Monday, May 13, 2024

REP-019

KSE-100: Closes above 73K amidst good volume AKD SECURITIES LIMITED

Market View — Technical

The index opened on a positive note and remained bullish throughout the last trading session. The local bourse posted a high of 791pts, a
and concluded with a gain of 427pts to settle at 73,086pts. The volumes witnessed in the last trading session were higher than the previous
trading session. Among the momentum Oscillators, RSI (Relative Strength Index) 71.00 which is above the neutral level and near overbought
TECHNICAL VIEW

reading. The Index is currently trading above leading moving averages. Daily parabolic SAR (Stop and Reverse) is currently positioned below
the current level of the Index which is viewed as positive sign.
The chart formation depicts that the index may find initial support near 72,500. A break below mentioned support can result into further
weakness towards 72,200 and 71,800pts level. Alternatively, the index can face resistance near 73,500pts initially and then head towards
73,800 and 74,000 area. It is recommended to accumulate positions on weakness or near support zone.
Stochas tic Os cillator (74.6634)
50

Relative Strength Index (70.9957)

50

KSE100 (72,888.93, 73,449.37, 72,876.83, 73,085.50, +427.453), Parabolic SAR (70,720.78) 76000
75000
73,449 74000
73,300
73000
72000
71000
70000
69000
67,093 68000
AKD Securities Limited

66,134 67000
65,334 66000
65000
64000
63,857 63000
62000
61000
60000
59000
58,758 59,192 58000
57000
56000
55000
54000
53000
52000
51000
50000
49000

20 27 4 11 18 26 1 8 15 22 29 6 12 19 26 4 11 18 25 1 8 22 29 6 13 20 27
Decem ber 2024 February March April May

Support Level 1 Support Level 2 Support Level 3

72,500 72,200 71,800

Resistance Level 1 Resistance Level 2 Resistance Level 3

73,500 73,800 74,000

Buy On Weakness calls

RSI and Stochastic Indicators
Scrips Buy Target Stop Closing Upper Lower
range Loss lock lock 100 100
80
PIBTL 6.70 7.20 6.50 6.93 7.93 5.93 80
60
PIOC 162.50 174.00 155.00 164.97 177.34 152.60 40
60
20
ANL 8.90 9.70 8.60 9.08 10.08 8.08
0 40
PIBTL PIOC ANL DGKC MUGHAL
DGKC 90.50 96.00 88.00 90.84 97.65 84.03
Stochastic RSI (RHS)
MUGHAL 75.60 81.00 72.20 76.22 81.94 70.50

Sell on Strength calls

RSI and Stochastic Indicators
Scrips Sell Target Stop Closing Upper Lower
range Loss lock lock
40
PRL 27.70 26.50 28.40 27.34 29.39 25.29
55
TPL 5.45 5.20 5.60 5.36 6.36 4.36 20

SHEL 147.00 143.00 150.00 146.13 157.09 135.17

0 35
EFERT 147.70 138.00 150.00 145.14 156.03 134.25 PRL TPL SHEL EFERT TELE
Stochastic RSI (RHS)
TELE 9.10 8.30 9.50 8.82 9.82 7.82

Kamal Ahmed
kamal.ahmed@akdsl.com 111-253-111 EXT:604
AKD Securities Limited
602, Continental Trade Centre Clifton Block 8, Karachi, Pakistan.
research@akdsl.com
AKD RESEARCH

Synopsis
Symbol Closing Change Change Trading Support Resistance Stop loss
(PKR) % Points Stance S1 S2 S3 PIVOT R1 R2 R3 Below Above
Banks Sector
MCB 203.21 -0.39% -0.80 Sell 202.23 201.24 199.49 203.98 204.97 206.72 207.71 201.24 206.72
HBL 112.96 -0.53% -0.60 Sell 112.37 111.79 111.07 113.09 113.67 114.39 114.97 111.79 114.39
UBL 195.01 0.33% 0.65 Buy 193.34 191.67 190.34 194.67 196.34 197.67 199.34 191.67 197.67
MEBL 211.32 0.14% 0.29 Sell 210.23 209.14 207.78 211.59 212.68 214.04 215.13 209.14 214.04
NBP 39.26 0.01 0.57 Sell 38.90 38.55 38.18 39.27 39.62 39.99 40.34 38.55 39.99
BAFL 58.57 -1.45% -0.86 Sell 57.89 57.21 56.31 58.79 59.47 60.37 61.05 57.21 60.37
BOP 4.99 0.00 -0.02 Sell 4.95 4.90 4.85 5.00 5.05 5.10 5.15 4.90 5.10
BIPL 21.86 -0.41% -0.09 Sell 21.74 21.61 21.39 21.96 22.09 22.31 22.44 21.61 22.31
Oil & Gas Exploration
OGDC 133.91 0.34% 0.45 Sell 132.94 131.98 130.45 134.47 135.43 136.96 137.92 131.98 136.96
PPL 122.46 0.78% 0.95 Sell 121.09 119.72 118.14 122.67 124.04 125.62 126.99 119.72 125.62
MARI 2,681.57 -1.63% -44.33 Sell 2,662.41 2,643.26 2,611.51 2,694.16 2,713.31 2,745.06 2,764.21 2,643.26 2,745.06
POL 458.66 1.99% 8.95 Buy 452.86 447.05 443.61 456.30 462.11 465.55 471.36 447.05 465.55
Fertilizer
ENGRO 347.15 -2.23% -7.92 Buy 333.95 320.75 309.30 345.40 358.60 370.05 383.25 320.75 370.05
FFC 143.08 0.44% 0.62 Sell 142.42 141.77 141.03 143.16 143.81 144.55 145.20 141.77 144.55
EFERT 145.14 -2.28% -3.38 Sell 143.34 141.53 138.21 146.66 148.47 151.79 153.60 141.53 151.79
FATIMA 49.27 1.09% 0.53 Buy 48.19 47.12 46.21 49.10 50.17 51.08 52.15 47.12 51.08
FFBL 33.68 2.00% 0.66 Sell 33.12 32.55 31.99 33.68 34.25 34.81 35.38 32.55 34.81
Cement
LUCK 862.23 3.12% 26.12 Buy 844.15 826.08 811.15 859.08 877.15 892.08 910.15 826.08 892.08
DGKC 90.84 6.57% 5.60 Buy 87.77 84.70 82.84 89.63 92.70 94.56 97.63 84.70 94.56
MLCF 39.93 4.78% 1.82 Buy 38.76 37.58 36.77 39.57 40.75 41.56 42.74 37.58 41.56
KOHC 223.04 0.70% 1.55 Sell 220.36 217.68 212.86 225.18 227.86 232.68 235.36 217.68 232.68
FCCL 23.06 3.69% 0.82 Buy 22.38 21.71 21.10 22.99 23.66 24.27 24.94 21.71 24.27
CHCC 166.93 2.59% 4.21 Buy 162.56 158.19 153.87 166.88 171.25 175.57 179.94 158.19 175.57
PIOC 164.97 7.50% 11.51 Buy 157.66 150.34 146.69 161.31 168.63 172.28 179.60 150.34 172.28
ACPL 96.42 3.36% 3.13 Buy 94.73 93.05 91.65 96.13 97.81 99.21 100.89 93.05 99.21
Food & Personal Care Products
FFL 9.91 1.33% 0.13 Sell 9.78 9.65 9.51 9.92 10.05 10.19 10.32 9.65 10.19
TOMCL 34.04 1.19% 0.40 Buy 33.36 32.68 32.11 33.93 34.61 35.18 35.86 32.68 35.18
TREET 17.54 0.00% 0.00 Sell 17.36 17.18 16.91 17.63 17.81 18.08 18.26 17.18 18.08
Chemicals
EPCL 42.78 0.09% 0.04 Sell 42.65 42.53 42.35 42.83 42.95 43.13 43.25 42.53 43.13
LOTCHEM 18.25 1.45% 0.26 Buy 17.96 17.68 17.45 18.19 18.47 18.70 18.98 17.68 18.70
DOL 20.93 -0.52% -0.11 Sell 20.64 20.34 19.99 20.99 21.29 21.64 21.94 20.34 21.64
Automobile Assemblers
INDU 1,587.17 1.88% 29.25 Sell 1,534.83 1,482.48 1,429.90 1,587.41 1,639.76 1,692.34 1,744.69 1,482.48 1,692.34
HCAR 313.04 -0.53% -1.68 Sell 304.86 296.68 287.36 314.18 322.36 331.68 339.86 296.68 331.68
GHNI 288.70 -2.08% -6.13 Sell 279.13 269.57 258.13 290.57 300.13 311.57 321.13 269.57 311.57
Textiles
GATM 22.44 6.05% 1.28 Buy 21.42 20.41 19.75 22.08 23.09 23.75 24.76 20.41 23.75
NCL 28.64 7.51% 2.00 Buy 27.18 25.72 24.99 27.91 29.37 30.10 31.56 25.72 30.10
NML 73.48 5.68% 3.95 Buy 70.74 67.99 66.49 72.24 74.99 76.49 79.24 67.99 76.49
Power Generation & Distribution
HUBC 135.99 0.29% 0.39 Sell 134.54 133.10 130.94 136.70 138.14 140.30 141.74 133.10 140.30
NPL 35.89 2.69% 0.94 Buy 35.16 34.43 34.01 35.58 36.31 36.73 37.46 34.43 36.73
NCPL 29.89 3.50% 1.01 Buy 29.13 28.36 27.93 29.56 30.33 30.76 31.53 28.36 30.76
Oil & Gas Marketing
PSO 181.39 1.89% 3.36 Sell 179.06 176.73 174.26 181.53 183.86 186.33 188.66 176.73 186.33
SNGP 70.10 2.53% 1.73 Buy 69.03 67.96 67.12 69.87 70.94 71.78 72.85 67.96 71.78
SSGC 10.42 1.07% 0.11 Buy 10.28 10.14 10.00 10.42 10.56 10.70 10.84 10.14 10.70
APL 380.69 0.05% 0.18 Sell 377.83 374.96 370.93 381.86 384.73 388.76 391.63 374.96 388.76
Technology & Communication
WTL 1.55 2.65% 0.04 Sell 1.51 1.47 1.42 1.56 1.60 1.65 1.69 1.47 1.65
NETSOL 115.18 -1.05% -1.22 Sell 114.10 113.02 111.29 115.83 116.91 118.64 119.72 113.02 118.64
AVN 57.51 -0.52% -0.30 Sell 56.77 56.03 55.06 57.74 58.48 59.45 60.19 56.03 59.45
TRG 66.41 1.82% 1.19 Sell 64.89 63.36 61.71 66.54 68.07 69.72 71.25 63.36 69.72
HUMNL 9.70 -3.29% -0.33 Sell 9.06 8.41 7.43 10.04 10.69 11.67 12.32 8.41 11.67
SYS 388.44 -0.15% -0.58 Buy 385.33 382.21 379.43 388.11 391.23 394.01 397.13 382.21 394.01
Engineering
ISL 75.32 3.18% 2.32 Buy 72.91 70.51 68.91 74.51 76.91 78.51 80.91 70.51 78.51
MUGHAL 76.22 7.26% 5.16 Buy 72.69 69.16 67.31 74.54 78.07 79.92 83.45 69.16 79.92
ASTL 26.03 2.20% 0.56 Buy 25.30 24.58 23.85 26.03 26.75 27.48 28.20 24.58 27.48
ASL 7.82 4.97% 0.37 Buy 7.58 7.34 7.18 7.74 7.98 8.14 8.38 7.34 8.14
Refinery
PRL 27.34 0.74% 0.20 Sell 26.96 26.59 26.16 27.39 27.76 28.19 28.56 26.59 28.19
ATRL 386.34 -0.56% -2.18 Sell 383.39 380.45 375.38 388.46 391.40 396.47 399.41 380.45 396.47
NRL 303.98 -0.42% -1.28 Sell 300.79 297.60 292.70 305.69 308.88 313.78 316.97 297.60 313.78

Source: PSX & AKD Research

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AKD RESEARCH
GLOSSARY OF TERMS
Support: Support is the level at which the stock is likely to see increased interest from buyers. The buying support will prevent the stock from
falling further.

Resistance: Resistance is the level at which the stock is likely to see increased interest from sellers. The selling pressure will preven t the
stock from rising further.

RSI: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a momentum oscillator that ranges from 0 to 100. It compares the extent of the stock's recent price
movements by evaluating recent gains and losses. Stocks with RSI above 70 could be considered overbought, and below 30 could be consid-
ered oversold. Generally, if the RSI falls below 70, it is a bearish signal. Conversely, if the RSI of a stock rises above 30 it is considered bullish.
The RSI used is of 14 days.

Bollinger Bands: A Bollinger Band, developed by famous technical trader John Bollinger, is plotted two standard deviations away from a sim-
ple moving average. BB highly popular technical analysis technique. Many traders believe the closer the prices move to the upper band, the
more overbought the market, and the closer the prices move to the lower band, the more oversold the market.

MACD: MACD shows the relationship between a longer period moving average and a short period Moving average of a stock’s price. Gener-
ally, the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) and the 12-day EMA are used to calculate MACD.

EMA: Exponential moving average (EMA) is the weighted average of the prices of a given security where higher weights are given to recent
data points. EMA is used to analyze the trend of a stock.

SMA: A simple moving average (SMA) is the average of the closing price of a security for a given period.
The parabolic SAR: is a technical indicator used to determine the price direction of an asset, as well as draw attention to when the price di-
rection is changing. Sometimes known as the "stop and reversal system," the parabolic SAR was developed by J. Welles Wilder Jr., creator of
the relative strength index (RSI).

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To arrive at our period end target prices, AKDS uses New Rating Definitions
Different valuation techniques (where applicable) including: Buy > 30% expected total return (Rf: 21% + Rp: 9%)
 Discounted Cash Flow (DCF, DDM) Neutral > 21% to < 30% expected total return
 Relative Valuation (P/E, P/B, P/S etc.) Sell < 21% expected total return (Rf: 21%)
 Equity & Asset return based methodologies (EVA, Residual In-
come etc.)

3
AKD RESEARCH
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