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Argus Research Co. - Above-Trend Capital Markets Revenues and Loss Provision Reversal Maintain EPS Uptrend in 2Q - 14 - Jul - 2021
Argus Research Co. - Above-Trend Capital Markets Revenues and Loss Provision Reversal Maintain EPS Uptrend in 2Q - 14 - Jul - 2021
Bank of America is one of the largest financial companies in the world. The company is primarily a U.S. Argus Recommendations
retail and commercial bank, with a network of more than 4,000 branches across much of the country. The
2005 acquisition of MBNA made Bank of America the nation's largest credit-card lender. As such, trends in
consumer interest rates, employment, income growth and borrowing patterns represent a significant risk Twelve Month Rating SELL HOLD BUY
to the company's earnings. The 2008 acquisition of Countrywide made BofA the country's largest
mortgage company as well. BofA became a top-tier securities firm and retail broker with the acquisition of Five Year Rating SELL HOLD BUY
Merrill Lynch.
Under Market Over
Sector Rating Weight Weight Weight
Analyst's Notes
Argus assigns a 12-month BUY, HOLD, or SELL rating to each
Analysis by Stephen Biggar, July 14, 2021 stock under coverage.
ARGUS RATING: BUY • BUY-rated stocks are expected to outperform the market (the
benchmark S&P 500 Index) on a risk-adjusted basis over the
next year.
• Above-trend capital markets revenues and loss provision reversal maintain EPS uptrend in 2Q
• HOLD-rated stocks are expected to perform in line with the
• On July 15, the company reported 2Q21 earnings of $1.03 per share, up from $0.37 a year earlier market.
and above the $0.77 consensus. Net revenues were down 4%. • SELL-rated stocks are expected to underperform the market
on a risk-adjusted basis.
• Results benefited from a $1.6 billion loan loss provision reversal, in recognition of overly conservative
The distribution of ratings across Argus' entire company
loss provisions at the height of the pandemic. universe is: 72% Buy, 28% Hold.
• Capital markets revenues remain in a strong uptrend, and we expect will continue to outweigh
pressure on the lending business due to low interest rates. We are raising our 2021 EPS estimate
given the improved credit quality outlook. Key Statistics
Key Statistics pricing data reflects previous trading day's closing
• We believe that BAC shares, trading at 12-times our revised 2021 EPS estimate, remain attractively price. Other applicable data are trailing 12-months unless
valued. Our target price of $44 assumes a multiple of 14-times our 2021 EPS estimate. otherwise specified
Market Overview
INVESTMENT THESIS Price $39.86
We are maintaining our BUY rating on Bank of America Corp. (NYSE: BAC) and Target Price $44.00
target price of $44 following the company's 2Q results. The quarter included net interest 52 Week Price Range $22.95 to $43.49
margin contraction (on lower interest rates), but also a loan loss provision reversal amid a Shares Outstanding 8.57 Billion
better credit quality outlook and still above-trend capital markets revenues. Lower loan Dividend $0.72
balances (down 12% year over year in 2Q) remain a headwind, but we expect loan growth Sector Overview
to improve in the second half of the year as government stimulus measures roll off and Sector Financial
economic re-opening continues. Sector Rating OVER WEIGHT
Management continues to focus on what it terms 'responsible growth.' We believe this Total % of S&P 500 Market Cap. 11.00%
may be seen in the company's ability to expand its loan portfolio without taking on too Financial Strength
much credit risk, and to maintain balanced growth across segments so that more volatile Financial Strength Rating MEDIUM-HIGH
businesses, such as trading and investment banking, do not account for an outsized portion Debt/Capital Ratio 66.2%
of profits. Return on Equity 9.5%
We believe that the current BAC share price undervalues the franchise. We are raising Net Margin 24.1%
Payout Ratio 0.26
Market Data Pricing reflects previous trading week's closing price. Current Ratio --
200-Day Moving Average Target Price: $44.00 52 Week High: $42.10 52 Week Low: $37.79 Closed at $40.04 on 7/9 Revenue $91.04 Billion
Price After-Tax Income $21.93 Billion
($)
Valuation
40
Current FY P/E 13.07
Prior FY P/E 21.32
30
Price/Sales 3.75
20 Price/Book 1.37
Book Value/Share $29.07
Market Capitalization $341.57 Billion
Rating BUY
HOLD
SELL Forecasted Growth
EPS 1 Year EPS Growth Forecast
($) 63.10%
5 Year EPS Growth Forecast
9.50%
Quarterly 0.70 0.74 0.75 0.74 0.40 0.38 0.51 0.59 0.86 1.03 0.64 0.69 0.71 0.77 0.74 0.80
2.94 1.87 3.05 ( Estimate) 3.08 ( Estimate)
1 Year Dividend Growth Forecast
Annual
8.33%
Revenue
($ in Bil.) Risk
Beta 1.24
Quarterly 23.2 23.1 22.8 22.3 22.8 22.3 20.3 20.1 22.8 21.5 21.7 22.2 22.7 23.5 22.7 23.1 Institutional Ownership 71.21%
Annual 91.4 85.5 88.1 ( Estimate) 92.0 ( Estimate)
FY ends Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Dec 31 2019 2020 2021 2022
Analyst's Notes...Continued
our 2021 EPS estimate given a better credit quality outlook. Our In Consumer Banking, 2Q pretax income was up sharply to
target price of $44 assumes a multiple of 14-times our 2021 EPS $4.0 billion from only $93 million, driven mainly by a reversal to
estimate. the provision for credit losses of $697 million, versus a provision of
RECENT DEVELOPMENTS $3.0 billion a year earlier. Consumer investment assets rose 41% to
$346 billion, reflecting client inflows and market appreciation.
BAC shares are up 68% over the past year, versus a 38% Aside from better credit quality experience, low rates are expected
increase for the broad market. to weigh on results in this segment in 2021.
On July 15, the company reported 2Q21 earnings of $1.03 per In Global Wealth and Investment Management, pretax income
share, up from $0.37 a year earlier and above the $0.77 consensus. rose 59% to $1.3 billion. Revenues increased 14%, reflecting
Net revenues were down 4% to $21.5 billion, as reduced net higher AUM fees. Operating expenses were up 10%, and the
interest income from a narrower net interest margin and lower segment pretax margin rose to 26% from 19%. Client balances
trading revenues were partly offset by greater investment banking rose 25% to $3.1 trillion, aided by market appreciation and
and investment brokerage revenues. inflows. We expect BAC's focus on this segment to lead to stronger,
Net charge-offs were 0.27% of average loans, down from less volatile earnings going forward, with continued improvement
0.45% a year earlier. The company had a negative $1.6 billion loss in the pretax margin.
provision, versus a provision of $5.1 billion a year earlier, In Global Banking, pretax income more than tripled to $3.3
reflecting a recapture of overly conservative loss provisions at the billion from $996 million. Revenue was flat at $5.1 billion, with
height of the pandemic. results benefiting from an $831 million loan loss reversal, versus a
Noninterest expenses were $15.1 billion, up 12% from the prior provision of $1.9 billion.
year, and pretax income rose sharply to $8.0 billion from $3.8 In Global Markets, pretax income declined 52%, to $1.2
billion. billion, as lower FICC revenues offset higher equities revenues, and
EARNINGS & GROWTH ANALYSIS operating expenses increased 29%.
Bank of America has four operating segments: Consumer For 2021, we look for 3% growth in revenues, as flat loan
Banking, Global Wealth and Investment Management, Global balances and net interest margin contraction is offset by continued
Banking, and Global Markets. First-quarter results by segment healthy capital markets revenue. We expect loss provisions to
follow below. decline sharply as the macro environment improves. We also expect
Analyst's Notes...Continued
low single-digit growth in operating expenses, leading to a 71% housing market. Its total loan portfolio is about $1 trillion. With
rebound in EPS. regard to expenses, BofA spent heavily on legacy asset servicing
Based mostly on a better credit quality outlook and lower loss following the mortgage crisis, though these costs have fallen
provision expectations, we are raising our 2021 EPS estimate to steadily.
$3.05 from $2.76, and our 2022 forecast to $3.08 from $3.00. COMPANY DESCRIPTION
FINANCIAL STRENGTH & DIVIDEND Bank of America is one of the largest financial companies in the
Our financial strength rating on BAC is Medium-High. The world. The company is primarily a U.S. retail and commercial
company has been building capital in recent years through asset bank, with a network of more than 4,000 branches across much of
sales and intentional run-off, and through the reduction of legacy the country. The 2005 acquisition of MBNA made Bank of
exposures in its investment banking business. America the nation's largest credit-card lender. As such, trends in
Based on the 2021 Federal Reserve CCAR results, the company consumer interest rates, employment, income growth and
said it would be subject to a preliminary 2.5% stress capital buffer borrowing patterns represent a significant risk to the company's
(SCB), unchanged from the current level. In April 2021, BAC earnings. The 2008 acquisition of Countrywide made BofA the
announced a plan to repurchase up to $25 billion of common stock country's largest mortgage company as well. BofA became a
over time, and following CCAR results said it planned to increase top-tier securities firm and retail broker with the acquisition of
its common stock dividend by 17% to $0.21 beginning in 3Q21. Merrill Lynch.
Our dividend estimates are $0.78 for 2021 and $0.88 for 2022. VALUATION
The company's Tier 1 ratio under the Basel III Advanced
Approach (fully phased-in) was 13.0% as of June 30, 2021. BAC shares have traded between $23 and $43 over the past
year, and are currently near the upper end of that range. Earnings
MANAGEMENT & RISKS in 2021 are expected to benefit from sharply lower credit costs
Bank of America is led by Chairman and CEO Brian Moynihan, while capital markets businesses are expected to remain strong. We
who was elected to both posts amid calls to separate the positions. note that earnings quality for the franchise had been improving
Paul Donofrio is the CFO. prior to the pandemic, and believe that recent investments will lead
The company owns about $450 billion of U.S. consumer loans, to stronger underlying earnings power once the coronavirus impact
and is thus broadly exposed to the health of the U.S. economy and passes. Shareholder returns also improved meaningfully following
Value
P/E
Debt/Capital
BAC vs.
Market
BAC vs.
Sector
More Value More Growth
Analyst's Notes...Continued
2021 CCAR results.
With earnings in recovery from a poor 2020, we believe that
BAC shares, trading at about 12-times our revised 2021 EPS
estimate, remain attractively valued. Our target price of $44
assumes a multiple of 14-times our 2021 EPS estimate.
On July 14 at midday, BUY-rated BAC traded at $37.91, down
$1.95.
About Argus
Argus Research, founded by Economist Harold Dorsey in 1934, And finally, Argus’ Valuation Analysis model integrates a
has built a top-down, fundamental system that is used by Argus historical ratio matrix, discounted cash flow modeling, and peer
analysts. This six-point system includes Industry Analysis, Growth comparison.
Analysis, Financial Strength Analysis, Management Assessment, THE ARGUS RESEARCH RATING SYSTEM
Risk Analysis and Valuation Analysis. Argus uses three ratings for stocks: BUY, HOLD, and SELL.
Utilizing forecasts from Argus’ Economist, the Industry Analysis Stocks are rated relative to a benchmark, the S&P 500.
identifies industries expected to perform well over the next • A BUY-rated stock is expected to outperform the S&P 500 on
one-to-two years. a risk-adjusted basis over a 12-month period. To make this
The Growth Analysis generates proprietary estimates for determination, Argus Analysts set target prices, use beta as the
companies under coverage. measure of risk, and compare expected risk-adjusted stock
In the Financial Strength Analysis, analysts study ratios to returns to the S&P 500 forecasts set by the Argus Market
understand profitability, liquidity and capital structure. Strategist.
During the Management Assessment, analysts meet with and • A HOLD-rated stock is expected to perform in line with the
familiarize themselves with the processes of corporate management S&P 500.
teams. • A SELL-rated stock is expected to underperform the S&P 500.
Quantitative trends and qualitative threats are assessed under
the Risk Analysis.
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