QUASI REAL TIME STATE ESTIMATION OF DISTRIBUTION SYSTEMS USING
SOFT COMPUTING METHODOLOGY
V. Popov, P. Ekel, F. Farret, P. Fritzen, and A. Konig
Center of Technology, Federal University of Santa Maria
97.1 19-900 - Santa Maria - RS, Brazil, E-mail: popov@super.ufsm.br
ABSTRACT: An approach based on methodology of
soft computing is developed to estimate the quasi real
time modes of operation in distribution systems taking
into consideration uncertainty of information. The
algorithms for constructing electrical load curves on the
basis of processing short statistical samplings and expert
estimates, forming fuzzy load estimates using
aggregation of information, load coordination taking into
account real time remote load measurements, and load
forecasting are discussed in this paper. The effectiveness
of using various aspects of soft computing, including
heuristic procedures, apparatus of fuzzy set theory,
neural network models, rule-based systems for solving
mentioned above problems is demonstrated. The
proposed approach can provide valuable information to
distribution system operation and planning.
INTRODUCTION
In daily operation of distribution systems,
estimation of modes of operation is an important routine
task that must be performed by system operators.
Because there are too many branches and components in
distribution system, it is not economically justifiable to
put meter devices everywhere along feeders. Normally
the only formal information available (Figure I ) are: the
periodical load measurements (I) or/and data regarding
the monthly consumption of various groups of typical
consumers of load nodes (W), total feeder current oriand
energy recorded at substation (13. Since formal data
regarding the branch loads (which are vital for system
operation) are not readily available at present and in the
near future [ I ] [ 2 ] , it is necessary to devise an
appropriate approach, which allows one to take into
account formal as well as informal information to
estimate system load. So, the important specific of
modelling and controlling distribution systems consists
in availability of different (from the standpoint of
uncertainty) groups of parameters. For one group we can
obtain initial information sufficient for complete
statistical analysis, for second group there is a priory
information about distribution law, however, without
enough data to estimate the corresponding characteristics
of this law with necessary level of reliability, for third
group one can only use isolated periodical
0-7803-4434-0 / 98 /$lO.OO 0 1998 IEEE 414
measurements, for fourth group there is no formal
information at all. This should be considered as a natural
and unavoidable feature of complex systems such as
distribution systems [3]. Taking into account the factor
of uncertainty of information in shaping the
mathematical models serves as means for increasing the
adequacy of these models and, as a result, the factual
effectiveness of decisions that are based on their
analysis. In any case, when solving problems under
conditions of uncertainty of information, it is necessary
to bend efforts in seeking the possibilities for it
overcoming. This can be done by different way, in
particular, by using appropriate adequate mathematical
apparatus.
In the general case modelling distribution
systems includes several relatively independent stages:
constructing typical and integral load curves, estimating
node loads, load forecasting and load coordination taking
into consideration results of remote load measurements
at substations. Since availability of different (from the
standpoint of uncertainty) data, it is impossible to solve
all these problems correctly using unique mathematical
apparatus. Taking above into account, the use of various
aspects of soft computing in order to provide reliable and
adequate solution of wide range of problems of
operational control and planning, using available
information, is of major concern in this paper.
CONSTRUCTING INTERVAL LOAD CURVES
In practice of distribution systems analysis, so
called, typical load curves (that reflect change of energy
consumption of the most representative consumers) are
traditionally used (Lc., Figure 1). However, in the most
cases, when constructing typical load curves, volume of
the experimental data (measurements) does not allow
one to use the apparatus of probability theory from the
formal standpoint. Taking this into account, several
heuristic procedures (which, at least, do not need
information about distribution law) for processing short
statistical samplings to estimate ordinates of normalized
typical load curves can be proposed [4].Application of
the procedures considered below makes possible to take
into consideration all available data, to eliminate random
excessive values, can be used as a mean for partial One more approach allows one to construct
overcoming the uncertainty of information and, as a interval normalized typical load curves and estimate a
distribution of fuzziness for each ordinate (Figure 2), for
example [6], as follows

12. lr. lr. IC.

Fig. I

result, permits one to obtain more justified typical load -* *

curves with interval estimates of their ordinates. = I, - m,,
a,=a,, i f & > m,,
For example, for sifting random excessive d

values, in a sampling of a small volume, one uses a v = a v=m,2 --&,if I,*< m,.
quartile characteristics: median Me: the first and third
quartiles q, , 9;; the left and right quartile distances q2, ,I: is a average value of' sampling, Me and Mo are
= Me - q, and qj2 = q j - Me. We can determine the
median and modal estimates,.
Obtained interval typical load curves can be
relative deflection of the j-th measurement for the t-th
employed to approximate interval integral load curves of
ordinate as follows: any elements of distribution systems. When results of
Me-]; measurements (I or W, Figure 1) are available, we can
v.=-
tJ if 1; ( Me, put each result of load measurement in the
42 1
correspondence to an interval estimate of ordinate of the
corresponding typical load curve. After that, integral
load curve can be formed on the basis of the rules of
interval algebra [7]. However, in many cases we may
t = 1, ... ,T.
only use expert information (el, Figure 1) to estimate
If vt, is more then some threshold parameter a,we can
"weight" of each typical load. Since it is difficult to
consider I;, as the random excessive value and expel it obtain numerical values of typical loads due to expert
from the following analysis (Figure 2). An another interview, one can use linguistic estimates. Membership
heuristic procedure is associated with selecting an functions of these estimates can be formed on the basis
interquartile range [ 5 ] . In this case we can take the of special algorithm [SI, which allows one to take into
weight of interquartile as a final interval estimate of the account individual understanding the corresponding
load curve ordinate [l,*,i:],
that permits one to reduce linguistic notions by each expert.
* -* * Suppose, an integral load is formed by M types
initial interval (ita,lta I,
1 = mini;, j:, = m a x Q of of consumers. "Weight" of each i (i = 1, ... ,M) typical
.I .I load can be estimated by expert, using one of the
ordinate alteration (Figure 2). linguistic characteristics x,,,
v = I , ... ,V and its

I'

.. accordance with ( I )
vg<M. ... [A,(x,),~ A I ( X I ) I , j = 1, .,. ,J, i = 1, ... ,M.
- r . It Solution of the problem can be obtained in the process of
\-g> M. __ __. the following analysis
I, M
* I' w, = {Aitxj) E XI A ~ A , ( X =, )1 A min 0 PAltXj) =

415
 When experts are hampered in estimating overcoming the uncertainty and is associated with taking
directly the "weights" of different typical loads, a into account assumed coefficients of load variations
procedure of constructing load curves, associated with (y), year natural increase (or decrease) of load (kv ),
processing results of paired qualitative comparisons of errors of measurement (F), and can be realized as
the corresponding "weights" of typical loads, can be fol lows :
proposed. In accordance with this procedure, the expert
has to indicate which among two typical loads is more
significant and indicate his perception of the intensity of
distinction using a scale, which includes several ranks.
Such comparisons allow one to form the associated
matrix A [9]. The principal eigenvector of A is computed where @(a)is Laplace function.
by solving the eigenvalue problem Figure 2 illustrates the following algorithm of
A w = h,,,, w constructing membership functions :
where hlnaxis the principal eigenvalue of A.
h,,,, can be calculated taking into account the following Step 1. We form a sequence
conditions det(A - h I) = 0
where I is identity matrix. E = {e,,, e,+l I e, = ~n,ez+l=~
z ,=l ,1, ... ,2N-1,
The vector obtained by normalizing the elements of w, n = 1, ... ,N). ( 3)
imposing the constraint Zwl = 1 is the priority vector,
which gives the "weight" of each typical load.
Step 2. We regulate the sequence E in
accordance with non-decrease of its elements and obtain
CONSTRUCTING FUZZY LOAD ESTIMATES the non-decreasing sequence

Several sources of initial information (for

example, interval load curves (I.c., Figure I),
measurements of different nature (1, W, Figure I), expert
estimates (e2, Figure I), etc.), each of which does not Step 3. We move off the available identical
allow one to obtain enough data for statistical analysis, elements from the sequence E' and obtain the increasing
can be used to construct estimate of node loads. In the sequence
general case, when several sources of initial data
available, first, we must obtain partial membership
functions, each of which corresponds to information
emanated from one of the sources, and then transfer
them to a generalized one. Step 4. We form the double inequalities from
When setting up membership functions of the next elements
uncertain parameters from the results of measurements,
the fuzziness distributions with corresponding partial
membership functions p(I), are put in accordance with
each result I,, n=l ,...,N of measurements. Naturally,
first, all measurements (In,) have to be recalculated Step 5 . We calculate the values
regarding the same period of time (t) using the node load
curves.
-* p = 1, ... ,P-

1,
n = 1, ... ,N. (7)
The acceptable form of the elementary membership
function p(1) (Figure 3) conforms to maximum entropy
principle and considerations associated with Step 6. We calculate the values
interpretation of the results of measurements (I,) on the
basis- of fuzziness distribution [lo]. Forming the intervals
[I,,,I,,]n = 1, ... , N is defined both by the physical
essence of the process and by the aspiration for

416
where a, is a coefficient of credence, reflecting, for
example, "age" of periodical measurement lnv

The values pp, p=1, ...,P obtained in the result of

fulfillment of this algorithm must be normalized in
accordance with the considerations relative to the
maximum values of the membership functions. When
forming membership functions from the results of
periodical measurements, the maximum values of
membership functions (reflecting the measure of
reliability of information) must be determined by
considerations of formal character (for example, taking
into consideration the theoretical number of
measurements required to receive a mathematical i 1
expectation of the parameter with the acceptable
confidence probability, when the membership function Fig. 3
of this parameter can take a value equal to unity, and the
number of measurements actually made [ 1 11. Finally, formed membership function can be
given as a trapezoidal one (Figure 3), that makes
An addition, the actual number of possible to simplify following analysis (from the
measurements can be taken into account to reduce computational point of view) without significant change
dimension of support (J,r)
of membership function.
of accuracy.

FUZZY-NEURAL NETWORK MODEL FOR LOAD

FORECASTING AND LOAD COORDINATION
minlnt(1- k,6)
Load estimates formed on the basis of
I+- aggregating information characterize node load in
fi general. At the same time, remote load measurements on
substations (head branches of electrical networks) reflect
a real time load. Taking this into account, modelling
quasi real time modes of operation of electrical networks
(9)
can be realized in the process of coordination of head
branch load with node loads. However, in some cases,
when controlling and planning distribution system, the
problem of load forecasting arises.
Four types of initial data can be used in the
The formation of partial membership functions
procedure of load forecasting: type of the day, historical
from the results of individual or group expert estimation
daily load curves, daily temperature alteration and
(e2, Figure I ) is possible on the basis of the same
integrate characteristic which reflects influence of
algorithm (3) - (8). In this case it is expedient to use an additional factors.
expert estimation when specialists do not indicate point
Taking into consideration that forecast of
values, but give more natural and more informative temperature alteration is an uncertain parameter,
interval or linguistic estimates. corresponding linguistic estimates are used here. Since to
estimate directly influence (and degree of influence) of
When there are K partial membership functions, additional factors is rather complicate, a knowledge
forming the generalized membership function is
based system are employed here. For example,
associated with union of the partial ones, using a certain additional factors can be slelected to accurate the load
- N -
combinative rule.
( 1I, 1 ,..., I ,1) = 7,O
for example 1101:
T20 0Tn.
...
- - comb
Since the partial
forecasting, taking into account their influence on the
level of illuminating load. I n this case the corresponding
membership functions are presented in the form of fuzzy rules are based on comparison of certain
piecewise-continuous membership functions this rule meteorological factors of present day and day of
can be realized on the basis of the decomposition of forecast, for example, "if there are light clouds now, and
fuzzy sets according to a- level subsets, and using (for heavy clouds are expected (p,), and if there is no rain
their coordination) the corresponding coefficients of now, and light rain is expected (k2), and if there is no fog
credence. now, and no fog is expected (cl;), then change in load

417
will be positive small”. Outlets of knowledge base are
linguistic estimates and can be determined as it is shown
in [12].
An idea to use combined fuzzy-neural network
approach for load forecasting is based on the
methodology of load modelling and nature of the most
factors that influence on level of electrical loads.
Drawbacks of the widespread unsupervised/supervised
learning concept (for example, [ 13]), when input patterns
membership functions of node loads is carried out with
the goal to satisfy such a condition that the sum of
estimates (membership functions) of node loads has to
be equal to the estimate obtained on the basis of handling
the results of remote measurements of a head branch
load of the corresponding line. Displacement mentioned
above can be realized for the most characteristic a-levels
or for %,-level (were a,,, = minpllnax) of membership
I

are clustered according the Euclidean distances, are the functions of load estimates (Figure 4). However the
following. First, this algorithm needs several iterations, extent of load correction is different for separate nodes
that increase the computations. Second, in this case load and can be determined on the basis of set of logical
curve which represents center of the corresponding rules:
cluster are formed on the basis of medium values of the more magnitude of node load, the more level of
ordinates of the learning set and does not reflect a real correction;
load of distribution system. Since in reality ordinates of the more uncertainty of initial information, the more
load curves can be highly correlated, this leads to error level of correction,
in the load forecasting. the lower coordination of initial data, the more level of
Mentioned above allows one to propose the correction.
following estimate to discover similarities among initial The corresponding coefficients of load
patterns (for example, ordinates Ikt and IJ, of two load correction can be developed on the basis of rules
curves). mentioned above and taking into consideration feature of
algorithm of forming node load estimates (2) - (8). For
t example, the magnitude of load can be estimated as
pki= ( 1 + ( Ikt - Ij, )2)-’ ,k, j = 1,...,K, k z j, t = 1,...,T follows k, = (K+L+N+M)/4. The degree of uncertainty
of load estimates depends on volume and character of
where K is a number of elements in the training set, T is information used to form these estimates and can be
a number of ordinates of load curve. determined by the maximal value of their membership
Then integrate estimate (for example, for all set of load functions k2 = ( I-pmax). The degree of alteration of initial
curves) can be determined in accordance with the load estimates depends on difference between the results
formula of measurements (In) and/or between expert estimates.

2 Pt,
Generalized coefficient of correction can be determined
as a product of partial ones independently for the left and
Pkj = 7,
t=l
k,j=l, ...,K, k # j (10) right boundaries of membership function

This idea are used in the training algorithm to solve the Ki +3Li Li - Ki
kli =
problem of pattern clustering [ 141. 4 (’”’) (K +L )/ 2 ’
Two heuristics lie in the basis of the proposed
technique of load coordination. Let us assume, that N i +3Mi N .1- M i
electrical line has a sole load node. It is natural that in k.=
this case estimate of node load has to be equal to 4 (l”i) (Mi + N i ) / 2 .
estimate of head branch load. Taking this into account, at
the first step, displacement of boundaries of the

Fig. 4

418
 To realize proposed approach to load
coordination, let us define a trapezoidal fuzzy number
(Figure 4) by quadruplet R = (f, 6, a,p) [ 1 51. In this case
final result of the first stage of load coordination can be
represented as follows
were F, A , A, B are the corresponding parameters of
estimate of head branch load, k;,,kkl,kil,k;, are the
normalized coefficients of node load correction.
In accordance with the second heuristic, in the
general case, when several load nodes are available, we
can not consider such one-to one correspondence of
electrical loads as a satisfactory. Taking this into
account, the second stage of load coordination is
associated with forming some "residual" uncertainty of
the node load estimates. We can use here one more set of
logical rules: the more number ofnodes in electrical line,
the more level of '%esidual"uncertainty;
the more uncertainty of initial information, the more
level of '%esidual"uncertuinty.
So, the "residual" uncertainty of estimates may
be defined, for example, as cp = fl(&)'], where n is a
number of load nodes in the line; p is an index reflecting
the degree of uncertainty of load estimates. Finally, the
node load estimates can be given as follows
Proposed approach to load coordination permits
one to develop algorithm of load flow analysis which
satisfies the Kirkhoff s law (the application of traditional
operations on fuzzy numbers does not permit one to
observe this law [3]), for example
j= I
J= i
where m is a number of load nodes, that are supplied
from the branch i - l , i .
The experimental calculations show the validity
and adequacy of the proposed approach for modelling
the node loads as well as such functional indices as
419
power and energy losses, voltage deviations,
undersupply energy, etc.
CONCLUSIONS
Results from the present study indicate that proposed
approach allows one to use all available information with
remaining it adequacy, to !coordinate different from the
standpoint of uncertainty data, to reduce a level of
uncertainty, is effective and efficient for the estimation
of loads. This permits one to obtain less "cautious" and
more valid and factual effective solutions in operational
control and planning distribution systems.
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