Ecological Economics 58 (2006) 170 – 181

www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolecon

ANALYSIS

A decision support method for environmental impact assessment

using a fuzzy logic approach
André de Siqueira Campos Boclin a,*,1, Renato de Mello b,2,3
a
Instituto Brasileiro do Meio Ambiente e dos Recursos Naturais Renováveis, IBAMA, Brazil
b
Fundação de Apoio à Pesquisa Cientı́fica e Tecnológica do Estado de Santa Catarina, FAPESC, Brazil
Received 8 December 2004; received in revised form 7 June 2005; accepted 7 June 2005
Available online 15 September 2005

Abstract

This paper presents a decision support method for environmental impact assessment, using a fuzzy logic computational
approach. It aims at offering stakeholders a way to operate fuzzy and crisp variables and make inferences from resultant values
of the systemic indicator as well as environmental, cultural, social and economic thematic indicators. The method was tested in
the Environmental Protection Area of Anhatomirim (Santa Catarina state, Brazil) forecasting alternative future scenarios for the
adaptation of a highway route and paving project.
D 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Keywords: Environmental impact assessment; Decision support; Environmental indicators; Fuzzy logic

1. Introduction

This paper presents the results of an ongoing

* Corresponding author. Av. Mauro Ramos 1113, Centro Floria-
nópolis, SC 88020-302, Brazil. Tel.: +55 482123357; fax: +55
482123361.
E-mail addresses: andre.boclin@ibama.gov.br
(A. de Siqueira Campos Boclin), valorambiente@terra.com.br
(R. de Mello).
1
Brazilian Institute of the Environment and Renewable Natural
Resources (The Federal Environmental Agency in Brazil).
2
Rodovia SC 401, KM 1 Parque Tecnológico, Itacorubi, Floria-
nópolis, SC 88030-000, Brazil. Tel.: +55 482151219; fax: +55
483348153.
3
Support Foundation of Scientific and Technological Research in
Santa Catarina.
0921-8009/$ - see front matter D 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2005.06.007
research project involving a decision support method
for environmental impact assessment. The method
developed herein evaluates the expected changes in
the physical, biological, social and economic systems
derived from the implementation of a project or
activity.
The current methods for environmental impact
assessment are insufficient to support systems and
decisions related to real impact conditions. These
methods usually display extensive databases and fra-
gile qualification instruments to support stakeholders’
decisions. Nowadays, the synergetic effects and fuzzy
 A. de Siqueira Campos Boclin, R. de Mello / Ecological Economics 58 (2006) 170–181
indications are treated as bqualitativeQ elements and
when these elements are assessed, this assessment is
carried out in a secondary form as ancillary elements
for the quantitative indicators.
This study intends to contribute to the improve-
ment of methods and techniques for the current
assessment of environmental impact, providing an
instrument that enables the interaction between the
representations (i.e. indicators) and their logic opera-
tions. The method allows for the visualization (deci-
sion dendrograms) of elements of analysis (criteria) as
well as transparency in the definition of the weights
and in the understanding of such criteria. It may also
contribute to the democratization of decisions, as an
instrument that equips non-specialized social agents to
better understand reality, and be able to forecast the
impacts on the environment.
The basis for the method is the analysis of the
environmental indicators, which are joined and com-
bined in logic operations of fuzzy sets. Such indica-
tors are defined and arranged according to a soft
decision tree (dendrogram) structured in a top-down
fashion, initiated from the main question to be
answered. In each knot a rule block defines the out-
puts, or results. The variables of inputs and outputs
Fig. 1. Location of the SC-410 highway and the EPA of Anhatomirim (source: Ambiental Consultoria e Planejamento Ltda, 1997).
171
can be either crisp or fuzzy, being operated by opera-
tors bifQ, bandQ, borQ, and bthenQ.
The method was tested in the forecasting of future
scenarios deriving from alternatives for the adaptation
of a planning and paving project for SC-410 Highway,
which connects BR-101 Highway to the City of Gov-
ernador Celso Ramos, in the State of Santa Catarina,
Brazil. The reason for this choice of object lies in the
fact that the proposed action is inserted in the Envir-
onmental Protection Area of Anhatomirim, a Federal
Conservation Unit of sustainable use, created by a
federal law (Brasil, 1992) and managed by IBAMA,
which has as its main objectives to protect the biologic
diversity, organize the occupation process and assure
the sustainability of natural resources.
The decision, in this case, involves mainly public
administration departments, which are responsible for
the licenses and the management of protection areas,
the municipal administration, and the department of
tourism and roads. Other stakeholders are non-govern-
mental organizations with social and ecological inter-
ests, tourism and recreation investors, landowners and
local population.
The conflicts among stakeholders are basically
related to how to invest and obtain the results from
172 A. de Siqueira Campos Boclin, R. de Mello / Ecological Economics 58 (2006) 170–181
the alternatives in each period. The part of the popula-
tion, which does not see an economic share from the
ecological protection system and tourism, shows pre-
ferences to an alternative regular road with higher
speed and without problems to the occupation and
use of land. The federal administration of the area
states that the regulations are clear and the road must
comply with all federal laws, and this position has the
support of the ecological non-governmental organiza-
tions as well as part of the local population. The state
road department argues that an alternative bparkQ is
expensive, as such department could not afford much
more than a new pavement.
According to Article 15 of Brazilian Law number
9985 from July 18, 2000, which instituted the SNUC –
Sistema Nacional de Unidades de Conservação4 (Bra-
sil, 2000) – an Environmental Protection Area is
generally an extensive area, with a certain degree of
human occupation, endowed with abiotic, biotic, aes-
thetic or cultural attributes, especially important for
life quality and comfort of the human population, and
has as its basic objectives to protect the biologic
diversity, organize the occupation process and assure
the sustainability of natural resources.
The Environmental Protection Area (EPA) of
Anhatomirim encloses approximately 3000 ha of ter-
restrial and marine areas, and has as its main objective
to protect important remaining elements of the Atlan-
tic Forest and a resident population of dolphins (gray-
dolphin) of the Sotalia fluviatilis species. The area
location is shown in Fig. 1.
2. The developed method
The usual multi-criteria methods for decision sup-
port deal basically with discrete values on a common
reference base. The best results are obtained by the
hierarchical approximation process and with stochas-
tic programming, especially the MAUT, AHP, PRO-
METHEE and ELECTRE methods as suggested by
Zuffo (1998). All variables must be represented by a
crisp value (e.g. money) and are usually combined
two by two. The variables need to be independent
and an input variable cannot be part of more than
4
NSCU — National Systems of Conservation Unities.
one combined output. In the real world, most vari-
ables are fuzzy, although the possibilities of repre-
sentation by crisp values are strongly inter-
dependent. This is the main reason why a fuzzy
method to operate the combination of variables was
chosen. To represent the whole situation, one of the
best ways to find how the decision can be detailed is
to divide the main question into branches, where the
leaves represent the indicators that can be measured
or evaluated. This is the top-down decision tree
displayed in Fig. 2.
The method developed herein consists, firstly, of
recognizing the area and the selected alternatives to
the project, by the identification of the main activities
and actions that can impact on the region, ecology,
social activities, and economy within the respective
environmental aspects in each alternative.
The next step is the elaboration of a top-down soft
decision tree as suggested by Janikow (1998), Kothari
and Dong (2001) and Wehenkel and Olaru (2003),
using the environmental indicators and starting from
the search of the most important question to be
answered. The tree leaves are the direct indicators;
the thematic indicators are the branches and the sys-
temic final indicator is the environmental situation of
the project.
The definitions of membership functions using
linguistic variables and the operations of the sets are
carried out according to the fuzzy logic principles in
the light of Troya et al. (1996), Bueno (2003) and
Prabhu and Mendoza (2004). Fig. 2 shows the entire
structure of the soft decision tree for the case study,
including the inputs, the rule blocks and the outputs.
The connecting lines represent the data flow.
The tree must be elaborated by a multi-disciplinary
team and revised by all stakeholders. The composition
of the tree, the relevance of each input variable that
composes the sequence of the output variable and the
membership functions (MBF) of the fuzzy operations
also need to be revised in every step of the study. The
MBF used were three, represented by the linguistic
terms bbadQ, bcriticQ and bgoodQ for all the variables in
the bSQ shape. Thus, each value obtained from the
studied indicators, was co-related to the established
linguistic terms, which the basis varied from zero to
represent the bad state (i.e. bad state pertinence level),
to one to represent the good state (i.e. good state
pertinence level).
 A. de Siqueira Campos Boclin, R. de Mello / Ecological Economics 58 (2006) 170–181 173

Fig. 2. The soft decision tree for the case study.

Following the sequence, the rules (i.e. bifQ, bandQ,
borQ, bthenQ) that operate the relations among the
variables are established, and the models of defuzzy-
fication are defined. The fuzzy production rules store
the information in a Fuzzy Knowledge Base. The
production rules used for the composition of the the-
matic and systemic indicators consist of two main
parts: bifQ (situation) and bthenQ (action). While the
bifQ part of the rule describes the situation for which it
is designed, the bthenQ part describes the action of the
fuzzy system in this situation.
In order to operate the fuzzy sets of the case study,
the conditions established by the rule blocks were
assumed to be of the restriction type with the bandQ
sets combination. The input combinations of all mem-
bership functions must meet the criteria which estab-
lish all the restrictions that need to be considered and
among such restrictions the higher ones are those
which prevail.
This type of combination means that we have an
intersection of two sets, which can be defined and
formulated as the following expressions.
If U is the universe that contains the elements
denominated as x, then the fuzzy set A in U is the
ordered pair:
A ¼ f lA ð xÞ; xg; 8xaU ð1Þ
174 A. de Siqueira Campos Boclin, R. de Mello / Ecological Economics 58 (2006) 170–181
Fig. 3. Example of a scroll bar used to define the influence of
bcontinental waterQ on the output bwaterQ.
where l A (x) is a real function, named as a member-
ship function, defined by the expression l A (x):U Y
[0,1], that associates to each x a U a real number
l A (x), in the interval [0,1]. This real number repre-
sents the membership degree of x in A.
Let A, B and C be fuzzy sets in the universe U, for
8x a U,
Then the membership function l C (x) of the inter-
section C = A \ B is:
lC ð xÞ ¼ lA\B ð xÞ
¼ lA ð xÞT lB ð xÞVminflA ð xÞ;lB ð xÞg; 8xaU
ð2Þ
where T are triangular norms, functions of two defined
entrances in the domains T:[0,1] X [0,1] Y [0,1]. X
denotes the Cartesian product.
The operator T indicates a mapping between two
fuzzy membership functions, each one in the interval
[0,1], and the operation is executed among them point
to point, according to their format. The mapping
function in 8x, y, z and z a [0,1] must follow:
! Coherency in the shapes: xT0 = 0 and xT1 = 1
! Commutativity: xTy = yTx
! Associativity: xT(yTz) = (xTy)Tz
! Monotonicity: x V y and w V z, xTw V yTz
Fig. 4. Rule block of bwaterQ shows the possibilities of combining input variables with possible results of the output variable.
According to Zimmermann (1996), this definition
of the intersection of two fuzzy sets was first sug-
gested by Zadeh (1965).
The system structure identifies the flow of the
fuzzy logic analysis from the input to the output
variables. The fuzzyfication in the input interface
shows discreet values in pertinence levels to the
fuzzy membership functions. The fuzzy analysis
takes place in blocks that contain the rules of the
linguistic control.
The combination of the inputs indicators into
one or more outputs requires a previous definition
of the relevance of each input variable in the com-
position of the output variable, established with the
use of a slider in a qualitative scale as displayed in
Fig. 3.
Each output variable is a result of the rule block
that contains the information of all possible arrange-
ments among input variables described in linguistic
means. The choice of rules which better represent the
desired condition can be done by a bounded sum or by
the maximum value obtained. This study uses the
maximum value method, which represents the union
of sets. The operators and stakeholders can also define
the degree of support (DoS) of each rule, on a scale
from zero to one. Zero means that the rule will never
be fired, and the values between zero and one repre-
sent the relevance of a particular rule in the block. In
the example shown in Fig. 4, all the DoS of the rules
are equal to 1.
The results of the operation in these rule blocks are
also represented by linguistic variables. The defuzzy-
fication in the outputs converts the linguistic variables
in discreet variables.
 A. de Siqueira Campos Boclin, R. de Mello / Ecological Economics 58 (2006) 170–181
Fig. 4 shows an example of the rule block bwaterQ.
The input variables represent conditions, fields, or
other definitions related to the state of the object in
analysis, or aspect. The results–output variables may
be represented in a fuzzy form, or by a crisp value.
The method establishes that the defuzzyfication shall
be used as a form to verify the behavior assumed by
the output variables. Thus, each set of input variables,
operated in a rule block, results in two output vari-
ables. One with fuzzy values which will feed a new
input for the next set, and other defuzzyficated vari-
able with discreet values. These two output variables
will allow a better comprehension by the stakeholders
giving support to them to visualize and interpret each
result. The membership functions to the defuzzyfica-
tion operations were of the bSQ types with the upper
shoulder width of 50%.
The defuzzyfication that converts fuzzy into crisp
values can be done by different methods. In this case,
the method used to obtain the crisp value is the
bcenter of area (CoA)Q.
An example of the graphic representation of a
membership function is shown in Fig. 5.
The obtained values by the CoA defuzzyfication
method range from the minimum of 0.158 to the
maximum of 0.842. In order to change the base to a
percentage, and deal with a common reference, the
new reference values of the outputs are obtained from
the expression:
x ¼ ð y  0:1580Þ=ð0:8420  0:1580Þ:
This thematic and systemic output indicator repre-
sents the combinations and operations of the input
variables, according to the assessments of stake-
holders, specialists, and decision makers. Thus, the
Fig. 5. Graphic representation of membership functions of the bSQ
type with the width of the upper shoulder of 50% (example of
output variable bPhysicalQ — Pre-existing situation).
175
Fig. 6. MBF of bbioticQ Pre-existing situation.
method generates environmental diagnosis of the
influence area and prognostics for each alternative
of the project.
3. Results
Two alternatives to the highway projects and a
third hypothesis of bNo action at allQ were analyzed.
One alternative called bSouth CircuitQ foresees a sce-
nario for determining a priority to assist immediately
the local communities, mitigating the environmental
impacts. Another alternative called bPark-highwayQ
foresees not only the mitigation of the environmental
impacts, but also improvements in the protection of
ecosystems through a Management Plan for the EPA
of Anhatomirim.
3.1. Characterization of the study area
The EPA of Anhatomirim is located in the north of
ð3Þ
Florianópolis metropolitan region, capital of the state
of Santa Catarina, Brazil. Small bays and promon-
tories with beaches and rock coasts bathed by shel-
tered waters and an open sea form its coastline. A
population of dolphins of the Sotalia fluviatilis spe-
cies inhabits its territorial waters, constituting the area
of more austral occurrence of this species (Mori,
1998). The hills of Serra da Armação with its well-
kept remaining areas of Atlantic Rain Forest are a
shelter for various endangered wild animal species.
The forest conservation state, the landscape and the
population of dolphins have taken the Federal Gov-
ernment to create the EPA of Anhatomirim.
The EPA of Anhatomirim has the area of 3000 ha.
A place of rare beauty sees in the tourism a develop-
ment option, after the decay of the economic cycle of
whales hunting and fishery in the past. The EPA is
served by precarious accesses, what constitutes the
176 A. de Siqueira Campos Boclin, R. de Mello / Ecological Economics 58 (2006) 170–181
Fig. 7. MBF of bbioticQ bSouth CircuitQ alternative.
main limiting factor to the development of its econ-
omy and the protection of its ecosystem. Although the
highway works extend beyond the limits of the EPA
of Anhatomirim, our study focuses only on where this
road crosses the Unit of Conservation along an area of
11 km. The analysis of the probable environmental
impacts will be limited to the operation phase of the
road.
3.2. The alternative projects
3.2.1. The south contour
This alternative uses partially the existent SC-410
Highway that surrounds Serra da Armação by the
South, crossing three villages in an extension area of
27.1 km. This is the preferential alternative as a
project, because apart from assisting a larger number
of communities, with more safety for the user and
for the inhabitants of the bordering areas, it facil-
itates a larger development and organization of tour-
ism potentialities. This alternative will be called
bSouth ContourQ.
3.2.2. No action at all
This alternative means that nothing is going to be
carried out, maintaining the road as it is now. In this
situation the maintenance of the traffic conditions
requires constant interventions of soil movement gen-
Fig. 8. MBF of bbioticQ bPark-highwayQ alternative.
Fig. 9. MBF of bbioticQ bNo action at allQ alternative.
erating environmental impacts. As a consequence,
water resources and the road itself are jeopardized
due to erosion problems and inadequate drainage.
On the other hand, precarious access conditions inhi-
bit the sustainable development and the occupation
area.
3.2.3. Park-highway
This is a conceptual alternative that uses part of the
current SC-410 Highway. This is a different treatment
to alternatives of tracing, due to many factors asso-
ciated with environmental concern, from its concep-
tion until its implantation and mainly its operation.
The project seeks to minimize and mitigate the
impacts of the civil constructions and also creates a
compensation mechanism of the occupation control
and use of the accessible areas for the road. One of the
objectives of the Park-highway is the protection of
natural, historical and cultural places. Another objec-
tive is to promote the ecological education of the
population and users, creating conditions for the
social and economic development of the communities.
3.3. Input variables — direct and thematic indicators
The choice of indicators had as its main criterion
the definition of a synthetic set, which is able to
identify the conditions of the environmental quality
Fig. 10. MBF of bphysicalQ Pre-existing situation.
 A. de Siqueira Campos Boclin, R. de Mello / Ecological Economics 58 (2006) 170–181
Table 1
Conditions and possible conditions changes in bbioticQ
Indicator Pre-existing bSouth circuitQ bPark-highwayQ bNo action
situation alternative alternative at allQ
alternative
Biotic 73.58% 41.37% 76.59% 57.80%
and the probable condition changes of these qualities
at the physical, biologic and social economic levels
and legal conformity. These changes are determined
by the probably direct and indirect, relevant, environ-
mental impacts caused by the project and its alterna-
tives in the operation phase of the project.
The definition of the structure and composition of
the thematic indicators are based on the sufficiency
and capacity of representation of the individual indi-
cators in the set. This definition shows which indivi-
dual indicators should be used and their relative
importance.
A list of the used input variables, which are indi-
vidual and thematic conditions indicators, is shown
below following the flow of represented data in the
soft decision tree:
! Connectivity—represents the possibility of a
genetic flow among the populations;
! Conservation—represents the conditions of conser-
vation of the ecosystems;
! Fragmentation—represents the level of continuity
of the environments;
! Aquatic fauna—represents the conditions of the
aquatic fauna;
! Continental fauna—represents the conditions of the
continental fauna;
! Gray-dolphins (Sotalia fluviatilis)—represent the
conditions of this population, who live in the
EPA of Anhatomirim. They are identified in the
model by the denomination bdolphinQ;
Fig. 11. MBF of bphysicalQ bSouth CircuitQ alternative.
177
Fig. 12. MBF of bphysicalQ bPark-highwayQ alternative.
! Forest cover—represents the conditions of the flora
concerning the covering;
! Diversity—represents the conditions of the flora
concerning the diversity;
! Continental water—represents the conditions of
continental water – superficial and subterranean
waters – from the EPA of Anhatomirim;
! Marine water—represents the conditions of the
seawaters in the EPA of Anhatomirim;
! Air—represents the conditions of the air quality in
the EPA of Anhatomirim;
! Soil—represents the conditions of the soil in the
EPA of Anhatomirim;
! Legal conformity—represents the level of legal
conformity in the process of territorial formation
and occupation of spaces in the EPA of Anhato-
mirim. It is identified in the model by the denomi-
nation blegalQ;
! Distribution—represents the conditions in the dis-
tribution of businesses in the private economy;
! Inducement—represents the conditions in the
inducement of new businesses in the private
economy;
! Remuneration—represents the conditions of the
acquisitive power in the remuneration performed
by the private economy;
! Public expenses—represents the conditions of the
public expenses. It is identified in the model by the
denomination bexpenseQ;
Fig. 13. MBF of bphysicalQ bNo action at allQ alternative.
178 A. de Siqueira Campos Boclin, R. de Mello / Ecological Economics 58 (2006) 170–181

Table 2
Conditions and possible conditions changes in bphysicalQ
Variable/ Pre-existing bSouth circuit’ bPark-highwayQ bNo action
Indicator situation alternative alternative at allQ
alternative
Physical 63.64% 35.84% 73.80% 50.00%

! Public income—represents the conditions of the Fig. 15. MBF of bsocial–economicQ bSouth CircuitQ alternative.
public income. It is identified in the model by the
denomination bincomeQ;
In the sequence the output variables are showed,
! Scenic—represents the conditions of the aesthetic,
following the data flow represented in the soft deci-
scenic and landscape conditions in the EPA of
sion tree:
Anhatomirim;
! Culture—represents the conditions of the culture;
! Ecosystems—natural ecosystem conditions — it is
habits; traditions; cultural, artistic, architectonic,
derived from the composition of the obtained
historical and archeological patrimony in the EPA
indexes for the connectivity, conservation and frag-
of Anhatomirim;
mentation conditions;
! Life quality—represents the conditions of comfort
! Fauna—fauna conditions—it is derived from the
and life quality, considering education, health,
composition of the obtained indexes for the aquatic
security, dwelling, transport and leisure in the
and continental faunas conditions and for the con-
EPA of Anhatomirim;
ditions of the dolphins’ population that live in the
! Work—represents the conditions of job offers,
EPA of Anhatomirim;
resulting from the private economy performance
! Flora—flora conditions—it is derived from the
in the EPA of Anhatomirim.
composition of the obtained indexes for the native
forest cover and the native vegetation diversity
3.4. Output variables — thematic and systemic
conditions;
indicators
! Water—hydric resource conditions—it is derived
from the composition of the obtained indexes for
The output variables result from the composition of
the continental, superficial and subterranean waters
the fuzzy values of the input variables, operated
and marine water conditions;
according to the rules bifQ, bandQ, bthenQ and impor-
! Private economy—private economy conditions—it
tance scales in the formation of results.
is derived from the composition of the obtained
The results were defuzzyficated in discreet values
indexes for business distributions, inducement of
and expressed in percentages (through basis change
new businesses and remuneration conditions;
that adjust the reference fields). These results are the
! Public economy—public economy conditions—it
thematic indicators, and the final result that expresses
is derived from the composition of the obtained
the general situation of the environment is a systemic
indexes for expenses and income conditions;
conditions indicator.

Fig. 14. MBF of bsocial–economicQ Pre-existing situation. Fig. 16. MBF of bsocial–economicQ bPark-highwayQ alternative.
 A. de Siqueira Campos Boclin, R. de Mello / Ecological Economics 58 (2006) 170–181
Fig. 17. MBF of bsocial–economicQ bNo action at allQ alternative.
! Economic—economic aspect conditions–it is
derived from the composition of the obtained in-
dexes for private and public economies conditions;
! Social—social aspects conditions – it is derived
from the composition of the obtained indexes
for the scenic, cultural, life quality and work
conditions;
! Biotic—biologic means and natural ecosystem
conditions – it is derived from the composition of
the obtained indexes for the natural ecosystems,
fauna and flora conditions;
! Physical—physical means conditions – it is
derived from the composition of the obtained
indexes for water, air and soil quality conditions;
! Social-economic—social–economic means condi-
tions – it is derived from the composition of the
obtained indexes for the conditions of the means
in relation to the economy aspects and the con-
ditions of the means in relation to the social
aspects;
! Situation—environmental situation conditions – it
is derived from the composition of the obtained
indexes for the conditions of the biologic means
and the natural ecosystems, the physical means and
the social-economic means, as well as the legal
conformity conditions.
Below, the defuzzyfication results of the final the-
matic variables are presented.
Table 3
Conditions and possible conditions changes in bsocial–economicQ
Variable/ Pre-existing bSouth bPark-highwayQ bNo action
Indicator situation circuitQ alternative at allQ
alternative alternative
Social– 42.17% 65.95% 73.80% 46.15%
economic
179
Fig. 18. MBF of bsituationQ Pre-existing situation.
3.4.1. Biotic — biologic means and natural ecosystem
conditions
The scenario of the bSouth CircuitQ alternative
indicates a sensible tendency of quality reduction,
representing the worst alternative for the project, con-
sidering its negative impacts on the biologic means
and natural ecosystems. The scenario of the bPark-
highwayQ alternative indicates the maintenance of
good quality in the preservation of flora. The scenario
of the bNo action at allQ alternative indicates that the
evolution of the region without the implementation of
the project presents a tendency to jeopardize the bio-
logic means quality and natural ecosystems. The
values of the membership functions (MBFs) of each
alternative are shown in Figs. 6, 7, 8 and 9. Table 1
shows the defuzzyficated results.
Being compared to the future projected settings;
the alternative bPark-highwayQ presents the best
choice for the biologic means and natural ecosystems.
3.4.2. Physical — physical means conditions
The scenario of the bSouth CircuitQ alternative
indicates a sensible tendency to quality reduction,
representing the worst alternative for the project con-
sidering its negative impacts on the physical means.
The scenario of the bPark-highwayQ alternative indi-
cates a tendency of quality elevation in the physical
means. The projected scenario for the bNo action at
allQ alternative shows a tendency to jeopardize the
Fig. 19. MBF of bsituationQ bSouth CircuitQ alternative.
180 A. de Siqueira Campos Boclin, R. de Mello / Ecological Economics 58 (2006) 170–181
Fig. 20. MBF of bsituationQ bPark-highwayQ alternative.
quality of this variable. The values of the membership
functions (MBFs) of each alternative are shown in
Figs. 10, 11, 12 and 13. Table 2 shows the defuzzy-
ficated results.
The results show that the alternative bPark-high-
wayQ is the most adequate one, as it improves the
present quality of the physical means.
3.4.3. Social-economic—social-economic means con-
ditions
The scenario of the bsouth contourQ alternative
indicates a sensible tendency to quality improvement
for this variable. The scenario of the bPark-highwayQ
alternative indicates a more emphatic quality elevation
in the social–economic means. The projected scenario
for the bNo action at allQ alternative shows a light
tendency to improve the quality of the social–eco-
nomic means, although it still can be considered critic.
The values of the membership functions (MBFs) of
each alternative are shown in Figs. 14, 15, 16 and 17.
Table 3 shows the defuzzyficated results.
The results show that the alternative bPark-high-
wayQ is the most adequate one, as it improves the
present quality of the social–economic means, when
compared to the No action at allQ alternative.
3.4.4. Situation — environmental situation conditions
The results of the fuzzy operations show that the
environmental situation conditions, in the Pre-existing
Fig. 21. MBF of bsituationQ bNo action at allQ alternative.
Table 4
Conditions and possible conditions changes in bsituationQ
Variable/ Pre-existing bSouth bPark-highwayQ bNo action
Indicator situation circuitQ alternative at allQ
alternative alternative
Situation 0.5000 0.4032 0.6628 0.4737
situation, may be considered critic. The scenario of
the bSouth CircuitQ alternative indicates a sensible
tendency to quality reduction and may be considered
the worst project alternative. The projected scenario
for the bPark-highwayQ alternative indicates a strong
tendency to quality improvement in the environmental
situation conditions. The scenario of the bNo action at
allQ alternative indicates that the evolution of the
region, without the project implementation, presents
a tendency of jeopardy in the environmental situation
quality. The values of the membership functions of
each alternative situation are shown in Figs. 18, 19, 20
and 21. Table 4 shows the final systemic defuzzyfi-
cated results.
When the future projected scenarios are compared,
the bPark-highwayQ alternative is considered as the
most appropriated choice. This can be better under-
stood when the percentage values of the defuzzyficated
results obtained from the scenarios without the projects
(46.15%) is compared to the results of the best alter-
native—bPark-highwayQ alternative (73.80%). A
favorable result to the environment, about 27.65%,
may be accepted.
4. Conclusions
The present study intends to contribute for the
improvement of the current assessment processes of
environmental impacts, presenting a method that
enables the integration of the representations (indica-
tors) and their logical operations. The soft decision
tree that uses a fuzzy logic approach can be easily
understood by non-specialists and it is logically con-
sistent. This method brings democracy and transpar-
ency to the process, operating variables that seemed,
until now, to be un-mixable with regular mathematics.
The results of the application indicate that the
bPark-highwayQ alternative is the one that brings the
best ecological, economic and social answers, being
pointed out as the most appropriated choice.
 A. de Siqueira Campos Boclin, R. de Mello / Ecological Economics 58 (2006) 170–181
The method contributes to support decisions, as an
instrument, which shall qualify the specialist, social
agents and stakeholders to understand more clearly
the reality, and foresee environmental impacts.
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