Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Full Chapter Why Fiscal Stimulus Programs Fail Volume 1 The Limits of Accommodative Monetary Policy in Practice 1St Edition John J Heim PDF
Full Chapter Why Fiscal Stimulus Programs Fail Volume 1 The Limits of Accommodative Monetary Policy in Practice 1St Edition John J Heim PDF
https://textbookfull.com/product/why-fiscal-stimulus-programs-
fail-volume-2-statistical-tests-comparing-monetary-policy-to-
growth-effects-1st-edition-john-j-heim/
https://textbookfull.com/product/crowding-out-fiscal-stimulus-
testing-the-effectiveness-of-us-government-stimulus-programs-1st-
edition-john-j-heim-auth/
https://textbookfull.com/product/macroeconomic-policy-after-the-
crash-issues-in-monetary-and-fiscal-policy-1st-edition-richard-
barwell-auth/
https://textbookfull.com/product/an-econometric-model-of-the-us-
economy-structural-analysis-in-56-equations-john-j-heim/
An Econometric Model of the US Economy: Structural
Analysis in 56 Equations 1st Edition John J. Heim
(Auth.)
https://textbookfull.com/product/an-econometric-model-of-the-us-
economy-structural-analysis-in-56-equations-1st-edition-john-j-
heim-auth/
https://textbookfull.com/product/the-assessment-of-learning-in-
engineering-education-practice-and-policy-1st-edition-john-
heywood/
https://textbookfull.com/product/why-democracies-flounder-and-
fail-michael-haas/
https://textbookfull.com/product/the-practice-of-industrial-
policy-government-business-coordination-in-africa-and-1st-
edition-john-page/
https://textbookfull.com/product/biota-grow-2c-gather-2c-cook-
loucas/
Why Fiscal Stimulus Programs
Fail, Volume 1
The Limits of Accommodative
Monetary Policy in Practice
John J. Heim
Why Fiscal Stimulus Programs Fail, Volume 1
John J. Heim
© The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer
Nature Switzerland AG 2021
This work is subject to copyright. All rights are solely and exclusively licensed by the
Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights
of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on
microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and
retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology
now known or hereafter developed.
The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc.
in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such
names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for
general use.
The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and informa-
tion in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither
the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, expressed or implied, with
respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been
made. The publisher remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps
and institutional affiliations.
This Palgrave Macmillan imprint is published by the registered company Springer Nature
Switzerland AG
The registered company address is: Gewerbestrasse 11, 6330 Cham, Switzerland
To Roger Porter,
brilliant economist, policy analyst and advisor to presidents,
and also one of Harvard’s best teachers.
Preface
This is the third of a five book series on the science underlying Keynesian
mechanics and the scientific basis for its policy prescriptions. In all these
books, results found in testing in one period of time, are discarded unless
they can be replicated in most others as far back as 1960, ensuring that our
results are good science, not just attractive—sounding theories or random
statistical results resulting from testing one model on one period of time.
The need for a series of science books like this is obvious: over 80
years ago Keynes coined his famous theory that the economy was funda-
mentally demand, not supply, driven, and that because of this, deficit
financed government fiscal spending and tax cut programs could stim-
ulate the economy. Yet, to this day, there is no unanimity of agreement
within the economics profession as to whether they work. This, I believe,
is because positions economists hold on the issue are not generally empiri-
cally based at all, but based on theory alone, or based on endless numbers
of sophomoric empirical studies of (say) investment, with no two models
tested containing the same variables, or for more than one time period.
Nary a thought given to the fact that you don’t have a scientific result
unless you have replicated; i.e., verified that the same model yields the
same results in all or almost all time periods.
If this continues to be the way economics is done, evaluation of
whether economics policies work will not have a sufficiently scientific basis
vii
viii PREFACE
to finance the deficit. This book concludes the main reason fiscal stimulus
programs haven’t worked was the systematic decisions by the Fed, from
1960 to 2007, not too increase bank reserves, i.e., implement accom-
modative monetary policy, to anywhere near the extent needed to offset
the deficit.
Other problems limiting the effectiveness of the Feds accommodative
actions were its stubborn insistence on implementing the accommodative
policy though securities purchases mainly from investment banks, who
sell securities mainly to raise money to buy other securities, not to finance
consumer and business loans to buy real goods and services, which is the
business of retail commercial and savings banks.
This third book also looks at whether endogenous growth in the loan-
able funds pool, due to rising incomes and saving, or an increasing
marginal propensity to save, could help offset the crowd out problem
caused by deficits, and concludes it can. This explains why in some
periods, fiscal stimulus programs seem to work, despite inadequate Federal
Reserve action to increase the pool, while in others they don’t. Hence,
depending on the period picked, it provides good evidence for economists
on either side of the argument about the effectiveness of Keynesian
stimulus programs. It helps provide an explanation why the economics
profession has found it so hard to become of one mind on this topic.
Two additional books are planned for the future, with a goal of
providing in the five books strong enough empirical evidence on what
works and what doesn’t, to constitute an engineering—quality manual
on how the economy works, thereby getting macroeconomics out of this
deductive/faux empirical quagmire it has been in the last few decades.
The fourth book, which is nearly finished, explores in great detail how
well different combinations of increases in loanable funds, some by
the Fed, some endogenous, actually offset crowd out problems. It also
tests different definitions of loanable funds to see which works best. It
concludes the total national savings plus foreign borrowing provides the
best definition of loanable funds. It also concludes endogenous growth
is generally much more effective than Federal Reserve-induced (exoge-
nous) growth, presumably because it is more likely to be used for loans
to purchase real goods and services, and not the result of liquidity added
to the system mainly used to buy other securities.
Th fifth book, not yet stated, will be an effort to determine if the “neo-
classical synthesis”, the theory most commonly used to show how the
x PREFACE
economy melds from the Keynesian short run into the classical long run
can be empirically verified to exist.
When completed, I hope these five books will provide good reason to
reclassify macroeconomics from a series of different, essentially deductive
philosophies, poorly grounded in empirics, into a branch of engineering.
Toward that end, we may be making progress: The first citation of the 56
equation econometric model book was in an engineering journal spon-
sored by the Institute of Physics and dealt with production functions.
Engineers do a lot of economics. It is a good sign the engineering field
is finding it can confidently rely on replicable economic studies developed
using the scientific method.
xi
xii CONTENTS
4.1.1 Overview 81
4.1.2 Detailed Analysis of the Crowd Out
and Accommodative Monetary Policy
Processes 83
Accommodative Federal Reserve Purchases
from Depository Institutions 83
Federal Reserve Purchases
from Non-depository Institutions 84
4.2 A Formal Model of the Effects of Fiscal
Stimulus Programs, Their Crowd Out Effects,
and Accommodative Monetary Policy 87
4.2.1 Crowd Out Effects of Deficit Financing 89
4.2.2 How Accommodating Monetary Policy
Offsets Crowd Out Effects 90
4.2.3 Different Crowd Out Effects of Tax Cut
and Spending Deficits 94
Alternative Ways of Modeling Crowd Out
Effects 96
4.2.4 Declining Deficits Create “Crowd in”
Effects 102
4.2.5 Should We Use Accommodate Monetary
Policy to Offset Crowd Out? 103
References 105
5 A Simplified Balance Sheet View of How Open
Market Operations to Stimulate the Economy, When
Dominated by Primary Dealers, Actually Stimulate
Securities Markets, not the Real Economy 107
5.1 When the FR Goes into the Open Market and Buys
$1000 in Treasuries (T) from a Dealer/Broker
(Usually a “Primary Dealer”), The Dealer May
Be Paid by Check Drawn on the FR (FRck) (If
Dealer Is Paid Electronically by Fed Transfer
of Funds to Dealer’s Bank, Skip Steps 5.1–3 and Go
to Step #5.4) 108
5.2 Dealer #1Deposits FR Check in Dealer’s Own Bank 108
5.3 Bond Dealer’s Bank Cashes in the FRck at the Fed.
Assume Required Reserve Ratio (RR) = 10%
and Let Excess Reserves = (ER) 108
xiv CONTENTS
References 389
19 Does M1 or Total Loanable Funds Better Measure
Offset Effects to Crowd Out? 391
19.1 Comparing Unmodified, LF Modified, and M1
Modified Deficit Variables 395
19.2 Adding a Separate, Stand-Alone M1 Variable
to the Model 400
19.3 A Note on the Relationship of National Savings
to M1 405
19.4 Summary of Results and Conclusions 407
References 410
Index 573
List of Figures
xxv
List of Tables
xxvii
xxviii LIST OF TABLES
Language: Italian
CESARE CANTÙ
EDIZIONE POPOLARE
RIVEDUTA DALL'AUTORE E PORTATA FINO AGLI ULTIMI EVENTI
TOMO XIII.
TORINO
UNIONE TIPOGRAFICO-EDITRICE
1877
INDICE
LIBRO DECIMOSESTO
CAPITOLO CLXXV.
La Rivoluzione francese.