Table of Contents

Cover
Title Page
Copyright Page
1 Sustainable Building
1.1 Building Functions
1.2 Building Elements
1.3 Definition of Sustainable Building
1.4 Origin and Significance of Sustainable Building
1.5 Sustainable Principles
1.6 Three‐Layer Design Approach
1.7 Three‐Tier Design Approach
1.8 Two Case Studies
Homework Problems
References
2 Life Cycle Cost Analysis
2.1 Life Phases of a Building
2.2 Design Process of a Building
2.3 Integrated Design Process of a Sustainable
Building
2.4 Basics of Cost and Economic Analysis
2.5 Life Cycle Cost Analysis
2.6 Life Cycle Cost Analysis Based Optimization
Homework Problems
3 Building Standards and Codes
3.1 Impacts of Building Codes
3.2 Types of Design Regulations
 3.3 Integrative Use of All
Homework Problems
References
4 Air Properties and Psychrometric Chart
4.1 Air Composition
4.2 Moist Air and Its Properties
4.3 Construction of a Psychrometric Chart
Homework Problems
5 Climate and Site Analysis
5.1 Climate Analysis
5.2 Heating and Cooling Design Climatic Data
5.3 Site Analysis
Homework Problems
6 Indoor Thermal Comfort
6.1 Indoor Environment Quality
6.2 Indoor Thermal Comfort
6.3 Comfort Zone
6.4 Approaches to Improving Indoor Thermal
Comfort
6.5 Other Thermal Comfort Factors
Homework Problems
References
7 Indoor Air Quality, Ventilation, and Infiltration
7.1 Indoor Air Quality
7.2 Ventilation
7.3 Air Purification
7.4 Infiltration
7.5 Blower Door Test
 Homework Problems
References
8 Heat Transfer through Building Envelope
8.1 Latent Heat Transfer
8.2 Sensible Heat Transfer
8.3 Practical Heat Transfer through Building
Envelope
8.4 Ground Heat Transfer
Homework Problems
9 Sun and Solar Radiation
9.1 Sun and Solar
9.2 Solar Angles
9.3 Sky Dome and Sun‐Path Diagrams
9.4 Solar Shading
9.5 Solar Radiation on External Walls
9.6 Solar Radiation on Windows
Homework Problems
10 Passive Building Systems
10.1 Introduction
10.2 Overview of Passive Cooling
10.3 Overview of Passive Heating
10.4 Prescreening Feasibility of Passive Cooling
and Heating Techniques
10.5 Natural Ventilation
10.6 Night Cooling with Thermal Mass
10.7 Direct/Indirect Evaporative Cooling
10.8 Trombe Wall
10.9 Sunspace
10.10 Double Skin Façade
 10.11 Phase Change Material
Homework Problems
References
11 Building Load Calculation
11.1 Residential and Light Commercial Buildings
11.2 Commercial Buildings
Homework Problems
12 Heating, Cooling, and Ventilation Systems
12.1 Basics of Heating and Cooling Systems
12.2 Basics of Heating and Cooling Distribution
Systems
12.3 Heating and Cooling on Psychrometric Chart
12.4 Central HVAC Systems on Psychrometric
Chart
12.5 Coil Sizing and Selection
Homework Problems
Reference
13 Building Energy Consumption
13.1 Manual Calculation
13.2 Computer Simulation
Homework Problems
References
14 Building Energy Analysis and Optimization
14.1 Overview
14.2 Simulation Tools
14.3 Benchmark Model Development
14.4 Parametric Analysis
14.5 Energy Efficiency Measures
14.6 Initial Optimization
 14.7 Sensitivity Analysis
14.8 Second Optimization and Recommendations
14.9 Conclusions
Homework Problems
References
Index
End User License Agreement

List of Tables
Chapter 1
Table 1.1 Design strategies in three‐tier design
approach.
Chapter 3
Table 3.1 Comparison of environmental assessment
methods.
Table 3.2 Comparison of environmental assessment
phases.
Chapter 4
Table 4.1 Saturation properties for steam –
temperature table.
Table 4.2 Saturation properties for steam –
pressure table.
Chapter 5
Table 5.1 TMY3 data header (line 1).
Table 5.2 TMY3 data header (line 2).
Table 5.3 TMY3 data field.
Table 5.4 Annual heating and cooling design
conditions (in IP unit) for Den...
 Table 5.5 Monthly heating and cooling design
conditions (in IP unit) for De...
Table 5.6 Annual heating and cooling design
conditions (in SI unit) for som...
Chapter 6
Table 6.1 Metabolic rates for typical activities.
Table 6.2 Clothing insulation Icl values for typical
ensembles.
Table 6.3 Garment insulation Icl.
Table 6.4 Coefficients for Equation (6.17).
Table 6.5 Optimal operative temperature and
acceptable range for light sede...
Table 6.6 Applicability of methods for determining
acceptable thermal envir...
Table 6.7 Allowable radiant temperature asymmetry
Table 6.8 Limits on temperature drifts and ramps.
Chapter 7
Table 7.1 Sources, permitted levels, and health
effects of IAQ contaminants...
Table 7.2 Indoor air quality regulations for major
indoor air pollutants....
Table 7.3 PM10 and 2.5 standards.
Table 7.4 Ventilation requirements for residential
buildings on a floor are...
Table 7.5 Minimum ventilation rate requirements
for office buildings.
Table 7.6 Zone air distribution effectiveness Ez for
different air distribu...
 Table 7.7 Mechanisms, advantages, and
disadvantages of various air cleaning...
Table 7.8 MERV rating and efficiency and filter type
and removed particles....
Table 7.9 Applications for air filters with different
MERV ratings.
Table 7.10 Terrain parameters for standard terrain
classes.
Table 7.11 Generalized shielding coefficients.
Chapter 8
Table 8.1 Density and thermal conductivity of some
common building material...
Table 8.2 Empirical correlations for the average
Nusselt number for forced ...
Table 8.3 Empirical correlations for the average
Nusselt number for forced ...
Table 8.4 Empirical correlations for the average
Nusselt number for natural...
Table 8.5 Empirical correlations for the average
Nusselt number for natural...
Table 8.6 Range of practical convection
coefficients.
Table 8.7 Emissivity of some common building
materials at specified tempera...
Table 8.8 Surface conductances and resistances for
air.
Table 8.9 Typical thermal properties (design values)
of common building and...
 Table 8.10 Thermal resistance of plane air spaces
(m2·K/W).
Table 8.11 Emittance values of various surfaces and
effective emittances of...
Table 8.12 Heat loss coefficient Fp of slab floor
construction.
Table 8.13 Average U‐factor for basement walls
with uniform insulation.
Table 8.14 Average U‐factor for basement floor.
Chapter 9
Table 9.1 U values for several fenestration products
(W/m2·K).
Table 9.2 U values of representative fenestration
frames in vertical orient...
Table 9.3 SHGC and other property values for
several glazings and windows....
Chapter 10
Table 10.1 Heat transfer mechanisms and sources
for passive cooling and hea...
Table 10.2 Prescreening checklist for feasibility of
using passive strategi...
Table 10.3 Classification and properties of PCMs.
Table 10.4 Illustration of a few passive and active
PCMs applications in bu...
Chapter 11
Table 11.1 CLTD values for single‐family detached
residences. a
 Table 11.2 Window glass load factors for single‐
family detached residences.
Table 11.3 Cooling load factors for people and
unhooded equipment (ASHRAE F...
Chapter 12
Table 12.1 Advantages and disadvantages of
various heating systems.
Table 12.2 Advantages and disadvantages of
various distribution systems.
Chapter 13
Table 13.1 Degree hours for 1 January.
Table 13.2 Comparison of major features and
capabilities of three ES progra...
Table 13.3 Bang & Olufsen headquarters
information.
Chapter 14
Table 14.1 Office envelope and window
construction standards.
Table 14.2 Office building HVAC components and
standards.
Table 14.3 Office building loads and set points.
Table 14.4 Annual end‐use energy intensity.
Table 14.5 Recommended energy efficiency
measures.
Table 14.6 End‐use energy reduction potential by
category.

List of Illustrations
Chapter 1
Figure 1.1 Maslow's hierarchy of needs theory
(https://www.simplypsychology....
Figure 1.2 Architectural ecosystem.
Figure 1.3 US total energy consumption by end‐use
sector (https://www.turbom...
Figure 1.4 US electricity consumption by sector
(https://www.epa.gov/energy/...
Figure 1.5 US energy consumption by source and
sector (https://www.eia.gov/e...
Figure 1.6 Construction material consumptions
(http://www.oecd.org/newsroom/...
Figure 1.7 Estimated productivity‐related benefits
by green buildings.
Figure 1.8 Productivity increase by moving into a
green building (West Bend,...
Figure 1.9 Typical expenditure categories for a US
office business.
Figure 1.10 The principles of sustainability.
Figure 1.11 Three layers in a building system.
Figure 1.12 Three‐tier design approach.
Figure 1.13 Rocky Mountain Institute (RMI)
headquarter.
Figure 1.14 Fossil Ridge High School.
Chapter 2
Figure 2.1 Building design process.
Figure 2.2 Design alternative development process.
 Figure 2.3 Impact of early design input on building
performance.
Figure 2.4 Impact of building life stage on energy,
water, material, and was...
Figure 2.5 Sequential design process.
Figure 2.6 Overview of integrated design process.
Figure 2.7 Iterative design process.
Figure 2.8 Example of an iterative design process
for energy efficiency.
Figure 2.9 Conceptual path to a net‐zero energy
building.
Figure 2.10 Energy efficiency measures to reach
the global optimum and break...
Figure 2.11 High‐cost energy efficiency measures
and net‐zero energy design....
Figure 2.12 Impacts of utility rates on the path to a
net‐zero energy buildi...
Chapter 3
Figure 3.1 ASHRAE 90.1‐2010 and the
International Energy Conservation Code (...
Figure 3.2 Scopes of LEED rating systems.
Figure 3.3 Cumulative number of LEED registration
in the US from 2000 to 201...
Figure 3.4 LEED v4 for BD+C checklist.
Figure 3.5 Integrated design.
Figure 3.6 Five key elements to a successful
charrette.
Chapter 4
 Figure 4.1 Terminologies of air pressure.
Figure 4.2 Measurement of air pressure.
Figure 4.3 Temperature measurement and units.
Figure 4.4 Principle of the process to reach
saturation of moist air by evap...
Figure 4.5 Use sling psychrometer to measure
relative humidity.
Figure 4.6 Construction of air saturation as a
function of temperature.
Figure 4.7 Construction of relative humidity lines.
Figure 4.8 Construction of enthalpy lines.
Figure 4.9 Construction of wet‐bulb temperature
lines.
Figure 4.10 Different temperatures on a
psychrometric chart.
Figure 4.11 Illustration of the final format of a
psychrometric chart.
Figure 4.12 Psychrometric chart at the sea level.
Figure 4.13 Psychrometric chart at the 5000 ft
elevation (1500 m).
Figure 4.14 Psychrometric chart used in China.
Chapter 5
Figure 5.1 Onsite measured air temperature vs
those from the airport during ...
Figure 5.2 Beijing weather analysis on
psychrometric chart.
Figure 5.3 Denver weather analysis using Ecotect.
(a) Monthly temperatures a...
 Figure 5.4 Washington DC weather analysis using
Climate Consultant. (a) The ...
Figure 5.5 Microclimate: elevation impacts.
Figure 5.6 Microclimate: water impacts.
Figure 5.7 Microclimate: neighbor impacts.
Figure 5.8 Microclimate: grass impacts. (a) Grass
impact on surface and surr...
Figure 5.9 Microclimate: plant impacts.
Figure 5.10 Microclimate: noise impacts. (a) Noise
shadow created by barrier...
Chapter 6
Figure 6.1 Energy conservation at human body.
Figure 6.2 Proportions of human body heat loss at
air temperature of 70 °F....
Figure 6.3 Variation of human body heat loss
proportion with surrounding air...
Figure 6.4 The correlations between PMV and PPD.
Figure 6.5 Winter and summer comfort zones for
light activities in seasonal ...
Figure 6.6 Combined winter and summer comfort
zones using effective temperat...
Figure 6.7 Winter and summer comfort zones using
operative temperature.
Figure 6.8 Winter and summer comfort zones using
operative temperature.
Figure 6.9 Examples of comfort zones using the
Analytical Comfort Zone Metho...
 Figure 6.10 Snapshot of the CBE thermal comfort
tool.
Figure 6.11 Examples of comfort zones using the
Elevated Air Speed Comfort Z...
Figure 6.12 Acceptable indoor operating
temperature ranges for naturally con...
Figure 6.13 Influence of increasing air motion to
comfort zone.
Figure 6.14 Influence of increasing mean radiant
temperature to comfort zone...
Figure 6.15 Local thermal discomfort caused by
radiant asymmetry.
Figure 6.16 Local thermal discomfort caused by
vertical temperature differen...
Figure 6.17 Local discomfort caused by floor
temperature.
Chapter 7
Figure 7.1 Performance influence of IAQ.
Figure 7.2 Sum VOC from EPA public buildings
study (by age of the building)....
Figure 7.3 Ventilation requirements.
Figure 7.4 Mass conservation of a contaminant in a
confined space.
Figure 7.5 Typical cleaning layers in an air purifier
(https://cdn.shopify.c...
Figure 7.6 Capture mechanisms and efficiency of
particles of different sizes...
Figure 7.7 Factors affecting building air infiltration.
 Figure 7.8 Airflow through the building envelope
caused by stack, wind, and ...
Figure 7.9 Histogram of infiltration values in US
houses (a) new houses; (b)...
Figure 7.10 Photo of a blower door test rig.
Figure 7.11 The power law curve obtained from the
blower door test.
Figure 7.12 The power law curve obtained from the
blower door test in log fo...
Chapter 8
Figure 8.1 Specific heat of some common building
materials.
Figure 8.2 Density of some common building
materials.
Figure 8.3 Heat capacity of some common building
materials.
Figure 8.4 Thermal storage in a transient heat
transfer through a wall.
Figure 8.5 Steady state one‐dimensional conductive
heat transfer.
Figure 8.6 Composite walls.
Figure 8.7 Multiple layered wall.
Figure 8.8 Thermal network in series connection.
Figure 8.9 Parallel composite wall.
Figure 8.10 Thermal network in parallel connection
(a) fully separate (b) fu...
Figure 8.11 Heat flow through a composite wall.
 Figure 8.12 Thermal networks for heat flow
through a composite wall. (a) Ful...
Figure 8.13 Transient one‐dimensional conductive
heat transfer.
Figure 8.14 Thermal RC network.
Figure 8.15 Convective heat transfer.
Figure 8.16 Heat transfer through a composite wall
including surface convect...
Figure 8.17 Electromagnetic wave spectrum of
radiation.
Figure 8.18 Electromagnetic wave energy spectrum
of radiation.
Figure 8.19 Surface radiation properties:
reflectivity, transmissivity, and ...
Figure 8.20 Emissivity for black body, gray body,
and real body. (a) Emissiv...
Figure 8.21 Solar radiation properties of three
types of glasses.
Figure 8.22 Variance of glass transmissivity (or
transmittance) with differe...
Figure 8.23 Greenhouse effect.
Figure 8.24 Heat transfer through building
envelope with combined conduction...
Figure 8.25 Four typical slab‐on‐grade
constructions. (a) 8‐in. block wall, ...
Figure 8.26 Two‐dimensional heat transfer
processes through basement wall an...
Figure 8.27 Ground temperature amplitude.
Chapter 9
Figure 9.1 Rotation of the Earth around the sun
with tilted axis that causes...
Figure 9.2 Higher solar intensity (Btu/h·ft2) at the
Earth’s surface in summ...
Figure 9.3 Solar angles.
Figure 9.4 Sky dome.
Figure 9.5 Derivation of horizonal and vertical sun‐
path diagrams.
Figure 9.6 Horizonal sun‐path diagram for 32 °N
Latitude.
Figure 9.7 Vertical sun‐path diagram for 40 °N
Latitude.
Figure 9.8 Shadow of a building.
Figure 9.9 Shading from surrounding objects.
Figure 9.10 Shadow from a nearby building.
Figure 9.11 Shadow from a nearby building on the
horizonal sun‐path diagram....
Figure 9.12 Angles on a tilted surface.
Figure 9.13 Components of solar radiation on a
tilted surface.
Figure 9.14 Basic configuration and heat transfer
mechanisms of a double‐gla...
Figure 9.15 Variation of solar radiative heat
transfer through three differe...
Figure 9.16 Difference in U value between the edge
and center of a glass wit...
Figure 9.17 Representative fenestration frame
types as used in Table 9.2.
Chapter 10
Figure 10.1 Illustration of passive cooling
techniques.
Figure 10.2 Illustration of passive heating
techniques.
Figure 10.3 Potential savings of passive techniques
used in Boulder, CO, est...
Figure 10.4 Comfort zone in naturally ventilated
spaces.
Figure 10.5 Rule of thumb for the maximum space
depths for cross and single‐...
Figure 10.6 Diagram of wind‐driven ventilation.
Figure 10.7 Climate boundaries for using night
cooling technique.
Figure 10.8 Sketch of an indirect–direct
evaporative cooling system.
Figure 10.9 The performance charts of direct and
indirect evaporative coolin...
Figure 10.10 Trombe wall design and operation.
Figure 10.11 Sunspace design and operation.
Figure 10.12 Vliet test cell cavity details with
louvered cavity opening.
Chapter 11
Figure 11.1 Building load estimating methods, with
different complexity and ...
Figure 11.2 Thermal RC network for a building
envelope.
Figure 11.3 A simplified wall thermal network with
three wall thermal storag...
 Figure 11.4 The heat transfer link between the
zone and one building envelop...
Figure 11.5 The thermal network lining the zone
with one building envelope....
Chapter 12
Figure 12.1 Illustration of a fireplace.
Figure 12.2 Water heating system with a basement
boiler.
Figure 12.3 Principle of a boiler for water heating
system.
Figure 12.4 Packaged fire‐tube hot water boiler.
Figure 12.5 Hot water distribution terminals.
Figure 12.6 Hot water floor heating system.
Figure 12.7 Principle of a hot‐air furnace (with
cooling and humidification)...
Figure 12.8 Actual hot‐air furnace in residential
and small commercial build...
Figure 12.9 Air distribution terminals.
Figure 12.10 Electric heating terminals.
Figure 12.11 Typical cycling process of
compressive refrigeration (in °F).
Figure 12.12 Theoretic cooling processes on the
temperature‐entropy diagram ...
Figure 12.13 Packaged unitary (window) AC.
Figure 12.14 Residential whole house AC.
Figure 12.15 Rooftop AC unit.
Figure 12.16 Packaged central system for midsize
buildings.
Figure 12.17 All air systems.
Figure 12.18 All water systems.
Figure 12.19 Air water systems.
Figure 12.20 Fan‐coil unit.
Figure 12.21 Active chilled beam system.
Figure 12.22 Sensible heating and cooling
processes on the psychrometric cha...
Figure 12.23 Humidifying and dehumidifying
processes on the psychrometric ch...
Figure 12.24 Cooling and dehumidifying processes
on the psychrometric chart ...
Figure 12.25 Heating and humidifying processes on
the psychrometric chart an...
Figure 12.26 Different humidification processes
depending on the used media....
Figure 12.27 Adiabatic humidification and
desiccant dehumidification process...
Figure 12.28 The mixing process in the system and
on the psychrometric chart...
Figure 12.29 Flow diagram and states for a typical
central HVAC system.
Figure 12.30 Corresponding flow processes and air
states on the psychrometri...
Figure 12.31 Principles of the bypass model for
cooling coil.
Figure 12.32 The mixing process in a cooling coil
with the bypass model.
Figure 12.33 The complete psychrometric chart at
the sea level.
 Figure 12.34 Locate the room supply air condition
based on indoor conditions...
Figure 12.35 Locate the apparatus dewpoint
temperature.
Figure 12.36 The complete cooling cycle.
Figure 12.37 Determine the coil capacity by
measuring the enthalpy differenc...
Chapter 13
Figure 13.1 Overall EnergyPlus structure.
Figure 13.2 Energy balance on the interior surface
of a wall, ceiling, floor...
Figure 13.3 Executive streamline of the EnergyPlus
program.
Figure 13.4 Bang & Olufsen headquarters (north &
south facades).
Figure 13.5 Bang & Olufsen headquarters
floorplan.
Figure 13.6 Natural ventilation in the B&O
headquarters.
Figure 13.7 Sketchup rendering of B&O
headquarters as modeled in EnergyPlus....
Figure 13.8 Modified EnergyPlus model with inlet
heater approximation.
Figure 13.9 B&O building model calibration –
hourly.
Figure 13.10 B&O building model calibration –
linear regression.
Figure 13.11 B&O building – temperature results.
 Figure 13.12 B&O building results – thermal
comfort criteria.
Figure 13.13 B&O building – effect of heater zone
on predicted air change ra...
Figure 13.14 Effect of air change rate on
temperature predictions – B&O.
Figure 13.15 Effect of thermal mass on
temperature predictions – B&O buildin...
Figure 13.16 Effect of weather file accuracy on
predicted thermal comfort – ...
Figure 13.17 Effect of h model on temperature
response – B&O building.
Chapter 14
Figure 14.1 Procedure for identifying energy‐saving
strategies using a build...
Figure 14.2 Harbin office benchmark model.
Figure 14.3 Parametric analysis results.
Figure 14.4 Initial optimization results.
Figure 14.5 Sensitivity of insulation on energy
savings.
Figure 14.6 Potential energy savings.
Energy Efficient Buildings

Fundamentals of Building Science and

Thermal Systems
Zhiqiang (John) Zhai
Department of Civil, Environmental and Architectural
Engineering
University of Colorado at Boulder
Boulder, CO, USA
This edition first published 2023
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Library of Congress Cataloging‐in‐Publication Data
Names: Zhai, Zhiqiang (John), author.
Title: Energy efficient buildings : fundamentals of building science and thermal
systems / John Zhai.
Description: Hoboken, NJ : Wiley, 2023.
Identifiers: LCCN 2022017503 (print) | LCCN 2022017504 (ebook) | ISBN
9781119881933 (cloth) | ISBN 9781119881957 (adobe pdf) | ISBN
9781119881940 (epub)
Subjects: LCSH: Architecture and energy conservation. | Heat engineering.
Classification: LCC NA2542.3 .Z42 2023 (print) | LCC NA2542.3 (ebook) | DDC
720/.472--dc23/eng/20220715
LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2022017503
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Cover Design by Wiley
1
Sustainable Building

1.1 Building Functions

Buildings are created for various purposes and functions,
such as for living, production, retail, and storage. Without
functions, buildings are purely pieces of art. Following the
Maslow's hierarchy of needs theory (Figure 1.1), building
functions can generally be grouped as follows:

Shelter: provides basic living or working conditions that

mitigate severe environmental influences such as rain,
storm, and snow. Such examples include caves and
original vernacular shelters.
Safety: presents additional security to indoor
environments with measures such as structure supports
(e.g. columns and beams), doors, and windows.
Productivity: ensures efficient and effective organization
of spatial‐temporal layout, circulation, and space
operation.
Comfort: delivers controllable indoor environments with
desired temperature, humidity, air speed, and visual and
acoustic qualities using various passive and active
systems.
Health: ensures proper air quality with minimum
pollutions and adequate oxygen and other necessary
supplies (e.g. CO2 for plants).
Privacy: fulfills phycological requirements for
appropriate distance, boundary, independence, and
connectivity.
 Aesthetics: meet aesthetic and emotional needs for
spatial and spiritual joy.

It is important to note that many technical approaches can be

used to meet these function requirements, in which most
energy efficient and environmentally friendly solutions should
take the priority. Achieving the desired building functions,
rather than energy efficiency and environmental friendliness,
is the ultimate goals of building design and construction.
Sacrificing one of these functions, such as thermal comfort,
to meet the energy efficiency target fully opposes the original
motivations of sustainable building development. Buildings in
poor areas without access to electricity and natural gas have
a natural “net‐zero energy” feature of buildings; however,
these buildings with the same indoor–outdoor temperature
(in both summer and winter) are surely not the target for
sustainable development.
Figure 1.1 Maslow's hierarchy of needs theory
(https://www.simplypsychology.org/maslow.html).
Source: McLeod (2020)/Simply psychology.

1.2 Building Elements

Buildings require three primary elements during both
construction and operation:

Materials
Water
Energy

As one kind of ecosystem, buildings take inputs of energy,

water, and materials while generating waste, pollution, and
possible poor health (Figure 1.2). Both inputs and outputs
have limitations on their capacities; therefore “sustainable”
approaches are keenly sought after to minimize the impacts
on both natural resources and sinks.

1.2.1 Input: Energy

According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA)
(https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=86&t=1),
buildings use 39% of the total primary energy and 74% of the
electricity in the United States (Figures 1.3 and 1.4). The
International Energy Agency (IEA) predicted that in the New
Policies Scenario, global energy needs rise more slowly than
in the past but still expand by 30% between today and 2040.
This is the equivalent of adding another China and India to
today’s global demand. It was also indicated that most of the
required energy was produced (and will continue to be
produced) by fossil fuels (Figure 1.5), such as petroleum,
coal, and natural gas, although renewables are rapidly rising
with reduced costs and policy incentives.

Figure 1.2 Architectural ecosystem.