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Thailand Energy Transition Report - Outlook For 2024
Thailand Energy Transition Report - Outlook For 2024
2024 OUTLOOK
INTRODUCTION
It has been a year since we released our inaugural energy transition report (Thailand’s Energy
Transition: 2023 Outlook). Last year, our three main predictions were: (i) an increased reliance
on liqui�ied natural gas (“LNG”) to meet Thailand’s energy needs; (ii) the additional deployment
of renewable energy projects; and (iii) the development of an electric vehicle (“EV”) ecosystem.
Each of our predictions has proven to be accurate, and indeed, the movement we have seen in
each of these areas has exceeded our expectations.
Thailand remains heavily reliant on natural gas for electricity and heat generation. Domestic
production has tailed off signi�icantly in the past few years, while electricity demand continues
to increase to support Thailand’s growing economy, meaning LNG has been relied upon heavily
to meet the country’s energy needs. We anticipated the announcement of additional renewable
energy projects in 2023; the trend of deploying additional green�ield renewable energy projects
is likely to continue for the remainder of the 2020s, and beyond. Finally, the EV ecosystem in
Thailand has already started to take off. In last year’s report, we commented that there “are few
[EVs] driving on Thai roads at the moment”; one year later, this statement is already out of date.
As 2024 approaches, the energy transition remains the primary lens through which investments
in the energy sector are evaluated. Once again, the 2024 Outlook will not provide an exhaustive
analysis of all aspects of Thailand’s energy transition, as the topic is broader and deeper than a
report of this nature would be able to cover. Rather, this report will provide a snapshot of key
legislative, regulatory and policy initiatives that are likely to guide the energy transition in 2024
and further into the future.
Should you have any questions or wish to discuss the contents of this report in greater detail,
please contact the individuals appearing on the �inal page.
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Thailand’s Energy Transition – 2024 Outlook
TABLE OF CONTENTS
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Thailand’s Energy Transition – 2024 Outlook
MARKET OVERVIEW
Since we released our Energy Transition Report 2023 a little over one year ago, unsurprisingly,
Thailand’s energy sector has not experienced any revolutionary changes which fundamentally
alter its core structures. Nonetheless, as 2023 comes to an end, it is useful to focus on trends from
the past year within the context of mid-term and long-term views of the energy transition.
In May 2023, Thailand held a general election, which has resulted in the formation of a new
government and Prime Minister. Accordingly, we would be remiss if we did not consider the
impact Thailand’s newish government is likely to have on the energy sector generally and the
power sector speci�ically. Prior to the election, the outgoing government hurried the approval of
an additional tender of 3.66 GW of renewable energy on top of the awarding of projects with an
aggregate peak capacity of 4.88 GW in 2023.
The incoming government has so far indicated that its primary objective is to reduce energy costs
for consumers. According to the policy statement of the council of minsters to the Parliament on
11 September 2023, the new government af�irmed its priorities to: (i) reduce energy expenses,
(ii) promote the use of clean and renewable energy to align with sustainability goals, and (iii)
support new energy sources that will promote future energy security. Although no concrete
policies have yet been announced, if the government intends to reduce energy costs in the short-
term, it will likely need to rely on subsidies to speci�ic groups. In the mid- to long-term, however,
energy costs will likely be reduced by increasing competition in the sector. Luckily for the
government, today there is less of a trade-off to be made between decarbonization objectives and
reduced energy prices, with the levelized cost of energy for solar power decreasing signi�icantly
over the past decade. With the electri�ication of transportation, long-term reductions in energy
prices and greater overall predictability for consumers seem like achievable objectives.
Natural gas will be the key energy source for the foreseeable future
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Thailand’s Energy Transition – 2024 Outlook
Natural Gas remains the key driver in in Laos. Imports for the year-to-date in
Thailand’s energy mix, accounting for September, 2023 were down nearly 15%
approximately 57% of all electricity from the same period last year. Further, less
generation in 2023 to date, measured in electricity has been produced from coal and
GWh. 2 This is an increase from last year, lignite power plants so far in 2023 when
when natural gas accounted for 53% of compared to the same period in 2022.
electricity generation and appeared to be Although generation from domestic
trending downwards. The increased reliance hydropower and renewables has seen a
on natural gas comes in response to slight uptick in 2023, natural gas remains the
reductions in cross-border power purchases, pivotal fuel keeping the lights on in 2023.
which are mainly derived from hydropower
The trend towards reliance on natural gas for from the Middle East, accounting for 63% of
power production is likely to continue in imports. 3 On the whole, Thailand remains
2024. Although renewable energy capacity is heavily reliant on imports of petroleum
set to expand dramatically in the coming (including re�ined products and natural gas),
decade, much of the additional power accounting for 69.4% of total supply.
generation from solar and wind is not
expected to come online until 2025 at the The Department of Mineral Fuels, Ministry of
earliest. With an ever-increasing share of Energy (“DMF”) launched the 24th bid-round
natural gas coming from LNG, price volatility in April 2022, with three offshore blocks in
in global markets will continue to put the Gulf of Thailand being tendered. In June
upward pressure on Thai power prices. 2023, the DMF announced that PTTEP Public
Company Limited (“PTTEP”) was the
For more details on the natural gas outlook, successful bidder for its bids on the G1/65
please refer to the Electricity Generation and G3/65 blocks, whereas Chevron was
section. successful in its bid for the G2/65 block.
Petroleum operations under all three blocks
Petroleum will be carried out pursuant to production
sharing contracts, as is the DMF’s policy for
In 2022, Thailand imported 896.5 thousand all offshore blocks awarded after
barrels of oil equivalent per day amendments to the Petroleum Act in 2017.
(“MBOEPD”) of crude oil, representing a
5.9% increase from levels in 2021. The The Thai government has reportedly re-
majority of Thailand’s crude oil now comes started discussions with its Cambodian
counterparts on resolving the long-standing
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4 International Energy Agency. Report, August 2023, 5 Thailand’s 2nd Updated Nationally Determined
at page 6. Contribution.
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ELECTRICITY GENERATION
Overview
Electricity generation is currently the largest contributor to Thailand’s CO2 emissions. Further,
the transportation sector is responsible for the second highest levels of emissions, and the Thai
government has already announced ambitious plans to roll out the adoption of electric vehicles.
As such, decarbonizing the grid will be essential to allow Thailand to achieve its NDCs. In this
section, we will examine key aspects of the power sector in Thailand at present, as well as policy
initiatives being developed that will permit Thailand to accelerate its decarbonization objectives.
With domestic reserves being depleted, the September 2023. 6 With proven and probable
Thai energy sector is increasingly reliant on reserves being depleted, this trend is likely
imported natural gas; unfortunately, to continue into the foreseeable future.
Thailand’s newfound reliance comes at an Thailand jumped from the 11th to the 8th
importune time. Domestic upstream biggest importer of natural gas in October
production, particularly in the Erawan gas 2023. 7 Given the time lag in developing new
�ield, has dropped signi�icantly over the past energy technology, Thailand’s reliance on
several years. In June 2021, Erawan was LNG to plug its energy gap will likely
producing 1,040 million standard cubic feet continue for at least the remainder of this
per day (“MMSCFD”), whereas it has only decade.
produced 295 MMSCFD from January to
6 7
Energy Policy and Planning Of�ice, Ministry of “Thailand Soars from 11th to 8th in Global LNG
Energy. Electricity statistics Import Rankings with 25% surge”
(http://www.eppo.go.th/index.php/en/en- (www.hydrocarbonprocessing.com).
energystatistics/electricity-statistic).
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8 Department of Mineral Fuels, Ministry of Energy. 9 tCO2eq means one metric ton of carbon dioxide
Annual Report, 2022, at pages37-38. equivalent
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We understand that all the selected power lack of transparency in the selection process.
producers have accepted the procurement Consequently, the court issued an order to
results and relevant requirements. Pursuant suspend the ERC Noti�ication on Selected
to the 2022 RE Regulation, the successful Power Producers pertaining to wind projects
bidders are obligated to enter into and the execution of relevant power
agreements with the respective power purchase agreements until the court has
utilities (i.e., EGAT, Metropolitan Electricity suf�icient time to evaluate the merits of the
Authority (“MEA”), and Provincial Electricity claim.
Authority (“PEA”)) within 180 days or two
years, depending on their respective 2023 additional procurement
scheduled commercial operation dates
(“SCOD”). In March 2023, the National Energy Policy
Committee approved an additional
Notwithstanding the above, certain bidders procurement of renewable energy for the
for wind projects �iled a petition against the years 2022-2030 (the “Additional
ERC with the administrative court, following Procurement”) and set out target
the announcement of the ERC Noti�ication on procurement quotas and scheduled
Selected Power Producers. The claim alleged commercial operations for each energy
that the ERC's failure to announce clear source as follows:
evaluation criteria and to permit companies
to observe the scoring process resulted in a
According to the Policy Committee’s their offers, and the selection will be
resolution, after the ERC announced the made by considering their existing
selected power producers under the 2022 technical readiness scores.
RE Regulation, the Additional Procurement
will commence in accordance with the (2) The remaining quota from the purchase
following guidelines: under (1) will be used to procure
electricity from power producers that
(1) The priority of the Additional neither satis�ied the required
Procurement is to purchase electricity quali�ications nor passed the minimum
generated by wind energy and ground- technical requirements under the 2022
mounted solar from producers which RE Regulation. These producers may
have passed the minimum technical amend their electricity offer. The
readiness requirement but were not procurement will be prioritized based on
selected under the 2022 RE Regulation. fuel or generation sources as follows: (i)
These producers do not have to resubmit
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biogas; (ii) wind energy; (iii) solar farms; The oversubscription of the 2022
and (iv) industrial waste. procurement demonstrates the private
sector's readiness to supply renewable
Pursuant to the above guidelines, the ERC energy and the feasibility of adopting
conducted a public hearing in April 2023 on policies that would allow for greater
the Draft Regulation regarding the penetration. The competition and market
Procurement of Renewable Energy '1st pricing mechanism enabled by a more
Extension Round' to procure electricity liberalized model has the potential to reduce
generated from wind energy and ground- electricity prices for households and
mounted solar. However, there have been no businesses in the long run. Indeed, if the Thai
further updates on the public hearing or the government wishes to achieve both its
potential announcement for the 1st decarbonization goals and its pledges to
Extension Round from the press or the ERC. lower electricity costs, it will need to harness
market forces to drive down pricing. This
According to the IEA, in order for Thailand to may occur through the granting of access to
be on track to achieve its NDCs by 2050 and the power grids by third parties (see the next
2065, it will need to deploy 32 GW of section), or by implementing a reverse
additional variable renewable energy (i.e. auction mechanism to allow bidders to
wind and solar) to the grid by 2030. 11 If the submit their proposed FiTs as part of their
Thai government intends to achieve its proposals.
NDCs, or at least to have a chance at doing so,
further rounds of renewable energy will be Third party access codes
need to be procured during the remainder of
this decade. As an attempt to increase competition within
the electricity market, in 2022, the ERC
Electricity generation and the public introduced the Noti�ication Re: Criteria and
procurement of electricity have emerged as Guidelines on Preparation of the Third-Party
contentious issues in Thai politics. Over the Access Code for the Electricity Network
past few years, household electricity prices Systems ("ERC TPA Noti�ication"). The ERC
have consistently risen. Several factors TPA Noti�ication mandates speci�ic
contribute to this escalation, including a electricity transmission and distribution
surge in gas prices, capacity payment licensees to develop TPA Codes to allow third
commitments, and an excess supply of parties to connect to or use a licensee's
electricity. Certain political parties are electricity network (a "TPA Code"). EGAT,
pushing for measures to reduce electricity MEA, and PEA will be the initial TPA Code
prices, such as by negotiating a reduction in issuers per the ERC TPA Noti�ication
capacity payments with private power (“Issuers”), with the ERC empowered to
producers and restructuring the country's designate more licensees in the future. The
electricity generation system. The Issuers were obliged to prepare their TPA
contention is that the current policy-led Codes in accordance with the Third-Party
centralised generation system, where only Access Framework Guidelines appended to
few producers generate signi�icant volumes the ERC TPA Noti�ication (the "TPA Code
of electricity pursuant to the government Guidelines"), conduct a public hearing on
policy, should be shifted to the market-led the draft, and submit such draft to the ERC
distributed generation system. Under this within November 2022. EGAT, MEA, and PEA
proposed revised structure, multiple power conducted public hearings on their
producers (including EGAT, MEA and PEA) respective draft TPA Codes in October 2022.
would be able to offer electricity to end users
at the price dictated by the market. A TPA Code is a set of rules the Issuers create
to govern how third parties (private power
operators or licensees under the Energy
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Industry Act, B.E. 2550 (2007), other than and out of the Issuer's system is
the Issuers themselves) can utilise their continuously balanced. If an electricity
transmission and distribution grids. The TPA imbalance occurs, the Issuer may notify
Code consists of three parts: (i) a Service the user to remedy such imbalance,
Code; (ii), a Connection Code; and (iii) an purchase the surplus electricity or sell
Operation Code. The Service Code sets out the shortfall using its own electricity;
procedures for third parties to �ile impose �ines on the user causing the
applications to utilise the Issuer's electricity imbalance, or remove the user from the
network, conditions to such utilisation, key system.
features of the service agreement between
the user and the Issuer, and criteria for • congestion management: the Issuers
allocation of the transfer capacity to each will manage congestion within the
user. Technical issues related to the use of transmission grid to maintain the
Issuer's network are covered by the stability and agility of the network. If
Connection Code. These include, for congestion occurs, the Issuers will
example, the minimum technical reduce the allocated capacity of the users
requirements of the user's equipment, the on a �irst-come-�irst-served basis:
process of connecting the user's equipment reducing the capacity allocated to the
to the Issuer's transmission grid, and the user that engaged in the service in
standard data transmission system, security reverse order from the user that entered
system and electrical energy metering into the service agreement last.
system. After interconnection and during the
term of service, the Issuer and the users Currently, the drafts are subject to potential
must comply with the rules prescribed in the revisions based on issues highlighted during
Operation Code to ensure the safe and the public hearing and the ERC's review
ef�icient operation of the transmission grid. process. Given that the drafts are awaiting
the ERC's consideration, the �inal TPA Codes
The introduction of TPA Codes, granting may differ from the current draft versions.
broader access to private electricity Consequently, the timeline for the public
generators, will likely spur competition in announcement and implementation of these
Thailand’s power sector, and possibly reduce initial TPA Codes remains uncertain.
retail electricity prices. A critical aspect to
watch will be the wheeling charges set by Utility green tariff
Issuers, as these will signi�icantly in�luence
the economic feasibility of private electricity A utility green tariff is a voluntary program
trading. provided by local utilities in various
countries, whereby renewable energy
The following are selected key elements certi�icates (“RECs”) are issued to power
under the current draft TPA Codes: purchasers to signify that a speci�ic portion
of the power they consume comes from
• use-it-or-lose-it rule: the users are renewable sources. This program enables
required to connect or use the Issuer's businesses, as customers, to claim to be
electricity network up to a speci�ied buying renewable energy exclusively or at a
threshold. Failure to do so allows the speci�ied level in order to power their
Issuer to suspend the service to that user operations, and therefore presumably lower
or reduce the allocated capacity of that their Scope 2 carbon emissions. Depending
user and reallocate it to other users. on the requirements of the utility green tariff
scheme, typically the renewable energy can
• electricity balancing obligation: the be generated either by projects owned by the
users have the duty to submit an local utility or from independent producers
electricity management plan to the in a regulated electricity market. There are
Issuer and manage the volume of three main models of utility green tariff
electricity in the grid. They must ensure programs, i.e., (i) a sleeved power purchase
that the amount of electricity put into
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agreement (“PPA”) model where the local Nestlé (Thai) Ltd., and Innopower Co., Ltd.
utility may manage the power supply on the with respect to the production of ice cream
customer’s behalf by way of entering into at Nestlé (Thai) Ltd.’s factory to be powered
power PPAs with independent power by entirely renewable energy through a
producers; (ii) a subscriber model where the utility green tariff sandbox program offered
customers subscribe to a portion of larger by the EGAT throughout 2023. 13
renewable energy projects with the local
utility; and (iii) a market-based rate model, It will be intriguing to observe how the
where the customers are allowed to contract utility green tariff program will unfold at a
with project developers directly or purchase larger scale, since the provision of the
electricity at wholesale prices. 12 Each program will require both reliable sources of
scheme will determine the characteristics of renewable energy and an upgrade of EGAT's
the utility green tariff programs being grid infrastructure. While the utility green
offered such as the capacity of the program, tariff in Thailand may introduce an
contract period, type of resources and appealing concept for companies who are
eligible customers. looking to have quick access to green power,
there are several potential obstacles that
Every green tariff program will establish its may need to be overcome. First, smaller
own unique set of regulations, procedures companies may be priced out or otherwise
and eligibility criteria. In this regard, if prevented from joining the utility green tariff
participation in the program is limited to program if they do not qualify within the
certain customers (e.g., industrial users), the criteria, and limitations of the program being
local utility will typically de�ine the offered or if the program is oversubscribed.
standards for determining which customers Second, although the intention of a utility
qualify to purchase utility green tariffs green tariff program is to facilitate
within the respective program. businesses aiming to reduce their Scope 2
emissions in order to achieve
A utility green tariff scheme is intended as an decarbonization goals, it is unclear how
alternative for buyers to procure renewable purchasing RECs under a utility green tariff
power for their operations without having to scheme will be evaluated in various
be co-located with a renewable power plant circumstances. For instance, exporters to
(e.g., rooftop solar) or be supplied power Europe or other jurisdictions that are
directly from a renewable generator. It also looking to impose carbon import pricing will
allows companies to gain access to want to gain clarity on how RECs purchased
renewable power more easily, especially for under this scheme will be treated for the
those who are aiming to lower their carbon purposes of carbon reporting. Further
footprint to meet their sustainability or developments in greenwashing claims must
decarbonization goals under their also be closely monitored by those intending
environmental, social and governance to make use of the utility green tariff
policies. program in order to achieve their stated
decarbonization goals.
In Thailand, EGAT, the main power producer
in the country, is in the process of developing Potential areas of new growth
a utility green tariff program which it plans
to commence within 2024, with an aim to Nuclear
attract foreign investors. In response to
global food manufacturer Nestlé ’s goal to As mentioned above, Thailand depends
achieve zero GHG emissions by 2050, EGAT mostly on natural gas for its electricity
is currently collaborating with its subsidiary, needs, with other traditional sources of
/nestle-egat-erc-sandbox;
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Thailand’s Energy Transition – 2024 Outlook
power such as oil, coal and hydropower also under the Ministry of Higher Education,
playing a signi�icant role in the electricity Science, Research, and Innovation. 14
mix. At the moment, Thailand does not have
any nuclear plants supplying power to the In Thailand, the Nuclear Energy for Peace
grid. However, nuclear energy is emerging as Act, B.E. 2559 (2016) is the current law
an attractive alternative across the globe as a governing the regulation and management
potential tool to both address climate change of nuclear energy activities. This Act outlines
and reduce dependence on fossil fuels. the legal framework and provisions related
Unlike fossil fuels, nuclear power plants do to the licensing process and compliance
not generate direct carbon dioxide emissions considerations for the production,
during their operations, making them an possession, importation and exportation of
attractive option in this regard. radioactive materials, radiation source
materials, and nuclear facilities. The Nuclear
Energy for Peace Commission is the primary
regulator under this Act.
14 Of�ice of Atoms for Peace, Ministry of Higher National Report of Thailand Convention on Nuclear
Education, Science, Research and Innovation. Safety, 2019.
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Secondly, the cost of developing nuclear 10% of the country’s projected electricity
facilities is much higher than other low- demand by the year 2037. 16 Therefore, it is
carbon sources, such as wind and solar. reasonable to assume that the government
Although nuclear provides the bene�it of intends to develop offshore wind power in
baseload power that is unavailable to the coming decades.
variable renewable energy plants, it is
unclear whether this will be an attractive Although many of the general laws and
complement to Thailand’s grid, given the regulations relating to power projects would
existing abundance of thermal power plants apply in the context of offshore wind, a
providing baseload power. In the short- to framework to allocate development rights in
mid-term, it is not clear whether nuclear speci�ic offshore blocks would need to be
power would be cost competitive. created. At the moment, offshore petroleum
exploration and production is the closest
Nonetheless, there are some indications that analogue of �ixed assets operating in
policymakers may include nuclear power Thailand’s territorial waters and exclusive
development plans in the country’s updated economic zone. Upstream petroleum
PDP, expected to be released in late 2023 or operations are governed under the
2024. Given the lack of local expertise, Petroleum Act, where concessionaires and
foreign sponsors, suppliers and technology contractors are granted concessions or
providers will likely play a key role in laying production sharing
the foundations for Thailand’s nuclear contracts to operate
industry, should it ever materialize. in speci�ic areas in
the Gulf of Thailand.
Offshore Wind A similar
framework may
There are few locations in Thailand where need to be devised
wind speeds render wind power economical. under the Energy
The northeast of the country is the site of Industry Act to
most of the current onshore wind projects. permit offshore
Although there are currently no offshore wind projects to be
developed. ©Bing Jhen Hong via Canva.com
wind projects under development, the
nation's extensive coastlines present a
potential opportunity for this sustainable A further challenge would be costs;
energy solution. development and construction of offshore
wind projects typically results in higher
According to the research conducted by the costs than onshore wind or solar projects. In
Of�ice of Natural Resources and addition, offshore power projects would
Environmental Policy and Planning, require specialized equipment, such as
Thailand has wind potential with an average �loating platforms and subsea cables, along
wind speed of 6 meters per second at a with the intricate and specialized
height of 90 meters, and potentially can installation and maintaining procedures.
reach 13 GW in 21 areas across the country. Fortunately, a number of Thai developers
Along the coast of Thailand, the offshore have gained experience in offshore and
wind potential is estimated to be generate up nearshore wind projects in neighboring
to 7 GW. 15 In addition, according to a study jurisdictions. Other challenges that Thai
done by the EGAT, the generation of up to 13 regulators would need to consider include
GW of electricity from offshore wind power noise pollution, visual disturbances, and
would be suf�icient to meet approximately their impact on marine ecosystems, which
the-potential-of-offshore-wind-power-in-thailands-
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Final thoughts
With its comparatively large carbon-
footprint, the power generation sector is at
the core of Thailand’s energy transition.
Although the energy transition remains in its
early stages, a roadmap is slowly coming into
focus, with a continued reliance on natural
gas in the short- to mid-term, and a heavier
reliance on renewables such as wind and
solar in the mid- to long-term. An open
question is whether and how quickly Thai
policymakers will permit greater
competition in supplying electricity in order
to help drive the energy transition forward.
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TRANSPORTATION
Thailand is at the forefront of an ambitious
energy transition, with a strong emphasis
on transforming its transportation sector.
The nation’s commitment to combat
climate change and reduce GHG emissions
is underscored by strategic initiatives
aimed at revolutionizing its transport
ecosystem. According to the Thailand’s
Mid-century, Long-term Low Greenhouse
Gas Emission Development Strategy dated
October 2021 submitted under the Paris
Agreement, Thailand’s national greenhouse
gas inventories can be categorized into �ive
©VichienPetchmai via Canva.com
sectors of sources and sinks: (i) energy; (ii)
industrial processes and product use
(IPPU); (iii) agriculture; (iv) land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF); and (v) waste.
Notably, the energy sector holds the largest share, with the transport sector being a signi�icant
contributor to increased energy consumption and GHG emissions. 17
According to the Asian Development Bank, We have set out a number of updates on
among transport modes, road transport Thailand’s transition to electric mobility in
accounts for 26% of the country’s annual public transport.
GHG emissions. 18 Tackling emissions in this
sector is therefore vital to Thailand’s efforts Decommissioning of fossil fuel-
to combat climate change and reach its GHG powered buses
emissions reduction goals by 2030.
17 https://unfccc.int/sites/default/�iles/resource/Thailand_LTS1.pdf.
18 https://www.adb.org/news/photo-essays/transforming-thailand-s-transport-using-green-solutions.
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The new subsidy, ranging from 50,000 to for EV manufacturers. These incentives
100,000 baht per car, is slightly less than the include zero import duty for machine/raw
existing subsidy scheme, which currently materials and a corporate income tax
ranges from 70,000 to 150,000 baht per car. exemption for three to eight years, covering
This adjustment re�lects the growing all types of EVs, including passenger cars,
preference for EVs among buyers. buses, trucks, motorcycles, three-wheelers,
and ships. The BOI is also actively promoting
The EV board has also directed the Excise the establishment of an electric charging
Department to extend the registration network and other essential elements to
period for EVs from the end of December to strengthen the EV ecosystem and related
the end of January. This extension aims to industries in Thailand.
accommodate buyers of EVs during the
Thailand International Motor Expo in In November 2023, the BOI sanctioned tax
December, allowing them to claim the incentives for companies in the automotive
subsidy. industry that invest in ‘automation and
robotics’ to enhance productivity. These
New BOI promotion incentives are applicable to both existing and
new investments aimed at improving
The Board of Investment (“BOI”) remains production ef�iciency. Companies meeting
committed to providing various incentives the criteria and investing in automated
19 https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-
transportation/thailand-toyota-jointly-develop-
domestic-ev-industry-2023-11-09/.
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INDUSTRY DEVELOPMENT
Thailand's industrial development has which corresponds to the actual amount of
evolved signi�icantly in recent years. The GHG emissions generated in the production
nation has begun aligning national policies of those goods. The CBAM Certi�icate is
with green initiatives, supporting priced at the average closing price of
collaboration between the public and private emissions rights under the ETS.
sectors. Emphasis has been placed on
motivating business owners to prioritize In the initial phase, CBAM will apply to six
environmental concerns, offering bene�its targeted products with the potential for a
and promotions to encourage the transition high carbon footprint, i.e., cement, steel,
towards eco-friendly practices. aluminum, fertilizers, electricity, and
hydrogen. The transitional period for
This joint effort not only aims to boost the implementing CBAM began on 1 October
competitive capabilities of Thai industries 2023 and will end on 31 December 2025,
but also acknowledges the global trend during which time EU importers are
favoring business activities that prioritize required to report the quantity and the
sustainability and eco-conscious practices. direct and embedded carbon emissions of
This section will discuss factors that impact imported products. The full implementation
the direction of industrial development, of the CBAM is set to take place in 2026,
including the European Union’s (“EU”) where importers in the EU will have to
Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism purchase CBAM Certi�icates to address
(“CBAM”), investment promotion embedded carbon emissions.
opportunities and other initiatives to
decarbonize in certain industries. Impact of CBAM in Thailand
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Thailand’s Energy Transition – 2024 Outlook
regardless of whether they are legally battery swapping stations; (b) businesses
obligated to do so under their domestic law. related to new energy technologies, such as
hydrogen production from renewable
In general, complying with CBAM will result energy, green ammonia, hydrocarbons or
in an increase in expenses for Thai fossil fuels, and power or steam production
manufacturers and exporters both in terms from hydrogen; and (c) novel food or organic
of direct costs for compliance and indirect food businesses.
costs related to monitoring, measuring and
reporting carbon emissions. In order to Initiative to Decarbonization
retain its competitiveness in the EU market,
Thai business operators may need to start Industrial processes are a major contributor
exploring ways to reduce their GHG to GHG emissions in Thailand. Addressing
emissions (i.e., their Scope 1 emissions), as these emissions is crucial for Thailand to
well as requiring their suppliers to source achieve its net-zero emissions goal, since the
their materials from low-emitted carbon manufacturing processes for products like
origins (i.e., their Scope 2 and 3 emissions). cement, metals, chemicals, and ozone-
It may also be helpful for operators to depleting substances are signi�icant sources
proactively expand their investments into of GHG emissions.
carbon reducing initiatives.
To tackle this challenge, the Department of
Summary Industrial Works, Ministry of Industry, has
developed the National Action Plan for GHG
The ability to manage GHG emissions will Mitigation from the Industrial Processes and
become another factor determining the Product Use Sector and Industrial
competitiveness of Thai businesses in the EU Wastewater Measures (2021-2030). This
market, and other countries that implement plan includes strategies like clinker
similar border adjustment measures. Thai substitution and replacing high global
businesses in industries targeted by CBAM warming potential refrigerants. With this
should make efforts to reduce GHG plan in action, Thailand aims to achieve net-
emissions in their production processes to zero CO2 emissions from industrial
enhance their long-run competitiveness. processes and product use by 2050 and net-
zero GHG emissions by 2065.
BOI Promoted Businesses
Additionally, the Ministry of Industry is
The BOI recently announced new incentive promoting the Bio, Circular, and Green
packages for several sustainable business (“BCG”) economic model. This model aims to
activities. Based on Thailand’s investment enhance the sustainability of biological
promotion strategy for 2023-2028, the BOI’s resources, support local economies, improve
aim is to promote investments for the competitiveness of Thai BCG industries,
restructuring Thailand’s economy into a and adapt to global changes. The BCG policy
“new economy” in three aspects: (i) encourages the development and
innovation (being an economy that is driven manufacturing of sustainable products and
by technology, innovation and creativity); (ii) services using green technologies and
competition (being an economy that is circular concepts, emphasizing eco-friendly
competitive, adaptive and generates high manufacturing practices.
growth); and (iii) inclusivity (being an
economy that values environmental and The Industrial Estate Authority of Thailand
social sustainability, creates opportunity and (“IEAT”), a governmental body responsible
reduces inequality). The promoted activities for promoting industrial investment and
were recategorized into 10 new promoted operations, is enthusiastically embracing the
businesses which now include: (a) BCG model. Notably, IEAT has embarked on a
businesses related to electric vehicles, such mega project—a carbon-neutral model
as fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEV) and industrial estate known as a "Smart Park"
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Thailand’s Energy Transition – 2024 Outlook
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Thailand’s Energy Transition – 2024 Outlook
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Thailand’s Energy Transition – 2024 Outlook
PTTEP, announced the country's �irst CCS that may affect health, safety, and the
project in June 2022, located at the Arthit environment. It is worth noting that the
offshore gas �ield. The project is currently public hearing period for the draft
undergoing a preliminary front-end amendment to the Petroleum Act has already
engineering and design (Pre-FEED) study, ended, and the draft is being reviewed by the
and it is anticipated that CCS operations will relevant government authorities. Once the
commence in 2026. PTTEP is also exploring draft has been �inalized, it will be proposed
additional opportunities in CCUS initiatives. for the approval of the Cabinet accordingly.
The oil and gas industry has been a pioneer CCUS has become increasingly recognized as
in embracing CCS. This adoption was rooted a critical component on the path forward
in the industry's pre-existing practices and toward reaching net-zero GHG emissions.
technological expertise. Techniques The shift away from the use of fossil fuels will
fundamental to CCS, such as the separation not be able to take place immediately due to
of CO2 from natural gas, are already in place the existing infrastructure and economic
and are essential in order to transport gas linkages involved in implementing this
through pipelines. Additionally, the oil and transition. The ultimate objective is to have
gas sector discovered some time ago that the majority of energy originate from low-
once CO2 is isolated, it can be re-injected into carbon sources. In the meantime, CCS and
geological structures in order to produce CCUS can dramatically reduce emissions
additional quantities of petroleum. In other from fossil fuel-based power plants and
words, it not only serves to decrease the businesses, therefore lessening the negative
emissions footprint of various operations impact on the environment caused during
but also has the strategic advantage of being the transition to renewable energy sources.
deployed in reservoirs to boost oil
production through the process of enhanced The other supportive role of CCS and CCUS is
oil recovery. The integration of CCS and CCUS to stabilize the grid. As we increase the share
in the oil and gas industry is a testament to of intermittent renewable sources like wind
how traditional practices can be adapted and and solar on the grid, there will be periods
re�ined to address modern challenges. where energy demand exceeds supply,
especially without suf�iciently advanced
Development from Thai policies and energy storage solutions. During these
regulatory authorities periods, gas-�ired power plants equipped
with CCS can serve as a cleaner backup,
Currently, there are two ongoing maintaining the resilience of the grid
developments in relation to the CCS and without signi�icantly adding to carbon
CCUS. First, the draft amendment to the emissions. Given the extent natural gas plays
Petroleum Act, B.E. 2514 (1971) (as in Thailand’s electricity mix, CCS and CCUS
amended) (the “Petroleum Act”) which have the potential to be a key technology in
introduces the operation of carbon allowing the country to hit its
businesses. This will cover the approval decarbonization targets under the Paris
process, supervision, inspection, and Agreement. This shows that while CCS and
monitoring of CCUS operations in general. CCUS are not renewable technologies, they
Second, the draft ministerial regulation that can play a vital role in complementing and
will be issued in accordance with the accelerating the adoption of renewable
Petroleum Act will exclusively regulate CCUS energy.
business activities that are pertinent to the
operation of petroleum-related businesses. While these innovations are signi�icant, it is
Both the draft amendment to the Petroleum also important to note and address other
Act and the draft ministerial regulation could challenges that exist. To be widely adopted
potentially help prevent impacts and risks and effective, these technologies must
overcome challenges such as economic
Chandler MHM 25
Thailand’s Energy Transition – 2024 Outlook
implications, particularly the high costs per incorporated for residential use; for
ton of avoided CO2, the uncertainty example, electric vehicles with bidirectional
surrounding the long-term reliability of charging equipment can store solar power
storage sites, the energy overheads during generated from rooftop panels during the
the capture process, and the need for daytime for local consumption during off-
suitable storage locations. peak hours.
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Thailand’s Energy Transition – 2024 Outlook
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Thailand’s Energy Transition – 2024 Outlook
BESS will play a more integral role within hydrogen remain with the cost of production
Thailand's energy sector. and the demand for hydrogen generally.
However, with the development of cheaper
Hydrogen and more ef�icient electrolyzers, along with
Overview falling prices for renewable energy inputs,
green hydrogen production may become
In the pursuit of achieving decarbonization more commercially viable.
targets worldwide, the global hydrogen
market continues to grow rapidly, as It is projected that Southeast Asia has the
hydrogen provides an alternative means to potential to emerge as a key supplier for
fossil-fuels of holding or transporting energy hydrogen, whilst European countries are
in liquid or gaseous form. Further, hydrogen likely to be importers of hydrogen due to the
has the potential to be deployed in a number relatively limited availability of natural gas
of different settings, such as fuel for and renewable resources. 21 However,
transport, power generation, heating, steel Southeast Asian countries may seek to
manufacturing, and ammonia production. import technologies to develop green
The global demand of hydrogen is projected hydrogen from Europe, as well as North
to expand �ivefold by 2050. 20 America, Japan and China.
20 https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/oil-and- 21 https://www.pwc.com/gx/en/industries/energy-
gas/our-insights/global-energy-perspective- utilities-resources/future-energy/green-hydrogen-
2022?cid=other-eml-mtg-mip- cost.html.
mck&hlkid=9368c58eacb249b5bd378c69745b97c 22 https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Energy/
6&hctky=1926&hdpid=1601ca82-a599-4782- Thailand-s-PTT-to-invest-7bn-in-green-hydrogen-
a60e-364585a8538b. with-Saudi-�irm.
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Thailand’s Energy Transition – 2024 Outlook
23https://www.prachachat.net/economy/news- 24 https://www.nationthailand.com/business/
1340759. automobile/40021174.
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Thailand’s Energy Transition – 2024 Outlook
Thailand, EPPO has also initiated a hydrogen legal framework for hydrogen in Thailand is
sandbox, also known as the "Hydrogen in its early phases and will require further
Valley", in the Eastern Economic Corridor development, the policies and movement
zone to establish operating areas for the from Thai policymakers and regulatory
production and utilization of hydrogen. In bodies have demonstrated positive
the Hydrogen Valley, transportation systems perspective toward the potential of
of hydrogen, speci�ically pipelines leading to hydrogen while also presenting a modest
different stations, will be carried out for outlook for its future prospects. Once the
testing and the infrastructure for hydrogen Hydrogen Strategic Plan is implemented, the
will span across various sectors, including outlook for the hydrogen industry in
electricity, industry, and transportation. As Thailand may come into focus.
of the date of this report, the commencement
date for the Hydrogen Valley has not yet been
determined.
BOI incentives
Final thoughts
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Thailand’s Energy Transition – 2024 Outlook
ENVIRONMENT
In the wake of numerous global disruptions in recent years and growing environmental concerns,
Thailand is confronting these critical challenges while striving for economic progress. Because
the continued increase in emissions and the absence of eco-conscious practices have led to the
signi�icant degradation of the atmosphere, the urgency of addressing the climate crisis is a
mounting concern. Thailand has adopted several new environmental laws in recent years,
demonstrating its commitment to a sustainable future. Concurrently, Thailand’s commitment to
sustainable investment is also evident in its efforts to establish a taxonomy system, thus
simplifying environmentally-friendly economic ventures and �inancial products.
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Thailand’s Energy Transition – 2024 Outlook
The draft Climate Change Act would A GHG emission database system would be
introduce a climate change master plan (the established under the Draft Climate Change
“Climate Change Master Plan”) as a Act and would be generally available to the
framework to guide climate change efforts. public. This system would initially
The Climate Change Master Plan would be necessitate six government authorities,
broken into several sections, and include the namely the Ministry of Agriculture and
following: Cooperatives, the Ministry of Transport, the
Ministry of Natural Resources and
• duration of enforcement; Environment, the Ministry of Energy, the
• information on the national climate Ministry of Interior, and the Ministry of
situation including GHG emission Industry, to report to the DCCE on GHG
data; emissions from human activities at their
• climate change projections; source, stored GHG emissions, and net GHG
• climate change impact assessment; emission reductions as outlined in the
• GHG emission reduction targets; emission reduction plan. Each government
• guidelines for its implementation; of�ice will be authorised to request for more
• the private sector’s participation; information from the private sector, such as
• a budget estimate; and factory business operators, power business
• evaluation and reporting guidelines. operators, etc.
The climate change adaption plan would aim Carbon credit framework
to serve as a guideline for the formulation of
policies and measures to enhance resilience As global attention shifts to clean energy and
against the effects and risks of current and a low-carbon economy, businesses are
future climate change. It would encompass considering how carbon markets may help in
goals for adaptation, spanning areas such as achieving decarbonization targets. In this
water management, agricultural respect, Thailand's voluntary carbon market
sustainability, food security, tourism, offers a platform for companies to acquire
healthcare, natural resources management, carbon credits from independent projects
human stabilization, and rehabilitation. dedicated to reducing or eliminating
greenhouse gas emissions.
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Thailand’s Energy Transition – 2024 Outlook
Around the world today, there are generally Projects involving the planting, maintenance,
two types of carbon markets: regulatory conservation, and rehabilitation of forests as
compliance markets and voluntary markets. reservoirs of greenhouse gases in forestry
Regulatory compliance markets are legally areas or conserved forests owned by speci�ic
mandated, with consequences for failing to governmental authorities are regulated by
meet emission reduction targets and separate sets of regulations. Those in
bene�its for successful compliance. In forestry areas pursuant to the Forest Act, B.E.
contrast, voluntary carbon markets, like 2484 (1941), or national reserved forests
Thailand's, operate without any legal pursuant to the National Reserved Forest
requirement on companies to reduce Act, B.E. 2507 (1964), are governed by the
emissions, but rather, offer an independent Royal Forest Department Rules Re: Sharing
platform for GHG emission reduction of Carbon Credits from Planting,
projects. In Thailand, carbon credits are Maintenance, Conservation, and
tradable certi�icates representing the Rehabilitation of Forests in Forest Areas, B.E.
reduction, or removal of greenhouse gas 2564 (2021), while projects in national
emissions, typically on a tCO2eq basis. parks, forest parks, botanic parks,
arboretums, preservation zones or wildlife
Thailand – Voluntary Emission sanctuary zones are governed by the
Reduction Regulation of the Department of National
Parks, Wildlife and Plant Conservation Re:
Thailand Greenhouse Gas Management Sharing Carbon Credits from Planting,
Organization (“TGO”) is the sole agency Maintenance, Conservation, and
authorized to oversee and implement carbon Rehabilitation of Forests in Conserved Forest
credit activities in Thailand. TGO introduced Areas, B.E. 2564 (2021).
the Thailand – Voluntary Emission
Reduction (“T-VER”) Program to facilitate To operate projects in these areas, the
voluntary greenhouse gas reduction efforts project developer must obtain a license
across various sectors. Certi�ied carbon approved by the Department of National
credits generated through T-VER can be used Parks or the Royal Forest Department (as the
for offsetting emissions or trading within case may be) and coordinate with the
Thailand. T-VER project development respective departments to register the
consists of two main steps: (i) project project with TGO for participation in the T-
registration; and (ii) greenhouse gas VER to collect carbon credits.
certi�ication. Projects, including those in
forestry, agriculture, waste management,
renewable energy, and more, can be
registered with TGO by the project developer
submitting project design documents and
other required documentation. Certi�ication
involves a third-party Validation and
Veri�ication Body (“VVB”) auditing and
verifying the project’s legitimacy and
subsequent credit issuance. Once the
veri�ication process is completed, TGO will
grant certi�ication, recording the credits in a ©Khanchit Khirisutchalual via Ccanva.com
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Thailand’s Energy Transition – 2024 Outlook
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Thailand’s Energy Transition – 2024 Outlook
Summary
25David Boyd, Special Rapporteur on Human Rights Promotion and protection of all human rights, civil,
and the Environment. (2019), Issue of Human Rights political, economic, social and cultural rights,
Obligations relating to the enjoyment of safe, clean, including the right to development (A/HRC/40/55).
healthy and sustainable environment, Agenda item 3 Human Rights Council, United Nations.
Chandler MHM 35
Thailand’s Energy Transition – 2024 Outlook
penalties. Some key features of both of the Clean air standards and
bills are set out below. measurements
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Thailand’s Energy Transition – 2024 Outlook
The traffic light system takes into account the supporting role of each activity. For
instance, while solar power plants are typically classified as green, if a solar power
plant is primarily dedicated to supporting an end user that emits high levels of GHGs,
it may be categorized as a red activity.
Compliance In order to be considered taxonomy-aligned, projects or activities must also adhere
with the 'Do No to the DNSH principle and comply with MSS.
Significant
The DNSH principle's primary role is to ensure that an objective will not harm other
Harm'
objectives, whereas the MSS principle ensures that a given activity does not result in
principle
adverse social impacts. Even though Thailand Taxonomy Phase 1 will focus on
("DNSH") and
climate change mitigation as the sole objective in the pilot phase, the Thailand
minimum
Taxonomy aims to eventually cover broader range of objectives, including, among
social
others, climate change adaption and the transition to a circular economy. When these
safeguards
additional objectives are introduced, further DNSH criteria will be developed, and
("MSS")
projects must ensure compliance with all DNSH criteria for each of the objectives.
DNSH criteria and MSS require each project and activity to abide by: (i) the laws of
Thailand or the laws of the local jurisdiction where such activity takes place; and (ii)
relevant international conventions related to each objective of the taxonomy. For
I S I C s t a n d s f o r I n t e r n a t i o n a l S t a n d a rd I n d u s t ri a l
Classification. ISIC is a hierarchical classification system
which is a framework established by the United Nations.
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Thailand’s Energy Transition – 2024 Outlook
27 The Basel Convention on the Control of Transboundary Movements of Hazardous Wastes and their Disposal was
adopted on 22 March 1989 and came into force on 5 May 1992.
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Thailand’s Energy Transition – 2024 Outlook
LOOKING AHEAD
The predictions we made in the 2023 Outlook were all long-term assessments of the direction of
Thailand’s energy transition. Speci�ically, we foresaw that: (i) an increased reliance on LNG to
meet the country’s energy needs; (ii) the announcement of new renewable energy projects; and
(iii) the development of an EV ecosystem, would each be key themes driving the energy transition
in 2023. In 2024, these areas will remain important focal points in assessing the status and
direction of the energy transition.
Rather than attempting to predict any particular legal or policy development, we set out below
three areas where legal and policy developments could potentially have the largest impact in
2024:
• Adoption of the PDP and NEP. Since energy policy is still centrally coordinated in Thailand,
the announcement of a revised PDP and the over-arching NEP would have a major impact in
shaping the energy sector in 2024. A particular point to watch is the degree to which the
revised targets for renewable energy deployment will track the IEA’s recommendations on
necessary action to achieve Thailand’s NDCs.
• Progress on TPA Codes. The adoption of TPA Codes has the potential to allow for a vast
expansion of renewable energy projects outside of the government procurement model.
Demand for decarbonized energy is growing, and Thailand’s on-grid electricity mix is
increasingly seen as unattractive to multinational corporations with their own
decarbonization targets. Permitting the private procurement of electricity at a distance will
increase demand for renewables (particularly solar), and thus potentially increase
deployment beyond the levels contemplated in the PDP and NEP.
• Adoption of carbon pricing. Carbon pricing would accelerate the energy transition across all
sectors by incentivizing private actors to prioritize decarbonized energy and industrial
processes. Accelerated deployment of EV �leets, CCS, and greater procurement of electricity
from renewables are all foreseeable outcomes if a carbon tax or cap-and-trade mechanism
were adopted.
The energy transition is a multi-decade journey that is still in its initial phase. Thailand has started
the process of adopting policies, laws and regulations that will facilitate the move to a
decarbonized future, but there is still a long road ahead. Although its direction and speed are
uncertain, there are clear grounds for optimism that the energy transition will yield countless
opportunities for investors operating across a wide range of sectors.
Chandler MHM 39
Thailand’s Energy Transition – 2024 Outlook
AUTHORS
Chandler MHM 40
Chandler MHM advises leading Thai and international clients on a wide
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