MÃ©todos Cuantitativos de Pronã Sticos 604B

Forecasting Moving averages - 3 period moving average
Enter the past demands in the data area
Num pds 3 To change the number of periods use the scrollbar, do not change the cell itself
Decimales 0
Data Forecasts and Error Analysis
Mes ventas cobertizos Forecast Error Absolute Squared Abs Pct Err
Enero 10
Febrero 12
Marzo 13
Abril 16 12 11.6666667 4.33333333 4.33333333 18.7777778 27.08%
Mayo 19 14 13.6666667 5.33333333 5.33333333 28.4444444 28.07%
Junio 23 16 16 7 7 49 30.43%
Julio 26 19 19.3333333 6.66666667 6.66666667 44.4444444 25.64%
Agosto 30 23 22.6666667 7.33333333 7.33333333 53.7777778 24.44%
Septiembre 28 26 26.3333333 1.66666667 1.66666667 2.77777778 05.95%
Octubre 18 28 28 -10 10 100 55.56%
Noviembre 16 25 25.3333333 -9.33333333 9.33333333 87.1111111 58.33%
Diciembre 14 21 20.6666667 -6.66666667 6.66666667 44.4444444 47.62%
Enero 16 Total 6.33333333 58.3333333 428.777778 303.13%
Average 0.7037037 6.48148148 47.6419753 0.33681564
Bias MAD MSE MAPE
SE 7.82649144
Next period 16
Conclusión: Para enero se pronostica vender 16 cobertizos

not change the cell itself
Tracking Signal
Abs Pct Err Cum Error Cum Abs ErrMad Track Signal (Cum Error/MAD)
4.33333333 4.33333333 4.33333333 1

9.66666667 9.66666667 4.83333333 2
16.6666667 16.6666667 5.55555556 3
23.3333333 23.3333333 5.83333333 4
30.6666667 30.6666667 6.13333333 5
32.3333333 32.3333333 5.38888889 6
22.3333333 42.3333333 6.04761905 3.69291339
13 51.6666667 6.45833333 2.01290323
6.33333333 58.3333333 6.48148148 0.97714286
33.68%
Forecasting
35
30
25
20
Value
15
10
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Time
ventas cobertizos Forecast

Forecasting Weighted moving averages - 3 period moving average
Enter the data in the shaded area. Enter weights in
INCREASING order from top to bottom.

Period Demand Weights Forecast Error Absolute
Period 1 3 periods ago
Period 4 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Average #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Bias MAD
SE
Next period #DIV/0!
Tracking Signal
Squared Abs Pct Err Cum Err Cum Abs Err Mad Track Signal (Cum Error/MAD)
#DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!

#DIV/0! #DIV/0! Forecasting
#DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
#DIV/0! #DIV/0!
12
MSE MAPE
#DIV/0! 10
Not enough data to compute the standard error
8
6
Value
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Time
Demand Forecast
um Error/MAD)
Forecasting Exponential smoothing
Enter alpha (between 0 and 1), enter the past demands in the shaded column then enter a
starting forecast. If the starting forecast is not in the first period then delete the error analysis
for all rows above the starting forecast.
Alpha
Period Demand Forecast Error Absolute Squared Abs Pct Err
Period 1 0 0 0 0 #DIV/0!
Period 2 0 0 0 0 #DIV/0!
Period 3 0 0 0 0 #DIV/0!
Period 4 0 0 0 0 #DIV/0!
Period 5 0 0 0 0 #DIV/0!
Period 6 0 0 0 0 #DIV/0!
Period 7 0 0 0 0 #DIV/0!
Period 8 0 0 0 0 #DIV/0!
Period 9 0 0 0 0 #DIV/0!
Total 0 0 0 #DIV/0!
Average 0 0 0 #DIV/0!
Bias MAD MSE MAPE
SE 0
Next period 0
Tracking Signal
Abs Pct Err Cum Error Cum Abs Err Mad Track Signal (Cum Error/MAD)
0 0 0 #DIV/0!
0 0 0 #DIV/0!
0 0 0 #DIV/0!
0 0 0 #DIV/0!
0 0 0 #DIV/0!
0 0 0 #DIV/0!
0 0 0 #DIV/0!
0 0 0 #DIV/0!
Forecasting
1
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
Value
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Time
Demand Forecast
Forecasting Exponential smoothing
Enter alpha (between 0 and 1), enter the past demands in the shaded column then enter a
starting forecast. If the starting forecast is not in the first period then delete the error analysis
for all rows above the starting forecast.
Alpha
Period Demand Forecast Error Absolute Squared Abs Pct Err
Period 1 0 0 0 0 #DIV/0!
Period 2 0 0 0 0 #DIV/0!
Period 3 0 0 0 0 #DIV/0!
Period 4 0 0 0 0 #DIV/0!
Period 5 0 0 0 0 #DIV/0!
Period 6 0 0 0 0 #DIV/0!
Period 7 0 0 0 0 #DIV/0!
Period 8 0 0 0 0 #DIV/0!
Period 9 0 0 0 0 #DIV/0!
Total 0 0 0 #DIV/0!
Average 0 0 0 #DIV/0!
Bias MAD MSE MAPE
SE 0
Next period 0
Tracking Signal
Abs Pct Err Cum Error Cum Abs Err Mad Track Signal (Cum Error/MAD)
0 0 0 #DIV/0!
0 0 0 #DIV/0!
0 0 0 #DIV/0!
0 0 0 #DIV/0!
0 0 0 #DIV/0!
0 0 0 #DIV/0!
0 0 0 #DIV/0!
0 0 0 #DIV/0!
Forecasting
1
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
Value
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Time
Demand Forecast
Forecasting Trend Projection
Alpha
Beta
Forecast
Smoothed Smoothed Including
Period Demand Forecast, Ft Trend, Tt Trend, FITt Error Absolute
Period 1 0 0 0 0
Period 2 0 0 0 0 0
Period 3 0 0 0
Period 4 0 0 0
Period 5 0 0 0
Period 6 0 0 0
Period 7 0 0 0
Period 8 0 0 0
Period 9 0 0 0
Period 10 0 0 0
Total 0 0
Average 0 0
Bias MAD
SE
Tracking Signal
Track Signal
(Cum
Squared Abs Pct Err Cum error Cum Abs Err Mad error/MAD)
0 #DIV/0!
0 #DIV/0! 0 0 0 #DIV/0!
0 #DIV/0! 0 0 0 #DIV/0!
0 #DIV/0! 0 0 0 #DIV/0!
0 #DIV/0! 0 0 0 #DIV/0!
0 #DIV/0! 0 0 0 #DIV/0!
0 #DIV/0! 0 0 0 #DIV/0!
0 #DIV/0! 0 0 0 #DIV/0!
0 #DIV/0! 0 0 0 #DIV/0!
0 #DIV/0! 0 0 0 #DIV/0!
0 #DIV/0!
0 #DIV/0!
MSE MAPE
0
Forecasting Trend projection
If this is trend analysis then simply enter the past demands in the
demand column. If this is causal regression then enter the y,x pairs
with y first and enter a new value of x at the bottom in order to
forecast y.

Period Demand (y) Period(x) Forecast Error Absolute Squared
Period 1 1 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
Total #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
Intercept #VALUE! Average #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
Slope #VALUE! Bias MAD MSE
SE #VALUE!
R
Future perio #VALUE! 8
Correlation 12#VALUE!
Coefficient of determination 10#VALUE!
8
6
4
2
0
0 1 2 3
Column
Tracking Signal
Abs Pct Err Cum error Cum Abs Err Mad Track Signal (Cum error/MAD)
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE!
#VALUE!
MAPE
Regression
2
0
8
6
4
2
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Column B Linear (Column B)

MÃ©todos Cuantitativos de Pronã Sticos 604B

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MÃ©todos Cuantitativos de Pronã Sticos 604B

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Forecasting Moving averages - 3 period moving average

Enter the past demands in the data area

Conclusión: Para enero se pronostica vender 16 cobertizos

4.33333333 4.33333333 4.33333333 1

ventas cobertizos Forecast

Data Forecasts and Error Analysis

#DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!

Data Forecasts and Error Analysis

Column B Linear (Column B)

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