War. Res. Vol. 29, No. 4, pp.

995 1004, 1995

Elsevier ScienceLtd. Printed in Great Britain
Pergamon

D Y N A M I C MODELLING OF THE ACTIVATED SLUDGE

PROCESS: IMPROVING PREDICTION USING N E U R A L
NETWORKS

M A R T I N COTI~ 1, B E R N A R D P . A . G R A N D J E A N 1, , P A U L L E S S A R D 2@ and
JULES THIBAULT 1
~D6partement de g6nie chimique, 2D6partement de g6nie civil, Universit6 Laval, Qu6bec, Qc,
Canada GIK 7P4

(First received January 1994; accepted in revised form October 1994)

Abstract A procedure has been developed to improve the accuracy of an existing mechanistic model of
the activated sludge process, previously described by Lessard and Beck [Wat. Res. 27, 963-978 (1993)].
As a first step, optimization of the numerous model parameters has been investigated using the downhill
simplex method in order to minimize the sum of the squares of the errors between predicted and
experimental values of appropriate variables. Optimization of various sets of parameters has shown that
the accuracy of the mechanistic model, especially on the prediction of the dissolved oxygen (DO) in the
mixed liquor, can be easily improved by adjusting only the values of the overall oxygen transfer
coefficients, KLa. Then, in a second step, neural network models have been used successfully to predict
the remaining errors of the optimized mechanistic model. The coupling of the mechanistic model with
neural network models resulted in a hybrid model yielding accurate simulations of five key variables of
the activate sludge process.

Key vvords~ynamic modelling, activated sludge, neural networks, wastewater

INTRODUCTION sludge plant. Their model could account for the

The activated sludge process, comprising a biological
reactor and a secondary settler, is widely used as
secondary treatment for both municipal and indus-
trial wastewaters. The effective control of such a
process depends, in part, on the ability to simulate the
dynamics of both the biological reactor and the
secondary clarifier. A lot of effort has therefore been
devoted to the modelling of the activated sludge
process since the early 1970's (Lessard and Beck,
1991).
However, even though many models and types of
models have been proposed to simulate the dynamic
behaviour of both the biological reactor and the
secondary settler, very few studies looked at the
interactions between these two units (Dupont and
Henze, 1992). Moreover, very few models have been
validated with real field data. Lessard and Beck
(1993) presented the evaluation of a simplified version
of the I A W P R C ' s model (Henze et al., 1987) with a
set of data gathered during a 10 day intensive
sampling campaign. The results were judged ade-
quate although many improvements remained to be
made for an accurate prediction of the process be-
haviour. Stokes et al. (1993) have also presented
results from a validation process of an activated
*Author to whom all correspondence should be addressed.
general dynamic behaviour of the process but erratic
predictions were sometimes obtained.
The problem of obtaining models to adequately
represent the dynamic behaviour of field data is not
an easy one. The nature of the process per se, the
lack of good understanding and description of the
phenomena involved, the availability of good, re-
liable and complete field data set, and the estimation
of the numerous parameters involved are the major
factors contributing to this problem. Some will argue
that as long as more detailed mechanistic models are
not developed, i.e. that a more profound understand-
ing of the various phenomena taking place in the
process is not available, it will be difficult to fit
simulated responses with observed data. However,
increase in model complexity will undoubtedly in-
crease the number of parameters leading to problems
of identifiability (Beck, 1986). On the other hand,
some argue that to perform successfully process
control, the use of simple empirical models (black-
box) is compulsory. But oversimplification does not
give insight into the process which is also necessary
for better control and operation. It may suffice the
short-term needs of control-system design to accept
an adequate input/output representation of process
dynamics, but this serves neither the urgent need of
process learning for its own sake, nor the long-term
needs of control (Beck, 1986).

995
996 M. C6t6 et al.
This dilemma of mechanistic models vs black-box
ones could be solved by approaching the problem
with a comprising mind. For example, it is desired to
model as accurately as possible the activated sludge
process with a mechanistic model. However, it is not
possible nor desirable to spend considerable time and
effort to describe particularities and nonidealities of
a process. This is where a black-box model can play
an important role by modelling the gap that exists
between the mechanistic model and plant data. The
advent of neural networks opens another door in the
field of modelling as they can be coupled with
mechanistic models to increase the prediction capa-
bilities without necessarily increasing the mathemati-
cal complexities.
The objective of this paper is thus to report on the
improvement of an existing mechanistic model of the
activated sludge process using black-box models: in
this case, neural networks. A short description of the
mechanistic model used will first be presented, along
with some brief comments on neural networks and
their application in the field of wastewater treatment.
The mechanistic model
The mechanistic model used in this work is de-
scribed in Lessard and Beck (1993). Roughly, it
consists of a biological process model which is a
simplified version of the IAWPRC's model (Henze
et al., 1987) and a secondary settler model described
by a clarification model consisting of an empirical
relationship [based on Pfianz (1969) model] and a
thickening model using the flux theory as described
by Dick and Young (1972). The model can predict the
final effluent concentration of suspended solids (SS),
volatile suspended solids (VSS), total and soluble
Settled
sewage "~ ~ Aerator
"R"
~-.
WAS
Consolidationtank
To sludgetreatment ~
Fig. 1. The activated sludge process at Norwich, England with values to be fitted.
chemical oxygen demand (COD T and CODs), and
ammonium-N (NH4). The behaviour of dissolved
oxygen, and VSS in the mixed liquor and returned
activated sludge is also simulated by the model. The
hydraulics in the aerator are represented by four
continuous stirred tank reactors (CSTR's).
This mechanistic model was used to simulate the
behaviour of the activated sludge plant located at
Norwich (England). A schematic flow sheet of this
process is presented in Fig. 1. The main feature of this
particular plant is the recycling of supernatants from
the waste activated sludge consolidation tank to the
head of the aerator. This sidestream is mixed with the
settled sewage coming from the primary clarifiers.
The hydraulic retention time is approx. 9 h for the
aerator and 6 h for the secondary clarifier. The model
was run with an influent data set that was collected
over 10 days at the Norwich Sewage Works. The
simulation results were then compared to the corre-
sponding effluent data. The simulation was adequate
for the VSS in returned activated sludge and the
effluent NH 4. Poorer fit was observed for effluent SS
and CODT, and dissolved oxygen in mixed liquor.
However, in the latter case, the simulated concen-
tration and the experimental points followed the
same trends. More details on the model, the sampling
campaign, the plant and the evaluation of the model
can be found in Lessard and Beck (1993).
Neural network models
Among the various neural network models that
exist (Wasserman, 1989; Lippman, 1987), backpropa-
gation (or feedforward) neural network models
are known to be very effective to capture the non-
linear relationships which exist between variables in
Secondary J Final
clarifier effluent
Waste activatedsludge
Sump
~ Sludgedryingbeds
 Neural network modelling of activated sludge
complex systems. In essence, a backpropagation neu-
ral network model can be viewed as a regression
model between input and output variables. Various
applications of these models have been recently re-
ported in chemical engineering, mostly in process
identification and control (Bhat and McAvoy, 1990;
Thibault, 1991; Thibault and Grandjean, 1991;
Hoskins et al., 1991; Psichogios and Ungar, 1991; Su
et al., 1992; Venkatasubramanian and McAvoy,
1992; You and Nikolaou, 1993). Neural networks
have also found applications in wastewater treat-
ment, where they were used for instance to model the
sludge volume index (SVI) in order to forecast sludge
bulking (Capadaglio et al., 1991), or to predict the
effect of heavy metals on the performance of the
activated sludge process (Tyagi and Du, 1992). Boger
(1992) reviewed various applications of neural net-
works in the field of wastewater engineering and
discussed both advantages and limitations of neural
approach. According to him, the main advantage of
neural networks is their ability to extract the under-
lying phenomena directly from historical plant data
whereas other artificial intelligence systems such as
expert systems need human intervention to encode
knowledge about the process. However, Boger (1992)
underlines the limit of using neural network approach
if the database is insufficient (neural model could lead
to erroneous interpolations) or restricted to a narrow
range of operating conditions (neural model could
lead to erroneous extrapolations).
In this investigation, a three-layer feedforward
neural network was used: that is a network with a
single hidden layer as shown in Fig. 2. Using the
nomenclature of Fig. 2, the neural network models
consist of the following set of equations:
Hidden layer:
H / = f ( Z W, l <~j <~J - 1
where U is the scaled input vector and H is the output
vector of the neurons contained in the hidden layer.
The last elements of these two vectors, U z and H j, are
the bias and they are set equal to 1.
I J K
W~j~ Wlk
U~
U2
U3 S2
Fig. 2. The feedforward neural network.
997
Output layer:
S k = f ( ~=, l<~k <~K. (2)
The transfer function, f, was the sigmoid function
1/[1 + e x p ( - x ) ] . The coefficients W~i and W~k in the
summations, which are usually referred as the
weights, are the fitting coefficients of the neural
model.
METHODOLOGY
The improvement of the Lessard and Beck (1993) acti-
vated sludge mechanistic model was done in two main steps.
The first step consisted of optimizing the values of the
various parameters used in the mechanistic model. Initially,
Lessard and Beck (1993) estimated the model parameters
using good judgement and a trial and error method. Par-
ameter optimization has been performed using the downhill
simplex method (Press et al., 1988) in order to minimize an
objective function consisting of the sum of the squared
deviations between experimental and predicted values for
five variables: effluent SS, COD r, NH 4, dissolved oxygen in
the mixed liquor and VSS in the returned activated sludge
(Fig. 1). Downhill simplex method has been chosen for its
simplicity because it does not require the derivative of the
objective cost function with respect to each parameter to be
optimized. To have a similar weighting for each variable (x),
in the objective function, their normalized values (x*), have
been considered and defined as
x * -- Xmax.ex
p -- X . (3)
Xmax,ex p - - Xmin.ex p
The criteria used to judge the fit was the sum of squared
errors on these normalized values, defined as
S= ~ ~ [x~'~xp.(m)-x~'~a,~(m)] e. (4)
/-I m--I
Other criteria were also tested: the sum of squares of
relative errors showed to be inadequate, since it did not
weigh adequately the peaks observed in the experimental
data. The sum of squares of absolute errors of non-normal-
(1) ized data proved also inadequate as it weighed more heavily
the fitted variables having a greater magnitude.
The optimization termination criterion consisted in the
following procedure. Starting from the initial set of par-
ameters, the routine performed 400 iterations leading to a
new set of optimized parameter values. Then, successive
reruns of the routine were performed until parameters
converged (Press et al., 1988).
All mechanistic models are only an approximation and
cannot account for the complete dynamics of the process.
The second step therefore consisted in the neural modelling
of the errors between the simulated responses given by the
optimized mechanistic model and the corresponding exper-
imental values. Basically, these neural models can be viewed
as error predictors of the key variables of the mechanistic
v
model; the coupling of the neural network to the mechanis-
tic model results in the hybrid model shown in Fig. 3. For
each of the five key variables of the activated sludge process
previously identified (Fig. 1), a neural network was devel-
r
oped to model the prediction errors between the mechanistic
model and the experimental values. For each variable, the
inputs of the neural models had to be selected among the
available process variables; these inputs were selected using
a cross-correlation algorithm between input and output
variables, and a blend of trial-and-error and good judge-
ment. Five small different neural networks have been pre-
ferred to a large neural model having five outputs, because
the selection of the input variables depends on the output
998 M. C6t6 et al.

.~ Mechanistic ~J~O Table 1. The average relative error on predictions (%)

Model SS CODr NH 4 DO RASVSS

Inputs V utput I
2a
47.8
42.6
37.1
31.8
69.2
66.7
260
45.5
6.6
5.5

-I _1-1 NeuralE~ror
Predictor
I 1 2b
3
47.8
17.1
40.2
16.3
69.1
46.0
~Predictions using mechanistic model with initial parameters.
51.2
18.3
6.6
2.6

2"Predictions using mechanistic model with 41 optimized parameters.

Fig. 3. Schematic of the hybrid model. 2bPredictions using mechanistic model with 3 optimized KLa'S.
3Predictions using hybrid model.

variable. A large neural network model would then require

too m a n y inputs, most of which being not relevant for the
predictions of 4 outputs amongst the 5. The network's
architecture being chosen, model parameters, which are the
weights W,7 and l,Vjk (Fig. 2), were determined using a
least-square regression algorithm. Parameter determination
is usually known as the learning or training of the neural
network model. In this investigation, the nonlinear re-
gression algorithm, used for the learning procedure, was the
BFGS version of a quasi-Newton method (Press et al.,
1988). The quasi-Newton method was preferred to the more
popular backpropagation algorithm which was found to be
less accurate and to converge more slowly (Thibault and
Grandjean, 1991).
A frequent problem in the use of neural networks is
that they m a y overfit the experimental points: that is,
the network learns a series of particular cases instead
of computing the general tendency of the system. This
neural network is therefore not reliable for predicting data
that has not been part of its learning procedure. This may
be caused either by an insufficient database (Boger, 1992) or
by an excessive number of neurons in the hidden layer
(Chitra, 1993). On the other hand, too few neurons do not
allow the neural model to fully capture the underlying
dynamics of the process. In this investigation, the number
of neurons in the hidden layer has been varied between 3
and 6 and the optimum value has been retained. In order
to reject neural network models that overfit, the available
data set, consisting of 193 hourly basis sampling (Lessard
and Beck 1993), was split in two parts. The first part
consisted of data from time step 1 to time step 140, and
was used for learning. The remaining data, from time
step 141 to time step 193, served as a validation file on which
the generalizing capability of the network could then be
judged.

°,qtao° Experimental
-- Mechanistic model with initial parameters
- Mechanistic m o d e l w i t h 3 o p t i m i z e d KLa's

5 -- II

/ I1
I II I q

I II I
4 --
II II I /
I I .,,l I I I
I I
II I ~1 I I I
I I I
'7 I1 I I I I ... I I
I
v

O
3 -- II II I ,.I I /
II r-: I I\ I
I
I I ~1 / Ik/
I / III k
2 -- I iooo off k
,I , [] o] II
1 -- 13 °
I II

~ °°DO D ODO0

I I I I
0 40 80 120 160 200
T(h)

Fig. 4. Simulation of the dissolved oxygen in the mixed liquor using mechanistic model with initial and
optimized parameters.
 Neural network modelling of activated sludge 999

Table 2. Values of Kta (h ~) Table 3. Characteristics of the neural networks

CSTR 1 CSTR 2 CSTR 3 Variable Inputs I J K
Initial 5.4 1.7 0.74 Effluent suspended solids (t) Q(t)setaedse,~ge 6 6 1
Optimized 8.7 1.8 0.36 Q (t)rc,u,,~-a activatedsludge
Q (t)o.e.. ...... tida, . . . . . k
SS(t )seLt~edsewage
SS(/ -- I )settled sewage
RESULTS Effluent total chemical Q (I)settled sewage 6 6 I
oxygen d e m a n d (t) Q (l)returned activated sludge
Parameter optimization of the mechanistic model Q (t)ovo,~ . . . . . . ,d~,on t~.k
Of the 61 parameters used in the mechanistic CODT(t )settled sewage
SS(t )~ded ~wage
model, 20 parameters have values that were either Effluent a m m o n i a (t) Q(l)~ltled ~wage 6 6 I
measured experimentally or determined by the struc- Q (t),~urned ~e"~ed ~udge
Q (t)ov¢~a. . . . . . . lidationtank
ture of the model; they were therefore not optimized. NH4(t - 3)settledsewage
Good initial estimates of all the other parameters CODT(t -- 3)sculedsewage
were obtained from the literature or from past experi- Mixed liquor dissolved Q (l)~ttled ~wage 6 6 I
oxygen (t) Q (t)~¢t~.ed ~ct,~ted ~l~dge
ence. A first optimization of the remaining 41 par- Q (t)ove.n . . . . . . . 'ida,o..~.k
ameters showed that few parameters varied CODT (t)settled ~age
significantly. Indeed, only three parameters varied by CODT(t - 1)settled sewage
Volatile suspended solids in Q (t)~.~d ~w~ 6 6 1
more than 20%: the dissolved oxygen saturation returned activated sludge (t) Q (t)ret.~ed activatedsludge
concentration, the overall oxygen transfer coefficient Q (t)ovum . . . . . . . lidationtank
CODT(t -- 3)~ttJed ~age
(KLa) of the mixed liquor in the third CSTR and the NH4(t - 3)~tded ~ag~
ratio of non-biodegradable particulate COD to total
COD. However, the optimized value of 7.8 g/m 3, for
the dissolved oxygen saturation concentration is not 15° and 20°C. A series of optimization was then
acceptable. Such a value corresponds to a tempera- performed using a restricted number of parameters
ture around 30°C (Ramalho, 1983) while the actual (groups of 1-5) among the following: dissolved oxy-
temperature experienced by the process was between gen saturation concentration, the ratios of total COD

50 anaaa Experimental ]zl

I- - Optimized mechanistic model I
- Hybrid model [

I o
<------ Learning [ Validation ------>
40 data t data rt

J o
° i
~ ,,
20 o ~\ "'x "~

a / ~a\ a a
10

I I I I I
0 40 80 120 160 200

T (h)
Fig. 5. S i m u l a t i o n o f t h e effluent s u s p e n d e d solids with and without the neural network correction.
1000
and the values of KLa in the first three CSTR's. The
value of KLa in the fourth CSTR was assumed to be
equal to the one used for the third CSTR.
As reported in Table 1, the most interesting results
were obtained by optimizing the only three KLa'S.
The resulting improvement for the prediction of
dissolved oxygen is shown in Fig. 4. The optimized
values of KLa are reported in Table 2 and can be
explained. The decreasing value of KLa could be
related to the decreasing aeration flow rate occurring
in the aeration tank (tapered aeration system) which
has been modelled as four series CSTR's. Indeed, the
percentages of the total air flow-rate in the four
CSTR's are respectively 45, 30, 15 and 10%. In
addition, it is important to mention that, in the actual
process, a sidestream of mixed liquor is saturated
with pure oxygen prior to being injected at the head
of the aerator (VITOX process). Due to the fact that
the model does not account for this additional oxy-
genation, the optimizing procedure led to high value
of KLa in the first CSTR in order to obviate to an
underestimation of oxygen concentration. In ad-
dition, it can be observed in Table 1, that parameter
optimization has not led to significant improvement
for other variables than dissolved oxygen. The mod-
180
ooooo Experimental
-- -- Optimized mechanistic model
Hybrid m o d e l
150 --
120 --
'~ 90--
6O
I
30--
I I
0 40
Fig. 6. Simulation of the effluent total chemical oxygen demand with and without the neural network
correction.
M. C6t6 et al.
elling of the effluent SS, being a linear function of the
flow entering to the aerator, could not be improved
by optimizing the parameters. The CODT is partly a
function of the SS concentration, with regard to the
particulate COD; a poor fit of the effluent SS results
in a poor fit of effluent CODT. It is interesting to
mention that modelling improvement obtained by
fitting the only three KLa'S is quite similar to one
where 41 parameters were considered (Table 1). This
result clearly stresses the limit of optimizing too many
parameters.
Even using the three optimized K t a's, the mecha-
nistic model could not predict precisely the behaviour
of the system. The next step was then to correct the
errors observed with the mechanistic model using
block-box models, in this case, the neural networks.
These errors are not necessarily caused by inaccurate
parameters, but could also result from simplifications
in model development, from sampling errors, analyti-
cal errors and so on.
Coupling of neural network and mechanistic models
Neural network models have been used to predict
the errors between experimental values of effluent
characteristics (SS, CODr and NH4), dissolved
•¢ - - - - - - Learning Validation ------:,
data data
D
[]
o
D
D []
I 1
80 120 160 200
T (h)
 Neural network modelling of activated sludge
oxygen and returned activated sludge, and corre-
sponding values predicted by the optimized mecha-
nistic model. The inputs and the number of hidden
neurons for each network are given in Table 3. As it
can be seen from Table l, the coupling of the
mechanistic model with the neural network error
predictor yields significant improvement in the simu-
lation of all variables. This is true particularly in the
cases where the mathematical relations of the mecha-
nistic model are insufficient to describe the complex
phenomena occurring in the process: for example,
the suspended solids in the effluent, for which a
linear function of the influent flow is clearly in-
adequate.
Suspended solids. The suspended solids were not
precisely predicted by the mechanistic model, due
to the weakness of the mathematical function used
to simulate this variable. As shown in Fig. 5, the
corrected simulation is adequate for the validation
file (beginning at t = 141). It can be observed that the
increase of settled sewage flow at t = 154 has an
immediate influence on the SS simulated by the
mechanistic model, whereas this influence is effec-
tively detected only 3 ~ h later. The neural network
model corrected this discrepancy even if these data
were not part of the learning data.
5
aaaaa Experimental
-- - Optimized mechanistic model
] Hybrid model
41
i\\
0 40
Fig. 7. Simulation of the effluent ammonia-N with and without the neural network correction.
I001
Total chemical oxygen demand. This case is similar
to that of suspended solids: the mechanistic model
simulation does not represent the observed behaviour
very well, but rather gives an average value. Using the
neural network, the modelling observed on the vali-
dation file (Fig. 6) seems adequate: even though the
network cannot predict exactly the amplitude of the
variations, it follows the same pattern as the exper-
imental values. It is important to recall that what we
are looking for is the general tendency of the system
rather than an overfitting of individual points.
Ammonia. The effluent ammonia concentration
was already well simulated by the mechanistic model,
except between time steps 30 and 80. The optimiz-
ation of parameters brought little improvement. The
use of neural networks resulted in a reduction of the
average error. Figure 7 shows that the underestima-
tion between time steps 30 and 80 is satisfactorily
corrected. The validation file is also well simulated:
the fast decrease predicted by the mechanistic model
between time steps 160 and 172 is rectified. Since the
error was occasionally five to 10 times the magnitude
of the predicted value, corrected values below zero
were observed. A minimum value of zero for the
response of the hybrid model had therefore to be set.
However, these discrepancies were not significant as
i
i
- i ---"
i
i .
,, i i t
1 I
80 120 160 200
7" (h)
1002
they did not exceed - 0 . 1 gm -3. The value of 46%
reported in Table 1 for the average relative error
could appear to be in contradiction with the good fit
shown in Fig. 7. This is due to the fact that numerous
values of NH4 are below 0.3 and the magnitude of the
relative error has then been increased.
Dissolved oxygen. Simulation of the dissolved oxy-
gen with the three optimized parameters was rela-
tively good, except for time steps 1-70. The
improvement due to neural network correction
is shown in Fig. 8. The fitting is improved for time
steps 1-70, and the validation file is also adequately
simulated, although the needed correction was
minimal due to the accuracy of the model's predic-
tions.
Part of the error could probably be caused by the
saturation of the oxygen probe, as it cannot evaluate
precisely dissolved oxygen concentrations below
0.4 gm -3. Verification of the probe could not be done
to support this, but a simple observation of the
experimental results leads us to this conclusion. This
could be the cause of the somehow low improvement
brought by neural networks on this state variable,
since the learning procedure used data that did not
represent with sufficient precision the physical situ-
ation occurring in the process.
tZDtZtlD E x p e r i m e n t a l
-- -- Optimized mechanistic model
- Hybrid model
3 --
2--
1 k
°:oo
i I
40
Fig. 8. Simulation of the mixed liquor dissolved oxygen with and without the neural network correction•
M. C6t6 et al.
Volatile suspended solids in returned activated
sludge. The mechanistic model's predictions for VSS
in returned activated sludge are good, except that
they reach maximum values at regular intervals
(Fig. 9). This is due to the flux theory used in the
model. According to this theory, there exists a limit-
ing flux of components that can be absorbed by
the settler for a certain set of operating conditions
(Lessard and Beck, 1993). Figure 9 points out that the
slight variations of the VSS in returned activated
sludge, during which the mechanistic model gives
constant outputs, are relatively well represented by
the hybrid model. Again, the purpose of this work is
not to match exactly with the experimental points,
but to follow the variations. The validation file is here
again satisfactorily corrected: rapid changes of con-
centration between time steps 154 and 166, during
which the mechanistic model gives a constant value,
are predicted with a good accuracy.
CONCLUSION
A two step procedure was presented in order to
improve the accuracy of the mechanistic model of the
activated sludge process, previously described by
Lessard and Beck (1993).
<------ Learning Validation ------:"
data data
N
El Q
[
I
!
I I
80 120 160 200
T(h)
 Neural network modelling of activated sludge
ll,000
DOODt~ Experimental
-- m Optimized mechanistic model
- Hybrid model
10,000 --
9000 --
f
8000 --
> 3
xl
7000 --
6000 --
5000 I I
0 40 80
Fig. 9. Simulation of the VSS in returned activated sludge with and without the neural network correction.
As a first step, parameter optimization of the
model was performed using a least square regression
analysis, the downhill simplex method, in conjunction
with a large set of experimental data of five key
process variables (effluent SS, CODT, NH 4, dissolved
oxygen in the mixed liquor, and VSS in the returned
activated sludge). Among the 41 parameters that can
be adjusted, the overall oxygen transfer coefficients,
Kea, have found to be the best fitting parameters. The
accuracy of the mechanistic model has been greatly
improved, especially on the prediction of the dis-
solved oxygen (DO) in the mixed liquor. However,
the optimization procedure did not succeed in im-
proving the predictions of the four remaining key
variables.
In the second step, feedforward neural network
models were used successfully to simulate the predic-
tion errors of the mechanistic model. The neural error
predictors consisted of a compact set of equations
and have been coupled easily with the mechanistic
model. The resulting hybrid model was found, in
general, to simulate with a good accuracy the dynam-
ics of the activated sludge process. Some deviations
that have been observed could be partly explained, in
this case, by noisy effluent data. Further improve-
ments of modelling could probably be obtained by
1003
r -~hr~~
'¢------ Learning Validation ------:"
data data
I I
120 160 200
T (h)
accounting for the variation of parameters during the
process. Some parameters, instead of being constant,
can be a function of time or of other variables such
as flow, height of sludge blanket or concentration of
a certain component.
In the modelling of complex systems, the coupling
of mechanistic and neural models could be used
iteratively. A simple mechanistic model could be
calibrated initially with experimental data and the
modelling errors taken into account by a neural
network model in order to achieve a usable model for
prediction and/or process control. With time, the
mechanistic model could be improved to represent
more accurately and to better comprehend the under-
lying phenomena. As a result, the black box neural
network would take a lesser modelling load. In
addition, if the prediction of one state variable is
significantly enhanced by the neural network model,
it is a clear indication that the experimental data
contains dynamic behaviour that has not been
encapsulated in the mechanistic model and the mod-
elling effort would lead to a better model. If no
significant improvement is observed, it may suggest
that the data are not sufficiently rich in information
or that important variables are not considered in the
model.
1004 M. C6t6 et al.
Acknowledgement--The authors thank the NSERC for its
financial support.
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