Climate Change Impacts on

Agriculture and Food Security

ESC351 SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

Prof.Dr. Nilgün Kıran Cılız
Institute of Environmental Sciences
 Complex System
Crop production relies on a balance of temperature and
precipitation, soil composition, and atmospheric CO2

CO2

(Sources: USDA Global Change Task Force, 2010; Walthall et al, 2012)
• Climate change may have beneficial as well as detrimental
consequences for agriculture.

• A warming climate and decreasing soil moisture can also result in

increasing need for irrigation.

• Benefits to agriculture might be offset by an increased likelihood of heat

waves, drought, severe thunderstorms and tornadoes.

• With the virtually certain likelihood of warmer and more frequent hot
days and nights, there are projected to be increased insect outbreaks
impacting agriculture, forestry and ecosystems. (IPCC )

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Predicted climate change impacts on agriculture

CLIMATE CHANGE

Indirect effects
Socio economic
Direct effect on crop •Soil Fertility
growth •Irrigation availability
•Policy
•Physiology •Pest
•Trade
•Morphology •Flood & droughts
•Farmer’s response

Human interventions
Adaptation strategies
Mitigation strategies

Agricultural Production &

vulnerability
Direct impacts from temp/precip. changes, plus:

 Increased variability in weather

 Extreme conditions

 Sea level rise & surge – inundating & ruining coastal agricultural lands

 CO2 fertilization

(FAO 2003, IPCC 2008)

Indirect impacts:
 Changing crop-weed competition dynamics
 Range changes of pests & pathogens
 Expanded range predicted for many pathogens
 Less-cold winters allow increase in pests
 Different range changes between pests & pathogens and
natural controls
 Decreased biodiversity in natural ecosystems

 (Patterson et al. 1999, FAO 2003, IPCC 2008)

 Climate Change effects on Production

Aggregate effects transcend individual agro-

ecosystems:
Agriculture is complex system linked to climate
by temp., precipitation, solar radiation, and
atmospheric gas composition.
Soil and water resources are impacted by same
issues and represent key components of the system.
Despite technological improvements that increase corn yields, extreme weather events have
caused significant yield reductions in some years. Source: USGCRP (2009)
 Soil Resources

Soils provide ecosystem services:

Nutrient cycling & delivery of nutrients for
food and fiber production;
Flood mitigation thru filtration and water
reservoir
Structure to support plants – multi element
CO2 sequestration & uptake of GHG in surface
and organic layers
 Soil erosion effected
by Climate Change

• Studies of field edge effects indicate

major factors are:
1) Rainfall:
a) intensity – Hi I, short D > Low I, long D
b) increase CO2 may lead to plant growth and
ground cover – lower splash and higher infiltration,
But higher intensity may increases erosion overall.
• 2) Snow and Winter processes- increased
erosion when melt water flows over thawed
soil on top of frozen soil.
• 3) Wind – erosion by wind impacted by
velocity, soil moisture content, surface
roughness, vegetation.

Dust storm near Lubbock, Texas

http://www.newswise.com/images/uploads/2012/05/7/duststorm.JPG
 Changing Production and Effects on
Erosion
• Changes in temperature and ppt. are changing
the types of crops planted, dates of planting,
harvest and tillage and crop management.
• Mixed messages with regard to soil erosion –
most studies show an increase in soil erosion
(decreasing fertility), but the opportunities for
increased management coupled with the varying
temporal and spatial scales, may result in new
models that will more accurately reflect shifts in
ecosystem characteristics.
 Industrial Agriculture:
Source of 30% of total global anthropogenic emissions of GHGs

• Particulate matter & GHGs from land

clearance by fire & burning of residues

The major sources of agricultural GHG in Manitoba are:

laobumpkin.blogspot.com
1. Carbon dioxide (CO2)from
o The burning of fossil fuels by equipment and facilities
o Losses in soil organic matter
2. Methane (CH4)from
o Livestock manure
www.dowagro.com
o Enteric fermentation of ruminant animals
3. Nitrous oxide (N2O) from
o Fertilizer use, predominately synthetic N fertilizer
o Decomposing crop residues
o Manure on pasture and in storage

www.ncagr.gov
Agricultural GHG emissions in Manitoba from
1990 to 2011.
The Nitrogen Cycle
Greenhouse gas sources and sinks within an
agricultural system
• Crop Production
• Livestock: Cattle, Dairy Animals, Swine &
Poultry
• Culturally Important Foods
• Other Issues
• Adaptation & Best Management Practices

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CROP PRODUCTION

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Crop Susceptibility to Climate Change
1) Abiotic effects
- Crop development and yield impacted by (exp):
temperature changes
precipitation changes
2) Biotic effects
- impact agricultural productivity (exp) :
pest pressures
availability of pollination services
Changing climatic conditions will impact crop
production in four primary ways:
1. Long-term changes in average temperatures and
precipitation patterns
2. Increase in pests and invasive species
3. Acute losses resulting from more frequent and
intense weather extremes
4. Impacts of runoff, soil erosion and reduced
infiltration from increased intensity of storm
events
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(Source: Walthall et al, 2012)
Potential impacts of climate change on agricultural
crops in Canada
Effects of Frost Days
Increase number of frost-free days
and reduced “winter chill hours”
• Many crops require minimum number
of days near freezing to keep plants
dormant during winter
In warmer winters crops bud or
bloom earlier
• Pro: Longer growing season and
potentially larger harvest
• Con: Increased risk of damage from late
spring frost (e.g., Niagara falls apples
and Windsor cherries, Canada in 2012)
(Sources: NCADAC, 2013; Walthall et al, 2012;
California Climate and Agricultural Network, 2011) 24
Pests, Diseases and Weeds

• With warmer temperatures,

pests, diseases and weeds may:
– Expand northward into climate-
stressed areas
– Survive warming winters better
– Require increased use of pesticides
and herbicides

(Sources: Beddow, Pardey and Seeley, 2012; Walthall et al,

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2012; NCADAC, 2013)
 Warmer Summers
Warmer summers and
Higher maximum temperatures may
• Increase crop yields with some warming
• Decrease crop yields with too much warming

(Sources: Oxfam Issue Briefing, 2012; Walthall et al, 2012;

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Seeley, 2008)
Warmer Nights & Minimum
Temps
Warmer nights and higher
minimum temperatures may
• Stress some plants, taxing their ability
to grow and resulting in lower yields
• Cause some plants, such as tomatoes,
to ripen faster
• Disturb pollination and lower crop
productivity and reduce quality

(Sources: Walthall et al, 2012; Hanks, 2013;

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NCADAC, 2013)
Nutritional Value
Globally, the nutritional
value of some foods may
change due to
• Elevated atmospheric CO2
(increased carbohydrates,
decreased protein & vitamins)
• Changes in cultivated varieties
(favor yield over nutrient
content)

(Sources: Davis, Epp and Riordan, 2004; Taub, Miller

and Allen, 2008; NCADAC, 2013) 28
As CO2 concentrations increase,:

• plants typically show increased concentrations of carbon in their

tissues, with correspondingly reduced concentrations of other
elements, including nitrogen, phosphorus and several trace
elements.
• Along with changes in elemental composition, proteins decrease
and relatively carbon-rich molecules such as carbohydrates
increase in concentration. Several authors note the possible
negative impact on human nutrition, particularly with regard to
micronutrients such as zinc and iodine.
Temperature Effects on Water Demand

Complex interactions of temperature and precipitation

Effects of Increased Evapotranspiration
in Three Scenarios

Existing Amounts Inadequate

of Precipitation Water
Increased
Evapo-
Increased transpiration Increased Healthy Crop
Temperature and Crop Precipitation Growth
Water
Demand/Use Potentially
Increased CO2 Healthy Crop
Growth

(Sources: Walthall et al, 2012; Reich, 2012; NCADAC, 2013) 30

Precipitation Effects: Flooding
Increased precipitation has been
driven by intensification of the
heaviest rainfalls, resulting in:
• Flooded fields and damaged
crops
• Increased runoff and reduced
infiltration of water for crop use
• Increased soil erosion, leading to
– Soil nutrient loss
– Sediment contamination of
nearby water bodies
Source: Farm Industry News
May 24, 2012

(Sources: NCADAC, 2013; Walthall et al, 2012) 31

 Runoff and Erosion

Runoff and erosion will

be affected most by
• High rainfall intensity
• Soil quality
• Low crop cover in spring
and fall
Source: MPR News photos of the week, June 15, 2012
• Land use (Photo courtesy of Pat Baskfield )

(Sources: Nearing et al, 2005, Sinha and Cherkauer, 2010) 32

• Crop Production
• Livestock: Cattle, Dairy Animals, Swine &
Poultry
• Culturally Important Foods
• Other Issues
• Adaptation & Best Management Practices

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LIVESTOCK: CATTLE, DAIRY
ANIMALS, SWINE & POULTRY
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Climate Change Impacts

Changing climatic conditions affect animal

agriculture in four primary ways:
1. Feed-grain production, availability, and price
2. Pastures and forage crop production and
quality
3. Animal health, growth, and reproduction
4. Disease and pest distributions

(Source: NCADAC, 2013) 35

 Animal Health
• Animal health is highly susceptible to temperature:
– Heat stress negatively affects cattle, swine and
poultry health
– Warmer winters may reduce mortality but will
likely be offset by greater mortality in hotter
summers

(Source: NCADAC, 2013)

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 Animal Growth &
Reproduction
• Hotter temperatures may reduce productivity
of livestock and dairy animals
– Animals lose appetite, gain weight slower and
take longer to get to market
– Production decreases, including milk from dairy
cattle and eggs from poultry
– Reproduction decreases
resulting in smaller herds

(Source: CCSP, 2008) 37

Disease and Pest Distributions

• Climate change may

affect
– Frequency, intensity, or
distribution of animal
diseases and pests
– Livestock’s resistance to
infections and diseases

(Source: Walthall, 2012) 38

The ranges of marine species have shifted northward as waters
have warmed. Source: USGCRP (2009)
• Crop Production
• Livestock: Cattle, Dairy Animals, Swine &
Poultry
• Culturally Important Foods
• Other Issues
• Adaptation & Best Management Practices

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Culturally Important Foods

• Climate change will affect the availability and

affordability of social and cultural foods
– Mental health effects
– Physical health effects
• Shortages of culturally important foods for
tribal community members
– Natural wild Rice
– Moose
– Traditional, cold-water fish

(Sources: IDWG on Climate Change, 2008; NCADAC, 2013) 41

• Crop Production
• Livestock: Cattle, Dairy Animals, Swine &
Poultry
• Culturally Important Foods
• Other Issues
• Adaptation & Best Management Practices

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OTHER ISSUES

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 Food Prices
• Food prices may rise if
• Production declines
• Prices of inputs
increase (such as,
petroleum-based
fertilizers and
pesticides)
• Food insecurity
increases with rising
food prices
(IDWG on Climate Change, 2008;
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NCADAC, 2013)
 Food System Delivery
Climate change impact on food
system delivery:
• Damage to transport and
distribution infrastructure from
extreme weather events
• Barging/shipping: low water
levels and Lake Superior

(Source: IDWG on Climate Change, 2008) Image source: 45

Pete Markham
Food Safety
Impacts of climate change on
food safety:
• Increased need of climate control
to prevent food spoilage
• Increased runoff or flooding from
livestock to nearby fields may
cause crop contamination and
damage to stored food

(Sources: IDWG on Climate Change, 2008; Portier et al, 2010) 46

Climate change trends and effects; threats and
opportunities and related regional plans
Climate Change impact on agriculture
in Turkey
Temperature Trend
Precipitation
Drought Map in Turkey

References: Milenyum Endüstri Ve Havacılık

According to the NASA if the climate change counstantly proceeding as today Turkey probably will turn to
desert by 2040

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GAP Project
Soil Salinity Triggered by Irrigation and Hot Climate