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Vunlerability
Climate Crisis

Prepared by Prof. Anthony Micallef & the Editorial Board

    

The Climate Crisis

The phenomenon of Climate Change may be de ned as ‘a signi cant variation of average
weather conditions over several decades or more. However, such changes in climate may
be seen to have two components namely, human-induced and natural climate change
(Figure 1). In this context, Climate Change has also been de ned as a “change observed in
the climate of a global, regional or sub-regional scale caused by natural processes and/or
human activity”.

Natural Climate Change refers to changes in the climate caused by the amount of
incoming and outgoing energy of the Earth; changes that are caused by natural elements
such as the sun’s intensity, the earth’s orbit, volcanic activity and naturally occurring
greenhouse gas concentrations. However, it is important to note that such in uences are
too minor or occurring too slowly to account for the rapid global warming recorded since
the industrial revolution.

Figure 1: Human and natural in uences on global warming (Source: United States Environmental Protection Agency.
Climate Change Science - Causes of Climate Change. https://www.epa.gov/climatechange-science/causes-climate-
change)

When referring to human-induced Climate Change, the use of the term Climate Change has
been criticized by many as portraying an insuf cient urgency to its dire consequences,
related to what is in essence, a disruption of the natural climate.

To this end, it is more appropriate to use the term Climate Crisis when referring to the
increasingly alarming weather perturbations that have been noted since the onset of the
industrial revolution which resulted in accelerated combustion of fossil fuels, increased
release of aerosols and greenhouse gases, changing land-use and deforestation. The
continued emission of greenhouse gases resulted in a global warming; a rise in the global
average temperature near the earth’s surface. The Climate Crisis refers to a host of
weather-related perturbations arising from global warming, such as sea-level rise,
hurricanes and storm surges of increasing intensity, changes in precipitation patterns and
oods. Unlike other hazards that become manifest sporadically, the Climate Crisis has
been active constantly for a signi cant number of decades and now threatens the stability
of the earth system as a whole.

According to World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) reports, the emission of

greenhouse gases from human activities in 2021 reached an all-time high, and there seems
to be no indication of a decline. Based on a decade-long overview of United Nations
Environment Programme (UNEP) Emission Gap reports, it appears that we are likely to
continue on the same frightening path of business-as-usual.

The Paris Agreement on Climate Change, established in 2015, aimed to limit eventual
warming to below 2 degrees Celsius and encouraged efforts to restrict the increase to 1.5
degrees Celsius. However, the four years prior to 2019 have been recorded as the hottest
on record. In a report released by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) in
September 2019, it was noted that we had already surpassed preindustrial levels by at
least one (1) degree Celsius, which is dangerously close to what scientists consider to be
an unacceptable risk. Failure to reduce global emissions may result in temperatures
increasing by over three (3) degrees Celsius by the year 2100, leading to further
irreversible harm to our ecosystems.

The adverse impacts of increasing temperatures on the natural world, biodiversity, and
human well-being are becoming more apparent. 2016 and 2020 were some of the warmest
on record since annual surface temperature data started being collected in 1880. In 2022,
the planet was plagued by heatwaves that shattered previous records. Data from the
National Center for Environmental Information of the United States of America shows that
the global temperature on the earth’s surface was above the 20th-century average by
0.82°C (1.48°F) during the decade leading up to 2020. It is evident that urgent action is
needed to address this global crisis.

Human-induced climate change has been referred to as the most signi cant problem of
our era, and we nd ourselves at a critical juncture. The consequences of human-induced
climate change, such as changing weather patterns that jeopardize food production, and
escalating sea levels that heighten the danger of disastrous oods, are widespread and
unparalleled in magnitude. If immediate and drastic measures are not taken, it will be
increasingly challenging and costly to adapt to these repercussions in the future.

In response to a growing realization of this global threat, there have been a considerable
number of initiatives to address it. However, we are unfortunately far from achieving this
goal. To quote the words of the United Nations’ Secretary-General António Guterres at the
2019 Climate Action Summit, “the climate emergency is a race we are losing, but it is a race
we can win”.

Note of clari cation

Throughout the following section on The Climate Crisis, reference has been made to past
studies that have misleadingly used the term Climate Change when speci cally referring to
human-induced Climate Change and/or Global Warming.

Therefore, to avoid misconception throughout this article, it should be clari ed that all
subsequent reference to the term Climate Change (as used in past studies) should be
understood to refer to the human-induced component of climate change, which has in
essence, resulted in (human-induced) Global Warming.

The Climate Crisis results from various increasingly hazardous phenomena arising from
Global Warming that has resulted in weather perturbations of growing severity.

Recent events of the Climate Crisis

Climate Crisis warnings

The upcoming ve years are projected to be the warmest period ever recorded in human
history.

According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), 2016 was the hottest year ever
recorded due to both a strong El Niño phenomenon and human activities contributing to
greenhouse gas emissions. However, it has been postulated that even a relatively weak
event in 2023 could lead to new records for the warmest year in 2023 and 2024.

The UN’s World Meteorological Organization (WMO) reported that while the eight hottest
years on record occurred between 2015 and 2022, the period from 2023 to 2027 is highly
likely to be even warmer. This alarming prediction is attributed a warming El Nino, that
will, in conjunction with human-induced climate change, raise temperatures beyond the
targets outlined in the 2015 Paris Agreement on Climate Change. This international
agreement aimed to limit global warming to “well below” two degrees Celsius above pre-
industrial levels (measured between 1850 and 1900), and preferably to 1.5°C. The
consequences of such temperature increases will have wide-ranging impacts on health,
food security, water management, and the environment.

Flooding

Over a period of six days (1 – 17 May, 2023), the region of Emilia-Romagna in Italy
experienced two consecutive events of heavy rainfall totaling 80 hours of continuous rain.
In the aftermath of these events, there were a total of 379 landslides across 57 different
municipalities, resulting in the closure of 672 roads. Among these, 414 roads were
completely blocked, which isolated parts of the rural areas. As a consequence of the
severe conditions, approximately 23,000 people had to be evacuated from various areas,
including Ravenna, Forlì, Bologna, and Rimini. The impact was particularly devastating in
the community of Conselice, experiencing three separate impacts from these events.
Additionally, in Faenza, the situation was dire with water levels rising to the second oor
of some houses, requiring urgent and substantial intervention.

Heatwaves

Scientists have determined that the April 2023 heatwave in the western Mediterranean
(across Spain, Portugal, Morocco and Algeria), which set new temperature records, would
have been nearly impossible without the presence of the climate crisis. The researchers
estimated that global heating increased the likelihood of this extreme event by at least
100 times. Early-year heatwaves were identi ed as particularly detrimental as people were
less prepared compared to the summer season. Furthermore, the heatwave worsened the
plight of farmers who were already grappling with a prolonged drought, and it occurred at
a critical stage in the crop-growing season, especially for wheat.

The accelerated rise in extreme temperatures in the area, are particularly concerning as
they surpassed predictions made by climate models. Regrettably, the Mediterranean
stands as one of Europe’s most susceptible regions to the effects of human-induced
climate change. Unless greenhouse gas emissions are halted, the future holds a bleak
prospect of increasingly frequent and severe heatwaves.

According to the July 2022 Climate Bulletin released by the Copernicus Climate Change
Service, it was stated that July was among the top three hottest months on a global scale
and ranked as the sixth warmest in Europe (Figure 2). In Greenland, temperatures were
observed to be 8oC higher than the average.

Figure 2: Successive heatwave events in Europe since 2000.

The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) State of the Global

Climate report for 2022, identi ed some additional and very worrying
trends
Greenhouse gas emissions

During 2021, carbon dioxide levels reached 149% of pre-industrial levels (1850-1900),
methane levels were at 262% (making it 25 times more effective than carbon dioxide in
trapping heat in the atmosphere), and nitrous oxide levels were at 124%. Notably, the
increase in methane from 2020 to 2021 was the largest on record (Figure 3). Such
greenhouse gas emissions continued rise during 2022.

Figure 3: Importance of methane emissions to the Climate Crisis. This image is based on International Monetary
Fund staff calculations and excludes emissions from land-use and changes to land-use. Source: International
Monetary Fund, https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2022/11/02/methane-emissions-must-fall-for-world-to-hit-
temperature-targets

Increasing temperatures

In 2022, the Earth was approximately 1.15 ± 0.13 °C hotter than the pre-industrial average,
marking the last 8 years as the warmest on record. Despite the presence of cooling La Niña
conditions, 2022 ranked as the 5th or 6th warmest year.

During 2022, signi cant regions experiencing above normal precipitation included large
portions of Asia, the south-west Paci c, parts of northern South America and the
Caribbean, the eastern Sahel region, sections of southern Africa, Sudan, and eastern
Europe. Conversely, areas with rainfall de cits encompassed western and central Europe,
northwest Africa, parts of the Middle East, Central Asia and the Himalayas, Eastern Africa
and Madagascar, central and southern South America, as well as central and western
North America.

Ocean warming

Ocean warming is particularly concerning as changes happening now are likely to be

irreversible on centennial to millennial time scales. Records show that further ocean
warming occurred during 2022, and that this trend is expected to continue well into the
future.

Sea level rise

Over the course of satellite (altimeter) monitoring spanning 30 years, the ocean has
experienced an average annual increase in sea level of around 3.4 ± 0.3 mm. Furthermore,
in the year 2022, there was a continuation of the global rise in mean sea level.

Arctic and Antarctic Sea Ice

Throughout the majority of 2022, the extent of Arctic sea ice remained below the average
observed over an extended period.

In September, speci cally, the extent was 0.71 million km² lower than the long-term
average, which marked the 11th lowest monthly minimum ice extent recorded by satellites.
On February 25, 2022, the extent of Antarctic sea ice reached a historic low of 1.92 million
km², nearly 1 million km² less than the average observed between 1991 and 2020.

Greenland Ice Sheet

For 26 consecutive years, the Greenland Ice Sheet has experienced a continuous decline in
its total mass balance. On a global scale, glaciers have been steadily losing mass since the
commencement of recorded data.

Extreme Events

2022 witnessed an extraordinary year of weather phenomena. Climate-related incidents

were characterized by unprecedented dry spells, scorching heatwaves, massive forest res,
deluges, and an unprecedentedly low level of Antarctic sea ice. The initial days of 2023,
including the warmest January 1 ever recorded, serve as evidence that the pattern of
severe climate and weather events persists. Last year, the availability of excess or
inadequate rainfall played a signi cant role in numerous extreme weather or climate
occurrences, posing severe threats to entire communities and impacting lives through the
creation of food and water insecurity in various regions. Prolonged droughts, combined
with record-breaking temperatures, contributed to an escalated risk of wild res, reaching
their peak during the summer season in Europe, the Mediterranean area, and the
northwestern United States.

Drought

The drought that occurred in Europe in 2022 may be the most severe in ve centuries. It
can be attributed to a signi cant de ciency of rainfall, coupled with a series of recurrent
heat waves that affected Europe from May to October. Based on the Combined Drought
Indicator published by the European Drought Observatory (EDO), over 25% of the EU
territory was marked with an alert symbol at the start of September. For instance, in
France, the water levels in rivers and reservoirs reached exceptionally low levels,
prompting the country’s authorities to implement measures to restrict the water supply.
As a result, in July 2022, 90 out of 96 administrative departments were impacted.

Sea ice extent

According to the Copernicus Climate Change Service, the Antarctic sea ice experienced an
alarming lowest monthly extent in June and July, as observed in 44 years of satellite data
records. It was 9% below average in June and 7% below average in July. The concerning
pattern persisted throughout the year, as the levels of sea ice in the Arctic and Antarctic
remained below average, even in the last months of 2022. In September 2022, the average
monthly extent of Arctic sea ice reached 5.4 million square kilometers, which was 0.7
million square kilometers (11%) lower than the average recorded between 1991 and 2020.
In the case of the Antarctic, the average extent of sea ice was 18.5 million square
kilometers, indicating a 0.6 million square kilometer (3%) decrease compared to the
average from 1991 to 2020.

Wild res

The European Forest Fire Information Service (EFFIS) reported that as of December 17 2022,
over 786,000 hectares of land were burned in the European Union, with a total of more
than 2,700 forest res recorded. The amount of land burned in 2022 is nearly 2.5 times
greater than the average from 2006 to 2021. Spain experienced the most severe impact,
with over 300,000 hectares devastated by re. An image captured by one of the Copernicus
Sentinel-2 satellites on June 25 depicted a disastrous re that engulfed the province of
Zamora in the Castilla y León region. Another notable event last year was the marine
heatwave that occurred in the Mediterranean Sea during the summer. Anomalies in sea
surface temperatures reached peaks of ve degrees above the average in certain areas
along the northwestern coast of Italy and the southeastern coast of France.

+ 1. What is the Climate Crisis?

- 2. What types of climate changes (giving rise to the Climate Crisis) occur?

Long-term changes to the earth’s climate have been generated either by

natural causes or by human actions.

Natural long-term changes to the earth’s climate have been responsible for
very cold glacial and warmer inter-glacial periods on earth. At present, we are
experiencing an unusually extended inter-glacial period, and it is believed that
human-caused climate change has caused a delay in the onset of the next
glacial period. Experts estimate that this delay could result in the Holocene
inter-glacial period lasting for an additional 150,000 years.

Much more rapid long-term human-induced changes to the earth’s climate

initiated since the industrial revolution in the 1700’s as a consequence of
carbon dioxide and methane gas emissions that mainly result in global
warming and very signi cant variations of average weather condition
in uencing among other, extremes in weather-related phenomena such as
precipitation, drought, hurricanes and storm-surges (Figure 5).

Figure 5: Rapid long-term human induced climate changes. Source: Amrita Karmakar, 2021.

- 2.1. Generators of natural climate changes include:

Changes in the Earth’s Orbit and Rotation

The earth’s climate has been signi cantly in uenced by alterations in its
orbit and axis of rotation in the past. The Northern Hemisphere’s summer
sunshine, which is impacted by changes in the planet’s orbit, is believed to
be the primary cause of previous ice age cycles. These cycles include
prolonged cold temperature periods (ice ages) as well as shorter warmer
temperature periods (inter-glacial periods) between ice ages. During the
coldest part of the last ice age, the planet’s average global temperature
was approximately 11°F ( – 11,67 ° C) colder than it is currently. However,
during the highest point of the last interglacial period, the average global
temperature was only up to 2°F ( – 16,67 ° C) warmer than it is presently.

Variations in Solar Activity

Alterations in the amount of energy emitted by the sun can impact the
strength of the sunlight that reaches the surface of the earth. Although
such alterations can have an impact on the planet’s climate, they have had
a negligible impact on the observed changes in climate over the past few
decades. Beginning in 1978, satellites have been utilized to measure the
quantity of solar energy that reaches the earth, and these measurements
indicate that there has been no overall increase in the amount of energy
emitted by the sun, despite the fact that global surface temperatures have
risen.

Changes in the Earth’s Re ectivity

The absorption or re ection of sunlight on the planet is in uenced by its

surface and atmosphere. The sun’s energy is absorbed more by dark
surfaces like the ocean, forests, and soil, while light-colored surfaces like
snow, ice and clouds tend to re ect it. The earth absorbs about 70 percent
of the sunlight it receives. Historical evidence suggests that natural
alterations to the earth’s surface, such as the melting of sea and
continental ice, have previously affected climate change, often interacting
with other processes. These changes can serve as feedback mechanisms.

Volcanic Activity

Volcanoes have had a signi cant impact on the climate, with past volcanic
eruptions releasing large amounts of carbon dioxide. Some explosive
eruptions can release particles such as SO2 into the upper atmosphere,
which can re ect enough sunlight back into space to cool the planet’s
surface for a few years. These particles are referred to as cooling aerosols.
However, these aerosols do not cause long-term climate change as they
stay in the atmosphere for a shorter time than greenhouse gases.
Moreover, human activities emit over 100 times more carbon dioxide
annually than volcanoes do.

Changes in Naturally Occurring Carbon Dioxide Concentrations

Throughout the past few hundred thousand years, the levels of carbon
dioxide in the atmosphere have uctuated in correlation with the cycles of
glaciers. In warmer inter-glacial periods, carbon dioxide levels were
elevated, while in cooler glacial periods, carbon dioxide levels were
reduced. The earth’s surface and oceans’ temperature can impact the
natural sources and sinks of these gases, leading to alterations in the
concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. This uctuation in
concentrations has acted as a climate feedback mechanism, increasing the
magnitude of temperature changes resulting from long-term shifts in the
earth’s orbit.

+ 3. Why is the Climate Crisis occurring?

+ 4. Where does the Climate Crisis occur?
+ 5. What are the consequences of the Climate Crisis?
+ 6. Can the consequences of the Climate Crisis be in uenced by human behavior?

+ 7. Can the causes of the Climate Crisis be in uenced by human behavior?

+ 8. Can aspects of the Climate Crisis be predicted?

+ 9. Is there any way to prevent / slow down the Climate Crisis?
+ 10. Is there any way to mitigate the consequences of the Climate Crisis?
+ 11. What should be done during the Climate Crisis?
+ 12. What type of Climate Crisis maps exist?
+ References

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