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A Sure Win Strategy For Football Betting
A Sure Win Strategy For Football Betting
Copyright 2009 Stanley Ong & Chris Kwek. All Rights Reserved.
101footballblueprint.com Unauthorised duplication or distribution is strictly prohibited.
A Sure Win Strategy For Football Betting
CONTENT
Page No.
Introduction 3
1) What is Arbitrage 3
9) Strategies 14
10) Pitfalls 17
13) Conclusions 24
Copyright 2009 Stanley Ong & Chris Kwek. All Rights Reserved.
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A Sure Win Strategy For Football Betting
Disclaimer
Every attempt has been made to verify the information provided in this ebook.
Every effort has been made to ensure the content of the ebook is as complete
and accurate as possible. The authors shall not be responsible for any errors,
inaccuracies or omissions.
Legal Notice
This ebook is only for customers who have purchased it. Unauthorised
duplication or distribution is strictly prohibited.
Copyright 2009 Stanley Ong & Chris Kwek. All Rights Reserved.
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A Sure Win Strategy For Football Betting
Introduction
Some punters describe this type of betting as 'sure win' investment because it
guarantees a return. One can even calculate the exact profit even before the
soccer ball is even kicked.
In footballing term, such type of betting is called arbitrage (or arb) and the
punters are called arbitrage traders (or arbers)
Arbitrage is also referred to as risk-free bets, no-risk bets and sure-bets. In the
US, it is known as scalping.
1) What Is Arbitrage
2. In order for an arb bet to be placed, the punter needs one bookmaker to
offer particularly high odds on outcome 1 (for example, the Win) and a
separate bookmaker to offer particularly high odds on outcome 2 (the loss)
where there are only two outcomes available.
By placing a bet on each outcome at the best available odds, with correct
staking, a profit is guaranteed whatever the outcome.
Bookmaker A offers 2.20 for under 2.5 goals & 1.80 for over 2.5 goals
Bookmaker B offers 1.80 for under 2.5 goals & 2.20 for over 2.5 goals
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A Sure Win Strategy For Football Betting
Since the outcome of the game will be one win and one loss, the punter
will lose $100 and win $120, guaranteeing a profit of $20.
3. Sports are being played almost every day of the year around the world
in hundreds of different leagues and tournaments. Odds are offered by
hundreds of bookmakers of different countries. The opportunities for arb
are huge.
Generally, odds of bookmakers in the same country will be very close, for
example, the odds offered by the bookmakers in UK will be rather similar,
so there wouldn't be many arb loopholes. But arb opportunities will be
greater when compared with odds offered by bookmakers in Europe.
4. Arb trading can be applied to all kinds of sports – soccer, tennis, golf,
basketball, snooker, cricket, boxing, baseball, hockey, ice hockey.
Some punters feel that these non-sporting events present more lucrative
arb opportunities as bookmakers often have different opinions as more
guess work are involved compared to sports.
2. Online gaming has become the largest growth industry generating billions
of dollars worldwide every year. Today there are hundreds of online
bookmakers competing against each other. All of them want to offer a
wide range of sporting events in order to reach out to as many customers
as possible.
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A Sure Win Strategy For Football Betting
Bookmakers set their odds based on their pricing criteria. However, not
every odd setter has access to all relevant information in every sporting
event. For example, a bookmaker in USA may not be very familiar with
the lower league game in UK and may set odds out of the market range.
3. A bookmaker may adjust his odds to balance his books. This may
inadvertently create an arb loophole.
For example :
1. UK Format
Fraction 2/1 - the top figure 2 is the winning (profit) and the bottom
figure 1 is the amount to be betted (investment) to
achieve the profit of 2.
2 divided by one = 2
Add one to 2 and the decimal figure = 3.
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A Sure Win Strategy For Football Betting
2. European Format
3. USA Format
1. Make out a checklist of events that you wish to investigate for arbs. The
events must have a limited number of possible outcomes.
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A Sure Win Strategy For Football Betting
If the odds is more than 20% higher than the market average, it is very
likely an error.
For any suspicious arb, there is a great risk of the bookmaker concerned
subsequently cancelling the bet, claiming 'palpable error' in their “get
out' clause. (Go to Point 8 on Risks & Remedies for more details).
4. For the more experienced arbers, the opportunities are bountiful. There
are numerous 1% to 2% arbs every betting day.
5. Every once in a while, a juicy 7% to 15% arb may appear. The punters
just need to be able to spot it.
7. Locating arbs is a very time consuming process. There are paid arb alert
services and arb software which will do the tedious work to highlight the
arb opportunities.
Even though juicy arbs are very rewarding, the thousands of 1% to 2% arbs
will produce profit more consistently.
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A Sure Win Strategy For Football Betting
1. For arb trading, the punter can even calculate the exact profit in advance.
For example, if he wants to make an investment return of $1000 on the
following match, the calculation will be as under :
To invest to return $1000, divide the targetted return amount by each set
of odds to get the respective stake amount :
2. The higher the amount of investment return, the larger will be the stake
amount. Of course, the greater will be the profit.
3. The stake amount can also be in the form of percentage. The calculation
is divide 1 by each set of odds, then add them together as under :
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A Sure Win Strategy For Football Betting
Such type of betting has two outcomes, the Win or the Loss.
This type of betting has three outcomes, Home Win, Draw, Away win.
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A Sure Win Strategy For Football Betting
2. According to the rules of the bookmakers, some may stipulate that the
account holder bets his deposit and any bonus first before the money can
be withdrawn.
Place a bet with the bonus giving bookmaker (let's call bookmaker A) and
then hedge an arb bet with another bookmaker (Bookmaker B) on the
opposite outcome. In this way, use the free bonuses from the various
bookmakers and simply play them against each other.
5. By only using the bonus money to arb, the following can happen at the
bonus giving bookmaker (Bookmaker A) :
The bets will win enough to meet all the conditions like 'roll over'
before withdrawal of the money.
The bets lost. However, this means the arb bets at Bookmaker B
have won which literally means the bonus money at Bookmaker A
has been transferred to Bookmaker B, and the money can be
withdrawn anytime.
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A Sure Win Strategy For Football Betting
a) Risk
One bookmaker may rule that the bet is still active while the other
bookmaker may stipulate that it is voided. If this is the case, the arb
bet is at risk as the side which is voided is unhedged.
b) Remedy
Such risk can be minimised if the arbs are traded using bookmakers
who have similar rules.
2. Bookmakers' Errors
a) Risk
Most bookmakers have a 'get out' clause in the terms and conditions
that they will use to cover themselves against 'genuine mistakes'.
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A Sure Win Strategy For Football Betting
b) Remedy
As a rule of thumb, odds below 1.85 indicates the favourite while odds
above 2.25 refers to the underdog. Odds in between the range of 1.85
to 2.25 mean no side is the favourite.
Odds which are 20% or more above the market average are very
highly 'palpable errors' and the bets are very likely to be cancelled.
a) Risk
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A Sure Win Strategy For Football Betting
b) Remedy
The punter should familiarise himself with the websites of the various
bookmakers so that he can place his bet in the fastest time (within
1-2 minutes).
a) Risk
b) Remedy
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A Sure Win Strategy For Football Betting
For arb trading, every minute counts as the odds are constantly
moving. A focused mind is absolutely essential. If you are bothered
with some problems at home or at work, refrain from arbing. When
necessary, take a break. Return when your mind is refreshed.
5) Lack Of Knowledge
a) Risk
b) Remedy
One has to learn to acquire knowledge. The punter can begin the
learning curve by :
9) Strategies
In principle, arb bets are 'risk-free'. Every arb bet is guaranteed to produce
a profit. But in reality, things can never be that simple. It is still essential
for the punters to learn and know the strategies of the trade before he can
be confident that his arb trading is safely 'risk-free'.
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A Sure Win Strategy For Football Betting
1. Go for low percentage arbs and aim for volume of bets instead of placing
big amount on just a few arbs. Spread your fund around many arbs. This
is to minimise the risk of bookmakers claiming a 'palpable error' especially
on a sizeable bet.
A punter once put a very big arb bet on Chelsea. The arb profit was
around 3% which made it a normal arb. Chelsea won but three hours
later, the bookmaker cancelled the bet claiming it was a 'palpable error'.
The punter's original stake was returned but he lost a fair bit of money
on the other side of his arb bet. Of course, this particular bookmaker has
since lost a lot of goodwill among its customers.
2. Make sure that the results of the arbs are known within 2 to 3 days. This
ensures the fluidity of the cash flow.
3. Maximise the use of your free bets. A punter once found $200 free bets
in an account five months after he has stopped arb trading.
4. Arbs can be very profitable in the total scores market. This involves
taking advantage of differences in the handicaps offered. This method
is known as middling.
This is considered a break-even arb because the punter will indeed break-
even. However, if the final score is 2 goals, he will win both bets.
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A Sure Win Strategy For Football Betting
Most bookmakers tend to concentrate on the elite leagues and may have
less expertise on the lower leagues. Price differences are likely to occur,
and therefore the arb opportunities.
So, it can be very profitable just to be one step ahead of the bookmakers
in the soccer scene.
A bet of $369.15 looks more glaring than just $369. If the bookmakers
suspect you are a arber, they may restrict your bet stake.
8. Once you spot a particular bookmaker is way out of line with the market
range, be the first to secure the bet. The price will definitely not last very
long.
9. If you have been imposed with stake restrictions by the bookmakers, use
the names of family members and friends to set up the accounts.
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A Sure Win Strategy For Football Betting
11. If your first stake amount has been refused, do try again after a few
minutes. There are many instances when the same stake amount has
been accepted upon subsequent tries.
12. In the event of an arb betting dispute, get advice from the Independent
Betting Arbitration Service (www.ibas.co.uk)
10) Pitfalls
There are companies which, for a fee of course, offer arb alert services
that find arbs for the subscribers with details of the league, profit,
percentage and amount to stake. Some also offer free trials.
However, some punters complained that a lot of the arbs from such arb
alert services are with small bookmakers which accept only small stakes.
Some do not accept single bets and the arb bet has to be abandoned.
Alternatively, there are softwares available which will fish out the arb
opportunities.
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A Sure Win Strategy For Football Betting
Since the stakes of the arbitrage traders are likely to be larger than the
normal wagers, this problem may occur quite often.
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A Sure Win Strategy For Football Betting
6. Some bookmakers make it very easy to deposit money but not so easy
when it comes to withdrawal. The punter can end up depositing more
and more money into an account and encounter problems to move his
funds around.
7. Some bookmakers limit stake to small amount, for example $20 per
punter. This is a great problem when a $200 arb bet is needed to be
placed.
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A Sure Win Strategy For Football Betting
10. It can be very frustrating that after hurriedly opening an account and
depositing in money with a particular bookmaker, the odds targetted
have shorten which make the arb not profitable anymore.
11. Most arb traders would have encountered this scenario, that is, the
second before you confirm the arb, the odds change.
Even though there are times the punter is unable to recover all his
transaction fees or exchange rate losses, the free deposit bonuses offered
by the bookmakers should more than compensate.
● www.sportsbookreview.com
● www.bookmakersreview.com
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A Sure Win Strategy For Football Betting
Always maintain around 30% cash buffer in your E-Wallet to cater for
top-ups in your trading. This means only spread around 70% of your
betting fund among the bookmakers.
Besides spotting the arbs, one key factor is speed in executing the
trade.
Once the arb trader is more confident, start actual trading with small
bets.
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A Sure Win Strategy For Football Betting
Initially the learning curve will be tough and steep. Time is the best
teacher. As experience is accumulated, so will be your results.
Does the arb trader wait till there is an arb before depositing money
into that particular bookmaker's account?
If he does so, there is a risk that by the time he has put in the money,
much time has been spent and the arb price he has targetted may be
long gone.
But if he starts putting his fund with the various bookmakers, he ties up
his cash fluidity and there may be a case of an arb with a bookmaker
and he has insufficient money to top up and make the arb bet.
This is really a 'chicken or egg first' dilemma, especially for new arbers.
The best is to get prepared and organised as under :
Always be on the look out for new good bookmakers with attractive
sign up bonuses. Roll over and arb your free money out entirely.
Copyright 2009 Stanley Ong & Chris Kwek. All Rights Reserved.
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A Sure Win Strategy For Football Betting
● passwords
● user names
● account balances
● rules (especially in the event of abandoned games)
● www.bet365.com
● www.betfred.com
● www.betfair.com
● www.boylesports.com
● www.bgbet.com
● www.betuk.com
● www.betdirect.com
● www.888sport.com
● www.betdaq.com
● www.betsson.com
● www.betchronicle.com
● www.bet1128.com
● www.10bet.com
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A Sure Win Strategy For Football Betting
● www.betterbet.com
● www.bodog.com
● www.betinternet.com
● www.bookmaker.com
● www.coraleurobet.com
● www.centre.com
● www.canbet.com
● www.expekt.com
● www.extrabet.com
● www.eurobet.com
● www.globet.com
● www.iasbet.com
● www.interwetten.com
● www.intertops.com
● www.jaxx.com
● www.ladbrokes.com
● www.lassetersports.com
● www.paddypower.com
● www.partybets.com
● www.pinnacle.com
● www.sportingbet.com
● www.skybet.com
● www.stanjames.com
● www.totesport.com
● www.unibet.com
● www.VCBet.com
● www.williamhill.com
● www.winunited.com
Arbitrage Software/Services
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A Sure Win Strategy For Football Betting
13) Conclusions
2. Do not expect quick windfall with arbing, unless you have very deep
betting budget. Arbitrage is a slow but steady way to accumulate
your profit.
4. In view of all the risks and pitfalls highlighted above, a arbitrage trader
has to be very dedicated to achieve consistent income.
Copyright 2009 Stanley Ong & Chris Kwek. All Rights Reserved.
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