Probability and Stochastic Process Report

Use Of Probability and Distribution in Reliability Engineering

Table of Contents
Probability and Stochastic Process Report .................................................................................................................................. 1
Use Of Probability and Distribution in Reliability Engineering .................................................................................................. 1
1. What is Reliability? ............................................................................................................................................................ 1
2. How is Reliability related to probability? ........................................................................................................................... 2
3. What is reliability engineering? .......................................................................................................................................... 2
4. Physics Of Failure............................................................................................................................................................... 2
4.1 Fault Trees.................................................................................................................................................................... 3
4.2 Bayesian network ......................................................................................................................................................... 4
5. Example 1: .......................................................................................................................................................................... 4
5.1 Solution: ....................................................................................................................................................................... 5
6. Example 2: .......................................................................................................................................................................... 6
6.1 Solution: ....................................................................................................................................................................... 6
7. Example 3: .......................................................................................................................................................................... 7
7.1 Solution: ....................................................................................................................................................................... 7
8. Conclusion: ......................................................................................................................................................................... 8
9. References: ......................................................................................................................................................................... 8

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 1. What is reliability?
Reliability is a term used to describe the ability of a component or system to meet
Certain performance standards over a certain period of time, assuming normal
Operating conditions.
Since no one can predict the future and guarantee that a product won’t fail for exactly x hours of use, calculating
reliability comes with a dose of uncertainty that is expressed in the form of probability. Among other things, we
can use reliability calculation to estimate what is the chance that a system will work properly after x hours or
days of use. Naturally, the reliability of any system will be high in the beginning and decline over time.

2. How is reliability related to probability?

The reliability of a device or system is considered high if it had repeatedly performed its function with success
and low if it had tended to fail in repeated trials.
The reliability of a system is defined as the probability of performing the intended function over a given period
of time under specified operating conditions.
The above definition can be broken down into four parts:

 Probability
 Intended function
 Given period of time
 Specified operating conditions

Probability: because, the reliability is a probability, the reliability of system rj is governed by the equation 0≤ rs
≤ 1. The equality sign holds good in case of equipment called one shot equipment.

3. What is reliability engineering?

Reliability engineering refers to the systematic application of best engineering practices and techniques to make
more reliable products in a cost-effective manner. Reliability engineering methodology can be applied across the
product lifecycle from design and manufacturing to operation and maintenance.
The goals of reliability engineering are as follows:

 To use engineering knowledge and techniques to prevent certain failure modes and to reduce the
likelihood and frequency of failures.
 To identify and correct the causes of failures that do occur, despite the efforts to prevent them.
 To determine ways of dealing with failures that do occur, if their causes have not been corrected.
 To apply methods for estimating the likely reliability of new designs and for analysing reliability
data.

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 4. Physics of failure
The "physics of failure" (pof) is a methodology used in reliability engineering to understand the underlying
physical processes that lead to system failure. Instead of solely relying on historical failure data, pof seeks to
model the degradation and failure mechanisms of components or systems based on their physical properties and
operating conditions, allowing for more informed decision-making in reliability engineering, design
optimization, and maintenance planning.
Pof involves the following three processes-

1. Understanding failure mechanisms: identifying the physical processes that cause degradation or
failure in components or systems. This involves analysing factors such as material properties,
environmental conditions, stressors (like temperature, vibration, etc.), and operational usage.
2. Modelling degradation: developing mathematical or computational models to simulate the
degradation processes over time. These models often incorporate physics-based equations to
predict how various stressors affect the material properties and performance of the system.
3. Predicting failure: using the degradation models to predict when and how failures are likely to
occur based on the observed degradation rates and operating conditions. This allows for
proactive maintenance and design improvements to mitigate potential failures.

Physics of failure deals with failure of individual components, however to calculate overall reliability of the
system, we must aggregate the findings.
Overall, the physics of failure approach provides a deeper understanding of the root causes of failures, allowing
for more informed decision-making in reliability engineering, design optimization, and maintenance planning.
To derive comprehensive results from individual pof findings we can apply one of the following methods-

1. Aggregation approach
2. Inclusive relationship finding aggregation
3. Complementary relationship finding aggregation
4. Interrelated relationship finding aggregation
5. Aggregation assistance

Complementary relationship finding approach is used when the probability finding of likelihood of failure of
one event does not affect the likelihood of failure of the other. But the events may be dependant or independent.
To find aggregated results from independent events, we either use fault tress or bayesian network, and to get it
for dependant events, we find interrelated or inclusive aggregation.
4.1 fault trees
The fault tree is constructed with the envisioned aggregated result as the top-level event. This means that the top
event represents the combined outcome we're interested in, such as the overall probability of failure for a
system. The independent probability findings are represented as subordinate failure events. These subordinate
events are combined logically using the or function, which means that the top-level event occurs if any of the
subordinate events occur.
P(a∪b) =p(a)+p(b)−p(a∩b)
But since the events are independent,
P(a∩b) =0. Therefore,
P(a∪b) =p(a)+p(b)

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 4.2 bayesian network
A bayesian network represents probabilistic relationships among a set of variables. It is used to model the causes
of a failure event. Each cause (c) is represented as a node in the network, and the failure event (e) is the outcome
we're interested in.
To evaluate the bayesian network, we need to consider all possible combinations of causes that could lead to the
failure event. For each permutation of causes, we calculate the probability of the failure event given those causes
being present. We then multiply this probability by the probability of each cause being present (p(c)) and the
probability of the non-existence of the other causes (1 - p(c') where c' represents the set of causes not included in
the permutation). Finally, we sum the results of these calculations across all permutations to obtain the overall
probability of the failure event.
P(e)=∑all permutations of causesp(e∣c1) ×p(c1) ×(1−p(c2)) ×(1−p(c3)) ×…
Where:

 P(e) is the overall probability of the failure event.

 P(e∣c1) is the probability of the failure event given cause c1 is present.
 P(c1) is the probability of cause c1 being present.

1−p(c2)) ×(1−p(c3)) ×… represents the probability of the non-existence of the other causes not included in the
permutation.
Here is an example to explain the two methods-
A system is planning to use a proven and well-known terrestrial component (ps = 0.8 at the mission duration) in
a space application, and it has been determined via radiation susceptibility testing, that the probability of failure
from radiation, pf, equals 0.7. In this case the analyst would be able to assume that the terrestrial and radiation
failure mechanisms are independent or disjointed.
Let’s look at a few more real-life problems where reliability engineering is required.

5. Example 1:
In "skyline towers," a 20-story building in a coastal city, there are 12 rooms per floor. Each room is equipped
with 250 tiles. However, the probability of tile cracking varies not only by floor but also by room location within
the floor.

 Floors 19 and 20: each tile has a probability of 0.25 of cracking due to high winds and salt
exposure.
 Floors 15 to 18: tiles on these floors experience a probability of 0.18 of cracking due to
temperature fluctuations.
 Floors 10 to 14: these floors have a unique problem - the building's foundation settling, causing
vibrations, giving each tile a 0.12 probability of cracking.
 Floors 5 to 9: these floors face occasional flooding during monsoon seasons, increasing the
likelihood of tile cracking to 0.20.
 Floors 1 to 4: being closer to ground level, these floors encounter more foot traffic, resulting in a
higher probability of 0.15 for tile cracking.

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 5.1 solution:

 Floors 19 and 20: probability = 0.25

 Floors 15 to 18: probability = 0.18
 Floors 10 to 14: probability = 0.12
 Floors 5 to 9: probability = 0.20
 Floors 1 to 4: probability = 0.15

Next, we need to determine the distribution of rooms on each floor. Since each floor has 12 rooms and there are
20 floors, there are a total of 240 rooms.
Let’s calculate the weighted average:
Poverall = (p19-20) ×2 + (p15-18) ×4 + (p10-14) ×5 + (p5-p9) ×5 + (p1-4) ×4
20
Poverall = (0.25) ×2 + (0.18) ×4 + (0.12) ×5 + (0.20) ×5 + (0.15) ×4
20
Poverall = 0.5 + 0.72 + 0.60 + 1 + 0.60
20
Poverall = 3.42
20
Poverall = 0.171

Hence there is a probability of 0.171 that all the tiles will crack.
Also, let us consider that all the tiles crack in summer, so if all the tiles crack and cost of one tile is 129 inr
= 20 floors x 12 rooms per floor x 250 tiles in each room x 129 inr
= 77,40,00

Let us calculate the reliability coefficient (r) of this building, which is

= 1-probability of failure
= 1- 0.171
= 0.829
If we refer the chart below, it can be seen that the reliability level of ‘skyline towers’ is overall good.

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 6. Example 2:
The thermosense company produces digital thermometers that have a 0°c midpoint, which is the reading
expected at the freezing point of water. In actual testing of a large number of thermometers, the temperature at
freezing point fluctuates around the 0°c from negative values (below 0°c) to positive values (above 0°c). The
temperature follows a normal distribution with a mean value of 0°c and a standard deviation of 1°c.
If one thermometer is randomly selected-
I)find the probability that, at the freezing point of water, the reading is more than -1.2°c.
Ii)find the probability that, at the freezing point of water, the reading is less than 0.5°c.

6.1 solution:
I) standardize the value of -1.2°c using the z-score formula:
𝑧= 𝑥−𝜇
𝜎
Where:

 𝑥 is the value (-1.2°c),

 𝜇 is the mean (0°c), and
 𝜎 is the standard deviation (1°c).

𝑧= −1.2−0
1
= -1.2

Now, you need to find the cumulative probability to the right of 𝑧=−1.2 using a standard normal distribution
table or a calculator.
From the standard normal distribution table,
The probability corresponding to 𝑧=1.2 is approximately 0.8849.

Therefore, z= -1.2 = p(x>1.2) = 0.8849.

So, the probability that, at the freezing point of water, the reading is more than -1.2°c is approximately 0.8849.

ii) standardize the value of 0.5°c using the z-score formula:

𝑧= 𝑥−𝜇
𝜎
Where:

 𝑥 is the value (0.5°c),

 𝜇 is the mean (0°c), and
 𝜎 is the standard deviation (1°c).
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𝑧= 0.5−0
1
= 0.5

Now, you need to find the cumulative probability to the right of 𝑧=0.5 using a standard normal distribution table
or a calculator.From the standard normal distribution table, the probability corresponding to 𝑧=0.5 is
approximately 0.6915.

So, the probability that, at the freezing point of water, the reading is less than 0.5°c is approximately 0.6915.

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 7. Example 3:
A manufacturing company produces a certain type of electronic component. The components are expected to
follow the exponential distribution for their failure times. The company tested a sample of 50 components and
found that the average time to failure was 200 hours with a standard deviation of 30 hours. Determine the
reliability of these components at 500 hours of operation.

7.1 solution:
Given data:
- sample size (n) = 50 components
- average time to failure (mean, μ) = 200 hours
- standard deviation (σ) = 30 hours
- time at which reliability is to be determined (t) = 500 hours
The pdf of the exponential distribution is given by:
Pdf= λ e^(λt), where λ (lambda) is the failure rate parameter
Μ=1/λ
Σ = 1 / λ^2
So, λ = 1 / μ.

Substituting the given mean, μ = 200 hours, we get:

Λ = 1 / 200 = 0.005 per hour.
Now, we use the reliability function of the exponential distribution to find the reliability (r) at 500 hours:
The reliability function is: r(t) = e^-λt
Substituting t = 500 hours and λ = 0.005 per hour, we get:

R (500) = e^-0.005*500
= 0.0821

Therefore, the reliability of the components at 500 hours of operation is approximately 0.0821 or 8.21%. This
means that there is an 8.21% chance that a component will still be operational after 500 hours of use.

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8. Conclusion:
In conclusion, probability plays a pivotal role in reliability engineering, serving as a cornerstone for assessing
and managing risks associated with system failures. By quantifying uncertainties and likelihoods, probability
enables engineers to make informed decisions about design, maintenance, and operation strategies to enhance
system reliability. It provides a systematic framework for analysing failure modes, predicting component
lifetimes, and optimizing resource allocation, thereby minimizing downtime, improving safety, and maximizing
performance. Embracing probability empowers reliability engineers to proactively mitigate potential failures,
ultimately contributing to the longevity and dependability of complex systems across various industries.

9. References:
[1] limble[online]. Available:
[https://limblecmms.com/blog/reliability-engineering/]. Accessed [18/4/24]

[2] nasa [online]. Available:

[https://ntrs.nasa.gov/api/citations/20230004376/downloads/pof_%20handbook%20final%20version%20(1.0.2).
pdf]. Accessed [18/4/24]

[3] slideshare[online]. Available:

[https://www.slideshare.net/slideshow/probability-distribution-in-r/161918681]. Accessed [19/4/24]

[4] slideshare[online]. Available:

[https://www.slideshare.net/slideshow/probability-distributions-for-continuous-variables/57577281]. Accessed
[20/4/24]