into and out of the center of the city.
As horsedrawn streetcars were
2 replaced by electric-powered "trolley" streetcars, this pattern of drivel
The Demand for Transportation
2.1 INTRODUCTION
The basic concern of transportation systems analysts is to be able to
anticipate the consequences of any proposed change in a transporta-
tion system. In chapter 1 a basic framework for prediction was pre-
sented. This framework focused on the interrelationships between
transportation and the socioeconomic activity system, and three basic
types of interrelations were identified. In this chapter we shall deal with
two of these interrelations: first, that between the pattern of social and
economic activities and the short-run demand for transportation; and
second., the influence of transportation upon the long-run distribution
of social and economic activities. Thus our purpose in this chapter
is to explore the behavioral aspects of transportation—the activity
system and the way we represent it for the analysis of transportation
systems.
2,2 THE NE ED TO UND ERSTAND HUMAN BEHAVIOR
2.2.1 The Effects of Transportation on Social and Economic
Activity
Transportation has always played an important role in influencing the
development of societies. In more recent history transportation has
played a major role in the development of the modern industrial city.
Cities usually develop at some natural transportation link—an inter-
section of trade routes, a river junction, a harbor. Then, as they grow in
population, they begin to expand geographically. During their early years
the major influence on development is that of the local topography.
However, as cities begin to reach a scale beyond that of reasonable
walking distance, the available transportation technologies play a role in
shaping their forms. For example, in the development of American cities
during Me middle of the nineteenth century, horse-drawn streetcars
provided radial spokes along which the development of suburbs took
place (S B. Warner 1962). Those spokes. radiated outward !torn thn
cnnitn1 Imminoss district end served to MOVII
1.-1
opment along the radial spokes of the transportation arteries con-
tinued. These arteries were replaced and extended by suburban rail-
roads, which stimulated the development of even more extensive con
muter suburbs.
With the coming of the automobile, the areas between the radial
spokes began to be filled in. Even so, until the end of World War II
the level of reliance on public transport was such that cities remained
relatively compact.
In America, with the ending of World War II, a combination of public
policies and private aspirations resulted in forces that significantly
changed the character of most cities. Growth in personal income lad
to a rapid increase in the number of private automobiles and the fut.
fillment for many of the dream of a single-family house on a small lot
in the suburbs. The explosion of American population into suburbia
was accelerated and aided by this growth in auto ownership, by federal
housing policies that made mortgage money more easily available, and
by the development of extensive systems of express highways. Thom
express, limited-access highways allowed rapid movement for large
numbers of automobiles and trucks, radially from the central cities to
the suburbs and circumferentially among suburbs. This system of
highways accelerated the dispersal of population, businesses, and
industry. As suburban shopping centers mushroomed to bring goods
and services to the growing suburban populations, the role of central
business districts began to change. Industrial parks in the suburbs
brought jobs to where people lived.
Of course, as use of the automobile became easier and as popula
tion dispersed, there was a corollary effect on public transit. Transit
ridership had been declining since the early 1920s as incomes had
risen and the number of private automobiles had increased. With
rapid postwar development of highways and acceleration of dIspoisir in.
the decline of public transit became calamitous. As transit ridership
dropped and labor costs increased, fares were increased and sei vii
cut back in order to stabilize deficits, These changes resulted in further
declines in use and made automobiles relatively more attractive .
This short sketch of American urban patterns illustrates the extensive
Interrelationship between transportation and social and era-amine
activity (Mayer. Karin, and Wahl 1965), Similar plateaus have b4,11(111 Ii
emerge in Wosiern lEutupo .
At 0 Moit~l Flo, esesiallei the reowili of air travel Tern 19/1110
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 The convenience of present-day intercity air travel within North America derstanding of human behavior in response to transportation system
and within Western Europe has had important effects on the behavior changes is far from perfect, but substantial progress is being made,
patterns of businessmen on these two continents. One can make a This information can be summarized in a demand function, which
round trip between Boston and Washington or between London is a representation of human behavior that can be used to predict how
and Paris in a single day, and many businessmen and government an individual or firm, or groups of individuals or firms, will respond to
changing conditions.
officials may visit two to four cities each week.
Similarly, air transportation also provides great opportunities for
2.2.3 The Dimensions of Human Behavior
social and recreational travel. Even people with moderate incomes can
afford to take vacations, at any season of the year, for a few days or up
LEVELS OF CHOICE
to a month, almost anywhere in the world. In Boston, weekends in
Miami are advertised widely; in Paris, weekends in New York or In most countries an individual's &ctivity pattern can be defined
by the choices he or she makes about such things as employment,
Tangiers or even Jerusalem.
including type of work, income, and location; residence, including
Similar interrelationships between transportation and social and
location, type of home, type of neighborhood.. and such related factors
economic activities can be discerned in other contexts. For example, in
as schools, access to shopping, interactions with neighbors, and
;' country undergoing rapid development, a proposal for major improve-
ments in the national highway network raises fundamental questions. rents or mortgage rates; "consumption.' patterns; shopping and other
What impact will such a highway network have on the development per-
pattern ? Will it aid the economic development and social viability of sonal business activities, including goods and services purchased,
shopping areas frequented, prices paid, as well as related activities
small towns and cities in the hinterland? Or will the highway systems
such as "browsing" or banking; and social and recreational activities,
and bus services make the one or two major metropolitan areas of the
such as visiting friends and relatives and excursions on weekends and
country more attractive and more accessible, so that people migrate in
holidays.
large numbers to the metropolis? Alternatively, what should be the
Each individual has a conception of the activity pattern that would
relative roles of rail, truck, and water for freight transport ? The provi-
constitute a full and satisfying life. This is the "basic" demand that
sion of transportation in a developing country can have a significant
motivates individual and household decisions: the desire to undertake
Impact on the social and economic development patterns, and trans-
particular activity patterns.
portation planning in this context must therefore quite explicitly be a
There are several "levels" of choice that an individual must make
port of overall national development planning.
(figure 2.1). At the highest, most basic level is the choice of a desired
pattern of activity that reflects one's life-style aspirations. Then, in
2.2.2 What We Are Trying to Predict
As analysts, our goal is to predict the effects of a change in the trans- order to undertake a particular activity pattern, the individual must
portation system on the broader fabric of society. As discussed above, ho at particular locations at particular times; this leads to basic
such changes in the transportation system of a region can have sig- locational choices, including the choice of a residential location and of
nificant effects on the patterns of social and economic activity. In the a place of
short run a change in the transportation system will be reflected in
1.14-ityks Aiplrohont
changes in travel patterns; over a longer period of time the location
and oven the nature of !Padal and economic activity may change
significantly. Dewed Activihr Porierni

To predict how Om individuals and linnq in a rrigion

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 work_ Such locational choices form a second level of decisions.
Next, In order to undertake the desired activities at the chosen
locations, a third level of chokes is required: choices about where,
when, and how id travel,
DERIVED DEMAND
The travel choices are the ones that lead directly to a "demand" or
desire" for travel. It is clear, then, that the demand for travel is a
derived demand, in this sense: travel is desirable not in itself but as a
means of being at certain locations at certain times, and this goal is
itself derived from the desire to undertake certain patterns of activities.
Thus, to understand the demand for travel we need, ideally, to under-
stand the basic human desires for various activity patterns; from
this we could derive the demand for locations of activities, especially
for locations of residence and workplace, and from this locational
demand we could derive the demand for travel,
A similar hierarchy of chokes exists in the freight sector. The
primary choices made by commercial enterprises include the
products to produce, the general markets to pursue, and the
magnitude of economic activity (sales, employment, investment) to
engage in, In order to achieve a desired pattern of economic activity,
the firm must make locational decisions for its production facilities
and select specific markets (that is, geographic regions) to be served
and sources of raw materials. From these choices are then derived the
commodity transportation choices: which commodities to ship, from
where, to where, by what means (see figure 2.2).
Clearly, in the cases of both personal travel and freight movements,
the choices at each level interact in significant ways. For example,
the
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choice whether or not to produce a particular commodity at X for
sale in market V is determined in part by the available
transportation choices.
A WORKI NG HYP OT HES IS
At the present time we know most about the demand for transporta-
-
tion and Least about the desire for certain activity patterns. Therefore, in
order to cut through the complexity of the interactions between the
transportation and the socioeconomic activity systems, we make the
following hypothesis: It is feasible to separate the long-run
shifts in the location and scale of socioeconomic activity,
from the short-run behavior of the market for transporta-
tion. Under this hypothesis, in considering the demand for transporta-
tion, we may assume that the patterns of social and economic activity are
fixed. Then we can treat the related problem of the long-run shift in
socioeconomic activity separately from that of the demand for
travel; this we have called the activity shift_ The separation of demand
and activity-shift models—the type 1 and type 2 relationships in the
analytical framework introduced in chapter 1—reflects this
hypothesis.
Thus, recalling our earlier definition of a demand function as a repre-
sentation of human behavior, we find it convenient to separate the
"total" demand function into two parts. The transportation demand
function is a representation of human behavior which can be used to
predict how individuals or firms, or groups of individuals or firms, will
change transportation choices in response to changes in future condi-
tions_ The activity-shift function is a representation of human be-
havior which can be used to predict how individuals or firms, or
groups of individuals or firms, will change activity and location
choices in response to changes in future conditions.
In a sense, the basic difference is in the time scale over which deci-
sions take place. Transportation decisions can be made and changed
very quickly. Changes in the location and scale of socioeconomic ac-
tivity take much longer to occur. Therefore, another way of interpreting
the hypothesis is that it is useful to distinguish between short-run and
Inn-run decision.
This hypothesis is one that has often been made in practice, and it
urdeful for teaching purposes. However, ongoing research suggests
that It may bo too simple. We shall discuss this further in chapter 11,
Nit 10p tlrr, roNt of Olio chapter we shall assume its validity. For sim-
plicity, WIMBOV4Pf we %Ay "demand" we shall mean "demand for trans-
eiattrin- entomb expileitly stated otherwise.
111.1 1o.rhrisimr1o1110114
 2 . 3 BE HAV I O R A T T H E I N D I V I D U A L L E V E L
The problem of predicting the demand for transportation can be ap-
proached at two levels♦ that of the individual or that of groups of indi-
viduals. By an individual we mean any group that behaves as a single
unit in making transportation decisions. Such a unit can be: for goods
movements, a firm, a part of a firm, such as the shipping or traffic
department, or an individual such as a traffic manager or shipping
clerk; for personal travel, a household, consisting of several interacting
persons, or a single person. The essential point is that when a unit
consists of more than one person, they interact in reaching a decision.
For example, in a household where several drivers (parents and teenage
children, say) share one automobile, the decisions about use of the
automobile in the evening and on weekends may involve a collective
decision among competing demands.
For simplicity, we shall use the term consumer to denote a single
decision-making unit, wh ether that unit consists of one or several
persons,
Z.J.1 A Model of Consumer Behavior
Once we recognize that we are dealing with human behavior, we see
that we face a tremendous challenge: People are complex; their pref-
erences and decision-making behaviors are very different and are
continually changing. In order to predict future travel, we must under-
stand human behavior in a way that can produce operational results.
Thus any model for explaining consumer behavior must indicate (1)
what alternative choices consumers perceive; (2) what consequences
of these alternatives they consider important; and (3) how they make
their choices from among the perceived alternatives.
ALTERNATIVE CHOICES
basic decisions with which the consumer must deal from the point
1l11.1
of view of transportation are whether to make a trip, where to make the
trip, at what time to make the trip, and which mode and route to take.
TPRPSU decisions ere obviously highly interrelated. The extent of this
Interrelationship depends on, among other things,. the purpose of the
trip. For example, in an urban area trips between home and work have
urn "whether" and "whore" fixed; the individual generally has a fixed
rreerience end a fixed workplace and is committed to making the home-
1E1 work trip regularly The tirrio,. mode, and route .11-1111 isra 'equally
1111114111liter! iimothar and on 11 II pattern Ii
01114111T11111 rarely clinneen thew docislonu. On -- -JP 4),A11 ilf .1‘111f., rammirlie
114 141111440 lor
another example: where to go on a summer weekend. For this kind of
recreational trip, all the options are open and are probably determined
simultaneously.
ATTRIBUTES
What factors does the consumer take into account when choosing
among these alternatives ? In introducing the basic framework of
analysis in chapter 1, we defined the concept of service level, S: the
service variables are those attributes of the transportation system
that influence the consumer's decisions as to whether, where, when,
and how to make a trip. In general, each consumer considers a num-
ber of service variables. Therefore, the consequences are expressed as
a vector, S = (Si, S2..... SO. An illustrative list of service
variables is given in table 21. As this list shows, consumers may con-
sider many attributes of transportation service, in general, different
consumers will consider different service attributes to be important,
reflecting differences in their socioeconomic characteristics and pref-
erences. Since it is usually not possible to include explicitly all possible
service variables when forecasting travel demand, an important prac-
tical problem is to identify those service variables that have the greatest
influence on consumer choices. Another important and related
practical problem is that some service variables cannot readily be
quantified ("comfort," "safety," "perceived security").
Furthermore, even such seemingly simple attributes as "travel time"
turn out to be complex in their influence on traveler behavior. In table
2.2 we show some of this complexity by breaking down travel time
into some of its major components. These components are perceived
differently in different situations; for example, in some travel forecasts
"excess time" or "out-of-vehicle time" is defined as "all time com-
ponents other than in-vehicle travel time."
In addition, "time" is not always synonymous with "distance" from
the viewpoint of consumer behavior. For example, numerous surveys
have shown that walking distance is a very important determinant of
uii ridership—very few people will walk more than a quarter mile to
taus. Thus walking distance should usually be one of the service
toomotimi used to predict ridership on a bus system.
(hi i i u other hand, for a door-to-door system such as the demand-
10.111311 ,avri bus -"dial-a-ride—there is no walking required, so walk-
PI iq l ill d 'co ie obviously not a Wane However, the reliability of total
Cril • 111114, Ii )1 I liril •a I Itio rniiv i Nr lowirr ihan for most transportation sys-
eIt e.:1 MOM so this service variable
!PRI 14rP Irpme101141101111
Table 2.1 illustrative service attributes Table 2.2 Major components of travel time

Time-' Out of vehicle time

- - in-vehicle time
Access time Walk time Time In feeder vehicle (for example,
total trip time
Wait time in automobile or bus en route to
reliability (variance in trip time)
mainline transit)
time spent al transfer points Line-haul time Transfer time Time in line-haul vehicle (mainline
frequency of service transit time or automobile driving
time)
schedule limes

Cost to truer
direct transportation clhargas such as fares, tolls, fusl, and parking should be Included in any dial-a-ride analysis. Thus service attributes
other direct operating costs such as loading and documentation will have different degrees of importance in influencing consumer
Indirect costs such as the cost of acquiring, maintaining, and Insuring an auto- behavior for different transportation systems. Therefore the service
mobile or, for freight, warehousing, interest, and Insurance variables to be included in any analysis will depend to some extent on
Safety the systems being analyzed.
probability of fatality or of destruction of cargo In general, travel time, wait time, and fare have been the primary
probability of accident of any sort service variables used to predict traveler behavior in urban transporta-
probability distribution of accident types (shock vibration, water damage, and
tion, especially for conventional transit services. The relationships might
so on) simply be described as follows: as the transit travel time, wait time, and
perceived security fare decrease, the level of usage of transit will increase—more con-
Comfort and convenience for user sumers will find the transit mode more attractive.
walking distance
DECISION PROCESS
number of vehicle changes required
The third major feature of a model of consumer behavior must be a
physical comfort (temperature, humidity, cleanliness, ride quality, exposure to
weather) description of how the consumer operates on the two preceding sets of
psychological comfort (status, privacy) information—the perceived alternatives and the attributes of those
other amenities (baggage handling, ticketing, beverage and food service) alternatives—to reach a decision. A part of this description must in-
e njoyment of trip clude some representation of the consumer's preferences or goals as
• eelhalic experiences well as some characterization of the consumer in ways that allow us to
Shipper services
distinguish among the behavior patterns of different groups of con-
division and reconsIgnrnent privileges sumers. Various formulations can be proposed for this decision process.
insurance We shall next examine two particular formulations.
'Time Is ofte-n divided into the components shown in table 22.
2.3.2 Consumer Behavior Model I
In this first model it is assumed that the consumer: formulates his
preferences explicitly, identifies explicitly all the alternatives open to
him, identifies the consequences of each alternative, and evaluates the
alternatives end chooses among thEirn using a well-defined decision
rule.

f1f 11111SENTING PREFERENCES

A i-ny 11.4it11rel of this model is the approach taken to representing the
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