Sector Flash

Update Report
Vietnam Residential Real Estate

Industry Real Estate Ongoing improvement in homebuyer confidence, brokerage

Report Date April 11, 2024
activities in Q1 2024
Several real estate agencies (including CBRE, Batdongsan.com.vn, and DXS-FERI) have recently
released their Q1 2024 residential market reports. Below are our key takeaways from agents’
comments on the transactions data, pricing trends, and their outlook for recovery in the sector.

Preparation for new project launches has ramped up. We observe that several developers
have held preparation activities for new project launches including groundbreaking,
Thuc Than
introduction, and sales launch events nationwide (see Figure 7). These events encompass new
Analyst
thuc.than@vietcap.com.vn projects located in both HCMC and Hanoi, as well as in second-tier provinces, and some have
+84 28 3914 3588 ext.174 involved foreign developers.

Hong Luu
Senior Manager
hong.luu@vietcap.com.vn
+84 28 3914 3588 ext.120
Key preparation events in Q1 2024 in the primary market nationwide include 1) groundbreakings
in Vinhomes Grand Park – The Opus One (HCMC) from Samty, Vinhomes Smart City – Lumi Hanoi
(Hanoi) from CapitaLand, PDR’s Thuan An 1 (Binh Duong), and 2) kick-off events in VHM’s
Vinhomes Royal Island (Hai Phong), CapitaLand’s Sycamore (Binh Duong), and Gamuda Land’s
Eaton Park (HCMC).

On March 15, VHM held an introduction event for the new project Vinhomes Royal Island (formerly
known as the Vu Yen project, Hai Phong Province, total size of 877 ha). This large-scale, mixed-
use integrated residential and commercial project is near Quang Ninh Province and surrounded
by rivers. The first launch to retail buyers includes over 2,000 low-rise units with an absorption
rate of over 60% as of end-Q1 2024, per CBRE. This performance reaffirms our projection for this
project to contribute 21% into our contracted sales value forecast for VHM’s 2024F
(VND75tn/USD3bn; -14% vs high base of bulk sales in 2023).

Primary condo transactions in Hanoi and HCMC in Q1 2024 decreased QoQ as new launches
in Hanoi were mainly in late-Q1 2024 (after the Tet holiday), while HCMC continued to see limited
new supply in the quarter. Based on our estimates from charts of CBRE’s data, total primary
condo transactions in Hanoi and HCMC combined were ~2,600 units in Q1 2024 (-53% QoQ and
-12% YoY). The QoQ decline in primary transactions in Q1 2024 was in line with our expectation.

Homebuyer confidence in Q1 2024 gradually improved QoQ. According to

Batdongsan.com.vn, the nationwide interest index for most property segments (excluding
shophouses) showed improvement in Q1 2024 (see Figure 6). Per CBRE, Q1 2024’s condo prices
in the primary and secondary markets in Hanoi increased QoQ while prices in HCMC were stable
QoQ mainly due to the higher proportion of high-end new supply and an improvement in
homebuyer interest in Hanoi.

Real estate agents continue to anticipate a recovery in transactions in 2024, with more
significant recovery expected in H2 2024 and a positive outlook for the condo segment. Primary
selling prices are expected to either increase slightly or remain stable (see Figure 5).

We expect a gradual improvement in primary property transactions in 2024 (reiterating our

view as stated in our Vietnam Strategy 2024 Report) with supply from new projects expected to
enter the market later in the year. The increase in preparation activities for new project launches
in Q1 2024 reaffirms our expectation for growth in primary property transactions in 2024 vs 2023,
which will be driven by: (1) sustained recoveries in homebuyer confidence and brokerage activity,
and (2) the introduction of new projects or next-phase launches at existing projects. In addition,
we continue to expect that the primary housing market in 2024 will welcome more new supply
from foreign developers, compared to the minimal new launches from such developers during
2022-2023.

Top picks among our residential coverage are VHM, KDH, and NLG. We believe homebuyers will
value the financial and operational resilience that these developers demonstrated in the
turbulent period for the industry from H2 2022 through H1 2023.
See important disclosure at the end of this document www.vietcap.com.vn April 11, 2024 | 1
 Update Report
Figure 1: Vietcap real estate stock coverage: Ratings and summary valuations
Code Rating Market State Foreign Foreign ADTV Share Target Target Upside Dividend 12M
Cap O'ship Limit Avail 30D Price Price Price % Yield TSR
USD mn % % USD mn USD mn VND ps VND ps Updated % %
VRE BUY 2,231 0% 49% 448 11.3 24,250 31,900 2/21/24 32% 0% 32%
VHM BUY 7,792 0% 50% 2,277 18.4 44,200 56,400 2/21/24 28% 0% 28%
KDH BUY 1,165 0% 50% 129 6.3 36,000 40,000 2/22/24 11% 0% 11%
NLG O-PF 662 0% 50% 14 7.7 42,500 43,300 2/6/24 2% 2% 4%
VIC O-PF 7,305 0% 48% 2,702 9.9 48,500 49,500 3/12/24 2% 0% 2%
DXG M-PF 572 0% 50% 170 16.3 19,600 19,400 3/13/24 -1% 0% -1%
DXS M-PF 182 0% 50% 55 0.8 7,760 7,600 3/8/24 -2% 0% -2%

Code Share EPS g EPS g EPS g P/E P/E P/E P/B P/B P/B ROE Net
price 2023 2024F 2025F LTM 2024F 2025F LQ 2024F 2025F 2024F D/E
VND ps % % % x x x x x x % LQ %
VRE 24,250 59% -6% 12% 12.5 13.2 11.8 1.5 1.3 1.2 10% -3%
VHM 44,200 15% -12% 12% 5.8 6.6 5.9 1.1 0.9 0.8 15% 21%
KDH 36,000 -36% 43% 18% 43.2 30.2 25.5 2.1 2.0 1.8 7% 17%
NLG 42,500 -12% 13% 30% 35.9 31.7 24.5 1.7 1.7 1.6 6% 19%
VIC 48,500 -77% 16% 13% 87.3 75.5 66.8 1.5 1.5 1.4 2% 120%
DXG 19,600 -18% 61% 31% 69.9 43.4 33.2 1.3 1.3 1.2 3% 35%
DXS 7,760 N.M. N.M. 97% N.M. 21.7 11.0 0.8 0.7 0.7 4% 24%

Source: Company data, Vietcap forecast. Note: Share prices as of April 10, 2024.

Figure 2: Total presales of Vietcap’s residential stock coverage (VND tn)

NLG DXG KDH VHM

Source: Companies’ data, Vietcap estimates and forecasts

Figure 3: Reservation and absorption rate in select new project launches as of end-Q1 2024
Project Developer Location Total units Launch Launched units Reservation/Absorption
time rate at end-Q1 2024
Vinhomes Royal VHM Hai Phong > 8,000 low-rise March 2024 > 2,000 low-rise > 60% presold
Island units units
The Privia KDH HCMC ~1,040 condo units November ~1,040 units ~100% presold as of
2023 February 2024
Eaton Park Gamuda Land HCMC ~2,000 condo units N/A Expected 540 > 500 reservations
units
Lumi Hanoi CapitaLand Hanoi ~4,000 condo units N/A Expected 2,200 > 4,000 reservations
units
Sycamore CapitaLand Binh Duong ~460 low-rise and N/A Expected 168 > 300 reservations
~3,300 condo units low-rise units

Source: CBRE, company information, Vietcap

See important disclosure at the end of this document www.vietcap.com.vn April 11, 2024 | 2
 Update Report
Figure 4: Vietcap’s summary of Q1 2024 market performance from select real estate agents
CBRE Batdongsan.com.vn* DXS – FERI **

Q1 2024 Sales activities, including reservation
results bookings for upcoming project launches,
were vibrant in Q1 2024 in both the northern
(Hanoi and Hai Phong) and southern regions
(HCMC and Binh Duong).
In Q1 2024, the condo prices in the primary
and secondary markets in Hanoi increased
QoQ, while HCMC observed stable QoQ
prices.
The price gap between primary condo prices
in HCMC and Hanoi has been narrowing. In Q1
2024, the primary condo prices in HCMC were
~10% higher than in Hanoi, compared to the
~35% higher prices recorded at the end-
2022.
The nationwide interest index in Since early 2024, groundbreaking ceremonies,
Q1 2024 for most property kick-off events, and the introduction of new
segments (excluding projects are warming up. Market sentiment has
shophouses) showed been gradually improving.
improvement in the quarter.
New supply in Q1 2024 increased ~8% vs total
supply at end-2023, mainly from existing
launched projects.
The absorption rate in Q1 2024 was stable QoQ.
Primary prices (excluding high-end projects) in
Q1 2024 were stable QoQ; Secondary prices
increased in Q1 2024 in some areas, especially
for the condo segment in Hanoi.

Condos Transaction: Q1 2024 condo prices in Hanoi In Q1 2024, the nationwide absorption rate (%
- Hanoi primary: ~2,000 sold units in Q1 experienced stronger growth of total accumulated launched units) was
2024 (-39% QoQ and flat YoY). than that of HCMC (+10% YoY in stable QoQ at ~25-30%, with the north at ~30-
- HCMC primary: ~600 sold units in Q1 2024 Hanoi, vs 4% YoY in HCMC), 40% and the south at ~20-25%.
(-74% QoQ and -37% YoY). mainly driven by an increased
The absorption rate in Q1 2024 was stable QoQ
New launches in Hanoi were mainly in late-Q1 proportion of high and mid-end
in all regions.
2024; while HCMC continued to see limited supply and resurgence of
new supply in the quarter. investment sentiment in the The condo prices in Q1 2024 improved QoQ in
Hanoi market. the north (2-5%) and the south (2-3%), while
Price: remaining stable in the central and the west.
- Hanoi: primary price was +5% QoQ and
+19% YoY; secondary price was +9% QoQ
and +17% YoY.
- HCMC: primary price was flat QoQ and -3%
YoY; secondary price was -1% QoQ and -
3% YoY.
New launches in Hanoi were mainly in the
high-end segment, driving the increase in the
average primary price in Q1 2024.

Landed Transaction: In Q1 2024, the nationwide - Townhouses and villas: The prices in Q1 2024
property - Hanoi primary: ~300 sold units in Q1 2024 interest index started to slightly improved QoQ in the north and the south (1-
(-57% QoQ and -73% YoY). improve for the land plot segment 3%), while remaining stable in the central and
- HCMC primary: 7 sold units in Q1 2024 due to 1) seasonality (i.e., the west.
(-68% QoQ and -84% YoY). periodical uptrends after the - Land plot: The prices in most regions were
Lunar New Year), 2) price stable QoQ, but slightly decreased QoQ in the
Price: correction in some areas, and 3) central region.
- Hanoi: primary price was +4% QoQ and +7% positive sentiment surrounding
YoY; secondary prices slightly edged up the anticipated land price
QoQ and YoY. increase when the Amended Land
- HCMC: primary price was flat QoQ and -3% Law comes into effect.
YoY; secondary prices slightly decreased in
projects far from the CBD, while CBD
projects remained stable.

Source: Companies’ Q1 2024 market reports, Vietcap compilation. (*) Batdongsan.com.vn is a real estate
marketplace platform; we note that its database is mainly compiled from selling news posted on the website,
searches of users, and broker surveys; (**) Dat Xanh Services Economic - Financial - Real Estate Research
Institute (DXS-FERI).

See important disclosure at the end of this document www.vietcap.com.vn April 11, 2024 | 3
 Update Report
Figure 5: Vietcap’s summary of 2024 outlook comments from select real estate agents
CBRE Batdongsan.com.vn* DXS – FERI ** Vietcap’s view ***
(for 2024 outlook) (for 2024 outlook) (for Q2 2024 outlook) (for 2024 outlook)

Transactions New primary condo supply in Turnaround signal is New supply is expected to We expect gradual
Hanoi is expected to reach expected to occur in Q2-Q4 increase ~25% QoQ in Q2 improvement in primary
~12,000 units in 2024 (+20% 2024 (unchanged vs their last 2024, mainly from projects property transactions in 2024
YoY), while HCMC is report in December 2023) that were introduced/ground with supply from new
forecasted to maintain its with four following phases (i) broken/received bookings as projects expected to enter
limited supply level with over initial recovery (Q3-Q4 2024), of Q1 2024. The condo the market later in the year.
8,000 units (flat YoY). accumulation (Q4 2024-Q1 segment is expected to lead
We expect that the primary
2025), acceleration (Q2-Q4 new supply.
housing market in 2024 will
2025), and stability (starting
welcome more new supply
from 2026).
from foreign developers,
supported by recent M&A.

Demand The observed interest from Agents expect the condo The demand is expected to Solid real demand (i.e.,
booking activities and new segment to have the most increase slightly by 5-10% purchases of homes for
project launches at end-Q1 positive outlook in 2024. QoQ in Q2 2024. living/rental purposes) will
2024 supports the lead the gradual recovery and
Condo projects with
expectation that supply and support 2024F presales for
reasonable pricing (i.e.,
absorption rates will improve mid-end projects.
below VND2.5bn or
in 2024.
USD100,000 per unit) and
attractive payment
schedules will continue to
have good absorption.

Market sentiment is
expected to improve, but a
cautious and observant
approach will be maintained.

Prices Primary price: Primary condo Not mentioned. Primary prices are expected Primary price: Net ASPs for
prices are projected to to be stable in Q2 2024 while mid-end condos and landed
increase 2-3% p.a. in 2024- the secondary prices are properties in the primary
2025 in HCMC and 8-10% p.a. expected to continue to market will increase at single-
in Hanoi in the same period, increase slightly ~5% QoQ. digit growth rates in 2024.
driven by the anticipated high
Secondary price: The resale
proportion of the high-end
prices of condos and landed
segment in the new supply in
properties in Hanoi and
Hanoi.
HCMC are expected to
Secondary price: Anticipated gradually recover. However,
strong recovery in secondary the pressure for sales at
condo prices by 20% YoY in discounts will remain in 2024
2024 in Hanoi, while HCMC is for speculative properties
projected to see a modest (i.e., land plots and
increase of 1% YoY. hospitality villas in second-
tier provinces).

Source: Companies’ Q1 2024 market reports, Vietcap compilation. (*) Batdongsan.com.vn is a real estate
marketplace platform; we note that its database is mainly compiled from selling news posted on the website,
searches of users, and broker surveys; (**) Dat Xanh Services Economic - Financial - Real Estate Research
Institute (DXS-FERI); (***) Reiterating our view as stated in our Vietnam Strategy 2024 Report.

See important disclosure at the end of this document www.vietcap.com.vn April 11, 2024 | 4
 Update Report
Figure 6: National interest index for each property segment from 2021 to Q1 2024

Source: Index from Batdongsan.com.vn, Vietcap

Figure 7: Active groundbreaking, introduction, and launch events for new projects in Q1
2024

Source: DXS – FERI, Vietcap

See important disclosure at the end of this document www.vietcap.com.vn April 11, 2024 | 5
 Update Report
Figure 8: Primary condo market in Hanoi and HCMC

Hanoi HCMC

Source: CBRE, Vietcap. Note: (*) Average primary asking prices of launched units, exclude VAT and quoted
on NSA;(1) Share of high-end segment in total new supply within each given period; (2) HCMC’s share of the
high-end segment in Q1 2024 based on the old classification would be 100%. CBRE applies its new condo
classification from Q1 2024; Luxury: over VND120mn/sqm (USD4,900); High-end: VND60mn to
VND120mn/sqm (USD2,400-4,900); Mid-end: VND35mn to VND60mn/sqm (USD1,400-2,400); Affordable:
below VND35mn/sqm (USD1,400).

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 Update Report

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 Update Report

Disclaimer
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 Update Report
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