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    SR18

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    South China Sea disputes

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    SR18

    Uploaded by

    Ali Ahmed
    8 views19 pages
    South China Sea disputes

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    © © All Rights Reserved

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    South China Sea disputes

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    © All Rights Reserved
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    Download as pdf
    8 views19 pages

    SR18

    Uploaded by

    Ali Ahmed
    South China Sea disputes

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    © All Rights Reserved
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    Anour rm Stub Grour “The United Sorat of Pace hacon- “Tis repo, thre by Inte Progen Offi Set Seder, deve on tht ee ‘Ssessons wel proeege Fo + ‘he repr do ot aecemiy epee the ‘ewofthe Usted Sela o Pec, ‘eich des aradvote pele police Fermore information rerio te meting fever or this por, plete conact Scot Snyder 20a) 229008 Angee 198 The South China Sea Dispute: Prospects for Preventive Diplomacy |4 Spectal Report of \the United States Institute of Peace ‘Key Points = The disputed tervitoral claims inthe South China Sea remain a dan- ous source of potential conflict in the absence of preventive mea ies to forestall « miliary or political crisis. Three aerods of height- ened tension over the Spratly Islands within the past ten years offer a clear warning sign ofthe rsk of future confrontation if the core issues remain unresolved. Itis in the interest of ll the clazmants to actively ‘eek eolutions to the disputes through politcal negotiations to avoid future miliary conflict. All the claimants have an interest in partcipat- Jing in a preventive diplomatic approach to the South China Ses—one that takes into account the interests of all claimants—to minimize the risk of fature crises, rather than resorting toa more estly approach of nilitary ation. lw 1c may sill be possible to find a politcal, “win-win” retelement. Ifthe political wll ean be generated to each « negotiated ectlement, there is {window of opportunity to pursue progress. Military confice would threaten the interests of all parties to che dispute, since the politcal costs of military escalation would be higher than any single party is eur- rently willing ro bear. No country inthe region currently possesses the nilitary capabilities needed to assere and maintain its claims, elations inthe rgion are generally cooperative and no claimaat as yet dscov- cred commercially viable quantities of ol or natural gs. Tn ime, how ever, all these factors are subject to change, especialy as China, and perhaps other claimants acquire the military strengta to impose theit aims by threat or use of military force. '= Given the nature and complexity ofthe various legal claims to the lands and concerns about the regional balance of power, no purely legal ‘process is likely to be sufficient to achieve a settlement, alchough the testablishment and acceptance of nterntional legal precedents, such as those contained in the UN Convention on the Law ofthe Sea, may pro- 1550 M SrazeT, NAW, Suite 700 + WaswiNerow, DC 20005-1708 « Powe 202/487-1700 » Fax 202/429-6063 The level of attention to the conflicting claims in the South China Sea bas increased in proportion to estimates of the arca’s resource development potenti vide a necessary foundation forthe negotiation of key iswes. For ‘ance, Beijing's eatification ofthe Law ofthe Sea Convention can be een ab a major step toward achieving « negotiated settlement in the Spratly Islands dispote, although the National People's Congress s- multancously promulgated baselines surrounding the Paracel Islands {hat defy conventional international legal interpretations. Ta the final nulysi, 4 poise’ setlement is the only realistic means of resolving ‘these complex isues. “The level of attention tothe conflicting claims in the South China Sea has increased in proportion to estimates of the areas resource devel- ‘opment potential. Little attention had been given to sovereignty the South China Sea until the 1960s and 1970s, when internati ‘companies began prospecting in the region. As specul ble hydrocarbon resources has grown, the claimants have scrambled toveinforce their claims, leading to heightened tensions and period Cconfict Although hydrocarbon potential has been the main focus of the disputants until now, fisheries and other marine resources, navign- ‘oval safety, and strategic and environmental concerns may become ‘equaly critical issues in the fore. [A range of preventive diplomatic mechanisms and approaches might be used to dampen tensions, forestall the outbreak of conflict in the ‘South China Sea, and provide the basis fora politcal seclement. The Indonesian-hosted Workshops on Managing Potential Conflicts in the ‘South China Sea have provided important opportunities for coopers- tive action on technical issues, but it has thus far not been possible co generate any meaningful discussion in these meeting en the critical overeigntyfseue. Nevertheless, an effort might be made ro upgrade these informal meetings to address such questions as sovereignty oF ‘mechanisms fr joint exploration of resources. ‘A variety of supplementary approsches tothe Indonesian workshops ‘ould be considered. For example, creation of an Eminent Persons Group, possibly composed of high-level representatives from the rnoncliimant members ofthe Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), hes been suggested to jump-start political tks a ‘new political channels for negotiation. Another possibility is medis ‘don by an ad hoc wibunal or nonoffical third party ifthe claimants themselves are willing (accept such a negotiation process to facilitate resolution oftersitoral claims. Ifthe partes can agree © an equitable Epproich by which to shelve sovereigney issues, it may be posible 0 ‘reite joint multilateral development authority to explo‘ resources in the disputed ares. -AKernatively, recent development suggest that might be possible co rete bilateral claims in the South China Sea trea before tackling areasin which multiple claims overlap. The ext- al question, however is whether the isputant can find the political ‘wll to come toa lasting negotiated settlement. Ikisin the US. interes to maintain a neutral postion onthe legal mer~ ite ofthe various territorial claims, insisting thatthe claimants peace fully resolve conflicting territorial claims in the South China Sea con- sistent with international law, including the UN Convention on the Law ofthe Ses. Without becoming party tothe dispute, Washington right be able to quietly encourage diplomatic efforts among the claim- {nts themselves to find a lasting, peaceful resolution ro the outstand: ing South China Sea issues. sn the troubled nature of US.-Chinese relations at presents lead- {ng and poblic US. role in trying to resolve the dispate over the Spratly Islands ie likely to be counterproductive because China may have less, cetive to be forthcoming if the isue seems to become “American ined” Nevertheless, the United Stats has vital interests at stake in lading maintaining freedom of navigation, encourag- ithe consolidation ofthe rule of law in the management of interna- tional maritime disputes, and protecting the redibiliy of US. forces ‘#4 balancing and subilising presence inthe Asia-Pacific region. While ms the United States has aninterescin retaining theca ness to dissuade any single claimant from imposing «solution to the

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