PtX Global Perspectives and Viet Nam GH2 Insights

Overview of international trends and business

opportunities in the PtX economy

Dr. David Jacobs, 22 November, Hanoi

Agenda |

1. International Trends and Use Cases

2. Trends: Focus on Low-Hanging Fruits

3. Theoretical Hydrogen Demand in Vietnam

3 Power-to-X Technologies

Source: Power-to-X Hub -https://ptx-hub.org/how-ptx-works/

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International Trends and Use Cases

The Hydrogen Ladder
 Theoretically Green Hydrogen Can Be Used in Many Cases,
BUT…
Chemicals Desulphurisation Local Ferries Light Aviation Aviation
& Processes Fertiliser Bulk e-Fuels Shipping Aviation (jet fuel) & Shipping
Steel Biogas Upgrading Hydrocracking Coastal and River Vessels
Chemical Feedstock Methanol

Hydrogenation
Power Cars Light Trucks
System Regional Trucks 2 and 3-Wheelers
Long Duration Grid Balancing
Rural Trains Remote and Rural Trains
Generators Bulk Power Imports
Urban Delivery and Taxis Vintage and Muscle Cars
Island Grids Short Duration Grid Balancing
Long Distance Trucks and Coaches
Power Generation from Non-stored Hydrogen
Non-Road Mobile Machinery
UPS
High-Temperature Industrial Heat Metro Trains and Buses
Land
Mid/Low Temperature Industrial Heat Domestic Heating
Transportation
Source: Michael Liebreich/Liebreich Associates, Clean Hydrogen
Commercial Heating
Heat
Ladder, Version 5.0, 2023.Concept credit: Adrian Hiel, Energy Cities.

21.11.2023
 … Green Hydrogen Competes with Other Decarbonization
Options

▪ …Which are frequently less expensive: Battery storage, biomass…

Key: No real alternative Electricity/batteries Biomass/biogas Other
Unavoidable

A Fertiliser Hydrogenation Methanol Hydrocracking Desulphurisation

B Shipping* Jet Aviation** Chemical Feedstock Steel Long Duration Grid Balancing

C Coastal and river vessels Non-Road Mobile Machinery Vintage and Muscle Cars** Biogas Upgrading

D Long Distance Trucks and Coaches High-Temperature Industrial Heat Generators

E Regional Trucks Commercial Heating*** Island Grids Short Duration Grid Balancing

F Light Aviation Remote and Rural Trains Local Ferries Light trucks Bulk Power Imports UPS

Metro Trains and Buses Urban Delivery and Taxis 2 and 3-Wheelers Cars Bulk e-Fuels
G
Mid/Low-Temperature Industrial Heat Domestic Heating Power Generation Using Non-Stored Hydrogen

Source: Michael Liebreich/Liebreich Associates, Clean Hydrogen Ladder, Version 5.0, 2023.Concept credit: Adrian Hiel, Energy Cities. CC-BY 4.0

Uncompetitive
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Trends: Focus on Low-Hanging Fruits

Technologies with no Alternatives
To Reduce RISK, Focus on the Low-Hanging Fruits!
A Fertiliser Hydrogenation Methanol Hydrocracking Desulphurisation

▪ This includes use cases where no alternative solutions are on the horizons and
industries that already use hydrogen today!

▪ Chemical sector:

▪ Fertilizer production

▪ Industrial sector:

▪ Hydrocracking and desulfurization in refineries;

▪ These low hanging fruits (with no real alternatives) should be the focus of
any national clean hydrogen strategy!
High RISK Sector Should Not be The Priority in the First Years

▪ Other options are riskier because alternative solutions (direct electrification,

batteries, biomass) might eventually outcompete green hydrogen.

▪ This applies to using green hydrogen in:

▪ The transport sector and

▪ The electricity sector

▪ Instead, the evolution of costs of green hydrogen/ammonia and its

alternatives (direct electrification, battery costs, biomass costs) should
be monitored!
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Theoretical Hydrogen Demand Needs to

be Adjusted to Reality
Theoretical hydrogen Demand in Vietnam

▪ Theoretical maximum of 28,7 Mtpa of green hydrogen demand in Viet Nam

Source: IE
Theoretical hydrogen demand in Vietnam

▪ Theoretical maximum of 28,7Mtpa of green hydrogen demand in Viet Nam

▪ Current production of grey hydrogen in Vietnam: 0.5 million tonnes/year

▪ To produce 28 Mtpa of green H2, around 550GW of renewable electricity

generation capacity would be required!

▪ This would need to come on top of the renewable energy capacity required for
direct electrification/power generation!

▪ To make the green hydrogen/ammonia plans in Vietnam more credible, it is

necessary to reduce the projected demand in the electricity and transport
sector!
Source: XXx
The Role of Green Hydrogen/Ammonia in Future Power
Systems
▪ Especially important in countries with sharp seasonal variations:

▪ Low influx from low-cost solar PV and wind energy simultaneously over several
weeks and months, meaning that cheaper battery storage is not an option

▪ An countries with limited dispatchable clean energy/renewables:

▪ Limited hydro power, biomass, geothermal potential

▪ Serve as backup power plants (only used in emergency situations or not at all)

▪ Serve as peaking power plants (due to high fuel costs)

▪ Don’t assume to run “ammonia fired coal plant” in the same way as you
run coal plants today!
Ammonia Co-Firing in the Electricity Sector in a High Risk
Investment
▪ Ammonia co-firing in the electricity sector is not (yet) a proven solution:

▪ There are technical challenges (feasibility for co-firing higher shares)

▪ There are cost related challenges (high fuel costs, cost for retrofitting, etc.)

▪ There are energy security related challenges (import dependency)

▪ There are emissions-related challenges (low emission reduction impact)

▪ Ammonia (as a fuel) is significantly more expensive than coal (today).

▪ This will increase the LCOE co-firing power plants significantly.

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Policies for Green Hydrogen

Policies to Kick-Start the Green Hydrogen Economy

▪ Reduce the costs of hydrogen/close the cost gap:

▪ Contracts-for-differences

▪ Carbon pricing

▪ Reduce renewable energy cost (economies of scale)

▪ Prepare the infrastructure:

▪ Integrated planning of gas and electricity grid - Financing the national hydrogen grid
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Thank you very much

Dr. David Jacobs
Managing Director
IET – International Energy Transition