases, national security concerns are the key drivers. The differences in
policies seems to stem from differences in their bargaining power, domestic institutional
capacity, and state objectives.
China restricts the platform market because its government considers control of its
population's access to information and communication a critical aspect of national security.
China's one‐party state does not believe it can survive free public political discussion, open
dissent, or autonomous business and civil society associations that might lead to political
competition. This explains why e‐commerce and ride‐sharing were far more open to foreign
investment and competition. It has become increasingly wary of free flows of business data
among corporations employing cloud providers, as well.
China defines sovereignty as the supreme control of a single party, which it maintains by
excluding unapproved information sources and by regulating and controlling the suppliers of
information services to Chinese people. Insofar as China's digital economy policies are
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362 | MUELLER AND FARHAT
D I G I T A L N E O‐M E R C A N T I L I S M
Digital neo‐mercantilism is the label we apply to the American and Chinese policies
governing trade in platform‐delivered information services. The current United States–China
conflict is fundamentally about power competition but brings into play trade and industrial
policy, tech policy, cybersecurity, intellectual property, and foreign and military policy. The
concept of digital neo‐mercantilism integrates all these areas of United States–China
interaction by conceiving of them as a conflict between two systems of political economy
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POLICY & INTERNET | 363
striving for relative power. In their pursuit of this goal, both China and the U.S. recognize that
a thriving economy is a crucial component of their national power, necessitating some
economic interdependence and trade; but both also recognize that interdependence can be
a vulnerability. In their analysis of “weaponized interdependence,” Gertz and Evers (2020,
p. 131) come close to identifying one of the central assumptions of digital neo‐mercantilism,
without using the term. They assert, “close, cooperative relations between businesses and
the government act as a force multiplier—state power increases when firms are aligned with
state goals and eager and willing to work hand‐in‐hand with the government to
achieve them.”
This fusion of economic and strategic aims describes what is currently happening but it is
not, as Gertz and Evers imply, an inevitable outcome of the current situation, nor is it
necessarily an effective policy. Its implication that the actions of firms can be easily aligned
with the strategic aims of states without undermining their productivity and efficiency is
almost certainly false. The destruction of Alibaba's financial innovations to preserve the
Communist Party's grip on banking is just one of many possible example. If the Huawei
incident teaches us anything, it is that when private firms are seen as agents of a foreign
state, their ability to expand into new markets will be blocked and their access to the most
advanced technical components will be restricted. As Farrell and Newman (2019, pp.
76–77) argue, the more that states weaponize interdependence, the more other states will
take actions that weaken or undermine the cooperative features of the international system.
Trying to weld techno‐economic progress to state power will sacrifice untold potential gains
from trade, as supply chains, R&D efforts, talent recruitment and market scale and scope
fragment and shrink.
U.S. policy on Huawei fits the pattern of weaponized interdependence perfectly. The
U.S. saw a potential threat in the emergence of a strong Chinese telecom infrastructure
vendor with a global presence, and sought to pre‐empt its rise by exploiting Huawei's
dependence on American semiconductor technology. As a result, U.S. rural telecommu-
nications companies were denied access to inexpensive equipment and the U.S.
government spent billions to “rip and replace” pieces of their infrastructure. China
responded by doubling down on its self‐sufficiency and information protection policies.
Mercantilism is normally associated with narrower ideas about trade policy. Those
unfamiliar with its full historical context tend to see it as the pursuit of trade surpluses. Our
conception draws on a more historically grounded understanding that includes its political as
well as economic dimension. Economic historian Magnussen (2015, p. 48) has redefined the
original mercantilism as
The changing “political formulations” he refers to is the rise of larger territorial states,
which was associated with disruption of prior empires and with more organized, large‐scale
trading relations among the states governing them. This is why the German historicist
scholar Gustav Schmoller claimed that mercantilism was “state‐making and national
economy making at the same time” (Magnussen, 2015, p. 21). Contrary to Adam Smith's
rent‐seeking explanation for mercantilism, Magnussen (2015, pp. 174–176) states that
“National economic expansion and increased state control was most probably a more
persistent motive behind the aggressive and war‐like 'politics of mercantilism' than the
private interest of moneyed merchants.” It is this fusion of the economy with the political and
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364 | MUELLER AND FARHAT
military interests of the state that is characteristic of neo‐mercantilism and explains why we
think the label fits the United States–China situation. (The label is also a fun counterfoil to
the repetitive, increasingly dated assaults on neo‐liberalism in many academic circles.)
We call this way of thinking digital neo‐mercantilism because both sides believe that a
rapidly digitizing ICT sector is changing the parameters of what is required to play a
dominant role in the global order.18 The capabilities of big data, artificial intelligence,
software, networks, and information processing create new forms of wealth, new forms of
interdependence, new vulnerabilities to foreign systems of political economy, as well as new
opportunities to gain relative power advantages.
To conclude, the substantial platform economies of the United States and China are
being decoupled from each other and subjected to greater controls, all in the name of a
contest for relative geopolitical power. This zero‐sum competition over relative power is
based on assumptions that ICT capabilities, industrial policy, and trade have the potential to
affect prosperity and shift relative power relations among states. Many of these assumptions
are questionable; both parties are probably overstating the importance of digital technology
“leadership” by national economies and drastically underestimating the importance of
globalized competitive markets, information sharing, and an international division of labor in
advancing and deploying digital technology. But the digital world awaits a 21st century Adam
Smith to provide a full normative and positive assessment of digital neo‐mercantilism.
ORCID
Milton L. Mueller http://orcid.org/0000-0002-9114-8259
ENDNOTES
1
Market capitalization is a company's stock price multiplied by the number of shares. Market cap data is sourced
from the NYSE, NASDAQ, and Hong Kong stock exchanges. An ongoing listing of the market capitalization of
“tech companies” can be found here, https://companiesmarketcap.com/tech/largest‐tech-companies-by-market-
cap/. However, not all tech companies are platforms as defined here; e.g., Tesla, equipment and semicondutor
manufacturers and other hardware firms have been removed from the ranking).
2
Speaking of Yahoo!'s first attempt at a partnership with a local firm Decker (2014) wrote: “Headquarters took
toolong to approve locally generated ideas, and as a consequence, Chinese competitors were beating us with
rapidly‐turned‐out products that were tuned for the local market.”
3
Value‐added telecom services have a 50% foreign ownership limit, excluding e‐commerce. In basic
telecommunication services the Chinese partner must be controlling. Banks limit foreign shares to 25%.
4
The arrest of activist Jiang Lijun in 2002 and the imprisonment of journalist Shi Tao in 2005 are widely attributed
to Yahoo!'s cooperation with the authorities. Yahoo! later settled a lawsuit related to this.
5
“Skype removed from China Apple and Android app stores,” BBC News (online) Published 22 November 2017.
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-42076033
6
As in other parts of the world, taxi drivers complained that they had lost a substantial portion of their business,
and taxi strikes proliferated in several cities. Local authorities in Chengdu and Guangzhou raided Uber offices in
response to the questionable legality of People's Uber. Drivers who benefited from Uber's gig economy mounted
protests: “In Chengdu last month, hundreds of Uber drivers lashed out at the local traffic police after one driver's
car was impounded.” (Mozur & Isaac 2015).
7
The acquisition gave Uber a 5.89% stake in the combined Chinese company and provided the Chinese firm with
a minority equity interest in Uber.
8
See, for example, Yang Jie and Lisa Lin, “Amazon Sells Hardware to Cloud Partner in China—Amazon Web
Services says rule change by Chinese government prompted the sale of its computing equipment.” Wall Street
Journal, 11/14/2017 From https://www.wsj.com/articles/amazon-to-sell-its-china-cloud-computing-business-
1510628802
9
The launch of the Trump administration's tariff war in 2017 ended Alibaba's interest in facilitating United
States–China trade.
10
See Healey (2019) for a lurid and imaginative expression of this attitude.
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POLICY & INTERNET | 365
11
Huawei, “Annual Report 2008” (Shenzhen, China: 2009), p. 2, https://www.huawei.com/ucmf/groups/public/
documents/annual_report/092581.pdf
12
Reuters. (2011). Huawei backs away from 3Leaf acquisition. [online]. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-
huawei-3leaf/huawei-backs-away-from-3leaf-acquisition-idUSTRE71I38920110219
13
Ironically, China's Military‐Civil Fusion plans, which Washington regarded as part of its grand strategy to
dominate in high‐tech industries, were deemed by China itself as unsuccessful. China's 13th five‐year plan
states: “we must soberly realize that China still faces some problems in the development of S&T military‐civil
fusion” (National Development and Reform Commission [NDRC], 2020).
14
U.S. Justice Department news release, June 17, 2020. https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/team-telecom-
recommends-fcc-deny-pacific-light-cable-network-system-s-hong-kong-undersea
15
Executive Order No. 13943. 85 FR 48641, (2020). [online]. https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2020/08/
11/2020-17700/addressing-the-threat-posed-by-wechat-and-taking-additional-steps-to-address-the-national-
emergency
16
Court decision available at: https://rbgg.com/wp-content/uploads/20-16908_Documents.pdf
17
Executive Order No. 14034. 86 FR 31423, June 2021. Protecting Americans' sensitive data from foreign adversaries
[online]. https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2021/06/11/2021-12506/protecting-americans-sensitive-data-
from-foreign-adversaries
18
Some accounts refer to the trade and development policies of Germany in the 19th century as “neo‐
mercantilism” (Cohn, 2016). Revivals of mercantilist ideas and approaches have gone through cycles. Our
association of neo‐mercantilism with the digital economy is sufficient to differentiate it from earlier versions. See
Wallerstein, 2011 for another use of the label.
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Policy & Internet, 14, 348–367. https://doi.org/10.1002/poi3.305