Honors Research Proposal: Social Correlates of War DeCampa

Honors Research Proposal: Social Correlates of War

Richard R. N. DeCampa

HNRS 400: Research Seminar

MSSU

Author Notes

Honors Research Mentor: Dr. Nicholas Nicoletti, MSSU

Special Thanks to:

Dr. Mikh Gunderman, MSSU

Honors Research Proposal: Social Correlates of War DeCampa 2

Abstract

This work seeks to analyze and expand upon what exactly causes a conflict (MID) to turn

into a war. The theory being applied would contend that social values within societies involved

in these conflicts would affect war initiation. It will use an abundance of social variables for this

analysis. It will also use economic and political variables as known factors for comparison. The

analysis will do this using a dyadic logistic binomial statistical regression to determine if these

social variables are correlates of war initiation in a controlled statistical model. This

methodology follows after the works of Fearon, Singer, and Tanter (Fearon 1995; Singer 1999;

Tanter 1969). The presentation for this proposal is available at https://youtu.be/AzYusUUcsg8.

Honors Research Proposal: Social Correlates of War DeCampa 3

Introduction

Scholars have identified numerous variables that are related to war initiation such as

bargaining breakdowns and informational problems (Fearon 1995; Wagner 2000; Shultz 2001),

regime type (Barash & Webel 2018; Bueno de Mesquita 2003), territorial disputes (Kocs 1995;

Tir &Vasquez 2017), ethnic heterogeneity (Huntington 1996), free trade (Johnson & Koyama

2015), the electorate (Bueno de Mesquita 2003), and power asymmetry (Fearon 1995; Powell

2006; Signorino 1999). The purpose of this statistical study is to analyze whether ingrained

social factors, especially those that have been deeply ingrained within a society, may be

correlatives of war initiation.

As defined by Singer, “Militarized Interstate Disputes (MIDS) are united historical cases

of conflict in which the threat, display or use of military force short of war by one state is

explicitly directed towards the government, official representatives, official forces, property, or

territory of another state. Disputes are composed of incidents that range in intensity from threats

to use force to actual combat short of war.” (Singer 1999). This project will involve the

operationalization of various variables that denote the social factors of individuality, religiosity,

and xenophobia. These will be compared to the MIDs and Correlates of War data to see if a war

started or not in each instance (Palmer, D'Orazio, Kenwick, and Lane 2015). Many known

correlates of war will be used as variables for comparison and control.

This work seeks to either show that social values may be possible correlations of war.

Religiosity and xenophobia are test of a nations tolerance of other societies and theorizes that

intolerance may lead nations to war. Individuality test the value a nation places upon personal

choice and in theory would lead to less war due to the fragmentation of societal views this
Honors Research Proposal: Social Correlates of War DeCampa 4

represents. In specific this work seeks to answer the question: Do social values such as

xenophobia, individuality, and religiosity influence whether conflicts between nation-states turn

into inter-state war?

Literature Review

In order to discuss the literature on war, we must first discuss types of war. There are

inter-state, intra-state, extra-state, and non-state wars (Singer 1999). Interstate wars are those

wars fought between or among nation states. Intrastate wars are those fought within the

boundaries of a nation whether insurgency or civil war. Extra-state wars are wars fought for

imperialism or colonialism. Non-state conflicts are those conflict between non-state actors and a

nation state or other group of non-state actors. This project will focus only on inter-state conflicts

and wars.

The literature available on theories of war is enormous and beyond the scope of this

project. Since this thesis will be using an empirical statistical methodology on social values, the

writing within this work will focus mostly on sources that reflect the nature of this project. This

project falls within the social constructivist viewpoint and much will be cited from sources in

that area as well as statistical analysis.

The statistical analysis of war was developed after World War I by Lewis Fry and there

have been many attempts since then to quantify the correlates of war (Levy 1989). There are

some very detailed formulas that consider indexes of demographic and economic behaviors in

order to form predictive algorithms, but these have, at best, been minimally successful

(Signorino 1999). In 1999, David Singer started the Correlates of War project which has become,

since then, a truly massive data set on war that is publicly available, and this work will be using
Honors Research Proposal: Social Correlates of War DeCampa 5

data from that project (Singer 1999). Many theories and hypothesis have been tested using these

data sets. One example would be a theory tested by Singer that was based on the premise that the

growing number of international organizations would reduce the likelihood of war, though much

to Singer’s surprise there was no correlation (Singer 1999). Russett an O’Neal argue against

Singer’s findings showing that IGOs are one of the variables in their data that correlate to peace.

(Russett and O’Neal 2001)

Statistical analysis has also led to macroscopic views of war that place the act of warfare

as part of a historical, calculatable, cycle. Richardson found a cycle of rough 25 years in his data

and attributed this cycle due to generational memory (Richardson 1960). Two other theorists

found a longer cycle of 80 to 120 years and hypothesized that this was caused by the elites

espousing peace in times of war while espousing change and the achievement of ideals in times

of peace (Denton and Phillips 1968). Singer’s Correlates of War project contest this, finding no

major recognizable pattern (Singer 1999).

Many theories use philosophical underpinnings to validate their base assumptions that are

used within their theories (Clausewitz 1968; Hobbes 1651; Locke 1690; Kant 1795). Realist,

Neo-Liberals, and Constructivist have long debated among each other as to the causes of war. All

of these theories on war take the human nature argument and apply it in an aggregate form,

assigning nation states rationality and self-interest (Barash & Webel 2018; Baylis, Owens, &

Smith 2017; Fearon 1995; Ettinger 2013; Hugh, Turner, & Kennedy 1974).

James Fearon expands upon rationalist theory adding dimensions of information and

bargaining (Fearon 1995). Fearon add the base assumptions that nation-states often have
Honors Research Proposal: Social Correlates of War DeCampa 6

incentives to compete and war, which is one way to compete, is more costly than other ways

(Fearon 1995). Fearon states that the cost in blood and treasure offset any rewards gained from

war and that nations are better off settling without such cost (Fearon 1995). Therefore, states are

better off obtaining a given settlement without a costly contest. Decisions to go to war are based

on the information available, the perceived costs, and the interests of the states involved (Fearon

1995). This control of information or lack of information is what leads to bluffing, threats,

conflict, and war. Fearon uses statistical analysis to add weight to his theories (Fearon 1995).

Wagner adds a dimension of information asymmetry to this base and states that war is just

another tool to bargain with (Wagner 2000).

Many other theorists point to war as being part of human nature and an instinctive part of

the human condition. Voltaire claimed war was a truly natural thing and needed to enforce

change in societies (Brailsford 1968). Some theorist assign a power transfer theory of war and

that power vacuums or accumulating too much power inevitably causes conflict, denoting this

concept of power as a natural force akin to gravity or electromagnetism. (Gilpin 1983). Some

think that war initiation may even be influenced by gender norms of the societies involved and

inborn sexual traits (Sjoberg 2018). These social theories have often been applied by

constructivist into their theoretical models.

Max Weber also talked about conflict and may be seen as one of the forebears of

constructivism, though he never directly used the term war. He established a conflict theory that

linked nation states with the use of violence (Weber 1978). According to Weber, nation states

often monopolize the legitimate use of force within their territory and accord themselves to be
Honors Research Proposal: Social Correlates of War DeCampa 7

the sole proprietors of international power which is thereafter used to control the populous and

influence other nation-states (Weber 1978). Segal and Clever discuss the effect of war upon

societies and how conflicts with the nation-states monopolization can lead to asymmetrical

warfare (Segal & Clever 2013).

While technically not constructivist, economic theories of war are similar in that they

deal with war on terms of the international level. The most commonly held belief among

economic theories of war is that the distribution of resources, including land, and disputes over

such are the main reason for war (Johnson & Koyama 2015). Some theorists think that rapid

change intensifies competition for these resources and therefore increases the likelihood of war

(Newman 1991). Many constructivists borrow ideas from economic theories.

Constructivism was first discussed in international relations by Nicholas Onuf where he

discusses hegemony, hierarchy, and heteronomy as different structures of domination in world

affairs (Onuf 1989). War, seen in constructivist point of view, is usually from a perspective that it

is a nation’s leadership that initiates war while maintaining an ideological paradigm to help

ensure public support (Wendt 1999)

. The public is indoctrinated by religion, politics, nationalism, and education to accept

war in many of these theories and war is therefore socially constructed (Montagu 1978). Some

theorist also state that war is caused by certain regime types and the political ideologies of those

in power and that certain regime types are tied to various ideologies (Barash & Webel 2018).

Michael Stohl determined, through statistical analysis, that the political ideology does affect war
Honors Research Proposal: Social Correlates of War DeCampa 8

initiation (Stohl 1971). He also linked this factor into information availability and elite rhetoric

(Stohl 1976).

Alexander Wendt theorized that the identity and interest of states are also socially

constructed, and that construction is part of an on-going process that often involves clashes

between these always changing identities and interest (Wendt 1999). Some constructivist theorist

state that the primary actors in war initiation are the people who act in the name of the nation

state as well as those groups that influence them. This could be the leadership or special interest

groups. The influence of the arms manufacturers is often cited as one these special interest

groups that have interests in starting wars (Roland 2009). This military-industrial complex incites

wars to make profit and to ensure their reason for existing (Roland 2009). It could also be the

influence of the elites and ruling class of a society that spur a nation into war. When combined

with the military industrial complex, as a means of making profit and power stasis for the elites,

industry, and government, the term ‘iron triangle’ is often used (Higgs 2006). It is amid these

constructivist ideas of social groupings and national identities combined with social constructs

that my theory takes shape.

Theoretical Framework and Hypothesis

The theory from this work is largely put forth that there are social factors that are causal

factors of war and that they can be operationalized so as to be better predictive indicators of

when or where a war may happen. This is best exemplified by the work of Senese and Vasquez in

their book, The Steps to War: An Empirical Study (Senese & Vasquez 2008). Senese and Vasquez

make a predictive algorithm based on the theory that territorial disputes, alliances, rivalry, and
Honors Research Proposal: Social Correlates of War DeCampa 9

arms races increase the likelihood of war (Senese & Vasquez 2008). They also used the same

base conflict data that this work proposes to use, the Correlates of War datasets (Singer 1999).

This work theorizes that anything that causes a society to become more of a group mind

and less tolerant of other nations, such as nationalism or xenophobia, will increase the likelihood

of war initiation. Xenophobia is the fear or dislike that a culture has for people of other

nationalities and ethnicities. Individuality is the amount of value a society places upon individual

choice and actions. Religiosity is the strength and uniformity of a societies religious beliefs. It

also conversely theorizes that the more people are informed and are able to act independently, the

less likely war initiation will be. This socialization of group thinking and independence is the

basis of the social factors chosen. Many proxy variables will be used to exemplify these social

factors.

I theorize that collective thinking behavior such as religiosity or xenophobia will increase

the likelihood of war due to an intolerance to the social values of other nation-states. I also

theorize that individuality will show a more fragmented society that will be less likely to go to

war. A fragmented society would lack the cohesiveness that religious or xenophobic nations have

and would always have parts of the populous resisting war.

Using these definitions and these variables, this research has many hypotheses. The same

hypothesis formula would apply to each social factor. In general, it will be as shown below, for

each social factor:

 Ha1 = Individualism will show a negative correlation to war initiation

 Ha0 = Individualism will show no correlation to war initiation.

 Hb1 = Xenophobia will show a positive correlation to war initiation

Honors Research Proposal: Social Correlates of War DeCampa 10

 Hb0 = Xenophobia will show no correlation to war initiation.

 Hc1 = Religiosity will show a positive correlation to war initiation

 Hc0 = Religiosity will show no correlation to war initiation.

Methodology

This work uses the Correlates of War Militarized Interstate Disputes (MIDS) data for its

sources of conflict and will use their definition of a MID as discussed earlier (Singer 1999). This

work proposes that societal values may be positively or negatively correlated with MIDs turning

into war and as well for wars already initiated. In order to do that we must define societal values

as a common belief or belief system that is shared across a majority of a nations populous. We

must also define war initiation as the whether or not each MID escalated into a war.

The dependent variable for this work is WARI, or war initiation, defined as a yes or no to

whether a particular MID escalated into a full-blown war. This will be enumerated as a 1 for yes

and a 0 for no. This will be done for the MIDs between 1980 to 2010, using the MIDS v4.2 data

set and compared to the correlates of war data to denote war initiation (Palmer, D'Orazio,

Kenwick, and Lane 2015). Given that the dependent variable is binary (War or no war), this

work will use a logistic binomial regression analysis to test the theory and hypothesis discussed

in the previous section and perform a quasi-experiment. Regression analysis allows for

controlling for other explanatory variables as well as isolating the effects of any particular

variable.

There are 5,512 MIDs in the MIDs data set and 1,038 wars in the COW data (Sarkees and

Wayman 2010; Palmer et al. 2015). These wars are divided up into four categories by typology

of war as follows: 336 Inter-state, 442 Intra -state, 198 Extra-state, and 62 Non-state. Only inter-
Honors Research Proposal: Social Correlates of War DeCampa 11

state wars and conflicts from these sets will be used for this analysis. These wars sometimes

involved multiple actors and each participant has its own entry in the data. This will be taken into

consideration for the totals but is an asset when determining if social factors had any effect upon

WARI.

This work will be working with various independent variables as proxies for the three

social factors as well as some variables as comparisons and controls. Their values and their

operationalization are fully explained in the attached codebook. Their basic descriptions and

codes are as follows:

 IMMT: Immigration tolerance.

 CULT: Tolerance of other cultures.
 AUTH: View on Authoritarianism.
 DEMO: View on Democracy.
 MILI: View on Military Dictatorship.
 OLIG: View on Oligarchy.
 INDI: Individualistic control over own life.
 ERDI: Amount of dislike for other ethnicities/races.
 NATM: Nationalism.
 INDM: How much the individual matters.
 PACC: The amount that being accepted by others is important.
 IMRL: Importance of Religion.
 POLI: How a person sees themselves politically as either right wing or left wing.
 CINC: Composite Index of National Capability.

We will be testing these variables using every conflict listed in the MIDS data set

between 1980-2010 and sorting them by the COW war typology as well as sorting using the

descriptor variables described above. This should allow this work to be as valid and robust

among many fronts. In each conflict and war, every side that is militarily involved will be

compared. The country and region list from the MIDs data will be used to identify the society

involved with each conflict. Once identified, each individual actor involved will be compared to
Honors Research Proposal: Social Correlates of War DeCampa 12

the variables defined above to determine WARI. This data comes from the World Values Survey

(WVS) data (1980-2010) as well as the European Values Survey (EVS) data (1980-2010)(WVS

2018; EVS 2018)

This comparison will be done using a binomial logistic regression format which will be

done using the SPSS software system. This project will be using computer software known as

SPSS to do the actual mathematical functions and to provide checks on robustness and

significance of the variables. This will tell us which independent variables have an effect upon

WARI and what effect they may have as well as any effect they may have in isolation or on each

other.

SPSS uses the standard binomial logistic regression model which is as follows:

ln
( P1
1−P1 )
=β 0 + β 1 I 1+ β2 I 2+ β 3 I 3 +… … … …

SPSS’s output will give us probability and significance ratings. The Ln above shows the log of
the data analysis and is the output. The β s in the above formula denote the various proxy
variables and controls used in this project. As is standard in the social sciences, this work will
have a confidence rating of 95% with a p-value of ≤.05. It will also give us ratings of R2, which
will allow us to see the relevance of each variable in the model.

Analysis and Conclusion

It is expected that religiosity and xenophobia will show a positive correlation to WARI as

discussed in the theory section. Individuality is expected to show a negative correlation to war

initiation. Cumulatively, these will give us an outlook on society versus the individual and other

aspects of social traits when they concern war especially the social factors of xenophobia,

individualism, and religiosity. This would be the supposition for the variables in this proposal,

but the right is reserved to add or subtract variables for better relevance in the actual research.
Honors Research Proposal: Social Correlates of War DeCampa 13

If I am right, this could give more weight to predicting when and where wars will be

initiated. This could lead to more peace if used in this manner. It would also help verify some

general theories that have not been statistically tested before.

Honors Research Proposal: Social Correlates of War DeCampa 14

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Honors Research Proposal: Social Correlates of War DeCampa 18

Codebook

Dependent Variable
WARI: Did the MID turn into a war. Dummy variable with 0 = no and 1= yes. Taken from
MIDS MIDSB variable 17 (HiAct) with 0-17 = 0 and 18-21 = 1. See highest action taken
(HACT) below for original coding measures..
Descriptor Variables for Dependent Variable
HACT: Highest action taken. Variable 17 from MIDSB coded 0-21 and -9. Using the threat
levels noted in MIDSB chart.
0 = 0 = No militarized action [1]
1 = 1-6 = Threat to use force or other action [2]
2 = 7-12 = Alert/mobilization/ show of force [3]
3 = 13 -17 = Aggressive action [4]
4 = 18-21 = Formal war [4]
-9 = -9 Missing [-9]
YEAR: Year of MID. Taken from MIDS MIDSA variable 5 (StYear) should be between 1981-
2007.
PART: Participant number of MID. PART= 1 or 2. Denominator that notes party 1, party 2, etc.
Taken directly from MIDS data set using variables 18 and 19 (Number of states on side A
and B) from MIDSA and variables 11 (SideA) and 19 (Orig) from MIDSB and converted
into party 1 (18/11) and party 2 (19/11) with the originator (-/19) always being in party 1.
MIDI: Military Interstate Dispute Identifier number. Taken from MIDSA Data variable 2
(DispNum4). Interval that just gives an ID to the MID.
NATI: Three letter abbreviation for state name for name in question. Used from COW dataset,
StateAbb. See CODE for chart.
CODE: numerical representation of the country. Used from COW dataset, Ccode.
Honors Research Proposal: Social Correlates of War DeCampa 19

USA 2 United States of America GDR 265 German Democratic Republic STP 403 Sao Tome and Principe SYR 652 Syria
CAN 20 Canada BAD 267 Baden GNB 404 Guinea-Bissau SYR 652 Syria
BHM 31 Bahamas SAX 269 Saxony EQG 411 Equatorial Guinea LEB 660 Lebanon
CUB 40 Cuba WRT 271 Wuerttemburg GAM 420 Gambia JOR 663 Jordan
CUB 40 Cuba HSE 273 Hesse Electoral MLI 432 Mali ISR 666 Israel
HAI 41 Haiti HSG 275 Hesse Grand Ducal SEN 433 Senegal SAU 670 Saudi Arabia
HAI 41 Haiti MEC 280 Mecklenburg Schwerin BEN 434 Benin YAR 678 Yemen Arab Republic
DOM 42 Dominican Republic POL 290 Poland MAA 435 Mauritania YEM 679 Yemen
DOM 42 Dominican Republic POL 290 Poland NIR 436 Niger YPR 680 Yemen People's Republic
JAM 51 Jamaica AUH 300 Austria-Hungary CDI 437 Ivory Coast KUW 690 Kuwait
TRI 52 Trinidad and Tobago AUS 305 Austria GUI 438 Guinea BAH 692 Bahrain
BAR 53 Barbados AUS 305 Austria BFO 439 Burkina Faso QAT 694 Qatar
DMA 54 Dominica HUN 310 Hungary LBR 450 Liberia UAE 696 United Arab Emirates
GRN 55 Grenada CZE 315 Czechoslovakia SIE 451 Sierra Leone OMA 698 Oman
SLU 56 St. Lucia CZE 315 Czechoslovakia GHA 452 Ghana AFG 700 Afghanistan
SVG 57 St. Vincent and the Grenadines CZR 316 Czech Republic TOG 461 Togo TKM 701 Turkmenistan
AAB 58 Antigua & Barbuda SLO 317 Slovakia CAO 471 Cameroon TAJ 702 Tajikistan
SKN 60 St. Kitts and Nevis ITA 325 Italy NIG 475 Nigeria KYR 703 Kyrgyzstan
MEX 70 Mexico PAP 327 Papal States GAB 481 Gabon UZB 704 Uzbekistan
BLZ 80 Belize SIC 329 Two Sicilies CEN 482 Central African Republic KZK 705 Kazakhstan
GUA 90 Guatemala SNM 331 San Marino CHA 483 Chad CHN 710 China
HON 91 Honduras MOD 332 Modena CON 484 Congo MON 712 Mongolia
SAL 92 El Salvador PMA 335 Parma DRC 490 Democratic Republic of the Congo TAW 713 Taiwan
NIC 93 Nicaragua TUS 337 Tuscany UGA 500 Uganda KOR 730 Korea
COS 94 Costa Rica MLT 338 Malta KEN 501 Kenya PRK 731 North Korea
PAN 95 Panama ALB 339 Albania TAZ 510 Tanzania ROK 732 South Korea
COL 100 Colombia ALB 339 Albania ZAN 511 Zanzibar JPN 740 Japan
VEN 101 Venezuela MNG 341 Montenegro BUI 516 Burundi JPN 740 Japan
GUY 110 Guyana MAC 343 Macedonia RWA 517 Rwanda IND 750 India
SUR 115 Suriname CRO 344 Croatia SOM 520 Somalia BHU 760 Bhutan
ECU 130 Ecuador YUG 345 Yugoslavia DJI 522 Djibouti PAK 770 Pakistan
PER 135 Peru YUG 345 Yugoslavia ETH 530 Ethiopia BNG 771 Bangladesh
BRA 140 Brazil BOS 346 Bosnia and Herzegovina ETH 530 Ethiopia MYA 775 Myanmar
BOL 145 Bolivia KOS 347 Kosovo ERI 531 Eritrea SRI 780 Sri Lanka
PAR 150 Paraguay SLV 349 Slovenia ANG 540 Angola MAD 781 Maldives
PAR 150 Paraguay GRC 350 Greece MZM 541 Mozambique NEP 790 Nepal
CHL 155 Chile GRC 350 Greece ZAM 551 Zambia THI 800 Thailand
ARG 160 Argentina CYP 352 Cyprus ZIM 552 Zimbabwe CAM 811 Cambodia
URU 165 Uruguay BUL 355 Bulgaria MAW 553 Malawi LAO 812 Laos
UKG 200 United Kingdom MLD 359 Moldova SAF 560 South Africa DRV 816 Vietnam
IRE 205 Ireland ROM 360 Romania NAM 565 Namibia RVN 817 Republic of Vietnam
NTH 210 Netherlands RUS 365 Russia LES 570 Lesotho MAL 820 Malaysia
NTH 210 Netherlands EST 366 Estonia BOT 571 Botswana SIN 830 Singapore
BEL 211 Belgium EST 366 Estonia SWA 572 Swaziland BRU 835 Brunei
BEL 211 Belgium LAT 367 Latvia MAG 580 Madagascar PHI 840 Philippines
LUX 212 Luxembourg LAT 367 Latvia COM 581 Comoros INS 850 Indonesia
LUX 212 Luxembourg LIT 368 Lithuania MAS 590 Mauritius ETM 860 East Timor
FRN 220 France LIT 368 Lithuania SEY 591 Seychelles AUL 900 Australia
FRN 220 France UKR 369 Ukraine MOR 600 Morocco PNG 910 Papua New Guinea
MNC 221 Monaco BLR 370 Belarus MOR 600 Morocco NEW 920 New Zealand
LIE 223 Liechtenstein ARM 371 Armenia ALG 615 Algeria VAN 935 Vanuatu
SWZ 225 Switzerland GRG 372 Georgia TUN 616 Tunisia SOL 940 Solomon Islands
SPN 230 Spain AZE 373 Azerbaijan TUN 616 Tunisia KIR 946 Kiribati
AND 232 Andorra FIN 375 Finland LIB 620 Libya TUV 947 Tuvalu
POR 235 Portugal SWD 380 Sweden SUD 625 Sudan FIJ 950 Fiji
HAN 240 Hanover NOR 385 Norway SSD 626 South Sudan TON 955 Tonga
BAV 245 Bavaria NOR 385 Norway IRN 630 Iran NAU 970 Nauru
GMY 255 Germany DEN 390 Denmark TUR 640 Turkey MSI 983 Marshall Islands
GMY 255 Germany DEN 390 Denmark IRQ 645 Iraq PAL 986 Palau
GFR 260 German Federal Republic ICE 395 Iceland EGY 651 Egypt FSM 987 Federated States of Micronesia
CAP 402 Cape Verde EGY 651 Egypt WSM 990 Samoa

Independent Variables – Proxy Variables

IMMT: immigration tolerance, Variable G042 WVS/EVS data sets, Do you feel that immigrants
are or will be a threat to society? -5= Missing, -4= Not asked, -3= Not applicable, -2= No
Honors Research Proposal: Social Correlates of War DeCampa 20

answer, -1= Don’t Know, 1 to 10 with 1 being the greatest threat and 10 being the least
threat. The WVS creates an aggregate level variable for each country by taking the mean
score for each country on each variable in a given year.
CULT: tolerance versus other cultures. Variable E145 EVS/WVS data sets. Immigrants and
their customs/traditions. -5= Missing, -4= Not asked, -3= Not applicable, -2= No answer,
-1= Don’t Know. 1 = Good for society if immigrants maintain their customs. 2= Good for
society if immigrants don’t maintain their customs/traditions but adapt customs of the
host country. The WVS creates an aggregate level variable for each country by taking the
mean score for each country on each variable in a given year.
AUTH: View on authoritarianism. Proxied from V127 (Political system: Having a strong leader
who does not have to bother with parliament and elections) from EVS/WVS data sets. -
5= Missing, -4= Not asked, -3= Not applicable, -2= No answer, -1= Don’t Know. 1 =
Very Good, 2 = Fairly Good, 3 = Fairly Bad, 4 = Very Bad. The WVS creates an
aggregate level variable for each country by taking the mean score for each country on
each variable in a given year.
DEMO: View on Democracy. Proxied from V130 (Having a democratic political system) from
EVS/WVS data sets. -5= Missing, -4= Not asked, -3= Not applicable, -2= No answer, -1=
Don’t Know. 1 = Very Good, 2 = Fairly Good, 3 = Fairly Bad, 4 = Very Bad. The WVS
creates an aggregate level variable for each country by taking the mean score for each
country on each variable in a given year.
MILI: View on Military Dictatorship. Proxied from V129 (Political system: Having the army
rule) from EVS/WVS data sets. -5= Missing, -4= Not asked, -3= Not applicable, -2= No
answer, -1= Don’t Know. 1 = Very Good, 2 = Fairly Good, 3 = Fairly Bad, 4 = Very Bad.
The WVS creates an aggregate level variable for each country by taking the mean score
for each country on each variable in a given year.
OLIG: View on Oligarchy. Proxied from V128 (Political system: Having experts, not
government, make decisions according to what they think is best for the country) from
EVS/WVS data sets. -5= Missing, -4= Not asked, -3= Not applicable, -2= No answer, -1=
Don’t Know. 1 = Very Good, 2 = Fairly Good, 3 = Fairly Bad, 4 = Very Bad. The WVS
creates an aggregate level variable for each country by taking the mean score for each
country on each variable in a given year.
INDI: Individualism. Proxied from variable V55 (How much control over your own life) from
EVS/WVS data sets. -5= Missing, -4= Not asked, -3= Not applicable, -2= No answer, -1=
Don’t Know. 1 to 10 with 1 being the least amount of control and 10 being the greatest
amount of control. The WVS creates an aggregate level variable for each country by
taking the mean score for each country on each variable in a given year.
ERDI: amount of dislike for other ethnicities/races. Proxied by variable V37 (Would not like to
have as neighbors: People of a different race) from the WVS/EVS data sets. -5= Missing,
-4= Not asked, -3= Not applicable, -2= No answer, -1= Don’t Know, 1= mentioned, 2=
not mentioned. The WVS creates an aggregate level variable for each country by taking
the mean score for each country on each variable in a given year.
NATM: nationalism. Variable G006 EVS & WVS Data sets. How proud are you to be a citizen
of [country]? -5= Missing, -4= Not asked, -3= Not applicable, -2= No answer, -1= Don’t
Honors Research Proposal: Social Correlates of War DeCampa 21

Know/ Neutral, 1= Very proud, 2= Quite proud, 3= Not very proud, 4= Not at all proud.
The WVS creates an aggregate level variable for each country by taking the mean score
for each country on each variable in a given year.
INDM: how much the individual matters. Variable E059 from WVS data set. Are we more
likely to have a health society if the government allows more freedom for individuals to
do as they wish? -5= Missing, -4= Not asked, -3= Not applicable, -2= No answer, -1=
Don’t Know, 1= Agree completely, 2= Agree somewhat, 3= Neither agree nor disagree,
4= Disagree somewhat, 5= Disagree completely. The WVS creates an aggregate level
variable for each country by taking the mean score for each country on each variable in a
given year.
PACC: the amount that being accepted by others is important. Proxied by variable
V5(Importance in life-Friends) from WVS/EVS data sets. -5= Missing, -4= Not asked, -
3= Not applicable, -2= No answer, -1= Don’t Know/ Neutral, 1= Very Important, 2=
Quite Important, 3= Not Important, 4= Not at all important. The WVS creates an
aggregate level variable for each country by taking the mean score for each country on
each variable in a given year.
IMRL: Importance of Religion. Variable A006_CO (Religion Important) from the EVS & WVS
data sets. Original coding: How important is religion in your life. -5= Missing, -4= Not
asked, -3= Not applicable, -2= No answer, -1= Don’t Know/ Neutral, 1= Very Important,
2= Quite Important, 3= Not Important, 4= Not at all important. The WVS creates an
aggregate level variable for each country by taking the mean score for each country on
each variable in a given year.
POLI: How a person sees themselves politically as either right wing or left wing. Using variable
V95 from WVS/EVS data set. -5= Missing, -4= Not asked, -3= Not applicable, -2= No
answer, -1= Don’t Know/ Neutral, 1 to 10 with 1 being the leftist and 10 being right
wing. The WVS creates an aggregate level variable for each country by taking the mean
score for each country on each variable in a given year.
CINC = Composite Index of National Capability. Used from National Material Capabilities
Dataset, variable Cinc. The Composite Index of National Capability (CINC) score is an
aggregate of six individual measured components of national material capabilities into a
single value per state-year (Singer, Bremer, and Stuckey 1997). The CINC reflects an
average of a state’s share of the system total of each element of capabilities in each year,
weighting each component equally. In doing so, the CINC will always range between 0
and 1. “0.0” would indicate that a state had 0% of the total capabilities present in the
system in that year, while “1.0” would indicate that the state had 100% of the capabilities
in a given year (and by definition that every other state had exactly 0% capabilities in that
year.)
Descriptor Variables for Independent Variables
DATY Year of Independent Variable data. Will be the date of the WVS/EVS data for the survey

wave before the conflict. The previous one if survey year and conflict is in same year.
Honors Research Proposal: Social Correlates of War DeCampa 22

Time-Line for Thesis.

December 6th - Defend proposal and get approved.

Over Christmas Break – Read more literature, look at more data sets, and fine tune variables.

January & February 2019 – Data collection, compilation, and entry.

March 2019 – Analysis of Data and writing of that analysis.

April 2019 – Write Draft of completed paper. Revise. Finalize.

End of April/ Beginning of May - Submit Paper, Defend and Present Thesis.