HIMACHAL PRADESH NATIONAL UNIVERSITY, SHIMLA

POLITICAL SCIENCE-II

FUTURE OF COALITION POLITICS IN INDIA

SUBMITTED BY SUBMITTED TO

PUSHKAR GULIA DR. VED PRAKASH SHARMA

BALLB A ASSISTANT PROFESSOR OF POLITICAL SCIENCE
1020230115 SEMESTER-II HPNLU,
SHIMLA
ACKNOWLEDGMENT

It is not possible to create a project report without the assistance and comfort of others. This
is emphatically not an exception. I'm taking advantage of this opportunity to thank everyone
who helped me throughout this project. Throughout my assignment, I am grateful for their
aspiring guidance, valuable feedback, and friendly advice. I am grateful to them for giving
their candid and informative perspectives on many issues related to the enterprise. I would
also like to express my heartfelt gratitude to Dr. Ved Prakash Sharma, Assistant Professor of
Political Science, for providing me with the brilliant opportunity to complete this incredible
project, which also assisted me in achieving a great deal of exploration and thinking about a
large number of new things.

DECLARATION
I, Shubham, student of BA LLB B enrollment number 1020230115, declare that
—- I understand plagiarism and am aware of the HPNLU’S Policy in this regard.
I say that the work at this moment submitted is my original work. Where other people’s
work has been used (either from a printed source, the Internet, or any other source), this
has been properly acknowledged and referenced by the HPNLU’s requirements.
I have not used work previously produced by another student or any other person to hand in
as my own.
Also, this work has not been used or submitted to any person or institution.

Pushkar Gulia
BA LLB A
1020230115
SEMESTER-II

CONTENT
 1. Introduction

2. Origin of Coalition Politics in India

3. Political Scenario in Coalition Politics

4. The Issue of Decline of Coalition Politics

5. Future

6. Case Studies

7. Conclusion

Introduction :
In India, a coalition government is formed when no political party is able to achieve a clear
majority in the elected legislature, or the house of the people (Lok Sabha or Vidhan Sabha).
This situation arises when different political parties receive a similar number of votes and no
single party can form the government on its own. In such a scenario, a number of political
parties join hands and form an alliance to prove their majority on the floor of the house.

It is important to note that these alliances can be formed before or after the election. Pre-
election alliances are formed when political parties come together before the elections to fight
the elections as a united front. On the other hand, post-election alliances are formed after the
elections when no party has been able to secure a clear majority.

The coalition governments in India reflect the coalitional politics prevalent in the country.
This shift in the parliamentary paradigm can be traced back to the beginning of the coalition
era in Indian politics. In recent times, many state governments in India have been formed by
coalition partners as well. Despite the challenges that come with coalition politics, it has
become an important aspect of the Indian political landscape..

P. Yellaiah writes: “The term coalition politics in the comparative political theory
discursively refers to the phenomenon of inter party grouping of the government and the
opposition in the parliament setting without a clear majority for any one political party”.

Origin of Coalition Politics in India:

 Coalition politics in India is not a new phenomenon. The concept of political uniformity
took a backseat in 1967 after the general "Vidhan Sabha Elections" in some states. This
marked the beginning of coalition politics in the country. In 1977, non-Congress parties
formed a coalition government at the central level, led by Sh. Morarji Desai, marking the first
instance of a non-Congress government in power. However, this government fell very soon in
1979. Ten years later, a similar political scenario was witnessed in the aftermath of the 9th
Lok Sabha Elections in 1989, wherein no single political party was able to form a
government with full majority. Thus, the experiment of coalition politics was undertaken to
form a coalition government. This era from 1989 to 2009 is considered by most political
scholars to be the era of coalition politics in India. During this phase, all the governments
were formed with the help of regional allies and remained hung governments with minority
support.

According to Adnan Farooqui and E. Sridharan, "India has seen seven consecutive elections
(1989-2009) in which no single party won a majority of seats in the lower house, resulting in
situations whose solutions were in all cases minority governments dependent on external
support. In 1991, the Congress formed a single party minority government, but in all other
cases, minority coalitions dependent on external support were formed, these being large,
multiparty coalitions with the participation of several regional parties since 1996."

However, the Congress party surprised everyone when it defeated the BJP-led NDA and
returned to power in the 2004 Lok Sabha Elections, and got re-elected in 2009. Despite this,
the party lost its grip on many state elections in the past decade, such as Bihar, UP, West
Bengal, Tamil Nadu, etc. In recent years, the political scenario in state politics has become
unpredictable. For instance, the Haryana Vidhan Sabha Elections in 2014 and Delhi Vidhan
Sabha Elections in February 2015 had contrasting results. While the BJP emerged victorious
in Haryana, it lost its mandate in Delhi and won only three seats out of 70.

Political Scenario in Coalition Politics:

It is a widely acknowledged fact in the Indian political landscape that the emergence of small
regional parties began after the decline of Congress and the failure of Janta Party in 1979.
This led to the fragmentation of the party system in India, which was further accentuated by
the coming to power of Non-Congress coalition government. As a result, more and more
parties have been formed in India's political landscape, with the largest number being formed
between the years 1989 and 2009.

To give a sense of the scale of this fragmentation, it is worth noting that in the first general
elections held in India in 1952, only about 50 parties contested. However, by the time of the
2009 general elections, the number of parties contesting had grown to a staggering 342. This
trend of increasing fragmentation is likely to continue in the future as more regional parties
emerge and widen their support base.

The fact is given in the table 1:

Table – 1: National and Regional Parties 1989- 2009
Sr. Party 1989 1991 1996 1998 1999 2004 2009
No.
1 Congress 39.5 36.6 28.8 25.8 28.3 26.5 28.6
2 BJP 11.4 20.1 20.3 25.6 23.8 22.2 18.8
3 Left 10.2 9.7 9.1 7.8 7.6 7.9 7.5
4 BSP 2.1 1.8 4.0 4.7 4.2 5.3 6.2
5 Regional Parties 27.1 21.1 26.2 29.3 29.5 29.3 28.4
The table 1 indicates that the vote share of national parties has declined after 1989 and the
vote share of regional parties has increased. Consequently, the scattered mandate has forced
the political parties to unite into an alliance. That is why, Congress formed UPA (United
Progressive Alliance) and BJP formed NDA (National Democratic Alliance). Thus, an era of
coalition politics remained from 1989 to 2009 in India which changed the political scenario
of Indian Politics.

Table – 2: Lok Sabha Election 2014 and Party Performance

Sr. Party Seats Won Seats Share Vote Share

No. % %
1 BJP 282 51.93% 31.0%
2 Congress 44 8.10% 19.31%
3 NDA 336 59.86% 38.10%
4 UPA 59 10.68% 22.03%
5 LEFT, Regional Parties 148 29.46% 39.87%
and Others

In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) emerged victorious by
securing a majority of 282 seats, and with the support of its allies, it won a total of 336 seats
out of the 543 seats contested. In contrast, the Indian National Congress and its allies could
only manage to win 59 seats. This clearly indicates that the mandate was overwhelmingly in
favor of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), with a seat share percentage of 59.86%,
while the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) could only muster a meager 10.68% share. The
vote share percentage was also in favor of the NDA, with 38.10% of the votes, while the UPA
secured only 22.03% of the votes.

It is worth noting that regional parties, including the Left Front, secured a significant share of
the seats and votes. They won 29.46% of the total seats and 39.87% of the total votes, thereby
emerging as a crucial player in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections.

Overall, these statistics highlight the fact that the mandate was decisively in favor of the BJP
and its allies, and no single party could effectively play the role of an opposition in the 16th
Lok Sabha.
The Issue of Decline of Coalition Politics:

In the intricate tapestry of Indian politics, coalition governments have been both a necessity
and a challenge. The roots of coalition politics in India can be traced back to the Indian
National Congress (Congress), which served as the cornerstone of the country's political
landscape post-independence. However, the phenomenon of break-away parties and the
emergence of new political entities have reshaped the dynamics of Indian politics, leading to
a shift from ideology-based affiliations to personality-centric loyalties.

The genesis of many political parties outside the Congress can be attributed to leaders who
felt marginalized within the party hierarchy. When these leaders failed to attain positions of
prominence or influence within the Congress, they opted to break away and form their own
parties. While some defections were driven by ideological differences, many were motivated
by personal ambitions and the desire for greater political clout.

This trend of allegiance to individuals rather than ideologies has had profound implications
for Indian politics. Political workers and supporters often switch loyalties based on the
promise of personal favors or opportunities for advancement. Consequently, the political
landscape in India has witnessed a proliferation of parties with shifting alliances and fluid
coalitions, leading to a lack of coherent leadership direction.

The decline of the Congress party, once the dominant force in Indian politics, has further
accentuated the trend towards a leadership vacuum. The Lok Sabha Elections of 2014 marked
a significant turning point, with the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA)
suffering a resounding defeat, securing only 44 seats. In contrast, the Bharatiya Janata Party
(BJP) emerged victorious, securing a clear mandate with 282 seats and 336 including its
allies.

The BJP's success in the 2014 elections sparked a debate about the future of coalition politics
in India. Adnan Farooqui and E. Sridharan argue that despite the BJP's majority win,
coalition politics remains relevant, emphasizing the importance of pre-electoral coalitions for
victory and coalition governments for effective governance. They contend that the BJP's
future expansions would necessitate coalition alliances, indicating that the era of coalition
politics is far from over.

Contrary to this perspective, Subham Ghosh suggests that the BJP's electoral dominance
signals the potential end of the coalition era in India. Ghosh points to the BJP's strong
performance in various states and its expanding electoral footprint as evidence of a shifting
political landscape. However, it is essential to critically examine these assertions and consider
the broader context of Indian politics.

While the BJP's electoral successes may indicate a shift towards single-party dominance, it is
premature to dismiss the significance of coalition politics in India. The country's diverse
socio-political landscape, characterized by regional disparities and identity-based politics,
necessitates coalition governments to accommodate varied interests and ensure inclusive
governance.

Furthermore, the BJP's own trajectory underscores the enduring relevance of coalition
politics. Despite its majority win in 2014, the BJP has actively pursued alliances with
regional parties to strengthen its electoral prospects in different states. This pragmatic
approach acknowledges the importance of coalition building in India's complex political
milieu.

Moreover, coalition governments have historically played a crucial role in fostering

consensus and stability in Indian politics. By bringing together disparate parties and
ideologies, coalition governments have facilitated policy formulation and implementation,
albeit with occasional challenges.

In conclusion, while the BJP's electoral dominance may suggest a shift away from coalition
politics, the reality is more nuanced. The complexities of Indian politics, coupled with the
diverse aspirations of its citizens, necessitate coalition governments to navigate the intricacies
of governance effectively. As such, the era of coalition politics in India is far from over, with
coalitions likely to continue shaping the country's political landscape for the foreseeable
future.
Future of the Coalition Politics:

Now, it is debatable question whether coalition politics in India is over or moving towards
its end. If we analyse the performance of BJP in the recent months or within one year, it has
shown a contradictory side. Some of the intellectuals and scholars assume the fact that
coalition politics in India is not over, but it has moved towards a new power shifting in
political scenario in recent time. BJP’s identity as a party has emerged with two individuals
namely Narender Modi and Amit Shah. But, in Delhi Vidhan Sabha Elections – 2015 have
given a great setback to BJP.

PM Narender Modi and Amit Shah could not either make any help of BJP in Delhi Vidhan
Sabha Elections - 2015 and BJP could only win three seats. Furthermore, one year’s
achievements of BJP are not so praiseworthy that it could gain popularity or public support in
next general elections and be able to get the same mandate. The political scenario within one
year has changed. The party has not been so much successful to implement its commitments
made before public during election time. The government has not been successful to control
price hike and corruption. Further, it has been completely failure to bring the black money
back to the country. The idea of ‘Make India’ seems to be flopping very soon and vision of
good governance to the people seems unachievable in the recent time very soon or later.
Then, how can we say that the era of coalition politics is over. It would be decided by the next
general Lok Sabha Elections about the future of coalition politics in India.

Coalition politics in India is likely to witness several significant shifts in the coming years
due to evolving political, social, and economic landscapes. Predicting the future trajectory
involves analyzing these changes and their potential implications for coalition dynamics and
governance.

Political Landscape:
India's political landscape is experiencing a gradual transformation marked by the emergence
of new regional parties and the decline of traditional political powerhouses. This trend is
expected to continue, leading to a more fragmented political environment. As a result,
coalition formations may become more complex, with smaller parties playing a crucial role in
government formation.

Additionally, the rise of issue-based politics, driven by socio-economic concerns and identity
politics, could reshape coalition dynamics. Parties may form alliances based on specific
policy agendas rather than ideological alignment, leading to more fluid coalition
configurations.

Social Dynamics:

Social dynamics, including caste, religion, and regional identities, have historically
influenced coalition politics in India. In the future, these factors are likely to remain
significant, with parties leveraging identity-based appeals to consolidate support. However,
changing demographics and socio-economic trends may also alter the calculus of coalition
politics.

Urbanization and youth mobilization are shaping new voter demographics, potentially
diluting the influence of traditional identity-based politics. As urban populations grow and
become more diverse, parties may need to adapt their strategies to appeal to cosmopolitan
voters, impacting coalition formations and governance priorities.

Economic Landscape:

India's economic landscape is undergoing a period of transition, characterized by the rise of a

digital economy, shifting global trade patterns, and the pursuit of sustainable development
goals. These changes are likely to impact coalition politics in several ways.

Economic reforms and infrastructure development projects may serve as focal points for
coalition negotiations, with parties seeking to deliver tangible benefits to their constituencies.
Additionally, the growing emphasis on environmental sustainability and social welfare could
shape coalition agendas, leading to alliances focused on green initiatives and poverty
alleviation programs.

Scenarios of Coalition Formations:

1. Fragmented Coalitions: In this scenario, the political landscape becomes increasingly

fragmented, with multiple regional parties holding sway over different states. Coalition
formations at the center involve intricate negotiations among a diverse array of parties,
leading to unstable governments and frequent realignments.

2. Issue-based Alliances: Parties come together based on specific policy agendas rather than
traditional ideological affiliations. Issue-based alliances focus on tackling pressing challenges
such as unemployment, healthcare, and environmental degradation, leading to dynamic
coalition configurations.

3. National Unity Government: A scenario where major parties set aside their differences to
form a grand coalition aimed at addressing critical national issues. This form of government
prioritizes consensus-building and stability, albeit at the expense of ideological clarity.
Case Studies

Successful Coalition Government: United Progressive Alliance (UPA)

The UPA, led by the Indian National Congress, successfully governed India from 2004 to
2014. Despite being a coalition of diverse parties with varying ideologies, the UPA managed
to maintain stability and implement significant policy reforms. Key lessons from the UPA's
success include:

- Strong Leadership: The UPA government benefited from strong leadership under Prime
Minister Manmohan Singh, who fostered consensus among coalition partners and effectively
managed intra-coalition conflicts.
- Policy Cohesion: Despite ideological differences, the UPA maintained cohesion on key
policy issues such as economic liberalization, social welfare programs, and foreign policy
initiatives.
- Inclusive Governance: The UPA government prioritized inclusive governance by consulting
coalition partners on major policy decisions and accommodating their concerns.

Unsuccessful Coalition Government: United Front (UF)

The United Front coalition, formed in 1996, faced numerous challenges during its tenure,
leading to its eventual collapse. Despite initial optimism, the UF government struggled to
maintain cohesion and implement meaningful reforms. Key lessons from the UF's failure
include:

- Lack of Leadership: The UF lacked strong leadership, with coalition partners often pursuing
divergent agendas and undermining the government's effectiveness.
- Ideological Rifts: The UF comprised parties with conflicting ideologies, making consensus-
building difficult and hindering policy coherence.
- Governance Paralysis: Internal disagreements and external pressures led to governance
paralysis, with the UF government unable to address pressing issues such as economic
reforms and national security.

Best Practices for Coalition Management:

- Clear Agenda Setting: Successful coalitions prioritize setting a clear agenda that
encompasses the common goals and priorities of all coalition partners.
- Effective Communication: Open and transparent communication among coalition partners is
essential for building trust and resolving conflicts.
- Flexibility and Compromise: Coalition governments must demonstrate flexibility and
willingness to compromise on contentious issues to maintain stability and govern effectively.
- Inclusive Decision-making: Ensuring all coalition partners have a voice in decision-making
processes fosters a sense of ownership and commitment to coalition goals.

The future of coalition politics in India is likely to be shaped by a combination of political,

social, and economic factors. As the political landscape evolves, parties will need to adapt
their strategies to navigate the complexities of coalition governance. By drawing lessons
from past experiences and embracing best practices for coalition management, India can
harness the potential of coalition politics to address pressing challenges and promote
inclusive development.
Conclusion:

In India, coalition politics has emerged as a defining feature of the country's democratic
landscape, driven by the necessity of accommodating diverse interests in a pluralistic society.
Over the years, coalition governments have become the norm rather than the exception,
reflecting the complex interplay of political forces at play.

The evolution of coalition politics in India can be traced back to the post-independence era,
marked by the emergence of regional parties and the decline of single-party dominance. The
formation of non-Congress coalition governments in the late 1970s and 1980s laid the
foundation for a new era of multi-party democracy, characterized by fluid alliances and
shifting loyalties.

Despite its challenges, coalition politics has proven to be resilient, with parties forging pre-
election and post-election alliances to secure power and govern effectively. The period from
1989 to 2009 witnessed a succession of coalition governments at the center, reflecting the
growing influence of regional parties and the fragmentation of the political landscape.

The Lok Sabha Elections of 2014 marked a significant milestone in Indian politics, with the
Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) securing a decisive victory and forming a majority government
at the center. This led to speculation about the decline of coalition politics and the emergence
of a new era of single-party dominance.

However, the subsequent years have seen a mixed picture, with the BJP facing electoral
setbacks in some states and the resurgence of regional parties in others. The political
landscape remains dynamic and unpredictable, with coalition formations continuing to play a
crucial role in government formation and governance.

The future of coalition politics in India is likely to be shaped by evolving political, social, and
economic dynamics. Regional aspirations, identity politics, and socio-economic disparities
will continue to influence coalition formations, as parties seek to balance competing interests
and maintain power.

Moreover, the success of coalition governments will depend on effective leadership, clear
communication, and inclusive decision-making. Lessons learned from past experiences, both
successful and unsuccessful, will inform future coalition management strategies and
contribute to stable governance.

In conclusion, while the BJP's electoral dominance may signal a shift in the political
landscape, coalition politics remains an integral part of India's democratic fabric. As the
country navigates the complexities of governance and development, coalition governments
will continue to play a vital role in addressing the diverse needs of its citizens and shaping
the trajectory of Indian politics.