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Africa Plus Partners

LAHCCL

TRAFFIC AND REVENUE FORECAST STUDIES ON LAGOS

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ABEOKUTA HIGHWAY
Traffic and revenue forecasts based traffic counts
and elasticities
7th February, 2024

Escher Silverman Global Ltd

In Association with
Peter Davidson Consultancy
 Escher Silverman Global in Association with PDC

Table of Contents
Contents
1 Introduction ................................................................................................................................ 1-1
1.1. Scope and Objectives ........................................................................................................... 1-1
1.2. Methodology ........................................................................................................................ 1-2
1.3. Report Structure:.................................................................................................................. 1-2
1.4. Disclaimer ............................................................................................................................. 1-2
2 Survey Analysis ........................................................................................................................... 2-1
2.1. Traffic Counts ....................................................................................................................... 2-1
2.2. Stated preference surveys .................................................................................................... 2-3
2.3. Elasticity Analysis ................................................................................................................. 2-4
3 Traffic and revenue forecasts ..................................................................................................... 3-1
4 Conclusions and Recommendations ........................................................................................... 4-1
4.1. Disclaimer ............................................................................................................................. 4-1
APPENDIX - A. LAGOS - ABEOKUTA survey data spreadsheet............................................................II

Traffic and Revenue Forecast Studies on the Lagos Abeokuta Highway under the HDMI Scheme i|Page
 Escher Silverman Global in Association with PDC

Table of Figures and Tables

No table of figures entries found.

LIST OF TABLES
Table 2-1: Traffic counts Lagos to Abeokuta ....................................................................................... 2-1

Table 2-2: Traffic counts Abeokuta to Lagos ....................................................................................... 2-2

Table 2-3: Stated preference estimated coefficients for Lagos Abeokuta data .................................. 2-4

Table 2-4: Assumed toll diversion change percentages ...................................................................... 2-5

Table 3-1: Abeokuta to Lagos 2023 daily traffic and revenue for each toll plaza by vehicle type ....... 3-2

Table 3-2: Lagos to Abeokuta 2023 daily traffic and revenue for each toll plaza by vehicle type ....... 3-3

List of Abbreviations
APP Africa Plus Partners
ATC Automatic traffic counts
ESG Escher Silverman Global Ltd
FGN Federal Government of Nigeria
GPS Global positioning system hand-held device
GV Goods vehicle
HGV Heavy goods vehicle
HI Highway Inventory which also measures traffic speeds
JTS Journey time survey
LGV Light goods vehicle
MCC Manual classified counts
MGV Medium goods vehicle
PDC Peter Davidson Consultancy Ltd
SP Stated preference a technique to measure travellers VoT and WTP
RSI Roadside Interview survey of drivers’ origin-destination trips
TAG Transport Analysis Guidance
The concession Awarded by FGN to APP to design, build & operate the scheme
The concessionaires APP
The scheme Upgrading the Lagos-Abeokuta highway
The project Traffic & revenue forecasts for the scheme
VDM Variable demand model which models people’s choices between the new toll
highway and the next best alternative and other behavioural choices.
VoT Value of time
WTP Willingness-to-pay
VHr Vehicle hours
VKm Vehicle kilometers

Traffic and Revenue Forecast Studies on the Lagos Abeokuta Highway under the HDMI Scheme ii | P a g e
 Escher Silverman Global in Association with PDC

1 INTRODUCTION
Africa Plus Partners (APP) have won the concession from the Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN) to upgrade
two major highways in Nigeria one between Lagos and Abeokuta. The concessionaires (APP) require certain
consultancy services and have commissioned Escher Silverman Global Ltd (ESG) to provide them. These
upgraded highways are to be tolled with the revenue raised, to be used to help pay for the upgrading engineering
works. This requires forecasts of traffic and revenue for which ESG have commissioned us Peter Davidson
Consultancy Ltd (PDC). These traffic and revenue forecasts entail PDC building a computer model of the highway
system for which surveys are needed. These surveys have been undertaken by ESG to PDC’s specification and
this is the report describing these surveys and giving the basic survey results.
The Lagos-Ota-Abeokuta Highway serves as a critical artery, connecting the bustling metropolis of Lagos with
the historic city of Abeokuta and fostering social and economic exchange within Nigeria. However, this vital route
grapples with persistent traffic congestion, hindering economic activity, extending travel times, and impacting
the overall quality of life for those who rely on it. To address these challenges and inform strategic interventions,
a comprehensive Elasticity Traffic survey was conducted between September and November 2023, focusing
specifically on the Lagos-Ota-Abeokuta Highway.

1.1. Scope and Objectives

This comprehensive survey delved into the dynamic interplay between various factors and traffic volume on the
Lagos-Abeokuta Highway. Key areas of investigation encompassed:
• Price: Assessing the influence of fluctuations in fuel costs, tolls (if applicable), and public transportation
fares on traffic volume on the highway.
• Service: Evaluating the impact of changes in travel time, reliability, and availability of alternative routes
on driver behavior and route choices.
• Infrastructure: Examining the influence of road conditions, maintenance activities, and accident
occurrences on traffic flow patterns.
• Land Use: Analyzing how development patterns along the highway, encompassing population density,
commercial activity, and industrial zones, contribute to traffic generation.
• Socioeconomic Factors: Investigating the role of income levels, employment opportunities, and travel
behavior preferences in shaping traffic patterns.
By quantifying the elasticity of traffic demand with respect to these factors, the survey aimed to achieve the
following critical objectives:
• Pinpoint bottlenecks: Identify the factors that exert the most significant influence on traffic congestion
on the Lagos-Abeokuta Highway.
• Predict future scenarios: Develop robust models to anticipate future traffic volumes under different
scenarios, such as infrastructure improvements or economic fluctuations.
• Evaluate policy interventions: Assess the effectiveness of potential interventions, such as congestion
pricing, improved public transportation options, or infrastructure upgrades, in alleviating traffic
congestion.
• Inform investment decisions: Provide data-driven insights to guide resource allocation and prioritize
investments for optimal traffic management on the highway.

Traffic and Revenue Forecast Studies on the Lagos Abeokuta Highway under the HDMI Scheme 1-1 | P a g e
 Escher Silverman Global in Association with PDC

1.2. Methodology
The survey employed a rigorous and multifaceted approach, incorporating:
• Data collection: Gathering data from diverse sources, including travel surveys, advanced highway
monitoring systems, government records, and comprehensive socioeconomic datasets.
• Statistical analysis: Applying advanced econometric models to quantify the relationships between traffic
volume and influencing factors with precision.
• Spatial analysis: Utilizing Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to visualize traffic patterns and analyze
the influence of spatial factors with clarity.
• Stakeholder engagement: Conducting interviews and focus group discussions with key stakeholders,
including transport operators, policymakers, and local communities, to ensure a holistic understanding
of the situation.

1.3. Report Structure:

This report is meticulously structured to provide a comprehensive understanding of the findings:
• Chapter 2: Presents a detailed overview of the methodology employed, including data sources, analytical
techniques, and limitations specific to the Lagos-Abeokuta Highway context.
• Chapter 3: Unveils the key findings of the survey, meticulously analyzing the elasticity of traffic demand
with respect to each influencing factor and highlighting specific insights relevant to the Lagos-Abeokuta
Highway.
• Chapter 4: Discusses the implications of these findings for various stakeholders and summarizes
projected traffic volume and revenue data for the Lagos-Abeokuta Highway.

This technical note sets out the results of the traffic and revenue forecasts for the proposed upgrade of the
Lagos-Abeokuta tolled highway based on the phase 2 survey counts and overall elasticities which it uses to
provide interim forecasts for the roads when they are tolled. The overall elasticities were obtained from a
preliminary analysis of the phase 2 stated preference survey.
These forecasts make assumptions which may not turn out to be true which would make the forecasts wrong.

1.4. Disclaimer
This project involves forecasting travel, all our forecasts will contain an element of uncertainty. This uncertainty
depends upon the basis upon which the forecasts are made, the forecasting methodology, our allotted budget
and timescale and the events which happen between making the forecasts and the outturn travel volumes. For
the first two, we use the most appropriate tools and techniques in accordance with generally accepted
professional standards and practices for the region, which may lead to forecasts which turn out to be wrong.
The allotted budget and timescale, constrains the methodology which can be used. The final forecast involves a
continuation of past trends which we no way of knowing will turn out as forecast. The outturn may therefore be
quite different to that forecast. The contents of this report are given as-is and the reader should verify the
veracity of its contents for themselves. No warrantee is given as to the veracity of the contents of this report.
This disclaimer should go on all reports, deliverables and material derived from them that contain our forecasts,
our company name or the name of any of our staff.

Traffic and Revenue Forecast Studies on the Lagos Abeokuta Highway under the HDMI Scheme 1-2 | P a g e
 Escher Silverman Global in Association with PDC

2 SURVEY ANALYSIS
2.1. Traffic Counts
The Phase 2 survey is documented in the survey report. The manual classified counts and the automatic traffic
counter data were combined to produce a set of traffic volumes for the average 24-hour day (see tables 2.1 to
2.2).
Direction - South Mo to r c
Thr e e Sma l l Pi ck up s/J
Mi ni bus/sm
La r ge bus/ Two A x l e
MGV (3 - La r ge HGV
Whe e l e Ca r s/Ta eeps & Lux ur y ve hi cl e s To ta l
West to North East y cl e a l l bus 4 a x l e s) (5+ A x l e s)
Start End r xi SU V B use s (Va n/LGV)
LAGOS to ABEOKUTA
RSI062 (12hrs) 10/07/2023 2,436 1,034 1,175 902 3,318 210 612 96 155 9,938
RSI062 (ADT) 901 383 1,534 1,178 4,332 270 787 123 199 9,708
RSI062 (7days) 10/07/2023 13/07/2023 6,310 2,679 10,739 8,244 30,326 1,890 5,507 864 1,395 67,953

RSI072 (12hours) 10/08/2023 846 1,205 1,163 469 931 6 142 150 239 5,151
RSI072 (ADT) 408 697 1,492 602 1,194 9 221 233 372 5,228
RSI072 (7days) 10/07/2023 13/07/2023 2,855 4,879 10,442 4,211 8,359 65 1,546 1,634 2,603 36,594

RSI312 (12hours) 10/09/2023 1,101 51 1,616 470 460 6 196 184 101 4,185
RSI312 (ADT) 1,020 47 1,730 503 492 8 247 232 127 4,405
RSI312 (7days) 10/07/2023 13/07/2023 7,138 331 12,108 3,521 3,447 53 1,728 1,622 890 30,837

RSI082 (12hours) 10/10/2023 2,354 134 4,490 825 324 11 293 138 79 8,648
RSI082 (ADT) 1,883 53 5,765 1,059 416 15 400 188 108 9,887
RSI082 (7days) 10/07/2023 13/07/2023 13,182 371 40,355 7,415 2,912 105 2,797 1,317 754 69,209

RSI052 (12hours) 10/07/2023 2,596 194 5,437 4,967 5,956 992 446 126 80 20,794
RSI052 (ADT) 3,802 284 5,434 4,964 5,953 3,271 1,471 415 264 25,858
RSI052 (7days) 10/07/2023 13/07/2023 26,614 1,989 38,038 34,750 41,669 22,896 10,294 2,908 1,846 181,005

RSI322 (12hours) 10/08/2023 1,811 287 4,385 5,979 4,868 335 858 1,225 886 20,634
RSI322 (ADT) 1,625 257 6,484 8,841 7,198 411 1,054 1,504 1,088 28,461
RSI322 (7days) 10/07/2023 13/07/2023 11,372 1,802 45,386 61,885 50,386 2,879 7,375 10,529 7,615 199,229

Table 2-1: Traffic counts Lagos to Abeokuta

Traffic and Revenue Forecast Studies on the Lagos Abeokuta Highway under the HDMI Scheme 2-1 | P a g e
 Escher Silverman Global in Association with PDC

Direction - North Mo to r cy Thr e e

Sma l l
Pi ck up s/Je Mi ni bus/
La r ge Two A x l e
MGV (3 - 4 La r ge HGV
Ca r s/Ta x bus/Lux ur y ve hi cl e s To ta l
East South West Start End
cl e Whe e l e r
i
e p s & SU V sma l l bus
B use s (Va n/LGV)
a x l e s) (5+ A x l e s)

ABEOKUTA to LAGOS
RSI061 (12hrs) 10/07/2023 3,742 1,364 1,430 1,815 4,123 193 428 90 94 13,279
RSI061 (ADT) 3,466 1,263 2,569 3,260 7,406 557 1,235 260 271 20,286
RSI061 (7days) 10/07/2023 13/07/2023 24,259 8,843 17,981 22,822 51,842 3,897 8,642 1,817 1,898 142,002

RSI071 (12hours) 10/08/2023 877 1,441 973 608 909 2 124 66 126 5,126
RSI071 (ADT) 812 1,335 1,532 957 1,431 5 301 160 306 6,838
RSI071 (7days) 10/07/2023 13/07/2023 5,262 8,646 10,724 6,701 10,019 34 2,105 1,120 2,139 46,750

RSI311 (12hours) 10/09/2023 2,098 139 1,774 744 627 14 320 190 95 6,001
RSI311 (ADT) 1,943 129 1,899 796 671 18 403 239 120 6,217
RSI311 (7days) 10/07/2023 13/07/2023 13,601 901 13,292 5,574 4,698 123 2,821 1,675 837 43,522

RSI081 (12hours) 10/10/2023 1,147 25 2,942 983 335 23 350 148 101 6,054
RSI081 (ADT) 1,062 23 5,027 1,680 572 31 467 198 135 9,195
RSI081 (7days) 10/07/2023 13/07/2023 7,436 162 35,191 11,758 4,007 215 3,271 1,383 944 64,368

RSI051 (12hours) 10/07/2023 3,458 15 7,604 4,793 5,205 709 716 87 104 22,691
RSI051 (ADT) 3,927 17 8,921 5,623 6,107 1,597 1,613 196 234 28,234
RSI051 (7days) 10/07/2023 13/07/2023 27,487 119 62,448 39,363 42,746 11,178 11,288 1,372 1,640 197,640

RSI321 (12hours) 10/08/2023 778 42 5,785 6,484 4,562 144 783 517 415 19,510
RSI321 (ADT) 789 43 5,870 6,579 4,629 146 795 525 421 19,797
RSI321 (7days) 10/07/2023 13/07/2023 5,526 298 41,091 46,056 32,404 1,023 5,562 3,672 2,948 138,580
Table 2-2: Traffic counts Abeokuta to Lagos

Traffic and Revenue Forecast Studies on the Lagos Abeokuta Highway under the HDMI Scheme 2-2 | P a g e
 Escher Silverman Global in Association with PDC

2.2. Stated preference surveys

The stated preference (SP) survey for Lagos - Abeokuta were processed to prepare them for analysis and for use
in forecasting for both proposed new tolled highways. In the survey the games were presented to respondents
as a set of alternatives where each alternative had a set of attributes including travel time, vehicle operating
cost, toll and level of security. For the alternatives, the respondent’s had to choose whether to take the current
road or an alternative new tolled highway and their choices were recorded as their set of decisions. The games
used an orthogonal fractional factorial design for the attributes which were organised in such a way so that they
could be analysed to produce statistically-independent coefficients.
Certain expectations can be inferred from travel behaviour for example the more expensive an alternative is,
the less likely that it will be chosen. These expectations need to be reflected in the model coefficients which
come from the estimation process so cost would be expected to have a negative sign to its coefficient for
example. The sign of the coefficient is therefore part of the test for statistical significance with an expected
(negative) sign indicating that travellers don’t want more of it (such as to pay more for parking or bus fare).
The coefficient estimation process used discrete choice maximum-likelihood logit model estimation throughout
which is the most rigorous methodology for estimating SP coefficients. It provides goodness-of-fit statistics to
ensure statistical rigour and provides an academically sound scientific evidence-base foundation It is a well-
documented and well-understood statistical process which finds the model coefficients which give the maximum
likelihood of reproducing stated decisions. It’s maximum likelihood logit model estimation goodness-of-fit
statistics shows how ‘good’ a coefficient is and how ‘good’ the overall model is.
As well as the coefficient, the estimation also estimates its ‘t’ statistic. The higher the ‘t’ statistic, the more highly
significant (and better) the coefficient, with values above 2 being statistically significant at the 95% level.
Coefficients also have an expected sign where a negative sign indicates that travellers don’t like more of the
variable and a positive sign indicating that travellers like more of it. The overall model fit statistics include the
Null and Model log likelihood which respectively represent the amount of variation in the data and the amount
of variation left after fitting the coefficients so that the greater the difference the better the model. The number
of coefficients also plays a part, so the Rho Bar Square statistic shows how good the whole estimations is
statistically. The higher the rho bar squared the more statistically significant the model is. For revealed
preference data such as this, rho bar squared statistics of 0.05 to 0.2 (sometimes quoted in percentage terms ie
5% to 20%) are normally considered to provide good models depending upon the sample size.
The attribute levels and the decisions were input into PDC’s maximum likelihood logit model estimation software
to estimate the coefficients of choice. The resulting coefficients are given in table 2.5. both coefficients have the
expected negative sign. The ‘t’ statistics are much greater that 2 which shows that they are highly significant.
The difference between the null and model log-likelihood shows that the model has explained some of the
variation in the data (it is a log scale so smaller differences matter) and there is a good rho bar squared statistic
showing a good overall model fit. The variables are intuitively the ones which one would expect, with the correct
sign, high statistical significance, good overall model fit and no counter-intuitive features. The ratio of the time
and cost coefficients is a measure of driver’s value of time and this was found to be 7.4 NGN per minute. This is
similar to other values of time found by us in the region. This means that drivers perceive 100 NGN to be
equivalent to 13.5 minutes of travel time or that drivers perceive 10 minutes of travel time to be worth NGN 74.
Overall, these show that the coefficients are a statistically significant explainer of travel.

Traffic and Revenue Forecast Studies on the Lagos Abeokuta Highway under the HDMI Scheme 2-3 | P a g e
 Escher Silverman Global in Association with PDC

Coefficients relative to time

All combined
Time (hr) -0.379
t 7
Cost (NGN k) -0.449
t 21

Obs 231
Null LL -681
Model LL -299
RhoBarSq 56%
Table 2-3: Stated preference estimated coefficients for Lagos Abeokuta data

2.3. Elasticity Analysis

The SP coefficients were applied to a logit equation which had two alternatives: the current Lagos Abeokuta
road and the new Lagos - Abeokuta highway. For this, we have assumed that the current road between Lagos
and Abeokuta is 130km, has an average speed of 44 kph which gives an end-to-end travel time of 177 minutes.
When it is upgraded to be the new highway this is assumed to have an average speed of 110kph and take 71
minutes end-to-end. These assumptions can be varied. The
logit equation shows that with the above value-of-time, the implied elasticity is -0.79 and that furthermore, this
time saving of 106 minutes is equivalent to NGN 780.
When faced with taking the new tolled highway, drivers would be faced with avoiding it because they were
reluctant to pay the toll of taking it because it provided a nicer road to travel on. Drivers would weigh-up these
two opposing effects and make a decision based on the relative improvement in travel time and the reluctance
to pay money for it. This weighing-up is encapsulated in the logit equation using drivers value of time and their
implied elasticity.
Drivers’ value of time and implied elasticity were assumed to be those measured in the survey and analysed
above. They were used to calculate the percentage of drivers who would avoid the new tolled highway
depending on the level of toll and relative travel time. This is called their ‘percentage change’ which is the
percentage of vehicles which would be attracted to take the route (in which case it would be greater than 100%)
or avoid it (in which case it would be less than 100%) as shown in the table 2.4 below. The value of time, elasticity,
logit equation and diversion rates shown as ‘change %’ in table 2.4 was applied to the Lagos-Abeokuta daily
traffic counts and their respective toll levels, to predict the traffic which would use the new tolled highway in
2023. This was used with the respective toll levels to predict the 2023 daily revenue as shown in chapter 4 below.

Traffic and Revenue Forecast Studies on the Lagos Abeokuta Highway under the HDMI Scheme 2-4 | P a g e
 Escher Silverman Global in Association with PDC

Current Current New New Assumed

time time highway toll
min traffic min Toll NGN change %
177 100 71 0 147
177 100 71 780 100
177 100 71 100 141
177 100 71 200 135
177 100 71 300 129
177 100 71 400 123
177 100 71 500 117
177 100 71 600 111
177 100 71 700 105
177 100 71 800 99
177 100 71 900 93
177 100 71 1000 87
177 100 71 1100 81
177 100 71 1200 75
177 100 71 1300 69
177 100 71 1400 63
177 100 71 1600 51
177 100 71 1700 45
177 100 71 1800 39
177 100 71 2000 27
177 100 71 2200 15
177 100 71 2300 9
177 100 71 2600 7
177 100 71 2800 5
177 100 71 3300 4
177 100 71 3900 3
Table 2-4: Assumed toll diversion change percentages

Traffic and Revenue Forecast Studies on the Lagos Abeokuta Highway under the HDMI Scheme 2-5 | P a g e
 Escher Silverman Global in Association with PDC

3 TRAFFIC AND REVENUE FORECASTS

These traffic and revenue forecasts are based on a set of assumptions which could turn out to be quite wrong
and so could the forecasts which follow from them. The assumptions used the survey data’s value of time,
elasticity and logit equation as described in chapter 2.
The assumption is also made that the upgraded highways will be built with sufficient capacity to accommodate
all the forecast traffic. The 2023 daily traffic and revenue for Lagos - Abeokuta is shown in tables 3.1 and 3.2 by
toll plaza and vehicle type. The traffic volumes are in vehicles per day and the revenue is in units of millions of
Naira per day.
The daily revenue can be annualised assuming an annualisation factor of 215 which is the UK average weekday
annualisation factor used in the UK for cost-benefit analysis. It should be replaced by one derived from local data
although at the moment there isn’t the available data locally (or even in Nigeria) to do so. The traffic can be
forecast on the basis of an assumed growth in gross domestic product (GDP) for three scenarios: a central
forecast assuming 5% GDP growth per annum and low and high growth forecasts of 3% and 7% respectively.
As can be seen from tables 3.1 to 3.2 below, Lagos Abeokuta, the forecast daily traffic is 51,806 vehicles per day
northbound and 64,445 southbound at the toll booths with the peak flows of 28,423 and 32,291 northbound
and southbound respectively at Ile Zik toll booth respectively. This traffic gave a daily revenue of 15,627,000
NGN northbound and 19,724,000 NGN from southbound traffic.

Traffic and Revenue Forecast Studies on the Lagos Abeokuta Highway under the HDMI Scheme 3-1 | P a g e
 Escher Silverman Global in Association with PDC

Abeokuta to Lagos Pi ck up s/ Mi ni bus/ La r ge Two A x l e La r ge

Sma l l MGV (3 - To ta l
Je e p s & sma l l bus/Lux ur y ve hi cl e s HGV (5+
Ca r s/Ta x i 4 a x l e s) to l l e d ve h
SU V bus B use s (Va n/LGV) A x l e s)

Current traffic veh/day

Ile Zik (RSI051) 8,921 5,623 6,107 1,597 1,613 196 234 24,291
Old Lagos Ogun Toll Gate (RSI061) 2,569 3,260 7,406 557 1,235 260 271 15,557
After Ilaro Junction (RSI071) 1,532 957 1,431 5 301 160 306 4,692
Obada Oko (RSI081) 5,027 1,680 572 31 467 198 135 8,110
TOTAL 18,049 11,521 15,516 2,189 3,615 813 946 52,649

Toll NGN
Ile Zik (RSI051) 100 300 100 400 900 1100 1300
Old Lagos Ogun Toll Gate (RSI061) 300 600 300 800 1800 2200 2600
After Ilaro Junction (RSI071) 400 800 400 1000 2300 2800 3300
Obada Oko (RSI081) 200 500 200 600 1400 1700 2000

Change %
Ile Zik (RSI051) 141 129 141 123 93 81 69
Old Lagos Ogun Toll Gate (RSI061) 129 111 129 93 39 15 7
After Ilaro Junction (RSI071) 123 93 123 87 9 5 4
Obada Oko (RSI081) 135 117 135 111 63 45 27

New traffic
Ile Zik (RSI051) 12607 7268 8630 1967 1500 159 161 32291
Old Lagos Ogun Toll Gate (RSI061) 3320 3623 9572 518 478 38 19 17567
After Ilaro Junction (RSI071) 1888 891 1763 4 26 8 12 4591
Obada Oko (RSI081) 6801 1968 774 34 294 88 36 9995
TOTAL 24615 13749 20739 2524 2297 293 228 64445

Revenue NGN '000,000

Ile Zik (RSI051) 1.261 2.180 0.863 0.787 1.350 0.174 0.210 6.825
Old Lagos Ogun Toll Gate (RSI061) 0.996 2.174 2.872 0.414 0.860 0.083 0.049 7.448
After Ilaro Junction (RSI071) 0.755 0.712 0.705 0.004 0.059 0.022 0.040 2.299
Obada Oko (RSI081) 1.360 0.984 0.155 0.020 0.411 0.150 0.072 3.153
TOTAL 4.372 6.051 4.595 1.226 2.680 0.430 0.371 19.724
Table 3-1: Abeokuta to Lagos 2023 daily traffic and revenue for each toll plaza by vehicle type

Traffic and Revenue Forecast Studies on the Lagos Abeokuta Highway under the HDMI Scheme 3-2 | P a g e
 Escher Silverman Global in Association with PDC

Lagos to Abeokuta Sma l l

Pi ck up s/J
Mi ni bus/
La r ge Two A x l e
MGV (3 -
La r ge
To ta l
eeps & bus/Lux ur y ve hi cl e s HGV (5+
Ca r s/Ta x i sma l l bus 4 a x l e s) to l l e d ve h
SU V B use s (Va n/LGV) A x l e s)

Current traffic veh/day

Ile Zik (RSI052) 5,434 4,964 5,953 3,271 1,471 415 264 21,772
Old Lagos Ogun Toll Gate (RSI062) 1,534 1,178 4,332 270 787 123 199 8,423
After Ilaro Junction (RSI072) 1,492 602 1,194 9 221 233 372 4,123
Obada Oko (RSI082) 5,765 1,059 416 15 400 188 108 7,951
TOTAL 14,225 7,803 11,895 3,565 2,878 960 943 42,269

Toll NGN
Ile Zik (RSI052) 100 300 100 400 900 1100 1300
Old Lagos Ogun Toll Gate (RSI062) 300 600 300 800 1800 2200 2600
After Ilaro Junction (RSI072) 400 800 400 1000 2300 2800 3300
Obada Oko (RSI082) 200 500 200 600 1400 1700 2000

Change %
Ile Zik (RSI052) 141 129 141 123 93 81 69
Old Lagos Ogun Toll Gate (RSI062) 129 111 129 93 39 15 7
After Ilaro Junction (RSI072) 123 93 123 87 9 5 4
Obada Oko (RSI082) 135 117 135 111 63 45 27

New traffic
Ile Zik (RSI052) 7,679 6,416 8,412 4,030 1,368 336 182 28,423
Old Lagos Ogun Toll Gate (RSI062) 1,983 1,309 5,599 251 304 18 14 9,478
After Ilaro Junction (RSI072) 1,838 560 1,471 8 19 12 15 3,922
Obada Oko (RSI082) 7,799 1,241 563 17 251 84 29 9,983
TOTAL 19,298 9,525 16,045 4,306 1,942 450 239 51,806

Revenue NGN '000,000/ day

Ile Zik (RSI052) 0.768 1.925 0.841 1.612 1.231 0.370 0.236 6.983
Old Lagos Ogun Toll Gate (RSI062) 0.595 0.785 1.680 0.201 0.548 0.039 0.036 3.884
After Ilaro Junction (RSI072) 0.735 0.448 0.588 0.008 0.043 0.033 0.049 1.904
Obada Oko (RSI082) 1.560 0.621 0.113 0.010 0.352 0.143 0.057 2.855
TOTAL 3.658 3.778 3.222 1.831 2.174 0.585 0.379 15.627
Table 3-2: Lagos to Abeokuta 2023 daily traffic and revenue for each toll plaza by vehicle type

Traffic and Revenue Forecast Studies on the Lagos Abeokuta Highway under the HDMI Scheme 3-3 | P a g e
 Escher Silverman Global in Association with PDC

4 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

For Lagos Abeokuta, the forecast daily traffic is 51,806 vehicles per day northbound and 64,445 southbound at
the toll booths with the peak flows of 28,423 and 32,291 northbound and southbound respectively at Ile Zik toll
booth respectively. This traffic gave a daily revenue of 15,627,000 NGN northbound and 19,724,000 NGN from
southbound traffic.
These forecasts make assumptions which may not turn out to be true which would make the forecasts wrong.

4.1. Disclaimer
This project involves forecasting travel, all our forecasts will contain an element of uncertainty. This uncertainty
depends upon the basis upon which the forecasts are made, the forecasting methodology, our allotted budget
and timescale and the events which happen between making the forecasts and the outturn travel volumes. For
the first two, we use the most appropriate tools and techniques in accordance with generally accepted
professional standards and practices for the region, which may lead to forecasts which turn out to be wrong.
The allotted budget and timescale, constrains the methodology which can be used. The final forecast involves a
continuation of past trends which we no way of knowing will turn out as forecast. The outturn may therefore be
quite different to that forecast. The contents of this report are given as-is and the reader should verify the
veracity of its contents for themselves. No warrantee is given as to the veracity of the contents of this report.
This disclaimer should go on all reports, deliverables and material derived from them that contain our forecasts,
our company name or the name of any of our staff.

Traffic and Revenue Forecast Studies on the Lagos Abeokuta Highway under the HDMI Scheme 4-1 | P a g e
Escher Silverman Global in Association with PDC

APPENDIX - A. LAGOS - ABEOKUTA SURVEY DATA SPREADSHEET

Traffic and Revenue Forecast Studies on the Lagos Abeokuta Highway under the HDMI Scheme II | P a g e