Chapter Two

Population Distribution and

Composition

1
2.1 Population distribution
2.2. Age and Sex composition

2.3. Classification and quality of data

2.4. Measures of sex composition

2.5. Evaluation of Age Data

2.6. Analysis of Age Composition

2
 2.1. Population distribution

 Population distribution refers to the arrangement of the

population in space at a given time, that is, geographically or

among various types of residential areas.

 population composition refers to the numbers of person in sex,

age, and other demographic categories.

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2.2. Age and Sex composition

 Sex and age composition are the most important items collected in

all demographic enquiries.

 Separate data for males and females and for ages are important in

themselves, for the analysis of other types of data, and for the
evaluation of the completeness and accuracy of the census counts
of population.

4
 Many types of planning, both public and private require

separate population data for males and females and for age
groups.

 Age data are required for preparing current population

estimates and projections; projections of households, school

enrolment, and labour force, as well as projections of
requirements for schools, teachers, health services, food, and
housing.

5
 Social scientists of many types also have a special interest in the
age and sex structure of a population, because social
relationships within a community are considerably affected by
the relative numbers of males and females and the relative
numbers at each age.
 Natality(Fertility), mortality, migration, marital status, and
economic characteristics, statistics are sometimes shown only
for both sexes combined; but the ordinary and more useful
practice is to present and analyse the statistics separately for
males and females.
6
 Age is arguably the most important variable in the study of

mortality, fertility, marital status, and certain other areas of

demographic analysis.

 Tabulations on age are essential in the computation of the basic

measures relating to the factors of population change, in the

analysis of the factors of labour supply, and in the study of the
problem of economic dependency.

7
 As with data on sex, a large part of the usefulness of the age

classification lies in its cross classifications with other

demographic characteristics in which one may be primarily
interested.

 For example, the cross-classifications of age with marital

status, labour force, and migration make possible a much

more effective use of census data on these subjects.

8
Population pyramid

 A population pyramid graphically displays a population‘s age

and sex composition.

 A population pyramid is designed to give a detailed picture of

the age-sex structure of a population, indicating either single

ages, 5-year groups, or other age combinations.

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 Conventions and special features of population
pyramids

a) Population pyramids are always drawn showing the male

population on the left hand side and the female population on
the right.

b) The young are always at the bottom and the old at the top. It
is conventional to use either single-year or five-year age
groups, though other groupings are possible.

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 c) The last open-ended age group is normally omitted entirely
from the pyramid because it is impossible to draw truthfully.

d) The bottom (Horizontal axis) scale can be either absolute

numbers or percentages.

e) The choice of scales affects greatly the final shape of the

pyramid.

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  Pyramids may be constructed on the basis of either absolute

numbers or percentages.

Three General Profiles

 Populations of countries can differ markedly as a result of

past and current patterns of fertility, mortality, and

migration.

 However, they all tend to fall into three general profiles of

age-sex composition.

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 1. Rapid growth: It is indicated by a pyramid with a large
percentage of the population in the younger ages.

2. Slow growth: It is reflected by a pyramid with a smaller

proportion of the population in the younger ages.

3. Zero growth or decreasing population: It is shown by

roughly equal numbers of people in all age ranges, tapering
off gradually at the older ages.

13
 …

14
2.3. Classification and quality of data

 The definition and classification of sex present no statistical

problems. It is a readily ascertainable characteristic, and the

data are easy to obtain.

 Age is a more complex demographic characteristic than sex.

The age of an individual in censuses is commonly defined in

terms of the age of the person at his or her last birthday.

15
  In some cases, age has been defined in terms of the age at the
nearest birthday or even the next birthday, but these
definitions are no longer employed in national censuses.

 Age data collected in censuses or national sample surveys may

be tabulated in single years of age, 5-year age groups, or

broader groups.

 The principal problem relating to the quality of the data

collected in censuses concerns the difference in the

completeness of coverage.
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2.4. Measures of sex composition
 The numerical measures of sex composition are few
and simple to compute.
Masculinity Proportion
(or percentage male, or its complement, the percentage
female)
Proportion of males =

Proportion of females =
17
 Sex Ratio

 The sex ratio is usually defined as the number of males per

100 females

Sex Ratio =

 One hundred is the point of balance of the sexes according

to this measure.

 A sex ratio above 100 denotes an excess of males; a sex ratio

below 100 denotes an excess of females.

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 The sex ratio at birth (SRB)
 SRB is the number of male births, over female births.

Excess (or deficit) of males as a percentage of the total

population, is given by the formula

 The point of balance of the sexes according to this measure,

or the standard, is zero; a positive value denotes an excess of

males and a negative value denotes an excess of females.

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 Example: Sex composition for Ethiopia as on July 1, 2004

Sex Ratios In terms of Population Subgroups

 Because the sex ratio may vary widely from one population subgroup

to another, it is frequently desirable to consider separately the sex

ratios of the important component subgroups in any detailed analysis
of the sex composition of a population group.
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 Use of Sex Ratios in Data Evaluation

 The simplest approach to evaluation of the quality of the data

on sex for an area consists of observing the deviation of the sex

ratio for the area as a whole from 100, the point of equality of
the sexes.

 A sex ratio deviating appreciably from 100—say, below 90 or

above 105—must be accounted for in terms of migration (both

the volume and sex composition of the migrants being relevant)
or a very high death rate, including war mortality.
21
 2.5. Evaluation of Age Data

 The data on age is important in the description and analysis of

the size and composition of populations.

 It is used to classify and describe other demographic variables

such as marital status, educational status, place of residence,

type of employment and type of frequency of disease.

 Age is an important variable in using indirect estimation of

demographic parameters.

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  In measuring the potential schooling population, potential

voting population, potential manpower, etc…

 In preparing current population estimates and projections.

 In revealing requirements of various social services.

 In the study of mortality, fertility and certain other areas of

demographic studies.

A large part of the usefulness of age data lies in its service in

cross-classifications with other demographic variables.

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Source of Errors in Age Data

 Census and sample survey- in those countries that have a

complete vital registration system, the collection of age of

individuals during census and sample survey data collection
operation would not be a problem.

 Errors in age reporting are more frequent than errors in sex

reporting.

The sources of errors in age data are:

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 a) Coverage errors

 Some individuals may not be counted or may be counted twice

in censuses, likewise in surveys among the sample units some

may not be covered by the survey.

b) Failure to record age

 due to the failure on the part of the data collector or the

respondent, age of individuals may not be reported in censuses

and sample surveys.

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 c) Misreporting of age

 This occurs due to the preference of some digits at the

expense of others.

 It can take two possible forms ―heaping‖ or ―shifting‖.

 Age heaping, age or digit preference, that occurs in

situations where too many people prefer to report ages

ending with 0 and 5 while relatively few give ages ending in
the others.

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  Age shifting is a more serious problem than age heaping.

 The reasons for the prevalence of age shifting that are

commonly found or stated in various literatures include:

 Older people intending to exaggerate their ages (to get

prestige)

 Young men understating or overstating their ages to avoid, for

example military service etc…

 Young mothers tending to exaggerate their age, while older,

unmarried women understating.

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 Measures of Age Reporting Errors

 The most commonly used measures of ―age heaping (digit

preference)‖ are Whipple‘s index and Myers‘ Blended index.

 The commonly used measures of age shifting are Age Ratio

Analysis and UN Age-Sex Accuracy Index

 Whipple’s Index is a test usually employed to measure age

preferences for terminal digits ‗0‘ and ‗5‘ as compared to

other digits.

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 Calculation of Whipple’s Index

 We may measure heaping on terminal digit ―0‖ in the range

23 to 62 very roughly by comparing the sum of the

populations at the ages ending in ―0‖ in this range with one-
tenth of the total population in the range:

29
  Similarly, we may measure heaping on multiples of five

(terminal digits ―0‖ and ―5‖combined) in the range 23 to 62 by

comparing the sum of the populations at the ages in this range
ending in ―0‖ or ―5‖and one-fifth of the total population in the
range:

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  It varies between 100, representing no preference for ―0‖ or

―5,‖ and 500, indicating that only digits ―0‖ and ―5‖ were
reported.

 If age data is accurately reported and recorded, then the value

of whipple‘s index is expected to be 100.

 The rating of the quality of age data for different values of

Whipple‘s Index is shown in the following table:

31
 The choice of the range 23 to 62 is largely arbitrary.

 In computing indexes of heaping, the ages of childhood and old

age are often excluded because they are more strongly affected
by other types of errors of reporting than by preference for
specific terminal digits.
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Example:
Age population Age population Age population Age population
(years) (persons) (years) (persons) (years) (persons) (years) (persons)

23 527688 33 257237 43 172296 53 111873

24 500487 34 213562 44 103220 54 99373
25 1602391 35 1373404 45 974790 55 468028
26 541223 36 336611 46 169545 56 128862
27 493027 37 292232 47 141560 57 88525
28 903741 38 574395 48 280154 58 145766
29 257800 39 176419 49 85915 59 49926
30 1833334 40 1568803 50 1121703 60 835713
31 179489 41 125915 51 77565 61 45566
32 510451 42 323098 52 173319 62 89017

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 Whipple‘s Index of age
heaping on terminal digit ‗0‘

Whipple‘s Index for age heaping

on the terminal digits ‗0‘ and ‗5‘

 Since the values of Whipple‘s Index for age heaping on the

terminal digit ‗0‘ and also on terminal digits ‗0‘ and ‗5‘ are
above 175, it can be said that reporting of age is very rough.

34
Limitations of Whipple’s index

 It does not measure preference for digits other than ‗0‘ and ‗5‘.

 It considers only the arbitrary interval 23 to 62 years and not

the entire life span of 0 to 80 or 100 years.

 It‘s applicable only to single year‘s data.

35
 Myers’ Blended Method
 Myers‘ Blended Index is usually used to measure degree of

preference for each digit and it provides summary index for

all terminal digits.

Step 1: Sum the populations ending in each digit over the

whole range, starting with the lower limit of the range

Step 2: Ascertain the sum excluding the first population

combined in step 1

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 Step 3: Weight the sums in steps 1 and 2 and add the results to
obtain a blended population(e.g., weights 1 and 9 for the 0
digit; weights 2 and 8 for the 1 digit).

Step 4: Convert the distribution in step 3 into percentages.

Step 5: Take the deviation of each percentage in step 4 from

10.0, the expected value for each percentage.

 The results in step 5 indicate the extent of concentration on

or avoidance of a particular digit.

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  The weights in step 3 represent the number of times the

combination of ages in step 1 or 2 is included when the

starting age is varied from 10 to 19.

 Note that the weights for each terminal digit would differ if

the lower limit of the age range covered were different.

 A summary index of preference for all terminal digits is

derived as one-half the sum of the deviations from 10.0%,

each taken without regard to sign.

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  If age heaping is non-existent, the index would approximate

zero.

 This index is an estimate of the minimum proportion of

persons in the population for whom an age with an incorrect

final digit is reported.

 The theoretical range of Myers‘s index is 0, representing no

heaping, to 90, which would result if all ages were reported

at a single digit, say zero.

39
Example: Calculate Myers‘ Blended Index for the ranges of age between 30 and 59 years
from the data given in the example for Whipple‘s Index.

40
Limitations of Myer’s Blended Index

It has no sound theoretical basis

It does not capture other forms of age bias

is not suitable for grouped data.

41
 Age Ratio Analysis

 The quality of census data by age groups may be evaluated by

comparing ‗Age Ratios‘, which are calculated from the census

data, with expected or standard values.

 An age ratio may be defined as the ratio of the population in

the given age group to one- third of the sum of the

populations in the age group itself and the preceding and
following groups, times 100.

42
  The age ratio for a five –year age group is defined as

 If there is no birth, death, or migration fluctuation in the past,

then the three age groups should form a nearly linear series.

 Age Ratios should then approximate to 100.

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  The average of the mean deviation for males and the mean

deviation for females is a measure of the overall accuracy of

the age data, which can be compared with the same kind of
measure for other years or other areas.

 The lower the age-accuracy index, the more adequate the

census data on age would appear to be.

44
45
 United Nation’s Age -Sex Accuracy Index

 The United Nation has proposed Age-Sex Accuracy Index

based solely on age ratios to incorporate some measure of

accuracy of sex ratios.

 In this index the mean of the differences from age to age in

reported sex ratios, without regard to sign, is taken as a

measure of accuracy of the observed sex ratios, on the
assumption that these age to age changes should approximate
zero.
46
 The UN age- sex accuracy index combines the sum of
 the mean deviation of the age ratios for males from 100,

 the mean deviation of the age ratios for females from 100 and

 three times the mean of the age-to-age differences in reported

sex ratios.

 Hence, the mean index is equal to three times the mean

difference in sex ratios plus mean deviation of male and female

ratios

47
  In the UN age-sex accuracy index, an age ratio is defined as
the ratio of the population in a given age group to one-half
the sum of the populations in the preceding and following
age groups.

48
UN Age-Sex Accuracy Index = 3(Mean Difference in Sex Ratios)
+ Mean Deviations of Male Age Ratio+ Mean Deviation of
Female Age Ratio.

 The rating categories for the UN age-sex accuracy index are

―accurate‖, ―inaccurate‖ or ― highly inaccurate‖ depending on

whether the UN index is less than 20, 20 to 40, or over 40
respectively.

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 population Analysis of Sex Ratios Analysis of Age Ratios
E.g.:
Age Group Male Female
(years)
Deviation
Male Female Sex Ratio Successive difference Age ratio Deviation Age ratio from 100
from 100

00-04 3970815 3872822 102.53 ……… …….. ………. ………… …………

05-09 4392326 4235726 103.70 1.17 109.94 -9.94 112.74 -12.74
10-14 4019844 3641450 110.39 6.69 108.25 -8.25 101.12 -1.12
15-19 3034425 2966598 102.29 -8.10 99.73 0.27 101.63 -1.63
20-24 2065261 2196332 94.03 -8.26 85.97 14.03 87.95 12.05
25-29 1770124 2028058 87.28 -6.75 102.76 -2.76 106.45 -6.45
30-34 1379956 1614117 85.49 -1.79 90.35 9.65 92.33 7.67
35-39 1284575 1468486 87.48 1.99 102.32 -2.32 105.78 -5.78
40-44 1130873 1162459 97.28 9.80 104.40 -4.40 103.86 -3.86
45-49 881917 770047 114.53 17.25 91.84 8.16 78.71 21.29
50-54 789731 794102 99.45 -15.08 115.66 -15.66 136.03 -36.03
55-59 483638 397469 121.68 22.23 71.23 28.77 60.71 39.29
60-64 568266 515351 110.27 -11.41 141.30 -41.30 162.39 -62.39
65-69 320712 237249 135.18 24.91 74.44 25.56 62.21 37.79
70-74 293375 247444 118.56 -16.62 128.11 -28.11 149.79 -49.79
75-79 137296 93145 147.40 28.84 65.67 34.33 53.17 46.83
80-84 124746 102912 121.22 -26.18 141.77 -41.77 176.31 -76.31
85-89 38688 23594 163.97 42.75 44.98 55.02 35.23 64.77
90+ 47279 31043 152.30 -11.67 ………. ……… ………. …………
Total of deviations (irrespective of sign)
261.49 ………. 330.30 ……… 485.79

50
Mean value 14.55 ……... 19.43 ………. 28.58
 UN Age-Sex Accuracy Index

= 3(14.55) + 19.43 + 28.58 = 91.66

 Since the UN Age-Sex Accuracy Index is above 40, it can be

said that the distribution of population by age and sex is

highly inaccurate.

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2.6. Analysis of Age Composition

 Data on age are most commonly tabulated and published in 5-year

groups (0–4, 5–9, etc.).

 A classification of the total population into several mutually

exclusive broad age groups having general functional significance

may be found useful for a wide variety of analytic purposes.

Age dependency ratio

 The age-dependency ratio is the ratio of persons in the ―dependent‖

ages (generally under age 15 and over age 64) to those in the

52
―economically productive‖ ages (15-64 years) in a population.
  Age-dependency ratio is often used as an indicator of

the economic burden the productive portion of a

population must carry even though some persons defined
as ―dependent‘ are producers (Owners of production
firms aged 65 and above) and some persons in the
‗productive‘ ages are economically dependent (Students,
Unemployed persons and unpaid House-wives aged
between 15 and 64 years).

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  The overall age dependency ratio is represented as

Age dependency ratio

 It is expressed as the ratio of number of persons under 15

years and over 65 years to the number of persons aged 15 to

64 years.

 The components of the overall age dependency ratio are

54
 Child-dependency ratio: It represents the ratio of children
less than 15 years to persons aged 15-64 years.

Child-dependency ratio =

Old-age dependency ratio: It represents the ratio of persons

aged 65 years and over to persons aged 15-64 years.

Old-age dependency ratio

55
56
 Aging of Population

 Aging of a population should be distinguished from the aging

of individuals, an increase in the longevity of individuals, or

an increase in the average length of life pertaining to a
population.

 The aging of a population is a characteristic of an age

distribution and is importantly affected by the trend of the

birth rate as well as by the trend of mortality.

57
  The median age is often used as a basis for describing a

population as ―young‖ or ―old‖ or as ―aging‖ or ―younging‖(i.e.,

―growing younger‖).

 Populations with medians under 20 may be described as

―young,‖ those with medians 30 or over as ―old,‖ and those

with medians 20 to 29 as of ―intermediate‖ age.

58
  The proportion of aged persons has also been regarded as an

indicator of a young or old population and of a population

that is aging or younging . On this basis,
 populations with 10.0% or more 65 years old and over may

be said to be old.

 populations with under 5.0% may be said to be young.

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  If the proportion under age 15 is

 under 25.0% the population may be characterize as old and

 35.0% and over the population may be characterize as young.

Aged-child ratio =

 Populations with aged-child ratios under 15, may be described as

young and populations with aged-child ratios over 30 may be
described as old.

60