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Probability
Probability
Probability
specific event occurring, which is expressed as a number between 1 and 0. Because of no other
alternatives in a coin-flipping game, if the coin lands flat, the odds of a coin flip falling in
"heads" or "tails" are one in ten. A probability of.5 means that the data has an equal chance of
occurring or not occurring: the probability of a coin flip yielding "heads" is.5 because the flip is
(Grinstead, 2012).
A gambling conflict led two famous French mathematicians, Blaise Pascal and Pierre de
Fermat, to invent the probability in 1654. Antoine Gombaud, Chevalier de Méré, a French
aristocrat interested in betting and gambling concerns, alerted Pascal to an apparent contradiction
regarding a popular dice game. When Blaise Pascal began to consider responses to a common
issue during a game performed by two people in the mid-17th century, he laid the framework for
the quantitative topic of probability (Devlin, 2008). The issue is on a multi-round game in which
both participants have an equal opportunity to succeed a pre-determined reward, with the rule
demanding a victor payout. When the game comes to an abrupt end, both players want the
reward to be distributed in an equitable way to both of them. To explain this situation, the term
"problem of points" was developed." (Bernoulli, 2011) . If the tournament were to proceed where
it was interrupted, Pascal argued that a reasonable option to the "points problem" would be to
divide the prize according to the players' respective likelihood of success. "Games of dice," in
which gamers agree to roll dice for a set number of rounds, would be a game Pascal would look
at while coming up with his solution. The individual who rolls the most significant number each
round and wins the most matches is the champion (Bernoulli, 2011).
Through his probability and decision theory efforts, Daniel Bernoulli created the still-
controversial concept of decreasing net cost. Bernoulli presented a scenario in which a person
participates in a game to win the container in which an initial wage is deposited. The participant
throws a coin, and if it lands on chiefs, they win the amount in the container.; if it lands on the
opposite side, the tournament organizer multiplies the money in the plastic container. When the
coin lands on heads, the game is over. However, the participant must charge a fixed admission
price to participate in the game. According to Bernoulli, most players would prefer to pay an
entry fee nearly comparable to the prize, ensuring that the participant draws even (Bernoulli,
2011).
On the other hand, a competitor would submit an entry fee that they feel is reasonable
given their socioeconomic situation concerning their chances of multiplying their money by
striking on tails and therefore profiting on their expenditure. However, if the bet is too large and
therefore too hazardous, the net benefit of the returns will be reduced since the player is afraid of
losing more than they can potentially lose. On the other hand, a successful person would get less
joy from such a game if they possess more wealth than they could win (Lopes, 1981).
Pascal and Bernoulli both created imaginary game scenarios based on probability. Pascal
uses the likelihood of abruptly concluding that a fair, proportionate prize allocation may be
calculated using game occurrences. On the other hand, Bernoulli uses probability to comprehend
better a gambler's rational choice, such as how, where, and in what conditions they are prepared
REFERENCES:
Grinstead, Charles Miller, and James Laurie Snell. Introduction to probability. American
Devlin, Keith. The Unfinished Game: Pascal, Fermat, and the Seventeenth-
Century Letter that Made the World Modern. Hachette UK, 2008.
Bernoulli, Daniel. "Exposition of a new theory on the measurement of risk." The Kelly
Lopes, Lola L. "Decision making in the short run." Journal of Experimental Psychology: