Energy Policy 125 (2019) 33–44

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Energy Policy
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol

Effect of APCF policy on the haze pollution in China: A system dynamics T

approach
⁎
Shuwei Jiaa, , Xiaolu Liub, Guangle Yanc
a
College of Information and Management Science, Henan Agricultural University, 15 Longzi Lake Campus, Zhengzhou East New District, Zhengzhou, Henan 450046, PR
China
b
School of Economics, Fudan University, Shanghai 200433, PR China
c
Business School, University of Shanghai for Science and Technology, Shanghai 200093, PR China

A R T I C LE I N FO A B S T R A C T

Keywords: To study the effect of the air pollution charging fee (APCF) policy on the haze pollution in China, a dynamics
Vehicle emissions management model is constructed with the approach of system dynamics and implemented by using the Vensim
Haze pollution software. This model is used to simulate and assess the effect of APCF policy on the traffic and the emissions
System dynamics (particularly carbon monoxide (CO), hydrocarbons (HC), nitrogen oxides (NOx), and particulate matter (PM)) in
Rebound effects
Beijing during the years 2011–2025 in different scenarios. The validity and the robustness of the model are
Inflection-point effect
verified by a model test and validation, and a reasonable range of APCF is determined by using a sensitivity
analysis. The simulation results showed that the APCF policy effectively realized the “win-win” scenario of
emission reduction and congestion release. In particular, the simulation results also indicated some policy effects
such as rebound effect (from low-APCF policy), inflection-point effect (from high-APCF policy), and marginal
decreasing effect (between moderate and high-APCF policy). These results provide some valid policy re-
commendations for energy management and emission reduction.

1. Introduction
In the recent years, the rapid economic development in China, with
accelerating urbanization, has posed serious environmental and society
problems (Sun et al., 2016; Ma and He, 2016), particularly in the
Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and the degree of haze pollution has in-
creased considerably in other medium-sized cities such as Zhengzhou,
Jinan, and Shijiazhuang (Lu et al., 2018). In addition, frequent haze
pollution has seriously threatened people's daily life and health (Wang
et al., 2015; Xiao et al., 2018). Therefore, the current situation indicates
that it is very important to solve the problem of haze pollution and
alleviate the environmental crisis.
Several researchers have attempted to solve the abovementioned
problems, including traffic emission (Hwang and Ouyang, 2015;
Rodríguez et al., 2017; Jaikumar et al., 2017a, 2017b), PM2.5 reduction
(Han et al., 2017; Zhang et al., 2015; Pu, 2017; Shi et al., 2017), NOx
emission (Wang et al., 2016; Myung et al., 2017; Ma and Takeuchi,
2017; Sanchez et al., 2017; Ti et al., 2018; Fumey et al., 2018), and CO
and HC emission (Huang et al., 2016; Wu et al., 2017a, 2017b, 2017c;
Diaz-Mendez et al., 2018). Pan et al. (2017) investigated the effect of
traffic control (e.g. protest-made road blockages) on the autocorrelation
nature of local air pollutant concentrations. They also found that the
road blockages strengthen the long-term persistence of pollutants and
particulate matters are the most pronounced pollutants, particularly
PM2.5. Yang and Teng (2018) used the co-benefit method to study the
control strategy on carbon emission and air pollutants by linking the
emission coefficient at the technology level. Qin et al. (2017) studied
the potential of air emission reduction in China's coastal areas and
found that technological progress is the main driving factor to improve
energy efficiency. Dong et al. (2015) established the Computational
General Equilibrium (CGE) model to research the haze issue caused by
air pollution in the recent years, particular with respect to the reduction
of air pollutants (SO2, CO2, NOx, and PM). To improve local environ-
mental and cost effectiveness, they suggested paying more attention to
regional disparity when increasing the budgets for these pollutant
control measures. Wang et al. (2014) used the Grey forecasting model
to research the climate change in China and analyzed certain policy
implications. Furthermore, some scholars have conducted in-depth
studies on the congestion charging (Borger and Wuyts, 2011a; Wu et al.,
2017a, 2017b, 2017c) and congestion taxing policies (Borger, 2011b;
Farokhi and Johansson, 2015; Daganzo and Lehe, 2015). These studies
contribute to the realization of the air pollution reduction targets.

⁎
Corresponding author.
E-mail address: shuweijia999666@163.com (S. Jia).

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2018.10.012
Received 30 June 2018; Received in revised form 24 August 2018; Accepted 8 October 2018
0301-4215/ © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
S. Jia et al.
Fig. 1. Stock and flow diagram of the reduction management model of vehicle pollutant emissions. This model integrated was with five subsystems including social-
economy, resources, environment, transport, and policy to investigate the effect of APCF policy on the haze pollution in China. More importantly, eighteen key
variables were marked in different colors. (For interpretation of the references to color in this figure legend, the reader is referred to the web version of this article).
The above research results provide useful reference for the treat-
ment of haze pollution. However, the existing research on the charging
policy focuses on the qualitative level and lacks dynamic analysis.
Moreover, it mainly focuses on the feasibility and practical significance
of a foreign policy reference and the implementation of such a policy in
China's mega cities. The urban transportation system is a giant multi-
variable and nonlinear complex system. Therefore, it is necessary to
carry out a quantitative simulation analysis and introduce the system
dynamics approach because it emphasizes system behavior, structure,
and causal feedback relationships. It can also analyze the relationships
between the external dynamic environment and the internal structure
of complex systems by the use of computer simulations. Inspired by this
idea, this paper introduces the air pollution charging fee (APCF) policy
and propose a reduction management model for vehicle pollutant
emissions on the basis of integrated system dynamics and the Grey
model theory (SD–GM approach), which can realize a long-term and
dynamic simulation analysis. The policy effect is evaluated by a dy-
namic analysis of the effect of emission reduction. More important, the
simulation results also revealed some policy effects, including the
emission-reducing effect, traffic-diversion effect, rebound effect, in-
flection-point effect, and agglomeration effects.
According to the above analysis, air pollution caused by traffic jams
has become a difficult and urgent problem that needs to be resolved by
urban environmental managers. Traffic jams symbolize contradictions
between traffic demand and supply. Many people think that traffic jams
can be alleviated by the development of more roads. However, ac-
cording to several studies, new roads can only improve the imbalances
between traffic demand and supply temporarily but ultimately result in
new traffic jams. The implementation of pollution charge policy, which
specifically and reasonably charge the vehicles at a specific time and
particular area in accordance with the principles of social wealth
maximization, essentially reallocates network flows with economic
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Energy Policy 125 (2019) 33–44
levers, introduces some vehicles to non-congested roads, or prompts
some residents to give up traveling or change their means of travel,
thereby improving the transport efficiency of urban roads and reducing
vehicle emissions. For example, passengers can travel by bus or subway.
The implementation of this policy facilitates the adjustment of trans-
portation structures, achieves a road traffic time-space balance, im-
proves modernized services, and promotes sustainable development of
urban transportation. To this end, the rest of this paper is organized as
follows: In Section 2, a dynamics management model is established by
using the SD–GM approach, and the effectiveness of the SD–GM model
is verified. Section 3 presents an analysis of the simulation results from
the qualitative and quantitative perspectives. Section 4 discusses and
reveals the policy effects, including the emission-reducing effect,
traffic-diversion effect, and agglomeration effects. Finally, conclusion
and policy suggestions are given in Section 5.
2. Methodology
System dynamics (SD) is a systematic approach used for in-
vestigating economic, social, and environmental systems with large-
scale systems of high complexity (Forrester, 1961; Yuan and Wang,
2014). It has been applied to investigations in a broad range of fields,
including green supply chain management (Tian et al., 2014; Qudrat-
Ullah, 2014), green economy (Peng et al., 2015; Musango et al., 2014),
green building eco-environment (Teng et al., 2016), CO2 emissions
(Ansari and Seifi, 2013; Feng et al., 2013; Robalino-López et al., 2014;
Liu et al., 2015), and water security (Sahin et al., 2015; Zhang et al.,
2015). In addition, Dace et al. (2015) built a system dynamics model to
assess the effects of various measures on greenhouse gas emission
changes. Jiao et al. (2014) established a dynamic model to simulate the
effect of China's strategic petroleum reserve on stabilizing the domestic
oil price. These studies provide a useful reference for subsequent
S. Jia et al.
research.
2.1. Model development
On the basis of previous research and the existing data (Zhu, 2014;
Yang et al., 2014; Wu et al., 2016, 2017a, 2017b, 2017c), we estab-
lished a reduction management model for vehicle pollutant emissions
by using the Vensim software; this model includes the “causal loop
diagrams” and “stock-flow diagram” (as shown in Fig. 1). The de-
scriptions of the main variables are given in Appendix B. Furthermore,
the model consists of eight causal loops; their specific descriptions are
shown in Fig. 2.
2.1.1. Stock-flow model and causal loop analysis
From the perspective of emission reduction, we focused mainly on
CO, HC, NOx, PMx, and the degree of air pollution. Considering the
alleviation of traffic congestion, we focus on the number of passenger
car trips and the number of truck trips (see Fig. 1).
Fig. 1 mainly included three types of variables, i.e., level, rate and
auxiliary variable, and some key variables were marked in different
colors. This model was designed as a compound of five subsystems,
namely, resources, environment, social-economy, transport, and policy.
In social-economy subsystem, gross domestic product (GDP) and
population scale are all important factors that affect traffic pollution.
The total population in this study mainly considering
permanent resident population, because it directly and indirectly
through its impact on the growth of GDP. In policy subsystem, the APCF
policy is introduced to increase the cost of vehicle trips, and achieved
the purpose of congestion release. At the same time, it is helpful to
realize the goal of emission reduction, as well. In particular, the APCF is
counted in days, and the unit is yuan/day*vehicle. In resource and
environment subsystems, the vehicle pollutants emission is mainly in-
cluded CO, HC, PMx, and NOx in Beijing. Hence, this study uses these
pollutants to describe the degree of air pollution. Especially, using its’
dynamic changes to determine the effect of emission reduction. In
transport subsystem, the number of vehicle trips in this study was
35
Energy Policy 125 (2019) 33–44
Fig. 2. Causal loop diagram for the proposed model.
In this causal loop diagram, the plus sign “+” re-
presents that the variables at the opposite ends of the
arrow tend to reinforce in the same direction, while
the “-” symbol indicates an inverse relationship. Eight
causal loop diagrams are presented in the following
section. Especially, the positive feedback loops would
enhance itself via its positive chain. On the contrary,
the negative feedback loops would be relieved.
divided into two sectors, including passenger cars and trucks. Through
their dynamic trends to depict the effect of alleviating traffic conges-
tion.
Fig. 2 shows eight negative feedback loops; take Loop 1 as an ex-
ample.
+ +
Loop 1. Degree of air pollution ⟶ Air pollution control ⟶ Cost of
− +
motor vehicle trips ⟶ Attraction degree of vehicle trips ⟶ Attraction
+ +
degree of the growth of vehicles ⟶ Passenger car ⟶ Amount of
+ +
passenger car trips ⟶ PMx generation from passenger cars ⟶ PMx
+
⟶ Degree of air pollution.
Loop 1 is a negative feedback loop, implying that an increase in the
degree of air pollution would eventually affect itself in a negative
manner. It uses the APCF policy to reduce air pollution. In this loop, an
increase in the degree of air pollution will increase the air pollution
control, leading to higher costs for the motor vehicle trips, but the at-
traction degree of vehicle trips and the attraction degree of growth of
vehicles decreases. Ultimately, this reduces the total number of pas-
senger cars and the number of passenger car trips. With a fewer number
of passenger car trips, the PMx generation will be reduced from pas-
senger cars. This reduction in PMx generation from passenger cars leads
to smaller PMx, finally leading to a smaller degree of air pollution. It is
obvious that the variable degree of air pollution affects itself through
the chain effects involved in this feedback loop.
But the APCF policy increased the costs of motor vehicle trips by
reducing the number of passenger car trips. Therefore, under the APCF
policy, Loop 1 not only reduces the emission of vehicle pollutants and
decreases the degree of air pollution, but also alleviates the traffic
congestion.
In the same manner, the proposed model can analyze the other
loops.
2.1.2. Model assumption
From the perspective of emission reduction and relieving the degree
of traffic congestion, we made the following assumptions. Firstly, from
S. Jia et al. Energy Policy 125 (2019) 33–44

the aspect of a sensitivity analysis, we focused on the variables of the
degree of air pollution, the number of passenger car trips, and the total
emission of NOx, to evaluate the effects of the APCF policy. Secondly,
from the perspective of the emission-reducing effect, we focused on the
CO, HC, NOx, and PMx to describe the degree of air pollution, in which
NOx mainly refers to NO2 and NO, and PMx mainly includes PM2.5 and
PM10. Thirdly, from the viewpoint of the traffic-diversion effect, we
mainly considered the two variables of the number of passenger car
trips and truck trips, to reveal the degree of traffic congestion.
Setting: Initial time = 2011, final time = 2025, time step = 0.5,
unit of time: Year.
2.2. Model quantification
For the quantification model, we used the following three methods.
Method 1. Direct data obtained from the official website (such as
“Beijing Statistical Yearbook 2010–2017”, “China Statistical Yearbook
2010–2017”, “China Vehicle Emission control Annual Report”, et al.)
and the existing literature.
Method 2. Indirect data obtained through calculations
When the relationship between variables was not very obvious, the
operator theory, GM cycle prediction theory, and the system dynamics
theory were used to process the data. We established the Graphical and
Logic functions to describe the approximate nonlinear relationship be-
tween the variables. By taking the Logic function of the degree of air
pollution as an example, the detailed calculations are given below.
This study estimated the degree of air pollution mainly based on the
amount of PMx generation from passenger cars and trucks, amount of
NOx generation from passenger cars and trucks, amount of CO gen-
eration from passenger cars and trucks, amount of HC generation from
passenger cars and trucks, and was in accordance with the historical
data in “Beijing Statistical Yearbook 2010–2017”, “China Vehicle Emission
control Annual Report 2015” and “China Vehicle Environmental
Management Annual Report 2016–2017”, it can obtain the detailed re-
sults (see Table 1).
According to the actual situation of air pollution caused by vehicle
emission pollutants in Beijing, serious pollution was observed from
2013 to 2015, moderate pollution was seen between 2009 and 2012,
and mild pollution occurred before 2008. Hence, the degree of air
pollution caused by the amount of PMx generation was as follows:
Firstly, the degree of air pollution exhibited a value range that was
defined as (0, 1), wherein a value of 0.8 and above indicates serious
pollution, a value lower than 0.8 but higher than 0.5 represents mod-
erate pollution, and a value lower than 0.5 indicates mild pollution.
Secondly, from 2013 to 2015, Beijing exhibited a very serious de-
gree of air pollution, wherein the estimated value of PMx pollution was
characterized between 0.8 and 1 at a corresponding amount of PMx
generation of 8977.4–10043.6 t (see Table 1). From 2009–2012, the
degree of air pollution was moderate, such that the estimated value of
pollution PMx was within the interval of (0.5, 0.8) at a corresponding
amount of PMx generation of 6386.6–8411.8 t. From 2006–2008, the
pollution degree was mild, such that the estimated value of PMx pol-
lution was lower than 0.5.
According to the information above, the Logical function of pollu-
tion degree of PMx can be established:
Pollution degree of PMx = IF THEN ELSE(Amount of PMx genera-
tion > = 10043.6, 0.9, IF THEN ELSE(Amount of PMx generation > =
9697.4, 0.85, IF THEN ELSE(Amount of PMx generation > = 8977.4,
0.8, IF THEN ELSE(Amount of PMx generation > = 8411.8, 0.7, IF
THEN ELSE(Amount of PMx generation > = 7810.6, 0.65, IF THEN
ELSE(Amount of PMx generation > = 7246.8, 0.6, IF THEN ELSE
(Amount of PMx generation > = 6386.6, 0.5, IF THEN ELSE(Amount of
PMx generation > = 5911.8, 0.4, IF THEN ELSE(Amount of PMx gen-
eration > = 5497.6, 0.3, IF THEN ELSE(Amount of PMx genera-
tion > = 5245.4, 0.2, 0.1)))))))))).
Similarly, it can establish the Logical function of pollution degree of
NOx, HC and CO. The calculation of relevant data values are presented
in Appendix A.
Pollution degree of NOx = IF THEN ELSE(Amount of NOx genera-
tion > = 116822.3, 0.9, IF THEN ELSE(Amount of NOx generation >
= 113641.2, 0.85, IF THEN ELSE(Amount of NOx generation > =
106585.6, 0.8, IF THEN ELSE(Amount of NOx generation > =
100369.6, 0.7, IF THEN ELSE(Amount of NOx generation > = 93859.5,
0.65, IF THEN ELSE(Amount of NOx generation > = 87802.7, 0.6, IF
THEN ELSE(Amount of NOx generation > = 75803.9, 0.5, IF THEN
ELSE(Amount of NOx generation > = 68647.3, 0.4, IF THEN ELSE
(Amount of NOx generation > = 62830.8, 0.3, IF THEN ELSE(Amount
of NOx generation > = 58759.1, 0.2, 0.1)))))))))).
Pollution degree of HC = IF THEN ELSE(Amount of HC genera-
tion > = 95868.1, 0.9, IF THEN ELSE(Amount of HC generation > =
94539.4, 0.85, IF THEN ELSE(Amount of HC generation > = 90748.6,
0.8, IF THEN ELSE(Amount of HC generation > = 86197.4, 0.7, IF
THEN ELSE(Amount of HC generation > = 81586.7, 0.65, IF THEN
ELSE (Amount of HC generation > = 77375.7, 0.6, IF THEN ELSE
(Amount of HC generation > = 64507.9, 0.5, IF THEN ELSE(Amount
of HC generation > = 56158.5, 0.4, IF THEN ELSE(Amount of HC
generation > = 49871.6, 0.3, IF THEN ELSE(Amount of HC genera-
tion > = 44805.1, 0.2, 0.1)))))))))).
Pollution degree of CO = IF THEN ELSE(Amount of CO genera-
tion > = 845608.9, 0.9, IF THEN ELSE(Amount of CO generation > =
835824.1, 0.85, IF THEN ELSE(Amount of CO generation > =
805405.3, 0.8, IF THEN ELSE(Amount of CO generation > =
766091.3, 0.7, IF THEN ELSE(Amount of CO generation > = 726527,
0.65, IF THEN ELSE(Amount of CO generation > = 690530.1, 0.6, IF
THEN ELSE(Amount of CO generation > = 572468.2, 0.5, IF THEN
ELSE(Amount of CO generation > = 495083.4, 0.4, IF THEN ELSE
(Amount of CO generation > = 437344.4, 0.3, IF THEN ELSE(Amount
of CO generation > = 390050.8, 0.2, 0.1)))))))))).
Therefore,

Table 1
The calculation of pollution degree of PMx in Beijing.
Time Amount of passenger cars Amount of PMx generation from Amount of trucks Amount of PMx generation Amount of PMx Degree of air
passenger cars from trucks generation pollution

2015 4.981e + 006 vehicle 3984.8 t 3.06e + 005 vehicle 6058.8 t 10043.6 t Serious pollution
2014 4.969e + 006 vehicle 3975.2 t 2.89e + 005 vehicle 5722.2 t 9697.4 t Serious pollution
2013 4.861e + 006 vehicle 3888.8 t 2.57e + 005 vehicle 5088.6 t 8977.4 t Serious pollution
2012 4.649e + 006 vehicle 3719.2 t 2.37e + 005 vehicle 4692.6 t 8411.8 t Moderate pollution
2011 4.442e + 006 vehicle 3553.6 t 2.15e + 005 vehicle 4257.0 t 7810.6 t Moderate pollution
2010 4.257e + 006 vehicle 3405.6 t 1.94e + 005 vehicle 3841.2 t 7246.8 t Moderate pollution
2009 3.454e + 006 vehicle 2763.2 t 1.83e + 005 vehicle 3623.4 t 6386.6 t Moderate pollution
2008 2.910e + 006 vehicle 2328.0 t 1.81e + 005 vehicle 3583.8 t 5911.8 t Mild pollution
2007 2.516e + 006 vehicle 2012.8 t 1.76e + 005 vehicle 3484.8 t 5497.6 t Mild pollution
2006 2.176e + 006 vehicle 1740.8 t 1.77e + 005 vehicle 3504.6 t 5245.4 t Mild pollution

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S. Jia et al. Energy Policy 125 (2019) 33–44

Degree of air pollution = λ1*pollution degree of PMx Table 2

+ λ2*pollution degree of NOx + λ3*pollution degree of HC Accuracy test grade (Liu, 2017).
+λ 4 *pollution degree of CO Accuracy grade Grade 1 Grade 2 Grade 3 Grade 4

wherein, λ1 refers to the weight ratio of PMx, λ2 refers to the weight Relative error α 0.01 0.05 0.10 0.20
ratio of NOx, λ3 refers to the weight ratio of HC, and λ 4 refers to weight
4
ratio of CO, and ∑i = 1 λi = 1. 6
− 1
Method 3. Questionnaire survey and interviews Δ =
6
∑ Δk ≈ 1.95% = 0.0195 < 0.05 = α
k=1
For some subjective data that could not be directly quantified, a
questionnaire survey and interviews with experts were conducted. and
According to some experts from Beijing Jiaotong University, Tsinghua Δ6 = 3.9674% = 0.039674 < 0.05.
University, and Beijing Technology and Business University, we ob-
Therefore, according to Definition 1 and Table 2, this model is de-
tained the following variables: Scrap rate from passenger cars and
fined as the residual error conformance model, and the accuracy be-
trucks, dissipation and control rate of NOx from passenger cars and
longs to grade 2. In the same way, we can obtain
trucks, ratio of passenger car trips and truck trips, per vehicle annual
NOx emissions from passenger cars and trucks. Details are given in
(0) ⎡ 2.0186e + 007 ⎤
Appendix B. ⎡ xPopulation (1) ⎤ ⎢ 2.0693e + 007 ⎥
The descriptions of the other equations are presented in Appendix B. ⎢ (0) ⎥ ⎢ 2.1148e + 007 ⎥
xPopulation (2) ⎥ ⎢
(0)
X Population =⎢
⎢ ⎥=⎢
2.1516e + 007 ⎥,
⋮ ⎥
2.3. Model test and validation ⎢ ⎥ ⎢ 2.1705e + 007 ⎥
(0)
⎢ xPopulation (7) ⎥ ⎢ 2.1729e + 007 ⎥
⎣ ⎦
⎣ 2.1707e + 007 ⎦
To ensure that the SD model conformed to the reality, a model test
and validation were respectively carried out to investigate the relia- (0) 2.01860e + 007 ⎤
bility of the model. ⎡ x∧Population (1) ⎤ ⎡
⎢ ⎥ ⎢ 2.02511e + 007 ⎥
∧ (0) ⎢ ∧ (0) ⎥ ⎢ 2.03411e + 007 ⎥
2.3.1. Model test XPopulation = ⎢ xPopulation (2) ⎥ = ⎢ 2.04377e + 007 ⎥,
⎢ ⋮ ⎥ ⎢ 2.05347e + 007 ⎥
The model test was to determine whether the structural behavior of ⎢ ∧ (0) ⎥ ⎢ ⎥
the model conformed to the reality. It mainly included the extreme ⎢ xPopulation (7) ⎥ ⎢ 2.06322e + 007 ⎥
⎣ ⎦ ⎣ 2.07281e + 007 ⎦
conditions test, reality test, integral error test, and sensitivity test. In
this paper, we will discuss the reality test and the sensitivity test as the So
examples. See Appendix C for the detailed analysis.
∧ (0)
⎡ x (0) − xPopulation (1) ⎤
Population (1)
2.3.2. Model validation ⎡ εPopulation (1) ⎤ ⎢ ⎥
⎢ εPopulation (2) ⎥ ⎢ x (0) ∧ (0) ⎥
For the model testing, we selected representative variables, such as εPopulation =⎢ ⎥ = ⎢ Population (2) − xPopulation (2) ⎥
the GDP and the population, for a historical examination to study the ⎢ ⋮ ⎥ ⎢ ⋮ ⎥
⎢ εPopulation (7) ⎥ ⎢ ∧ (0)
⎥
effectiveness of the model. In this study, we performed the qualified ⎣ ⎦ ⎢ x (0) (7) − xPopulation (7) ⎥
verification of the residual error. ⎣ Population ⎦
⎡ 0 ⎤
Definition 1. Qualified verification of residual error (Liu, 2017)
⎢ 4.4190e + 005 ⎥
Assume that the original sequence is listed: ⎢ 8.0690 e + 005 ⎥
= ⎢ 1.0783e + 006 ⎥,
X (0) = (x (0) (1), x (0) (2), ... ,x (0) (n)). ⎢ 1.1703e + 006 ⎥
⎢ ⎥
⎢ 1.0968e + 006 ⎥
Then, its simulation sequence and residual error sequence are de-
⎣ 9.7890e + 005 ⎦
fined, respectively, as follows:
∧ (0) ∧ (0) ∧ (0) ∧ (0) ⎡ 0 ⎤
εPopulation (1)
X = (x (1), x (2), ... ,x (n)) (0)
xPopulation (1)
⎢ 2.1355% ⎥
⎢ 3.8155% ⎥
7
and ΔPopulation = ⋮ = ⎢ 5.0116% ⎥ = {ΔkPopulation }1 ,
⎢ 5.3918% ⎥
⎡ x (0) (1)
∧ (0) εPopulation (7) ⎢ ⎥
−x (1) ⎤ ⎢ 5.0476% ⎥
⎡ ε (1) ⎤ ⎢ ⎥ (0)
xPopulation (7)
⎢ ε (2) ⎥ ⎢ x (0) (2) ∧ (0) ⎣ 4.5096% ⎦
ε (0) =⎢ − x (2) ⎥.
⎥=⎢ ⎥
⎢ ⋮ ⎥ ⎢
−
⋮ ⎥ ΔPopulation ≈ 3.7017% = 0.037017 < 0.05 = α,
⎣ ε (n) ⎥
⎢ ⎦ ⎢ x (0) (n) ∧ (0)
− x (n) ⎦
⎥
⎣
Δ7Population = 0.045096 < 0.05.
Its relative error sequence is as follows:
Hence, according to Definition 1 and Table 2, these results have a
ε (1) ε (2) ε (n) ⎫
Δ = ⎧ (0) , (0) , ... , (0) = {Δk }1n . high credibility.
⎨
⎩ x (1) x (2) x (n) ⎬
⎭
3. Results
ε (k )
When k ≤ n , Δk = is defined as the simulative relative error of
x (0) (k )
−
1 n 3.1. Sensitivity analysis
the k point, and Δ = n
∑k = 1 Δk is its average value. When ∃ α > 0 , if
−
Δ < α and Δn < α are available, this model is defined as the residual In Fig. 3(a), when APCF = 5, curves 1 and 3 show an increasing
error conformance model. See Table 2 for the accuracy test grade. trend, which indicates that the effect of the low-APCF policy is not
From Table 3, we can find that obvious. Initially, curve 2 declined rapidly, while after a period of time,

37
S. Jia et al. Energy Policy 125 (2019) 33–44

Table 3
Results of model test.
Year Historical value (Yuan) x (0) (k ) ∧ (0) ∧ (0) ε (k )
Simulated value (Yuan) x (k ) Error value (Yuan) ε (k ) = x (0) (k ) − x (k ) Error (%) Δk =
x (0) (k )

2011 1.62519e + 012 1.62519e + 012 – –

2012 1.83501e + 012 1.86967e + 012 −3.446e + 010 1.8888
2013 2.03301e + 012 2.06033e + 012 −2.732e + 010 1.3438
2014 2.19441e + 012 2.24648e + 012 −5.207e + 010 2.3728
2015 2.36857e + 012 2.41936e + 012 −5.079e + 010 2.1443
2016 2.56691e + 012 2.46507e + 012 1.0184e + 011 3.9674

it began to slowly rise again. These results indicated that the APCF
policy can effectively reduce the degree of air pollution in short-term.
However, in the long run, the effect of the policy decreases. From
Fig. 3(b), one can find that curves 1 and 2 do not show the increasing
trend anymore, but curve 3 does, demonstrating that the effect of the
low-APCF policy on NOx is very limited. Fig. 3(c) shows that upon an
increase in APCF, curve 3 begins to decline slowly, and the effect of the
emission reduction on NOx becomes increasingly obvious. Fig. 3(a)-(d)
show that all of the curves reduced to a greater degree, indicating that
within a certain range (APCF ∈ [5, 50]), upon an increase in the APCF,

Fig. 3. Change in the number of major variables for different APCFs. (a) APCF = 5; (b) APCF = 10; (c) APCF = 30; (d) APCF = 50; (e) APCF = 100; (f)
APCF = 1000. From the social and environmental perspective, this study utilizes NOx, degree of air pollution, and amount of passenger car trips to determine a
relatively satisfying solution.

38
S. Jia et al.
Table 4
Effects of the main variables for different APCFs (in 2025).
APCF Amount of passenger car trips Variation Degree of air pollution
5 2.96693e + 006 vehicle – 0.5375
10 2.11016e + 006 vehicle − 28.88% 0.375
30 1.66670e + 006 vehicle − 21.02% 0.3
50 1.57779e + 006 vehicle − 5.33% 0.225
100 1.49764e + 006 vehicle − 5.08% 0.225
1000 1.26867e + 006 vehicle − 15.29% 0.175
the effects of NOx and the degree of air pollution continuously
strengthen. The increase in the number of passenger cars is also effec-
tively controlled.
Fig. 3(d)-(f) show that the decrease in curves 1–3 gradually de-
creases; in other words, in Fig. 3(d)-(f) and Table 4, the curve barely
changes. When APCF ∈ [100, 1000], curves 1, 2, and 3 reduced by ap-
proximately 15.29%, 22.22%, and 7.80%, respectively. These results
reveal that when the APCF surpasses 100, the effect of the policy is not
obvious.
3.2. Effects of emission reduction
Take APCF = 50 for example to observe the effect of the policy on
major variables, which includes the CO, HC, NOx, PMx, and CO gen-
eration from passenger cars, CO generation from trucks, HC generation
from passenger cars, HC generation from trucks, NOx generation from
passenger cars, NOx generation from trucks, PMx generation from pas-
senger cars, and PMx generation from trucks.
The detailed analysis results are as follows:
In Fig. 4(a)–(f), the CO, HC, and CO generation from passenger cars,
CO generation from trucks, HC generation from passenger cars, and HC
generation from trucks all have different degrees of decline. However,
the CO and HC generation from passenger cars showed a faster decli-
nation (see Fig. 4(b) and (e)), but the changes in CO and HC generation
from trucks are relatively slow (see Fig. 4(c) and (f)). Fig. 4(g)–Fig. 4(i)
show that the emission reduction of NOx is limited, particularly in the
case of trucks (see Fig. 4(i)). Figs. (j)–(l) show that PMx declines rapidly,
particularly in the case of trucks (see Fig. 4(l)).
In addition, Table 5 shows that the emission of CO (726527 t →
416833.7 t), HC (81586.7 t → 42688.7 t), NOx (93859.5 t → 85137 t),
and PMx (7810.6 t → 2917.111 t) will decrease by approximately
42.63%, 47.68%, 9.29%, and 62.65%, respectively, by 2025.
Therefore, an appropriate APCF policy can reduce the total amount
of CO, HC, NOx, and PMx emitted in the air and realize the target of
emission reduction.
3.3. Effect analysis of alleviating traffic congestion
From the viewpoint of alleviating traffic congestion, we analyzed
the changes in the different values of APCF on the number of vehicle
trips in three scenarios: low, moderate, and high. Consider the number
of passenger car trips and the number of truck trips, and let (low,
moderate, high) be (10, 50, 100).
As shown in Fig. 5(a) and Table 6, the change in the number of
passenger car trips is not obvious (under the low-APCF policy), and
under the moderate-APCF policy, it is expected to decrease by ap-
proximately 25.23% in 2025. In particular, under the high-APCF policy,
the change is the most obvious. However, as compared to moderate
APCF, it is expected to reduce by only 5.08%. Therefore, in the case of
the APCF, “bigger does not always mean better.” Fig. 5(b) shows that
the changes in the number of truck trips are similar to those shown in
Fig. 5(a). Table 6 also showed that the changes in the number of vehicle
trips have decreased by approximately 25.19% under the moderate-
APCF policy. Hence, to a certain extent, the APCF policy can effectively
reduce the total number of vehicle trips and alleviate traffic congestion.
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Energy Policy 125 (2019) 33–44
Variation NOx Variation
– 136617 t –
− 30.23% 103750 t − 24.06%
− 20.00% 88783.1 t − 14.43%
− 25.00% 85137 t − 4.11%
– 81714.8 t − 4.02%
− 22.22% 75341 t − 7.80%
3.4. Effect analysis of economic, environment and health
To explore the impact of traffic pollution on health, environment,
economic and social conditions, the following variables such as re-
duction of GDP (from an economic perspective), reduction of popula-
tion (from social perspective), health impact index (from health factor),
and environmental impact index (from environmental perspective)
were mainly considered. Their dynamic simulation results are pre-
sented in Fig. 6.
As shown in Fig. 6(a), both curves 1 and 2 are constantly rising.
These results showed that the loss of GDP, and the death of population
are still increasing. In other words, the low-APCF policy cannot effec-
tively curb the negative effects of the growth of traffic pollution
(especial for GDP and population). Hence, the environment will con-
tinue to deteriorate and endanger physical and mental health (see
Fig. 6(b)).
To this end, it is necessary to find a reasonable range of values.
Under the moderate-APCF policy (such as APCF = 50), the reduction of
population was effectively controlled because curve 2 began to decline
continuously (see curve 2 in Fig. 6(c)). The reduction of GDP was also
restrained to some extent, because curve 1 was no longer rapidly rising
(see curve 1 in Fig. 6(c)). In addition, Fig. 6(d) showed that curves 1
and 2 were declining all the time. These results indicated that the
health and environmental indicators have been effectively improved.
Therefore, in a sense, the moderate-APCF policy not only reduced
the loss of GDP and improved environmental quality, but also promoted
the health index.
4. Discussions
In this study, we used the SD–GM approach to establish a reduction
management model for vehicle pollutant emissions, and conducted a
dynamic simulation analysis from the perspective of “emission reduc-
tion” and “alleviating traffic congestion.” Through the in-depth analysis
of the main variables, we found that the APCF policy has both ad-
vantages and disadvantages. That is, the APCF policy has the shunting
effects of traffic and the emission-reducing effect. However, at the same
time, it can lead to the agglomeration effect of public transport groups.
This can be summarized as follows:
4.1. Emission-reducing effect
There are many factors influencing the “haze” pollution in Chinese
cities. On the basis of existing literature, in this paper, we introduced
the APCF policy. Through a dynamic simulation of the main variables in
the model, this policy can effectively reduce the CO, HC, NOx, and PMx
concentrations in the air (Wu et al., 2017a, 2017b, 2017c; Diaz-Mendez
et al., 2018) and then reduce the degree of air pollution and achieve the
goal of reducing emissions (Jaikumar et al., 2017a, 2017b; Shi et al.,
2017; Ma and Takeuchi, 2017; Sanchez et al., 2017). Through a sen-
sitivity analysis, we found that when APCF was above 10 and below 50,
the emission reduction of NOx was obvious (see Fig. 3(b)-(d)). Once
more than 50, the effect is obvious (see Fig. 3(d)-(f)). Therefore, the
APCF does not always conform to “the bigger, the better.”
Taking APCF = 50 as an example, we found that the CO, HC, NOx,
S. Jia et al. Energy Policy 125 (2019) 33–44

Fig. 4. Trend of the major variables under the APCF policy. (a) CO; (b) CO generation from passenger cars; (c) CO generation from trucks; (d) HC; (e) HC generation
from passenger cars; (f) HC generation from trucks; (g) NOx; (h) NOx generation from passenger cars; (i) NOx generation from trucks; (j) PMx; (k) PMx generation from
passenger cars; (l) PMx generation from trucks.

Table 5
Effect of the major variables under the APCF policy.
Variable 2011 2013 …… 2021 2023 2025

CO (t) 726527 647571.7 …… 469265.6 441736 416833.7

CO generation from passenger cars (t) 624101 58134 …… 434256 408923 385899
CO generation from trucks (t) 102426 66257.7 …… 35009.6 32813 30934.7
HC (t) 81586.7 68954.4 …… 48090.7 45246.24 42688.7
HC generation from passenger cars (t) 67074.2 58775.8 …… 42204.9 39720.1 37475.4
HC generation from trucks (t) 14512.5 10178.6 …… 5885.8 5526.14 5213.3
NOx (t) 93859.5 102345.9 …… 94074.6 89598.4 85137
NOx generation from passenger cars (t) 55525 52642.9 …… 40569.9 38076.5 35813.9
NOx generation from trucks (t) 38334.5 49703 …… 53504.7 51521.9 49323.1
PMx (t) 7810.6 522909 …… 3270.22 3085.823 2917.111
PMx generation from passenger cars (t) 3553.6 1510.63 …… 638.32 600.373 566.621
PMx generation from trucks (t) 4257 3718.46 …… 2631.9 2485.45 2350.49

40
S. Jia et al. Energy Policy 125 (2019) 33–44

Fig. 5. Changes in the main variables under different scenarios: (a) amount of passenger car trips; (b) amount of truck trips. Especially, there exists some specific
changes such as rebound-points (see points M and N), inflection-points (see points P and Q), and an “inverted S-shaped” decline trend (see high APCF policy).

Table 6 and PMx decreased in different degrees, and the CO, HC, and PMx
Comparison of different scenarios (in 2025). concentrations reduced by approximately 42.63%, 47.68%, and
Variable Low-APCF Moderate- Variation High-APCF Variation
62.65% (see Table 5). However, for passenger cars, the changes in the
APCF CO and HC concentrations were very fast (see Fig. 4(b) and (c),
Fig. 4(c)–(f), and Table 5). In particular, the APCF policy led to a re-
Amount of 2110160 1577790 − 25.23% 1497640 − 5.08% latively small reduction of the NOx concentration and the NOx gen-
passenger
car trips
eration from trucks (see Fig. 4(g) and (i), and Table 5). The reason for
Amount of truck 96991 73405 − 24.32% 69898 − 4.78% this may be that people's lives can not do without trucks, particularly
trips for the transportation of daily necessities.
Amount of 2207151 1651195 − 25.19% 1567538 − 5.07% Moreover, different effects for trucks and passenger cars were ob-
vehicle trips
served in the simulation. Fig. 7(a) and (b) show that the passenger cars

Fig. 6. Comparison of different policies: (a) Effects of GDP and population (APCF = 5); (b) Effects of health and environment (APCF=5); (c) Effects of GDP and
population (APCF = 50); (d) Effects of health and environment (APCF = 50). In particular, these figures use dynamic simulation to analyze economic, environment
and health co-benefits of the APCF policy.

41
S. Jia et al. Energy Policy 125 (2019) 33–44

Fig. 7. Different effects for trucks and passenger cars. (a) CO; (b) HC; (c) NOx; (d) PMx.

Table 7 vehicles, thus resulting in a traffic-diversion effect (see Fig. 5 and

Effects on CO, HC, NOx, and PMx emissions of the APCF policy. Table 6). This can relieve traffic congestion to some extent.
Variable From passenger cars From trucks Rate
4.3. Rebound effect and inflection-point effect
CO 387586 t 30500.4 t 12.47
HC 37639.3 t 5140.07 t 7.19
Rebound effect can be obtained from the low-APCF policy. The ef-
NOx 36045.6 t 48787.7 t 0.73
PMx 568.879 t 2316.47 t 0.24 fects of low-APCF policy are limited, as they will rebound in the long-
term (see points M and N in Fig. 5). The two possible reasons for this
include: firstly, the number of vehicle trips will continue to grow with
emitted considerably more CO and HC than the trucks. Table 7 shows the rapid increase of the number of vehicles; and secondly, with the
that the CO generation from passenger cars was twelve times that from improvement of living standards, the affect of original pricing range
trucks, and the HC generation from passenger cars was seven times that may decline. Considering the “Single and double number limit policy”
from trucks. These results are consistent with those presented in in Beijing (in 2007), it did not relieve congestion, but increased the
Fig. 4(b) and (c), Fig. 4(e) and (f), and Table 5. However, the trucks congestion in the long-term, while the effects are obvious in the be-
emitted more NOx and PMx than the passenger cars (see Fig. 7(c) and ginning. This is because most of the families purchase a second car,
(d), and Table 7). These results are consistent with those presented in which increases the total number of motor vehicles, causing a shortage
Fig. 4(h)–(i), Fig. 4(k)–(l), and Table 5. of parking spaces.
Inflection-point effect can be obtained from the high-APCF policy.
4.2. Traffic-diversion effect Fig. 5 and Table 6 also indicated that the high-APCF policy could sig-
nificantly reduce the number of motor vehicle trips. However, from the
The implementation of the APCF policy increases the cost of the trend of change, there existed a rapid declination at the beginning,
motor vehicle trips to a certain extent, thereby reducing the number of while after about 2016, the declination rate was getting slower (see
motor vehicle trips and realizing the goal of “alleviate traffic conges- inflection points P and Q in Fig. 5), presenting an “inverted S-shaped”
tion.” declination trend. The reason for this might be that some travelers opt
Similarly, some scholars have adopted “congestion charging” to for public transportation, which decreases the supply level of public
control “traffic congestion.” The typical cities in which this strategy is traffic. This in turn leads to a very few vehicle travelers who no longer
used are Singapore (Olszewski and Xie, 2005), London (Schade and switch to buses and subways, weakening the effect of APCF policy to
Baum, 2007; Wen et al., 2014), and Stockholm (Eliasson and Mattsson, some extent. Namely, the effect was very obvious in short-term, but was
2006; Eliasson, 2014). These cities use economic means to achieve the undermined in the medium and run. The simulation results demon-
purpose of “alleviate traffic congestion,” which provides a useful re- strated that there needs to be a limit and could not blindly increase the
ference for future research. cost of motor vehicle travel.
Fig. 5 reveals that the effects of different policy scenarios on motor
vehicle trips. The simulation results show that the low-APCF and high- 4.4. Agglomeration effect
APCF policies are not economical because the increase in APCF had a
marginal decreasing effect on the number of passenger car trips. The The APCF policy can not only reduce the motor vehicle emissions
moderate-APCF policy can promote the transformation of some motor and haze pollution levels, but also reduce the number of motor vehicle

42
S. Jia et al.
trips and alleviate traffic congestion, so as to realize “reduction emis-
sion” and “congestion releasing,” a “win-win” scenario.
However, the single APCF policy can also trigger the “agglomera-
tion effect of public transport groups,” which will aggravate the burden
on public transportation and reduce its service level. The reason may be
that the APCF policy has instigated some motorists to change their ways
of traveling and switch to public transportation (such as buses and
subways). This is not conducive to social harmony and sustainable
development. Therefore, it is necessary to divert some public transport
groups to other modes of transportation.
5. Conclusions and policy implications
In this study, we used the SD method and developed an APCF policy
to construct a reduction management model for vehicle pollutant
emissions. Through a dynamic simulation analysis of the main variables
of the model, the following main conclusions and policy implications
were obtained.
5.1. Main conclusions
First, simulation results revealed the implementation of the APCF
policy can effectively realize the “win-win” of “reduction emission” and
“congestion releasing.”
Second, simulation results also demonstrated that the effect of the
low-APCF policy is not obvious. Moderate-APCF and high-APCF policies
can significantly reduce the emission of vehicle pollutants and relieve
traffic congestion. Taking APCF = 50 as an example, the main results
showed that the CO, NOx, HC, and PMx concentrations declined by
approximately 42.63%, 9.29%, 47.68%, and 62.65%, respectively.
Compared to the low-APCF policy, the number of passenger cars and
the number of trucks reduced by 25.23% and 24.32%, respectively.
Third, an appropriate APCF policy not only decreases the loss of
GDP and improves health index, but also promotes environmental
quality.
However, we found that a higher APCF is not necessarily better. The
increase in APCF had a diminishing marginal effect. In addition, the
simulation results revealed that passenger cars and trucks have dif-
ferent pollutant discharge conditions. The CO and HC generation of
passenger cars was considerably higher than that of trucks. At the same
time, the PMx and NOx generation of trucks was greater than that of
passenger cars.
5.2. Policy implications and recommendations
Although the single APCF policy achieves the goal of alleviating
traffic congestion and emission reduction, it involves other policy ef-
fects such as rebound effect, marginal decreasing effect, agglomeration
effect of public transport groups, and inflection-point effect. The major
policy implications and recommendations are listed below:
Firstly, the three scenarios revealed different policy implications.
Rebound effect illustrated that the effects of alleviating traffic conges-
tion and emission reduction are very limited in the low-APCF policy,
and marginal decreasing effect showed that the APCF policy is not al-
ways “bigger means better.” Inflection-point effect illuminated that
there is a classic inverted “S” type curve in the high-APCF policy. In
particular, the effect of the high-APCF policy is obvious in short-term
but it becomes weak in the long run. Therefore, given the rebound ef-
fect from the low-APCF policy, inflection-point effect from the high-
APCF policy, and marginal decreasing effect (between moderate and
high-APCF policy), we suggested adopting the “Moderate-APCF policy.”
Secondly, a single APCF policy could trigger the “crowding effect of
public transport groups” and reduce the supply level of public traffic.
Hence, it is necessary to introduce other policies such as bike-share
mechanism and subsidy, and expand the scope of subsidy by including
high-speed railways and buses. On one hand, we suggested the use of a
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Energy Policy 125 (2019) 33–44
portion of the APCF policy income for subsidies to improve public
transport infrastructure, and this can greatly improve the supply level
of public traffic and make up the deficiency of the single APCF policy.
On the other hand, we suggested that the other part of subsidies can be
used for bicycle-sharing to increase its operational efficiency and op-
timize its operation management mode. The reasons for this may in-
clude the following aspects: first of all, bicycle-sharing improves the
supply level of public traffic to some extent, because it has diverted a
portion of the travelers from public transport (especially for student
groups and youth groups). Then, bicycle-sharing plays a constructive
role in urban transportation as few travelers can find a bicycle-sharing
anywhere and at any time whenever they want to go out for a short trip.
In particular, this can save their precious time for travel and the price
remains to be very low. However, the operation and management of
bicycle-sharing are not perfect. Hence, we recommend the government
to introduce more strict laws and rules to avoid its disadvantages. Last
but not the least, we suggest the government to enhance the propa-
ganda and knowledge regarding the awareness of social responsibility
and environmental protection in citizens, which ultimately reduce the
artificial damage from sharing bikes.
Acknowledgment
This research was supported by the National Natural Science
Foundation of China (Reference No. 71571119), China Postdoctoral
Science Foundation (Reference No. 2018M630404), Humanities and
Social Science Research Project of Educational Department of Henan
Province (Reference No. 2019-ZZJH-047), and Shanghai First-class
Academic Discipline Project (Reference No. S1201YLXK).
Appendix A. Supporting information
Supplementary data associated with this article can be found in the
online version at doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2018.10.012.
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